Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

英文中文

Committed to flexible fiscal rules 致力于灵活的财政规则

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809

Christoph Grosse-Steffen , Laura Pagenhardt , Malte Rieth

We study the implications of fiscal rules for macroeconomic stabilization when countries are hit by adverse exogenous shocks. Exploiting the unpredictability of natural disasters, we document that economies with a fiscal rule absorb these shocks better than those without: the responses of GDP and private demand are significantly higher. This difference is coupled with more expansionary fiscal policy and hinges on fiscal space. We analyze the interaction of rule flexibility and rule tightness in a quantitative model of sovereign default that exerts strong market discipline on governments conditional on disaster shocks. The results show potential welfare gains and a countercyclical fiscal response to adverse disaster shocks in the presence of tight rules and escape clauses.

我们研究了当国家受到不利的外生冲击时，财政规则对宏观经济稳定的影响。利用自然灾害的不可预测性，我们证明有财政规则的经济体比没有财政规则的经济体更能吸收这些冲击：GDP和私人需求的反应要高得多。这种差异伴随着更具扩张性的财政政策，并取决于财政空间。我们在主权违约的定量模型中分析了规则灵活性和规则严密性的相互作用，该模型在灾难冲击的条件下对政府施加了强大的市场纪律。结果显示，在存在严格规则和免责条款的情况下，潜在的福利收益和反周期的财政应对不利的灾害冲击。

引用次数: 0

A model of expenditure shocks 支出冲击模型

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103807

Jorge Miranda-Pinto , Daniel Murphy , Kieran James Walsh , Eric R. Young

We introduce a new quantitative model of household expenditure shocks to rationalize the common anecdote of a low-income and low-liquidity household that uses additional income to save (repay debt) rather than consume. Our model also rationalizes key features of the joint dynamics of household-level consumption and income, including our finding that consumption is volatile yet disconnected from income, especially for households experiencing episodes of high consumption. The key feature of our model is stochastic consumption thresholds that yield large utility costs if violated. The stochastic thresholds increase the welfare cost of income fluctuations by an order of magnitude.

我们引入了一个新的家庭支出冲击定量模型，以合理化低收入和低流动性家庭使用额外收入储蓄（偿还债务）而不是消费的常见轶事。我们的模型还合理化了家庭层面消费和收入联合动态的关键特征，包括我们的发现，消费是不稳定的，但与收入脱节，特别是对于经历高消费时期的家庭。我们模型的关键特征是随机消费阈值，如果违反，将产生巨大的效用成本。随机阈值使收入波动的福利成本增加了一个数量级。

引用次数: 0

Optimal unemployment insurance with multiple applications 多重应用的最优失业保险

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103798

Shu Lin Wee

This paper examines how unemployment transfers should be allocated over the business cycle. When risk-averse workers can submit multiple applications, the optimal UI policy is countercyclical. In contrast, optimal policy in a standard search model featuring one-to-one matching is procyclical. In the latter, more generous UI during a downturn discourages search effort, dampening job creation. In the former, decreased search effort aids job creation. Because firms cannot coordinate and commit to not making the same worker an offer, lower search effort by reducing the number of applications sent mitigates this coordination friction. This in turn boosts job creation incentives, supporting employment outcomes.

本文考察了失业转移应如何在经济周期中分配。当规避风险的员工可以提交多个申请时，最优UI策略是逆周期策略。相比之下，以一对一匹配为特征的标准搜索模型中的最优策略是顺周期的。在后一种情况下，在经济低迷时期，更慷慨的UI会阻碍求职努力，从而抑制就业创造。在前者，减少寻找工作有助于创造就业机会。由于公司无法协调并承诺不向同一名员工提供工作机会，因此通过减少发送的申请数量来降低搜索工作量可以缓解这种协调摩擦。这反过来又会刺激创造就业，支持就业成果。

引用次数: 0

Beyond the headline: How personal exposure to inflation shapes the financial choices of households 在标题之外：个人对通货膨胀的敞口如何影响家庭的财务选择

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103800

Merike Kukk , Jan Toczynski , Christoph Basten

Using a unique set of bank account-level data from a period of volatile inflation in a small open economy in 2005–11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find that individual consumption spending responds to personal inflation exposure beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation because they have different expenditure baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation rate, they increase their spending by 1.4%. These responses are consistent with intertemporal substitution when households form their inflation expectations from their personal experience. Increased spending is financed with savings or borrowing, except when households are liquidity-constrained or over-indebted. Extra demand when inflation is already high can make inflation persistent and dependent on its current distribution.

