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The challenges of surveying in war zones: Lessons from Ukraine 战争地区测量的挑战:来自乌克兰的教训
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251321763
Kit Rickard, Gerard Toal, Kristin M Bakke, John O’Loughlin
Conflict scholars commonly employ public opinion surveys to understand the causes and consequences of violence. However, surveying in wartime presents a distinctive set of challenges. We examine two challenges facing polling in countries at war: under-coverage of national samples and response bias. Although these issues are acknowledged in the literature on surveying methods, they become significantly more pronounced in war zones due to the geographic clustering of violence and the heightened sensitivity surrounding certain opinions. We illustrate these challenges in the context of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, drawing on original panel survey data tracing the attitudes of the same people in Ukraine prior to and after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. We show that unit and item non-response bias in surveys conducted during the war are related to respondents’ political orientation, particularly their support for NATO membership measured in 2019. We conclude with lessons for those employing survey methods in wartime, and point to steps forward, in Ukraine and beyond.
冲突问题学者通常采用民意调查来了解暴力的原因和后果。然而,战时调查面临着一系列独特的挑战。我们研究了战时国家民意调查面临的两个挑战:国家样本覆盖不足和回应偏差。尽管这些问题在有关调查方法的文献中已得到承认,但由于暴力事件在地理上的聚集性以及围绕某些观点的高度敏感性,它们在战区变得更加突出。我们以正在进行的俄乌战争为背景,利用原始面板调查数据,追踪了 2022 年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前和之后乌克兰境内相同人群的态度,从而说明了这些挑战。我们表明,战争期间进行的调查中的单位和项目非响应偏差与受访者的政治取向有关,尤其是他们对 2019 年北约成员资格的支持度。最后,我们为那些在战时采用调查方法的人提供了经验教训,并指出了在乌克兰及其他地区的前进方向。
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引用次数: 0
International economic sanctions and conflict prevention in self-determination disputes 国际经济制裁和预防自决争端中的冲突
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251317460
David E Cunningham, Madeline Fleishman, Peter B White
Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community – economic sanctions. We examine the impact of sanctions targeted against states with self-determination (SD) disputes. We argue that the threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation in these disputes, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of escalation to civil war will decrease. We conduct a series of statistical tests of the effect of threatened and imposed sanctions against the state on armed conflict onset in SD disputes, accommodation of SD groups, and repression. We find that threatened sanctions decrease the likelihood of armed conflict onset, make government accommodation of SD groups more likely, and lead to overall decreases in repression by the state. Imposed sanctions, meanwhile, increase the risk of civil war in the next year, but this effect dissipates over time. These results suggest that sanction threats can be a useful tool of conflict prevention, but failed threats can increase the risk of escalations of violence in SD disputes.
国际制裁能阻止内战吗?尽管在学术上和政策上越来越重视预防冲突,但我们对国际社会常用的一种工具- -经济制裁- -的影响缺乏了解。我们研究了针对有自决争端国家的制裁的影响。我们认为,制裁的威胁会导致各国在这些争端中减少镇压,增加和解,从而降低内战的可能性。然而,制裁的实施刺激了政府加大镇压力度,使国家成为持不同政见者更有吸引力的目标。这两种情况都使内战在短期内更有可能发生。然而,随着时间的推移,各国能够适应制裁制度带来的新经济现实,升级为内战的风险将降低。我们进行了一系列统计测试,以检验威胁和实施的对国家的制裁对sdg争端中武装冲突的发生、sdg团体的迁就和镇压的影响。我们发现,威胁制裁降低了武装冲突爆发的可能性,使政府更有可能迁就SD群体,并导致国家镇压的总体减少。与此同时,实施的制裁增加了明年爆发内战的风险,但这种影响会随着时间的推移而消散。这些结果表明,制裁威胁可能是预防冲突的有用工具,但失败的威胁可能增加可持续发展争端中暴力升级的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Protection from afar? Diaspora support for rebel groups and civilian victimization 来自远方的保护?侨民支持反叛组织和平民受害
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251317116
Sara Daub
How does diaspora sponsorship of rebel organizations impact civilian victimization? This article argues that diasporas have an affinity for their kin and therefore, an interest in civilian protection. By applying a principal–agent framework to understand diaspora sponsorship to rebel organizations, it highlights how a diaspora, acting as a principal, can reduce violence against civilians perpetrated by a rebel organization, the agent. While rebel organizations may utilize civilian victimization, this article hypothesizes that they restrain violence because of diaspora sponsorship. The article draws on novel data on diaspora support, coupled with data on civilian victimization in the context of armed conflicts in Africa and Asia from 1989 to 2014. The findings demonstrate a statistically significant negative effect of diaspora sponsorship on rebel groups’ violence against civilians. Homeland-related factors reveal heterogeneous effects of diaspora sponsorship on one-sided violence. The article generates an in-depth understanding of a diaspora’s agency as a non-state sponsor for rebel organizations and contributes to the scholarship on civilian victimization during armed conflicts and external sponsorship. It offers avenues for understanding the role of diaspora groups as sponsors.
