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The macroeconomic effects of excess savings 过度储蓄的宏观经济效应
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103847
Bence Bardóczy, Jae Sim, Andreas Tischbirek
We study how excess savings affect consumption and propagate through the macroeconomy, which permits us to evaluate the contribution of excess savings to post-pandemic inflation in the U.S. In partial equilibrium, the aggregate spending response depends on the initial distribution of excess savings and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume. In general equilibrium, canonical RANK, TANK, and HANK models make markedly different predictions about the macroeconomic consequences of excess savings even if household wealth follows nearly identical paths. A quantitative HANK model matches the decumulation of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model attributes about a third of the trough-to-peak change in inflation to demand fueled by excess savings.
我们研究了过剩储蓄如何影响消费并通过宏观经济传播,这使我们能够评估过剩储蓄对美国大流行后通货膨胀的贡献。在部分均衡中,总支出的反应取决于过剩储蓄的初始分布和边际消费倾向的横截面异质性。在一般均衡中,即使家庭财富遵循几乎相同的路径,规范的RANK、TANK和HANK模型对过度储蓄的宏观经济后果做出了明显不同的预测。定量HANK模型与COVID-19大流行期间积累的过剩储蓄在整个收入分配中的累积相匹配。该模型将通胀从低谷到顶峰的变化中,约三分之一归因于过度储蓄推动的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Stock market participation and macro-financial trends 股市参与与宏观金融走势
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103846
Francesco Saverio Gaudio
The U.S. stock market participation rate has risen substantially since the 1980s. This paper studies the macro-financial implications of such structural change in a production-based asset-pricing model with external habits, which make investors’ effective risk aversion time-varying and decreasing with consumption. In this setup, higher participation generates a fall in the risk-free rate and an increase in the equity premium, consistent with recent U.S. trends. These novel results stem from a decline in the average participant’s risk tolerance, due to the entry of lower-consumption households relative to incumbents. Micro-level evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey supports the main model mechanism.
自上世纪80年代以来,美国股市参与率大幅上升。本文在具有外部习惯的基于生产的资产定价模型中研究了这种结构变化的宏观金融含义,这种结构变化使投资者的有效风险厌恶随消费而时变并递减。在这种情况下,更高的参与率会导致无风险利率下降,股票溢价上升,这与美国近期的趋势一致。这些新颖的结果源于平均参与者风险承受能力的下降,这是由于相对于现有的低消费家庭的进入。来自美国消费者支出调查的微观证据支持了主要模型机制。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the forecasts of others 重新审视别人的预测
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103844
Ryan Chahrour , Kyle Jurado
In macroeconomic models with dispersed information, agents have an incentive to learn from endogenous variables, which themselves depend on the forecasts of others. This paper revisits the model of Townsend (1983) to characterize how this mechanism affects equilibrium dynamics. The first part of the paper simplifies, revises, and extends past results about situations when prices are fully revealing. The second part shows that full revelation does not occur in the original model and proves that the equilibrium state vector is infinite-dimensional. It also provides a new numerical solution procedure for such cases, which operates entirely in the frequency domain.
在具有分散信息的宏观经济模型中,主体有从内生变量中学习的动机,内生变量本身依赖于他人的预测。本文回顾了Townsend(1983)的模型,以描述这种机制如何影响平衡动力学。本文的第一部分简化、修正和扩展了过去关于价格完全揭示情况的结果。第二部分证明了在原模型中不存在完全启示,并证明了平衡状态向量是无限维的。本文还提供了一种完全在频域中工作的新的数值求解方法。
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引用次数: 0
Ex ante heterogeneity, separations, and labor market dynamics 事前异质性、离职和劳动力市场动态
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103845
César Barreto , Christian Merkl
Our paper documents the importance of ex ante worker heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool over the business cycle. In recessions, the unemployment pool shifts toward workers with higher wages in their previous jobs. Based on administrative data for Germany and two-way worker and firm wage fixed effects, we show that this shift is mainly connected to worker heterogeneity, not to firm heterogeneity. We calibrate a search and matching model with ex ante worker heterogeneity to the estimated relative residual wage dispersion across worker fixed-effect groups. We show that a lower idiosyncratic match-specific shock dispersion for high-wage workers is key for the larger relative fluctuations of their separation rate as well as for the positive comovement between prior wages and fixed effects of unemployed workers with aggregate unemployment. We argue that firm-based explanations, such as cyclical financial frictions, are unlikely to be key drivers for the documented empirical patterns.
