European Economic Review最新文献_第10页

Endogenous formation of optimal teams 最优团队的内生形成

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105156

Renaud Foucart , Jonathan H.W. Tan , Zichen Zhao

We study the role of incentives in determining how individuals with high and low ability endogenously form teams with homogeneous or heterogeneous abilities. Standard incentives that reward the best-performing team (team incentives) or the best member of each team (individual incentives) consistently lead to the formation of homogeneous teams, even when socially inefficient. Conversely, equal sharing rules, which offer all members an identical share of total production, elicit optimal matching but are vulnerable to moral hazard. We show that hybrid incentives, which combine team and individual incentives, elicit optimal matching and are robust to moral hazard. We conduct two experimental studies showing that hybrid incentives produce significantly more optimal teams than standard incentives, though fewer than under equal sharing.

我们研究了激励在决定高、低能力个体如何内源性地形成同质或异质能力团队中的作用。奖励表现最好的团队（团队激励）或每个团队中最好的成员（个人激励）的标准激励始终导致同质团队的形成，即使在社会效率低下的情况下也是如此。相反，平等分享规则，即为所有成员提供相同份额的总生产，会导致最优匹配，但容易受到道德风险的影响。研究表明，团队激励和个人激励相结合的混合激励可以产生最优匹配，并且对道德风险具有鲁棒性。我们进行了两项实验研究，表明混合激励比标准激励产生了更多的最优团队，尽管比平等分享下的更少。

引用次数: 0

Efficient forward trade fosters innovation, investment, and resiliency 高效的远期贸易促进创新、投资和弹性

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105158

Peter Cramton , Axel Ockenfels

We propose a forward energy market design for Germany's electricity sector as an alternative to traditional capacity mechanisms. Drawing on two decades of U.S. experience, we point out the disadvantages of centralized capacity auctions and decentralized capacity obligations. Our forward energy market design enables transparent trading of granular energy products up to 48 months in advance through hourly batch auctions. In this design, load-serving entities have purchase obligations that increase from 0% to 100% of the realized load as the delivery date approaches. Unlike traditional capacity markets, which perpetuate spot market inefficiencies, our mechanism strengthens price signals, improves risk management, and enhances system resilience by providing efficient price discovery and clear investment signals. It also offers a robust, no-regret pathway to fostering innovation and demand flexibility, which are crucial for the energy transition.

我们提出了德国电力部门的前瞻性能源市场设计，作为传统容量机制的替代方案。根据美国20年的经验，我们指出了集中容量拍卖和分散容量义务的缺点。我们的远期能源市场设计使颗粒能源产品通过小时批量拍卖提前48个月进行透明交易。在此设计中，随着交付日期的临近，负载服务实体的购买义务从已实现负载的0%增加到100%。与传统的产能市场不同，我们的机制通过提供有效的价格发现和明确的投资信号，加强了价格信号，改善了风险管理，增强了系统的弹性。它还为促进创新和需求灵活性提供了一条强有力的、无悔的途径，这对能源转型至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the special issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead 《宏观经济制度变革：理论、证据和未来政策挑战》特刊导论

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105164

Pierpaolo Benigno , Claudio Morana , Patrizio Tirelli

This Introduction provides an overview of the EER Special Issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead. The contributions are organized around four key thematic areas: (1) the dynamics and properties of inflation, (2) sectoral vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions and energy price shocks, (3) structural divergence and the economic impacts of climate change, and (4) the design and effectiveness of economic policies in times of crisis.

本引言概述了《经济学人》关于宏观经济制度变化的特刊：理论、证据和未来的政策挑战。这些贡献围绕四个关键主题领域进行组织：(1)通货膨胀的动态和特性，(2)对供应链中断和能源价格冲击的部门脆弱性，(3)结构分歧和气候变化的经济影响，以及(4)危机时期经济政策的设计和有效性。

引用次数: 0

Trading institutions in experimental asset markets: Theory and Evidence 实验性资产市场中的交易机构：理论与证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105148

Bulent Guler , Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Daniela Puzzello , Steven Tucker

We report the results of an experiment that examines the impact of centralized trading institutions on the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. We employ three trading institutions: Call Market, Double Auction, and Tâtonnement. The results show that bubbles are significantly smaller in uniform-price institutions than in Double Auction. We reproduce this and other critical patterns of the data by calibrating a parsimonious model with heterogeneous agents with different levels of sophistication, featuring fundamental and myopic traders. The model matches untargeted data moments and produces larger bubbles under Double Auction, consistent with the experimental data. This is because multiple trades occur within a period under this institution, amplifying the impact of myopic traders with a positive bias on transaction prices.

