Pub Date : 2024-02-19DOI: 10.1177/00223433231220252
Michal Smetana
Do leaders in nondemocratic regimes face public backlash when they threaten to use military force and back down? Whether citizens disapprove of empty threats is central to studying the domestic ‘audience costs’ in international crisis bargaining, but there is little experimental evidence of this phenomenon from autocracies. In this research article, I present the results of an original survey experiment investigating the microfoundations of domestic audience costs in the Russian Federation. My findings showed that even in Putin’s Russia, the citizens expressed attitudes in line with the audience costs theory. However, I also demonstrate that the effect of audience costs treatments was significantly stronger for the opponents of the current Russian leadership than for the supporters. The results of this study represent an important contribution to the existing literature by providing micro-level empirical evidence from a personalist nondemocratic regime.
{"title":"Microfoundations of domestic audience costs in nondemocratic regimes: Experimental evidence from Putin’s Russia","authors":"Michal Smetana","doi":"10.1177/00223433231220252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231220252","url":null,"abstract":"Do leaders in nondemocratic regimes face public backlash when they threaten to use military force and back down? Whether citizens disapprove of empty threats is central to studying the domestic ‘audience costs’ in international crisis bargaining, but there is little experimental evidence of this phenomenon from autocracies. In this research article, I present the results of an original survey experiment investigating the microfoundations of domestic audience costs in the Russian Federation. My findings showed that even in Putin’s Russia, the citizens expressed attitudes in line with the audience costs theory. However, I also demonstrate that the effect of audience costs treatments was significantly stronger for the opponents of the current Russian leadership than for the supporters. The results of this study represent an important contribution to the existing literature by providing micro-level empirical evidence from a personalist nondemocratic regime.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140450202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-14DOI: 10.1177/00223433231215751
Guillermo Kreiman
The last two decades have witnessed an impressive expansion in the analysis of the causes, dynamics and legacies of internal armed conflicts. However, two relevant limitations persist. First, standard conflict datasets suffer from selection bias. And second, most available data lack a temporal approach that facilitates the analysis of insurgent lifecycles from the inception until the demobilization of non-state armed groups. To partially fill this gap, this article presents a novel dataset on revolutionary socialist insurgencies that were created in Latin America (LA) between 1950 and 2016. The Latin American Guerrillas Dataset (LAGD) covers the actions of 90 guerrilla organizations in 19 countries in the region, including annual level data on a variety of variables, such as level of success, political wings, rebel diplomacy, rebel governance, or number of combatants, among others. The LAGD represents one of the first systematic efforts for collecting comparative evidence on insurgencies operating in LA and should facilitate rigorous analyses on the divergent pathways of armed groups from a processual perspective, while dealing with extant issues of selection bias.
{"title":"Revolutionary days: Introducing the Latin American Guerrillas Dataset","authors":"Guillermo Kreiman","doi":"10.1177/00223433231215751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231215751","url":null,"abstract":"The last two decades have witnessed an impressive expansion in the analysis of the causes, dynamics and legacies of internal armed conflicts. However, two relevant limitations persist. First, standard conflict datasets suffer from selection bias. And second, most available data lack a temporal approach that facilitates the analysis of insurgent lifecycles from the inception until the demobilization of non-state armed groups. To partially fill this gap, this article presents a novel dataset on revolutionary socialist insurgencies that were created in Latin America (LA) between 1950 and 2016. The Latin American Guerrillas Dataset (LAGD) covers the actions of 90 guerrilla organizations in 19 countries in the region, including annual level data on a variety of variables, such as level of success, political wings, rebel diplomacy, rebel governance, or number of combatants, among others. The LAGD represents one of the first systematic efforts for collecting comparative evidence on insurgencies operating in LA and should facilitate rigorous analyses on the divergent pathways of armed groups from a processual perspective, while dealing with extant issues of selection bias.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139838651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-14DOI: 10.1177/00223433231215751
Guillermo Kreiman
The last two decades have witnessed an impressive expansion in the analysis of the causes, dynamics and legacies of internal armed conflicts. However, two relevant limitations persist. First, standard conflict datasets suffer from selection bias. And second, most available data lack a temporal approach that facilitates the analysis of insurgent lifecycles from the inception until the demobilization of non-state armed groups. To partially fill this gap, this article presents a novel dataset on revolutionary socialist insurgencies that were created in Latin America (LA) between 1950 and 2016. The Latin American Guerrillas Dataset (LAGD) covers the actions of 90 guerrilla organizations in 19 countries in the region, including annual level data on a variety of variables, such as level of success, political wings, rebel diplomacy, rebel governance, or number of combatants, among others. The LAGD represents one of the first systematic efforts for collecting comparative evidence on insurgencies operating in LA and should facilitate rigorous analyses on the divergent pathways of armed groups from a processual perspective, while dealing with extant issues of selection bias.
