Pub Date : 2025-03-13DOI: 10.1177/00223433241305907
Tiffany D Barnes, Jesse C Johnson, Anne Marie McAtee, Gargi Vyas
One of the most shocking aspects of civil war is the prevalence of sexual violence committed by armed groups. Recent research identifies many of the factors driving this horrific phenomenon. What is generally lacking, however, is an understanding of the factors that can prevent conflict-related sexual violence. We argue that women’s economic rights are key. Women’s economic rights provide women with the ability to flee dangerous war zones, work in less vulnerable environments, and access to safe housing. We test our claims using a global sample of civil conflicts from 1989 to 2019. We find evidence that the presence of robust women’s economic rights is associated with significantly lower levels of observed sexual violence in civil conflicts, even after controlling for a variety of potential confounders. Additionally, we probe the possibility of egalitarian gender norms driving our results by examining the relationship between women’s political empowerment and conflict-related sexual violence. We find no relationship between women’s political empowerment and conflict-related sexual violence. Importantly, we continue to find a negative relationship between women’s economic rights and conflict-related sexual violence even when accounting for women’s political empowerment, suggesting women’s economic rights have an independent effect on conflict-related sexual violence. Our findings highlight the importance of enhancing women’s economic rights in the global fight against wartime rape. Providing women with greater economic agency has the potential to curb sexual violence in conflicts around the world.
{"title":"Women’s economic rights and sexual violence in civil conflict","authors":"Tiffany D Barnes, Jesse C Johnson, Anne Marie McAtee, Gargi Vyas","doi":"10.1177/00223433241305907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241305907","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most shocking aspects of civil war is the prevalence of sexual violence committed by armed groups. Recent research identifies many of the factors driving this horrific phenomenon. What is generally lacking, however, is an understanding of the factors that can prevent conflict-related sexual violence. We argue that women’s economic rights are key. Women’s economic rights provide women with the ability to flee dangerous war zones, work in less vulnerable environments, and access to safe housing. We test our claims using a global sample of civil conflicts from 1989 to 2019. We find evidence that the presence of robust women’s economic rights is associated with significantly lower levels of observed sexual violence in civil conflicts, even after controlling for a variety of potential confounders. Additionally, we probe the possibility of egalitarian gender norms driving our results by examining the relationship between women’s political empowerment and conflict-related sexual violence. We find no relationship between women’s political empowerment and conflict-related sexual violence. Importantly, we continue to find a negative relationship between women’s economic rights and conflict-related sexual violence even when accounting for women’s political empowerment, suggesting women’s economic rights have an independent effect on conflict-related sexual violence. Our findings highlight the importance of enhancing women’s economic rights in the global fight against wartime rape. Providing women with greater economic agency has the potential to curb sexual violence in conflicts around the world.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143618536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-13DOI: 10.1177/00223433241303285
Linnéa Gelot, Prabin B Khadka
What drives host community preferences towards the reintegration of former Islamist militants? While recognizing the importance of host communities in the reintegration process, empirical evidence on the factors influencing community support for reintegrating former Islamist militants remains limited. We hypothesized that community preferences are shaped along the perceived threat level influenced by three factors: organizational profile, identity traits, and reintegration channels. We empirically examined these using a conjoint survey involving Somali civilians from three cities with disarmament, demobilization and reintegration centers and a separate survey of former al-Shabaab disarmament, demobilization and reintegration graduates. Our results showed that security-related attributes, such as involvement in killings, recruitment history and unit association wielded a substantial influence on threat perceptions. Heightened threat perceptions played a key role in shaping wartime preferences, explaining how host communities categorize security threats. Notably, our results underscored a community preference for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration program graduates and for those granted government amnesty over ex-fighters reintegrated through traditional channels, highlighting the efficacy of formal reintegration channels in managing community threat perceptions compared to informal pathways.
