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Targeted monetary policy, dual rates, and bank risk-taking 目标货币政策、双重利率和银行风险承担
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104889
Francesca Barbiero , Lorenzo Burlon , Maria Dimou , Jan Toczynski
We assess whether dual interest rates – central bank funding at rates below the interest rates on reserves – influence the size and composition of bank credit. We measure exposure to the policy using daily reactions of bank funding costs to the announcement of the recalibration of the ECB’s TLTROs in April 2020. We then use the Euro area credit register to follow the evolution of bank lending conditions and risk-taking. We find that the measure had a strong positive effect on bank credit and, in contrast to a standard rate cut, was not accompanied by an increase in risk-taking.
我们评估双重利率(中央银行以低于准备金利率的利率提供资金)是否会影响银行信贷的规模和构成。我们利用银行融资成本对欧洲央行宣布于 2020 年 4 月重新调整 TLTROs 的每日反应来衡量该政策的风险敞口。然后,我们使用欧元区信贷登记册来跟踪银行贷款条件和风险承担的演变。我们发现,该措施对银行信贷产生了强烈的积极影响,与标准降息不同的是,风险承担并没有随之增加。
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引用次数: 0
Don’t put all your legs in one basket: Theory and evidence on coopetition in road cycling 不要把所有的腿都放在一个篮子里:公路自行车合作竞争的理论与证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104892
Julian Matthes, David Piazolo
We study competition between two groups of individuals with team affiliations, where each group solves a coopetition problem to outperform the other group. Our analysis suggests the presence of a strategic benefit of diversification that goes beyond merely reducing outcome uncertainty. We outline applications in industrial and workplace organization and provide a detailed model of road cycling races, which naturally feature this strategic setup. We find that asymmetric groups tend to cooperate better. Also, having team members in two competing groups is beneficial for a team, as it increases free-riding opportunities in both groups. By analyzing data from over 40 seasons of professional road cycling races, we find empirical evidence in favor of these results. In particular, having a teammate in a group behind positively impacts win probability.
我们研究了两组有团队隶属关系的个体之间的竞争,其中每一组都要解决一个合作竞争问题,以超越另一组。我们的分析表明,多样化带来的战略利益不仅仅是减少结果的不确定性。我们概述了在工业和工作场所组织中的应用,并提供了一个公路自行车赛的详细模型,该模型自然以这种战略设置为特征。我们发现,非对称团体往往合作得更好。此外,让队员分属两个相互竞争的小组对一个团队有利,因为这会增加两个小组的搭便车机会。通过分析超过 40 个赛季的职业公路自行车赛的数据,我们发现了支持这些结果的经验证据。特别是,队友在小组后面对获胜概率有积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Identity, Leadership, and Cooperation: An experimental analysis” [European Economic Review 165 (2024) 104741] 对 "身份、领导力与合作:实验分析》[《欧洲经济评论》165 (2024) 104741] 更正
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104877
Moumita Roy , Daniel Houser
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引用次数: 0
Contingent payments in procurement interactions: Experimental evidence 采购互动中的或有支付:实验证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104886
Jason Shachat , Matthew J. Walker , Lijia Wei
A primary objective of creating competition among suppliers is the procurement of higher quality goods and services at lower prices. When procuring non-standard goods, it is often difficult to write a complete specification of desired quality in the contract. Thus, payments to suppliers cannot be perfectly conditioned on the quality provided. We develop a simple model to distil several real-world features and illustrate how contract structure within price priority competition jointly affects bid aggression and incentives for the provision of surplus-enhancing quality. We implement the contingent payments as probabilistic. The selected supplier’s payment is, according to a fixed probability, either their bid or a quality contingent amount that depends on the bid and an exogenous norm for allocating social surplus. We use a lab experiment to show that there is a ‘Goldilocks’ region for high quality in which the probability of quality contingent payment is large enough to incentivize provision, but not so large as to induce overly aggressive bidding. This implementation only relies upon preferences for maximizing one’s own profit and the rationality of backward induction. An experimental finding not predicted in our setting is that suppliers earn positive economic profits inside the Goldilocks region, which can be explained by suppliers’ risk aversion. The results have implications for the effective design of contingent payments in contracts.
