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Trauma in world politics: Memory dynamics between different victim groups 世界政治中的创伤:不同受害群体之间的记忆动态
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241231868
Kathrin Bachleitner
While the international arena is littered with events of war and atrocities, the memory of the Holocaust was institutionalized as the ultimate benchmark of human suffering within the liberal world order. Against the backdrop of such a global memory landscape, this article explores how different memories of trauma interact. Building on literature within international relations, sociology and social psychology, as well as survey data collected from a sample of Syrians, Palestinians and Israelis, its analysis explores how victims of political violence compare their suffering with that of others and why such comparisons slip easily into competition. The analysis found that individuals were competitive with their memories when they showed high levels of patriotic attachment and a real and perceived, yet unrecognized, sense of victimhood. This article thus offers insight into a key issue in peace and conflict studies: the links between traumatic memory, victimhood, international recognition and conflict.
尽管国际舞台上充斥着战争和暴行事件,但大屠杀的记忆已被制度化,成为自由世界秩序中人类苦难的终极基准。在这种全球记忆景观的背景下,本文探讨了不同的创伤记忆是如何相互作用的。文章以国际关系、社会学和社会心理学方面的文献以及从叙利亚人、巴勒斯坦人和以色列人中收集的调查数据为基础,分析探讨了政治暴力受害者如何将自己的痛苦与他人的痛苦进行比较,以及为什么这种比较很容易演变成竞争。分析发现,当个人表现出高度的爱国情怀和真实的、感知到的、但未被承认的受害者意识时,他们就会与自己的记忆竞争。因此,本文对和平与冲突研究中的一个关键问题--创伤记忆、受害者身份、国际认可与冲突之间的联系--提出了自己的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Sending the B team: The impact of lesser signals of resolve 派出 B 组:较小的决心信号的影响
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241243194
Roseanne W McManus, Tuba Sendinç
When signaling resolve, is it necessary to go ‘all-in’ and send the strongest possible signal or can sending a lesser signal be effective? Prior research suggests that sending a lesser signal is an admission of irresolution, akin to sending no signal. We make the novel claim that lesser signals of resolve can actually be worse for credibility than sending no signal, particularly in general deterrence situations. We theorize that while the absence of a signal may go unnoticed, a lesser signal puts a spotlight on irresolution. Building on prior findings that high-level visits can function as signals of extended deterrence commitment, we test our theory using new data on visits abroad by the US president, vice president, secretary of state, and secretary of defense. We find that only presidential visits are effective at deterring military challenges against the country visited. Visits by lesser officials, whom we dub the ‘B Team’, actually increase the risk of deterrence failure.
在发出决心信号时,是否有必要 "全情投入",发出尽可能强烈的信号,还是发出较弱的信号也能奏效?先前的研究表明,发出较弱的信号就等于承认不下决心,与不发出信号无异。我们提出了一个新颖的主张,即发出较弱的决心信号实际上比不发出任何信号更不利于公信力,尤其是在一般威慑情况下。我们的理论是,虽然没有信号可能会被忽视,但较小的信号却会让人注意到不妥协的态度。基于之前的研究发现,高层访问可以作为扩展威慑承诺的信号,我们利用美国总统、副总统、国务卿和国防部长出国访问的新数据检验了我们的理论。我们发现,只有总统出访才能有效地遏制对被访问国家的军事挑战。我们称之为 "B 团队 "的次要官员的访问实际上增加了威慑失败的风险。
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引用次数: 0
The democratic patience 民主的耐心
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241231865
Andrew Kenealy
This article theoretically clarifies and presents the first large-N empirical support for a centuries-old intuition: that democracies are slow to use violent military force. It argues that democratic and nondemocratic state leaders managing interstate crises experience trade-offs over when to respond, and that democratic institutions incentivize democrats that consider violent military force to delay. The article presents a simplified account of leader choice during crisis and highlights two mechanisms rooted in external and internal politics that may drive delay. Analyses of nearly 950 states experiencing crisis provide support for expectations. Democracy is associated with a roughly 40% lower likelihood of responding to a crisis at any given point in time, conditional on responding with violence. Two illustrative case studies probe the plausibility of the proposed mechanisms. Taken together, the theory and findings illuminate the processes leaders engage as they consider abandoning negotiating tables at home and abroad in favor of the battlefield.
