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From Bullets to Balance Sheets: How Military Involvement in the Economy Shapes Leader Survival 从子弹到资产负债表:军事介入经济如何影响领导人的生存
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf082
Roya Izadi
From producing consumer goods to managing clubs, banks, and other for-profit firms, many militaries generate revenues that are not part of the military budget and are far removed from the realm of military affairs, and have adverse consequences for societies. Despite their significance, causes and consequences of such activities are largely unexplored. This article investigates the impact of military economic activities on propensity for coups. It argues that as the military expands its role in the economy, it gains both the incentives and opportunities to stage coups. However, this effect varies by rank. Military-run enterprises function as a double-edged sword: while they provide rent-seeking opportunities that reduce the likelihood of rebellion among mid- and low-ranking officers, they also embolden senior officers, for whom economic control becomes a political stake. Leaders may use economic privileges to co-opt mid and lower ranking officers, but as military builds more economic capital, senior officers become less dependent on civilian leadership and more likely to stage coups. Using an original dataset of over 2,800 economic enterprises owned/run by militaries for all countries from 1950 to 2020, I show that coup risk significantly increases as military economic involvement increases, and such coups are primarily led by senior officers.
从生产消费品到管理俱乐部、银行和其他以营利为目的的公司,许多军队产生的收入不属于军事预算,而且与军事事务领域相距甚远,并对社会产生不利影响。尽管这些活动意义重大,但其原因和后果在很大程度上尚未得到探索。本文研究军事经济活动对政变倾向的影响。它认为,随着军方扩大在经济中的作用,它获得了发动政变的动机和机会。然而,这种效果因等级而异。军方经营的企业是一把双刃剑:它们提供了寻租机会,降低了中低级别军官反叛的可能性,同时也让高级军官胆大起来,对他们来说,经济控制成了一种政治利益。领导人可能会利用经济特权来拉拢中低级军官,但随着军方积累了更多的经济资本,高级军官对文官领导的依赖程度越来越低,更有可能发动政变。使用1950年至2020年期间所有国家军队拥有/经营的2800多家经济企业的原始数据集,我表明,随着军事经济参与的增加,政变风险显着增加,而且此类政变主要由高级军官领导。
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引用次数: 0
Home Field Advantage: How Developer Identity Shapes Public Opinion about Energy Projects in Major Emerging Economies 主场优势:主要新兴经济体的开发商身份如何影响公众对能源项目的看法
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf078
Meir Alkon, Jennifer Hadden
Building new energy infrastructure in emerging economies is a key pillar of global sustainable development, with the current project pipeline encompassing both foreign and domestic-led projects. But despite widespread need, energy projects are frequently criticized and opposed by citizens. Drawing on a conjoint experiment fielded in three major emerging economies, we examine the behavioral foundations of the political process underlying energy infrastructure development and siting. This paper asks: how does the identity of the developer affect public opinion regarding energy infrastructure projects? We find that respondents strongly prefer domestic to foreign developers and express lower political support for politicians who bring in foreign-developed projects. Using statistical analyses and qualitative interviews, we establish the importance of concerns including pollution, employment, and project quality. These findings have implications for understanding public opposition to energy infrastructure as well as the role of international investment in accelerating the global green energy transition.
在新兴经济体建设新能源基础设施是全球可持续发展的关键支柱,目前的项目包括国外和国内主导的项目。尽管需求广泛,但能源项目经常受到市民的批评和反对。通过在三个主要新兴经济体进行的联合实验,我们研究了能源基础设施开发和选址背后的政治过程的行为基础。本文的问题是:开发商的身份如何影响公众对能源基础设施项目的看法?我们发现,受访者强烈倾向于国内开发商,而不是外国开发商,并且对引进外国开发项目的政治家表达了较低的政治支持。通过统计分析和定性访谈,我们确定了污染、就业和项目质量等问题的重要性。这些发现有助于理解公众对能源基础设施的反对,以及国际投资在加速全球绿色能源转型中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
From Differentiation to Nexus Governance—Dynamics of Change in the UN’s Inter-Institutional Governance of Terrorism and Violent Extremism 从分化到关联治理——联合国机构间恐怖主义和暴力极端主义治理的变化动态
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf081
Ann-Kathrin Rothermel
Despite far-reaching changes in the United Nations’ (UN) counterterrorism architecture, there has been only limited attention to what this means for global and inter-institutional governance dynamics. In this paper, I assess the evolution of the UN’s inter-institutional counterterrorism architecture since the early 2000s through a focus on institutionalized gendered logics between the UN’s three pillars of work—security, development, and human rights. The analytical approach combines postmodern discourse theory and feminist institutionalism to analyze the often informal and unspoken shifts in and across institutional discourses and practices, which are obscured by more traditional approaches to inter-institutional relations. Analyzing nearly 500 documents by 32 entities of the UN Global Counterterrorism Coordination Compact through an innovative combination of discourse analysis with Natural Language Processing tools, I identify changes towards a proliferation and hybridization of institutional discourses and a balancing of logics across the three pillars of work. I argue that these changes indicate a move away from a functionally differentiated mode of governance towards a more dynamic and networked cross-sectoral form of “nexus governance,” which offers explanations for both inter-institutional integration as well as a subtle, networked form of securitization.