我们的论文记录了事前工人异质性对劳动力市场动态和商业周期中失业人口构成的重要性。在经济衰退中,失业人群转向了以前工作中工资较高的工人。基于德国的行政数据和工人与企业工资的双向固定效应,我们发现这种转变主要与工人的异质性有关,而与企业的异质性无关。我们将事前工人异质性的搜索和匹配模型校准为估计的工人固定效应组之间的相对剩余工资分散。我们发现,对于高工资工人来说,较低的特殊匹配特异性冲击离散度是他们离职率相对波动较大的关键,也是失业工人先前工资和固定效应与总失业之间正相关的关键。我们认为,基于企业的解释,如周期性金融摩擦,不太可能是记录的经验模式的关键驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Long-lag VARs
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103831
Ferre De Graeve , Andreas Westermark
Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions, (S)VARs, to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag lengths imply a poor approximation to important data-generating processes (e.g. DSGE models). Empirically, short lag length is deemed necessary as increased parametrization induces excessive uncertainty. The paper shows that this argument is incomplete. Longer lag length simultaneously reduces misspecification, which in turn reduces variance. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the trivial solution to the critique actually works. For data generated by frontier DSGE models long-lag VARs are feasible, reduce bias and variance, and have better mean-squared error. Long-lag VARs are also viable in common macroeconomic data and significantly change structural conclusions about the impact of technology and monetary policy shocks on the economy.
宏观经济研究经常依靠结构向量自回归(S) var来揭示经验规律。批评者认为这种方法由于滞后截断而出错:较短的滞后长度意味着对重要数据生成过程(例如DSGE模型)的近似值较差。根据经验,短滞后长度被认为是必要的,因为增加的参数化会导致过度的不确定性。本文表明,这一论点是不完整的。较长的滞后长度同时减少了错误规范,从而减少了方差。与传统智慧相反,对批评的琐碎解决方案实际上是有效的。对于前沿DSGE模型生成的数据,长滞后var是可行的,可以减小偏倚和方差,具有较好的均方误差。长期滞后var在共同宏观经济数据中也是可行的,并显著改变了关于技术和货币政策冲击对经济影响的结构性结论。
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引用次数: 0
Dispersed information, nominal rigidities and monetary business cycles: A Hayekian perspective 分散信息、名义刚性和货币商业周期:哈耶克的观点
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103843
Christian Hellwig , Venky Venkateswaran
We study the propagation of nominal shocks in a dispersed information economy where firms learn from and respond to information generated by their activities in product and factor markets. We show that imperfect information on its own has no effect on equilibrium outcomes, when firms have the flexibility to adjust prices and output instantaneously to changes in their market conditions, an outcome that we term the “Hayekian benchmark”. With sticky prices, however, this irrelevance obtains only if there are no strategic complementarities in pricing and aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks are equally persistent. With complementarities and/or differences in persistence, the interaction of nominal and informational frictions slows down price adjustment, amplifying real effects from nominal shocks (relative to a full information model with only nominal frictions). In a calibrated model, the amplification is most pronounced over the medium to long term. In the short run, market generated information leads to substantial aggregate price adjustment, even though firms may be completely unaware of changes in aggregate conditions.
我们研究了分散信息经济中名义冲击的传播,在这种经济中,企业从其在产品和要素市场上的活动产生的信息中学习并作出反应。我们表明,不完全信息本身对均衡结果没有影响,当企业具有根据市场条件的变化即时调整价格和产量的灵活性时,我们将这种结果称为“哈耶克基准”。然而,对于粘性价格,只有在定价方面没有战略互补性,而且总体冲击和特殊冲击同样持续的情况下,这种不相关性才会出现。由于互补性和/或持久性的差异,名义和信息摩擦的相互作用减缓了价格调整,放大了名义冲击的实际影响(相对于只有名义摩擦的完整信息模型)。在经过校准的模型中,这种放大在中长期内最为明显。在短期内,市场产生的信息导致大量的总价格调整,即使企业可能完全不知道总条件的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Overconfidence in private information explains biases in professional forecasts 对私人信息的过度自信解释了专业预测的偏差
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103839
Klaus Adam , Pei Kuang , Shihan Xie
We observe a rich set of public information signals available to participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and decompose individual forecast revisions into those due to public information and a remainder due to residual information. We find that SPF forecasters overreact to residual information at almost all forecast horizons and for almost all forecast variables. In addition, forecasts are overly anchored to prior beliefs for all variables at all forecast horizons. We show analytically that overconfidence in private information qualitatively generates both of these features. It also implies that forecast errors correlate positively with past forecast revisions at the consensus level, but negatively at the individual level, as documented previously in the literature. Estimating Bayesian updating models on SPF data, we show that overconfidence in private information also replicates the observed patterns quantitatively. All estimated models display strong and statistically significant overconfidence in private information.
