Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

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Merger guidelines for the labor market 劳动力市场的合并指南

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103785

David Berger , Thomas Hasenzagl , Kyle Herkenhoff , Simon Mongey , Eric A. Posner

What are the welfare, wage, and output implications of applying merger review guidelines to the labor market? To answer this question, we develop a theory of multi-plant ownership and labor market monopsony. We estimate the model using U.S. Census data and demonstrate the model’s ability to replicate empirically documented paths of employment and wages following mergers. We then simulate a representative set of U.S. mergers in order to evaluate merger review thresholds. Assuming mergers generate efficiency gains of 5 percent, our simulations yield welfare losses under the enforcement of the more lenient 2010 merger guidelines and welfare gains under enforcement of the more stringent 2023 and 1982 merger guidelines. Lastly, we estimate the aggregate effects of allowed mergers on output and labor’s share of income under each set of merger guidelines.

将合并审查准则应用于劳动力市场对福利、工资和产出的影响是什么？为了回答这个问题，我们发展了一个多工厂所有制和劳动力市场垄断的理论。我们使用美国人口普查数据来估计模型，并证明该模型能够复制合并后就业和工资的经验记录路径。然后，我们模拟了一组具有代表性的美国合并，以评估合并审查阈值。假设合并产生5%的效率收益，我们的模拟在执行更宽松的2010年合并指导方针下产生福利损失，在执行更严格的2023年和1982年合并指导方针下产生福利收益。最后，我们估计了在每组合并准则下允许合并对产出和劳动收入份额的总体影响。

引用次数: 0

Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations 助推预期：汽油价格对通胀预期的因果影响

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797

Yoon Joo Jo, Ben Klopack

We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shaping inflation expectations than previously suggested in the literature. We also show experimental evidence that informing households about the tax reduction leads them to adjust their inflation expectations downward. However, we do not find evidence that temporary gas tax suspensions had a stimulative effect on consumption. These findings underscore the potential for alternative policy levers to influence household beliefs and behavior.

我们调查了暂时暂停征收州一级汽油税对通胀预期的影响。使用差异中的差异策略，我们表明，在降低汽油税的州，家庭降低了他们的通胀预期，但政策的影响取决于减税的多少被转嫁到价格上。我们为天然气价格与家庭通胀预期之间的联系提供了新的因果证据，并证明天然气价格在塑造通胀预期方面发挥的作用比文献中先前提出的更为重要。我们还展示了实验证据，即告知家庭减税会导致他们下调通胀预期。然而，我们没有发现证据表明暂时暂停征收汽油税对消费有刺激作用。这些发现强调了其他政策杠杆影响家庭信仰和行为的潜力。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness 主权CoCos和债务减免

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103784

Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Francisco Roch

We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government’s borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after adverse shocks. We also study CoCos that, in addition to the payment suspension, stipulate debt forgiveness after adverse shocks. In contrast with no-forgiveness CoCos, debt-forgiveness CoCos reduce debt levels after adverse shocks, thereby reducing default probabilities. Debt-forgiveness CoCos also yield larger welfare gains.

我们研究了一个主权违约模型，在该模型中，政府发行CoCos（或有可转换债券），规定在全球风险溢价（以及政府借贷成本）大幅增加时暂停偿债。我们发现，CoCos允许政府平滑风险溢价冲击对消费的影响，但它们增加了违约频率。通过暂停债务支付，CoCos意味着更高的债务水平，从而在不利冲击后更高的违约概率。我们还研究了CoCos，除了暂停付款外，还规定了不利冲击后的债务减免。与不可减免CoCos相比，债务减免CoCos降低了不利冲击后的债务水平，从而降低了违约概率。债务减免CoCos还能产生更大的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves （重新）连接通货膨胀和劳动力市场：两条曲线的故事

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796

Hie Joo Ahn, Jeremy B. Rudd

We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”

