中国经济评论最新文献

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Urban fragmentation and innovation collaboration: Evidence from China 城市碎片化与创新协作：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102538

Fanghao Chen , Ruichi Xiong , Shan Zhao

This paper measures the urban shape of Chinese prefecture-level cities and examines the impacts of its fragmentation on local innovation activity. Using a harmonized satellite nightlight dataset from 1999 to 2021, we delineate urban areas as polygons formed by adjacent bright grids at night. We decompose changes in a city's urban shape into two components: the dispersion of individual polygons, and the fragmentation characterized by the growing spatial separation between these polygons. Our empirical analysis reveals that deteriorating urban shape, which typically results in longer commutes for individuals to meet, is associated with fewer local patent grants, with urban fragmentation being the primary driver. Mechanism analysis reveals that intensified urban fragmentation disproportionately impedes collaborative innovation, primarily by elevating communication costs within inventor teams. These findings highlight the pivotal role of optimized urban spatial structures in fostering face-to-face interactions and knowledge spillovers essential for innovation ecosystems.

本文对中国地级市的城市形态进行了测度，并考察了城市碎片化对地方创新活动的影响。利用1999年至2021年的统一卫星夜间灯光数据集，我们将城市区域划分为夜间相邻明亮网格形成的多边形。我们将城市形态的变化分解为两个组成部分：单个多边形的分散，以及这些多边形之间日益增长的空间分离所带来的碎片化。我们的实证分析表明，城市形态的恶化通常会导致个人通勤时间的延长，这与地方专利授权的减少有关，而城市碎片化是主要驱动因素。机制分析表明，城市碎片化加剧不成比例地阻碍了协同创新，主要是通过提高发明人团队内部的沟通成本。这些发现强调了优化的城市空间结构在促进面对面互动和知识溢出方面的关键作用，这对创新生态系统至关重要。

引用次数: 0

The missing rich households and wealth polarization in 21st century China 21世纪中国的富户缺失与财富两极分化

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102533

Yangcheng Yu , Shi Li , Qinghai Li

This study investigates the evolution of wealth polarization throughout the 21st century, using data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) and the Top Incomes in China (TIC) database. Our findings reveal a significant increase in polarization from 2002 to 2013, followed by a period of stabilization and signs of moderation by 2018. Decomposing polarization into alienation and identification, we observe that alienation (between group inequality) continues to rise from 2002 to 2018, while identification (within group cohesion) increases until 2013 but declines thereafter. The underrepresentation of rich households leads to an underestimation of alienation and an overestimation of identification. While these counterbalancing effects contribute to higher polarization levels, they do not alter the trend during the period. However, as the mitigating effect on identification diminishes and the growing effect on alienation intensifies, it suggests potential challenges in accurately tracking future changes in wealth polarization using survey data.

本研究利用中国家庭收入项目（CHIP）和中国最高收入（TIC）数据库的数据，探讨了整个21世纪财富两极分化的演变。我们的研究结果显示，从2002年到2013年，两极分化显著增加，随后是一段稳定时期，到2018年有缓和迹象。将两极分化分解为异化和认同，我们观察到异化（群体之间的不平等）在2002年至2018年期间持续上升，而认同（群体内部凝聚力）在2013年之前持续上升，但此后下降。富裕家庭的代表性不足导致了对异化的低估和对认同的高估。虽然这些抵消效应导致极化水平升高，但它们不会改变这一时期的趋势。然而，随着身份识别的缓解效应减弱，异化效应的增强，利用调查数据准确追踪财富两极分化未来变化的潜在挑战。

引用次数: 0

Budget rollover and year-end spending in China: evidence from public procurement contracts 中国的预算展期和年终支出：来自公共采购合同的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102522

Yuchen Guo , Pinghan Liang

This paper exploits the reform of China's Budget Law, which restricts the rollover of fiscal surplus across years, to examines the impact of UILI (use-it-or-lose-it) budget rules on year-end spending spikes. We analyze the universe of public procurement contracts from 2014 to 2021 and develop a method to assess contract quality. We show substantial surges in procurement contracts at the end of the year, which are more likely to be of low quality. The difference-in-difference model indicates that after the reform, local governments award 25.8 % more procurement contracts and double spending on procurement in the last month of the year. The year-end spending surges concentrate on goods and construction projects procurement, high-value contracts, and favor local suppliers. It is likely that UILI rules intensify budgetary uncertainty embedded in hierarchical allocation of fiscal fund.

