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Building resilience in college: evidence from a randomized trial 在大学里培养韧性:来自随机试验的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105131
Núria Rodríguez-Planas , Alan Secor , Rafael De Balanzó Joue
We conducted a randomized evaluation of a primary prevention intervention whose main goal was to increase the resilience of students from a large broad-access Hispanic Serving Institution and commuter urban college. In a 90-minute workshop, students (1) were introduced to the resilient-thinking approach, which offers conceptual tools to cope with unexpected negative shocks; (2) worked individually and in groups to identify challenges in their community; and (3) brainstormed strategies to address them. We find that the intervention increased by 5 percent of a standard deviation the short-run resilience of the average student. The intervention was most effective for students with weaker individual protective factors at baseline (the most vulnerable students, those with lower resilience, and with higher mental health problems), and for those with stronger community protective factors, suggesting that individual and community factors mediate differently within this intervention. The intervention effects on students’ resilience persisted over time. These effects were mostly driven by an improvement in students’ collaboration (i.e., maintenance and formation of support networks and personal relationships), and vision (i.e., sense of purpose and belief in an ability to define, clarify, and achieve goals). As anticipated due to the low-dose nature of the intervention, we did not find effects on academic performance the semester of the intervention or the following one, nor on depression and anxiety the following semester.
我们进行了一项初级预防干预的随机评估,其主要目标是提高来自大型西班牙裔服务机构和通勤城市大学的学生的适应能力。在90分钟的研讨会上,学生们(1)被介绍了弹性思维方法,该方法提供了应对意外负面冲击的概念工具;(2)以个人或小组的方式工作,找出社区中的挑战;(3)集思广益解决这些问题的策略。我们发现,干预增加了5%的标准差,平均学生的短期弹性。干预对基线时个人保护因素较弱的学生(最脆弱的学生、适应力较低的学生和心理健康问题较高的学生)和社区保护因素较强的学生最有效,这表明个人和社区因素在干预中起不同的中介作用。干预对学生心理弹性的影响持续存在。这些影响主要是由学生协作能力的提高(即支持网络和个人关系的维护和形成)和愿景(即目的感和对定义、澄清和实现目标的能力的信念)所驱动的。正如预期的那样,由于干预的低剂量性质,我们没有发现干预对学习成绩或下一个学期的影响,也没有发现对抑郁和焦虑的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral reallocations with an aging population 人口老龄化导致的行业再分配
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105182
Simona E. Cociuba , James C. MacGee
Demographic projections show the majority of OECD economies will see declines in their working-age populations in the coming decades. This is potentially problematic, since young workers account for a large share of net labor reallocation between growing and shrinking industries. To examine if sectoral reallocation costs are exacerbated by an aging population, we develop a three-sector perpetual youth search model with sector-specific human capital. Our model features two interconnected frictions: sectoral preference, which implies that only some workers are mobile across sectors, and a wage bargaining distortion, whereby mobile workers’ outside option of searching in the growing sector dampens the fall in shrinking sector wages, leading to rest unemployment. In our parametrized model, as population growth declines from 3 to 1 percent, output losses from a one-time reallocation shock of 3 percentage points increase seven-fold to nearly 10 percent of annual GDP, and there are extended periods of high unemployment and low vacancies.
