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Explaining deviations from Okun’s law 解释偏离奥肯定律的原因
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105205
Claudia Foroni , Francesco Furlanetto
Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural shocks identified using a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun’s law are a natural and expected outcome once one takes a multi-shock perspective, as long as shocks to labour-saving technology, labour supply and structural factors in the labour market are taken into account. Our simple recipe for policy makers is that, if a positive deviation from Okun’s law arises, it is likely to be generated by either positive labour supply or labour-saving technology shocks or by negative structural factors shocks.
尽管奥肯定律随着时间的推移保持稳定,但就像任何统计关系一样,它有时也会出现很大的偏差。在本文中,我们通过检查失业率如何响应经济状况,提供了奥肯回归中的残差与使用SVAR模型识别的结构性冲击之间的映射。我们表明,只要考虑到劳动力节约技术、劳动力供给和劳动力市场结构性因素的冲击,从多重冲击的角度来看,偏离奥肯定律是一种自然和预期的结果。我们给政策制定者的简单建议是,如果出现对奥肯定律的正向偏离,它很可能是由积极的劳动力供给或节省劳动力的技术冲击或消极的结构性因素冲击产生的。
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引用次数: 0
The great reshuffle: Remote work and residential sorting 大洗牌:远程工作和居家分拣
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105195
Wenli Li , Yichen Su
This paper studies the significance of migration in evaluating the welfare impacts of remote work. By analyzing individual location history data, we first document an increase in net migration toward suburbs and smaller cities in the US since 2020. We demonstrate that the migration wave has been disproportionately fueled by high-income individuals, who were more likely to move due to remote work. Consequently, regions with substantial in-migration observed the greatest rise in housing expenses. This also led to changes in local demand for services and associated employment. Employing a stylized welfare accounting framework, we show that migration mitigated the increase in housing cost burdens for both high- and low-income groups, with the advantages being greater for low-income individuals. Conversely, dispersed job growth, as a result of migration away from major urban centers, curtailed the increase in job accessibility, especially for high-income groups. Factoring in the spatial impacts of migration on housing costs and job accessibility, the welfare inequality surge related to remote work is considerably tempered.
本文研究了迁移对评估远程工作的福利影响的意义。通过分析个人位置历史数据,我们首先记录了自2020年以来美国郊区和小城市净移民的增加。我们证明,高收入人群不成比例地推动了移民浪潮,他们更有可能因远程工作而迁移。因此,有大量移民的地区的住房费用上涨幅度最大。这也导致当地对服务和相关就业的需求发生变化。采用程式化的福利会计框架,我们表明,移民减轻了高收入群体和低收入群体住房成本负担的增加,对低收入群体的好处更大。相反,由于移民远离主要城市中心,分散的就业增长限制了就业机会的增加,特别是对高收入群体而言。考虑到移民对住房成本和工作可及性的空间影响,与远程工作相关的福利不平等激增得到了相当大的缓和。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding witness reporting of intimate partner violence 了解亲密伴侣暴力的证人报告
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105208
Rebeca Echavarri , Ariadna García-Prado , Fernanda Gutierrez-Navratil , Sara Martinez-de-Morentin
We conducted an incentivized experiment to evaluate the impact of anonymity (witness and aggressor) and institution type (whether or not it has legal enforcement) on witness propensity to report Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). We used a hypothetical vignette that placed subjects in the role of witnesses to a case of IPV, who must decide whether or not to report IPV in four different treatments involving variations in anonymity conditions and type of institution. We find that preserving aggressor anonymity and being able to report to a legal enforcement institution (police as opposed to social services) promote witness reporting. Additionally, we examined the underlying assumption that fear drives these outcomes by designing a laboratory experiment in which fear is elicited by exposing subjects to a horror short. The results show that fear reduces reporting, and aggressor anonymity offsets the effect of fear.
我们进行了一项激励实验,以评估匿名(证人和施暴者)和机构类型(是否有法律执行)对证人报告亲密伴侣暴力倾向的影响。我们使用了一个假设的小插曲,将受试者置于IPV案件的证人角色,他们必须决定是否在涉及匿名条件和机构类型变化的四种不同治疗中报告IPV。我们发现,保持攻击者的匿名性,并能够向执法机构(警察而不是社会服务机构)报告,促进了证人报告。此外,我们通过设计一个实验室实验来检验恐惧驱动这些结果的潜在假设,在这个实验中,恐惧被暴露在恐怖短片中。结果表明,恐惧减少了举报,而攻击者的匿名性抵消了恐惧的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral reallocations with an aging population 人口老龄化导致的行业再分配
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105182
Simona E. Cociuba , James C. MacGee
Demographic projections show the majority of OECD economies will see declines in their working-age populations in the coming decades. This is potentially problematic, since young workers account for a large share of net labor reallocation between growing and shrinking industries. To examine if sectoral reallocation costs are exacerbated by an aging population, we develop a three-sector perpetual youth search model with sector-specific human capital. Our model features two interconnected frictions: sectoral preference, which implies that only some workers are mobile across sectors, and a wage bargaining distortion, whereby mobile workers’ outside option of searching in the growing sector dampens the fall in shrinking sector wages, leading to rest unemployment. In our parametrized model, as population growth declines from 3 to 1 percent, output losses from a one-time reallocation shock of 3 percentage points increase seven-fold to nearly 10 percent of annual GDP, and there are extended periods of high unemployment and low vacancies.
