Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

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The rise of AI pricing: Trends, driving forces, and implications for firm performance 人工智能定价的兴起：趋势、驱动力和对公司业绩的影响

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103875

Jonathan J. Adams , Min Fang , Zheng Liu , Yajie Wang

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered pricing and study its implications for firm performance, both on average and in response to monetary policy shocks. We use the online job postings data from Lightcast to measure the adoption of AI pricing. We infer that a firm is adopting AI pricing if it posts a job that requires AI-related skills and contains the keyword “pricing.” At the aggregate level, the share of AI pricing jobs in all pricing jobs has increased more than tenfold since 2010. The rise of AI pricing jobs has been broad-based, spreading across more industries than other types of AI jobs. At the firm level, larger and more productive firms are more likely to adopt AI pricing. Firms that adopted AI pricing experienced faster growth in sales, employment, assets, and markups, and their stock returns are also more responsive to high-frequency monetary policy surprises than non-adopters. We show that these empirical observations can be rationalized by a simple model where a monopolist firm with incomplete information about its demand function invests in AI pricing to acquire information.

我们记录了人工智能（AI）定价的时间序列趋势和横截面分布的关键风格化事实，并研究了其对公司业绩的影响，包括平均水平和应对货币政策冲击的影响。我们使用Lightcast的在线招聘数据来衡量人工智能定价的采用情况。我们推断，如果一家公司发布了一个需要人工智能相关技能的职位，并且包含关键词“定价”，那么它就采用了人工智能定价。总体而言，自2010年以来，人工智能定价工作在所有定价工作中所占的比例增长了10倍以上。与其他类型的人工智能工作相比，人工智能定价工作的兴起是广泛的，涉及的行业更多。在企业层面，规模更大、生产率更高的企业更有可能采用人工智能定价。采用人工智能定价的公司在销售、就业、资产和加价方面的增长更快，而且它们的股票回报对高频货币政策意外的反应也比未采用人工智能定价的公司更敏感。我们表明，这些经验观察可以通过一个简单的模型来合理化，在这个模型中，一个关于其需求函数的不完全信息的垄断企业投资于人工智能定价来获取信息。

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Multinational production and global shock propagation during the great recession 大衰退期间的跨国生产和全球冲击传播

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103879

Haishi Li

Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession (2008–2009). This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries and associated with steeper GDP declines in MP-intensive countries. MNEs amplified the trade collapse because their overall sales fell while they maintained higher trade intensity than domestic firms. In a calibrated quantitative model with flexible vertical and horizontal MNE structures, international trade, and input–output linkages, I show that productivity shocks, which disproportionately affected trade-intensive MNEs, contributed more to the trade collapse than demand shocks. MNEs’ productivity shocks accounted for over half of the global GDP decline during the Great Recession. MP linkages significantly amplified the transmission of headquarters-country productivity shocks to global GDP, MP, and trade.

利用全球跨国生产（MP）的新数据库，我证明了在大衰退（2008-2009）期间，世界跨国企业（MNE）的销售额和贸易一样急剧下降。这种崩溃是由几个主要总部国家的跨国公司推动的，并与mp密集型国家的GDP急剧下降有关。跨国公司扩大了贸易崩溃，因为它们的整体销售额下降，而它们的贸易强度却高于国内公司。在一个具有灵活的纵向和横向跨国公司结构、国际贸易和投入产出联系的校准定量模型中，我表明生产率冲击对贸易密集型跨国公司的影响比需求冲击对贸易崩溃的贡献更大。在大衰退期间，跨国公司的生产率冲击占全球GDP下降的一半以上。生产率联系显著放大了总部所在国生产率冲击对全球GDP、生产率和贸易的影响。

引用次数: 0

Oil price fluctuations, US banks, and macroprudential policy 油价波动、美国银行和宏观审慎政策

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103848

Paolo Gelain , Marco Lorusso

Using US micro-level data on banks, we document a negative effect of high oil prices on US banks’ balance sheets, more negative for highly leveraged banks. We set and estimate a general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors that rationalizes those findings through the financial accelerator mechanism. This mechanism amplifies the effect of oil price shocks, making them non-negligible drivers of the dynamics of US banks’ intermediation activity and of the US real economy. Macroprudential policy, in the form of a countercyclical capital buffer, can meaningfully address oil price fluctuations and reduce the volatility they cause in the US economy.

