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Traditional Authorities and Strategies in Demands for Self-Determination 民族自决诉求中的传统权威与策略
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae134
Clara Neupert-Wentz, Friederike Luise Kelle
Ethnic groups employ different strategies to pursue demands for self-determination. While some act within conventional channels of political contestation, others choose non-conventional strategies, including violence and rebellion. We conceive of this as a result of bargaining between group and state and argue that both sides’ institutions affect the likelihood of escalation. Specifically, groups with traditional authorities have the capacity and incentives to escalate conflicts. Only when such institutions are matched with internal accountability mechanisms can groups credibly commit so that bargaining failure and violence less likely. Similarly, states with open elections can tie their hands more effectively, and constitutional regulations of traditional authorities formalize state-group interactions, which also mitigates the effect of traditional authorities on conflict. We use new global data on groups that demand self-determination, their traditional political institutions, and their strategy choice from 2005 to 2015. We find support for our argument using various identification and estimation approaches. Groups with traditional authorities are much more likely to use violence, a finding that is not sensitive to the omission of unobserved confounders. Furthermore, this relationship is moderated by group-level audience costs and the strategic environment provided by the state. Our findings advance new perspectives on the interactions of customary and national institutions in determining subnational conflict.
各民族采用不同的策略来追求自决的要求。一些人在传统的政治斗争渠道内行动,另一些人则选择非传统的策略,包括暴力和叛乱。我们认为这是团体和国家之间讨价还价的结果,并认为双方的制度都会影响升级的可能性。具体来说,拥有传统权威的群体有能力和动机使冲突升级。只有当这些机构与内部问责机制相匹配时,团体才能可信地承诺,从而减少谈判失败和暴力的可能性。同样,实行公开选举的国家可以更有效地束缚自己的手脚,传统权威机构的宪法规定使国家与集团的互动正式化,这也减轻了传统权威机构对冲突的影响。我们使用了2005年至2015年要求自决的群体、其传统政治制度和战略选择的全球新数据。我们使用各种识别和估计方法来支持我们的论点。拥有传统权威的群体更有可能使用暴力,这一发现对未观察到的混杂因素的遗漏并不敏感。此外,这种关系受到群体层面的受众成本和国家提供的战略环境的调节。我们的研究结果对习惯机构和国家机构在确定次国家冲突方面的相互作用提出了新的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Preferential Trade Agreements and Leaders’ Business Experience 优惠贸易协定和领导人的商业经验
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae129
Nicola Nones
Many theories attempt to explain the determinants of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their design. Existing accounts, however, focus almost exclusively on structural or domestic factors and ignore individual leaders. In this paper, I develop and test novel theoretical claims regarding executive leaders’ prior career in business and their trade cooperation policy once in office. I construct a new dataset on the heads of the executive’s business managerial experience and test my main claims in a time-series-cross-sectional setting covering 185 countries from 1948 to 2009. To establish causality, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy and leverage exogenous transitions due to sudden deaths or terminal illness in office. The results show that businesspersons-turned-politicians are more likely to enter PTAs and are more likely to sign deeper PTAs. The relationship is further investigated in an illustrative case study of the 1988—Canada trade deal. The substantive effect of business experience is comparable to that of established factors in the literature, such as regime type, and is robust to numerous tests, specifications, subsamples, and measurements of business experience.
