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Political Regimes and Refugee Entries: The Preferences and Decisions of Displaced Persons and Host Governments 政治制度与难民入境:流离失所者和东道国政府的偏好和决定
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae077
Masaaki Higashijima, Yujin Woo
s What drives refugee movements? Focusing on host countries' domestic political institutions, we argue that refugee entry is determined by the political regimes that shape the incentives of both host governments and displaced persons. Specifically, we theorize that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between political regimes and the volume of refugee entries. When the host country is autocratic, refugee volume becomes smaller due to displaced persons’ unwillingness to risk the high uncertainty of life under such regimes, and when the host country is democratic, refugee volume is similarly curbed due to democratic constraints on the host government. Consequently, a majority of refugees are clustered into anocratic regimes. Using a global dataset, a series of statistical analyses found strong evidence in support of our theoretical expectations regarding not only the hypothesized correlation between regime type and refugee movements but also the preferences of host governments and displaced persons that we theorize underlie this relationship.
是什么推动了难民的流动?我们以收容国的国内政治体制为重点,认为难民入境是由政治体制决定的,而政治体制则决定了收容国政府和流离失所者的动机。具体来说,我们认为政治体制与难民入境数量之间存在倒 "U "型关系。当收容国是专制国家时,由于流离失所者不愿意冒在这种政权下生活的高度不确定性的风险,难民数量就会减少;而当收容国是民主国家时,由于收容国政府受到民主约束,难民数量同样会受到抑制。因此,大多数难民都集中在专制政权中。利用全球数据集进行的一系列统计分析发现,不仅政权类型与难民流动之间存在假设的相关性,而且东道国政府和流离失所者的偏好也支持我们的理论预期。
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引用次数: 0
Spiral to Surveillance: The Effect of INGOs on Levels of Peacekeeper Misconduct 监视的螺旋:国际非政府组织对维和人员不当行为程度的影响
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae072
Morgan Barney, Kellan Borror
s Over the last twenty years, the international relations literature has sought to understand the conditions in which peacekeeping operations (PKOs) occur and the efficacy of their presence. Much work has focused on PKOs’ relationship to civilians in civil conflict, but less is understood about the influences on peacekeeping missions’ quality. If PKOs commit human rights abuses, how might other actors deter exploitive PKO behavior in the domestic context? We argue international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) provide a monitoring and socializing effect on PKOs. Using the Peacekeeper Attributes (PKAT) and Transnational Social Movements (TSMO) datasets, we analyze peacekeeping missions from 2007 to 2013. Through zero-inflated negative binomial regression, we found that the presence of general INGOs decreases rates of misconduct, and human rights INGOs decrease rates of misconduct. However, we find that the presence of women’s rights-focused INGOs does not decrease rates of sexual misconduct among PKO troops.
s 在过去的二十年中,国际关系文献一直在试图了解维和行动(PKOs)发生的条件及其存在的效力。许多研究集中于维和行动与国内冲突中平民的关系,但对维和特派团质量的影响因素了解较少。如果维和行动有侵犯人权的行为,那么其他行动者如何在国内环境中阻止维和行动的剥削行为?我们认为,国际非政府组织(INGOs)对维和行动具有监督和社会化的作用。利用维和人员属性(PKAT)和跨国社会运动(TSMO)数据集,我们分析了 2007 年至 2013 年的维和任务。通过零膨胀负二项回归,我们发现一般国际非政府组织的存在会降低不当行为发生率,而人权国际非政府组织会降低不当行为发生率。然而,我们发现关注妇女权利的国际非政府组织的存在并不会降低维和部队中的不当性行为发生率。
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引用次数: 0
Taking Civilians: Terrorist Kidnapping in Civil War 绑架平民:内战中的恐怖绑架
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae074
Blair Welsh
Why do insurgents resort to kidnapping in civil war? What explains variation in the selection and intensity of the tactic over time and space? Despite an increase in the use of kidnapping over time, existing research has yet to develop an explanation that explains spatiotemporal variation and extends beyond financial motivations. I argue the decision to kidnap hostages is shaped by insurgents’ behavioral interactions in the conflict environment. It occurs under two conditions: to generate support and reinstate bargaining capacity when organizations suffer military losses on the battlefield and to enforce loyalties and display strength when organizations face violent competition from other non-state actors. The observable implications of the theory are tested at the macro- and micro levels. At the macro-level, I conduct a quantitative cross-group analysis on over 200 organizations involved in an armed intrastate conflict (1989–2018). At the micro level, I consider the kidnapping strategy of the Taliban in Afghanistan over time and space (2010–2018). Taken together, the analyses provide robust support for the theory.
