European Economic Review最新文献_第10页

Spatial consumption risk sharing 空间消费风险分担

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105163

Prateek Arora , Dongwan Choo , Chenyue Hu

This paper investigates how bilateral economic linkages influence consumption synchronization across economies in response to idiosyncratic shocks. Using the US state-level data, we find the degree of bilateral consumption smoothing to decrease with geographic distance. To explain this fact, we develop an open economy DSGE model that incorporates trade, migration, and finance as channels of risk sharing subject to bilateral frictions that potentially covary with distance. Calibrated to the US data, this structural model enables us to examine interactions of different channels in general equilibrium and quantify their impacts on states’ consumption. Through counterfactual exercises, we find that turning off the three channels weakens consumption correlations across states in general, while trade is more effective than migration and financial channels in stabilizing consumption fluctuations.

本文研究了双边经济联系如何影响各经济体在应对特殊冲击时的消费同步。利用美国州级数据，我们发现双边消费平滑程度随着地理距离的增加而降低。为了解释这一事实，我们开发了一个开放经济DSGE模型，该模型将贸易、移民和金融作为风险分担的渠道，受双边摩擦的影响，这些摩擦可能随距离而变化。根据美国的数据，这个结构模型使我们能够检查一般均衡中不同渠道的相互作用，并量化它们对各州消费的影响。通过反事实练习，我们发现关闭这三个渠道一般会削弱各州之间的消费相关性，而在稳定消费波动方面，贸易比移民和金融渠道更有效。

引用次数: 0

The role of diagnostic ability in markets for expert services 诊断能力在专家服务市场中的作用

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105126

Fang Liu , Alexander Rasch , Marco A. Schwarz , Christian Waibel

In credence goods markets, experts have better information about the appropriate quality of treatment than their customers. They may then exploit their informational advantage by defrauding customers. Market institutions have been shown theoretically to be effective in mitigating fraudulent expert behavior. We analyze whether this positive result carries over to a situation in which experts are heterogeneous in their diagnostic abilities. We find that efficient market outcomes are always possible. Inefficient equilibria, however, can also exist. If, in equilibrium, experts provide diagnosis-independent treatments, an increase in the experts’ ability or in the probability of high-ability experts might not improve market efficiency.

在信用商品市场，专家比他们的顾客更了解适当的治疗质量。然后，他们可能利用自己的信息优势欺骗客户。从理论上讲，市场制度在减轻欺诈专家行为方面是有效的。我们分析这种积极的结果是否延续到专家在他们的诊断能力是异质的情况。我们发现，有效的市场结果总是可能的。然而，低效均衡也可能存在。如果在均衡状态下，专家提供独立于诊断的治疗，那么专家能力的提高或高能力专家出现的概率的增加可能不会提高市场效率。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the special issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead 《宏观经济制度变革：理论、证据和未来政策挑战》特刊导论

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105164

Pierpaolo Benigno , Claudio Morana , Patrizio Tirelli

This Introduction provides an overview of the EER Special Issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead. The contributions are organized around four key thematic areas: (1) the dynamics and properties of inflation, (2) sectoral vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions and energy price shocks, (3) structural divergence and the economic impacts of climate change, and (4) the design and effectiveness of economic policies in times of crisis.

本引言概述了《经济学人》关于宏观经济制度变化的特刊：理论、证据和未来的政策挑战。这些贡献围绕四个关键主题领域进行组织：(1)通货膨胀的动态和特性，(2)对供应链中断和能源价格冲击的部门脆弱性，(3)结构分歧和气候变化的经济影响，以及(4)危机时期经济政策的设计和有效性。

引用次数: 0

Legislative hostage-taking 立法劫持人质

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105183

Giovanni Andreottola , Barton E. Lee

Legislative hostage-taking — whereby the minority party refuses to pass a bipartisan policy unless another divisive or contentious policy also passes — has become a frequent occurrence, especially in American politics. We develop a dynamic model of legislative bargaining and electoral politics to provide insights into why hostage-taking occurs, which policies are held hostage, and which policies are demanded as ransom. Our key insight is that (credible) hostage-taking can only occur if the divisive policy benefits the voter. Furthermore, when hostage-taking occurs, it benefits the voter. However, these benefits are potentially tempered if parties can engage in policy design. In particular, hostage-taking can generate a perverse incentive for the majority party to engage in money burning to shield themself from the minority party’s hostage-taking.

