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Turbulent business cycles 动荡的商业周期
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103814
Ding Dong , Zheng Liu , Pengfei Wang
Firm-level evidence suggests that turbulence that reshuffles firms’ productivity rankings rises sharply in recessions. An increase in turbulence reallocates labor and capital from high- to low-productivity firms, reducing aggregate TFP and the stock market value of firms. A real business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions can generate the observed macroeconomic and reallocation effects of turbulence. In the model, increased turbulence makes high-productivity firms less likely to remain productive, reducing their expected equity values and tightening their borrowing constraints relative to low-productivity firms. This leads to a reallocation that reduces aggregate TFP. Unlike uncertainty, turbulence changes both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the firm productivity distribution, enabling a turbulence shock to generate a recession with synchronized declines in aggregate activities.
企业层面的证据表明，在经济衰退中，重新洗牌企业生产率排名的动荡会急剧上升。动荡的增加将劳动力和资本从高生产率企业重新分配到低生产率企业，降低了企业的总TFP和股票市场价值。具有异质企业和金融摩擦的真实商业周期模型可以产生观察到的宏观经济和再配置效应。在该模型中，增加的动荡使高生产率企业不太可能保持生产率，从而降低了它们的预期股本价值，并收紧了它们相对于低生产率企业的借贷约束。这导致了再分配，从而降低了总TFP。与不确定性不同，动荡改变了企业生产率分布的条件均值和条件方差，从而使动荡冲击产生经济衰退，同时导致总体活动同步下降。
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引用次数: 0
The underemployment trap 就业不足陷阱
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103633
Jie Duan , Paul Jackson
Many college graduates are underemployed, i.e., work in occupations that do not require a college degree. We document that underemployed workers are less likely to transition to a college occupation the longer they are underemployed and that longer underemployment histories are associated with lower wages in college occupations. To explain these findings, we develop a directed search model with unobserved heterogeneity, occupation-specific human capital, and on the job search. Workers are uncertain about their suitability for college jobs and learn through search. Underemployment is generated by search and information frictions, as workers with a low expected job finding probability in college occupations self-select into underemployment. Once underemployed, workers’ college occupation-specific human capital decays. A quantitative decomposition shows that unobserved heterogeneity explains most of the duration dependence in underemployment.
许多大学毕业生就业不足，即从事不需要大学学位的职业。我们发现，就业不足的工人就业不足的时间越长，就越不可能过渡到大学职业，而且就业不足的时间越长，大学职业的工资就越低。为了解释这些发现，我们建立了一个具有未观察到的异质性、特定职业人力资本和求职的定向搜索模型。劳动者不确定自己是否适合大学工作，并通过求职学习。就业不足是由搜索和信息摩擦造成的，因为在大学生职业中预期求职概率较低的工人会自我选择就业不足。一旦就业不足，工人的大学职业特定人力资本就会衰减。定量分解显示，未观察到的异质性解释了就业不足的大部分持续时间依赖性。
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引用次数: 0
Tokenomics: Optimal monetary and fee policies 代币经济学：最优货币和收费政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103808
Urban Jermann , Haotian Xiang
We document properties of crypto monetary policies based on a large sample of tokens. We present a dynamic model to determine the optimal issuance and fee policies for issuers. Committing to low future money growth and fees increases profits, and the degree of commitment matters for equilibrium existence. A Ramsey issuer who maximizes profits, after the initial period, makes choices that maximize the utility value of all tokens. We present a model with probabilistic commitment, solve for the steady state in closed form, and show that empirically relevant long-run money growth rates align with very high levels of commitment.
我们基于大量代币样本来记录加密货币政策的属性。我们提出了一个动态模型来确定发行人的最佳发行和收费政策。承诺未来较低的货币增长和费用会增加利润，而承诺的程度对均衡的存在至关重要。在初始期之后，利润最大化的拉姆齐发行人做出的选择是使所有代币的效用价值最大化。我们提出了一个具有概率承诺的模型，以封闭形式求解稳态，并表明经验相关的长期货币增长率与非常高的承诺水平一致。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal monetary policy with uncertain private sector foresight 具有不确定私人部门远见的最优货币政策
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103826
Christopher Gust, Edward Herbst, David López-Salido
We model private-sector expectations in a finite-horizon-planning framework: households and firms have limited foresight when making spending, saving, and pricing decisions. In this setting, contrary to standard New Keynesian (NK) models, we show that an “inflation scare” problem can arise in which agents’ longer-run inflation expectations deviate persistently from a central bank’s inflation target. We characterize optimal time-consistent monetary policy when there is uncertainty about the planning horizons of private sector agents and a risk of inflation scares. We show how risk-management considerations modify the optimal “leaning-against-the-wind” principle in the NK literature with a novel, additional preemptive motive to avert inflation scares.