{"title":"Social reintegration of former al-Shabaab militants: How formal channels help mitigate threat perceptions","authors":"Linnéa Gelot, Prabin B Khadka","doi":"10.1177/00223433241303285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241303285","url":null,"abstract":"What drives host community preferences towards the reintegration of former Islamist militants? While recognizing the importance of host communities in the reintegration process, empirical evidence on the factors influencing community support for reintegrating former Islamist militants remains limited. We hypothesized that community preferences are shaped along the perceived threat level influenced by three factors: organizational profile, identity traits, and reintegration channels. We empirically examined these using a conjoint survey involving Somali civilians from three cities with disarmament, demobilization and reintegration centers and a separate survey of former al-Shabaab disarmament, demobilization and reintegration graduates. Our results showed that security-related attributes, such as involvement in killings, recruitment history and unit association wielded a substantial influence on threat perceptions. Heightened threat perceptions played a key role in shaping wartime preferences, explaining how host communities categorize security threats. Notably, our results underscored a community preference for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration program graduates and for those granted government amnesty over ex-fighters reintegrated through traditional channels, highlighting the efficacy of formal reintegration channels in managing community threat perceptions compared to informal pathways.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143618556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-24DOI: 10.1177/00223433241299224
Dogus Aktan
Research on the relationship between repression and dissent has mostly ignored the mechanisms through which repression affects dissent. I distinguish two distinct channels through which repression can deter dissidents. First, preemptive repression works through a functional channel by directly reducing the opposition’s capabilities. Second, the severity of preemptive repression provides information to its target about the strength of government. I use a formal model to demonstrate how these two channels interact, leading to strategic behavior that has not been discussed in previous work. In particular, I show that the functional and informational channels are not necessarily complementary. The model demonstrates that uncertainty about government resolve can increase or decrease observed repression. It also shows that repression can become more effective in deterring dissent when it is more costly and vice versa. Taken together, these results provide a theoretical explanation for the inconsistent empirical findings on the effect of repression on dissent and offer a framework for future research.
{"title":"How does violence deter? Functional and informational effects of preemptive repression","authors":"Dogus Aktan","doi":"10.1177/00223433241299224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241299224","url":null,"abstract":"Research on the relationship between repression and dissent has mostly ignored the mechanisms through which repression affects dissent. I distinguish two distinct channels through which repression can deter dissidents. First, preemptive repression works through a functional channel by directly reducing the opposition’s capabilities. Second, the severity of preemptive repression provides information to its target about the strength of government. I use a formal model to demonstrate how these two channels interact, leading to strategic behavior that has not been discussed in previous work. In particular, I show that the functional and informational channels are not necessarily complementary. The model demonstrates that uncertainty about government resolve can increase or decrease observed repression. It also shows that repression can become more effective in deterring dissent when it is more costly and vice versa. Taken together, these results provide a theoretical explanation for the inconsistent empirical findings on the effect of repression on dissent and offer a framework for future research.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143485771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-15DOI: 10.1177/00223433241303414
Ryan Powers, Austin Strange
How do observers abroad assess the intentions of rising powers? Influential research in international relations suggests that rising powers can reassure others by using both behavior and rhetoric, but there is scarce rigorous evidence on the relative effectiveness of these strategies. In this article, we study whether and to what extent variation in behavioral and rhetorical foreign economic policies of a rising power moderate threat perceptions among observers in a declining power. We used scenario-based survey experiments administered to an elite sample of foreign policy think tank and nongovernmental organization staff and members of the public in the United States. In the experiment, we systematically varied a hypothetical rising power’s foreign aid and investment behavior and rhetoric such that it was represented as either revisionist or status quo oriented. We found that status quo-reinforcing behavior by the rising power generally lowered perceptions of threatening intentions more than status quo-reinforcing statements. However, there was also evidence that when rising powers adopted aid and investment behaviors that were consistent with prevailing norms, rhetorical assurances of satisfaction substantially reduced threat perceptions further. The findings contribute to international relations research on rising power preferences for international order as well as these states’ attempts at reassurance amidst power transitions, particularly in the context of international development.