我们观察到专业预报员调查(SPF)参与者可获得的丰富的公共信息信号,并将个别预测修正分解为由于公共信息和由于残差信息的剩余部分。我们发现,SPF预报员对几乎所有预测水平和几乎所有预测变量的残差信息反应过度。此外,对于所有预测范围内的所有变量,预测都过于依赖于先前的信念。我们分析表明,对私人信息的过度自信定性地产生了这两个特征。这也意味着预测误差在共识水平上与过去的预测修正呈正相关,但在个人水平上呈负相关,如先前文献所述。估计SPF数据上的贝叶斯更新模型,我们表明对私人信息的过度自信也定量地复制了观察到的模式。所有估计的模型都显示出对私人信息的强烈和统计上显著的过度自信。
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引用次数: 0
Staggered contracts and unemployment during recessions 经济衰退期间交错的合同和失业
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103830
Effrosyni Adamopoulou , Luis Díez-Catalán , Ernesto Villanueva
We analyze the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) due to collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) on wage and employment dynamics during two major recessions in Spain: the low-inflation recession of 2009, which included both short- and long-term CBAs, and the high-inflation recession of 1993, characterized by short-term CBAs. By exploiting variation in the timing of CBA renewals, we find that CBAs signed before recessions result in 1pp higher negotiated wage growth than those signed afterward. We leverage balance sheet data on firms and Social Security data on workers to document that CBA-induced DNWR accounted for 12% of job losses in 2009 due to higher wage growth, mainly among workers near the minimum wage floors. These workers experienced persistent non-employment, particularly if they were covered by long-term CBAs, and reallocation was limited. We find no real impacts in 1993, thus identifying conditions under which CBA-induced DNWR can amplify aggregate shocks.
我们分析了西班牙两次主要衰退期间集体谈判协议(cba)导致名义工资刚性下降(DNWR)对工资和就业动态的影响:2009年低通胀衰退(包括短期和长期cba)和1993年高通胀衰退(以短期cba为特征)。通过利用CBA续约时间的变化,我们发现,在经济衰退之前签署的CBA比在经济衰退之后签署的CBA谈判工资增长高出1个百分点。我们利用企业的资产负债表数据和工人的社会保障数据证明,由于工资增长较高,2009年由cba引起的DNWR占失业人数的12%,主要是在接近最低工资底线的工人中。这些工人经历了持续的失业,特别是如果他们被长期cba覆盖,重新分配是有限的。我们没有发现1993年的实际影响,从而确定了cba诱发的DNWR可以放大总冲击的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral sticky prices 行为粘性价格
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103828
Sergio Rebelo , Miguel Santana , Pedro Teles
We develop a model in which households make decisions using a dual-process framework. System 1 relies on fast, intuitive heuristics but is prone to error, while System 2 demands cognitive effort but yields more accurate decisions. Monopolistic firms can influence which system households engage through pricing. This strategic influence creates a novel source of price inertia. The model accounts for the “rockets and feathers” phenomenon (prices rise quickly but fall slowly), explains why firms with unexpectedly high demand often avoid price changes, and why hazard functions are downward sloping. Our model implies that price stability is not optimal.
我们开发了一个模型,在这个模型中,家庭使用双流程框架做出决策。系统1依赖于快速、直观的启发式,但容易出错,而系统2需要认知努力,但产生更准确的决策。垄断企业可以通过定价影响家庭参与哪种系统。这种战略影响产生了价格惯性的新来源。该模型解释了“火箭和羽毛”现象(价格涨得快,跌得慢),解释了为什么需求出乎意料地高的公司经常避免价格变化,以及为什么风险函数是向下倾斜的。我们的模型表明价格稳定不是最优的。
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引用次数: 0
“Information frictions in macroeconomics: The legacy of Robert E. Lucas, Jr.” 宏观经济学中的信息摩擦:小罗伯特·e·卢卡斯的遗产
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103842
Robert M. Townsend
This essay honors the contributions of Robert E. Lucas, Jr., to the most important macro problems where informational frictions are relevant today. The first step focuses on two of Lucas’ papers where information frictions play somewhat different roles, zeroing in on the key elements: money, islands, and imperfect information. Each paper is then linked to associated branches of the literature. The second step argues that new technologies have now emerged which make those key elements all the more crucial in the macroeconomics of today. Monetary policy considerations were forefront in Lucas’ mind, and so that is a recurrent theme throughout this essay.
本文旨在表彰小罗伯特·e·卢卡斯(Robert E. Lucas, Jr.)对当今与信息摩擦相关的最重要宏观问题的贡献。第一步关注Lucas的两篇论文,在这两篇论文中,信息摩擦扮演了不同的角色,并将注意力集中在关键因素上:金钱、孤岛和不完全信息。然后将每篇论文链接到相关的文献分支。第二步认为,现在出现的新技术使这些关键因素在今天的宏观经济学中更加重要。货币政策的考虑在卢卡斯的脑海中是最重要的,所以这是贯穿这篇文章的一个反复出现的主题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Monetary Economics
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