中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Introduction to the special issue in honor of Martin Ravallion: Inequality, vulnerability and the middle-income trap 马丁·拉瓦里昂纪念特刊导言：不平等、脆弱性和中等收入陷阱

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102563

Shaohua Chen , Dominique van de Walle

引用次数: 0

The impact of a large-scale chronic disease prevention and control program on the health benefits of older adults: Evidence from a natural experiment in China 大规模慢性病预防和控制项目对老年人健康益处的影响：来自中国自然实验的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102632

Qingshan Ma , Yuqing Han , Mingcong Chen , Feng Hu , Haiyan Zhou

Chronic diseases impose significant burdens on families and society because of high disability rates and costly treatments. Based on data from the 2014–2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this paper considers the establishment of National Demonstration Zones for Comprehensive Chronic Disease Prevention and Control (NDZCCDPCs) as a natural experiment, and explores the impact of this policy on the health of older adults by constructing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model. The findings indicate that NDZCCDPCs reduces the number of chronic diseases prevalent in older adults by 10.6 %, decreases the probability of ADL difficulty by 2.9 %, and reduces the probability of self-assessed poor health by 3.9 %. NDZCCDPCs achieves these health benefits through mechanisms such as preventive care and behaviors, and healthcare service provision and cost reduction. However, the positive health impact is smaller in areas facing higher fiscal stress, due to crowding-out effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive impact is more pronounced among older adults with lower levels of education and rural Hukou, and is more evident in areas with scarce medical resources. Finally, the benefits of establishing NDZCCDPCs outweigh the costs.

慢性病由于致残率高和治疗费用昂贵，给家庭和社会造成了沉重负担。基于2014-2020年中国老龄人口纵向社会调查（CLASS）的数据，本文将国家慢性病综合防治示范区（NDZCCDPCs）的建立作为一项自然实验，通过构建交错差中差（DID）模型，探讨该政策对老年人健康的影响。研究结果表明，NDZCCDPCs将老年人中流行的慢性病数量减少了10.6%，将ADL困难的概率降低了2.9%，将自我评估的健康状况不佳的概率降低了3.9%。NDZCCDPCs通过预防保健和行为、提供保健服务和降低成本等机制实现这些健康效益。然而，由于挤出效应，在面临较大财政压力的地区，积极的健康影响较小。异质性分析表明，在教育程度较低和农村户口的老年人中，积极影响更为明显，在医疗资源稀缺的地区更为明显。最后，建立NDZCCDPCs的收益大于成本。

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引用次数: 0

Invoicing currency and settlement currency: An empirical study and implications for RMB internationalization 计价货币与结算货币：人民币国际化的实证研究及启示

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102595

Tao Liu , Xiaosong Wang , Wing Thye Woo

This paper studies the relationship between invoicing currency and settlement currency in international trade. First we build a three-country model to highlight the various drivers of currency choices. Then, with a country-level dataset from 2011 to 2017, we confirm a positive feedback between the dual functions of international currencies. For example, in a country’s export, a 1% increase of USD as settlement (invoicing) currency would raise the USD share in invoicing (settlement) currency by 0.47% (0.27%). Such pattern largely holds for USD and EUR in various empirical specifications, but it is not robust for other currencies. We further discuss the implications for RMB, which has considerable international influence as a settlement currency but still lags behind as an invoicing currency.

本文研究了国际贸易中计价货币与结算货币的关系。首先，我们建立了一个三国模型，以突出货币选择的各种驱动因素。然后，使用2011 - 2017年的国家级数据集，我们证实了国际货币双重功能之间的正反馈。例如，在一个国家的出口中，美元作为结算（开票）货币每增加1%，美元在开票（结算）货币中的份额就会增加0.47%（0.27%）。在各种经验规范中，这种模式主要适用于美元和欧元，但对其他货币并不稳健。我们进一步讨论了对人民币的影响，人民币作为结算货币具有相当大的国际影响力，但作为发票货币仍然落后。