许多理论都试图解释优惠贸易协定及其设计的决定因素。然而,现有的理论几乎只关注结构性因素或国内因素,而忽略了领导人个人。在本文中,我就行政领导人之前的商业生涯及其上任后的贸易合作政策提出了新的理论主张,并对其进行了检验。我构建了一个关于行政首长商业管理经验的新数据集,并在 1948 年至 2009 年间 185 个国家的时间序列横截面环境中检验了我的主要观点。为了确定因果关系,我采用了工具变量策略,并利用了因在任期间突然死亡或身患绝症而导致的外生转变。结果显示,商人转为政治家更有可能加入 PTA,也更有可能签署更深入的 PTA。通过对 1988 年加拿大贸易协定的案例研究,我们进一步探究了两者之间的关系。商业经验的实质性影响可与文献中的既定因素(如制度类型)相媲美,并且在众多测试、规格、子样本和商业经验测量中都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Evidence for Theories of Contagious Civil Unrest 传染性内乱理论的因果证据
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae124
Rebekah Fyfe, Bruce Desmarais
Many types of civil unrest, including protest, violent conflict, and rebellion, have been found to be subject to both inter- and intra-state contagion. These spillover effects are conventionally tested through the application of parametric structural models that are estimated using observational data. Drawing on research in methods for network analysis, we note important challenges in conducting causal inference on contagion effects in observational data. We review a recently developed non-parametric test—the “split-halves test”—that is robust to confounding and apply the test to replication data from several recent studies in which researchers tested for contagion in civil unrest. We find that about half the time findings in the published literature fail to replicate with the split-halves test. Across ten total replications, we do not see strong patterns in terms of which results do and do not replicate. We do, however, find evidence for general contagion in six of the replications, indicating that contagion is a prevalent phenomenon in civil unrest. As such, we recommend that researchers (1) use the split-halves test as a general-purpose robustness check for parametric models of contagion in the study of civil unrest, and (2) consider modeling contagion in research on civil unrest.
人们发现,许多类型的内乱,包括抗议、暴力冲突和叛乱,都会在国家之间和国家内部蔓延。这些溢出效应通常是通过使用观测数据估算的参数结构模型进行检验的。通过对网络分析方法的研究,我们注意到在观察数据中对传染效应进行因果推断所面临的重要挑战。我们回顾了最近开发的一种非参数检验方法--"分裂-哈尔夫斯检验"--它对混杂因素具有稳健性,并将该检验方法应用于最近几项研究中的复制数据,在这些研究中,研究人员检验了内乱中的传染效应。我们发现,在已发表的文献中,约有一半的研究结果无法通过分裂-半数检验进行复制。在总共十次复制中,我们没有发现哪些结果可以复制,哪些结果不可以复制的强烈模式。不过,我们确实在其中六次重复中发现了普遍传染的证据,这表明传染是内乱中的一种普遍现象。因此,我们建议研究人员:(1)在研究内乱时,将分裂半球检验作为对传染参数模型的通用稳健性检验;(2)考虑在内乱研究中建立传染模型。
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引用次数: 0
Democracy and Clustered Models of Global Economic Engagement 民主与全球经济参与的集群模式
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae130
ByungKoo Kim, Iain Osgood
One of the most fundamental economic policy choices a society makes is how to order its global economic relations. What models do states use to structure this multifaceted decision, and how do they choose among these alternatives? We combine data on trade policies, foreign investment, exchange rates, capital flows, and international treaties to discover states’ strategies of global economic engagement. We identify five distinct strategies through dynamic clustering. We then examine the economic and political drivers of states’ choices among these competing strategies, focusing on the tradeoffs between public and private goods activated by differing styles of openness. In particular, we uncover a model of high global integration favored by (party-based) nondemocracies that emphasizes sacrificing consumption for production and embraces the risk of tight integration with global markets. We also uncover a cautious model of partial globalization favored by (large) democracies. Decisions over global economic engagement are clustered and multidimensional: Uncovering this variety unlocks new findings about the nonlinear effects of democracy on foreign economic policy.
