中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Government linked companies (GLCs) and public private partnership (PPP) in the water sector in China: Political connection, utility performance and service quality 中国水务部门的政府关联公司（GLCs）和公私合作伙伴关系（PPP）：政治关系、公用事业绩效和服务质量

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102650

Xiaoting Zheng , Jiayu Wen , Xun Wu

Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) in essential infrastructure face persistent tensions between commercial viability and public service obligations, leading to widespread challenges in implementation and sustainability. In contrast, Government-Linked Companies (GLCs)—corporations with significant state ownership operating under market principles—have emerged as alternative social capital participants within China's PPP framework, offering a hybrid approach that combines state backing with market-based operations. This study applies principal–agent theory and analyzes a panel dataset of Chinese water utilities for 2000–2016 to assess how a GLC-involved hybrid governance structure influences financial and operational performance. The findings indicate that GLC involvement significantly enhances financial outcomes, increasing revenue by 9.2 % and profit by 98.6 %, while improving operational efficiency through strategic workforce management. These effects are particularly pronounced in regions with annual precipitation below 800 mm and in provinces with higher marketization indices, suggesting that GLCs are most effective where market institutions are stronger. By demonstrating how GLCs mitigate the governance challenges that have hindered traditional PPPs, this study highlights their potential as a sustainable infrastructure model that balances financial sustainability with public service commitments.

关键基础设施领域的公私伙伴关系（ppp）面临着商业可行性与公共服务义务之间的长期紧张关系，导致在实施和可持续性方面面临广泛挑战。相比之下，政府关联公司（glc）——在市场原则下运营的国有企业——已经成为中国PPP框架内的另一种社会资本参与者，提供了一种将国家支持与市场运作相结合的混合方式。本研究运用委托代理理论，分析了2000-2016年中国水务公司的面板数据集，以评估涉及glc的混合治理结构如何影响财务和运营绩效。研究结果表明，GLC的参与显著提高了财务结果，收入增加了9.2%，利润增加了98.6%，同时通过战略性劳动力管理提高了运营效率。这些影响在年降水量低于800毫米的地区和市场化指数较高的省份尤为明显，这表明在市场制度较强的地方，全球碳契约最有效。通过展示glc如何缓解阻碍传统公私合作的治理挑战，本研究强调了它们作为平衡财务可持续性与公共服务承诺的可持续基础设施模式的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Returns to college education of Chinese manufacturing employees: Who benefits more? 中国制造业员工回归大学教育：谁更受益？

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102665

Yuheng Lin , Dooruj Rambaccussing , Yu Zhu

Using the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) data, this study examines the returns to college education for employees across China's manufacturing industry, most of them work in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). Our baseline model finds that while the 1999 higher education (HE) expansion has no significant impact on college enrollment for male employees, it significantly increases college enrollment for female employees by 23.7% in the manufacturing sector. College education significantly increases the returns by 45.20% for males and 88.33% for females. Moreover, there is heterogeneity in the effects by potential gains: individuals who failed to attend college would have had a higher return compared to college graduates, indicating reverse selection into HE. Further analysis reveals that the effects are more pronounced among female managers, middle birth cohorts (born between 1984 and 1987), female vocation-track degree holders, and STEM graduates. Additionally, college education facilitates employment in roles requiring cognitive skills and reduces the likelihood of female employees performing physically demanding tasks.

本研究利用中国雇主-雇员调查（CEES）数据，考察了中国制造业员工的大学教育回报，这些员工大多在中小企业（SME）工作。我们的基线模型发现，虽然1999年高等教育的扩张对男性员工的大学入学率没有显著影响，但它显著提高了制造业女性员工的大学入学率，增幅为23.7%。受过大学教育的男性和女性的回报率分别显著提高了45.20%和88.33%。此外，潜在收益的影响存在异质性：与大学毕业生相比，未上大学的个人将获得更高的回报，这表明高等教育的逆向选择。进一步的分析表明，这种影响在女性管理人员、中等出生人群（出生于1984年至1987年之间）、女性职业学位持有者和STEM毕业生中更为明显。此外，大学教育促进了需要认知技能的职位的就业，减少了女性员工执行体力要求高的任务的可能性。