引用次数: 0

Valuation adjustment mechanisms and acquirer’s innovation under the new company law reform: Evidence from China 新公司法改革下的估值调整机制与收购方创新：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102604

Peng Zhang , Die Hu , Linjue Du

The new Company Law has outlined the fundamental principles governing valuation adjustment mechanisms (VAMs), making conditions stricter and responsibilities more clearly defined. Using data on VAMs signed in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of China's A-share market from 2010 to 2023, we find that VAMs negatively affect both the quantity and quality of acquirer innovation. These results remain robust across various tests, including double machine learning approaches. The negative effect stems from short-term profit targets imposed by VAMs, which encourage managers to cut R&D spending to boost accounting profits. At the same time, weak governance allows controlling shareholders to divert resources through equity pledges and tunnelling, further constraining innovation. Further analysis shows that the implementation of the new Company Law has significantly improved corporate governance by systematically clarifying the validity and enforcement conditions of VAMs.

新《公司法》概述了价值调整机制的基本原则，使条件更加严格，责任更加明确。利用2010 - 2023年中国a股市场并购并购中并购协议的数据，我们发现并购协议对并购方创新的数量和质量都有负向影响。这些结果在各种测试中仍然是稳健的，包括双机器学习方法。负面影响源于VAMs强加的短期利润目标，它鼓励管理者削减研发支出以提高会计利润。与此同时，治理薄弱使得控股股东可以通过股权质押和挖隧道的方式转移资源，进一步制约了创新。进一步分析表明，新《公司法》的实施通过系统地明确了VAMs的有效性和执行条件，显著改善了公司治理。

引用次数: 0

Transnational digital infrastructure and scientific collaboration: Evidence from the Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1) submarine cable 跨国数字基础设施和科学合作：来自亚非欧-1 （AAE-1）海底电缆的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102603

Han Li , Yuan Gao

This paper examines the impact of transnational digital infrastructure on international scientific collaboration. Based on data of Chinese researchers' collaborative papers from 2010 to 2023, we analyzed the impact of the operation of Asia-Africa-Europe-1 (AAE-1) submarine cable on research partnerships between China and the connected countries. The findings show that the AAE-1 cable has significantly boosted collaborative research activities. It not only facilitated the establishment of novel scientific collaborations but also enhanced the productivity of existing partnerships. Additionally, the enhanced connectivity led to an expansion in the size of research teams and a measurable increase in the citation impact of collaborative publications. The effects on collaboration were most pronounced for universities, collaborations in technology-related fields, and countries with historically lower publication outputs and less international bandwidth. These results highlight the pivotal role of high-quality digital infrastructure in fostering global scientific collaboration, especially in integrating developing countries and peripheral research communities into the global scientific ecosystem.

本文探讨了跨国数字基础设施对国际科学合作的影响。基于2010 - 2023年中国科研人员合作论文数据，分析了AAE-1海缆运营对中国与相关国家科研伙伴关系的影响。研究结果表明，AAE-1电缆显著促进了合作研究活动。它不仅促进了新的科学合作的建立，而且还提高了现有伙伴关系的生产力。此外，互联互通的增强导致了研究团队规模的扩大，并显著提高了合作出版物的引用影响。对合作的影响对大学、技术相关领域的合作以及历史上出版产出较低和国际带宽较少的国家最为明显。这些结果突出了高质量数字基础设施在促进全球科学合作方面的关键作用，特别是在将发展中国家和外围研究社区纳入全球科学生态系统方面。

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引用次数: 0

Audiovisual pesticide label: A digital expert to promote accurate pesticide use 视听农药标签：数字化专家，促进农药精准使用

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102600

Juhui Chen , Junfei Bai , Xi Lu , Yinghui Ma , Meng Zhou

Text-based pesticide labels have been widely proven to be dysfunctional in guiding and educating farmers on the proper use of pesticides in many developing countries. The existing studies, however, fail to explore more economically effective approaches for activating label information content. In this study, through a well-designed lab-in-the-field experiment, we propose and empirically verify that an audiovisual label affixed with a QR code encoded with a pesticide operation video can significantly reduce the overuse of pesticides by approximately 15% on average and improve dosage accuracy. Audiovisual labels not only decrease pesticide use among farmers already using labels but also encourage more farmers to follow label instructions, broadening the reduction in pesticide usage. The stronger effects are observed among farmers who distrust retailers but trust labels, as well as among those with relatively higher levels of education, suggesting that trust and education jointly shape the effectiveness of audiovisual labels.