{"title":"Can rising powers reassure? Shifting power, foreign economic policy and perceptions of revisionist intent","authors":"Ryan Powers, Austin Strange","doi":"10.1177/00223433241303414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241303414","url":null,"abstract":"How do observers abroad assess the intentions of rising powers? Influential research in international relations suggests that rising powers can reassure others by using both behavior and rhetoric, but there is scarce rigorous evidence on the relative effectiveness of these strategies. In this article, we study whether and to what extent variation in behavioral and rhetorical foreign economic policies of a rising power moderate threat perceptions among observers in a declining power. We used scenario-based survey experiments administered to an elite sample of foreign policy think tank and nongovernmental organization staff and members of the public in the United States. In the experiment, we systematically varied a hypothetical rising power’s foreign aid and investment behavior and rhetoric such that it was represented as either revisionist or status quo oriented. We found that status quo-reinforcing behavior by the rising power generally lowered perceptions of threatening intentions more than status quo-reinforcing statements. However, there was also evidence that when rising powers adopted aid and investment behaviors that were consistent with prevailing norms, rhetorical assurances of satisfaction substantially reduced threat perceptions further. The findings contribute to international relations research on rising power preferences for international order as well as these states’ attempts at reassurance amidst power transitions, particularly in the context of international development.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143417264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1177/00223433241300805
Jakob Frizell
Armed conflicts expose states to extraordinary fiscal stress and leave poverty and inequality in their wake. Yet, the fiscal policy responses in contemporary conflict-affected states appear feeble, in striking contrast to historical antecedents, having led to radical and distinctly progressive tax reforms. Whereas extant literature cautions against generalising Western wartime experiences, emphasising qualitative differences in warfare and institutional context, this article argues for the ex ante generality of the link between war and progressive taxation. Accordingly, it elaborates a revised theory of wartime tax bargaining, centred on fiscal need and demand for fiscal fairness, whereby contemporary conflicts, including civil wars, should induce governments to increase taxes, and particularly on the rich. The apparent absence of war-induced progressive taxation in the last decades, in contrast, is overdetermined by international shifts at the end of the Cold War and its influence on local wartime elites. Statistically analysing newly collected data on top personal income tax rates for all conflict-affected countries 1960–2020, it is shown that the link was strong, general and, contrary to common assumption, applied as much to civil as to interstate wars. The results support the theory, whereby acute revenue needs and war-induced demand for fiscal fairness translate into increased taxes on the rich. The sudden uniform disappearance of the association in the last decades, irrespective of country-level factors, is consistent with an interpretation emphasising global shifts precipitated by the end of the Cold War.
{"title":"The fiscal reckoning of war: Contemporary armed conflict and progressive income taxation","authors":"Jakob Frizell","doi":"10.1177/00223433241300805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241300805","url":null,"abstract":"Armed conflicts expose states to extraordinary fiscal stress and leave poverty and inequality in their wake. Yet, the fiscal policy responses in contemporary conflict-affected states appear feeble, in striking contrast to historical antecedents, having led to radical and distinctly progressive tax reforms. Whereas extant literature cautions against generalising Western wartime experiences, emphasising qualitative differences in warfare and institutional context, this article argues for the ex ante generality of the link between war and progressive taxation. Accordingly, it elaborates a revised theory of wartime tax bargaining, centred on fiscal need and demand for fiscal fairness, whereby contemporary conflicts, including civil wars, should induce governments to increase taxes, and particularly on the rich. The apparent absence of war-induced progressive taxation in the last decades, in contrast, is overdetermined by international shifts at the end of the Cold War and its influence on local wartime elites. Statistically analysing newly collected data on top personal income tax rates for all conflict-affected countries 1960–2020, it is shown that the link was strong, general and, contrary to common assumption, applied as much to civil as to interstate wars. The results support the theory, whereby acute revenue needs and war-induced demand for fiscal fairness translate into increased taxes on the rich. The sudden uniform disappearance of the association in the last decades, irrespective of country-level factors, is consistent with an interpretation emphasising global shifts precipitated by the end of the Cold War.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143191915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1177/00223433241280152
Sabrina B Arias
I introduce a new dataset of all United Nations Security Council and United Nations General Assembly resolutions passed from 1946–2018, as well as machine-learning-based measures of their references to other resolutions, textual alignment, and topics. I suggest applications of this data for a variety of questions in international relations from the development of international law to the influence of state power in international organizations. I illustrate the utility of this dataset by investigating why policymakers employ references in the drafting of legal documents, and how the inclusion of these references affects political outcomes. I draw on theories of international lawmaking to argue that for states deciding whether to vote in favor of a resolution, these references, by signaling ideological consistency with a state’s foreign policy goals and existing consensus amongst negotiators, serve as a strategy to obtain support for resolutions. I found that the inclusion of references did increase political support for resolutions, using my measure of textual alignment to hold resolution text constant while isolating variation in the inclusion of references. I found that even accounting for foreign aid flows as a canonical alternative explanation of vote choice, reference dynamics were an important predictor of state support for resolutions.