我们报告了一项实验的结果，该实验检验了集中交易机构对实验室资产市场泡沫和崩溃形成的影响。我们雇佣了三家交易机构：Call Market， Double Auction和ttnment。结果表明，平均价格制度下的泡沫明显小于双重拍卖制度下的泡沫。我们通过校准一个具有不同复杂程度的异质代理的简约模型，再现了这个和其他关键的数据模式，这些代理以基本面和短视交易者为特征。该模型与非目标数据矩匹配，在双拍卖下产生更大的气泡，与实验数据一致。这是因为在这种制度下，在一段时间内会发生多次交易，放大了短视交易者对交易价格的积极偏见的影响。

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the special issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead 《宏观经济制度变革：理论、证据和未来政策挑战》特刊导论

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105164

Pierpaolo Benigno , Claudio Morana , Patrizio Tirelli

This Introduction provides an overview of the EER Special Issue on macroeconomic regime changes: Theory, evidence, and policy challenges ahead. The contributions are organized around four key thematic areas: (1) the dynamics and properties of inflation, (2) sectoral vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions and energy price shocks, (3) structural divergence and the economic impacts of climate change, and (4) the design and effectiveness of economic policies in times of crisis.

本引言概述了《经济学人》关于宏观经济制度变化的特刊：理论、证据和未来的政策挑战。这些贡献围绕四个关键主题领域进行组织：(1)通货膨胀的动态和特性，(2)对供应链中断和能源价格冲击的部门脆弱性，(3)结构分歧和气候变化的经济影响，以及(4)危机时期经济政策的设计和有效性。

引用次数: 0

Trading institutions in experimental asset markets: Theory and Evidence 实验性资产市场中的交易机构：理论与证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105148

Bulent Guler , Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Daniela Puzzello , Steven Tucker

We report the results of an experiment that examines the impact of centralized trading institutions on the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. We employ three trading institutions: Call Market, Double Auction, and Tâtonnement. The results show that bubbles are significantly smaller in uniform-price institutions than in Double Auction. We reproduce this and other critical patterns of the data by calibrating a parsimonious model with heterogeneous agents with different levels of sophistication, featuring fundamental and myopic traders. The model matches untargeted data moments and produces larger bubbles under Double Auction, consistent with the experimental data. This is because multiple trades occur within a period under this institution, amplifying the impact of myopic traders with a positive bias on transaction prices.

我们报告了一项实验的结果，该实验检验了集中交易机构对实验室资产市场泡沫和崩溃形成的影响。我们雇佣了三家交易机构：Call Market， Double Auction和ttnment。结果表明，平均价格制度下的泡沫明显小于双重拍卖制度下的泡沫。我们通过校准一个具有不同复杂程度的异质代理的简约模型，再现了这个和其他关键的数据模式，这些代理以基本面和短视交易者为特征。该模型与非目标数据矩匹配，在双拍卖下产生更大的气泡，与实验数据一致。这是因为在这种制度下，在一段时间内会发生多次交易，放大了短视交易者对交易价格的积极偏见的影响。

引用次数: 0

Efficient forward trade fosters innovation, investment, and resiliency 高效的远期贸易促进创新、投资和弹性

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105158

Peter Cramton , Axel Ockenfels

We propose a forward energy market design for Germany's electricity sector as an alternative to traditional capacity mechanisms. Drawing on two decades of U.S. experience, we point out the disadvantages of centralized capacity auctions and decentralized capacity obligations. Our forward energy market design enables transparent trading of granular energy products up to 48 months in advance through hourly batch auctions. In this design, load-serving entities have purchase obligations that increase from 0% to 100% of the realized load as the delivery date approaches. Unlike traditional capacity markets, which perpetuate spot market inefficiencies, our mechanism strengthens price signals, improves risk management, and enhances system resilience by providing efficient price discovery and clear investment signals. It also offers a robust, no-regret pathway to fostering innovation and demand flexibility, which are crucial for the energy transition.