我们提出了一个经验框架，在这个框架中，对工人再分配、总活动和劳动力供给的冲击驱动劳动力市场和通货膨胀的联合动态，再分配冲击有两种形式，取决于它们是由辞职还是由失业引起的。我们发现，这些影响贝弗里奇曲线的结构性冲击对通胀有不同的影响。我们的模型根据每次冲击的贡献完全分解了经验贝弗里奇曲线的移位或沿经验贝弗里奇曲线的移位，并且还允许我们估计与每次冲击相关的菲利普斯相关性；贝弗里奇和菲利普斯的相关性随着时间的推移而变化，这取决于在给定时期内哪种类型的结构性冲击占主导地位。我们发现，伴随着失业的再分配冲击是2019冠状病毒病大流行期间劳动力市场动态和菲利普斯曲线趋陡的关键来源，也是大流行后“软着陆”的重要驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Optimal normalization policy under behavioral expectations 行为预期下的最优规范化策略

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103786

Alexandre Carrier , Kostas Mavromatis

We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents’ expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing role for balance sheet management arises when interest rate fluctuations become costly. Finally, our analysis reveals that expectations significantly influence the optimal interest rate trajectory, whereas their impact on the optimal balance sheet path is comparatively minimal.

我们在一个框架中描述了最优正常化政策，在这个框架中，代理人的期望可能偏离理性预期基准，中央银行面临成本推动冲击。当利率波动没有成本时，我们的研究结果表明，无论预期形成过程如何，利率都是管理通胀压力的主要工具，始终优于资产负债表调整。然而，在去锚定预期下，当利率波动代价高昂时，资产负债表管理的作用就会越来越大。最后，我们的分析表明，预期显著影响最优利率轨迹，而它们对最优资产负债表路径的影响相对较小。

引用次数: 0

Negative nominal interest rates and monetary policy 负名义利率与货币政策

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103799

Duhyeong Kim

How much can central banks reduce nominal interest rates? Can the lower bound be controlled by monetary policy? If so, should central banks reduce it to implement negative interest rates? I construct a model with multiple means of payment where the costs of holding paper currency effectively reduce its rate of return, creating a negative effective lower bound on interest rates. I find that central banks can reduce this lower bound with a non-par exchange rate between currency and bank reserves, but doing so raises currency-holding costs for individuals, leading to welfare losses. Moreover, implementing a negative rate by reducing the lower bound has no benefits because this policy combination lowers both the rate of return on currency and the interest rate on financial assets, leaving relative interest rates unchanged.

央行能将名义利率降低多少？利率下限能被货币政策控制吗？如果是这样，央行是否应该降低利率以实施负利率？我构建了一个包含多种支付手段的模型，在这个模型中，持有纸币的成本有效地降低了它的回报率，从而产生了一个负的有效利率下限。我发现，央行可以通过货币与银行储备之间的非平价汇率来降低这一下限，但这样做会增加个人持有货币的成本，从而导致福利损失。此外，通过降低利率下限来实施负利率没有任何好处，因为这种政策组合会降低货币回报率和金融资产利率，使相对利率保持不变。

引用次数: 0

Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier 分解货币政策乘数

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103783

Piergiorgio Alessandri , Òscar Jordà , Fabrizio Venditti

Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the U.S. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary contraction than to a monetary loosening. At a one year horizon, the ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy — defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads — is zero for a monetary loosening, -2 for a monetary contraction, and -4 for a monetary contraction that takes place under strained credit market conditions. These results have important policy implications: monetary policy may become inadvertently tight in times of financial distress.

在美国，金融市场在造成货币政策传导不对称方面发挥着重要作用。信贷息差只会对利率的意外上升做出调整，导致产出和价格更多地对货币紧缩做出反应，而不是对货币宽松做出反应。在一年的期限内，货币政策的“金融乘数”——定义为就业和信贷息差的累积反应之间的比率——在货币宽松时为零，在货币紧缩时为-2，在信贷市场紧张条件下发生的货币紧缩时为-4。这些结果具有重要的政策含义：在金融危机时期，货币政策可能会在不经意间变得紧缩。

引用次数: 0

Elasticity of substitution between robots and workers: Theory and evidence from Japanese robot price data 机器人与工人之间的替代弹性：来自日本机器人价格数据的理论与证据

