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Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor market polarization
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103701
Toshihiko Mukoyama , Naoki Takayama , Satoshi Tanaka
This study analyzes how labor market frictions interact with firms’ decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the US and Germany in recent years. We find within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less so in the US. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find the model with different firing taxes can replicate the difference in firm-level adjustment patterns across these countries. We conduct two counterfactual experiments for each country, highlighting the different roles played by the within-firm cost of reorganizing the occupational mix and across-firm frictions created by firing taxes. The results suggest the latter plays a more significant role in labor market polarization. Higher firing costs would lead to greater and faster polarization in the US.
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引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs 全民基本收入计划的宏观经济效应
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103615
I develop a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations model to assess the welfare effects of substituting the US income security system with a UBI policy. I study two counterfactual exercises: an expenditure-neutral reform and a large, policy-oriented UBI reform with a transfer equivalent to $1000 monthly, both financed by changes in the consumption tax. The first exercise has a moderate fiscal impact, induces increases in the aggregate output and employment, and reduces earnings and wealth inequality. The second exercise requires a large increase in the consumption tax rate, decreases employment and output, and increases earnings inequality, which moves sideways for wealth. In both cases, disposable income and consumption are more equally distributed, with less accrual at the top. The two economies generate positive welfare gains, with those for the generous UBI economy being larger.
我建立了一个异质代理人世代重叠模型,以评估用全民医保政策取代美国收入保障制度的福利效应。我研究了两个反事实案例:一个是支出中性的改革,另一个是以政策为导向的大规模 UBI 改革,每月转移支付相当于 1000 美元,两者都由消费税的变化提供资金。第一种改革对财政的影响不大,能增加总产出和就业,减少收入和财富的不平等。第二种做法需要大幅提高消费税率,减少就业和产出,加剧收入不平等,财富不平等则呈横向发展。在这两种情况下,可支配收入和消费的分配更加平等,顶层累积的收入减少。这两种经济都产生了正的福利收益,而慷慨的 UBI 经济的福利收益更大。
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引用次数: 0
Phillips meets Beveridge 菲利普斯与贝弗里奇
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660
Régis Barnichon, Adam Hale Shapiro
The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate measure of “slack” in the economy. In this work, we systematically assess the ability of variables commonly used in the literature to (i) predict and (ii) explain inflation fluctuations over time and across U.S. metropolitan areas. In particular, we exploit a newly constructed panel dataset with job openings and vacancy filling cost proxies covering 1982–2022. We find that the vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio and vacancy filling cost proxies outperform other slack measures, in particular the unemployment rate. Beveridge curve shifts—notably, movements in matching efficiency—are responsible for the superior performance of the V/U ratio over unemployment.
菲利普斯曲线在宏观经济学文献中发挥着核心作用。然而,对于模型中驱动通胀的驱动变量,即经济中 "松弛 "的适当衡量标准,却鲜有共识。在这项工作中,我们系统地评估了文献中常用变量(i)预测和(ii)解释不同时期和不同美国大都市地区通胀波动的能力。特别是,我们利用了一个新构建的面板数据集,该数据集包含 1982-2022 年的职位空缺和空缺填补成本代理变量。我们发现,空缺-失业(V/U)比率和空缺填补成本替代指标优于其他松弛指标,尤其是失业率。贝弗里奇曲线的变动--尤其是匹配效率的变动--是空缺-失业比率优于失业率的原因。
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引用次数: 0
People’s understanding of inflation 人们对通货膨胀的理解
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103652
Alberto Binetti , Francesco Nuzzi , Stefanie Stantcheva
This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation—their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs-and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey based on the rich existing literature in economics with two experimental components — a conjoint experiment and an information experiment — to examine how well public views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include government actions, such as increased foreign aid and war-related expenditures, alongside rises in production costs attributed to recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic, oil price fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. Respondents anticipate many negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision-making. Partisan differences emerge distinctly, with Republicans more likely to attribute inflation to government policies and foresee broader negative outcomes, whereas Democrats anticipate greater inequality effects. Inflation is perceived as an unambiguously negative phenomenon without any potential positive economic correlates. Notably, there is a widespread belief that managing inflation can be achieved without significant trade-offs, such as reducing economic activity or increasing unemployment. These perceptions are hard to move experimentally. In terms of policy responses, there is resistance to monetary tightening, consistent with the perceived absence of trade-offs and the belief that it is unnecessary to reduce economic activity to fight inflation. The widespread misconception that inflation rises following increases in interest rates even leads to support for rate cuts to reduce inflation. There is a clear preference for policies that are perceived to have other benefits, such as reducing government debt in progressive ways or increasing corporate taxes, and for support for vulnerable households, despite potential inflationary effects.