一个社会所做的最基本的经济政策选择之一就是如何安排其全球经济关系。各国采用什么模式来构建这一多方面的决策,又是如何在这些备选方案中做出选择的呢?我们结合贸易政策、外国投资、汇率、资本流动和国际条约等方面的数据,探究各国的全球经济参与战略。我们通过动态聚类确定了五种不同的战略。然后,我们研究了国家在这些相互竞争的战略中做出选择的经济和政治驱动因素,重点关注不同开放风格所激活的公共产品和私人产品之间的权衡。特别是,我们发现了(以政党为基础的)非民主国家青睐的高度全球一体化模式,这种模式强调牺牲消费来换取生产,并接受与全球市场紧密结合的风险。我们还发现了一种谨慎的部分全球化模式,这种模式受到(大型)民主国家的青睐。关于参与全球经济的决策是集群的、多维的:揭示了这一多样性,就能发现民主对对外经济政策的非线性影响的新发现。
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引用次数: 0
Transnationalism and Populist Networks in a Digital Era: Canada and the Freedom Convoy 数字时代的跨国主义与民粹主义网络:加拿大与自由车队
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae131
Jean-Christophe Boucher, Lauren Rutherglen, So Youn Kim
s The growth and success of right-wing populist movements globally has been remarkable since the early 2010s. Indeed, populist parties in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and North America have received tremendous electoral success, shaping a movement for the people and by the people within the political sphere. To what extent do populist movements influence other such programs across national borders? Research has suggested that globalization has facilitated the spread of populist ideology. Transnational populism emphasizes the “people” as a “horizontal, membership-based collective with membership premised on an in/out logic between nations, allowing populist national movements to engage and share a global ideological program. This paper seeks to understand and measure to what extent populism has become a transnational movement and identify how populism moves across national borders through online political participation. To explore this question, we collected over 6.7 million digital trace data on X/Twitter during Canada’s January–February 2022 Freedom Convoy movement. Receiving support from thousands of citizens, the Freedom Convoy revealed the ability of populist ideology to move aimlessly across international borders. We used a deep-learning model applied to text analysis to implement a classification task to measure populist narratives during the movement.
自 2010 年代初以来,右翼民粹主义运动在全球的发展和成功令人瞩目。事实上,欧洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和北美洲的民粹主义政党在选举中取得了巨大成功,在政治领域形成了一场民有、民治的运动。民粹主义运动在多大程度上影响了跨国界的其他此类计划?研究表明,全球化促进了民粹主义意识形态的传播。跨国民粹主义强调 "人民 "是一个 "横向的、以成员资格为基础的集体,其成员资格以国家间的进出逻辑为前提,这使得民粹主义国家运动能够参与并分享全球意识形态计划。本文试图了解和衡量民粹主义在多大程度上已成为一种跨国运动,并确定民粹主义如何通过网络政治参与跨越国界。为了探讨这一问题,我们在加拿大 2022 年 1 月至 2 月的 "自由车队 "运动期间,在 X/Twitter 上收集了 670 多万条数字跟踪数据。自由车队得到了成千上万公民的支持,它揭示了民粹主义意识形态漫无目的地跨越国际边界的能力。我们使用了一种应用于文本分析的深度学习模型来执行分类任务,以衡量运动期间的民粹主义叙事。
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引用次数: 0
Human Rights Promotion and Democratic Allies 促进人权与民主同盟
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae122
Yasuki Kudo
s Do military alliances promote human rights? Scholars and practitioners generally believe they do not because states form alliances largely to advance their strategic interests and thus are not interested in members' domestic policies. I claim that some states may care about their allies' human rights practices. Specifically, democracies are concerned that alliance relationships with rights-abusing governments harm their reputation, and thus urge their allies to improve human rights. However, this rights-promoting motivation is constrained because democracies also need to preserve alliance partnerships with governments that may rely on repression for their internal security. Empirical analyses of alliance relationships between democracies and autocracies provide support for this argument. Autocracies with a powerful democratic ally implement relatively advanced human rights protection; however, this association becomes weaker as the risk of domestic conflict becomes higher. These findings suggest the importance of considering democratic allies in the international promotion of human rights.
