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Baumol’s climate disease 鲍莫尔气候病
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105175
Fangzhi Wang , Hua Liao , Richard S.J. Tol
We investigate optimal carbon abatement in a dynamic general equilibrium climate-economy model with endogenous structural change. By differentiating the production of investment from consumption, we show that social cost of carbon can be conceived as a reduction in physical capital. In addition, we distinguish two final sectors in terms of productivity growth and climate vulnerability. We theoretically show that heterogeneous climate vulnerability results in a climate-induced version of Baumol’s cost disease. Further, if climate-vulnerable sectors have high (low) productivity growth, climate impact can ameliorate (aggravate) the Baumol’s cost disease, call for less (more) stringent climate policy. We conclude that carbon abatement should not only factor in unpriced climate capital, but also be tailored to Baumol’s cost and climate diseases.
本文研究了具有内生结构变化的动态一般平衡气候经济模型中的最优碳减排。通过区分投资生产和消费,我们表明碳的社会成本可以被认为是物质资本的减少。此外,我们在生产率增长和气候脆弱性方面区分了最后两个部门。我们从理论上表明,异质性气候脆弱性导致气候诱发的鲍莫尔成本病。此外,如果易受气候变化影响的部门具有高(低)生产率增长,气候影响可以改善(加剧)鲍莫尔成本病,呼吁采取不那么(更)严格的气候政策。我们的结论是,碳减排不仅要考虑未定价的气候资本,而且要根据鲍莫尔成本和气候疾病进行调整。
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引用次数: 0
Servants of two masters: The economics of ‘slave-hiring’ 两个主人的仆人:“雇佣奴隶”的经济学
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105185
Ennio E. Piano , Sean-Patrick Alvarez
We explore the economics of ‘slave-hiring’ in the antebellum U.S. South. We argue that the threat of excessive violence against enslaved employees increased the cost of transferring temporary property rights from masters to hirers, implying systematic differences in the prevalence of slave-hiring across industries. Slave-hirers will tend to be underrepresented in industries that rely more heavily on force as a motivational tool, compared to industries that instead employ positive incentives. Our analysis combines qualitative historical insights with quantitative evidence from the ‘Free’ and ‘Slave Schedules’ of the 1860 U.S. Census for Fauquier County, VA. We find that among slaveholders, farmers were approximately 30 percentage points less likely to hire enslaved workers than those in the crafts. This effect persists when we control for slaveholder characteristics and the month in which the information was collected. Our findings shed light on a key institution of the antebellum Southern economy and how slavery was able to adapt and thrive in urban settings. They also provide indirect evidence of James Scott’s hypothesis that agriculture is especially suited to exploitative labor practices.
我们探讨了南北战争前美国南方“雇佣奴隶”的经济学。我们认为,对被奴役的雇员的过度暴力威胁增加了将临时产权从主人转移到雇主的成本,这意味着不同行业雇佣奴隶的普遍程度存在系统性差异。与采用积极激励措施的行业相比,在更依赖武力作为激励工具的行业中,奴隶主的代表性往往不足。我们的分析结合了定性的历史见解和定量的证据,这些证据来自1860年美国弗吉尼亚州福基耶县人口普查的“自由”和“奴隶时间表”。我们发现,在奴隶主中,农民雇佣奴隶工人的可能性比手工业工人低约30个百分点。当我们控制奴隶主特征和收集信息的月份时,这种影响仍然存在。我们的发现揭示了内战前南方经济的一个关键制度,以及奴隶制是如何在城市环境中适应和发展的。它们也为詹姆斯·斯科特的假设提供了间接证据,即农业特别适合剥削劳工的做法。
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引用次数: 0
Building resilience in college: evidence from a randomized trial 在大学里培养韧性:来自随机试验的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105131
Núria Rodríguez-Planas , Alan Secor , Rafael De Balanzó Joue
We conducted a randomized evaluation of a primary prevention intervention whose main goal was to increase the resilience of students from a large broad-access Hispanic Serving Institution and commuter urban college. In a 90-minute workshop, students (1) were introduced to the resilient-thinking approach, which offers conceptual tools to cope with unexpected negative shocks; (2) worked individually and in groups to identify challenges in their community; and (3) brainstormed strategies to address them. We find that the intervention increased by 5 percent of a standard deviation the short-run resilience of the average student. The intervention was most effective for students with weaker individual protective factors at baseline (the most vulnerable students, those with lower resilience, and with higher mental health problems), and for those with stronger community protective factors, suggesting that individual and community factors mediate differently within this intervention. The intervention effects on students’ resilience persisted over time. These effects were mostly driven by an improvement in students’ collaboration (i.e., maintenance and formation of support networks and personal relationships), and vision (i.e., sense of purpose and belief in an ability to define, clarify, and achieve goals). As anticipated due to the low-dose nature of the intervention, we did not find effects on academic performance the semester of the intervention or the following one, nor on depression and anxiety the following semester.