对叛军组织的海外赞助如何影响平民受害?这篇文章认为,散居者与他们的亲属有一种亲缘关系,因此,他们对保护平民有兴趣。通过应用委托-代理框架来理解散居侨民对反叛组织的赞助,它突出了散居侨民作为委托人如何能够减少反叛组织(代理人)对平民犯下的暴力行为。虽然反叛组织可能利用平民受害,但本文假设,由于侨民赞助,他们抑制了暴力。本文借鉴了关于侨民支持的新数据,以及1989年至2014年非洲和亚洲武装冲突背景下平民受害的数据。调查结果表明,从统计上看,侨民赞助对反叛组织对平民的暴力行为有显著的负面影响。与祖国相关的因素揭示了侨民赞助对单方面暴力的异质性影响。这篇文章深入了解了侨民作为反叛组织的非国家赞助者的机构,并有助于研究武装冲突和外部赞助期间平民受害问题。它为理解侨民团体作为赞助者的作用提供了途径。
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引用次数: 0
Studying conflict-related sexual violence: What does it mean for researchers’ well-being? 研究与冲突有关的性暴力:这对研究人员的福祉意味着什么?
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241309167
Michele Leiby, Inger Skjelsbæk, Kim Thuy Seelinger
This article focuses on researcher distress and well-being. It presents a survey carried out with scholars engaged in conflict-related sexual violence research from various disciplines. Respondents were asked about how they reacted to the research they engaged in and how their respective academic institutions supported them. Academia’s understanding of and preparedness for research-related distress is limited. While there is a focus on researcher safety in the field, typically from the perspective of institutional insurance and liability, there is less focus on researcher well-being. Our findings suggest that there is a need, and indeed willingness, to address distress and well-being within the conflict-related sexual violence research community. The ability to do so, however, depends in large part on the institutional setting of the individual researcher. We find there are institutional differences between the fields of political science, law, history, and international relations on the one hand where scholars report more difficulties, than within the fields of anthropology, social work, psychology, public health, and gender studies, which appear more trauma aware. The findings show that there are great variations between different scholarly disciplines and institutions. We find a clear need to address these topics not only in academic reflections in scholarly articles, but also on institutional levels within academic communities.
这篇文章的重点是研究人员的痛苦和幸福。它提出了一项与来自不同学科从事与冲突有关的性暴力研究的学者进行的调查。受访者被问及他们对所从事的研究的反应以及各自的学术机构如何支持他们。学术界对与研究相关的痛苦的理解和准备是有限的。虽然该领域通常从机构保险和责任的角度关注研究人员的安全,但对研究人员福祉的关注较少。我们的研究结果表明,在与冲突有关的性暴力研究社区中,有必要,而且确实愿意解决痛苦和幸福问题。然而,这样做的能力在很大程度上取决于个别研究人员的机构环境。我们发现,政治科学、法律、历史和国际关系领域之间存在制度差异,一方面,这些领域的学者报告的困难比人类学、社会工作、心理学、公共卫生和性别研究领域的学者报告的困难更多,而人类学、社会工作、心理学、公共卫生和性别研究领域的学者似乎更多地意识到创伤。研究结果表明,不同的学术学科和机构之间存在很大差异。我们发现,不仅需要在学术文章的学术反思中解决这些问题,而且需要在学术界的制度层面上解决这些问题。
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引用次数: 0
The Journal of Peace Research is excited to announce that the Nils Petter Gleditsch Article of the Year Award for 2024 goes to Melanie Sauter! 《和平研究杂志》很高兴地宣布,2024年尼尔斯·皮特·格莱迪奇年度文章奖颁给了梅勒妮·索特!