本文利用中国预算法的改革来检验UILI（要么使用要么失去）预算规则对年终支出高峰的影响。我们分析了2014年至2021年的公共采购合同，并开发了一种评估合同质量的方法。我们发现，年底采购合同大幅增加，而这些合同更有可能是低质量的。差中差模型表明，改革后，地方政府在年度最后一个月的采购合同数量增加了25.8%，采购支出翻倍。年终支出激增主要集中在货物和建筑项目采购、高价值合同，并有利于当地供应商。UILI规则很可能会加剧财政资金分层分配中嵌入的预算不确定性。

引用次数: 0

Global monetary policy shocks and the adaptation of supply chains 全球货币政策冲击与供应链适应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535

Chang Li , Wei Li , Yuhui Shao

This paper examines how global monetary policy shocks (MPS) transmitted through trade networks affect supply chain adaptation of Chinese firms. When exposed to higher supplier-side MPS, firms experience significantly higher separation rates and lower foreign entry rates. Our findings remain robust across a range of alternative MPS measures. In response, firms shift their sourcing from high-interest-rate countries to low-interest-rate countries, but they do not re-shore. We show that trade credit and price adjustment by suppliers are important for explaining the restructuring. The disruption is more likely driven by customer decisions. Moreover, heterogeneities show that firms with stricter credit constraints are more sensitive to MPS, while longer-duration supply chain relationships show greater resilience. The supply chain adaptation induced by MPS also leads to adverse real economic outcomes for imports, exports, and profitability.

本文考察了通过贸易网络传导的全球货币政策冲击对中国企业供应链适应的影响。当面对更高的供应商方MPS时，公司会经历显著更高的分离率和更低的外国进入率。我们的研究结果在一系列替代MPS措施中仍然是强有力的。作为回应，企业将他们的采购从高利率国家转移到低利率国家，但他们不会将资源回流。我们发现贸易信贷和供应商的价格调整对解释结构调整很重要。这种颠覆更有可能是由客户的决定驱动的。此外，异质性表明，信贷约束更严格的企业对MPS更敏感，而持续时间更长的供应链关系表现出更大的弹性。MPS诱导的供应链适应也会对进口、出口和盈利能力产生不利的实际经济结果。

引用次数: 0

Has the county-to-district reform enhanced entrepreneurial activity? Evidence from emerging cities in China 区县改革是否促进了创业活动？来自中国新兴城市的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102504

Meiling Kang , Pengkun Deng , Zhongkuang Zhao

Using staggered-implemented Incorporating-Counties-into-Prefectures Policy as an exogeneous shock, this paper explores how urbanization promotes entrepreneurial activities. A battery of specifications verifies a positive effect of ICIP policy on firm entry. Mechanism analysis implies expanded market demand, increased supply of higher-quality production factors, and improved institutional environment help explain the phenomenon. Unlike market-driven urbanization in Western countries, this paper emphasizes the role of government-led urban expansion policies in developing nations, highlighting their potential to accelerate urbanization, industrial upgrading, and entrepreneurships in underdeveloped regions.

本文以错开实施的县县合并政策为异质冲击，探讨城市化如何促进创业活动。一系列规范验证了ICIP政策对企业进入的积极影响。机制分析表明，市场需求的扩大、高质量生产要素供给的增加和制度环境的改善有助于解释这一现象。与西方国家市场驱动的城市化不同，本文强调了发展中国家政府主导的城市扩张政策的作用，强调了它们在不发达地区加速城市化、产业升级和创业的潜力。

引用次数: 0

Does food recall strategy have a positive or negative effect on trust repair? Moderation analysis based on trust violation types and trust disposition 食品召回策略对信任修复有正面还是负面影响？基于信任违约类型和信任处置的中庸分析

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102512

Xiaoyan Wang , Jianyou Fu , Yixing Tian , Honghua Chen

Food recall is an important measure in food safety management. This study investigated the impact of food recall strategies on repairing consumer trust in food products. We examined three food recall strategies (voluntary, mandatory, and no recall) adopted by firms after discovering food defects. We designed a scenario-based experiment and used difference-in-differences (DID) models to analyze how these strategies influence consumer trust repair. Furthermore, we examined the moderating roles of trust violation type (competence vs. integrity) and consumer trust disposition. Our results show that both voluntary and mandatory recalls significantly enhance consumer trust in terms of competence, benevolence, and integrity. These findings contrast with previous studies and common consensus that food recalls tend to damage consumer perceptions. We also find that voluntary recalls are more effective than mandatory recalls for repairing consumer trust. Additionally, trust violation type and trust disposition moderate the effects of recall strategies on trust repair. These findings can help firms adopt the most effective trust repair strategies after discovering food defects, and assist regulators in restoring consumer confidence in food quality and safety.

食品召回是食品安全管理的一项重要措施。本研究探讨了食品召回策略对修复消费者对食品信任的影响。我们研究了三种食品召回策略（自愿、强制和不召回）采用的公司发现食品缺陷。我们设计了一个基于场景的实验，并使用差异中的差异（DID）模型来分析这些策略如何影响消费者信任修复。此外，我们还研究了信任违反类型（能力与诚信）和消费者信任处置的调节作用。我们的研究结果表明，自愿召回和强制召回都显著提高了消费者在能力、仁慈和诚信方面的信任。这些发现与之前的研究和普遍的共识形成对比，即食品召回往往会损害消费者的认知。我们还发现，在修复消费者信任方面，自愿召回比强制性召回更有效。此外，信任违反类型和信任处置调节回忆策略对信任修复的影响。这些发现可以帮助企业在发现食品缺陷后采取最有效的信任修复策略，并协助监管机构恢复消费者对食品质量和安全的信心。

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引用次数: 0

Background ambiguity and intertemporal choice: An experimental study on the effect of summer vacation 背景歧义与跨期选择：暑假影响的实验研究

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102574

Miao Jin , Jian Li , Juanjuan Meng , Jingwei Sun

This paper examines the role of background ambiguity in intertemporal choice. Using natural variation in background ambiguity from the uncertainty surrounding summer vacation and a within-subject difference-in-differences experimental design, we find that individuals tend to avoid allocating money to the summer period, leading to nonmonotonic changes in discount rates. To investigate the underlying mechanism, we exogenously increase summer planning efforts and find that this reduces perceived background ambiguity about summer and increases individuals' willingness to allocate money to that period. These findings suggest that background ambiguity plays an important role in shaping intertemporal preferences.