人口预测显示,大多数经合组织经济体的劳动年龄人口在未来几十年将出现下降。这是一个潜在的问题,因为年轻工人在增长和萎缩行业之间的净劳动力再分配中占很大比例。为了检验人口老龄化是否加剧了部门再配置成本,我们建立了一个具有部门特定人力资本的三部门永久青年搜索模型。我们的模型有两个相互关联的摩擦:部门偏好,这意味着只有一些工人在部门之间流动;工资谈判扭曲,即流动工人在增长部门寻找的外部选择抑制了萎缩部门工资的下降,导致休息失业。在我们的参数化模型中,随着人口增长率从3%下降到- 1%,一次性再分配冲击造成的产出损失将增加7倍,达到年度GDP的近10%,并出现长时间的高失业率和低空缺率。
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引用次数: 0
The delayed acceptance of female research in economics 经济学中女性研究被推迟接受
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105204
Stephan B. Bruns , Anthony Doucouliagos , Hristos Doucouliagos , Johannes König , T.D. Stanley , Katarina Zigova
We explore gender differences in the time taken to accept empirical articles of economics research. On average, female-authored articles take 9 % longer to accept. This gender gap cannot be fully attributed to differences in author affiliation, research productivity, research quality and novelty. The gender composition of editorial boards does not affect acceptance time for female authors. Nevertheless, this gender gap narrows as female representation in an area of research deepens. We find evidence of sub-field differences in this gender gap, consistent with differences in social norms.
我们探讨了接受经济学研究的实证文章所花费的时间的性别差异。女性作者的文章平均要多花9%的时间才能被接受。这种性别差异不能完全归因于作者隶属关系、研究生产力、研究质量和新颖性的差异。编委会的性别构成并不影响女性作者的录用时间。然而,随着女性在某一研究领域的代表性加深,这种性别差距会缩小。我们发现了这种性别差距的子领域差异的证据,与社会规范的差异一致。
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引用次数: 0
How natural disasters spread conflict 自然灾害是如何传播冲突的
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105194
Ashani Amarasinghe , Paul A. Raschky , Yves Zenou , Junjie Zhou
This paper studies how natural disasters spread conflicts within a network. We first construct a new panel data set that combines geo-referenced information about conflict events and natural disasters, for 5,944 districts in 53 African countries, over the period 1989–2020. Considering natural disasters as exogenous shocks that affect the combatants’ activity in a locality, we find that natural disasters decrease conflict incidence in the affected locality, increase conflict incidence in neighbouring localities, and lead to an overall net increase in conflict incidence. The spatial dispersion of conflict varies by the level of local rent-seeking opportunities and the level of international, post-disaster aid. We then provide a simple theoretical framework that may explain this conflict dispersion pattern. Findings provide important implications for implementing local and aggregate level conflict mitigation policies.
本文研究了自然灾害如何在网络中传播冲突。我们首先构建了一个新的面板数据集,该数据集结合了1989-2020年期间53个非洲国家5944个地区的冲突事件和自然灾害的地理参考信息。将自然灾害作为影响当地战斗人员活动的外生冲击,我们发现自然灾害降低了受影响地区的冲突发生率,增加了邻近地区的冲突发生率,并导致冲突发生率总体净增加。冲突的空间分散程度因当地寻租机会的水平和国际灾后援助的水平而异。然后,我们提供了一个简单的理论框架,可以解释这种冲突分散模式。调查结果对实施地方和总体层面的缓解冲突政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling inflation: Oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations 揭露通胀:石油冲击、供应链压力和预期
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105192
Knut Are Aastveit , Hilde C. Bjørnland , Jamie L. Cross , Helene O. Kalstad
After decades of low and stable inflation, advanced economies experienced a sharp and persistent surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. While many studies have examined the sources of this inflation, less attention has been paid to how domestic inflation expectations amplify global shocks. This paper makes a novel contribution by quantifying that amplification mechanism across six advanced, inflation-targeting economies: the United States, Canada, New Zealand, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and Norway. Using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model, we jointly identify global demand and supply shocks, including various oil market shocks and global supply chain disruptions, as well as domestic shocks to inflation and inflation expectations. We show that these global shocks were key drivers of the post-pandemic inflation surge in all countries studied. Importantly, our counterfactual analysis reveals that inflation expectations have significantly amplified the transmission of global shocks, particularly in Canada, New Zealand, and the US. These findings demonstrate that the interaction between global forces and country-specific expectations is central to understanding inflation dynamics, and underscore the importance of managing inflation expectations as a tool to mitigate persistent inflation.