{"title":"Revolutionary days: Introducing the Latin American Guerrillas Dataset","authors":"Guillermo Kreiman","doi":"10.1177/00223433231215751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231215751","url":null,"abstract":"The last two decades have witnessed an impressive expansion in the analysis of the causes, dynamics and legacies of internal armed conflicts. However, two relevant limitations persist. First, standard conflict datasets suffer from selection bias. And second, most available data lack a temporal approach that facilitates the analysis of insurgent lifecycles from the inception until the demobilization of non-state armed groups. To partially fill this gap, this article presents a novel dataset on revolutionary socialist insurgencies that were created in Latin America (LA) between 1950 and 2016. The Latin American Guerrillas Dataset (LAGD) covers the actions of 90 guerrilla organizations in 19 countries in the region, including annual level data on a variety of variables, such as level of success, political wings, rebel diplomacy, rebel governance, or number of combatants, among others. The LAGD represents one of the first systematic efforts for collecting comparative evidence on insurgencies operating in LA and should facilitate rigorous analyses on the divergent pathways of armed groups from a processual perspective, while dealing with extant issues of selection bias.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139779011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.1177/00223433231220261
Kiran Stallone, J. Zulver
This article uses the case of Colombia to evaluate the gendered risks of social leadership and human rights activism in territories governed by armed groups. Existing data on Colombian human rights and social leader deaths reveals that men leaders are being killed at a much higher rate than women social leaders. In this article, we delve deeper into gendered patterns of violence against men and women leaders by focusing specifically on the content of the threats these leaders receive from armed groups. We analyzed 40 qualitative interviews with men and women social leaders who have worked in nine different conflict regions of Colombia to find that armed actors target men and women leaders with uniquely gender-specific threats. These findings tell us a great deal, not only about how armed groups govern those in the territories they control, but also about the gender biases they hold about men and women leaders who challenge their authority. Although women leader deaths are less common than those of their male counterparts, the threats and violence both receive are grounded in stereotypical gender norms, and thus merit gender-sensitive, context-specific analyses and responses.
{"title":"The gendered risks of defending rights in armed conflict: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Kiran Stallone, J. Zulver","doi":"10.1177/00223433231220261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231220261","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses the case of Colombia to evaluate the gendered risks of social leadership and human rights activism in territories governed by armed groups. Existing data on Colombian human rights and social leader deaths reveals that men leaders are being killed at a much higher rate than women social leaders. In this article, we delve deeper into gendered patterns of violence against men and women leaders by focusing specifically on the content of the threats these leaders receive from armed groups. We analyzed 40 qualitative interviews with men and women social leaders who have worked in nine different conflict regions of Colombia to find that armed actors target men and women leaders with uniquely gender-specific threats. These findings tell us a great deal, not only about how armed groups govern those in the territories they control, but also about the gender biases they hold about men and women leaders who challenge their authority. Although women leader deaths are less common than those of their male counterparts, the threats and violence both receive are grounded in stereotypical gender norms, and thus merit gender-sensitive, context-specific analyses and responses.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139799791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.1177/00223433231220261
Kiran Stallone, J. Zulver
This article uses the case of Colombia to evaluate the gendered risks of social leadership and human rights activism in territories governed by armed groups. Existing data on Colombian human rights and social leader deaths reveals that men leaders are being killed at a much higher rate than women social leaders. In this article, we delve deeper into gendered patterns of violence against men and women leaders by focusing specifically on the content of the threats these leaders receive from armed groups. We analyzed 40 qualitative interviews with men and women social leaders who have worked in nine different conflict regions of Colombia to find that armed actors target men and women leaders with uniquely gender-specific threats. These findings tell us a great deal, not only about how armed groups govern those in the territories they control, but also about the gender biases they hold about men and women leaders who challenge their authority. Although women leader deaths are less common than those of their male counterparts, the threats and violence both receive are grounded in stereotypical gender norms, and thus merit gender-sensitive, context-specific analyses and responses.