本文探讨了背景歧义在跨期选择中的作用。利用暑假周围不确定性背景模糊的自然变化和被试差异中差异实验设计，我们发现个体倾向于避免将资金分配到夏季，导致贴现率的非单调变化。为了研究潜在的机制，我们外生地增加了夏季计划的努力，并发现这减少了对夏季的感知背景歧义，并增加了个人将资金分配到该时期的意愿。这些发现表明，背景模糊性在形成跨期偏好中起着重要作用。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the special issue in honor of Martin Ravallion: Inequality, vulnerability and the middle-income trap 马丁·拉瓦里昂纪念特刊导言：不平等、脆弱性和中等收入陷阱

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102563

Shaohua Chen , Dominique van de Walle

引用次数: 0

The real effect of China's narrative Central Bank Communication 中国央行沟通叙事的真实效果

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102592

Liangyuan Chen , Jianhao Lin , Xia Wang , Zixiang Zhu

Unlike central banks in developed economies, the People's Bank of China (PBC) does not explicitly use forward guidance but rather provides explanatory information about monetary policy. The PBC has mainly used quarterly written reports and non-periodic oral channels to communication with the market, but there are significant differences in the institutional objectives and textual structures of these two types of communication. This paper investigates the real effects of the PBC's narrative on the macroeconomy. Our results show that the PBC's policy-related information can also guide inflation expectations and have a direct impact on the macroeconomy. The different macroeconomic effects between oral communication and written communication lies in their differences in timeliness, semantic complexity and ambiguity. Meanwhile, such explanatory communication can help the public understand policy stance, resist the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty, and thereby enhance monetary policy effectiveness. Finally, we find that oral communication has an increasingly significant impact on inflation expectations through variance decomposition.

与发达经济体的央行不同，中国人民银行（PBC）并不明确使用前瞻性指引，而是提供有关货币政策的解释性信息。中国人民银行主要通过季度书面报告和不定期口头渠道与市场进行沟通，但这两种沟通方式的制度目标和文本结构存在显著差异。本文考察了中国人民银行言论对宏观经济的实际影响。我们的研究结果表明，中国人民银行的政策相关信息也可以引导通胀预期，并对宏观经济产生直接影响。口头交际和书面交际在时效性、语义复杂性和歧义性方面的差异是其宏观经济效应的主要原因。同时，这种解释性沟通可以帮助公众理解政策立场，抵御经济政策不确定性的负面影响，从而提高货币政策的有效性。最后，通过方差分解，我们发现口头沟通对通胀预期的影响越来越显著。

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引用次数: 0

Political budget cycles, government size, and the allocation of public funds: Evidence from prefectures in China 政治预算周期、政府规模和公共资金分配：来自中国地级市的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102542

Jie Xiao , Qinghua Zhang , Brian Knight , Liutang Gong

We investigate political budget cycles in prefecture-level cities in China by leveraging cross-province variation in the timing of the Provincial Congress of the Communist Party, which is the most significant event for promoting and reappointing prefecture leaders. Our findings reveal strong evidence of a cyclical pattern, characterized by an increase in government spending leading up to the Congress, followed by a decrease afterward. This trend is particularly pronounced for infrastructure spending, which is a crucial driver of economic growth in China. Additionally, we examine China's multi-layer government hierarchy and explore heterogeneity across prefectures. Our analysis shows that these cycles are especially evident when promotion opportunities for prefecture leaders are most prominent. In terms of revenue sources, we do not observe significant cyclical patterns for in-budget revenues; however, we do find evidence of cycles in revenues from land sales, a vital source of off-budget revenues. Our study contributes to the literature by examining both the size of government and the allocation of public funds in order to uncover distinct political budget cycles at the prefecture level in China and highlighting the vertical incentives within the multi-layer government hierarchy.

我们的研究结果有力地证明了一种周期性模式，其特点是国会召开前政府支出增加，随后又减少。这一趋势在基础设施支出方面尤为明显，而基础设施支出是中国经济增长的关键驱动力。此外，我们考察了中国的多层政府层级，并探讨了地级市之间的异质性。我们的分析表明，当地方领导的晋升机会最突出时，这些周期尤为明显。就收入来源而言，我们没有观察到预算内收入的显著周期性模式；然而，我们确实发现了土地销售收入周期的证据，这是预算外收入的重要来源。我们的研究通过考察政府规模和公共资金分配来揭示中国地级不同的政治预算周期，并强调多层次政府层级中的垂直激励，从而为文献做出了贡献。

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