利用2005 - 2011年一个小型开放经济体通胀波动时期的一组独特的银行账户水平数据和互动固定效应估计，我们发现个人消费支出对个人通胀风险的反应超出了总体通胀率。家庭面临不同的通货膨胀，因为他们有不同的支出篮子。个人通胀率每上升一个百分点，他们的支出就会增加1.4%。当家庭从个人经验中形成通胀预期时，这些反应与跨期替代一致。增加的支出由储蓄或借贷提供资金，除非家庭流动性受限或过度负债。在通胀已经很高的情况下，额外的需求可能会使通胀持续下去，并依赖于当前的分布。

引用次数: 0

Merger guidelines for the labor market 劳动力市场的合并指南

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785

David Berger , Thomas Hasenzagl , Kyle Herkenhoff , Simon Mongey , Eric A. Posner

What are the welfare, wage, and output implications of applying merger review guidelines to the labor market? To answer this question, we develop a theory of multi-plant ownership and labor market monopsony. We estimate the model using U.S. Census data and demonstrate the model’s ability to replicate empirically documented paths of employment and wages following mergers. We then simulate a representative set of U.S. mergers in order to evaluate merger review thresholds. Assuming mergers generate efficiency gains of 5 percent, our simulations yield welfare losses under the enforcement of the more lenient 2010 merger guidelines and welfare gains under enforcement of the more stringent 2023 and 1982 merger guidelines. Lastly, we estimate the aggregate effects of allowed mergers on output and labor’s share of income under each set of merger guidelines.

将合并审查准则应用于劳动力市场对福利、工资和产出的影响是什么？为了回答这个问题，我们发展了一个多工厂所有制和劳动力市场垄断的理论。我们使用美国人口普查数据来估计模型，并证明该模型能够复制合并后就业和工资的经验记录路径。然后，我们模拟了一组具有代表性的美国合并，以评估合并审查阈值。假设合并产生5%的效率收益，我们的模拟在执行更宽松的2010年合并指导方针下产生福利损失，在执行更严格的2023年和1982年合并指导方针下产生福利收益。最后，我们估计了在每组合并准则下允许合并对产出和劳动收入份额的总体影响。

引用次数: 0

Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations 助推预期：汽油价格对通胀预期的因果影响

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797

Yoon Joo Jo, Ben Klopack

We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shaping inflation expectations than previously suggested in the literature. We also show experimental evidence that informing households about the tax reduction leads them to adjust their inflation expectations downward. However, we do not find evidence that temporary gas tax suspensions had a stimulative effect on consumption. These findings underscore the potential for alternative policy levers to influence household beliefs and behavior.

我们调查了暂时暂停征收州一级汽油税对通胀预期的影响。使用差异中的差异策略，我们表明，在降低汽油税的州，家庭降低了他们的通胀预期，但政策的影响取决于减税的多少被转嫁到价格上。我们为天然气价格与家庭通胀预期之间的联系提供了新的因果证据，并证明天然气价格在塑造通胀预期方面发挥的作用比文献中先前提出的更为重要。我们还展示了实验证据，即告知家庭减税会导致他们下调通胀预期。然而，我们没有发现证据表明暂时暂停征收汽油税对消费有刺激作用。这些发现强调了其他政策杠杆影响家庭信仰和行为的潜力。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness 主权CoCos和债务减免

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784

Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Francisco Roch

We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government’s borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after adverse shocks. We also study CoCos that, in addition to the payment suspension, stipulate debt forgiveness after adverse shocks. In contrast with no-forgiveness CoCos, debt-forgiveness CoCos reduce debt levels after adverse shocks, thereby reducing default probabilities. Debt-forgiveness CoCos also yield larger welfare gains.