{"title":"The gendered risks of defending rights in armed conflict: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Kiran Stallone, J. Zulver","doi":"10.1177/00223433231220261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231220261","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses the case of Colombia to evaluate the gendered risks of social leadership and human rights activism in territories governed by armed groups. Existing data on Colombian human rights and social leader deaths reveals that men leaders are being killed at a much higher rate than women social leaders. In this article, we delve deeper into gendered patterns of violence against men and women leaders by focusing specifically on the content of the threats these leaders receive from armed groups. We analyzed 40 qualitative interviews with men and women social leaders who have worked in nine different conflict regions of Colombia to find that armed actors target men and women leaders with uniquely gender-specific threats. These findings tell us a great deal, not only about how armed groups govern those in the territories they control, but also about the gender biases they hold about men and women leaders who challenge their authority. Although women leader deaths are less common than those of their male counterparts, the threats and violence both receive are grounded in stereotypical gender norms, and thus merit gender-sensitive, context-specific analyses and responses.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139859955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-05DOI: 10.1177/00223433231214417
W. Akoto
Traditional conceptions of state-sponsored cyber economic espionage suggest that countries with different product profiles should experience high levels of espionage between them. However, this is not what we observe empirically. Incidence of economic espionage tends to be prevalent between countries with similar product and manufacturing profiles. This suggests that we may be missing critical parts of what drives state-sponsored cyber economic espionage. To help unravel this puzzle, I develop a novel theoretical framework that proposes that because attackers seek to maximize the expected utility of stolen information, they target countries that possess similar productive capabilities as themselves. Consequently, countries with dissimilar product profiles should avoid targeting each other for espionage. I test this argument using data on states’ product complexities and cyber economic espionage for a global sample of countries in a dyadic analytical framework. The results robustly show that for any pair of countries, as the complexities of their products diverge, they become significantly less likely to aim espionage attempts at each other. This study thus contributes new insights to explain why cyber economic espionage appears restricted to only a small number of advanced economies. It also illustrates the utility of large-N dyadic approaches in studying state-sponsored cyber espionage.
关于国家支持的网络经济间谍活动的传统概念认为，具有不同产品特征的国家之间应该会发生大量间谍活动。然而，我们的经验并非如此。在产品和制造业情况相似的国家之间，经济间谍活动的发生率往往很高。这表明，我们可能遗漏了国家支持的网络经济间谍活动的关键驱动因素。为了帮助揭开这个谜团，我建立了一个新颖的理论框架，提出由于攻击者寻求最大化被盗信息的预期效用，他们将目标锁定在与自己拥有类似生产能力的国家。因此，具有不同产品特征的国家应避免相互成为间谍活动的目标。我在一个二元分析框架中，使用全球样本国家的产品复杂性和网络经济间谍活动的数据，对这一论点进行了检验。结果有力地表明，对于任何一对国家来说，随着其产品复杂程度的不同，它们将间谍企图瞄准对方的可能性会大大降低。因此，这项研究为解释为什么网络经济间谍活动似乎仅限于少数发达经济体提供了新的见解。同时，它也说明了大 N 线性方法在研究国家支持的网络间谍活动中的实用性。
{"title":"Who spies on whom? Unravelling the puzzle of state-sponsored cyber economic espionage","authors":"W. Akoto","doi":"10.1177/00223433231214417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231214417","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional conceptions of state-sponsored cyber economic espionage suggest that countries with different product profiles should experience high levels of espionage between them. However, this is not what we observe empirically. Incidence of economic espionage tends to be prevalent between countries with similar product and manufacturing profiles. This suggests that we may be missing critical parts of what drives state-sponsored cyber economic espionage. To help unravel this puzzle, I develop a novel theoretical framework that proposes that because attackers seek to maximize the expected utility of stolen information, they target countries that possess similar productive capabilities as themselves. Consequently, countries with dissimilar product profiles should avoid targeting each other for espionage. I test this argument using data on states’ product complexities and cyber economic espionage for a global sample of countries in a dyadic analytical framework. The results robustly show that for any pair of countries, as the complexities of their products diverge, they become significantly less likely to aim espionage attempts at each other. This study thus contributes new insights to explain why cyber economic espionage appears restricted to only a small number of advanced economies. It also illustrates the utility of large-N dyadic approaches in studying state-sponsored cyber espionage.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139802714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-01DOI: 10.1177/00223433231211766
Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi
Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country’s memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.