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103782

Daisuke Adachi

This paper examines the wage effects of the increased use of industrial robots, focusing on their role in specific tasks and international trade. I construct a novel dataset by tracking shocks to the cost of acquiring robots from Japan, termed the Japan Robot Shock (JRS), and analyze these shocks across different occupations that have adopted robots. A general equilibrium model incorporating robot automation in a large open economy is developed, and a model-implied optimal instrumental variable of the JRS is constructed to address the identification challenges posed by the correlation between automation shocks and the JRS. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution (EoS) between robots and labor is heterogeneous across occupations, reaching up to 3 in production and material moving occupations, which is significantly higher than the EoS between other capital goods and labor. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policy to help workers adapt and mitigate potential wage pressures.

本文考察了工业机器人使用增加对工资的影响，重点关注它们在特定任务和国际贸易中的作用。我通过跟踪从日本购买机器人成本的冲击，构建了一个新的数据集，称为日本机器人冲击（JRS），并分析了采用机器人的不同职业的这些冲击。建立了大型开放经济中包含机器人自动化的一般均衡模型，并构建了模型隐含的JRS最优工具变量，以解决自动化冲击与JRS之间的相关性带来的识别挑战。研究发现，机器人与劳动力之间的替代弹性（EoS）在不同职业之间存在异质性，在生产和物资运输职业中达到3，显著高于其他资本品与劳动力之间的替代弹性。这些发现强调了有针对性的政策对帮助工人适应和减轻潜在的工资压力的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Wealth taxation and life expectancy 财富税和预期寿命

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103781

Antonio Andrés Bellofatto

This paper studies the role of wealth taxes in providing insurance against lifespan risk through the lens of a dynamic Mirrlees model with altruism. I derive novel formulas linking optimal taxes on savings and bequests to the degree of annuity market imperfections at the optimum. In the presence of positive correlation between productivity and life expectancy, optimal annuity markups are positive in expectation. This creates a motive not only for taxing savings but also for subsidizing bequests. When calibrating the model, I find that the forces of differential longevity lead to optimal wealth taxes commensurate with prevailing wealth tax rates in developed countries. Relative to the US status quo, optimal policies provide work incentives by increasing welfare of the short-lived at the bottom of the skill distribution. This channel generates significant welfare gains. Replacing the optimal annuity markup by a nonlinear history-independent approximation generates small efficiency losses.

本文通过一个具有利他主义的动态莫里斯模型，研究了财富税在提供针对寿命风险的保险中的作用。我推导出新颖的公式，将储蓄和遗赠的最优税收与年金市场最优不完善程度联系起来。在生产率与预期寿命存在正相关关系的情况下，最优年金加价在期望上是正的。这不仅产生了对储蓄征税的动机，也产生了补贴遗赠的动机。在校准模型时，我发现寿命差异的力量导致了与发达国家现行财富税率相称的最优财富税。相对于美国的现状，最优政策通过增加技能分配底层短命者的福利，提供工作激励。这一渠道产生了显著的福利收益。用与历史无关的非线性近似代替最优年金加价产生很小的效率损失。

引用次数: 0

Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices 政策转型风险、碳溢价和资产价格

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780

Christoph Hambel , Frederick van der Ploeg

We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the temperature cap, and thus accelerate the green transition. Increased transition risk leads to more precautionary saving and falls in the risk-free rate. We offer extensions to deal with physical risks (temperature-related risk of climate disasters and climate tipping), technology transition risk, and more realistic policy tipping with endogenous transition probabilities.

我们使用全球两部门气候和经济宏观金融模型分析了政策转型风险对资产定价和绿色转型的影响。政策转型风险来自三种政策状态之间的概率变化：无碳定价、适度定价和雄心勃勃的碳定价。我们发现，政策转型风险会导致碳溢价（即棕色资产的预期回报高于绿色资产），特别是在经济仍然相当碳密集型且接近温度上限的情况下，从而加速绿色转型。过渡风险增加导致预防性储蓄增加，无风险利率下降。我们提供了扩展来处理物理风险（气候灾害和气候引爆的温度相关风险），技术转型风险，以及更现实的具有内生转移概率的政策引爆。

引用次数: 0

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