{"title":"The textual dynamics of international policymaking: A new corpus of UN resolutions, 1946–2018","authors":"Sabrina B Arias","doi":"10.1177/00223433241280152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241280152","url":null,"abstract":"I introduce a new dataset of all United Nations Security Council and United Nations General Assembly resolutions passed from 1946–2018, as well as machine-learning-based measures of their references to other resolutions, textual alignment, and topics. I suggest applications of this data for a variety of questions in international relations from the development of international law to the influence of state power in international organizations. I illustrate the utility of this dataset by investigating why policymakers employ references in the drafting of legal documents, and how the inclusion of these references affects political outcomes. I draw on theories of international lawmaking to argue that for states deciding whether to vote in favor of a resolution, these references, by signaling ideological consistency with a state’s foreign policy goals and existing consensus amongst negotiators, serve as a strategy to obtain support for resolutions. I found that the inclusion of references did increase political support for resolutions, using my measure of textual alignment to hold resolution text constant while isolating variation in the inclusion of references. I found that even accounting for foreign aid flows as a canonical alternative explanation of vote choice, reference dynamics were an important predictor of state support for resolutions.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143191906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433241294148
Julia Palik, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, David Gomez-Triana, Nicholas Marsh, Ida Rødningen
Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) provisions in peace agreements (PAs) are critical pillars of global peacebuilding efforts. Leading theories suggest that different DDR components address different peacebuilding challenges. Yet existing datasets conceptualize DDR as a binary variable, hindering our ability to observe which DDR components and in what combination are agreed upon by conflict parties and to assess their independent effects on peace. To address this problem, we introduce a global disaggregated dataset on DDR provisions in PAs from 1975 to 2021, identify third-party actors’ involvement, and whether women and children ex-combatants are referenced in the provisions. We show that DDR components do not always come together: 47% of all PAs contain at least one DDR component, but only 26.9% include the full DDR package. Moreover, third-party actors participate in more than half of PAs with at least one DDR provision, and the vast majority of DDR provisions do not reference women and child ex-combatants. We demonstrate the usefulness of our dataset by analyzing the determinants of DDR provisions in PAs. Our analysis shows that different covariates have different effects on different DDR constellations, highlighting the usefulness of our disaggregated approach. The DDR dataset can be a valuable source to better understand the processes, causes, and consequences of DDR provisions.
{"title":"Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration in peace agreements (1975–2021): Introducing the DDR dataset","authors":"Julia Palik, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, David Gomez-Triana, Nicholas Marsh, Ida Rødningen","doi":"10.1177/00223433241294148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241294148","url":null,"abstract":"Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) provisions in peace agreements (PAs) are critical pillars of global peacebuilding efforts. Leading theories suggest that different DDR components address different peacebuilding challenges. Yet existing datasets conceptualize DDR as a binary variable, hindering our ability to observe which DDR components and in what combination are agreed upon by conflict parties and to assess their independent effects on peace. To address this problem, we introduce a global disaggregated dataset on DDR provisions in PAs from 1975 to 2021, identify third-party actors’ involvement, and whether women and children ex-combatants are referenced in the provisions. We show that DDR components do not always come together: 47% of all PAs contain at least one DDR component, but only 26.9% include the full DDR package. Moreover, third-party actors participate in more than half of PAs with at least one DDR provision, and the vast majority of DDR provisions do not reference women and child ex-combatants. We demonstrate the usefulness of our dataset by analyzing the determinants of DDR provisions in PAs. Our analysis shows that different covariates have different effects on different DDR constellations, highlighting the usefulness of our disaggregated approach. The DDR dataset can be a valuable source to better understand the processes, causes, and consequences of DDR provisions.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143072059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433241295838
Andrew Saab
There is substantial evidence that various aspects of violent civil conflict are tied to natural resources, of which diamonds are perhaps the most notorious. While the presence of resources themselves have been given substantial attention, existing works have overlooked a key issue: substitute resources. This article focuses on the geographic distribution of violent conflict relative to natural resource sites as a provider of information on the geostrategic organization and extraction behaviors of insurgents. Using the rise of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, a multilateral regime aimed at regulating the illicit diamond trade, and accounting for the presence of potential substitute resources, empirical evidence indicates that the regulations disrupted and delocalized conflicts away from diamond sites. Moreover, the geography of violent conflict shifted and relocated toward substitute resources such as tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold. These findings suggest that such policy efforts may have adverse unintended consequences on the structure of violent conflict and the expansion of other black markets as a byproduct of regulation-induced changes in extraction incentives.