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251322306
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引用次数: 0
The Journal of Peace Research is excited to announce that the 2024 JPR Best Visualization Award has been awarded to Masanori Kikuchi! 《和平研究杂志》激动地宣布,2024年JPR最佳可视化奖授予菊池正典!
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251322305
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引用次数: 0
Introducing new data on UN Special Political Mission Mandated Tasks (UNSPMMT) 介绍关于联合国特别政治特派团授权任务的新数据
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251317816
Wakako Maekawa
Whereas United Nations Special Political Missions are established following UN Peacekeeping Operations or as substitute measures to enhance peace and security, studies have paid little attention to what United Nations Special Political Missions do and whether they are effective. The UN Special Political Mission Mandated Tasks Dataset provides new data on United Nations Special Political Mission-mandated tasks between 1993 and 2021. The dataset covers traditional and relatively new mandated tasks, such as those concerned with the enhancement of the rule of law and addressing climate change mitigation and counter-terrorism, respectively. To illustrate the usefulness of the data, this study investigates the effectiveness of the election-mandated task of United Nations Special Political Missions as an exit strategy of UN Peacekeeping Operations on democratisation. The results show that election-mandated tasks improve the quality of democracy. It helps unpack the mixed results of the UN’s effectiveness in enhancing democratisation in post-conflict countries, implying that its intervention matters through both peacekeeping and political mission mandates. This dataset helps researchers investigate the interactive effects of mandates and provides insights into the sequence of peacebuilding strategies.
鉴于联合国特别政治特派团是在联合国维持和平行动之后设立的,或作为加强和平与安全的替代措施,研究很少关注联合国特别政治特派团的工作以及它们是否有效。联合国特别政治特派团授权任务数据集提供了1993年至2021年联合国特别政治特派团授权任务的新数据。该数据集涵盖传统的和相对较新的授权任务,例如与加强法治和应对气候变化减缓和反恐有关的任务。为了说明数据的有用性,本研究调查了联合国特别政治特派团选举授权任务作为联合国维持和平行动民主化退出战略的有效性。结果表明,选举授权的任务提高了民主的质量。它有助于揭示联合国在加强冲突后国家民主化方面的有效性所产生的好坏参半的结果,暗示其通过维和和政治任务授权进行干预是重要的。该数据集有助于研究人员调查任务的相互作用,并提供对建设和平战略顺序的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing the UNSCRA dataset: authoring Security Council draft resolutions, 1990–2023 介绍联合国安理会数据集:编写安全理事会决议草案,1990-2023
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251315634
Andrea Knapp
While United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions are widely studied, there is only limited information about their authors. Previous studies have argued that the states that draft resolutions exert sizeable influence over their content, but the lack of comprehensive data has hindered any systematic investigations into their agency, role and motivation when authoring resolutions. This article introduces the United Nations Security Council Resolution Authors (UNSCRA) dataset, which collects information on sponsors (1990–2023) and lead negotiators (2008–2023) for 2,179 drafts tabled at the United Nations Security Council, and illustrates its value through descriptive analysis. UNSCRA provides unique insights on drafts (e.g. agenda items and votes) and author profiles (e.g. numbers and regional distribution). The data coded on a draft-specific level open new avenues for research on states’ influence and interests at the UNSC.