叛乱分子为何在内战中诉诸绑架?是什么解释了这种战术的选择和强度在时间和空间上的变化?尽管随着时间的推移,绑架的使用越来越多,但现有的研究还没有发展出一种能解释时空变化并超越经济动机的解释。我认为,绑架人质的决定是由叛乱分子在冲突环境中的行为互动决定的。绑架人质发生在两种情况下:当组织在战场上遭受军事损失时,为了获得支持和恢复谈判能力;当组织面临其他非国家行为者的暴力竞争时,为了加强忠诚和展示实力。我们从宏观和微观两个层面检验了这一理论的可观察意义。在宏观层面,我对参与国内武装冲突(1989-2018 年)的 200 多个组织进行了跨组定量分析。在微观层面,我考虑了塔利班在阿富汗的绑架战略的时间和空间(2010-2018 年)。综合来看,这些分析为该理论提供了强有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Child Victims and the Punishment of UN Peacekeepers for Sexual Exploitation and Abuse 儿童受害者与惩治性剥削和性虐待的联合国维和人员
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae063
Audrey L Comstock
s A growing subset of peacekeeping literature focuses on explaining peacekeeper sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) of civilians within postconflict protection. However, what happens after the abuse has received limited attention. Most of the time, peacekeepers do not receive any type of punishment following abuse allegations. What explains why peacekeepers are punished for abuse allegations? I argue that the presence of child victims increases the chances that peacekeepers are punished. Two mechanisms are highlighted through which the presence of child victims increases the chance of punishment: (i) the increased moral and legal obligation of UN member states to protect children and (ii) the increased shaming and media focus on child victims, which heightens public focus. The empirical analyses of UN and Troop-Contributing Country punishment actions between 2007 and 2017 provide robust support for the argument that the presence of child victims increases peacekeeper punishment. This research builds on studies of SEA, peacekeeping dynamics, and victimhood.
s 越来越多的维和文献侧重于解释维和人员在冲突后保护工作中对平民的性剥削和性虐待(SEA)。然而,虐待发生后的情况受到的关注有限。大多数情况下,维和人员在受到虐待指控后不会受到任何形式的惩罚。是什么原因导致维和人员因虐待指控而受到惩罚?我认为,儿童受害者的存在增加了维和人员受到惩罚的机会。我强调了儿童受害者的存在会增加惩罚机会的两个机制:(i) 联合国会员国保护儿童的道德和法律义务增加;(ii) 对儿童受害者的羞辱和媒体关注增加,从而提高了公众的关注度。对 2007 年至 2017 年期间联合国和部队派遣国惩罚行动的实证分析为儿童受害者的存在会增加维和人员惩罚的论点提供了有力支持。这项研究建立在对海难、维和动态和受害者身份的研究基础之上。
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引用次数: 0
Transient States and Timeless Ties: (In)Formality, Power Networks, and the EU Mission in Kosovo 短暂的国家与永恒的联系:(不)正式性、权力网络和欧盟驻科索沃特派团
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae055
Siddharth Tripathi, Solveig Richter
State-building by external actors can be understood as a practice of intervention in post-conflict spaces characterized by convergences and contestations between different actors striving for power and legitimacy. Informal non-state (armed) groups and clientele networks profit from the contingencies during transition and “capture” emerging formal state institutions to secure private gains and public positions. Order in this newly formed state is established through a dynamic process involving both external actors and domestic power networks. Most of the literature on intervention either focuses on top-down effects of external actors or resistance by local actors, thus falling short of describing the timeless ties of post-war networks and individuals in their day-to-day interaction patterns. How can we then understand the interaction and collusion between post-conflict power networks and external “statebuilders”? We use Bourdieu’s concept of the field to examine the local spaces of interventions and argue that interventions are social and relational practices characterized by day-to-day routines and overlapping, yet co-existing modes of formal and informal interactions. Empirically, we rely on qualitative social network analysis and interviews to visibilize these social practices and collusion between external actors and power networks in Kosovo and its impact on “state-building” efforts by the international community.
