Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control最新文献

英文中文

Population growth, employment protection, and firm-level distortions 人口增长、就业保护和企业层面的扭曲

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105243

Cheng Chen , Takahiro Hattori

Declining population growth and firm-level input distortions are important real-world phenomena. In this paper, we develop a firm dynamics model to study how firing costs induce input distortions through the lens of growth of working-age population. We find that the negative impact of firing costs on aggregate productivity and output is amplified when the growth rate of working-age population declines. This is because slower growth of labor supply leads to fewer entering firms and more incumbents, which are more affected by firing costs. Using Japanese establishment-level data, we calibrate the model and conduct counterfactual analyses, showing that a decline in population growth has a quantitatively significant impact on firm entry and firm-level input distortions. Finally, we provide evidence using Japanese establishment-level census data to support the model’s key predictions.

人口增长下降和企业层面的投入扭曲是重要的现实世界现象。本文建立了一个企业动力学模型，通过劳动年龄人口的增长来研究解雇成本如何引起投入扭曲。我们发现，当劳动年龄人口增长率下降时，解雇成本对总生产率和总产出的负面影响被放大。这是因为劳动力供给增长放缓导致新进入企业减少，现有企业增加，而现有企业更容易受到解雇成本的影响。利用日本企业层面的数据，我们校准了模型并进行了反事实分析，结果表明，人口增长的下降对企业进入和企业层面的投入扭曲有数量上的显著影响。最后，我们使用日本企业层面的人口普查数据提供证据来支持模型的关键预测。

引用次数: 0

Carbon leakage in production networks under asymmetric climate policies 不对称气候政策下生产网络中的碳泄漏

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105241

Elisa Grugni , Ivan Savin , Jeroen van den Bergh

Climate policies are typically designed at the regional level. This generates differences in implicit carbon prices across countries that can alter the structure of trade patterns and undermine the effectiveness of environmental regulations through carbon leakage. The paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of asymmetric climate policies, focusing on how they affect the international structure of production. The purpose is twofold: assessing the impact of uncoordinated climate policies on the outsourcing of production and studying the effectiveness of a border carbon adjustment mechanism aimed at safeguarding countries’ competitiveness. To this end, we develop and simulate a theoretical agent-based model in which supply chains are endogenously determined by downstream firms’ sourcing strategies; such firms select a supplier of intermediate goods, whose production generates emissions and is subjected to environmental regulations. Focusing on bottom-up interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents, this approach provides novel insights into how environmental policies rewire firm linkages within global production networks, and how this reshaping affects overall carbon emissions.

气候政策通常是在区域一级设计的。这就造成了各国隐含碳价格的差异，这可能会改变贸易模式的结构，并通过碳泄漏破坏环境法规的有效性。本文考察了不对称气候政策的宏观经济后果，重点关注它们如何影响国际生产结构。其目的有两个：评估不协调的气候政策对生产外包的影响，以及研究旨在维护国家竞争力的边境碳调整机制的有效性。为此，我们开发并模拟了一个基于代理的理论模型，其中供应链是由下游企业的采购策略内生决定的；这些公司选择中间产品的供应商，这些供应商的生产会产生排放，并受到环境法规的约束。该方法关注异质性和有限理性主体之间自下而上的相互作用，为环境政策如何重塑全球生产网络中的企业联系以及这种重塑如何影响总体碳排放提供了新颖的见解。

{"title":"Carbon leakage in production networks under asymmetric climate policies","authors":"Elisa Grugni , Ivan Savin , Jeroen van den Bergh","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate policies are typically designed at the regional level. This generates differences in implicit carbon prices across countries that can alter the structure of trade patterns and undermine the effectiveness of environmental regulations through carbon leakage. The paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of asymmetric climate policies, focusing on how they affect the international structure of production. The purpose is twofold: assessing the impact of uncoordinated climate policies on the outsourcing of production and studying the effectiveness of a border carbon adjustment mechanism aimed at safeguarding countries’ competitiveness. To this end, we develop and simulate a theoretical agent-based model in which supply chains are endogenously determined by downstream firms’ sourcing strategies; such firms select a supplier of intermediate goods, whose production generates emissions and is subjected to environmental regulations. Focusing on bottom-up interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents, this approach provides novel insights into how environmental policies rewire firm linkages within global production networks, and how this reshaping affects overall carbon emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 105241"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145841931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond connectivity: Stock market participation in a network 超越连接：股票市场参与网络