在供应商之间形成竞争的一个主要目的是以较低的价格采购到较高质量的货物和服务。在采购非标准货物时,往往很难在合同中对所需质量作出完整的规定。因此,支付给供应商的款项不可能完全取决于所提供的质量。我们建立了一个简单的模型来提炼现实世界中的几个特征,并说明价格优先竞争中的合同结构如何共同影响投标攻击性和提供盈余增强质量的激励机制。我们以概率的方式实现或有付款。根据固定的概率,被选中的供应商的付款要么是其出价,要么是取决于出价和分配社会剩余的外生规范的质量或有金额。我们利用实验室实验证明,在高质量的 "金发区",质量或有付款的概率大到足以激励供应,但又不会大到诱导过于激进的竞标。这种实施只依赖于自身利益最大化的偏好和逆向归纳的合理性。一个在我们的设定中没有预测到的实验结果是,供应商在 "金发姑娘 "区域内获得了正经济利润,这可以用供应商的风险规避来解释。这些结果对合同中或有付款的有效设计具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Herbert Glejser - Obituary 赫伯特-格莱瑟 - 讣告
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104867
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引用次数: 0
Effects of extending paid parental leave on children’s socio-emotional skills and well-being in adolescence 延长带薪育儿假对儿童社会情感技能和青春期幸福感的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104880
Mikkel Aagaard Houmark , Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen , Ida Lykke Kristiansen , Miriam Gensowski
We study how children’s socio-emotional skills and well-being in adolescence are affected by longer parental care during infancy. Exploiting a Danish reform that extended paid parental leave in 2002 and effectively delayed children’s entry into formal out-of-home care, we show that longer leave increases adolescent conscientiousness, emotional stability, and well-being, and reduces school absenteeism. The effects are strongest for children of mothers who would have taken short leave in the absence of the reform. For this group, longer leave also increases school grades and reduces the risk of getting a psychiatric diagnosis. This highlights how time spent with a parent is particularly productive during very early childhood.
我们研究了婴儿期父母较长时间的照顾如何影响孩子青春期的社会情感技能和幸福感。丹麦在 2002 年进行了一项改革,延长了带薪育儿假,并有效地推迟了儿童进入正式家庭外照料机构的时间,我们利用这项改革表明,延长育儿假可以提高青少年的自觉性、情绪稳定性和幸福感,并减少旷课现象。对那些在没有改革的情况下也会请短假的母亲的子女来说,这种影响最大。对这一群体而言,较长的假期还能提高学习成绩,降低被诊断为精神病的风险。这凸显了与父母在一起的时间在幼儿期特别有成效。
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引用次数: 0
A field study of donor behaviour in the Iranian kidney market 对伊朗肾脏市场捐赠者行为的实地研究
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104887
Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi , Daniel Sgroi
Iran has the world’s only government-regulated kidney market. We report the results of the first field study of donor behaviour in this unusual market. Participants have lower risk tolerance and higher patience levels than the Iranian average but display no difference in rationality from population averages and there is evidence of altruism among participants. We provide an examination of decision-making in extreme situations by individuals in this market, typically at the very bottom of the income distribution, and shed light on the sort of people likely to participate if other nations were to operate such markets.