人口预测显示,大多数经合组织经济体的劳动年龄人口在未来几十年将出现下降。这是一个潜在的问题,因为年轻工人在增长和萎缩行业之间的净劳动力再分配中占很大比例。为了检验人口老龄化是否加剧了部门再配置成本,我们建立了一个具有部门特定人力资本的三部门永久青年搜索模型。我们的模型有两个相互关联的摩擦:部门偏好,这意味着只有一些工人在部门之间流动;工资谈判扭曲,即流动工人在增长部门寻找的外部选择抑制了萎缩部门工资的下降,导致休息失业。在我们的参数化模型中,随着人口增长率从3%下降到- 1%,一次性再分配冲击造成的产出损失将增加7倍,达到年度GDP的近10%,并出现长时间的高失业率和低空缺率。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding witness reporting of intimate partner violence 了解亲密伴侣暴力的证人报告
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105208
Rebeca Echavarri , Ariadna García-Prado , Fernanda Gutierrez-Navratil , Sara Martinez-de-Morentin
We conducted an incentivized experiment to evaluate the impact of anonymity (witness and aggressor) and institution type (whether or not it has legal enforcement) on witness propensity to report Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). We used a hypothetical vignette that placed subjects in the role of witnesses to a case of IPV, who must decide whether or not to report IPV in four different treatments involving variations in anonymity conditions and type of institution. We find that preserving aggressor anonymity and being able to report to a legal enforcement institution (police as opposed to social services) promote witness reporting. Additionally, we examined the underlying assumption that fear drives these outcomes by designing a laboratory experiment in which fear is elicited by exposing subjects to a horror short. The results show that fear reduces reporting, and aggressor anonymity offsets the effect of fear.
我们进行了一项激励实验,以评估匿名(证人和施暴者)和机构类型(是否有法律执行)对证人报告亲密伴侣暴力倾向的影响。我们使用了一个假设的小插曲,将受试者置于IPV案件的证人角色,他们必须决定是否在涉及匿名条件和机构类型变化的四种不同治疗中报告IPV。我们发现,保持攻击者的匿名性,并能够向执法机构(警察而不是社会服务机构)报告,促进了证人报告。此外,我们通过设计一个实验室实验来检验恐惧驱动这些结果的潜在假设,在这个实验中,恐惧被暴露在恐怖短片中。结果表明,恐惧减少了举报,而攻击者的匿名性抵消了恐惧的影响。
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引用次数: 0
How natural disasters spread conflict 自然灾害是如何传播冲突的
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105194
Ashani Amarasinghe , Paul A. Raschky , Yves Zenou , Junjie Zhou
This paper studies how natural disasters spread conflicts within a network. We first construct a new panel data set that combines geo-referenced information about conflict events and natural disasters, for 5,944 districts in 53 African countries, over the period 1989–2020. Considering natural disasters as exogenous shocks that affect the combatants’ activity in a locality, we find that natural disasters decrease conflict incidence in the affected locality, increase conflict incidence in neighbouring localities, and lead to an overall net increase in conflict incidence. The spatial dispersion of conflict varies by the level of local rent-seeking opportunities and the level of international, post-disaster aid. We then provide a simple theoretical framework that may explain this conflict dispersion pattern. Findings provide important implications for implementing local and aggregate level conflict mitigation policies.
本文研究了自然灾害如何在网络中传播冲突。我们首先构建了一个新的面板数据集,该数据集结合了1989-2020年期间53个非洲国家5944个地区的冲突事件和自然灾害的地理参考信息。将自然灾害作为影响当地战斗人员活动的外生冲击,我们发现自然灾害降低了受影响地区的冲突发生率,增加了邻近地区的冲突发生率,并导致冲突发生率总体净增加。冲突的空间分散程度因当地寻租机会的水平和国际灾后援助的水平而异。然后,我们提供了一个简单的理论框架,可以解释这种冲突分散模式。调查结果对实施地方和总体层面的缓解冲突政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Inconvenient truths: A note on information avoidance and the price of fairness 难以忽视的真相:关于信息回避和公平的代价
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105188
Joël J. van der Weele , Cristina Figueroa-Sisniega
Previous literature has shown that people are often reluctant to learn whether individually profitable actions have negative consequences for others. In an experimental allocation decision, we vary the ‘inconvenience’ of becoming informed about the payoffs of another player by changing the costs and benefits of choosing the fair outcome. Making the fair allocation cheaper to implement turns out to have a multiplier effect, raising both altruistic choices of informed subjects and the fraction of subjects that chooses to become informed. Thus, in situations of uncertainty, subsidizing altruistic choices to decision makers could be an effective tool for raising social welfare. By contrast, variations in the size of recipients’ potential payoffs have a smaller effect on ignorance and fair choices.
