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Money from Afar: Analyzing the link between remittances and terrorism 来自远方的钱：分析汇款与恐怖主义之间的联系

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105184

Rafat Mahmood

Despite widespread rhetoric portraying remittances and international money transfers as convenient channels for financing terrorism, leading to a range of financial regulations targeting such flows, empirical evidence linking remittances to terrorism remains limited and inconclusive. This study investigates the causal relationship between remittances and terrorism using a global panel dataset spanning 1970 to 2019. To isolate causality, the analysis exploits exogenous variation in remittances driven by natural disasters in related countries; the relatedness being defined by the share of migrants. The results reveal a robust positive relationship between remittances and terrorism, consistent across multiple specifications, alternative outcome variables, and alternative instruments. These findings offer new insight into the complex role of remittances in terrorism dynamics. Additional robustness checks, including instrument recentering and falsification tests, further reinforce the validity of the results and the credibility of the identification strategy.

尽管广泛的言论将汇款和国际汇款描述为资助恐怖主义的便利渠道，导致针对此类流动的一系列金融监管，但将汇款与恐怖主义联系起来的经验证据仍然有限且不确定。本研究使用1970年至2019年的全球面板数据集调查了汇款与恐怖主义之间的因果关系。为了隔离因果关系，该分析利用了由相关国家自然灾害驱动的汇款的外生变化；这种联系是由移民所占的比例来定义的。结果显示，汇款与恐怖主义之间存在强有力的正相关关系，且在多个指标、不同结果变量和不同工具之间保持一致。这些发现为了解汇款在恐怖主义动态中的复杂作用提供了新的视角。额外的稳健性检查，包括仪器重新输入和伪造检验，进一步加强了结果的有效性和鉴定战略的可信度。

引用次数: 0

Do zombies rise when interest rates fall: A relationship banking model 利率下降时僵尸会上升吗：关系银行模式

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105218

Fabian Herweg , Maximilian Kähny

A relationship bank or market investors finance an entrepreneur’s risky project. Unlike investors, the bank can identify and liquidate bad projects at an interim stage. If the entrepreneur can provide only limited capital, the optimal loan contract induces an inefficient continuation decision, i.e., the bank engages in zombie lending. In the short run – for a given contract – the bank’s incentive to roll over bad loans is enhanced if the base interest rate drops. In the long run, however, the bank adjusts the contract to a drop in the interest rate, and the effect on zombification is reversed.

关系银行或市场投资者为企业家的高风险项目提供资金。与投资者不同，银行可以在过渡阶段识别和清算不良项目。当企业家只能提供有限的资金时，最优贷款契约导致了低效的延续决策，即银行进行僵尸贷款。在短期内——对于一份给定的合同——如果基准利率下降，银行展期不良贷款的动机就会增强。然而，从长期来看，银行调整合同以适应利率的下降，对僵尸化的影响被逆转。

引用次数: 0

Immigration and US shelter prices: The role of geographical and immigrant heterogeneity 移民和美国住房价格：地理和移民异质性的作用

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105214

James Cabral , Walter Steingress

The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices. We show that the impact of immigrants is heterogeneous across locations. The increase in shelter prices is greater in counties where immigrants have higher levels of education and in counties that issue fewer building permits. We also find that the house prices respond more to immigration than rent prices do. The larger issuance of building permits for multi-unit homes than for single-unit homes can reconcile the different price reactions.

移民的到来增加了对住房的需求，给住房价格带来了上行压力。使用基于美国各县居民祖先构成的工具变量，我们估计了移民对当地住房价格的因果影响。我们表明，移民的影响在不同地区是异质的。在移民受教育程度较高的县和发放建筑许可较少的县，住房价格的涨幅更大。我们还发现，房价对移民的反应比对租金的反应更大。多单元住宅比单单元住宅发放更多的建筑许可，可以调和不同的价格反应。

引用次数: 0

Do caseworker meetings prevent unemployment? Evidence from a field experiment 社会工作者会议能防止失业吗？现场实验的证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105215

Pia Homrighausen , Michael Oberfichtner

Caseworker meetings have been shown to accelerate exit from unemployment. We investigate whether they are also effective before job loss. In a natural field experiment in Germany, where workers must register with the employment agency up to three months before becoming unemployed, we offer caseworker meetings to jobseekers while they are still employed. Our results indicate that offering preventive meetings does not improve jobseekers’ labour market outcomes, despite bringing forward the first meeting. The intervention increases the total number of meetings, thereby consuming scarce caseworker resources, but does not influence jobseekers’ search behaviour—likely explaining its lack of effectiveness.