本文从理论上阐明并首次提出了对一个已有数百年历史的直觉的大范围实证支持:民主国家在使用暴力军事力量方面行动迟缓。文章认为,管理国家间危机的民主和非民主国家领导人会在何时做出反应的问题上进行权衡,而民主制度会激励那些考虑使用暴力军事力量的民主人士推迟行动。文章对领导人在危机中的选择进行了简化,并强调了两种可能导致延迟的根植于外部和内部政治的机制。对近 950 个经历危机的国家进行的分析为这一预期提供了支持。在以暴力应对危机的条件下,民主与在任何给定时间点应对危机的可能性降低约 40% 相关联。两个说明性案例研究探究了所提出机制的合理性。综合来看,这些理论和研究结果阐明了领导人在考虑放弃国内外谈判桌而转战战场时所经历的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Third-party countries in cyber conflict: Public opinion and conflict spillover in cyberspace 网络冲突中的第三方国家:网络空间的舆论和冲突蔓延
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241235852
Miguel Alberto Gomez, Gregory H Winger
The transnational nature of cyberspace alters the role of third-party countries (TPCs) in international conflict. In the conventional environment, military operations are primarily confined to the boundaries of the combatants or a designated war zone. However, during cyber conflicts, operations may occur on the digital infrastructure of states not otherwise involved in the dispute. Nevertheless, within the cyber conflict literature, little is said about TPCs who, by virtue of interconnectivity, may find themselves involved in a conflict not of their own making. Consequently, we examine the political and diplomatic hazards of cyber operations involving these actors. Through survey experiments involving participants from the United Kingdom and Canada, we assess the public opinion impact of an offensive cyber operation’s revelation on a TPC population. We find that while these incidents are viewed negatively, prior authorization and the involvement of an ally reduces this tendency. Such conditions lead the public to perceive these operations as corresponding with their national interest while suppressing fears of the possible consequences following their indirect involvement.
网络空间的跨国性质改变了第三方国家(TPCs)在国际冲突中的角色。在常规环境下,军事行动主要局限于交战双方的边界或指定的战区。然而,在网络冲突中,行动可能发生在没有卷入争端的国家的数字基础设施上。然而,在网络冲突的文献中,却鲜有关于 TPCs 的论述,而 TPCs 由于相互关联性,可能会发现自己卷入了一场并非由其自身造成的冲突。因此,我们研究了涉及这些行动者的网络行动的政治和外交危害。通过对英国和加拿大参与者的调查实验,我们评估了进攻性网络行动对 TPC 人口的舆论影响。我们发现,虽然这些事件被负面看待,但事先授权和盟友的参与会减少这种倾向。这些条件使公众认为这些行动符合其国家利益,同时抑制了对其间接参与后可能产生的后果的恐惧。
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引用次数: 0
Sports nationalism and xenophobia: When cheering turns into violence 体育民族主义与仇外心理:当欢呼变成暴力
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241231177
Gabriele Pinto
International football matches are among the highest manifestations of national pride and unity that a country can have in peaceful times. However, some anecdotal evidence suggests that when things go wrong (e.g. when the national team loses), the euphoria surrounding these events can easily turn into xenophobic outbursts. We propose a conceptual framework and an empirical analysis to explain whether sports nationalism can fuel xenophobic behavior and attacks against immigrants. Leveraging on new soccer data from Germany and quasi-experimental econometric techniques, we show the existence of a causal nexus between the national team’s performance in prominent international competitions and shifts in nationalist tendencies and xenophobic behaviors against immigrants. In the immediate days following a defeat of the German national team, there is a significant increase in the number of attacks against immigrants in the country. The opposite happens following a victory. Through a variety of robustness tests and different specifications, we show that the effect is specific to attacks against immigrants and not due to a general increase in violent behavior observed in other studies. Finally, we investigate potential underlying mechanisms by looking at the effect of football matches on reported mood and attitudes against immigrants.