本文研究了人们对通货膨胀的理解--他们认为的原因、后果、权衡--以及为减轻其影响而支持的政策。我们以现有的丰富经济学文献为基础,设计了一个新的、详细的在线调查,其中包含两个实验部分--联合实验和信息实验--以考察公众观点与既定经济理论的一致性。我们的主要研究结果表明,受访者认为通货膨胀的主要原因包括政府行为,如增加对外援助和战争相关支出,以及 COVID-19 大流行病、石油价格波动和供应链中断等近期事件导致的生产成本上升。受访者预计通货膨胀会带来许多负面影响,但最显著的影响是增加了家庭决策的复杂性和难度。党派差异明显,共和党人更倾向于将通货膨胀归咎于政府政策,并预见到更广泛的负面影响,而民主党人则预计会产生更大的不平等影响。通货膨胀被认为是一种明确的负面现象,没有任何潜在的积极经济关联。值得注意的是,人们普遍认为,管理通胀可以在不付出重大代价(如减少经济活动或增加失业率)的情况下实现。这些观念很难通过实验来改变。在政策应对方面,人们抵制货币紧缩政策,这与人们认为不需要权衡利弊以及认为没有必要减少经济活动来对抗通胀是一致的。人们普遍误认为加息后通胀会上升,这甚至导致支持降低通胀。人们明显倾向于那些被认为有其他好处的政策,如以渐进的方式减少政府债务或增加公司税,以及支持弱势家庭,尽管这些政策可能会带来通货膨胀的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Comments on Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi, and Stefanie Stantcheva “people's understanding of inflation” 对 Alberto Binetti、Francesco Nuzzi 和 Stefanie Stantcheva "人们对通货膨胀的理解 "的评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103674
Robert J. Shiller
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引用次数: 0
Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer 对 Christina D. Romer 和 David H. Romer 所著 "从历史中汲取成功解除通货紧缩的经验教训 "的评论罗默和 David H. Romer
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646
Donald Kohn
In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982–95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only “moderately committed” to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.
在这些评论中,我将罗默的分析延伸到 1982-95 年,当时通胀率从 6%下降到有效的价格稳定,只出现了一次小规模衰退。尽管在罗默的分类中,美联储只是 "适度致力于 "消除通胀,但美联储还是通过仔细权衡紧缩的成本和收益,在通胀持续缓和的情况下实现了这一目标。虽然政策在明显实现稳定之前数次后退,但成功的原因在于始终关注价格稳定的最终目标,预先阻止通胀激增,并密切关注预期。最后,我就美联储如何在定于 2024 年开始的政策框架 5 年期审查中加强其价格稳定承诺提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020” 讨论 "了解 2020 年以来国际通胀的涨跌"
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103685
Susanto Basu
This discussion comments on the ambitious paper, “Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020,” by Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. The strengths of the DGLM paper are manifest. There is much to learn from it, both about the commonalities of the inflation experiences of this large group of important countries and their differences, and I draw some lessons and policy implications. I will suggest that one could have learned even more if the authors had devoted some of their effort to comparing the recent global inflation episode to earlier experiences, and if they had related their empirical specification and results to predictions of models with search frictions.
本讨论对 Mai Chi Dao、Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas、Daniel Leigh 和 Prachi Mishra 所撰写的雄心勃勃的论文《理解 2020 年以来通货膨胀的国际涨落》进行了评论。DGLM 论文的优势显而易见。无论是关于这一大批重要国家的通货膨胀经验的共性,还是关于它们的差异,都有很多值得学习的地方。我想说的是,如果作者们能将最近的全球通胀事件与之前的经验进行比较,如果他们能将其经验规格和结果与搜索摩擦模型的预测联系起来,我们就能学到更多东西。
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引用次数: 0
The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices 货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后:来自分类价格指数的证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103635
S. Borağan Aruoba, Thomas Drechsel
We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.
我们利用本地预测研究了货币政策如何影响个人消费支出价格指数(PCEPI)的子项。在货币政策收缩后,个人消费支出价格总指数的反应在三年多后明显转为负值。不同价格类别的反应时间和幅度存在明显差异,包括一些价格最初显示出正反应。我们讨论了研究结果的理论解释,并指出了未来理论研究的有用方向。我们还展示了如何对横截面估计值及其标准误差进行再分类,并使用 "看似不相关回归 "方法将不同价格之间的依赖性考虑在内。重新分类结果表明,支出行为的变化并没有加速通货膨胀对货币政策的长滞后反应。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know 通货膨胀:我们学到了什么和我们需要知道什么
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656
Jan Hatzius
We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.
Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 NBER conference on “Inflation in the Covid era and beyond”.
我们将讨论自科维德冲击以来,经济预测者在通货膨胀方面吸取的经验教训。首先,实物短缺(如汽车行业)会推高商品价格,其幅度远远超出大多数预测者的预期。其次,住房租赁市场的失衡会急剧加剧通胀并使其居高不下,尤其是在美国等用租金来估算自住住房成本的经济体。第三,与失业率或就业/人口比例相比,就业与工人之间的差距可以更好地衡量劳动力市场的平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes 关税战、失业和最高收入
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103616
Motivated by the 2018–19 global tariff war, we develop a multi-country trade model with occupational choice, heterogeneous firms, and unemployment. The model features a complete tariff pass-through and positive optimal tariffs addressing product and labor-market distortions. The quantitative analysis of the model with four countries/regions shows that raising tariffs unilaterally by a country increases welfare but also raises unemployment and top incomes in that country, whereas having the opposite impact on tariff-targeted countries. A global tariff war reduces every country’s welfare, unemployment, and top-income inequality, whereas moving from a worldwide tariff war to free trade raises every country’s welfare, unemployment, and top-income inequality.
在 2018-19 年全球关税战的激励下,我们建立了一个包含职业选择、异质企业和失业的多国贸易模型。该模型具有完全的关税传递和正向最优关税,可解决产品和劳动力市场扭曲问题。对模型中四个国家/地区的定量分析表明,一国单方面提高关税会增加福利,但也会提高该国的失业率和最高收入,而对关税目标国的影响则相反。全球关税战会降低每个国家的福利、失业率和最高收入不平等,而从全球关税战转向自由贸易则会提高每个国家的福利、失业率和最高收入不平等。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Monetary Economics
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