立法人质劫持——即少数党拒绝通过一项两党合作的政策，除非另一项分裂或有争议的政策也获得通过——已经成为经常发生的事情，尤其是在美国政治中。我们开发了一个立法议价和选举政治的动态模型，以深入了解劫持人质的原因，哪些政策被劫持为人质，哪些政策被要求作为赎金。我们的关键见解是，（可信的）劫持人质事件只有在分裂政策有利于选民的情况下才会发生。此外，当人质劫持发生时，它对选民有利。然而，如果各方能够参与政策设计，这些好处可能会打折扣。特别是，劫持人质会产生一种反常的动机，促使多数党通过烧钱来保护自己免受少数党劫持人质的伤害。

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric overreaction 不对称反应过度

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105153

Emrehan Aktuğ , Abolfazl Rezghi

Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. We find that WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. This overreaction is asymmetric, with a stronger response to good news than to bad news, indicating excessive optimism among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts align more closely with the FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is under an IMF program. Overreaction is more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for longer-horizon forecasts, consistent with recent theoretical models. Finally, we develop a model to explain how the state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.

本研究利用涵盖150多个国家和10多个宏观经济变量的大型跨国数据集，检验了IMF《世界经济展望》预测与完全信息理性预期假设的一致性。我们发现，《世界经济展望》的预测表现出对新闻的过度反应。这种过度反应是不对称的，对好消息的反应强于对坏消息的反应，表明预测者过于乐观。此外，在经济低迷时期或一国接受国际货币基金组织援助时，预测与FIRE假设更为吻合。对于持久性较低的宏观经济变量和较长期的预测，反应过度更为明显，这与最近的理论模型一致。最后，我们开发了一个模型来解释注意力的状态依赖性质如何驱动这种不对称过度反应。

引用次数: 0

Endogenous formation of optimal teams 最优团队的内生形成

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105156

Renaud Foucart , Jonathan H.W. Tan , Zichen Zhao

We study the role of incentives in determining how individuals with high and low ability endogenously form teams with homogeneous or heterogeneous abilities. Standard incentives that reward the best-performing team (team incentives) or the best member of each team (individual incentives) consistently lead to the formation of homogeneous teams, even when socially inefficient. Conversely, equal sharing rules, which offer all members an identical share of total production, elicit optimal matching but are vulnerable to moral hazard. We show that hybrid incentives, which combine team and individual incentives, elicit optimal matching and are robust to moral hazard. We conduct two experimental studies showing that hybrid incentives produce significantly more optimal teams than standard incentives, though fewer than under equal sharing.

我们研究了激励在决定高、低能力个体如何内源性地形成同质或异质能力团队中的作用。奖励表现最好的团队（团队激励）或每个团队中最好的成员（个人激励）的标准激励始终导致同质团队的形成，即使在社会效率低下的情况下也是如此。相反，平等分享规则，即为所有成员提供相同份额的总生产，会导致最优匹配，但容易受到道德风险的影响。研究表明，团队激励和个人激励相结合的混合激励可以产生最优匹配，并且对道德风险具有鲁棒性。我们进行了两项实验研究，表明混合激励比标准激励产生了更多的最优团队，尽管比平等分享下的更少。

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric overreaction 不对称反应过度

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105153

Emrehan Aktuğ , Abolfazl Rezghi

Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. We find that WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. This overreaction is asymmetric, with a stronger response to good news than to bad news, indicating excessive optimism among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts align more closely with the FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is under an IMF program. Overreaction is more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for longer-horizon forecasts, consistent with recent theoretical models. Finally, we develop a model to explain how the state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.

本研究利用涵盖150多个国家和10多个宏观经济变量的大型跨国数据集，检验了IMF《世界经济展望》预测与完全信息理性预期假设的一致性。我们发现，《世界经济展望》的预测表现出对新闻的过度反应。这种过度反应是不对称的，对好消息的反应强于对坏消息的反应，表明预测者过于乐观。此外，在经济低迷时期或一国接受国际货币基金组织援助时，预测与FIRE假设更为吻合。对于持久性较低的宏观经济变量和较长期的预测，反应过度更为明显，这与最近的理论模型一致。最后，我们开发了一个模型来解释注意力的状态依赖性质如何驱动这种不对称过度反应。

引用次数: 0

Trading institutions in experimental asset markets: Theory and Evidence 实验性资产市场中的交易机构：理论与证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105148

Bulent Guler , Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Daniela Puzzello , Steven Tucker

We report the results of an experiment that examines the impact of centralized trading institutions on the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. We employ three trading institutions: Call Market, Double Auction, and Tâtonnement. The results show that bubbles are significantly smaller in uniform-price institutions than in Double Auction. We reproduce this and other critical patterns of the data by calibrating a parsimonious model with heterogeneous agents with different levels of sophistication, featuring fundamental and myopic traders. The model matches untargeted data moments and produces larger bubbles under Double Auction, consistent with the experimental data. This is because multiple trades occur within a period under this institution, amplifying the impact of myopic traders with a positive bias on transaction prices.