国际足球赛事是一个国家在和平时期最能体现民族自豪感和团结的活动之一。然而,一些轶事证据表明,一旦出现问题(如国家队输球),围绕这些赛事的兴奋情绪很容易转化为仇外情绪的爆发。我们提出了一个概念框架并进行了实证分析,以解释体育民族主义是否会助长仇外行为和对移民的攻击。利用德国新的足球数据和准实验计量经济学技术,我们证明了国家队在著名国际比赛中的表现与民族主义倾向的转变和针对移民的仇外行为之间存在因果关系。在德国国家队失利后的几天内,国内针对移民的袭击事件数量显著增加。而德国队获胜后的情况则恰恰相反。通过各种稳健性测试和不同的规范,我们证明了这种效应是针对针对移民的攻击行为的,而不是其他研究中观察到的暴力行为的普遍增加。最后,我们通过观察足球比赛对报告的情绪和对移民态度的影响,研究了潜在的内在机制。
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引用次数: 0
Ethnic politics via digital means: Introducing the Ethnic Organizations Online dataset 通过数字手段实现民族政治:民族组织在线数据集介绍
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241231844
Frederik Gremler, Nils B Weidmann
With the increasing relevance of ethnic groups as political actors, the literature has attempted to identify and study the ethnic organizations representing these groups. How do these organizations use digital communication channels to reach their domestic and international audiences? To enable research on these questions, this article introduces the Ethnic Organizations Online dataset, a new data collection focusing on the online channels that ethnic organizations use. The dataset includes four types of channels: Twitter (since July 2023, rebranded by Elon Musk as X); Facebook; Instagram; and regular websites. It relies on the Ethnic Power Relations – Organizations database, and is therefore compatible with an entire family of datasets on ethnic politics. Featuring more than 2000 online channels used by 265 groups, it allows researchers to study a wide variety of questions related to digital ethnic mobilization. The article presents three examples of how the dataset can be used. We study: (a) how a group’s political goals influence social media adoption; (b) how elections impact the organizations’ communication frequency and how this differs between democracies and autocracies; and (c) how the power status of a group affects the content of their communication. We provide replication codes facilitating the use of the dataset in applied research.
随着民族群体作为政治行为者的重要性日益增加,文献试图识别和研究代表这些群体的民族组织。这些组织是如何利用数字传播渠道接触其国内和国际受众的?为了能够对这些问题进行研究,本文介绍了 "少数民族组织在线数据集",这是一个新的数据集,重点关注少数民族组织使用的在线渠道。该数据集包括四类渠道:Twitter(自 2023 年 7 月起,被埃隆-马斯克改名为 X)、Facebook、Instagram 和普通网站。该数据集依赖于 "民族权力关系--组织 "数据库,因此与整个民族政治数据集系列兼容。它包含 265 个团体使用的 2000 多个在线渠道,使研究人员能够研究与数字种族动员相关的各种问题。文章介绍了如何使用该数据集的三个例子。我们研究了:(a) 群体的政治目标如何影响社交媒体的采用;(b) 选举如何影响组织的交流频率,以及民主政体和专制政体之间的差异;(c) 群体的权力地位如何影响其交流内容。我们提供了便于在应用研究中使用该数据集的复制代码。
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引用次数: 0
Network analysis of international cooperation in space 1958–2023: Evidence of space blocs 1958-2023 年国际空间合作网络分析:太空集团的证据
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231225162
Svetla Ben-Itzhak
The future of international cooperation in outer space was questioned when, in January 2022, Russia announced that it intended to leave the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024. A symbol of post-Cold War reconciliation, the station has linked Washington and Moscow even when relations on the ground frayed. The ISS has become a bedrock of international cooperation, having welcomed 276 individuals from 22 countries since it was first put in orbit in 1998. Russia’s announced departure from the ISS alarmed proponents of international cooperation in space. Its actions, however, do not signal an end but a new phase in international cooperative dynamics in space. This article examines international cooperation in outer space from 1958 until 2023. Using network analysis, it quantifies cooperative relations between states on space matters to examine the current state of international cooperation in space and its evolving dynamics. It finds that international cooperation in space has become increasingly defined by the emergence of distinct clusters of states, termed ‘space blocs’. Recent patterns of international cooperation in space markedly deviate from past dynamics in three key aspects. First, since 2008, distinct, bound space blocs can be clearly detected. Second, the internal composition of recent space blocs has become increasingly reflective of geopolitical affinities and strategic considerations on the ground. Third, although highly bound and distinct, the more recent space blocs are not entirely isolated and have not instituted any exclusionary practices, which is promising for the future of international space cooperation.