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105242

Anastasiia Parakhoniak , Olga Balakina , Claes Bäckman

What are the aggregate and distributional consequences of the relationship between an individual’s social network and financial decisions? Motivated by several well-documented facts about the influence of social connections on financial decisions, we build and calibrate a model of stock market participation with a social network that emphasizes the interplay between connectivity and network structure. Since connections to informed agents influence peers through utility and learning, there is a pivotal role for homophily. An increase in the average number of connections raises the average participation rate, mostly due to richer agents. Higher homophily benefits richer agents by creating clusters where information spreads more efficiently. We also show that peer effects in participation costs is crucial for matching stock market participation among poorer agents. Finally, we provide empirical evidence consistent with the importance of connectivity and sorting.

个人的社会网络和财务决策之间的关系的总体和分配结果是什么？受社会关系对财务决策影响的几个有充分证据的事实的激励，我们建立并校准了一个带有社会网络的股票市场参与模型，该模型强调连通性和网络结构之间的相互作用。由于与知情代理人的联系通过效用和学习影响同伴，因此同质性起着关键作用。平均连接数的增加提高了平均参与率，这主要是由于更富有的代理。更高的同质性通过创建信息更有效传播的集群而使更丰富的代理受益。我们还表明，参与成本中的同伴效应对于匹配较贫穷的代理人之间的股票市场参与至关重要。最后，我们提供了与连通性和排序的重要性一致的经验证据。

引用次数: 0

Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios 用公共债务组合管理通胀与产出之间的权衡

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105244

Boris Chafwehé , Charles de Beauffort , Rigas Oikonomou

When taxes do not sufficiently adjust to government debt levels, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level predicts that inflation must adjust to ensure the solvency of public finances. We study the role of optimal debt maturity portfolios in this context, using a New Keynesian model with both demand and supply-side shocks. Our paper offers new analytical insights into the mechanisms through which the debt maturity composition affects the trade-off between inflation and the output gap: The Persistence, Discounting and Hedging channels of optimal policy. Our findings, based on a rich prior predictive analysis, indicate that the key driving force behind optimal portfolio decisions is Hedging. Moreover, the optimal maturity composition of debt is driven primarily by supply side shocks, rather than by demand shocks. Finally, our results indicate that debt management is a significant margin to complement monetary policy in stabilizing inflation when debt solvency is an important concern.

当税收不能充分调整到政府债务水平时，价格水平财政理论预测通货膨胀必须调整以确保公共财政的偿付能力。在这种情况下，我们研究了最优债务期限投资组合的作用，使用了包含需求侧和供给侧冲击的新凯恩斯模型。本文为债务期限构成影响通胀与产出缺口之间权衡的机制提供了新的分析视角：最优政策的持续、贴现和对冲渠道。我们的发现，基于丰富的先验预测分析，表明最优投资组合决策背后的关键驱动力是对冲。此外，债务的最佳期限构成主要是由供给侧冲击驱动的，而不是由需求冲击驱动的。最后，我们的研究结果表明，当债务偿付能力是一个重要问题时，债务管理是稳定通胀的货币政策的重要补充。

引用次数: 0

Stabilizing credit when nonperforming loans surge: The role of asset management companies 不良贷款激增时稳定信贷：资产管理公司的作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105249

Reiner Martin , Edward O’Brien , M. Udara Peiris , Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

When default losses elevate borrowing costs, expanding credit cannot stabilize the economy because default rates feed back to lending rates through bank balance sheets. Asset management companies (AMCs) break this loop by purchasing nonperforming loans at their long-run recovery values, thereby fixing the effective default rate that banks face. Government purchases of performing loans expand credit but leave this feedback intact. In a model calibrated to the eurozone, the AMC reduces quarterly default rates by 0.8 percentage points, lowers lending rates by 1.6 percentage points, and raises welfare by 0.2%. Government purchases crowd out bank deposits, contracting credit; default rates rise by 1.8 percentage points, lending rates increase by 1.2 percentage points, and welfare falls by 0.3%.