利用美国银行的微观数据，我们记录了高油价对美国银行资产负债表的负面影响，对高杠杆银行的负面影响更大。我们设置并估计了银行和石油部门的一般均衡模型，该模型通过金融加速器机制使这些发现合理化。这一机制放大了油价冲击的影响，使其成为美国银行中介活动和美国实体经济动态的不可忽视的驱动力。以逆周期资本缓冲形式出现的宏观审慎政策，可以有效地应对油价波动，并减少油价波动给美国经济带来的波动。

引用次数: 0

Staggered contracts and unemployment during recessions 经济衰退期间交错的合同和失业

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103830

Effrosyni Adamopoulou , Luis Díez-Catalán , Ernesto Villanueva

We analyze the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) due to collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) on wage and employment dynamics during two major recessions in Spain: the low-inflation recession of 2009, which included both short- and long-term CBAs, and the high-inflation recession of 1993, characterized by short-term CBAs. By exploiting variation in the timing of CBA renewals, we find that CBAs signed before recessions result in 1pp higher negotiated wage growth than those signed afterward. We leverage balance sheet data on firms and Social Security data on workers to document that CBA-induced DNWR accounted for 12% of job losses in 2009 due to higher wage growth, mainly among workers near the minimum wage floors. These workers experienced persistent non-employment, particularly if they were covered by long-term CBAs, and reallocation was limited. We find no real impacts in 1993, thus identifying conditions under which CBA-induced DNWR can amplify aggregate shocks.

我们分析了西班牙两次主要衰退期间集体谈判协议（cba）导致名义工资刚性下降（DNWR）对工资和就业动态的影响：2009年低通胀衰退（包括短期和长期cba）和1993年高通胀衰退（以短期cba为特征）。通过利用CBA续约时间的变化，我们发现，在经济衰退之前签署的CBA比在经济衰退之后签署的CBA谈判工资增长高出1个百分点。我们利用企业的资产负债表数据和工人的社会保障数据证明，由于工资增长较高，2009年由cba引起的DNWR占失业人数的12%，主要是在接近最低工资底线的工人中。这些工人经历了持续的失业，特别是如果他们被长期cba覆盖，重新分配是有限的。我们没有发现1993年的实际影响，从而确定了cba诱发的DNWR可以放大总冲击的条件。

引用次数: 0

Ex ante heterogeneity, separations, and labor market dynamics 事前异质性、离职和劳动力市场动态

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103845

César Barreto , Christian Merkl

Our paper documents the importance of ex ante worker heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool over the business cycle. In recessions, the unemployment pool shifts toward workers with higher wages in their previous jobs. Based on administrative data for Germany and two-way worker and firm wage fixed effects, we show that this shift is mainly connected to worker heterogeneity, not to firm heterogeneity. We calibrate a search and matching model with ex ante worker heterogeneity to the estimated relative residual wage dispersion across worker fixed-effect groups. We show that a lower idiosyncratic match-specific shock dispersion for high-wage workers is key for the larger relative fluctuations of their separation rate as well as for the positive comovement between prior wages and fixed effects of unemployed workers with aggregate unemployment. We argue that firm-based explanations, such as cyclical financial frictions, are unlikely to be key drivers for the documented empirical patterns.