s 军事联盟促进人权吗?学者和实践者普遍认为不会,因为国家结盟主要是为了推进其战略利益,因此对盟友的国内政策不感兴趣。我认为,一些国家可能会关心其盟友的人权实践。具体来说,民主国家担心与践踏人权的政府结盟会损害自己的声誉,因此会敦促盟国改善人权状况。然而,这种促进人权的动机也会受到限制,因为民主国家也需要维护与那些可能依靠镇压来保障国内安全的政府的同盟关系。对民主政体与专制政体之间联盟关系的经验分析为这一论点提供了支持。拥有强大民主盟友的专制国家会实施相对先进的人权保护;然而,随着国内冲突风险的增加,这种关联性也会减弱。这些研究结果表明,在国际上促进人权时必须考虑民主盟友。
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引用次数: 0
Tribalocracy: Tribal Wartime Social Order and Its Transformation in Southern Syria 部落民主制:叙利亚南部部落战时社会秩序及其变革
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae133
Abdullah al-Jabassini
This article introduces a new phenomenon in the study of civil war: tribal wartime social order. The proposed theory of tribalocracy, or tribal rule, integrates insights from civil war studies, anthropology, and sociology to provide a nuanced account of social order and its transformation in tribal warzones. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in the Hauran region in southern Syria, the proposed theory explains how endogenous rebel groups, seeking to maximize a wide range of benefits rendered by tribal shaykhs, refrain from establishing a new form of order. Instead, they co-opt, reassert, and operate under a pre-existing order in reserve. In so doing, rebels rule minimally, leaving most of the local affairs in the hands of civilian actors closely monitored by tribal shaykhs. Given the fluid and volatile nature of wartime order, the proposed theory offers a compelling explanatory framework to account for the transition in the forms of wartime social order from a civilian model to one dominated by rebels. The theory and empirical results expand our understanding of the localized and kinship-based forms of solidarity, the origins of rebel organizations, the source of wartime social order, civilian agency, and the roles played by tribal shaykhs under rebel rule.
本文介绍了内战研究中的一个新现象:部落战时社会秩序。所提出的部落民主或部落统治理论综合了内战研究、人类学和社会学的观点,对部落战区的社会秩序及其转变进行了细致入微的阐述。根据在叙利亚南部豪兰地区进行的广泛实地调查,所提出的理论解释了内生反叛团体如何寻求最大限度地利用部落首领提供的各种利益,从而避免建立新形式的秩序。相反,他们在原有的后备秩序下共同采纳、重申和运作。这样一来,叛军的统治力度就降到了最低,大部分地方事务都交由受到部落首领密切监视的平民行动者处理。鉴于战时秩序的多变性和不稳定性,所提出的理论为解释战时社会秩序形式从平民模式向叛军主导模式的转变提供了一个令人信服的解释框架。该理论和实证结果拓展了我们对团结的地方化和以亲属关系为基础的形式、叛军组织的起源、战时社会秩序的来源、平民代理以及部落首领在叛军统治下扮演的角色的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Outsourcing Empire: International Monetary Power in the Age of Offshore Finance 外包帝国:离岸金融时代的国际货币权力
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae123
Andrea Binder
Offshore finance allows foreign banks to create US dollars under the laws of an offshore jurisdiction. How and why does this affect international monetary power? Conceptually, I argue that offshore finance bifurcates across borders the shared power of the state and banks to create money, combining the US dollar with mostly English law. Empirically, I demonstrate that more US dollars are created offshore outside US jurisdiction than onshore within it. Offshore finance increases liquidity, at higher risk, and leads to a cross-border entanglement of issuing country, offshore financial centers, borrowers, and global banks. In short, offshore finance changes the power inherent in money. Consequently, international monetary power has become the ability to get access to offshore dollars in combination with the capacity to determine international liquidity and to set, select, or circumvent the related rules. It is constrained by the hierarchically organized social credit relations that money consists of. The international monetary power of the United States has become an instance of indirect rule with global banks having been delegated the prerogative of US dollar creation. As is common with indirect rule, it entails a difficult balancing act between geographical reach and centralization of power.