伊朗拥有世界上唯一一个由政府监管的肾脏市场。我们报告了在这个不寻常的市场中对捐赠者行为的首次实地研究结果。与伊朗的平均水平相比,参与者的风险承受能力较低,耐心水平较高,但在理性方面与人口平均水平没有差异,而且有证据表明参与者中存在利他主义。我们研究了该市场中的个人(通常处于收入分配的最底层)在极端情况下的决策,并揭示了如果其他国家运营此类市场,有可能参与的人群类型。
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引用次数: 0
On political ambiguity and anti-median platforms 关于政治模糊性和反中庸平台
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104884
Juha Tolvanen
This paper constructs a new, information-based explanation for political ambiguity and the success of anti-median platforms. It argues that voters’ and candidates’ correlated preferences about the appropriate policy combined with ambiguous platforms can help candidates with non-median preferences increase their support and even win against a median candidate. I show how ambiguity can arise in a standard citizen-candidate setting where voters have different preferences, in its extension with primaries, and even in a Condorcet jury model where disagreement arises only from differences in voters’ information. The paper also offers a formal framework that allows for dog whistle politics. The model illustrates how ambiguity can have important negative welfare implications. Specifically, I show that despite having ex-ante identical preferences with voters, politicians may choose ambiguous platforms even if voters would be keen on banning them.
本文为政治模糊性和反中庸政纲的成功构建了一种新的、基于信息的解释。本文认为,选民和候选人对适当政策的相关偏好与模棱两可的政纲相结合,可以帮助非中位数偏好的候选人增加支持率,甚至战胜中位数候选人。我展示了模糊性是如何在选民有不同偏好的标准公民-候选人环境中、在初选的扩展环境中,甚至在仅因选民信息差异而产生分歧的康多塞特陪审团模型中产生的。本文还提供了一个允许狗哨政治的正式框架。该模型说明了模糊性如何对福利产生重要的负面影响。具体来说,我表明,尽管政治家与选民的事前偏好相同,但他们可能会选择模棱两可的政纲,即使选民会热衷于禁止这些政纲。
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引用次数: 0
Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment 机器人、职业和工人年龄:就业的生产单位分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104881
Liuchun Deng , Steffen Müller , Verena Plümpe , Jens Stegmaier
We analyze the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use of German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favorable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis for robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find decreasing employment for any occupational or age group but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation-biased but age neutral whereas the reinstatement effect is age-biased and benefits young workers most.
我们利用与社保记录和工作任务数据相关联的德国制造工厂机器人使用情况的新型微观数据,分析了采用机器人对就业构成的影响。根据我们基于任务的模型预测,对常规任务密集度最低的职业和年轻工人的就业影响更大,因为后者更善于适应变化。对机器人应用的事件研究分析证实了这两个预测。我们没有发现任何职业或年龄组的就业率下降,但低技能工人的流失率急剧上升。我们的结论是,机器人的替代效应与职业有关,但与年龄无关,而恢复效应则与年龄有关,年轻工人受益最大。
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引用次数: 0
Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation 主动还是被动?重新审视财政政策在高通胀时期的作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104874
Stephanie Ettmeier , Alexander Kriwoluzky
We investigate the interplay of the monetary–fiscal policy mix during times of crisis by drawing insights from the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. We use a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to estimate a DSGE model with three distinct monetary/fiscal policy regimes. We show that, in such a model, SMC outperforms standard sampling algorithms because it is better suited to deal with multimodal posteriors, an outcome that is highly likely in a DSGE model with monetary–fiscal policy interactions. From the estimation with SMC, a differentiated perspective results: pre-Volcker macroeconomic dynamics were similarly driven by passive monetary/passive fiscal policy and fiscal dominance. We apply these insights to study the post-pandemic inflation period.
我们从 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代的大通胀中汲取灵感,研究了危机时期货币与财政政策组合的相互作用。我们使用序列蒙特卡罗(SMC)算法来估计一个具有三种不同货币/财政政策制度的 DSGE 模型。我们的研究表明,在这样的模型中,SMC 优于标准抽样算法,因为它更适合处理多模态后验,而这种结果在货币与财政政策相互作用的 DSGE 模型中是极有可能出现的。通过使用 SMC 进行估计,我们得出了一个不同的视角:沃尔克法案前的宏观经济动态同样受到被动货币/被动财政政策和财政主导地位的驱动。我们将这些见解用于研究大流行后的通货膨胀时期。
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European Economic Review
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