外部行为体的国家建设可以理解为对冲突后空间进行干预的一种做法,其特点是不同行为体之间为争取权力和合法性而进行的交融与竞争。非正规的非国家(武装)团体和客户网络从过渡时期的突发事件中获利,并 "占领 "新兴的正规国家机构,以确保私人利益和公共地位。新成立国家的秩序是通过外部参与者和国内权力网络共同参与的动态过程建立起来的。大多数关于干预的文献要么关注外部行动者自上而下的影响,要么关注地方行动者的抵制,因此无法描述战后网络和个人在日常互动模式中的永恒联系。那么,我们如何理解冲突后权力网络与外部 "建国者 "之间的互动与勾结呢?我们利用布迪厄的 "场域 "概念来考察干预行动的当地空间,并认为干预行动是一种社会和关系实践,其特点是日常例行工作以及正式和非正式互动模式的重叠和共存。在实证研究中,我们依靠定性社会网络分析和访谈来揭示这些社会实践、科索沃外部行动者与权力网络之间的勾结及其对国际社会 "国家建设 "努力的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Fear or Anger? Leaders’ Childhood War Trauma and Interstate Conflict Initiation 恐惧还是愤怒?领导人的童年战争创伤与国家间冲突的引发
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae069
James D Kim
How does a leader’s childhood exposure to war influence their propensity to initiate conflicts? While much research explains leaders’ national security policies using their combat and rebel experiences, few scholars have examined the effects of childhood wartime violence. I develop and test two competing arguments about the effects of childhood war trauma on future conflict behavior. One argument expects that leaders exposed to war at a young age will be less likely to initiate conflict because they fear its consequences. An alternative perspective expects that these leaders are more likely to initiate conflict out of anger and a desire for revenge. I test my hypotheses using an original dataset and a research design that reduces inference barriers. Leveraging variations in the level of violence experienced during wartime, I only compare leaders who were exposed to foreign military invasions as children. I find that those who experienced severe war trauma, such as family deaths, injuries, or displacement, are less likely to initiate interstate conflicts than those who did not experience such traumatic events. These effects are substantial, particularly when political constraints are weak. My results suggest that childhood war trauma has a long-term impact on leaders’ conservatism about using force.