当违约损失提高借贷成本时，扩大信贷无法稳定经济，因为违约率会通过银行资产负债表反馈给贷款利率。资产管理公司（amc）通过以其长期回收价值购买不良贷款来打破这个循环，从而固定了银行面临的有效违约率。政府购买不良贷款扩大了信贷规模，但没有影响这种反馈。在一个针对欧元区进行校准的模型中，AMC将季度违约率降低了0.8个百分点，将贷款利率降低了1.6个百分点，并将福利水平提高了0.2%。政府购买挤占了银行存款，收缩了信贷；违约率上升1.8个百分点，贷款利率上升1.2个百分点，福利下降0.3%。

引用次数: 0

Ambiguity overprecision and optimal capital requirements in continuous time 连续时间的歧义、精度和最优资本要求

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105240

Jingyuan Li , Qian Lin , Weidong Tian

We develop a dynamic utility model within a continuous-time framework to incorporate ambiguity overprecision regarding both the correlation and drift of price dynamics. We extend key results from optimal capital requirements theory in this framework. By employing an explicit approach, we determine the optimal liability-to-surplus ratio for a major insurer, shedding light on the profound impact of ambiguity overprecision. Our analysis reveals that accounting for ambiguity overprecision leads to an optimal liability-to-surplus ratio exceeding the benchmark established in the absence of such overprecision.

我们在连续时间框架内开发了一种动态实用新型，以结合关于价格动态相关性和漂移的模糊性过度精度。在此框架下，我们扩展了最优资本需求理论的关键结果。通过采用一种明确的方法，我们确定了大型保险公司的最优负债盈余比率，揭示了模糊性过度精确的深刻影响。我们的分析表明，考虑歧义过精度导致最优负债盈余比超过在没有这种过精度的情况下建立的基准。

引用次数: 0

A hybrid differential game in renewable resources with sliding modes and crossing limit cycles 具有滑动模态和跨越极限环的可再生资源混合微分对策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105248

Anton Bondarev , Thorsten Upmann

This paper investigates how ecological thresholds affect strategic exploitation in renewable resource games. We extend the standard single-agent optimal control harvesting model to a non-cooperative differential game with two agents, where the resource follows piecewise-smooth (PWS) dynamics and growth rates change abruptly at a stock threshold. The resulting three-dimensional (3D) state–costate system generates new strategic behaviour absent in smooth models. We identify sliding regions and hybrid crossing limit cycles (HCLCs) as potential open-loop Nash equilibria (OLNE), depending on parameter values. These outcomes correspond to distinct economic regimes: sliding equilibria capture threshold exploitation at fragile steady states, while HCLCs reflect endogenous boom–bust harvesting cycles. In contrast to two-dimensional (2D) optimal-control models where HCLCs cannot be optimal, our results show that strategic interaction in multi-agent settings can endogenously sustain such cycles. The analysis reveals how ecological discontinuities and strategic competition jointly shape resource dynamics, offering new insights into the stability and management of renewable resources.

本文研究了再生资源博弈中生态阈值对战略开发的影响。我们将标准的单智能体最优控制收获模型扩展到具有两个智能体的非合作微分博弈，其中资源遵循分段平滑（PWS）动态，并且增长率在库存阈值处突然变化。由此产生的三维（3D）状态-状态系统产生了光滑模型中所没有的新策略行为。我们将滑动区域和混合交叉极限环（hclc）识别为潜在的开环纳什均衡（OLNE），这取决于参数值。这些结果对应于不同的经济制度：滑动平衡捕获脆弱稳定状态下的阈值开采，而hclc反映内生的繁荣-萧条收获周期。与二维（2D）最优控制模型（hclc不能达到最优）相比，我们的研究结果表明，多智能体设置中的策略交互可以内生地维持这种循环。该分析揭示了生态不连续性和战略竞争如何共同塑造资源动态，为可再生资源的稳定性和管理提供了新的见解。

{"title":"A hybrid differential game in renewable resources with sliding modes and crossing limit cycles","authors":"Anton Bondarev , Thorsten Upmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how ecological thresholds affect strategic exploitation in renewable resource games. We extend the standard single-agent optimal control harvesting model to a non-cooperative differential game with two agents, where the resource follows piecewise-smooth (PWS) dynamics and growth rates change abruptly at a stock threshold. The resulting three-dimensional (3D) state–costate system generates new strategic behaviour absent in smooth models. We identify sliding regions and hybrid crossing limit cycles (HCLCs) as potential open-loop Nash equilibria (OLNE), depending on parameter values. These outcomes correspond to distinct economic regimes: sliding equilibria capture threshold exploitation at fragile steady states, while HCLCs reflect endogenous boom–bust harvesting cycles. In contrast to two-dimensional (2D) optimal-control models where HCLCs cannot be optimal, our results show that strategic interaction in multi-agent settings can endogenously sustain such cycles. The analysis reveals how ecological discontinuities and strategic competition jointly shape resource dynamics, offering new insights into the stability and management of renewable resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 105248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Has CRMW lowered the cost of corporate debt? A structural credit risk model CRMW降低了企业债务的成本吗？结构性信用风险模型