我们报告了一项实验的结果，该实验检验了集中交易机构对实验室资产市场泡沫和崩溃形成的影响。我们雇佣了三家交易机构：Call Market， Double Auction和ttnment。结果表明，平均价格制度下的泡沫明显小于双重拍卖制度下的泡沫。我们通过校准一个具有不同复杂程度的异质代理的简约模型，再现了这个和其他关键的数据模式，这些代理以基本面和短视交易者为特征。该模型与非目标数据矩匹配，在双拍卖下产生更大的气泡，与实验数据一致。这是因为在这种制度下，在一段时间内会发生多次交易，放大了短视交易者对交易价格的积极偏见的影响。

引用次数: 0

Servants of two masters: The economics of ‘slave-hiring’ 两个主人的仆人：“雇佣奴隶”的经济学

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105185

Ennio E. Piano , Sean-Patrick Alvarez

We explore the economics of ‘slave-hiring’ in the antebellum U.S. South. We argue that the threat of excessive violence against enslaved employees increased the cost of transferring temporary property rights from masters to hirers, implying systematic differences in the prevalence of slave-hiring across industries. Slave-hirers will tend to be underrepresented in industries that rely more heavily on force as a motivational tool, compared to industries that instead employ positive incentives. Our analysis combines qualitative historical insights with quantitative evidence from the ‘Free’ and ‘Slave Schedules’ of the 1860 U.S. Census for Fauquier County, VA. We find that among slaveholders, farmers were approximately 30 percentage points less likely to hire enslaved workers than those in the crafts. This effect persists when we control for slaveholder characteristics and the month in which the information was collected. Our findings shed light on a key institution of the antebellum Southern economy and how slavery was able to adapt and thrive in urban settings. They also provide indirect evidence of James Scott’s hypothesis that agriculture is especially suited to exploitative labor practices.

我们探讨了南北战争前美国南方“雇佣奴隶”的经济学。我们认为，对被奴役的雇员的过度暴力威胁增加了将临时产权从主人转移到雇主的成本，这意味着不同行业雇佣奴隶的普遍程度存在系统性差异。与采用积极激励措施的行业相比，在更依赖武力作为激励工具的行业中，奴隶主的代表性往往不足。我们的分析结合了定性的历史见解和定量的证据，这些证据来自1860年美国弗吉尼亚州福基耶县人口普查的“自由”和“奴隶时间表”。我们发现，在奴隶主中，农民雇佣奴隶工人的可能性比手工业工人低约30个百分点。当我们控制奴隶主特征和收集信息的月份时，这种影响仍然存在。我们的发现揭示了内战前南方经济的一个关键制度，以及奴隶制是如何在城市环境中适应和发展的。它们也为詹姆斯·斯科特的假设提供了间接证据，即农业特别适合剥削劳工的做法。

{"title":"Servants of two masters: The economics of ‘slave-hiring’","authors":"Ennio E. Piano , Sean-Patrick Alvarez","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the economics of ‘slave-hiring’ in the antebellum U.S. South. We argue that the threat of excessive violence against enslaved employees increased the cost of transferring temporary property rights from masters to hirers, implying systematic differences in the prevalence of slave-hiring across industries. Slave-hirers will tend to be underrepresented in industries that rely more heavily on force as a motivational tool, compared to industries that instead employ positive incentives. Our analysis combines qualitative historical insights with quantitative evidence from the ‘Free’ and ‘Slave Schedules’ of the 1860 U.S. Census for Fauquier County, VA. We find that among slaveholders, farmers were approximately 30 percentage points less likely to hire enslaved workers than those in the crafts. This effect persists when we control for slaveholder characteristics and the month in which the information was collected. Our findings shed light on a key institution of the antebellum Southern economy and how slavery was able to adapt and thrive in urban settings. They also provide indirect evidence of James Scott’s hypothesis that agriculture is especially suited to exploitative labor practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 105185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Local labor market dynamics and agglomeration effects 地方劳动力市场动态与集聚效应

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146

Pierre Deschamps , Guillaume Wilemme

Local labor market conditions are strongly persistent. Using a search-and-matching model with agglomeration effects and worker and firm migration, we study the transitional dynamics of a regional economy. The model is fitted to mimic local labor market dynamics using state-level U.S. time series. Agglomeration economies generate strong persistence in the employment level response to a labor demand shock, while agglomeration diseconomies dampen the shock. The amplification of the local unemployment rate response critically depends on wage rigidity. Short-term place-based policies can help the region since they dampen the impact of the shock on the employment level.

当地劳动力市场状况持续强劲。本文采用考虑集聚效应和企业迁移的搜索匹配模型，研究了区域经济的转型动态。该模型使用美国各州的时间序列来模拟当地的劳动力市场动态。集聚经济在就业水平上对劳动力需求冲击的反应具有较强的持续性，而集聚不经济则抑制了劳动力需求冲击。当地失业率反应的放大关键取决于工资刚性。短期的地方政策可以帮助该地区，因为它们可以减轻冲击对就业水平的影响。

引用次数: 0