我们的论文记录了事前工人异质性对劳动力市场动态和商业周期中失业人口构成的重要性。在经济衰退中，失业人群转向了以前工作中工资较高的工人。基于德国的行政数据和工人与企业工资的双向固定效应，我们发现这种转变主要与工人的异质性有关，而与企业的异质性无关。我们将事前工人异质性的搜索和匹配模型校准为估计的工人固定效应组之间的相对剩余工资分散。我们发现，对于高工资工人来说，较低的特殊匹配特异性冲击离散度是他们离职率相对波动较大的关键，也是失业工人先前工资和固定效应与总失业之间正相关的关键。我们认为，基于企业的解释，如周期性金融摩擦，不太可能是记录的经验模式的关键驱动因素。

引用次数: 0

Aggregate demand externality and self-fulfilling default cycles 总需求外部性和自我实现的违约周期

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103827

Jess Benhabib , Feng Dong , Pengfei Wang , Zhenyang Xu

Recurrent clustered episodes of corporate default are a long-standing puzzle that standard models driven by observable fundamentals struggle to explain. We develop a general equilibrium model where demand externality generates such default cycles endogenously through a self-fulfilling mechanism. In our framework, a decline in aggregate output reduces individual firm revenues and values, raising default risk. The subsequent exit of defaulting firms further depresses aggregate output, creating a positive feedback loop and pessimistic expectations about defaults can become self-fulfilling. This mechanism generates multiple equilibria and features endogenous, sentiment-driven default cycles. A global dynamic analysis using Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation reveals a rich set of dynamics, including periodic orbits, that are overlooked by standard local analysis. Our framework thus provides a microfounded explanation for business cycle patterns driven by internal economic forces, as emphasized by the empirical literature of endogenous business cycles.

反复出现的企业违约集群式事件是一个长期存在的难题，由可观察到的基本面驱动的标准模型难以解释。我们建立了一个一般均衡模型，其中需求外部性通过自我实现机制内生地产生这种违约周期。在我们的框架中，总产出的下降会减少单个企业的收入和价值，从而增加违约风险。随后违约企业的退出进一步压低了总产出，形成了一个正反馈循环，对违约的悲观预期可能会自我实现。这种机制产生了多重平衡，并具有内生的、情绪驱动的违约周期。使用Bogdanov-Takens分岔的全局动力学分析揭示了一组丰富的动力学，包括周期轨道，这些动力学被标准的局部分析所忽略。因此，我们的框架为内部经济力量驱动的商业周期模式提供了微观解释，正如内生商业周期的实证文献所强调的那样。

引用次数: 0

Long-lag VARs

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103831

Ferre De Graeve , Andreas Westermark

Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions, (S)VARs, to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag lengths imply a poor approximation to important data-generating processes (e.g. DSGE models). Empirically, short lag length is deemed necessary as increased parametrization induces excessive uncertainty. The paper shows that this argument is incomplete. Longer lag length simultaneously reduces misspecification, which in turn reduces variance. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the trivial solution to the critique actually works. For data generated by frontier DSGE models long-lag VARs are feasible, reduce bias and variance, and have better mean-squared error. Long-lag VARs are also viable in common macroeconomic data and significantly change structural conclusions about the impact of technology and monetary policy shocks on the economy.

宏观经济研究经常依靠结构向量自回归(S) var来揭示经验规律。批评者认为这种方法由于滞后截断而出错：较短的滞后长度意味着对重要数据生成过程（例如DSGE模型）的近似值较差。根据经验，短滞后长度被认为是必要的，因为增加的参数化会导致过度的不确定性。本文表明，这一论点是不完整的。较长的滞后长度同时减少了错误规范，从而减少了方差。与传统智慧相反，对批评的琐碎解决方案实际上是有效的。对于前沿DSGE模型生成的数据，长滞后var是可行的，可以减小偏倚和方差，具有较好的均方误差。长期滞后var在共同宏观经济数据中也是可行的，并显著改变了关于技术和货币政策冲击对经济影响的结构性结论。