尽管联合国的反恐架构发生了深远的变化,但人们对这对全球和机构间治理动态意味着什么关注有限。在本文中,我通过关注联合国工作保障、发展和人权三大支柱之间制度化的性别逻辑,评估了自21世纪初以来联合国机构间反恐架构的演变。这种分析方法结合了后现代话语理论和女权主义制度主义,分析了制度话语和实践中经常出现的非正式和未言明的转变,这些转变被更传统的制度间关系方法所掩盖。通过话语分析与自然语言处理工具的创新结合,我分析了联合国全球反恐协调契约32个实体的近500份文件,我确定了制度话语的扩散和混合以及跨三大工作支柱的逻辑平衡的变化。我认为,这些变化表明了从功能差异化的治理模式向更具活力和网络化的跨部门“关系治理”形式的转变,这为机构间整合和微妙的网络化证券化形式提供了解释。
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引用次数: 0
Generalizable Precedents at the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization: An Empirical Examination of the Busch–Pelc Conjecture 世界贸易组织上诉机构的可概括先例:对布施-佩尔克猜想的实证检验
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf080
Kazutaka Takechi
s This study investigates whether court decisions that incorporate strong sentiments are less likely to be cited in subsequent cases than other decisions as a result of low generalizability, as conjectured by Busch and Pelc. The empirical analysis reveals that decisions made by the Appellate Body at the World Trade Organization, featuring both positive and negative language, tend to be cited frequently. This finding remains robust even after controlling for time effects, novelty of issues, judicial activities of reports, outcomes of judgments, and political characteristics of the disputes. This indicates the intriguing aspect of the World Trade Organization as an international court in which rhetorical methods help shape case law through frequent citations.
这项研究调查了是否像Busch和Pelc推测的那样,由于较低的概括性,包含强烈情绪的法院判决在随后的案件中比其他判决更不可能被引用。实证分析表明,世界贸易组织上诉机构的裁决,无论是积极的还是消极的,都倾向于被频繁引用。即使在控制了时间效应、问题的新颖性、报告的司法活动、判决结果和争端的政治特征之后,这一发现仍然是强有力的。这表明了世界贸易组织作为一个国际法庭的有趣方面,其中修辞方法通过频繁引用来帮助塑造判例法。
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引用次数: 0
Gender in International Bureaucracies: Evidence from UN Field Missions 国际官僚机构中的性别:来自联合国外地特派团的证据
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf076
Katharina P Coleman, Joshua Fawcett Weiner, Kseniya Oksamytna, Jessica Di Salvatore
Contemporary international organizations, including the UN, employ tens of thousands of staff outside of their headquarters in field offices around the world. Despite attempts to promote gender equity, significant differences persist in male and female officials’ experiences of working in UN field offices and missions. Drawing on a series of internal surveys of UN field staff, we demonstrate that, relative to men, women report having worse relationships with peers, supervisors, and management as well as having less confidence in performance appraisal mechanisms. Through a qualitative analysis of survey comments, archival materials, and semi-structured interviews, we highlight distinct gendered dynamics of working in field offices that affect international bureaucrats’ workplace experiences.
包括联合国在内的当代国际组织在其总部以外的世界各地的外地办事处雇用了数万名工作人员。尽管努力促进性别平等,但男女官员在联合国外地办事处和特派团的工作经历仍然存在显著差异。根据对联合国外地工作人员的一系列内部调查,我们表明,与男性相比,女性与同事、主管和管理层的关系更差,对绩效评估机制的信心也更低。通过对调查评论、档案材料和半结构化访谈的定性分析,我们强调了影响国际官僚工作经历的外地办事处工作的明显性别动态。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Democracy 概率民主
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf067
Muhammet A Bas, Randall W Stone
Democracy is an important concept that is difficult to measure, and existing measures have well-known weaknesses. We define democracy narrowly, as electoral accountability, and estimate the probability of democracy using a structural model and data from 1945 to 2008. We allow for strategic voting and find evidence that voters are intimidated into supporting authoritarian leaders. Ratification of the Convention Against Torture by the country in question emboldens voters, while ratification by third parties, close relations with the USA and the incumbent’s military experience increase voter intimidation. Our estimated democracy scores are highly correlated with other measures frequently used in political science and come with important advantages, including conceptual clarity, replicability, out-of-sample score prediction, flexibility with respect to the variables and specifications used in the estimation model, estimates of uncertainty, and avoiding potential expert bias.