{"title":"Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements","authors":"Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi","doi":"10.1177/00223433231211766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231211766","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country’s memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139938941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433231214406
Celeste Beesley, Eliza Riley Oak
While studies show that the public disapproves of trade with adversaries, political discourse has historically used security rhetoric to both justify and oppose trade with threatening states. Does emphasizing the potential of trade to exacerbate or mitigate security risks sway public opinion? Is public opinion malleable regardless of the level of threat? These questions become increasingly important as security and economic interactions between states become more intertwined. In a 2019 survey experiment, Ukrainian citizens report more optimism about the effects of trade with Russia (engaged in conflict with Ukraine since 2014) when told that trade decreases security risks. They are more pessimistic when presented with information that trade increases the risk of conflict. In contrast, attitudes about trade with a non-threatening trading partner (the European Union) are unaffected. This study demonstrates that the security effects of trade can both improve and worsen attitudes about trade with politically salient adversaries, even in the context of actual conflict. However, security rhetoric is unlikely to change public opinion about trade with non-threatening states unless they are viewed as reliable allies. Public opinion about trade, thus, responds to rhetoric about security, rather than representing an inflexible constraint on firms’ and states’ trade with adversaries.
{"title":"Public opinion on trading with the enemy: Trade’s effects on the risk of war","authors":"Celeste Beesley, Eliza Riley Oak","doi":"10.1177/00223433231214406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231214406","url":null,"abstract":"While studies show that the public disapproves of trade with adversaries, political discourse has historically used security rhetoric to both justify and oppose trade with threatening states. Does emphasizing the potential of trade to exacerbate or mitigate security risks sway public opinion? Is public opinion malleable regardless of the level of threat? These questions become increasingly important as security and economic interactions between states become more intertwined. In a 2019 survey experiment, Ukrainian citizens report more optimism about the effects of trade with Russia (engaged in conflict with Ukraine since 2014) when told that trade decreases security risks. They are more pessimistic when presented with information that trade increases the risk of conflict. In contrast, attitudes about trade with a non-threatening trading partner (the European Union) are unaffected. This study demonstrates that the security effects of trade can both improve and worsen attitudes about trade with politically salient adversaries, even in the context of actual conflict. However, security rhetoric is unlikely to change public opinion about trade with non-threatening states unless they are viewed as reliable allies. Public opinion about trade, thus, responds to rhetoric about security, rather than representing an inflexible constraint on firms’ and states’ trade with adversaries.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433231218178
Eric Jardine, Nathaniel Porter, Ryan Shandler
When it comes to cybersecurity incidents – public opinion matters. But how do voters form opinions in the aftermath of cyberattacks that are shrouded in ambiguity? How do people account for the uncertainty inherent in cyberspace to forge preferences following attacks? This article seeks to answer these questions by introducing an uncertainty threshold mechanism predicting the level of attributional certainty required for the public to support economic, diplomatic or military responses following cyberattacks. Using a discrete-choice experimental design with 2025 US respondents, we find lower attributional certainty is associated with less support for retaliation, yet this mechanism is contingent on the suspected identity of the attacker and partisan identity. Diplomatic allies possess a reservoir of good will that amplifies the effect of uncertainty, while rivals are less often given the benefit of the doubt. We demonstrate that uncertainty encourages the use of cognitive schemas to overcome ambiguity, and that people fall back upon pre-existing and politically guided views about the suspected country behind an attack. If the ambiguity surrounding cyberattacks has typically been discussed as an operational and strategic concern, this article shifts the focus of attention to the human level and positions the mass public as a forgotten yet important party during cyber conflict.