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引用次数: 0

Information disclosure and property value in China 中国的信息披露与财产价值

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102673

Jixiang Qiu , Yingdan Mei , Pengfei Liu , Xiaoning Su

This study examines the impact of air quality information disclosure on property values through the establishment of air quality monitoring stations under the “War on Air Pollution” initiative in China. This initiative aims to mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution by enhancing the accessibility, authenticity, and real-time air quality information. Our difference-in-difference model suggests that the air quality information disclosure leads to a 0.61% increase in surrounding property values based on the home transactions from 2012 to 2022. We confirm housing price capitalization arises from air quality disclosure and verify two underlying mechanisms of information scarcity and information accessibility. Moreover, we find that proactive government environmental initiatives, economic development, and population density enhance the positive effects of air quality information disclosure. The average welfare gain in property value is $2256 per home. Our findings contribute to the understanding of air quality information disclosure efforts and offer insights for environmental policy decisions.

本研究通过在中国“向空气污染宣战”倡议下建立空气质量监测站，考察了空气质量信息披露对房地产价值的影响。这一举措旨在通过提高空气质量信息的可及性、真实性和实时性来减轻空气污染的不利影响。我们的差中差模型表明，根据2012年至2022年的房屋交易，空气质量信息披露导致周边房地产价值增加0.61%。我们确认房价资本化源于空气质量信息披露，并验证了信息稀缺性和信息可及性的两个潜在机制。此外，我们发现积极的政府环保措施、经济发展和人口密度增强了空气质量信息披露的积极效应。每栋房屋的平均福利收益为2256美元。我们的研究结果有助于理解空气质量信息披露的努力，并为环境政策决策提供见解。

引用次数: 0

How does import expansion affect migrant labor wages: Evidence from China 进口扩张如何影响农民工工资：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102672

Kaijie Li , Dandan Dong , Bing Liu

The impact of import expansion on local labor markets in developing countries remains controversial. Migrant labor is pervasive in the labor markets of developing economies and is particularly vulnerable to import expansion shocks. This paper employs a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effect of import expansion on the wage of migrant labor and the wage gap between migrant and local workers, using individual data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) spanning from 2011 to 2018. The results indicate that import expansion has a significant negative impact on the wages of migrant labor. Specifically, considering the city with median import exposure per worker in 2017 as an example, a 100-yuan increase in import exposure per worker reduces the average hourly wage by 0.0712 to 0.291 yuan. Import expansion exerts a greater impact on the wages of low-skilled migrant labor and manufacturing labor, whereas positive wage effects for those employed in tradable sectors. Furthermore, import expansion widens the wage gap between migrant and local labor, while the skill premium is insignificant. Finally, mechanism analysis reveals that import expansion decreases total wage bills, total sales, the number of employees, and the number of firms, leading to lower wages for unstable migrant labor.

进口扩大对发展中国家当地劳动力市场的影响仍然存在争议。移民劳动力在发展中经济体的劳动力市场中普遍存在，尤其容易受到进口扩张冲击的影响。本文利用2011 - 2018年中国流动人口动态调查（CMDS）的个体数据，采用转移份额工具变量策略，研究进口扩张对农民工工资和农民工与本地工人工资差距的因果关系。结果表明，进口扩张对农民工工资有显著的负向影响。具体来说，以2017年人均进口敞口中位数的城市为例，人均进口敞口每增加100元，平均时薪就会下降0.0712元，达到0.291元。进口扩张对低技能移民劳动力和制造业劳动力的工资影响较大，而对贸易部门就业的工资影响为正。此外，进口扩张扩大了农民工与本地劳动力之间的工资差距，而技能溢价不显著。最后，机制分析表明，进口扩张降低了总工资账单、总销售额、雇员数量和企业数量，导致不稳定农民工的工资降低。

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引用次数: 0

Targeted environmental policy and public welfare: Evidence from fireworks deregulation in China 目标环境政策与公共福利：来自中国烟花管制的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102668

Jie Yang , Chu Wei , Renjun Shen , Tonghui Ji

Targeted environmental policies are vital for balancing ecological sustainability and socio-cultural practices. With rising public appeals for traditional customs, governments are reassessing the rationale for fireworks regulation as an anti-pollution measure. This study evaluates fireworks deregulation in specific districts and counties in China, analyzing its impacts on air pollution and public benefits. We find that fireworks deregulation significantly impairs air quality, although the decline remains within acceptable limits. Specifically, the average AQI meets government standards before and after deregulation, and pollution mainly occurs during holidays, in areas with high initial population density, high baseline pollution level, and in eastern regions. Further analysis shows that deregulation enhances subjective well-being and employment, and the quantified benefits at least offset the increased health expenditures. Overall, fireworks deregulation involves environmental costs but also generates meaningful social benefits. Our study offers insights to help targeted environmental governance balance ecological sustainability and traditional cultural preservation.