领导人童年时期的战争经历如何影响他们发起冲突的倾向?虽然很多研究利用领导人的战斗和叛乱经历来解释其国家安全政策,但很少有学者研究童年战争暴力的影响。关于童年战争创伤对未来冲突行为的影响,我提出并检验了两个相互竞争的论点。一种观点认为,幼年时期经历过战争的领导人会因为害怕战争的后果而减少发起冲突的可能性。另一种观点则认为,这些领导人更有可能出于愤怒和复仇的欲望而发起冲突。我使用原始数据集和减少推论障碍的研究设计来验证我的假设。利用战争期间所经历的暴力程度的差异,我只比较了那些在孩童时期遭受过外国军事入侵的领导人。我发现,那些经历过严重战争创伤(如家人死亡、受伤或流离失所)的领导人发起国家间冲突的可能性要低于那些没有经历过此类创伤事件的领导人。这些影响是巨大的,尤其是在政治约束较弱的情况下。我的研究结果表明,童年的战争创伤会对领导人使用武力的保守性产生长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Military Training and Socialization: An Examination of Human Capital and Norm Transmission Between Allies 外国军事训练与社会化:考察盟国之间的人力资本和规范传播
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae040
Sándor Fábián, Andrew Boutton
s Foreign military personnel routinely participate in educational and cultural programs administered by the U.S. military. In addition to bolstering the capacity of the recipient military, one of the primary goals of these programs is to professionalize the military of the recipient state. It is hoped not only that the soldiers will internalize norms of human rights and democracy themselves but also that they will become influential members of the military in the future. Existing cross-national research, along with selective anecdotes of U.S.-trained soldiers leading coups and rebellions, suggests that military aid may be ineffective. To date, however, a nuanced understanding of the more granular effects of military aid on the recipient country has been hindered by a lack of data and a focus on the macro-level. We address this lacuna by examining norm transmission among a sample of the Hungarian officer corps. We show that while soldiers who graduated from IMET programs display more favorability toward human rights and democracy, they do not believe the military should remain insulated from policymaking. We believe this is a valuable step toward a deeper understanding of how U.S. military aid shapes recipient militaries and, more broadly, how norms are transmitted between allies.
s 外籍军事人员经常参加由美军管理的教育和文化项目。除了加强受援国军队的能力外,这些项目的主要目标之一是使受援国军队专业化。人们不仅希望这些士兵能将人权和民主准则内化于心,还希望他们将来能成为军队中具有影响力的成员。现有的跨国研究以及美国训练的士兵领导政变和叛乱的一些轶事表明,军事援助可能是无效的。然而,迄今为止,由于缺乏数据和只关注宏观层面,对军事援助对受援国更细微影响的细致了解一直受到阻碍。我们通过研究匈牙利军官团样本中的规范传播,弥补了这一空白。我们的研究表明,虽然从 IMET 项目毕业的士兵对人权和民主表现出更多的好感,但他们并不认为军队应该与政策制定保持隔绝。我们认为,这是深入了解美国军事援助如何塑造受援国军队,以及更广泛地说,规范如何在盟国之间传播的重要一步。
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引用次数: 0
The Shadow of Official Development Assistance: ODA, Corruption, and the Shadow Economy in Recipients 官方发展援助的阴影:官方发展援助、腐败和受援国的影子经济
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae070
Chungshik Moon, Youngwan Kim, Da Sul Kim
s While the shadow economy seems to have both positive and negative effects on a country’s macroeconomy, almost all governments have attempted to control the shadow economy to prevent the loss of tax revenues and the attendant impact on the government budget. Even though official development assistance (ODA) has no formal link with the shadow economy, we often observe a relationship between the two in recipient countries. We argue that ODA can increase the size of the shadow economy in recipient countries through both government and individual-level flows of ODA to the shadow economy. We analyzed data on the shadow economies of 107 ODA recipients from 1990 to 2018 using both fixed effect and Driscoll–Kraay estimators. The results show that recipients receiving a higher volume of ODA are more likely to have a larger shadow economy. Moreover, the relationship between ODA and the shadow economy is stronger in more corrupt recipients. We dealt with endogeneity issues using the generalized method of moments, which supported our findings.