民主是一个难以衡量的重要概念,而现有的衡量标准存在众所周知的弱点。我们将民主狭义地定义为选举问责制,并使用结构模型和1945年至2008年的数据来估计民主的概率。我们允许策略性投票,并找到证据表明选民受到恐吓而支持威权领导人。有关国家批准《禁止酷刑公约》使选民更加大胆,而第三方的批准、与美国的密切关系以及现任总统的军事经验增加了选民的恐吓。我们估计的民主得分与政治学中经常使用的其他措施高度相关,并具有重要的优势,包括概念清晰度,可复制性,样本外得分预测,估计模型中使用的变量和规范的灵活性,不确定性估计以及避免潜在的专家偏见。
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引用次数: 0
Reconnecting Evidence and Theory: Building Knowledge from the Ground Up 重新连接证据和理论:从头开始构建知识
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf077
Marijke Breuning
This International Studies Association Presidential Address argues that international studies needs to rethink the field’s identity, and its value to students and society—an issue that is urgent due to the challenges facing higher education. International studies has long valued theory and theoretical paradigms over the careful evaluation of theory on the basis of evidence. The address argues that the incentive structure that encourages this focus on theory is misguided. It also argues that the field’s identity, value, and future do not depend on this focus on theory and theoretical paradigms. Instead, the field’s identity, value, and future depend on a willingness to center evidence-based, theory-informed scholarship. The address argues that the proposed redirection would alter the role of theory in the field, rather than make it obsolete. Evidence-based, theory-informed scholarship places theory in the service of an evidence-based understanding of phenomena in global politics and advances knowledge—offering value to students and society.
这份国际研究协会主席演讲认为,国际研究需要重新思考该领域的身份,以及它对学生和社会的价值——由于高等教育面临的挑战,这是一个紧迫的问题。长期以来,国际研究一直重视理论和理论范式,而不是在证据的基础上对理论进行仔细评估。演讲认为,鼓励这种对理论的关注的激励结构是错误的。它还认为,该领域的身份、价值和未来并不依赖于对理论和理论范式的关注。相反,该领域的身份、价值和未来取决于以证据为中心、以理论为基础的学术研究的意愿。报告认为,拟议的重新定向将改变理论在该领域的作用,而不是使其过时。以证据为基础,以理论为基础的学术研究将理论用于对全球政治现象的基于证据的理解,并为学生和社会提供知识价值。
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引用次数: 0
Reconsidering the Relationship between CBI and FIX 重新思考CBI与FIX的关系
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf074
David H Bearce, Ana Carolina Garriga
s This research note reconsiders the question of whether central bank independence (CBI) and fixed exchange rates (FIX) function as substitutes or complements. We argue that these monetary institutions have neither served as substitutes nor performed as complements for either inflation control or exchange rate stability. In terms of their substitutability, our statistical evidence shows that while CBI has been used for inflation control, FIX has been more directed toward exchange rate stability using updated datasets with these monetary institutions measured both on a de jure and de facto basis with nearly global country/year coverage from 1970 to 2020. In terms of their complementarity, our results also demonstrate that CBI was not more effective at reducing inflation when paired with greater FIX, and FIX was not more effective at promoting exchange rate stability when paired with greater CBI. If anything, both are less effective when paired with the other monetary institution.