社会工作者会议已被证明可以加速摆脱失业。我们调查了它们在失业前是否也有效。在德国进行的一项自然实地实验中，工人必须在失业前三个月在职业介绍所登记，我们在求职者仍在职期间为他们提供个案工作者会议。我们的研究结果表明，提供预防性会议并不能改善求职者的劳动力市场结果，尽管提前了第一次会议。这种干预增加了会面的总次数，从而消耗了稀缺的社会工作者资源，但并没有影响求职者的求职行为——这很可能解释了它缺乏有效性的原因。

引用次数: 0

Institutional housing investors and the Great Recession 机构住房投资者和大衰退

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105211

Dick Oosthuizen

Before the Great Recession, residential institutional investors predominantly bought and rented out condos, but then they increased their market share of rental houses from 15 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2018. Along with this change, rental survey data show that the annual house operating-cost premium of institutional investors relative to homeowners fell from 44 percent in 2001 to 28 percent in 2015. To measure how these reduced costs affected the housing bust of 2007–2011, I build a heterogeneous agent model of the housing market featuring corporate investors and two types of dwellings: condos and houses. A transition experiment intended to replicate the Great Recession yields three results. First, house prices would have fallen by 1.6 percentage points more without the corporate-cost reduction. Second, the corporate-cost reduction can explain the fall in the homeownership rate. Third, the cost reduction produced a welfare gain of 0.4 percent for homeowners and 0.6 percent for individual investors.

在大衰退之前，住宅机构投资者主要购买和出租公寓，但随后他们将租赁房屋的市场份额从2001年的15%增加到2018年的27%。伴随着这一变化，租赁调查数据显示，机构投资者相对于房主的年度房屋运营成本溢价从2001年的44%下降到2015年的28%。为了衡量这些降低的成本是如何影响2007-2011年的房地产泡沫破裂的，我建立了一个房地产市场的异质代理模型，其中包括企业投资者和两种类型的住宅：公寓和住宅。一项旨在复制大衰退（Great Recession）的转型实验产生了三个结果。首先，如果没有企业成本的降低，房价还会再下跌1.6个百分点。其次，企业成本的降低可以解释住房拥有率的下降。第三，成本的降低为房主带来了0.4%的福利收益，为个人投资者带来了0.6%的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

Climate change, catastrophes, insurance and the macroeconomy 气候变化、灾难、保险和宏观经济

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105210

Margherita Giuzio , Sujit Kapadia , Hradayesh Kumar , Luisa Mazzotta , Miles Parker , Linda Rousová , Dimitris Zafeiris

This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can mitigate the impact of catastrophes and articulates the potential effect of falling insurance coverage as global warming intensifies. The model also provides a basis for our empirical analysis which explores the link between insurance coverage and the macroeconomic impact of catastrophes for a sample of several thousand disaster events across 47 developed and middle income countries between 1996 and 2019. The results confirm that higher insurance coverage is associated with less severe macroeconomic consequences of disasters. With climate-related catastrophes becoming ever more frequent and severe, our findings highlight the importance of developing policies to reduce the climate insurance protection gap.

本文探讨了保险在减轻气候相关灾害的不利宏观经济影响中的作用。我们首先开发了一个风格化的理论增长模型，其中包含了自然灾害、气候变化和保险的作用。这说明了保险如何减轻灾难的影响，并阐明了随着全球变暖加剧，保险覆盖面下降的潜在影响。该模型还为我们的实证分析提供了基础，该实证分析以1996年至2019年期间47个发达国家和中等收入国家的数千起灾害事件为样本，探讨了保险覆盖率与灾害的宏观经济影响之间的联系。研究结果证实，较高的保险覆盖率与灾害造成的较轻的宏观经济后果有关。随着气候相关灾难变得越来越频繁和严重，我们的研究结果强调了制定政策以缩小气候保险保护缺口的重要性。

引用次数: 0

International lending channel, bank heterogeneity and capital inflows (Mis)allocation 国际借贷渠道、银行异质性与资本流入（Mis）配置

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105212

Lucas Argentieri Mariani , Silvia Marchesi

This paper examines how heterogeneity among banks in international lending affects the allocation of capital inflows across firms, leveraging South Africa’s inclusion in the Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI). Using bank-level data, we show that banks holding sovereign bonds prior to the inclusion expand their credit supply to non-financial firms following the shock, with this effect primarily driven by less capitalized banks. Using firm-level data from South Africa, we further demonstrate that the increased credit is allocated among less financially constrained and older firms, which are more likely to have established banking relationships before the inclusion. Importantly, as credit is allocated to unconstrained firms, we find little evidence of economically significant improvements in real outcomes. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the interplay between banks’ heterogeneity, capital inflow shocks, and capital misallocation, shedding light on why the international lending channel may, in some instances, have a muted impact on both firms and the broader economy.

