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Higher-order forward guidance 高阶前向制导
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106108
Marc Dordal i Carreras , Seung Joo Lee
This paper develops a model of business cycles with endogenous volatility at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and central-bank forward guidance. We deliver three main results. First, a credible commitment to future stabilization curbs excess volatility at the ZLB. Second, pledging not to stabilize later can shift the economy onto more favorable equilibrium paths, exposing a trade-off between future stabilization and reduced aggregate volatility at the ZLB. Third, keeping the timing of future stabilization uncertain strictly dominates other forward-guidance strategies.
本文建立了一个具有内生性波动率为零下限(ZLB)和央行前瞻指引的经济周期模型。我们提供了三个主要结果。首先,对未来稳定的可信承诺抑制了ZLB的过度波动。其次,承诺以后不稳定可以使经济转向更有利的均衡路径,从而暴露出未来稳定与降低ZLB总波动性之间的权衡。第三,保持未来稳定时间的不确定性严格支配着其他前瞻性指导策略。
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引用次数: 0
Middlemen, inventories and economic dynamics 中间商、库存和经济动态
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106113
Chao Gu , Lu Wang , Randall Wright
We study dynamics in frictional markets with intermediated trade, where middlemen can buy goods or assets from sellers, hold them as inventory, and sell when contacting appropriate buyers. Importantly, buyers have heterogeneous match-specific valuations, letting us characterize equilibrium in terms of reservation trading strategies (related papers with homogeneous valuations imply bang-bang solutions that are awkward for the economics and mathematics). Using bifurcation theory, we show there are equilibria where market participation, volume, prices, liquidity and other variables fluctuate as self-fulfilling prophecies. The dynamics emerge from strategic considerations, not mechanical assumptions, like increasing returns or other such devices in related models.
我们研究了中介贸易摩擦市场的动态,中间商可以从卖家那里购买商品或资产,将其作为库存,并在联系合适的买家时出售。重要的是,买家有异质匹配特定的估值,这让我们可以用保留交易策略来描述均衡(同质估值的相关论文暗示了对经济学和数学来说很尴尬的砰砰解决方案)。利用分岔理论,我们表明存在均衡,其中市场参与,数量,价格,流动性和其他变量波动作为自我实现的预言。这种动力来自战略考虑,而不是机械假设,比如相关模型中的收益增加或其他类似装置。
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引用次数: 0
Intertemporal bundling 跨时期的捆绑
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106127
Jingfeng Lu , Wenbo Zhao
This paper studies when and how intertemporal bundling arises in optimal dynamic selling mechanisms in a two-period setting, where two objects (A and B) are sequentially available for sale. When the buyer’s values of the two objects (vA and vB respectively) are independent, in contrast to conventional insight from simultaneous sales, we find in our setting that there is no loss in relying on separate sales for optimal design. This result extends under widely adopted regularity conditions when the values are positively correlated in the sense that vB is stochastically increasing in vA. However, if vB is stochastically decreasing in vA, separate sales are no longer optimal, and the optimal integrated design features intertemporal bundling. When it is always efficient to provide each good, the optimal selling mechanism is implemented by offering a menu of intertemporal bundles with different prices, where each bundle consists of the second object together with a probabilistic proportion of the first object. In particular, if the buyer’s virtual value of the first good is always non-negative, pure bundling becomes optimal.
本文研究了在两周期最优动态销售机制中,当两个对象(a和B)依次可供销售时,跨期捆绑何时以及如何产生。当买家对两个对象的价值(分别为vA和vB)是独立的,与同时销售的传统见解相反,我们发现在我们的设置中,依靠单独销售来实现最佳设计并没有损失。这一结果在广泛采用的正则性条件下得到推广,当vB在vA中随机增加时,当vB在vA中随机减少时,单独销售不再是最优的,最优的集成设计以跨期捆绑为特征。当提供每种商品总是有效时,最优销售机制是通过提供具有不同价格的跨期捆绑包菜单来实现的,其中每个捆绑包由第二种商品和第一种商品的概率比例组成。特别是,如果买方对第一件商品的虚拟价值总是非负的,那么纯捆绑就成为最优的。
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “Assignment problems with complementarities” [J. Econ. Theory 165 (2016) 209-241] “具有互补性的分配问题”述评[J]。经济学。理论165 (2016)209-241]
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106130
Daniel Kornbluth , Alexey Kushnir , Thanh Nguyen , Rakesh Vohra
Nguyen et al. (2016) introduce the Bundled Probabilistic Serial and Bundled Probabilistic Serial under Limited Complementarities mechanisms for allocating bundles of indivisible objects under ordinal preferences over bundles. They present efficiency, fairness, and incentive properties of the two mechanisms, showing both to be ordinally efficient, weakly envy-free, weakly strategy-proof, and asymptotically strategy-proof. We provide counterexamples demonstrating that the Bundled Probabilistic Serial mechanism is not weakly strategy-proof and the Bundled Probabilistic Serial under Limited Complementarities mechanism is not weakly envy-free, weakly strategy-proof, or asymptotically strategy-proof. We also revise proofs for the remaining properties.