2022 年 1 月,俄罗斯宣布打算在 2024 年离开国际空间站,这使外层空间国际合作的未来受到质疑。作为冷战后和解的象征,国际空间站将华盛顿和莫斯科联系在一起,即使在地面关系出现裂痕时也是如此。国际空间站已成为国际合作的基石,自 1998 年首次进入轨道以来,已接待了来自 22 个国家的 276 人。俄罗斯宣布离开国际空间站令国际太空合作的支持者感到震惊。然而,它的行动并不意味着结束,而是标志着国际太空合作动态进入了一个新阶段。本文研究了从 1958 年到 2023 年的外层空间国际合作。文章利用网络分析法,量化了各国在太空事务上的合作关系,以研究国际太空合作的现状及其演变动态。研究发现,被称为 "太空集团 "的独特国家集群的出现日益界定了国际太空合作。最近的国际空间合作模式在三个关键方面明显偏离了过去的动态。首先,自 2008 年以来,可以清楚地发现一些独特的、有约束力的空间集团。其次,近期空间集团的内部构成越来越多地反映了地缘政治亲缘关系和实地战略考虑。第三,最近的空间集团虽然具有高度的约束力和独特性,但并不是完全孤立的,也没有采取任何排斥性做法,这对国际空间合作的未来是有希望的。
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引用次数: 0
The motivating and mobilizing effects of inequality on civil conflict: Focusing on trade-induced labor market shocks 不平等对国内冲突的激励和动员作用:聚焦贸易引发的劳动力市场冲击
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231221447
Hye-Ryoung Jung
This article has two aims: (1) to identify the causal effect of income inequality on civil conflict and (2) to find the mechanism in which disadvantaged individuals can mobilize collective violence. Applying the Heckscher-Ohlin and Stopler-Samuelson theorems, this study hypothesizes that workers in land-rich countries – those who face contracted demand in the labor market and consequently a larger income disparity – will have a lower opportunity cost to engage in conflict as trade expands. Exploiting exogenous spatial variation in inequality due to the country’s factor endowment, together with time variation in tariffs arising from the economic liberalization, the work of this research documents a statistically significant and economically meaningful causal effect of inequality on civil conflict. Secondly, to identify the mobilizing effect of inequality, I test whether higher disparity in income distribution within an ethnic group breeds more rebellions initiated by the group. Esteban and Ray’s model claims that an increase in income inequality within an ethnic group makes collective violence more likely, because the poor within the group provide conflict labor, and the rich within the group provide resources for violence. By merging international census data that cover 115 million individuals from 221 ethnic groups with the groups’ conflict records, the analysis empirically identifies that when holding total ethnic income constant, within-group inequality that is proxied by the unemployment rate is strongly correlated with the group’s propensity to initiate armed conflicts. Shedding new light on the prevailing scholarly discord that exclusively chooses either one of class and ethnic cleavages as sources of intrastate violence, the findings of this study imply that if trade-induced labor market shocks increase within-group inequality, it motivates workers to participate in rebellions by lowering their opportunity cost of fighting and mobilizes ethnic collective violence by allowing the ethnic leaders to recruit combatants at a lower cost.
本文有两个目的:(1) 确定收入不平等对国内冲突的因果效应;(2) 寻找弱势个体动员集体暴力的机制。本研究运用赫克歇尔-俄林(Heckscher-Ohlin)定理和斯托普勒-萨缪尔森(Stopler-Samuelson)定理,假设土地资源丰富的国家的工人--那些在劳动力市场上面临需求萎缩、因而收入差距较大的工人--随着贸易的扩大,参与冲突的机会成本会降低。利用国家要素禀赋导致的不平等的外生空间变化,以及经济自由化导致的关税的时间变化,本研究的工作记录了不平等对国内冲突的统计意义和经济意义上的因果效应。其次,为了确定不平等的动员效应,我检验了一个族群内部收入分配差距越大是否会滋生更多由该族群发起的叛乱。埃斯特万和雷的模型认为,族群内部收入不平等的加剧会使集体暴力更有可能发生,因为族群内部的穷人为冲突提供了劳动力,而族群内部的富人则为暴力提供了资源。通过将涵盖 221 个族群的 1.15 亿人的国际人口普查数据与这些族群的冲突记录合并,该分析从经验上发现,在族群总收入不变的情况下,以失业率为代表的族群内部不平等与族群发起武装冲突的倾向密切相关。目前,学术界普遍认为阶级和民族裂痕是国内暴力的根源,本研究的结论揭示了这一不和谐现象的新含义,即如果贸易引发的劳动力市场冲击加剧了群体内部的不平等,就会通过降低工人的战斗机会成本来激励他们参与叛乱,并通过允许民族领袖以较低的成本招募战斗人员来动员民族集体暴力。
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引用次数: 0
Cyber scares and prophylactic policies: Cross-national evidence on the effect of cyberattacks on public support for surveillance 网络恐慌与预防性政策:网络攻击对公众支持监控的影响的跨国证据
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241233960
Amelia C Arsenault, Sarah E Kreps, Keren LG Snider, Daphna Canetti