虽然影子经济似乎对一国的宏观经济既有积极影响也有消极影响,但几乎所有国家的政府都试图控制影子经济,以防止税收流失和随之而来的对政府预算的影响。尽管官方发展援助(ODA)与影子经济并无正式联系,但我们经常在受援国观察到两者之间的关系。我们认为,通过政府和个人层面的官方发展援助流向影子经济,官方发展援助会增加受援国的影子经济规模。我们使用固定效应和德里斯科尔-克莱估计器分析了 1990 年至 2018 年 107 个官方发展援助受援国的影子经济数据。结果显示,接受官方发展援助越多的受援国,其影子经济规模越大。此外,在更腐败的受援国,官方发展援助与影子经济之间的关系更紧密。我们使用广义矩方法处理了内生性问题,该方法支持了我们的研究结果。
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引用次数: 0
UNIFIL’s “Blue Line” Demarcation: Spatial Ordering, Political Subjectivity, and Settler Colonialism in South Lebanese Borderlands 联黎部队的 "蓝线 "划界:黎巴嫩南部边境地区的空间秩序、政治主体性和定居者殖民主义
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae051
Susann Kassem
This article offers an ethnographic account of ongoing border conflicts in south Lebanon between members of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and residents in a south Lebanese border village. It emphasizes the specific experiences of this border population with foreign intervention and land expropriations. It places UNIFIL’s current intervention in a long history of Western imperialism in the region. It underlines how UNIFIL weakens the Lebanese state by taking over the sovereign functions a state typically performs. It examines current border contestations in a context of Israeli settler colonialism and its long-term role in shaping the livelihoods in south Lebanese border villages. It argues for the importance of understanding border conflicts and the work of international interventions in their specific local and historical contexts.
本文以人种学的方式描述了联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队(联黎部队)成员与黎巴嫩南部边境村庄居民之间持续不断的边境冲突。文章强调了这一边境居民在外国干预和土地征用方面的具体经历。它将联黎部队当前的干预行动置于西方帝国主义在该地区的悠久历史之中。它强调了联黎部队是如何通过接管一个国家通常履行的主权职能来削弱黎巴嫩国家的。报告从以色列定居者殖民主义及其在塑造黎巴嫩南部边境村庄生计方面的长期作用的角度,审视了当前的边界争端。报告认为,必须在具体的地方和历史背景下理解边界冲突和国际干预工作。
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引用次数: 0
Participatory Rebel Governance and Durability of Peace 参与式反叛治理与和平的持久性
IF 2.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae061
Hyunjung Park
Rebel groups often develop governance during war by establishing administrative structures, engaging in taxation, and providing social services to the local population. Rebel governance structures, however, vary depending on the extent to which they include participatory arrangements. Some rebel groups allow civilian participation in their governance during the war, while others have highly hierarchical structures strictly limiting civilian participation. This paper examines whether and how the governance activities of rebel groups and participatory arrangements and institutions that they adopt during the war affect the durability of peace. I argue that participatory rebel governance can be particularly effective in establishing durable peace after the war. Civilian participation under rebel governance facilitates civilian political participation after conflict ends, which, in turn, discourages the use of political violence in response to grievances. Using rebel governance data between 1945 and 2012, I find strong empirical support for my argument. I then demonstrate the plausibility of the causal mechanism in the case of Indonesian and the Philippine civil wars. By establishing a strong positive empirical relationship between rebel wartime governance and the durability of peace, this paper identifies another important effect of rebel governance on conflict processes and outcomes in addition to its demonstrated effect on negotiations between warring parties and post-war democratization.
叛乱团体在战争期间往往通过建立行政机构、征税和为当地居民提供社会服务来发展治理。然而,反叛团体的治理结构因包含参与性安排的程度不同而各异。一些反叛组织允许平民在战争期间参与治理,而另一些反叛组织则拥有等级森严的结构,严格限制平民的参与。本文探讨了反叛组织的治理活动及其在战争期间采取的参与性安排和制度是否会影响和平的持久性,以及如何影响和平的持久性。我认为,参与式反叛治理在战后建立持久和平方面尤为有效。叛军治理下的平民参与有助于冲突结束后的平民政治参与,反过来,这又会阻止使用政治暴力来回应不满。利用 1945 年至 2012 年的叛军治理数据,我发现我的论点得到了强有力的经验支持。然后,我在印度尼西亚和菲律宾内战的案例中证明了因果机制的合理性。通过在叛军战时治理与和平持久性之间建立强有力的正向实证关系,本文发现了叛军治理除了对交战各方谈判和战后民主化有明显影响外,对冲突过程和结果的另一个重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
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International Studies Quarterly
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