我们进行了一项初级预防干预的随机评估,其主要目标是提高来自大型西班牙裔服务机构和通勤城市大学的学生的适应能力。在90分钟的研讨会上,学生们(1)被介绍了弹性思维方法,该方法提供了应对意外负面冲击的概念工具;(2)以个人或小组的方式工作,找出社区中的挑战;(3)集思广益解决这些问题的策略。我们发现,干预增加了5%的标准差,平均学生的短期弹性。干预对基线时个人保护因素较弱的学生(最脆弱的学生、适应力较低的学生和心理健康问题较高的学生)和社区保护因素较强的学生最有效,这表明个人和社区因素在干预中起不同的中介作用。干预对学生心理弹性的影响持续存在。这些影响主要是由学生协作能力的提高(即支持网络和个人关系的维护和形成)和愿景(即目的感和对定义、澄清和实现目标的能力的信念)所驱动的。正如预期的那样,由于干预的低剂量性质,我们没有发现干预对学习成绩或下一个学期的影响,也没有发现对抑郁和焦虑的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Servants of two masters: The economics of ‘slave-hiring’ 两个主人的仆人:“雇佣奴隶”的经济学
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105185
Ennio E. Piano , Sean-Patrick Alvarez
We explore the economics of ‘slave-hiring’ in the antebellum U.S. South. We argue that the threat of excessive violence against enslaved employees increased the cost of transferring temporary property rights from masters to hirers, implying systematic differences in the prevalence of slave-hiring across industries. Slave-hirers will tend to be underrepresented in industries that rely more heavily on force as a motivational tool, compared to industries that instead employ positive incentives. Our analysis combines qualitative historical insights with quantitative evidence from the ‘Free’ and ‘Slave Schedules’ of the 1860 U.S. Census for Fauquier County, VA. We find that among slaveholders, farmers were approximately 30 percentage points less likely to hire enslaved workers than those in the crafts. This effect persists when we control for slaveholder characteristics and the month in which the information was collected. Our findings shed light on a key institution of the antebellum Southern economy and how slavery was able to adapt and thrive in urban settings. They also provide indirect evidence of James Scott’s hypothesis that agriculture is especially suited to exploitative labor practices.
我们探讨了南北战争前美国南方“雇佣奴隶”的经济学。我们认为,对被奴役的雇员的过度暴力威胁增加了将临时产权从主人转移到雇主的成本,这意味着不同行业雇佣奴隶的普遍程度存在系统性差异。与采用积极激励措施的行业相比,在更依赖武力作为激励工具的行业中,奴隶主的代表性往往不足。我们的分析结合了定性的历史见解和定量的证据,这些证据来自1860年美国弗吉尼亚州福基耶县人口普查的“自由”和“奴隶时间表”。我们发现,在奴隶主中,农民雇佣奴隶工人的可能性比手工业工人低约30个百分点。当我们控制奴隶主特征和收集信息的月份时,这种影响仍然存在。我们的发现揭示了内战前南方经济的一个关键制度,以及奴隶制是如何在城市环境中适应和发展的。它们也为詹姆斯·斯科特的假设提供了间接证据,即农业特别适合剥削劳工的做法。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric overreaction 不对称反应过度
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105153
Emrehan Aktuğ , Abolfazl Rezghi
Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. We find that WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. This overreaction is asymmetric, with a stronger response to good news than to bad news, indicating excessive optimism among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts align more closely with the FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is under an IMF program. Overreaction is more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for longer-horizon forecasts, consistent with recent theoretical models. Finally, we develop a model to explain how the state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.