在经历了数十年的低而稳定的通货膨胀之后,发达经济体在2019冠状病毒病大流行后经历了通货膨胀的急剧持续飙升。虽然许多研究都考察了这种通胀的来源,但很少有人关注国内通胀预期如何放大全球冲击。本文通过量化六个发达通胀目标制经济体(美国、加拿大、新西兰、欧元区、英国和挪威)的放大机制,做出了一项新颖的贡献。使用结构贝叶斯向量自回归模型,我们共同识别全球需求和供应冲击,包括各种石油市场冲击和全球供应链中断,以及国内对通胀和通胀预期的冲击。我们表明,这些全球冲击是所有研究国家大流行后通胀飙升的主要驱动因素。重要的是,我们的反事实分析显示,通胀预期显著放大了全球冲击的传导,尤其是在加拿大、新西兰和美国。这些研究结果表明,全球力量与具体国家预期之间的相互作用对于理解通胀动态至关重要,并强调了管理通胀预期作为缓解持续通胀的工具的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The working capital channel 营运资金渠道
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105193
Melinda Suveg
Firms relying on working capital raise prices following monetary tightening, and this paper demonstrates that the working capital channel plays a key role in partial and general equilibrium inflation dynamics. The working capital channel arises from firms’ need to pre-fund inputs, determined by their exposure (working capital shares) and price elasticity (working capital sensitivity) to interest rate changes. Using detailed firm-product-level price data, the analysis shows that the average firm holds working capital equal to 16% of sales. For a firm with this average share, a one percentage point policy rate hike leads to a 0.48–2.56% price increase over a 3–33 month horizon.
依赖营运资金的企业在货币紧缩后提高价格,本文证明营运资金渠道在部分均衡和一般均衡通胀动态中起关键作用。营运资金渠道源于公司对预先资金投入的需求,这取决于它们对利率变化的敞口(营运资本份额)和价格弹性(营运资本敏感性)。使用详细的公司产品级价格数据,分析表明,平均每家公司持有的营运资金相当于销售额的16%。对于一家拥有这样平均份额的公司来说,政策利率每提高一个百分点,就会在3-33个月内导致0.48-2.56%的价格上涨。
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引用次数: 0
Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations 宏观审慎政策与房地产市场预期
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105191
Pei Kuang , Kaushik Mitra , Li Tang , Shihan Xie
This paper studies how macroprudential policy changes affect consumers’ housing market expectations and housing affordability perceptions in the United Kingdom. We conduct a large-scale online survey experiment presenting hypothetical changes of three borrower-based macroprudential tools: residential loan-to-value (LTV), buy-to-let LTV, and loan-to-income ratios. We find that policy tightening lowers house price expectations, reduces homebuying intentions, and worsens affordability assessments, while loosening has the opposite effects. The residential LTV ratio is the most effective tool. To interpret these findings, we embed our survey estimates into a dynamic model linking expectations, credit, and housing demand. The model shows that immediate belief shifts significantly amplify house price and consumption responses, highlighting the importance of expectations in the transmission of macroprudential policy.
本文研究了宏观审慎政策变化如何影响英国消费者的住房市场预期和住房负担能力认知。我们进行了一项大规模的在线调查实验,展示了三种基于借款人的宏观审慎工具的假设变化:住房贷款价值比(LTV)、买房出租贷款价值比(LTV)和贷款收入比。我们发现,政策收紧降低了房价预期,降低了购房意愿,并恶化了负担能力评估,而放松则有相反的效果。住宅贷款价值比率是最有效的工具。为了解释这些发现,我们将我们的调查估计嵌入到一个连接预期、信贷和住房需求的动态模型中。该模型表明,即时信念转变显著放大了房价和消费反应,突出了预期在宏观审慎政策传导中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating euro area output gap dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database 估计欧元区产出缺口动态:来自更新的全区域模型数据库的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105179
Mahmut S. İpek , Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
We estimate the output gap for the euro area and 20 member countries using a variety of statistical models, based on 55 years of data. We also update the Area-Wide Model Database (AWMD) through 2025Q2, ensuring it remains publicly accessible. Our key findings are: (1) while statistical models broadly agree on the timing of the peaks and troughs, uncertainty persists about the business cycle’s exact state due to differing estimates of the potential output, (2) statistical and institutional estimates generally align but diverge on the size of the output gap, (3) the output gaps of the five largest euro area countries are strongly correlated with each other and the overall euro area. Our work provides an important tool for understanding the business cycle dynamics of Europe’s economy and offers a reliable, official output gap measure for policymakers and economists.
我们基于55年的数据,使用各种统计模型来估计欧元区和20个成员国的产出缺口。我们还通过2025Q2更新了全区域模型数据库(AWMD),确保它仍然可以公开访问。我们的主要发现是:(1)虽然统计模型在高峰和低谷的时间上大致一致,但由于对潜在产出的不同估计,商业周期的确切状态仍然存在不确定性;(2)统计和制度估计总体上一致,但在产出缺口的大小上存在分歧;(3)欧元区五大国家的产出缺口彼此之间以及整个欧元区之间存在强烈的相关性。我们的工作为理解欧洲经济的商业周期动态提供了重要工具,并为政策制定者和经济学家提供了可靠的官方产出缺口衡量标准。
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引用次数: 0
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European Economic Review
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