离岸金融允许外国银行根据离岸司法管辖区的法律创造美元。这如何以及为什么会影响国际货币权力?从概念上讲,我认为离岸金融将国家和银行创造货币的共同权力进行了跨界分叉,将美元与大部分英国法律结合起来。从经验上看,我证明了在美国管辖范围之外的离岸创造的美元比在美国管辖范围之内的在岸创造的美元要多。离岸金融以更高的风险增加了流动性,并导致发行国、离岸金融中心、借款人和全球银行之间的跨境纠葛。简而言之,离岸金融改变了货币的内在力量。因此,国际货币权力变成了获取离岸美元的能力,以及决定国际流动性和制定、选择或规避相关规则的能力。它受制于货币所包含的等级森严的社会信用关系。美国的国际货币权力已成为间接统治的一个实例,全球银行已被授予创造美元的特权。正如间接统治所常见的那样,它需要在地理范围和权力集中之间进行艰难的平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Learning to Fight Together: UN Peacekeeping Coalitions and Civilian Protection 学会共同战斗:联合国维和联盟与平民保护
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae118
Michael A Morgan, Daniel S Morey
Since the end of the Cold War, the United Nations has increasingly used peacekeeping operations (PKOs) to manage crises between and within states. The mandates of contemporary PKOs are demanding, calling on peacekeeping personnel to separate belligerent parties, enforce ceasefire agreements, and protect the physical security of civilians. The pursuit of these distinct objectives presents a unique challenge for the UN because it relies on member states to volunteer personnel for these missions. Therefore, the achievement of mandated goals depends on the ability of diverse national contingents to overcome coordination problems and function as a cohesive force. Integrating research of PKOs and international military coalitions, we argue that as national contingents share operational experience within a UN mission, they develop common institutional practices, and become more effective at protecting the civilian population. Using monthly data on UN PKOs from 1990 to 2019, we find that increasing operational experience within a peacekeeping coalition reduces civilian fatalities significantly.
自冷战结束以来,联合国越来越多地利用维和行动(PKOs)来管理国家之间和国家内部的危机。当代维和行动的任务要求很高,需要维和人员隔离交战各方、执行停火协议并保护平民的人身安全。实现这些不同的目标给联合国带来了独特的挑战,因为联合国依靠会员国自愿派遣人员执行这些任务。因此,能否实现授权目标取决于不同国家的特遣队能否克服协调问题并作为一支有凝聚力的部队发挥作用。结合对维和行动和国际军事联盟的研究,我们认为,随着各国特遣队在联合国特派团中分享行动经验,他们会形成共同的制度惯例,从而更有效地保护平民。利用 1990 年至 2019 年联合国维和行动的月度数据,我们发现,维和联盟内行动经验的增加会显著减少平民死亡人数。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience and Domination: Resonances of Racial Slavery in Refugee Exclusion 复原与统治:难民排斥中的种族奴役共鸣
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae116
Luke Glanville
We are encouraged to think of refugees as resilient people with agency and capacity for flourishing, rather than passive victims needing help. This framing purports to uphold and celebrate refugees’ humanity. But some scholars worry that it problematically serves to demand resilience from refugees, normalize their displacement, and legitimate state bordering practices. This article builds on this critique by examining how powerful actors have long attributed resilience to vulnerable others to legitimate domination and control. I focus on the deployment of resilience-talk by white enslavers and their supporters to justify Black enslavement in the American South. Their philosophical, climatological, and epidemiological arguments about the resilient Black slave were supplemented with a claim that Black people could not survive liberation in the American North. I probe the resonances of this resilience-talk with contemporary invocations of the resilience of refugees in the Global South, and their supposed non-resilience in the Global North.
我们被鼓励将难民看作是有韧性的人,他们有力量和能力实现繁荣,而不是需要帮助的被动受害者。这种观点旨在维护和赞美难民的人性。但一些学者担心,这种观点会产生问题,即要求难民具有复原力,将他们的流离失所正常化,并使国家的边界做法合法化。本文在这一批判的基础上,研究了长期以来强势行为者如何将弱势人群的复原力归因于合法的统治和控制。我将重点放在白人奴役者及其支持者为证明美国南部黑人被奴役的合理性而使用的复原力言论上。他们从哲学、气候学和流行病学的角度论证了黑人奴隶的抗逆能力,并声称黑人无法在美国北方获得解放。我探究了这种复原力言论与当代对全球南部难民复原力以及他们在全球北部所谓的非复原力的援引之间的共鸣。
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引用次数: 0
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International Studies Quarterly
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