有针对性的环境政策对于平衡生态可持续性和社会文化实践至关重要。随着公众对传统习俗的呼声越来越高，政府正在重新评估将烟花管制作为一项反污染措施的理由。本研究评估了中国特定区县的烟花管制，分析其对空气污染和公共利益的影响。我们发现，放松烟花管制显著损害了空气质量，尽管下降幅度仍在可接受的范围内。其中，放松管制前后平均AQI均达到政府标准，污染主要发生在节假日、初始人口密度高、基线污染水平高的地区和东部地区。进一步分析表明，放松管制提高了主观幸福感和就业，量化的收益至少抵消了增加的卫生支出。总的来说，放松烟花管制会带来环境成本，但也会产生有意义的社会效益。本研究为有针对性的环境治理平衡生态可持续性和传统文化保护提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Information, pollution, and cognition: The impact of air pollution disclosure on aging minds 信息、污染与认知：空气污染信息披露对老龄化心理的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102664

Shaohui Wu , Ge Yin , Xin Zhang

This study is among the first to examine the impact of a pollution information disclosure (PID) program on the cognitive abilities of middle-aged and elderly individuals in a developing country. Leveraging China's rollout of PID as a quasi-natural experiment and using nationally representative survey data, we find that the adoption of PID mitigates the adverse effect of PM2.5 exposure on cognitive performance by 53.01%. This effect is enhanced by increased awareness of pollution risks and changes in health-related behaviors. Moreover, the impact is more pronounced among men, younger individuals, those with higher levels of education and income, internet users, and individuals living with their children.

这项研究是第一个研究污染信息披露（PID）计划对发展中国家中老年人认知能力影响的研究之一。利用中国推出的PID作为准自然实验，并使用具有全国代表性的调查数据，我们发现采用PID可将PM2.5暴露对认知表现的不利影响减轻53.01%。对污染风险认识的提高和与健康有关的行为的改变加强了这种影响。此外，这种影响在男性、年轻人、受教育程度和收入水平较高的人、互联网用户以及与子女同住的人身上更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Beauty and the business: Facial attractiveness and entrepreneurship 美貌与商业：外貌吸引力与创业精神

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102666

Jia Guo , Yijie Min , Ben Zhe Wang , Zhiming Cheng

We examine the relationship between facial attractiveness and entrepreneurship in China using survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). To address the endogeneity of attractiveness, we employ an instrumental variable (IV) strategy. The estimates show that a one-standard-deviation increase in interviewer-assessed attractiveness raises the probability of becoming an entrepreneur by 4.6 percentage points. The findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Mechanism analyses indicate that attractiveness facilitates entrepreneurship by enhancing entrepreneurial skills, easing access to finance, and increasing risk preference. The effect is stronger among individuals with lower human capital or those facing tighter institutional constraints. Furthermore, we find that attractiveness leads to better business outcomes, including being an employer entrepreneur and earning higher business profits.

我们使用来自中国家庭小组研究（CFPS）的调查数据来检验中国面孔吸引力与创业之间的关系。为了解决吸引力的内生性，我们采用了工具变量（IV）策略。估计表明，面试官评估的吸引力每增加一个标准差，成为企业家的可能性就会提高4.6个百分点。通过一系列稳健性检查，这些发现是稳健性的。机制分析表明，吸引力通过提高创业技能、放宽融资渠道和增加风险偏好来促进创业。这种效应在人力资本较低或面临更严格制度约束的个人中更为明显。此外，我们发现吸引力导致更好的商业成果，包括成为雇主企业家和获得更高的商业利润。

引用次数: 0

Integration of medical care and elderly care: Chinese experience and outcomes of older adults 医疗与老年护理的整合：中国老年人的经验与结果

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102641

Chunfeng Zhang , Xiaoyan Lei , Yutong Chen

Separated supply of medical and elderly care in China have been worrying issues especially in the aging era as medical needs and elderly care needs often interplay with each other among aged people. Utilizing panel data from CLHLS and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, this article examines China's 2016 nationwide pilot on integration of medical care and elderly care (IMEC) at city level. Results reveal that medical and elderly care integration significantly decreases one-year mortality of the elderly people. Further mechanism analysis shows that the IMEC policy likely benefits older adults through enhanced health outcomes, and extended delivery of medical care and elderly care. Our study emphasizes the critical importance of the integration of medical and elderly care for addressing the multifaceted needs of the aging population, providing a foundation for informed policy decisions and future interventions.