先前的文献表明,人们通常不愿意了解个人利益行为是否会对他人产生负面影响。在一个实验性的分配决策中,我们通过改变选择公平结果的成本和收益来改变获知另一个参与者收益的“不便”。事实证明,降低公平分配的实施成本会产生乘数效应,既提高了知情主体的利他选择,也提高了选择知情的主体的比例。因此,在不确定的情况下,补贴决策者的利他选择可能是提高社会福利的有效工具。相比之下,接受者潜在回报大小的变化对无知和公平选择的影响较小。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-step delegation and the frequency of immoral decisions: Theory and experiment 多步骤授权与不道德决策的频率:理论与实验
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105159
Frauke von Bieberstein , Eberhard Feess , Natalie Packham
People who can increase their payoff by violating a moral norm may delegate decisions to dilute their perception of responsibility, which can lead to a higher overall frequency of moral transgressions. To structure the different effects at work, we first develop a model with multiple delegation stages where decision makers have private information on their lying costs and dilution of responsibility. Our model shows that the impact of delegation is generally ambiguous, but also identifies intuitive sufficient conditions for more moral transgressions with delegation. We then perform a large-scale online experiment where subjects in groups of three can increase their payoff by lying about the outcome of a lottery. We find no evidence that delegation increases the overall lying frequency. Estimating the subjects’ preferences from the data, we find a normal distribution for lying costs and a strongly negatively skewed distribution for a rather low dilution effect.
那些可以通过违反道德规范来增加收益的人可能会委派决策来淡化他们对责任的感知,这可能会导致道德违规的总体频率更高。为了构建工作中的不同影响,我们首先开发了一个具有多个授权阶段的模型,其中决策者拥有关于其说谎成本和责任稀释的私人信息。我们的模型表明,授权的影响通常是模糊的,但也确定了更多的道德越界的直观充分条件。然后,我们进行了一个大规模的在线实验,在这个实验中,三人一组的受试者可以通过对彩票的结果撒谎来增加他们的回报。我们没有发现任何证据表明授权会增加撒谎的总体频率。从数据中估计受试者的偏好,我们发现说谎成本呈正态分布,而稀释效应较低时呈强烈的负偏态分布。
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引用次数: 0
Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations 宏观审慎政策与房地产市场预期
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105191
Pei Kuang , Kaushik Mitra , Li Tang , Shihan Xie
This paper studies how macroprudential policy changes affect consumers’ housing market expectations and housing affordability perceptions in the United Kingdom. We conduct a large-scale online survey experiment presenting hypothetical changes of three borrower-based macroprudential tools: residential loan-to-value (LTV), buy-to-let LTV, and loan-to-income ratios. We find that policy tightening lowers house price expectations, reduces homebuying intentions, and worsens affordability assessments, while loosening has the opposite effects. The residential LTV ratio is the most effective tool. To interpret these findings, we embed our survey estimates into a dynamic model linking expectations, credit, and housing demand. The model shows that immediate belief shifts significantly amplify house price and consumption responses, highlighting the importance of expectations in the transmission of macroprudential policy.
本文研究了宏观审慎政策变化如何影响英国消费者的住房市场预期和住房负担能力认知。我们进行了一项大规模的在线调查实验,展示了三种基于借款人的宏观审慎工具的假设变化:住房贷款价值比(LTV)、买房出租贷款价值比(LTV)和贷款收入比。我们发现,政策收紧降低了房价预期,降低了购房意愿,并恶化了负担能力评估,而放松则有相反的效果。住宅贷款价值比率是最有效的工具。为了解释这些发现,我们将我们的调查估计嵌入到一个连接预期、信贷和住房需求的动态模型中。该模型表明,即时信念转变显著放大了房价和消费反应,突出了预期在宏观审慎政策传导中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Boosting donation and welfare: Augmenting donor-priority rule with information provision 促进捐赠和福利:通过信息提供增强捐赠者优先规则
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105181
Min Fang , Mengling Li , Yohanes E. Riyanto
The global organ shortage poses significant welfare challenges. This study examines policy interventions to incentivize deceased organ donor registration and enhance welfare, focusing on donor-priority incentives and information provision. Our laboratory experiment reveals that granting allocation priority to registered donors boosts donor registration but reduces welfare due to adverse selection. Delaying the timing of donor-priority benefits improves welfare by enhancing donation quality but reduces the registration rate. Augmenting donor-priority rule with information provision proves more effective, simultaneously increasing donor registration and welfare. These findings highlight the potential of combining donor-priority incentives with information provision to alleviate organ shortages while promoting efficiency and social welfare.