我们研究了一个主权违约模型，在该模型中，政府发行CoCos（或有可转换债券），规定在全球风险溢价（以及政府借贷成本）大幅增加时暂停偿债。我们发现，CoCos允许政府平滑风险溢价冲击对消费的影响，但它们增加了违约频率。通过暂停债务支付，CoCos意味着更高的债务水平，从而在不利冲击后更高的违约概率。我们还研究了CoCos，除了暂停付款外，还规定了不利冲击后的债务减免。与不可减免CoCos相比，债务减免CoCos降低了不利冲击后的债务水平，从而降低了违约概率。债务减免CoCos还能产生更大的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves （重新）连接通货膨胀和劳动力市场：两条曲线的故事

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796

Hie Joo Ahn, Jeremy B. Rudd

We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”

我们提出了一个经验框架，在这个框架中，对工人再分配、总活动和劳动力供给的冲击驱动劳动力市场和通货膨胀的联合动态，再分配冲击有两种形式，取决于它们是由辞职还是由失业引起的。我们发现，这些影响贝弗里奇曲线的结构性冲击对通胀有不同的影响。我们的模型根据每次冲击的贡献完全分解了经验贝弗里奇曲线的移位或沿经验贝弗里奇曲线的移位，并且还允许我们估计与每次冲击相关的菲利普斯相关性；贝弗里奇和菲利普斯的相关性随着时间的推移而变化，这取决于在给定时期内哪种类型的结构性冲击占主导地位。我们发现，伴随着失业的再分配冲击是2019冠状病毒病大流行期间劳动力市场动态和菲利普斯曲线趋陡的关键来源，也是大流行后“软着陆”的重要驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Optimal normalization policy under behavioral expectations 行为预期下的最优规范化策略

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786

Alexandre Carrier , Kostas Mavromatis

We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents’ expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing role for balance sheet management arises when interest rate fluctuations become costly. Finally, our analysis reveals that expectations significantly influence the optimal interest rate trajectory, whereas their impact on the optimal balance sheet path is comparatively minimal.

我们在一个框架中描述了最优正常化政策，在这个框架中，代理人的期望可能偏离理性预期基准，中央银行面临成本推动冲击。当利率波动没有成本时，我们的研究结果表明，无论预期形成过程如何，利率都是管理通胀压力的主要工具，始终优于资产负债表调整。然而，在去锚定预期下，当利率波动代价高昂时，资产负债表管理的作用就会越来越大。最后，我们的分析表明，预期显著影响最优利率轨迹，而它们对最优资产负债表路径的影响相对较小。

引用次数: 0

Negative nominal interest rates and monetary policy 负名义利率与货币政策

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103799

Duhyeong Kim

How much can central banks reduce nominal interest rates? Can the lower bound be controlled by monetary policy? If so, should central banks reduce it to implement negative interest rates? I construct a model with multiple means of payment where the costs of holding paper currency effectively reduce its rate of return, creating a negative effective lower bound on interest rates. I find that central banks can reduce this lower bound with a non-par exchange rate between currency and bank reserves, but doing so raises currency-holding costs for individuals, leading to welfare losses. Moreover, implementing a negative rate by reducing the lower bound has no benefits because this policy combination lowers both the rate of return on currency and the interest rate on financial assets, leaving relative interest rates unchanged.

央行能将名义利率降低多少？利率下限能被货币政策控制吗？如果是这样，央行是否应该降低利率以实施负利率？我构建了一个包含多种支付手段的模型，在这个模型中，持有纸币的成本有效地降低了它的回报率，从而产生了一个负的有效利率下限。我发现，央行可以通过货币与银行储备之间的非平价汇率来降低这一下限，但这样做会增加个人持有货币的成本，从而导致福利损失。此外，通过降低利率下限来实施负利率没有任何好处，因为这种政策组合会降低货币回报率和金融资产利率，使相对利率保持不变。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