{"title":"Cyberattacks and public opinion – The effect of uncertainty in guiding preferences","authors":"Eric Jardine, Nathaniel Porter, Ryan Shandler","doi":"10.1177/00223433231218178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231218178","url":null,"abstract":"When it comes to cybersecurity incidents – public opinion matters. But how do voters form opinions in the aftermath of cyberattacks that are shrouded in ambiguity? How do people account for the uncertainty inherent in cyberspace to forge preferences following attacks? This article seeks to answer these questions by introducing an uncertainty threshold mechanism predicting the level of attributional certainty required for the public to support economic, diplomatic or military responses following cyberattacks. Using a discrete-choice experimental design with 2025 US respondents, we find lower attributional certainty is associated with less support for retaliation, yet this mechanism is contingent on the suspected identity of the attacker and partisan identity. Diplomatic allies possess a reservoir of good will that amplifies the effect of uncertainty, while rivals are less often given the benefit of the doubt. We demonstrate that uncertainty encourages the use of cognitive schemas to overcome ambiguity, and that people fall back upon pre-existing and politically guided views about the suspected country behind an attack. If the ambiguity surrounding cyberattacks has typically been discussed as an operational and strategic concern, this article shifts the focus of attention to the human level and positions the mass public as a forgotten yet important party during cyber conflict.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433231202822
Tomila V. Lankina, Alexander Libman, Katerina Tertytchnaya
How does state-led repression targeting communities influence the social reproduction of victimized groups? Although several excellent studies have explored the sociopolitical consequences of a broad set of conflict-trauma legacies, notably, communal, religious and kinship drivers of responses to state violence, few researchers have explored the mechanisms of social status preservation under violence. The omission of class and social status from conflict research is puzzling considering that millions of people from Cambodia to China and from Russia to Hungary have suffered from state-led violence that targeted entire social groups and communities – from monks and priests with privileged positions in the social hierarchies, to the aristocracy and bourgeoisie. To generate theory about the mechanisms of social submission, adaptation or resistance in the face of group-based repressions, we explored the effects of Soviet repressions on the survival choices and reproduction of the Tzarist educated strata. For our analysis, we deployed subnational data on repressions and social structure and combined this with novel survey evidence and archival sources. We found that, contrary to conventional wisdom, repressions did not prevent the Imperial educated estates from engaging in habitual status- and identity-enhancing pursuits. Throughout the Soviet period, these groups continued to aspire to higher education and professional achievement. What is more, we show that continuity in pursuits was more common in places with more extensive repressions and a larger ‘stock’ of pre-Revolutionary middle classes. We propose that in-group social bonding and permissive political opportunities facilitated social adaptation. Our findings contribute to conflict and social resilience literature.
{"title":"State violence and target group adaptation: Maintaining social status in the face of repressions in Soviet Russia","authors":"Tomila V. Lankina, Alexander Libman, Katerina Tertytchnaya","doi":"10.1177/00223433231202822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231202822","url":null,"abstract":"How does state-led repression targeting communities influence the social reproduction of victimized groups? Although several excellent studies have explored the sociopolitical consequences of a broad set of conflict-trauma legacies, notably, communal, religious and kinship drivers of responses to state violence, few researchers have explored the mechanisms of social status preservation under violence. The omission of class and social status from conflict research is puzzling considering that millions of people from Cambodia to China and from Russia to Hungary have suffered from state-led violence that targeted entire social groups and communities – from monks and priests with privileged positions in the social hierarchies, to the aristocracy and bourgeoisie. To generate theory about the mechanisms of social submission, adaptation or resistance in the face of group-based repressions, we explored the effects of Soviet repressions on the survival choices and reproduction of the Tzarist educated strata. For our analysis, we deployed subnational data on repressions and social structure and combined this with novel survey evidence and archival sources. We found that, contrary to conventional wisdom, repressions did not prevent the Imperial educated estates from engaging in habitual status- and identity-enhancing pursuits. Throughout the Soviet period, these groups continued to aspire to higher education and professional achievement. What is more, we show that continuity in pursuits was more common in places with more extensive repressions and a larger ‘stock’ of pre-Revolutionary middle classes. We propose that in-group social bonding and permissive political opportunities facilitated social adaptation. Our findings contribute to conflict and social resilience literature.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140482999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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