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105239

Ying Liu , Xi Wang

We develop a structural credit risk model by incorporating three features of Credit Risk Mitigation Warrant (CRMW): specific protection, targeted guidance, and actual implementation. The model quantifies CRMW’s effect on credit spreads under systematic and idiosyncratic shocks. Results show that CRMW: (1) reduces credit spreads by raising default boundaries, with stronger effects under idiosyncratic shocks; (2) exhibits pro-cyclical feature that amplifies spread volatility; (3) is outperformed by fiscal bailouts under systematic risk, while its signaling effect mitigates adverse selection. This paper provides valuable insights into CRMW’s credit risk management mechanisms and effects.

本文结合信用风险缓解权证的三个特征：特定保护、定向指导和实际实施，构建了结构性信用风险模型。该模型量化了CRMW在系统性和特殊冲击下对信贷息差的影响。结果表明：(1)CRMW通过提高违约边界来降低信用利差，在特殊冲击下效果更强；(2)表现出放大价差波动的顺周期特征；(3)在系统风险下，财政救助的表现优于系统风险下的财政救助，而其信号效应缓解了逆向选择。本文对CRMW的信用风险管理机制和效果提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Bank lending standards and the U.S. economy 银行贷款标准和美国经济

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105247

Elijah Broadbent , Huberto M. Ennis , Tyler J. Pike , Horacio Sapriza

The provision of bank credit to firms and households affects macroeconomic performance. We use survey measures of changes in bank lending standards, disaggregated by loan category, to quantify the effect of changes in banks’ attitudes toward lending on aggregate output, inflation, and interest rates. Bank lending to businesses is particularly important for macroeconomic outcomes, with peak effects on output growth of around 30 to 40 basis points after four quarters of the initial shock. These effects depend on the stage of the business cycle and the proximity of the short-term interest rate to its effective lower bound. The effects are larger when output is growing below trend, when uncertainty is increasing or high, and when interest rates are away from the lower bound. We also find that the response of the economy to lending-standards shocks is asymmetric, with tightening shocks having larger effects on output.

向企业和家庭提供银行信贷影响宏观经济表现。我们使用银行贷款标准变化的调查措施，按贷款类别分类，量化银行对贷款态度的变化对总产出、通货膨胀和利率的影响。银行对企业的贷款对宏观经济结果尤其重要，在最初四个季度的冲击过后，对产出增长的峰值影响约为30至40个基点。这些影响取决于商业周期的阶段和短期利率接近其有效下限的程度。当产出增长低于趋势水平，当不确定性增加或很高，以及当利率远离下限时，这种影响更大。我们还发现，经济对贷款标准冲击的反应是不对称的，紧缩冲击对产出的影响更大。

引用次数: 0

Expectation traps and Neo-Fisherian policy 期望陷阱与新费舍尔主义政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105246

Jacob A. Robbins

Periods of low interest rates and subdued inflation in advanced economies have raised the prospect of expectation traps, in which self-fulfilling pessimistic beliefs sustain recessions. This paper examines the stability and policy implications of expectation-driven recessions when agents deviate from rational expectations. We build an overlapping generations model in which belief shocks generate endogenous fluctuations in output and inflation, and show that persistent stagnation equilibria exist under bounded rationality. Optimal policy depends on the strength of feedback between current and expected income. With weak feedback, Keynesian policies— lower interest rates and higher government spending— are effective. With strong feedback, escaping the trap requires Neo-Fisherian policies— pegging interest rates and reduced fiscal spending.

发达经济体长期的低利率和低通胀，增加了出现预期陷阱的可能性，在这种陷阱中，自我实现的悲观信念会使衰退持续下去。本文研究了当经济主体偏离理性预期时，预期驱动的经济衰退的稳定性和政策含义。我们建立了一个重叠代模型，在该模型中，信念冲击会产生产出和通货膨胀的内生波动，并表明在有限理性下存在持续停滞均衡。最优政策取决于当前收入和预期收入之间反馈的强度。在反馈较弱的情况下，凯恩斯主义政策——降低利率和增加政府支出——是有效的。有了强烈的反馈，要想摆脱这个陷阱，就需要新费舍尔主义的政策——挂钩利率和减少财政支出。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