Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

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Dynamic macroeconomic implications of immigration 移民对动态宏观经济的影响

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103747

Conny Olovsson , Karl Walentin , Andreas Westermark

International immigration flows are large, volatile, and increasing. We document the dynamic implications of immigration, and account for the differential unemployment and labor force participation rates between immigrants and natives. To quantify the effects of immigration, we use Swedish population registry data and productivity estimates from a matched employer–employee dataset. A refugee (economic) immigration shock yields large initial negative (positive but delayed) effects on GDP per capita and employment rates, substantially larger than, but with the same sign as the corresponding steady state effects. This reflects the empirical fact that labor market integration is a gradual process over many years.

国际移民流动量大、不稳定且不断增加。我们记录了移民的动态影响，并解释了移民和本地人之间不同的失业率和劳动力参与率。为了量化移民的影响，我们使用了瑞典人口登记数据和来自匹配的雇主-雇员数据集的生产率估计值。难民（经济）移民冲击对人均 GDP 和就业率产生了巨大的初始负（正但延迟）效应，大大高于相应的稳态效应，但符号相同。这反映了劳动力市场一体化是一个多年的渐进过程这一经验事实。

引用次数: 0

Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy 能源价格冲击、失业和货币政策

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734

Nicolò Gnocato

Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in production and a non-homothetic consumption good. Unemployment forces workers to consume less due to imperfect insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, to allocate a larger consumption share to energy. The heterogeneous exposure of the labor force to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy: the optimal response involves partly accommodating inflation to limit the increase in unemployment and, hence, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock.

能源价格飙升对失业者的打击比对就业者的打击更大，货币政策是否面临着稳定通胀和失业之间的权衡？来自欧元区消费者预期调查的数据显示，失业不仅迫使工人降低消费，而且将更高比例的消费用于能源。我将这一证据纳入了一个具有劳动力市场摩擦的可操作性异质代理新凯恩斯模型，在该模型中，能源既是生产中的补充投入，也是一种非同调消费品。由于保险不完善，失业迫使工人减少消费，而且由于偏好是非同调的，他们会将更大的消费份额分配给能源。劳动力受能源价格上涨影响的异质性导致了货币政策的内生性权衡：最佳应对措施包括部分放宽通胀，以限制失业率的上升，从而防止工人受到更大的冲击。

引用次数: 0

Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance 过度反应和宏观经济的外部平衡波动

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103750

Seunghoon Na , Donghoon Yoo

We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-international data, we estimate a quantitative SOE-RBC model with DE that captures the volatility and cyclicality specific to emerging countries and identifies diagnosticity levels consistent with prior research, and reduces reliance on trend-driven TFP shocks. Our findings highlight DE as an empirically plausible mechanism, enriching the literature by demonstrating how imperfect, memory-based expectations influence macroeconomic dynamics in an open economy context.

我们将诊断性预期（DE）纳入小型开放经济（SOE）模型，为商业周期，尤其是新兴国家的商业周期提供了新的见解。诊断性预期会引起国内吸收的过度反应，导致反周期的外部收支平衡，以及由根植于遥远记忆的意外所驱动的内生繁荣-萧条周期。这一框架为理性预期（RE）下的传统国有企业模型中的永久性收入冲击提供了一种认知替代方案。利用阿根廷的宏观国际数据，我们估算了一个带有 DE 的定量国有企业-RBC 模型，该模型捕捉了新兴国家特有的波动性和周期性，确定了与先前研究一致的诊断水平，并减少了对趋势驱动的全要素生产率冲击的依赖。我们的研究结果凸显了 DE 这一经验上合理的机制，通过展示不完美的、基于记忆的预期如何在开放经济背景下影响宏观经济动态，丰富了相关文献。