医疗和养老分开供应在中国一直是令人担忧的问题，特别是在老龄化时代，因为老年人的医疗需求和养老需求经常相互影响。本文利用CLHLS的面板数据和差异中的差异识别策略，对中国2016年全国城市层面的医疗和养老一体化试点进行了研究。结果显示，医养结合显著降低老年人一年死亡率。进一步的机制分析表明，IMEC政策可能通过改善健康结果、延长医疗服务和老年人护理的提供，使老年人受益。我们的研究强调了医疗和老年护理的整合对于解决老龄化人口的多方面需求至关重要，为明智的政策决策和未来的干预提供了基础。

引用次数: 0

Health, incentives, and retirement choice: A life-cycle analysis from China 健康、激励和退休选择：来自中国的生命周期分析

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102667

Chao Li , Han Cang

China's rapid population aging and ongoing pension reforms have fundamentally reshaped retirement behavior, yet the interaction between health dynamics and retirement incentives remains insufficiently understood. This paper develops a lifecycle model with endogenous retirement and health accumulation under the Basic Old-Age Insurance (BOAI) system calibrated to Chinese data. The model replicates observed retirement patterns and reveals that better health postpones retirement, while higher pension replacement ratios, amplified by a contribution-floor adjustment, encourage earlier labor exit, particularly for low-income workers. Health effects operate primarily through two channels: the income channel, where income decline increases the likelihood of triggering the adjustment mechanism and incentivizes early retirement; and the risk channel, where deteriorating health increases morbidity and mortality uncertainty and accelerates retirement. Counterfactual simulations reveal asymmetry in health effects: Lower personal account rate and individual productivity disproportionately affect unhealthy households, while increasing contribution rate primarily accelerates retirement among healthier workers.

中国快速的人口老龄化和正在进行的养老金改革从根本上重塑了退休行为，但健康动态和退休激励之间的相互作用仍未得到充分的了解。本文建立了基于中国数据的基本养老保险（BOAI）制度下具有内生退休和健康积累的生命周期模型。该模型重复了观察到的退休模式，并揭示了更好的健康状况推迟了退休时间，而更高的养老金替代比率（由于缴费下限调整而放大）鼓励劳动力提早退出，尤其是低收入工人。健康影响主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：收入渠道，其中收入下降增加了触发调整机制的可能性，并鼓励提前退休；以及风险渠道，健康状况恶化会增加发病率和死亡率的不确定性，并加速退休。反事实模拟揭示了健康效应的不对称性：较低的个人账户率和个人生产率不成比例地影响不健康的家庭，而提高缴费率主要加速了健康工人的退休。

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Waterway infrastructure, shipping endowment and regional economic geography: Evidence from the operation of the three gorges dam 水路基础设施、航运禀赋与区域经济地理——来自三峡大坝运行的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102642

Yuanbo Liang , Jingyang Fu , Xiao Teng , Xi Qu

This study contributes to the literature on infrastructure and economic geography by exploring how improved shipping conditions influence regional development. Using a unique township-level dataset and leveraging the operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) as a natural experiment, we show that enhanced waterborne transportation significantly promotes economic growth in port areas along the riverbanks. Mechanism analysis reveals that the TGD increased total freight volume by shifting freight composition toward waterborne transport, which induced water-transport-oriented industrial growth and generated larger gains for ports that initially had worse shipping conditions. Extension analysis shows that the regional economic hierarchy has strengthened after the operation of the TGD, suggesting that the reorganization of regional economic geography is likely associated with improvements in shipping endowments.

本研究通过探索改善航运条件如何影响区域发展，为基础设施和经济地理学的文献做出了贡献。利用独特的乡镇级数据集，并利用三峡大坝（TGD）的运行作为自然实验，我们表明，加强水运显著促进了沿江港口地区的经济增长。机制分析表明，三峡工程通过将货运构成向水运转移而增加了总货运量，从而促进了以水运为导向的工业增长，并为最初航运条件较差的港口带来了更大的收益。可拓分析表明，三峡库区运行后，区域经济层级增强，表明区域经济地理的重组可能与航运禀赋的提高有关。

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