Nguyen et al.(2016)引入了有限互补下的捆绑概率序列和捆绑概率序列机制,用于在顺序偏好下分配不可分割对象束。他们提出了两种机制的效率、公平和激励性质,证明了两种机制都是通常有效的、弱无嫉妒的、弱策略证明的和渐近策略证明的。我们提供了反例,证明了捆绑概率序列机制不是弱策略证明,有限互补机制下的捆绑概率序列不是弱无嫉妒、弱策略证明或渐近策略证明。我们还修改了其余性质的证明。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the inefficiency of multi-unit auctions for normal goods 对普通商品多单位拍卖的低效率进行量化
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106094
Simon Essig Aberg , Brian Baisa
We study multi-unit auctions for homogeneous goods in a private-value setting where bidders have multi-unit demand and non-negative wealth effects. When bidders have quasilinear preferences, the Vickrey auction implements an efficient outcome in dominant strategies. When bidders have positive wealth effects, recent impossibility results find that no auction implements an efficient outcome.
We quantify the worst-case inefficiency of the Vickrey auction and other multi-unit auctions when bidders have positive wealth effects. We measure an auction's worst-case inefficiency as the largest compensating variation associated with any Pareto improvement over an undominated auction outcome. We show that the Vickrey auction is ‘nearly’ efficient when the strength of bidder wealth effects is sufficiently small. This result follows because the set of undominated bids in the Vickrey auction collapses to truthfully reporting demand as bidder wealth effects become small. We also compare the worst-case inefficiency of the Vickrey auction with that of the uniform-price and discriminatory auctions.
我们研究了私有价值环境下同质商品的多单位拍卖,其中竞标者有多单位需求和非负财富效应。当竞标者具有拟线性偏好时,维克里拍卖在优势策略下实现了有效的结果。当竞标者具有积极的财富效应时,最近的不可能性结果发现,没有一场拍卖能实现有效的结果。我们量化了维克里拍卖和其他多单位拍卖在投标人具有积极财富效应时的最坏情况下的低效率。我们将拍卖的最坏情况下的低效率衡量为与任何帕累托改进相关的最大补偿变化。我们表明,当竞标者财富效应的强度足够小时,维克里拍卖是“接近”有效的。之所以会出现这种结果,是因为随着竞标者财富效应变小,维克里拍卖会上的非主导竞价组瓦解,无法如实报告需求。我们还比较了维克里拍卖与统一价格和歧视性拍卖的最坏情况下的低效率。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous business cycles in overlapping generations models with time inconsistency 具有时间不一致性的重叠代模型中的内生商业周期
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106104
Eungsik Kim, Jiayi Li
This paper investigates the implications of incorporating quasi-hyperbolic discounting preferences and extending the economic lifespan for the emergence of endogenous business cycles. Using a three-period overlapping generations model, we examine how quasi-hyperbolic discounting influences the dynamics of deterministic cycles and local sunspot equilibria. The presence of a middle-aged generation plays a key role in generating an elasticity of intertemporal substitution that is lower than the inverse of risk aversion, interacting with consumers’ time-inconsistent behavior. A lower EIS strengthens gross complementarity between dated goods and thereby contributes to the existence of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling, belief-driven fluctuations. We show that our three-period model with time-inconsistent preferences makes two-period cycles and local indeterminacy more plausible than in a standard two-period framework with exponential discounting, as it expands the set of parameter values under which such endogenous fluctuations can arise.
本文探讨了纳入准双曲贴现偏好和延长经济寿命对内生经济周期出现的影响。利用三周期重叠代模型,我们研究了准双曲折现如何影响确定性周期和局部太阳黑子平衡的动力学。中年一代的存在与消费者的时间不一致行为相互作用,在产生低于风险厌恶逆的跨期替代弹性方面发挥了关键作用。较低的环境影响指标加强了过时商品之间的总互补性,从而导致多重平衡和自我实现、信念驱动的波动的存在。我们表明,我们的具有时间不一致偏好的三期模型使两期周期和局部不确定性比具有指数贴现的标准两期框架更合理,因为它扩展了可能产生这种内生波动的参数值集。
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引用次数: 0
Persuasion with verifiable information 用可证实的信息说服
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106102
Maria Titova , Kun Zhang
This paper studies a game in which an informed sender with state-independent preferences uses verifiable messages to convince a receiver to choose an action from a finite set. We characterize the equilibrium outcomes of the game and compare them with commitment outcomes in information design. We provide conditions under which a commitment outcome is an equilibrium outcome and identify environments in which the sender does not benefit from commitment power. Our findings offer insights into the interchangeability of verifiability and commitment in applied settings.