引用次数: 0

Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules 贸易战与货币规则的优化设计

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103726

Stéphane Auray , Michael B. Devereux , Aurélien Eyquem

Countries have an incentive to use tariffs to gain advantage over trade partners, but an optimal tariff must weigh the benefits of an improved terms of trade against the costs that the tariff imposes on the domestic economy. In the presence of monopoly distortions and nominal rigidities, the stance of monetary policy may have a large effect on the evaluation of these costs. In a global economy where all countries set tariffs unilaterally in a ‘trade war’, the final outcome can differ dramatically depending on different monetary policy rules. We set out a model of a trade war in a New Keynesian open-economy model. For any one country, a tariff improves the terms of trade but is costly due to its deflationary effect on the domestic economy. A monetary rule which targets the CPI or stabilizes the nominal exchange rate exacerbates these latter costs, and leads to lower equilibrium tariff rates in a trade war. Furthermore, an optimally delegated monetary rule can in fact completely eliminate a trade war.

各国都有利用关税获得对贸易伙伴优势的动机，但最优关税必须权衡改善贸易条件的好处与关税对国内经济造成的成本。在存在垄断扭曲和名义刚性的情况下，货币政策的立场可能对这些成本的评估产生重大影响。在全球经济中，所有国家都在“贸易战”中单方面设定关税，根据不同的货币政策规则，最终结果可能会有很大差异。我们在新凯恩斯主义的开放经济模型中建立了一个贸易战模型。对任何一个国家来说，关税改善了贸易条件，但由于其对国内经济的通货紧缩效应而代价高昂。以CPI为目标或稳定名义汇率的货币规则会加剧后一种成本，并导致贸易战中均衡关税税率的降低。此外，最优授权的货币规则实际上可以完全消除贸易战。

引用次数: 0

Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks 预测修正作为应对新闻冲击的工具

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103729

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia

Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about agents’ expectations, proxied by professional forecasters’ outlook revisions, convey sufficient information to identify the effects of expected future technological changes, or news shocks. The approach benefits from not depending on an empirical technology measure or on assumptions about common trends and the timing of the technological change. News shocks cause a strong anticipation effect in investment, while there is less evidence of consumption smoothing—in line with news-driven business cycle models with financial frictions.

一旦宏观经济消息传来，经济主体就会更新他们对经济长期基本面的看法。我表明，由专业预测者的前景修正所代表的有关主体预期的信号，传达了足够的信息，以确定预期的未来技术变革或新闻冲击的影响。该方法得益于不依赖于经验技术度量或对共同趋势和技术变革时间的假设。新闻冲击对投资产生强烈的预期效应，而消费平滑的证据较少，这与新闻驱动的商业周期模型与金融摩擦相一致。

引用次数: 0

Active vs. passive policy and the trade-off between output and inflation in HANK HANK中主动与被动政策以及产出与通胀之间的权衡

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103732

Noah Kwicklis

When fiscal policy is active and monetary policy is passive in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model, deficit-financed transfers to low-asset households lead to similar cumulative inflation but greater increases in real output than transfers to wealthier households. I use the inverse of the “Phillips multiplier”, the price level sacrifice ratio, to quantify this dynamic. Household heterogeneity and targeted policy change the timing of output gaps, making this consistent with the Phillips Curve and rendering conventional sacrifice ratio intuition misleading for assessing the inflation/output trade-off between policies.

在异质代理新凯恩斯（HANK）模型中，当财政政策是积极的而货币政策是被动的，赤字融资转移到低资产家庭会导致类似的累积通货膨胀，但实际产出的增长比转移到富裕家庭更大。我使用“菲利普斯乘数”的倒数，即价格水平牺牲比率来量化这种动态。家庭异质性和有针对性的政策改变了产出缺口的时间，使其与菲利普斯曲线一致，并使传统的牺牲率直觉在评估政策之间的通胀/产出权衡时具有误导性。