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic effects of excess savings 过度储蓄的宏观经济效应

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103847

Bence Bardóczy, Jae Sim, Andreas Tischbirek

We study how excess savings affect consumption and propagate through the macroeconomy, which permits us to evaluate the contribution of excess savings to post-pandemic inflation in the U.S. In partial equilibrium, the aggregate spending response depends on the initial distribution of excess savings and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume. In general equilibrium, canonical RANK, TANK, and HANK models make markedly different predictions about the macroeconomic consequences of excess savings even if household wealth follows nearly identical paths. A quantitative HANK model matches the decumulation of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model attributes about a third of the trough-to-peak change in inflation to demand fueled by excess savings.

我们研究了过剩储蓄如何影响消费并通过宏观经济传播，这使我们能够评估过剩储蓄对美国大流行后通货膨胀的贡献。在部分均衡中，总支出的反应取决于过剩储蓄的初始分布和边际消费倾向的横截面异质性。在一般均衡中，即使家庭财富遵循几乎相同的路径，规范的RANK、TANK和HANK模型对过度储蓄的宏观经济后果做出了明显不同的预测。定量HANK模型与COVID-19大流行期间积累的过剩储蓄在整个收入分配中的累积相匹配。该模型将通胀从低谷到顶峰的变化中，约三分之一归因于过度储蓄推动的需求。

引用次数: 0

Inflation-stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy rules at and away from the lower bound 稳定通胀的货币和财政政策在下限上下浮动

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103857

Lucas Arden , Sebastian Hauptmeier , Christophe Kamps

We examine how fiscal policy can support monetary policy when nominal interest rates face an occasionally binding lower bound constraint. Within the conventional framework of active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy, the optimized fiscal rule features a strong response to inflation deviations from the central bank’s target. The inflation-stabilizing fiscal rule significantly reduces the deflationary bias and welfare costs associated with the lower bound constraint while maintaining debt sustainability. Counterfactual analysis for the U.S. shows that implementing the optimized fiscal rule during the pre-pandemic low-inflation period would have provided systematic support to monetary policy, lifting inflation closer to target when rates were at the lower bound and enabling an earlier rate lift-off.

我们研究了当名义利率面临偶尔具有约束力的下限约束时，财政政策如何支持货币政策。在传统的积极货币政策和被动财政政策框架下，优化后的财政规则对通胀偏离央行目标的反应强烈。稳定通胀的财政规则在保持债务可持续性的同时，显著降低了与下限约束相关的通缩倾向和福利成本。对美国的反事实分析表明，在大流行前的低通胀时期实施优化的财政规则，将为货币政策提供系统性支持，在利率处于较低区间时将通胀推至更接近目标的水平，并使加息更早。

引用次数: 0

Stock market participation and macro-financial trends 股市参与与宏观金融走势

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103846

Francesco Saverio Gaudio

The U.S. stock market participation rate has risen substantially since the 1980s. This paper studies the macro-financial implications of such structural change in a production-based asset-pricing model with external habits, which make investors’ effective risk aversion time-varying and decreasing with consumption. In this setup, higher participation generates a fall in the risk-free rate and an increase in the equity premium, consistent with recent U.S. trends. These novel results stem from a decline in the average participant’s risk tolerance, due to the entry of lower-consumption households relative to incumbents. Micro-level evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey supports the main model mechanism.

自上世纪80年代以来，美国股市参与率大幅上升。本文在具有外部习惯的基于生产的资产定价模型中研究了这种结构变化的宏观金融含义，这种结构变化使投资者的有效风险厌恶随消费而时变并递减。在这种情况下，更高的参与率会导致无风险利率下降，股票溢价上升，这与美国近期的趋势一致。这些新颖的结果源于平均参与者风险承受能力的下降，这是由于相对于现有的低消费家庭的进入。来自美国消费者支出调查的微观证据支持了主要模型机制。

引用次数: 0

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