{"title":"Conflict relocation and blood diamond policy shifts","authors":"Andrew Saab","doi":"10.1177/00223433241295838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241295838","url":null,"abstract":"There is substantial evidence that various aspects of violent civil conflict are tied to natural resources, of which diamonds are perhaps the most notorious. While the presence of resources themselves have been given substantial attention, existing works have overlooked a key issue: substitute resources. This article focuses on the geographic distribution of violent conflict relative to natural resource sites as a provider of information on the geostrategic organization and extraction behaviors of insurgents. Using the rise of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, a multilateral regime aimed at regulating the illicit diamond trade, and accounting for the presence of potential substitute resources, empirical evidence indicates that the regulations disrupted and delocalized conflicts away from diamond sites. Moreover, the geography of violent conflict shifted and relocated toward substitute resources such as tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold. These findings suggest that such policy efforts may have adverse unintended consequences on the structure of violent conflict and the expansion of other black markets as a byproduct of regulation-induced changes in extraction incentives.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1177/00223433241273057
Susan Hannah Allen, Clayton McLaughlin Webb
Sanctions episodes, like those imposed by the United States against Cuba and North Korea, can persist for decades. What are the consequences of lifting sanctions? Do the harmful consequences of economic sanctions outlast the sanctions? How do target states adjust after these coercive policies end? A growing literature identifies a range of adverse effects of economic sanctions for targeted states including shrinking income from trade and investment, declining respect for human rights, increased repression, and negative health outcomes. While scholars have studied the impact of sanctions imposition in great detail, we have considerably less systematic knowledge about the fate of governments, economies, and citizens in the years that follow the lifting of sanctions. What are the effects of lifting sanctions? As a first cut, we explore how government spending on public health shifts following the end of sanctions. Do governments reinvest in health after sanctions as a means of countering the negative well-being effects we know are associated with sanctions? Or do regimes maintain low levels of spending because their populations have learned to cope with scarcity? In this article, we analyze the impact of sanctions termination on government spending on health (1980–2018), finding that after sanctions, spending priorities readjust as trade and revenue increase. This readjustment effort diminishes as time passes.
{"title":"Recovering from economic coercion: Does the pain stop when sanctions end?","authors":"Susan Hannah Allen, Clayton McLaughlin Webb","doi":"10.1177/00223433241273057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241273057","url":null,"abstract":"Sanctions episodes, like those imposed by the United States against Cuba and North Korea, can persist for decades. What are the consequences of lifting sanctions? Do the harmful consequences of economic sanctions outlast the sanctions? How do target states adjust after these coercive policies end? A growing literature identifies a range of adverse effects of economic sanctions for targeted states including shrinking income from trade and investment, declining respect for human rights, increased repression, and negative health outcomes. While scholars have studied the impact of sanctions imposition in great detail, we have considerably less systematic knowledge about the fate of governments, economies, and citizens in the years that follow the lifting of sanctions. What are the effects of lifting sanctions? As a first cut, we explore how government spending on public health shifts following the end of sanctions. Do governments reinvest in health after sanctions as a means of countering the negative well-being effects we know are associated with sanctions? Or do regimes maintain low levels of spending because their populations have learned to cope with scarcity? In this article, we analyze the impact of sanctions termination on government spending on health (1980–2018), finding that after sanctions, spending priorities readjust as trade and revenue increase. This readjustment effort diminishes as time passes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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