引用次数: 0

Discussion of “Heterogeneous Job Ladders” “异质职业阶梯”的探讨

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103727

Gregor Jarosch

引用次数: 0

Discussion of “Singles, Couples, Time-Averaging, and Taxation” “单身、夫妻、时间平均和税收”讨论

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103719

Richard Blundell , Eric French

This discussion comments on “Singles, Couples, Time-Averaging, and Taxation” by Hans Holter, Lars Ljungqvist, Thomas Sargent, and Serhiy Stepanchuk. This work represents an exciting new agenda, combining recent findings in the dynamic micro labor supply and retirement literature with key features of the macro environment by including general equilibrium feedback and a government budget constraint. We point to some areas where the specification could be improved but these do not detract from the key insights in this paper and the significant steps it makes toward building a coherent micro and macro framework for research on labor supply and taxation.

本次讨论是对Hans Holter， Lars Ljungqvist， Thomas Sargent和Serhiy Stepanchuk的《单身，夫妻，时间平均和税收》的评论。这项工作代表了一个令人兴奋的新议程，将动态微观劳动力供给和退休文献的最新发现与宏观环境的关键特征结合起来，包括一般均衡反馈和政府预算约束。我们指出了规范可以改进的一些领域，但这些并没有减损本文的关键见解，也没有减损本文为研究劳动力供给和税收建立连贯的微观和宏观框架所采取的重要步骤。

引用次数: 0

Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle” 关于“全生命周期联合搜索”的探讨

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731

Alessandra Fogli

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous job ladders 异构工作阶梯

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103711

Katarína Borovičková, Claudia Macaluso

We investigate different wage growth rates over the life cycle for poor and rich workers, and how they relate to the frequency and quality of job-to-job transitions. Using the universe of labor market histories for Austrian workers born in 1960–62 to, we show that workers who are at the bottom of the earnings distribution have higher employer-to-employer transition rates than richer workers throughout their life. Nevertheless, they work for worse- and worse-paying firms as they age and are more likely to undergo unemployment spells at all ages. We propose a structural framework with learning by doing and heterogeneity along five dimensions: initial level of human capital, learning ability, and job separation propensity on the worker side, and productivity level and quality of offered learning opportunities on the employer side. Our model replicates the wage gap and the difference in the frequency of labor market transitions we document in the data, and allows us to investigate several dimensions of heterogeneity in the quality of labor market transitions. We find that poor workers’ lackluster wage growth stems from a combination of deteriorating human capital, employment in low-productivity jobs, and scarce on-the-job learning opportunities. We then evaluate a policy which matches low-wage workers to high-learning employers. We find that ameliorating the learning opportunities early in a worker’s career has a non-negligible impact on lifetime earnings. The gains from matching with a better employer greatly increase with job stability, as lower separation rates limit human capital depreciation and improve the odds of matching with high-productivity employers in the future.

我们研究了穷人和富人工人生命周期中不同的工资增长率，以及它们与工作到工作转换的频率和质量之间的关系。利用1960 - 1962年出生的奥地利工人的劳动力市场历史，我们表明，处于收入分配底部的工人在其一生中比较富有的工人有更高的雇主到雇主的转换率。然而，随着年龄的增长，他们在薪酬越来越低的公司工作，而且更有可能在各个年龄段都经历失业期。我们提出了一个“边做边学”和异质性的结构框架，包括五个维度：劳动者的初始人力资本水平、学习能力和工作分离倾向，雇主的生产率水平和提供的学习机会质量。我们的模型复制了工资差距和我们在数据中记录的劳动力市场转型频率的差异，并允许我们调查劳动力市场转型质量异质性的几个维度。我们发现，贫困工人工资增长乏力的原因是人力资本不断恶化、从事低生产率工作以及在职学习机会稀缺。然后，我们评估了一项将低工资工人与高水平雇主相匹配的政策。我们发现，在工人的职业生涯早期改善学习机会对终身收入有不可忽视的影响。与更好的雇主匹配的收益随着工作的稳定性而大大增加，因为较低的离职率限制了人力资本折旧，并提高了未来与高生产率雇主匹配的几率。

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