本研究利用涵盖150多个国家和10多个宏观经济变量的大型跨国数据集,检验了IMF《世界经济展望》预测与完全信息理性预期假设的一致性。我们发现,《世界经济展望》的预测表现出对新闻的过度反应。这种过度反应是不对称的,对好消息的反应强于对坏消息的反应,表明预测者过于乐观。此外,在经济低迷时期或一国接受国际货币基金组织援助时,预测与FIRE假设更为吻合。对于持久性较低的宏观经济变量和较长期的预测,反应过度更为明显,这与最近的理论模型一致。最后,我们开发了一个模型来解释注意力的状态依赖性质如何驱动这种不对称过度反应。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric overreaction 不对称反应过度
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105153
Emrehan Aktuğ , Abolfazl Rezghi
Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. We find that WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. This overreaction is asymmetric, with a stronger response to good news than to bad news, indicating excessive optimism among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts align more closely with the FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is under an IMF program. Overreaction is more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for longer-horizon forecasts, consistent with recent theoretical models. Finally, we develop a model to explain how the state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.
本研究利用涵盖150多个国家和10多个宏观经济变量的大型跨国数据集,检验了IMF《世界经济展望》预测与完全信息理性预期假设的一致性。我们发现,《世界经济展望》的预测表现出对新闻的过度反应。这种过度反应是不对称的,对好消息的反应强于对坏消息的反应,表明预测者过于乐观。此外,在经济低迷时期或一国接受国际货币基金组织援助时,预测与FIRE假设更为吻合。对于持久性较低的宏观经济变量和较长期的预测,反应过度更为明显,这与最近的理论模型一致。最后,我们开发了一个模型来解释注意力的状态依赖性质如何驱动这种不对称过度反应。
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引用次数: 0
Women in economics: The role of gendered references at entry in the profession 经济学中的女性:职业入门时性别参考的作用
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105155
Audinga Baltrunaite , Alessandra Casarico , Lucia Rizzica
We study the presence and the extent of gender differences in reference letters for graduate students in economics and finance, and how they relate to early labor market outcomes. To these ends, we build a novel rich dataset and combine Natural Language Processing techniques with standard regression analysis. We find that men are described more often as standout and women as grindstone, i.e., hardworking and diligent; these differences are mainly driven by male letter writers, especially more senior ones. We then show that the former (latter) characteristics relate positively (negatively) with various subsequent career outcomes and that women obtain lower positive (marginally larger negative) returns from being described as standout (grindstone). We argue that, taken together, this evidence is consistent with the presence of implicit gender stereotypes as driving the observed differences in the way candidates are described.
我们研究了经济学和金融学研究生推荐信中性别差异的存在和程度,以及它们与早期劳动力市场结果的关系。为此,我们建立了一个新的丰富数据集,并将自然语言处理技术与标准回归分析相结合。我们发现,男性更常被描述为“出类拔萃”,而女性更常被描述为“磨刀石”,即勤奋、勤奋;这些差异主要是由男性写信人造成的,尤其是级别更高的男性。然后我们表明,前(后)特征与随后的各种职业结果呈正(负)相关,并且女性从被描述为突出(磨刀石)中获得较低的正(略大的负)回报。我们认为,综合来看,这一证据与隐性性别刻板印象的存在是一致的,因为它驱动了候选人描述方式的观察差异。
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引用次数: 0
Leadership and cooperation in a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma 顺序囚徒困境中的领导与合作
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105160
Eberhard Feess , Steffen Lippert , Jamie Martini-Tibbs , James Tremewan
In a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma, conditional cooperation creates an incentive to move second. However, choosing to move first can signal strong social preferences, potentially increasing cooperation when players care not only about actions but also about what those actions reveal about their partners’ social preferences. To examine this, we use the psychological game framework to disentangle the effects of observed actions from those of beliefs about partner preferences. The model yields a separating equilibrium in which players with strong social preferences move first. It predicts that endogenous sorting outperforms exogenous sorting when self-selection is hidden. Full transparency about endogenous sorting may backfire if players forced to move first infer selfish motives and defect. Yet, our experimental data show that transparency is optimal: it boosts incentives to move first and raises cooperation among second movers, without reducing cooperation among those compelled to move first. We also find a notable gender difference, as female subjects are more attuned to the signaling value of moving first.