While conventional terrorism has long been associated with enhanced support for surveillance, scholars have not determined whether variation in the type and outcome of terror attacks, including those emanating from cyberspace, influences public support for these policies. Further, existing studies typically examine public opinion in a single country, thereby failing to investigate cross-national trends in support for surveillance. In this article, we outline a theoretical relationship between cyberattacks and support for surveillance measures and then, through survey experiments conducted in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel, explore whether variation in both the type (conventional or cyberterrorism) and outcome (non-lethal or lethal outcomes) of attacks influences support for a range of surveillance tactics. We find that while participants do not base their support for surveillance on attack type or outcome and do not differentiate between surveillance tactics when formulating their preferences, there are considerable cross-national differences in support. Participants from Israel generally responded more favorably to all forms of surveillance, independent of experimental treatment, with British respondents demonstrating high levels of support for CCTV cameras. American respondents, however, were generally less supportive of surveillance measures across treatments, with the differences being most notable in their relative reluctance to support the use of CCTV cameras. These findings have important implications not only for the sustainability of national policies but also for international collaboration to manage emerging risks.
虽然传统恐怖主义长期以来一直与加强对监控的支持相关联,但学者们尚未确定恐怖袭击(包括来自网络空间的恐怖袭击)的类型和结果的变化是否会影响公众对这些政策的支持。此外,现有的研究通常只考察一个国家的民意,因此无法调查支持监控的跨国趋势。在本文中,我们概述了网络攻击与监控措施支持率之间的理论关系,然后通过在美国、英国和以色列进行的调查实验,探讨了攻击类型(传统或网络恐怖主义)和结果(非致命或致命结果)的变化是否会影响对一系列监控策略的支持率。我们发现,虽然参与者并不根据袭击类型或结果来决定是否支持监控,而且在制定他们的偏好时也不区分监控策略,但在支持率方面却存在相当大的跨国差异。来自以色列的受访者通常对所有形式的监控都比较支持,与实验处理无关,英国受访者对闭路电视摄像机的支持率很高。然而,美国受访者对各种监控措施的支持程度普遍较低,最明显的差异在于他们相对不愿意支持使用闭路电视摄像机。这些发现不仅对国家政策的可持续性具有重要意义,而且对国际合作管理新出现的风险也具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Women, political violence and economics 妇女、政治暴力和经济
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231215772
Mario Ferrero
The participation of women in armed insurgencies calls into question a widespread belief that women are inherently more peace loving than men on account of their hard-wired caring disposition. To explain why women engage in political violence, existing research either ignores the fundamental collective action problem involved because of motivations focused on the value of the cause, or looks for selective incentives in the form of loot and appropriation, which often cannot be found. This paper offers a simple gendered model of the supply of violence that can account for both peaceful and violent choices and make sense of the apparent extremism of some choices as rational, not fanatical behaviour. Crucially, it regards the individual reward for violence as not material gain, but the possibility of women of breaking out of the cage of traditional gender roles and making a statement by their deeds, thereby joining a cult of heroes and martyrs. For evidence, we turn to the extraordinary involvement of women in the Russian revolutionary movement leading up to the 1917 revolution.
妇女参与武装叛乱活动使人们对一种普遍看法提出质疑,这种看法认为妇女天生就比男子更热爱和平,因为她们天生就具有关爱他人的性格。为了解释妇女参与政治暴力的原因,现有的研究要么忽略了其中涉及的基本集体行动问题,因为动机主要集中在事业的价值上,要么寻找以掠夺和侵占为形式的选择性激励,而这往往是找不到的。本文提供了一个简单的暴力供给性别模型,该模型既能解释和平选择,也能解释暴力选择,还能将一些表面上极端的选择解释为理性而非狂热的行为。最重要的是,该模型认为暴力的个人回报不是物质利益,而是妇女有可能冲破传统性别角色的牢笼,通过自己的行为来表明自己的立场,从而加入对英雄和烈士的崇拜。为了证明这一点,我们可以看看 1917 年革命之前妇女在俄国革命运动中的非凡参与。
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引用次数: 0
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