本文研究了一个具有状态独立偏好的知情发送方使用可验证消息说服接收方从有限集合中选择行动的博弈。我们描述了博弈的均衡结果,并将其与信息设计中的承诺结果进行了比较。我们提供了承诺结果是均衡结果的条件,并确定了发送者不从承诺权力中受益的环境。我们的研究结果为可验证性和承诺在应用环境中的互换性提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Informational frictions in funding and credit markets 融资和信贷市场中的信息摩擦
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106101
Michael Sockin
A key function of financial intermediaries is to borrow in financial markets and lend to firms. I show that this creates informational linkages between repo and corporate bond markets. My key result is improving transparency in either market may lower welfare even if funding liquidity improves. My model’s predictions are consistent with the bond and repo market dysfunction during the 2008 global financial and COVID-19 crises, and the impact of the introduction of TRACE on bond markets in 2002. Central to my findings is that bond prices serve as useful signals that minimize firm’s aggregate distress costs by coordinating their borrowing and intermediaries’ lending activities.
金融中介机构的一个关键功能是在金融市场上借款并向企业放贷。我表明,这在回购和公司债券市场之间建立了信息联系。我的主要结论是,即使资金流动性改善,提高两个市场的透明度也可能降低福利。我的模型的预测与2008年全球金融危机和COVID-19危机期间债券和回购市场的功能失调以及2002年引入TRACE对债券市场的影响是一致的。我的发现的核心是,债券价格作为一种有用的信号,通过协调企业的借贷和中介机构的借贷活动,使企业的总困境成本最小化。
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引用次数: 0
Incomplete financial markets, the social cost of carbon and constrained efficient carbon pricing 不完整的金融市场、碳的社会成本和受限制的有效碳定价
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106105
Felix Kubler
This paper examines constrained optimal carbon pricing in a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets. A carbon policy consists of state-dependent carbon taxes and a sharing rule for tax revenue recycling. The social cost of carbon (SCC) is defined as the present value of the future marginal costs of additional CO2 emissions, discounted at (personalized) prices. For the case of complete markets, we state simple, sufficient conditions that ensure that setting carbon taxes equal to the SCC results in a Pareto-efficient competitive equilibrium. When markets are incomplete, constrained Pareto-efficient carbon taxes generically differ from the SCC. To examine the potential quantitative importance of these differences, we consider an Aiyagari [1994]-style model with a climate change externality. We prove that (i) the SCC cannot be estimated from aggregate damage functions and market prices alone, and (ii) the deviations of constrained optimal carbon taxes from the SCC can be arbitrarily large.
本文研究了不完全资产市场下一般均衡模型下的约束最优碳定价问题。碳政策包括各州依赖的碳税和税收回收的共享规则。碳的社会成本(SCC)被定义为额外二氧化碳排放的未来边际成本的现值,按(个性化)价格贴现。对于完全市场,我们陈述了简单的充分条件,以确保设定碳税等于SCC会产生帕累托有效的竞争均衡。当市场不完全时,受约束的帕累托有效碳税通常不同于SCC。为了检验这些差异在数量上的潜在重要性,我们考虑了Aiyagari[1994]风格的气候变化外部性模型。我们证明了:(i)不能仅从总损害函数和市场价格来估计碳排放上限,(ii)约束最优碳税与碳排放上限的偏差可以任意大。
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引用次数: 0
HANK on speed: Robust nonlinear solutions using automatic differentiation HANK关于速度:使用自动微分的鲁棒非线性解决方案
IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106106
Gregor Boehl
Building on automatic differentiation, I propose a robust and efficient solution method for perfect-foresight transition dynamics in heterogeneous agent models with many aggregate equations. Compared with existing methods, it allows to capture strong nonlinearities, including, e.g., occasionally binding constraints, and dynamics that deviate significantly from the steady state. A powerful and user friendly open-source reference implementation is provided, which efficiently computes nonlinear solutions to the canonical HANK model within seconds, including the transition dynamics of the full distribution. I challenge this method by studying a permanent shift in redistribution policy in a medium-scale two-asset HANK model featuring many aggregate frictions. The results indicate that, as firms seek to deplete their capital stock, the transition path is characterized by a prolonged deflationary episode, the severity of which depends on the interaction between nonlinear constraints, such as the interest rate lower bound and downward nominal wage rigidity.
在自动微分的基础上,提出了具有多聚合方程的异构智能体模型的完全预见转移动力学的鲁棒高效求解方法。与现有方法相比,它允许捕获强非线性,包括,例如,偶尔绑定约束,以及明显偏离稳态的动态。提供了一个功能强大且用户友好的开源参考实现,它可以在几秒钟内有效地计算出规范HANK模型的非线性解,包括完整分布的转换动态。我通过研究具有许多总摩擦的中等规模双资产HANK模型中再分配政策的永久变化来挑战这种方法。结果表明,当企业寻求耗尽其资本存量时,过渡路径的特征是长期通货紧缩,其严重程度取决于非线性约束之间的相互作用,例如利率下限和名义工资刚性下降。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Theory
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