我们在有限视界规划框架中对私营部门的预期进行建模：家庭和企业在做出支出、储蓄和定价决策时，其远见是有限的。在这种情况下，与标准的新凯恩斯主义（NK）模型相反，我们表明，当经济主体的长期通胀预期持续偏离央行的通胀目标时，可能会出现“通胀恐慌”问题。我们认为，当私营部门主体的规划前景存在不确定性，且存在通胀恐慌风险时，最优的时间一致性货币政策是什么。我们展示了风险管理方面的考虑如何用一种新颖的、额外的先发制人的动机来修改朝鲜文献中最优的“逆风”原则，以避免通货膨胀恐慌。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs with incomplete identification: Re-evaluating the validity of monetary policy instruments 不完全识别的代理svar中的贝叶斯推理：货币政策工具有效性的再评估
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103813
Lam Nguyen
Instrument validity cannot be tested in a just-identified model, and it is not clear what conclusion to draw when instrument validity is rejected in an over-identified model. In practice, researchers tend to regard instruments as valid when they lead to sensible inferences. This paper develops a proxy structural vector autoregression with imperfect confidence in instrument validity, enabling researchers to incorporate and investigate those prior beliefs alongside other identifying information such as sign restrictions. The empirical application offers a new explanation to the observation in Stock and Watson (2012) that shocks predicted by different monetary policy instruments are correlated with oil and fiscal policy shocks, but not with each other.
不能在刚刚确定的模型中测试工具有效性，并且当在过度确定的模型中拒绝工具有效性时，不清楚得出什么结论。在实践中，研究人员倾向于认为工具是有效的，当他们导致合理的推论。本文开发了一种对工具效度具有不完全置信度的代理结构向量自回归，使研究人员能够将这些先验信念与其他识别信息（如符号限制）合并并研究。实证应用为Stock和Watson（2012）的观察提供了新的解释，即不同货币政策工具预测的冲击与石油和财政政策冲击相关，但彼此之间不相关。
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引用次数: 0
Skilled immigration frictions as a barrier for young firms 技术移民摩擦成为年轻公司的障碍
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103811
Federico Mandelman , Mishita Mehra , Hewei Shen
This paper examines the impact of immigration policy frictions on technology-intensive firms by age cohort. The firm-level empirical evidence shows that H-1B policy restrictions on skilled immigrants directly affect the survival of young firms in technology-intensive sectors. We develop a novel general equilibrium model with firm entry and exit that mimics the policy frictions in the H-1B program. The model matches the age distribution of firms in high-technology sectors and shows that immigration policy reforms that increase the entry of younger firms induce greater exit of older, less productive firms, thereby increasing efficiency.
本文从年龄层面考察了移民政策摩擦对技术密集型企业的影响。企业层面的经验证据表明，H-1B政策对技术移民的限制直接影响到技术密集型行业年轻企业的生存。我们开发了一个具有企业进入和退出的新型一般均衡模型，模拟了H-1B计划中的政策摩擦。该模型与高科技行业公司的年龄分布相匹配，并表明增加年轻公司进入的移民政策改革会导致更老的、生产率较低的公司退出，从而提高效率。
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引用次数: 0
A model of expenditure shocks 支出冲击模型
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103807
Jorge Miranda-Pinto , Daniel Murphy , Kieran James Walsh , Eric R. Young
We introduce a new quantitative model of household expenditure shocks to rationalize the common anecdote of a low-income and low-liquidity household that uses additional income to save (repay debt) rather than consume. Our model also rationalizes key features of the joint dynamics of household-level consumption and income, including our finding that consumption is volatile yet disconnected from income, especially for households experiencing episodes of high consumption. The key feature of our model is stochastic consumption thresholds that yield large utility costs if violated. The stochastic thresholds increase the welfare cost of income fluctuations by an order of magnitude.