本研究报告重新考虑了中央银行独立性(CBI)和固定汇率(FIX)是替代还是互补的问题。我们认为,这些货币机构既没有作为通货膨胀控制或汇率稳定的替代品,也没有作为补充。就其可替代性而言,我们的统计证据表明,虽然CBI已被用于通货膨胀控制,但FIX已更直接地用于汇率稳定,使用更新的数据集,这些数据集与这些货币机构一起在法律上和事实上的基础上测量,涵盖了1970年至2020年的几乎全球国家/年。就它们的互补性而言,我们的研究结果还表明,当CBI与更大的FIX配对时,CBI在降低通货膨胀方面并不更有效,而FIX与更大的CBI配对时,在促进汇率稳定方面并不更有效。如果有什么区别的话,那就是两者在与另一种货币机构合作时效果较差。
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引用次数: 0
Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes 用一点点热情来谈判棘手的问题?为什么领土冲突中的和平进程往往产生不完整的结果
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf072
Meri Dankenbring, Iris Volg, Constantin Ruhe
There is widespread consensus in peace research that territorial conflicts are more enduring and difficult to settle than non-territorial conflicts. However, theoretical explanations for this relationship vary. We apply a new conceptual framework to integrate existing explanations into a broader theory. We highlight how earlier work suggests alternative mechanisms: either actors in territorial intra-state conflicts are less willing to compromise at the negotiation table, or the most relevant negotiation issues on the table in territorial conflicts are particularly difficult. This theoretical argument directly translates into a statistical model, enabling us to measure and compare the latent compromise propensity and the relative difficulty of negotiated provisions in territorial versus non-territorial conflicts. In a preregistered analysis, we find that comprehensive peace agreements are less likely in territorial civil wars because provisions primarily relevant in territorial conflicts are particularly difficult. Further analyses show that territorial conflicts also have a lower overall compromise propensity than government conflicts, but specific context characteristics in territorial conflicts explain this difference.
在和平研究中有一个广泛的共识,即领土冲突比非领土冲突更持久,更难以解决。然而,对这种关系的理论解释各不相同。我们应用一个新的概念框架,将现有的解释整合到一个更广泛的理论中。我们强调了早期的工作是如何提出替代机制的:要么是领土内部冲突中的行为者不太愿意在谈判桌上妥协,要么是领土冲突中最相关的谈判问题特别困难。这一理论论点直接转化为统计模型,使我们能够衡量和比较领土冲突与非领土冲突中谈判条款的潜在妥协倾向和相对难度。在一项预先登记的分析中,我们发现在领土内战中不太可能达成全面和平协定,因为主要与领土冲突有关的条款特别困难。进一步分析表明,领土冲突的整体妥协倾向也低于政府冲突,但领土冲突的特定语境特征解释了这种差异。
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引用次数: 0
Can International Advocacy Rally Public Support for Human Rights Sanctions? Experimental Evidence from the United States 国际倡导能让公众支持人权制裁吗?来自美国的实验证据
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaf075
Ryan Yu-Lin Liou
Human rights organizations regularly publicize abuses and shame repressive regimes. But can such human rights messaging effectively mobilize public support for sanctions against these regimes? This study examines whether and under what conditions international advocacy influences citizens’ willingness to support sanctions. I hypothesize that advocacy effectiveness depends on who delivers the message, what type of violation is reported, and how the response is framed. I fielded a preregistered survey experiment with a sample of 2,204 Americans, varying the type of rights violation (physical integrity vs. empowerment rights), the advocacy messenger (UN Special Rapporteur vs. Human Rights Watch), and the sanctions framing (unilateral vs. multilateral). Results show that advocacy messages can increase public support for sanctions, but effects vary significantly across conditions. First, UN messaging produces robust effects, while Human Rights Watch messaging shows weaker and less consistent impacts. Second, messages describing physical integrity abuses generate strong support, while empowerment rights violations fail to mobilize public opinion. Contrary to expectations, multilateral framing does not significantly increase support. These findings advance our understanding of transnational advocacy by identifying the conditions under which international actors can effectively mobilize public backing for human rights enforcement and when advocacy efforts may fall short.
人权组织经常公布虐待行为,并对专制政权表示羞耻。但是,这种人权信息能有效地动员公众支持制裁这些政权吗?本研究考察国际宣传是否以及在何种条件下影响公民支持制裁的意愿。我推测,倡导的有效性取决于谁传递信息,报告了什么类型的违法行为,以及如何做出回应。我对2204名美国人进行了一项预先登记的调查实验,改变了侵犯人权的类型(人身安全与赋权权利),倡导信使(联合国特别报告员与人权观察)以及制裁框架(单边与多边)。结果表明,倡导信息可以增加公众对制裁的支持,但不同条件下的效果差异很大。首先,联合国的信息产生强大的影响,而人权观察的信息则显示出较弱且不一致的影响。其次,描述人身侵犯的信息会得到强有力的支持,而赋权侵权行为却无法调动公众舆论。与预期相反,多边框架并没有显著增加支持。这些调查结果通过确定国际行动者有效动员公众支持人权执法的条件以及倡导工作可能不足的情况,增进了我们对跨国倡导的理解。
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引用次数: 0
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International Studies Quarterly
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