本文通过将南非纳入花旗集团世界政府债券指数（WGBI），考察了银行间国际贷款的异质性如何影响企业间资本流入的配置。利用银行层面的数据，我们发现在纳入之前持有主权债券的银行在冲击之后扩大了对非金融公司的信贷供应，这种效应主要是由资本较少的银行推动的。使用来自南非的企业层面数据，我们进一步证明，增加的信贷分配给财务约束较少的老公司，这些公司更有可能在纳入之前建立银行关系。重要的是，由于信贷分配给了不受约束的企业，我们发现几乎没有证据表明实际结果在经济上有显著改善。我们的论文通过强调银行异质性、资本流入冲击和资本错配之间的相互作用，为文献做出了贡献，揭示了为什么在某些情况下，国际贷款渠道可能对公司和更广泛的经济产生温和的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Family stress and the intergenerational correlation in self-control 家庭压力与自我控制的代际关系

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105209

Deborah A. Cobb-Clark , Haniene Tayeb

We first examine the correlation in self-control between parents and their young-adult children, drawing on two decades of population-representative panel data. We then exploit variation in the family environment during childhood to investigate how family stress related to: i) parenting responsibilities; ii) parents’ relationship quality; iii) household finances; and iv) poor mental health shape the self-control of young adults. A finite mixture model is used to account for unobserved heterogeneity in young adults’ capacity for self-control. Our results indicate that some young people may be particularly sensitive to growing up in a stressful environment, opening the door for family stress to affect the formation of self-control.

我们首先利用20年的人口代表性面板数据，研究了父母和他们年幼的子女在自我控制方面的相关性。然后，我们利用儿童时期家庭环境的变化来调查家庭压力与以下因素的关系：1)养育责任；Ii)父母关系质量；Iii)家庭财务；第四，不良的心理健康状况影响了年轻人的自我控制能力。有限混合模型用于解释年轻人自我控制能力的未观察到的异质性。我们的研究结果表明，一些年轻人可能对在压力环境中长大特别敏感，这为家庭压力影响自我控制的形成打开了大门。

引用次数: 0

Consumer durables, monetary policy, and the green transition 耐用消费品、货币政策和绿色转型

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105207

Alexander M. Dietrich , Lukas Leitenbacher , Gernot J. Müller

As part of the green transition, the European cap-and-trade scheme for CO₂ emissions will be extended to include consumer durables. We propose a New Keynesian model that features both “brown” and “green” durable goods, and show that if monetary policy follows a business-as-usual approach, the green transition will be inflationary, with headline inflation rising by up to 20 basis points. Monetary policy faces a tradeoff: strictly targeting headline inflation slows the green transition, as purchases of green durables are particularly sensitive to interest rates. We explore this tradeoff by comparing adjustment dynamics under a headline-inflation target and a core-inflation target.

作为绿色转型的一部分，欧洲二氧化碳排放限额与交易计划将扩展到耐用消费品。我们提出了一个以“棕色”和“绿色”耐用品为特征的新凯恩斯模型，并表明，如果货币政策遵循一切照旧的方法，绿色转型将导致通货膨胀，总体通货膨胀率将上升至多20个基点。货币政策面临着一个权衡：严格瞄准总体通胀会减缓绿色转型，因为购买绿色耐用品对利率特别敏感。我们通过比较标题通胀目标和核心通胀目标下的调整动态来探讨这种权衡。

引用次数: 0

Green transition in the euro area: Domestic and global factors 欧元区的绿色转型：国内和全球因素

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105206

Pablo Garcia , Pascal Jacquinot , Črt Lenarčič , Kostas Mavromatis , Niki Papadopoulou , Edgar Silgado-Gómez

We explore the macroeconomic effects of climate policies promoting the green energy transition in the euro area using an extended version of the Euro Area and Global Economy (EAGLE) model. The model differentiates between brown and green energy sectors and incorporates carbon taxes and brown capital income taxes. We analyze scenarios with unilateral and globally coordinated carbon taxes, with and without revenue redistribution to green firms and financially constrained households. Carbon taxes act as negative supply shocks, raising inflation and lowering output, while subsidies to green energy firms reduce green energy prices, supporting the transition and easing recessions. Redistribution to constrained households boosts consumption but does not accelerate the green transition. Taxes on brown capital income lower both inflation and output by acting as demand shocks. Recycling revenue from this tax to subsidize green capital investment strengthens the shift to green energy and moderates economic contractions. Global coordination of carbon taxes delivers only modest additional macroeconomic effects compared to unilateral action, as substitution in energy use outweighs international spillovers. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of these findings under alternative assumptions on price rigidity, substitution elasticities, and monetary policy.

我们使用扩展版的欧元区和全球经济（EAGLE）模型探讨了促进欧元区绿色能源转型的气候政策的宏观经济影响。该模型区分了棕色能源和绿色能源部门，并纳入了碳税和棕色资本所得税。我们分析了单边和全球协调的碳税，以及是否向绿色企业和财政拮据的家庭进行收入再分配的情景。碳税起到了负面供应冲击的作用，提高了通胀，降低了产出，而对绿色能源公司的补贴降低了绿色能源价格，支持了转型，缓解了衰退。再分配给受限制的家庭会促进消费，但不会加速绿色转型。对棕色资本收入征税作为需求冲击，降低了通胀和产出。回收这项税收的收入来补贴绿色资本投资，加强了向绿色能源的转变，缓和了经济收缩。与单边行动相比，碳税的全球协调只能带来适度的额外宏观经济效应，因为能源使用的替代超过了国际溢出效应。敏感性分析证实了这些发现在价格刚性、替代弹性和货币政策等不同假设下的稳健性。

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