全球器官短缺带来了重大的福利挑战。本研究探讨了激励已故器官捐献者登记和提高福利的政策干预措施,重点关注捐赠者优先激励和信息提供。我们的实验室实验表明,给予注册捐赠者分配优先权促进了捐赠者注册,但由于逆向选择而降低了福利。延迟捐赠者优先福利的时间通过提高捐赠质量来改善福利,但降低了注册率。事实证明,通过提供信息来增强捐助者优先规则更为有效,同时增加了捐助者的登记和福利。这些发现强调了将捐赠者优先激励与信息提供相结合的潜力,以缓解器官短缺,同时提高效率和社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
The distribution of national income in Germany, 1992–2019 1992-2019年德国国民收入分配
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105149
Stefan Bach , Charlotte Bartels , Theresa Neef
This paper estimates and analyzes the distribution and composition of pre-tax national income in Germany since reunification, combining personal income tax returns, household survey data, and national accounts. We find that pre-tax national income inequality has increased since the 1990s, though to a lesser extent than suggested by previous studies. Our results draw parallels in top income structure and concentration to the United States: Half of the top 1% earners are non-corporate business owners in labor-intensive professions contrasting with corporate top incomes in France. Also the concentration of pre-tax national income in Germany is similar to the United States and higher than in France.
本文结合个人所得税申报表、家庭调查数据和国民账户,对德国统一以来税前国民收入的分布和构成进行了估计和分析。我们发现,自20世纪90年代以来,税前国民收入不平等有所增加,尽管程度不如以前的研究所表明的那样大。我们的研究结果在最高收入结构和集中度方面与美国相似:收入最高的1%人群中有一半是从事劳动密集型行业的非企业企业主,与法国的最高收入企业形成鲜明对比。此外,德国的税前国民收入集中度与美国相似,高于法国。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating euro area output gap dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database 估计欧元区产出缺口动态:来自更新的全区域模型数据库的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105179
Mahmut S. İpek , Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
We estimate the output gap for the euro area and 20 member countries using a variety of statistical models, based on 55 years of data. We also update the Area-Wide Model Database (AWMD) through 2025Q2, ensuring it remains publicly accessible. Our key findings are: (1) while statistical models broadly agree on the timing of the peaks and troughs, uncertainty persists about the business cycle’s exact state due to differing estimates of the potential output, (2) statistical and institutional estimates generally align but diverge on the size of the output gap, (3) the output gaps of the five largest euro area countries are strongly correlated with each other and the overall euro area. Our work provides an important tool for understanding the business cycle dynamics of Europe’s economy and offers a reliable, official output gap measure for policymakers and economists.
我们基于55年的数据,使用各种统计模型来估计欧元区和20个成员国的产出缺口。我们还通过2025Q2更新了全区域模型数据库(AWMD),确保它仍然可以公开访问。我们的主要发现是:(1)虽然统计模型在高峰和低谷的时间上大致一致,但由于对潜在产出的不同估计,商业周期的确切状态仍然存在不确定性;(2)统计和制度估计总体上一致,但在产出缺口的大小上存在分歧;(3)欧元区五大国家的产出缺口彼此之间以及整个欧元区之间存在强烈的相关性。我们的工作为理解欧洲经济的商业周期动态提供了重要工具,并为政策制定者和经济学家提供了可靠的官方产出缺口衡量标准。
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引用次数: 0
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European Economic Review
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