虽然联合国安理会(UNSC)的决议被广泛研究,但关于其作者的信息却很有限。以往的研究认为,起草决议草案的国家对其内容施加了相当大的影响,但由于缺乏全面的数据,阻碍了对其机构、作用和起草决议的动机进行系统调查。本文介绍了联合国安理会决议作者(UNSCRA)数据集,该数据集收集了联合国安理会提交的2179份草案的提案国(1990-2023年)和主要谈判代表(2008-2023年)的信息,并通过描述性分析说明了其价值。联合国安理会提供关于草案(如议程项目和投票)和作者简介(如数量和地区分布)的独特见解。在具体草案一级编码的数据为研究各国在安理会的影响和利益开辟了新的途径。
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引用次数: 0
The political viability of AI on the battlefield: Examining US public support, trust, and blame dynamics 人工智能在战场上的政治可行性:审视美国公众的支持、信任和指责动态
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241290885
Zachary Zwald, Ryan Kennedy, Adam Ozer
This study examines how the public views the use of artificial intelligence (AI) on the battlefield. We conduct three survey experiments on a representative sample of the US public to examine how variation in the level of human-machine autonomy affects the public’s support for the use of military force, the public’s trust in such systems (both in their reliability and interpersonal trust), and the level of blame the public places on drone operators when a mistake results in civilian deaths. Existing research on these questions remains quite thin, the data available often point in many directions, and the structure of those studies tends to prevent comparing divergent results. Our findings show that variation between full machine and human autonomy has little effect on the public’s trust in reliability. We also find that both interpersonal trust and blame in the military operator decline as machine autonomy increases. These results suggest multiple paths for future research and provide insight on the on-going policy debate over the viability of the Martens Clause as a basis for banning the military use of AI-enabled systems.
这项研究调查了公众如何看待在战场上使用人工智能(AI)。我们对美国公众的代表性样本进行了三项调查实验,以研究人机自主水平的变化如何影响公众对使用军事力量的支持,公众对此类系统的信任(包括其可靠性和人际信任),以及当失误导致平民死亡时公众对无人机操作员的指责程度。对这些问题的现有研究仍然相当薄弱,可用的数据往往指向许多方向,而这些研究的结构往往不利于比较不同的结果。我们的研究结果表明,完全机器和人类自主之间的差异对公众对可靠性的信任几乎没有影响。我们还发现,随着机器自主性的增加,军事操作员的人际信任和责备都在下降。这些结果为未来的研究提供了多种途径,并为正在进行的关于《马丁斯条款》作为禁止军事使用人工智能系统的基础的可行性的政策辩论提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia 东南亚社会冲突的农业根源
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241305990
Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands of Southeast Asia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents covering 376 one-degree cells across eight Southeast Asian countries, we estimate a general increase in political violence and a decrease in social unrest in croplands with rice production during the harvest season relative to the rest of the crop year. In a finding that is least sensitive to alternative model specifications and data subsetting, we estimate a 9% increase in violence against civilians in locations with considerable rice production compared to other parts of the region during the harvest season, relative to the rest of the year. We show that the harvest-time changes in conflict are most evident in rural cells with rainfed agriculture. Using location-specific annual variation in growing season rainfall, we then show that the harvest-time increase in violence against civilians occurs in presumably good harvest years, whereas increase in battles between actors of political violence follows growing seasons with scarce rainfall. The harvest-time decrease in social unrest, protests in particular, occurs after presumably bad harvest years. These findings contribute to research on the agroclimatic and economic roots of conflict and offer insights to policymakers by suggesting the spatiotemporal concentration of conflict as well as diverging effects by forms of conflict at harvest time in the rice-producing regions of Southeast Asia.
我们研究了东南亚水稻产区的就业和收入的收获期短暂变化是否会导致政治暴力和社会动荡的变化。我们利用2010年至2023年8个东南亚国家376个1度单元的86000多起事件的月度数据估计,相对于作物年的其他时间,收获季节水稻种植区的政治暴力事件普遍增加,社会动荡有所减少。在一项对替代模型规格和数据子集最不敏感的发现中,我们估计,在收获季节,与该地区其他地区相比,针对平民的暴力行为增加了9%。我们表明,冲突中的收获时间变化在雨养农业的农村细胞中最为明显。使用生长季节降雨量的特定地点年度变化,我们然后表明,收获季节针对平民的暴力增加发生在可能的丰收年,而政治暴力行为者之间的战斗增加发生在降雨稀少的生长季节。社会动荡,尤其是抗议活动的减少发生在可能歉收的年份之后。这些发现有助于研究冲突的农业气候和经济根源,并通过提出冲突的时空集中以及东南亚水稻产区收获季节冲突形式的差异影响,为政策制定者提供见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Peace Research
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