我们提出了德国电力部门的前瞻性能源市场设计，作为传统容量机制的替代方案。根据美国20年的经验，我们指出了集中容量拍卖和分散容量义务的缺点。我们的远期能源市场设计使颗粒能源产品通过小时批量拍卖提前48个月进行透明交易。在此设计中，随着交付日期的临近，负载服务实体的购买义务从已实现负载的0%增加到100%。与传统的产能市场不同，我们的机制通过提供有效的价格发现和明确的投资信号，加强了价格信号，改善了风险管理，增强了系统的弹性。它还为促进创新和需求灵活性提供了一条强有力的、无悔的途径，这对能源转型至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics 调查预期、学习和通货膨胀动态

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118

Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Raf Wouters

We propose a framework that exploits survey data on inflation expectations to refine the identification of processes that drive inflation in DSGE models. By decomposing fundamental markup shocks into persistent and transitory components, our approach effectively integrates timely survey information about the nature of inflation shocks, enhancing forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on a learning setup can more effectively utilize signals from the combined datasets of realized inflation and survey forecasts compared to their Rational Expectations counterparts. The learning model’s ability to generate time variation in the perceived inflation target, inflation persistence, and sensitivity to various shocks enables it to detect changes in the fundamental processes driving inflation. These features help overcome limitations of survey data and enhance forecast accuracy, particularly during periods when survey forecasts exhibit systematic prediction errors. Specifically, the model with learning successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.

我们提出了一个框架，利用通胀预期的调查数据来完善DSGE模型中驱动通胀的过程的识别。通过将基本面加价冲击分解为持续和短暂的组成部分，我们的方法有效地整合了有关通胀冲击性质的及时调查信息，增强了对通胀和其他宏观经济变量的预测。与理性预期模型相比，基于学习设置的预期模型可以更有效地利用来自已实现通货膨胀和调查预测的组合数据集的信号。学习模型能够在感知通胀目标、通胀持续性和对各种冲击的敏感性中产生时间变化，使其能够检测驱动通胀的基本过程的变化。这些特征有助于克服调查数据的局限性，提高预测的准确性，特别是在调查预测出现系统性预测误差的时期。具体来说，具有学习能力的模型成功地识别了近期通胀飙升的更持久的本质。

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引用次数: 0

Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics 调查预期、学习和通货膨胀动态

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105118

Yuliya Rychalovska , Sergey Slobodyan , Raf Wouters

We propose a framework that exploits survey data on inflation expectations to refine the identification of processes that drive inflation in DSGE models. By decomposing fundamental markup shocks into persistent and transitory components, our approach effectively integrates timely survey information about the nature of inflation shocks, enhancing forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on a learning setup can more effectively utilize signals from the combined datasets of realized inflation and survey forecasts compared to their Rational Expectations counterparts. The learning model’s ability to generate time variation in the perceived inflation target, inflation persistence, and sensitivity to various shocks enables it to detect changes in the fundamental processes driving inflation. These features help overcome limitations of survey data and enhance forecast accuracy, particularly during periods when survey forecasts exhibit systematic prediction errors. Specifically, the model with learning successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.

我们提出了一个框架，利用通胀预期的调查数据来完善DSGE模型中驱动通胀的过程的识别。通过将基本面加价冲击分解为持续和短暂的组成部分，我们的方法有效地整合了有关通胀冲击性质的及时调查信息，增强了对通胀和其他宏观经济变量的预测。与理性预期模型相比，基于学习设置的预期模型可以更有效地利用来自已实现通货膨胀和调查预测的组合数据集的信号。学习模型能够在感知通胀目标、通胀持续性和对各种冲击的敏感性中产生时间变化，使其能够检测驱动通胀的基本过程的变化。这些特征有助于克服调查数据的局限性，提高预测的准确性，特别是在调查预测出现系统性预测误差的时期。具体来说，具有学习能力的模型成功地识别了近期通胀飙升的更持久的本质。

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引用次数: 0

Local labor market dynamics and agglomeration effects 地方劳动力市场动态与集聚效应

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105146

Pierre Deschamps , Guillaume Wilemme

Local labor market conditions are strongly persistent. Using a search-and-matching model with agglomeration effects and worker and firm migration, we study the transitional dynamics of a regional economy. The model is fitted to mimic local labor market dynamics using state-level U.S. time series. Agglomeration economies generate strong persistence in the employment level response to a labor demand shock, while agglomeration diseconomies dampen the shock. The amplification of the local unemployment rate response critically depends on wage rigidity. Short-term place-based policies can help the region since they dampen the impact of the shock on the employment level.

当地劳动力市场状况持续强劲。本文采用考虑集聚效应和企业迁移的搜索匹配模型，研究了区域经济的转型动态。该模型使用美国各州的时间序列来模拟当地的劳动力市场动态。集聚经济在就业水平上对劳动力需求冲击的反应具有较强的持续性，而集聚不经济则抑制了劳动力需求冲击。当地失业率反应的放大关键取决于工资刚性。短期的地方政策可以帮助该地区，因为它们可以减轻冲击对就业水平的影响。

引用次数: 0