在许多发展中国家，以文字为基础的农药标签已被广泛证明在指导和教育农民正确使用农药方面功能失调。然而，现有的研究未能探索更经济有效的激活标签信息内容的方法。在本研究中，我们通过精心设计的实验室现场实验，提出并实证验证了贴有农药操作视频编码的二维码的视听标签可以显著减少农药的过度使用，平均减少约15%，提高剂量准确性。视听标签不仅减少了已经使用标签的农民的农药使用，而且还鼓励更多的农民遵循标签说明，扩大减少农药使用的范围。在不信任零售商但信任标签的农民中，以及受教育程度相对较高的农民中，观察到更强的影响，这表明信任和教育共同塑造了视听标签的有效性。

引用次数: 0

Valuation adjustment mechanisms in venture capital and entrepreneurial firms' performance 风险投资估值调整机制与创业公司绩效

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102602

Yi Jiang , Zelong Tan , Ge Yang

The study examines the impact of a widely adopted contractual mechanism between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists (VCs)—the valuation adjustment mechanism (VAM)—on firm performance. We find that VAM agreements lead to a significant decline in firms' profitability. This effect is concentrated in firms that are imposed by accounting targets, especially annual performance targets in VAMs. The adverse impact of VAMs diminishes when firms are backed by more experienced VCs or when VCs hold a larger equity stake. In addition, we also document that the detrimental effect of VAMs is attributable to firms without any independent director. Our finding reveals that the decline in profitability is driven by aggressive expansion strategies, which increase both revenue and cost of goods sold, while diminishing gross profit margins. Moreover, firms with VAMs also cut R&D expenditures and are more likely to delist from the NTB in the long-run. Overall, our results suggest that VAMs exert significant short-term pressure on entrepreneurs and they have to use short-term-oriented expansion strategies that harm profitability and long-term sales growth. Our findings hold up to a battery of endogeneity tests and robustness checks, including the use of parallel trend assumption test, instrumental variables, propensity score matching, stacked DiD, and different sample periods.

本研究考察了企业家和风险资本家（vc）之间广泛采用的契约机制——估值调整机制（VAM）对公司绩效的影响。我们发现VAM协议导致企业盈利能力显著下降。这种影响主要集中在那些被会计目标，特别是VAMs的年度业绩目标所强加的公司。当公司得到更有经验的风投的支持或风投持有更大的股权时，VAMs的不利影响就会减弱。此外，我们还证明了VAMs的不利影响可归因于没有独立董事的公司。我们的发现表明，盈利能力的下降是由激进的扩张战略驱动的，这些战略增加了收入和销售成本，同时减少了毛利率。此外，拥有VAMs的公司也会削减研发支出，从长远来看，更有可能从NTB中退市。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，VAMs对企业家施加了显着的短期压力，他们不得不采用短期导向的扩张策略，这损害了盈利能力和长期销售增长。我们的研究结果经得起一系列内生性检验和稳健性检验，包括使用平行趋势假设检验、工具变量、倾向得分匹配、堆叠DiD和不同样本周期。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of household debt on the wealth distribution and inequality in China 家庭债务对中国财富分配和不平等的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102593

Xuanyu Zhang, Xiaoyun Fan

A recent Chinese household survey shows heterogeneous debt-to-income ratio (DIR) and debt-to-asset ratio (DAR). We analyze the cyclicality and time-lag properties of debt increment with respect to consumption and asset accumulation using econometric methods, and examine the effect of debt on wealth distribution in China by applying heterogeneous asset grids and idiosyncratic returns. The Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman problem solved with interpolation and nested-drift approaches suggests that debt relaxes the budget constraint but hinders asset accumulation among low-income/asset households, and the Gini index increases by around 0.11 in the presence of debt increment. We further demonstrate that the indirect effect of monetary policy via assets accounts for up to 20 percent of the total effect for households with high wealth endowments. However, the high DIR and DAR prevent the compensation of the indirect effect on output growth and consumption for households with low endowments, thereby decreasing the effectiveness of standard monetary policy.