在连续囚徒困境中,有条件的合作创造了第二步行动的动机。然而,选择先行动可以显示出强烈的社交偏好,当玩家不仅关心行动,还关心这些行动所揭示的同伴的社交偏好时,就有可能增加合作。为了检验这一点,我们使用心理游戏框架将观察到的行为的影响与对伴侣偏好的信念的影响分开。该模型产生了一种分离均衡,在这种均衡中,具有强烈社会偏好的玩家会先行动。它预测当自我选择隐藏时,内生排序优于外生排序。完全透明的内生排序可能会适得其反,如果玩家被迫先行动,推断出自私的动机和背叛。然而,我们的实验数据表明,透明度是最优的:它会激发先动者的动机,提高后动者之间的合作,而不会减少被迫先动者之间的合作。我们还发现了一个显著的性别差异,因为女性受试者更习惯于先行动的信号价值。
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引用次数: 0
Leadership and cooperation in a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma 顺序囚徒困境中的领导与合作
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105160
Eberhard Feess , Steffen Lippert , Jamie Martini-Tibbs , James Tremewan
In a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma, conditional cooperation creates an incentive to move second. However, choosing to move first can signal strong social preferences, potentially increasing cooperation when players care not only about actions but also about what those actions reveal about their partners’ social preferences. To examine this, we use the psychological game framework to disentangle the effects of observed actions from those of beliefs about partner preferences. The model yields a separating equilibrium in which players with strong social preferences move first. It predicts that endogenous sorting outperforms exogenous sorting when self-selection is hidden. Full transparency about endogenous sorting may backfire if players forced to move first infer selfish motives and defect. Yet, our experimental data show that transparency is optimal: it boosts incentives to move first and raises cooperation among second movers, without reducing cooperation among those compelled to move first. We also find a notable gender difference, as female subjects are more attuned to the signaling value of moving first.
在连续囚徒困境中,有条件的合作创造了第二步行动的动机。然而,选择先行动可以显示出强烈的社交偏好,当玩家不仅关心行动,还关心这些行动所揭示的同伴的社交偏好时,就有可能增加合作。为了检验这一点,我们使用心理游戏框架将观察到的行为的影响与对伴侣偏好的信念的影响分开。该模型产生了一种分离均衡,在这种均衡中,具有强烈社会偏好的玩家会先行动。它预测当自我选择隐藏时,内生排序优于外生排序。完全透明的内生排序可能会适得其反,如果玩家被迫先行动,推断出自私的动机和背叛。然而,我们的实验数据表明,透明度是最优的:它会激发先动者的动机,提高后动者之间的合作,而不会减少被迫先动者之间的合作。我们还发现了一个显著的性别差异,因为女性受试者更习惯于先行动的信号价值。
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引用次数: 0
Women in economics: The role of gendered references at entry in the profession 经济学中的女性:职业入门时性别参考的作用
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105155
Audinga Baltrunaite , Alessandra Casarico , Lucia Rizzica
We study the presence and the extent of gender differences in reference letters for graduate students in economics and finance, and how they relate to early labor market outcomes. To these ends, we build a novel rich dataset and combine Natural Language Processing techniques with standard regression analysis. We find that men are described more often as standout and women as grindstone, i.e., hardworking and diligent; these differences are mainly driven by male letter writers, especially more senior ones. We then show that the former (latter) characteristics relate positively (negatively) with various subsequent career outcomes and that women obtain lower positive (marginally larger negative) returns from being described as standout (grindstone). We argue that, taken together, this evidence is consistent with the presence of implicit gender stereotypes as driving the observed differences in the way candidates are described.
我们研究了经济学和金融学研究生推荐信中性别差异的存在和程度,以及它们与早期劳动力市场结果的关系。为此,我们建立了一个新的丰富数据集,并将自然语言处理技术与标准回归分析相结合。我们发现,男性更常被描述为“出类拔萃”,而女性更常被描述为“磨刀石”,即勤奋、勤奋;这些差异主要是由男性写信人造成的,尤其是级别更高的男性。然后我们表明,前(后)特征与随后的各种职业结果呈正(负)相关,并且女性从被描述为突出(磨刀石)中获得较低的正(略大的负)回报。我们认为,综合来看,这一证据与隐性性别刻板印象的存在是一致的,因为它驱动了候选人描述方式的观察差异。
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引用次数: 0
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European Economic Review
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