我们引入了一个新的家庭支出冲击定量模型，以合理化低收入和低流动性家庭使用额外收入储蓄（偿还债务）而不是消费的常见轶事。我们的模型还合理化了家庭层面消费和收入联合动态的关键特征，包括我们的发现，消费是不稳定的，但与收入脱节，特别是对于经历高消费时期的家庭。我们模型的关键特征是随机消费阈值，如果违反，将产生巨大的效用成本。随机阈值使收入波动的福利成本增加了一个数量级。
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引用次数: 0
International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions 国际贸易和宏观经济动态与制裁
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103810
Fabio Ghironi , Daisoon Kim , Galip Kemal Ozhan
We develop a framework combining dynamic, intertemporal choices of general-equilibrium macro models with microfoundations of modern trade theory to study sanctions. In a two-country, two-sector setup, Home holds a comparative advantage in producing differentiated consumption goods via heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry, while Foreign in homogeneous intermediate goods from a fixed number of firms. Sanctions include trade bans and financial restrictions excluding particular Foreign agents from markets. In our model, sanctions reallocate resources across and within countries, affecting production, exchange rates, and welfare, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage. Focusing only on long-run outcomes, overlooking initial dynamics, inaccurately assesses welfare impacts. Sanctions weaken international comovement and fragment markets but leave business cycles intact.
我们开发了一个框架，将一般均衡宏观模型的动态跨期选择与现代贸易理论的微观基础相结合，以研究制裁。在两国两部门结构下，国内在通过内生进入的异质企业生产差异化消费品方面具有比较优势，而国外在通过固定数量的企业生产同质中间产品方面具有比较优势。制裁包括贸易禁令和金融限制，将特定的外国代理商排除在市场之外。在我们的模型中，制裁在国家之间和国家内部重新分配资源，影响生产、汇率和福利，当针对相对劣势部门时，福利损失更大。只关注长期结果，忽视最初的动力，会不准确地评估福利影响。制裁削弱了国际合作，使市场支离破碎，但商业周期却完好无损。
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引用次数: 0
What’s driving the decline in entrepreneurship? 是什么导致了创业的减少？
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103812
Nicholas Kozeniauskas
Why has there been a steady decline in entrepreneurship in the US in recent decades? To answer this question, I develop a general equilibrium occupation choice model and combine it with data on these choices. Skill-biased technical change can account for much of the decline in the relative entrepreneurship rate of more educated people, but cannot explain the decline in the aggregate level of entrepreneurship. The major factors in the decline in the share of people who are entrepreneurs, the firm entry rate, and the size of the entrepreneur sector are rising entry costs and outsized productivity gains by large non-entrepreneur firms.
为什么近几十年来美国的创业精神一直在稳步下降？为了回答这个问题，我开发了一个一般均衡职业选择模型，并将其与这些选择的数据结合起来。技能偏向的技术变革可以解释受教育程度较高的人相对创业率下降的大部分原因，但不能解释创业总水平下降的原因。企业家比例下降、企业进入率下降和企业家部门规模下降的主要因素是进入成本上升和大型非企业家企业的生产率大幅提高。
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引用次数: 0
Committed to flexible fiscal rules 致力于灵活的财政规则
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809
Christoph Grosse-Steffen , Laura Pagenhardt , Malte Rieth
We study the implications of fiscal rules for macroeconomic stabilization when countries are hit by adverse exogenous shocks. Exploiting the unpredictability of natural disasters, we document that economies with a fiscal rule absorb these shocks better than those without: the responses of GDP and private demand are significantly higher. This difference is coupled with more expansionary fiscal policy and hinges on fiscal space. We analyze the interaction of rule flexibility and rule tightness in a quantitative model of sovereign default that exerts strong market discipline on governments conditional on disaster shocks. The results show potential welfare gains and a countercyclical fiscal response to adverse disaster shocks in the presence of tight rules and escape clauses.
我们研究了当国家受到不利的外生冲击时，财政规则对宏观经济稳定的影响。利用自然灾害的不可预测性，我们证明有财政规则的经济体比没有财政规则的经济体更能吸收这些冲击：GDP和私人需求的反应要高得多。这种差异伴随着更具扩张性的财政政策，并取决于财政空间。我们在主权违约的定量模型中分析了规则灵活性和规则严密性的相互作用，该模型在灾难冲击的条件下对政府施加了强大的市场纪律。结果显示，在存在严格规则和免责条款的情况下，潜在的福利收益和反周期的财政应对不利的灾害冲击。
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引用次数: 0
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