最近的一项中国家庭调查显示，债务收入比（DIR）和债务资产比（DAR）存在异质性。本文运用计量经济学方法分析了债务增量相对于消费和资产积累的周期性和时滞特性，并运用异质性资产网格和特殊收益检验了债务对中国财富分配的影响。用插值和嵌套漂移方法求解的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman问题表明，债务放松了预算约束，但阻碍了低收入/资产家庭的资产积累，存在债务增量时基尼系数增加约0.11。我们进一步证明，对于拥有高财富禀赋的家庭，货币政策通过资产产生的间接效应占总效应的20%。然而，高DIR和DAR阻碍了对低禀赋家庭产出增长和消费的间接影响的补偿，从而降低了标准货币政策的有效性。

引用次数: 0

Supply network and firm innovation: Evidence from China 供应网络与企业创新：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102601

Xiao Deng , Shi-Ting He , Xinrui Lin , Junjie Tang

Successful innovations not only hinge on the firm's internal characteristics, but also closely relate to its involvement in supply networks. Unlike most previous studies that focus on the ego network surrounding a focal firm, our study expands the view to the entire nationwide supply network and investigates how a firm's network centrality facilitates its innovations. Leveraging a novel dataset on inter-firm relationships, we trace the evolution of the supply network among Chinese firms from 2007 to 2021. Our analysis demonstrates that firms with higher network centrality tend to devote more efforts to innovation and acquire more innovation outputs. Centrally positioned firms enjoy enhanced access to external financing and valuable information sharing. These advantages have contributed to the recent increase in internal innovation efforts by Chinese firms to mitigate the impact of U.S. economic sanctions.

成功的创新不仅取决于企业的内部特征，而且与企业参与的供应网络密切相关。与以往大多数关注焦点企业周围自我网络的研究不同，我们的研究将视野扩展到整个全国供应网络，并调查企业的网络中心性如何促进其创新。利用一个关于企业间关系的新数据集，我们追踪了2007年至2021年中国企业供应网络的演变。我们的分析表明，网络中心性越高的企业往往投入更多的创新努力，获得更多的创新产出。处于中心位置的企业更容易获得外部融资和有价值的信息共享。这些优势促使中国企业最近加大了内部创新力度，以减轻美国经济制裁的影响。

引用次数: 0

Does policy uncertainty affect firms' exchange rate exposure? Evidence from China1 政策的不确定性会影响企业的汇率风险敞口吗？来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102599

Qing He , Bailin Liang , Ce Zhang

Analyzing data from 3616 Chinese listed firms, we find a strong positive relationship between policy uncertainty and firms' exchange rate exposure. This result remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and addressing endogeneity issues. Notably, policy uncertainty's impact is significantly stronger for firms with a higher degree of international involvement and for poorly-governed firms. Interestingly, firms use financial hedging more intensively and reduce their operational hedging in high-uncertainty periods. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty exacerbates the impact of currency movements on firms' financial performance, as firms become increasingly involved in international operations. Consequently, firms should strengthen their corporate governance and make effective use of hedging tools.

通过对3616家中国上市公司的数据分析，我们发现政策不确定性与企业汇率风险之间存在很强的正相关关系。在控制宏观经济条件和解决内生性问题后，这一结果仍然稳健。值得注意的是，政策不确定性对国际参与程度较高的公司和治理不善的公司的影响要大得多。有趣的是，企业更频繁地使用金融套期保值，并在高不确定性时期减少其运营套期保值。我们的研究结果表明，随着企业越来越多地参与国际业务，政策不确定性加剧了货币变动对企业财务绩效的影响。因此，企业应加强公司治理，有效利用对冲工具。

引用次数: 0

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