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A plucking model of business cycles 商业周期的采摘模型
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103766
Stéphane Dupraz , Emi Nakamura , Jón Steinsson
In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a “natural rate” and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view – labeled the “plucking model” by Milton Friedman – is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy’s full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of a decrease does not predict the amplitude of the following increase. In addition, business cycles last seven years on average and unemployment rises much faster during recessions than it falls during expansions. We augment a standard labor search model with downward nominal wage rigidity and show how it can fit the plucking property.
在标准模型中，经济活动围绕“自然率”对称波动，稳定政策可以抑制这些波动，但不影响活动的平均水平。另一种观点——被米尔顿·弗里德曼称为“采摘模型”——认为经济波动低于经济的全部潜力上限。我们表明，美国失业率的动态表现出惊人的不对称性，这强烈支持采摘模型：失业率增加后，会出现类似幅度的下降，而下降的幅度并不能预测接下来的增长幅度。此外，商业周期平均持续七年，衰退期间失业率的上升速度远快于扩张期间的下降速度。我们增加了一个标准的劳动力搜索模型，具有向下的名义工资刚性，并展示了它如何适合采摘属性。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate bond market distress 公司债券市场困境
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103765
Nina Boyarchenko , Richard K. Crump , Anna Kovner , Or Shachar
We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly-used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even after controlling for standard predictors including credit spreads.
我们通过公司债券市场困境指数（CMDI）这一新指标将债券市场的运作与未来的经济活动联系起来。CMDI实时整合了一级和二级市场的指标，提供了一个统一的指标来捕捉债务资本市场的准入情况。该指数正确地识别了低迷时期，并预测了常用的市场功能指标的未来实现情况，而反之则不然。我们表明，进入公司债券市场的中断对实体经济产生了经济上重大的、统计上显著的影响，即使在控制了包括信贷息差在内的标准预测指标之后也是如此。
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引用次数: 0
All that glitters: A theory of multiple bubbles with implications for cryptocurrencies 所有这些都是闪闪发光的：一个对加密货币有影响的多重泡沫理论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103764
Jungsuk Han , Yenan Wang
We analyze a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. When some bubbles burst, surviving ones gain value, offsetting losses from collapsed bubbles. This “compensation effect,” combined with diversification, enhances welfare. A portfolio of fragile bubbles may rival a single, stable bubble. The stationary equilibrium imposes a tight upper bound on bubble size, considering covariance structures, price fluctuations, and the emergence of new bubbles. These results have important policy implications, particularly for managing crypto ETFs and issuing CBDCs, highlighting the potential benefits of a diversified approach to fragile financial systems.
我们分析了一个相互竞争和互补的异质理性泡沫模型。当一些泡沫破裂时，幸存的泡沫会获得价值，抵消泡沫破裂带来的损失。这种“补偿效应”与多样化相结合，提高了福利。脆弱泡沫的组合可能与单一的稳定泡沫相匹敌。考虑到协方差结构、价格波动和新泡沫的出现，平稳均衡对泡沫大小施加了严格的上限。这些结果具有重要的政策意义，特别是对于管理加密etf和发行cbdc而言，突出了多样化方法对脆弱金融体系的潜在好处。
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引用次数: 0
Cautious expectations 谨慎的预期
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103759
Alexandre N. Kohlhas , Donald Robertson
This paper develops a tractable theory of cautious expectations. We impose the constraint that agents have to estimate the optimal weight on information in an otherwise standard class of linear quadratic economies. Within this framework, we show that expectations optimally feature dampened responses to new and prior information. Our theory has several similarities to models of limited attention. However, our theory is crucially consistent with the broad-based predictability of forecast errors and biased, overreactive expectations that have otherwise called into question attention-based models. We illustrate the consequences of our framework in a standard consumption–savings problem, which shows that cautious expectations can help account for empirical evidence on the marginal propensity to consume and amplify precautionary savings.
本文发展了一种易于处理的谨慎预期理论。我们施加约束，agent必须在线性二次型经济的标准类别中估计信息的最优权重。在这个框架内，我们表明期望最优地抑制了对新信息和先验信息的反应。我们的理论与有限注意力模型有几个相似之处。然而，我们的理论与预测误差的广泛可预测性和有偏见的、过度反应的预期是一致的，否则，基于注意力的模型就会受到质疑。我们在一个标准的消费-储蓄问题中说明了我们的框架的结果，这表明谨慎的预期可以帮助解释边际消费倾向的经验证据，并放大预防性储蓄。
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free college or better schools” “形成不平等和贫困的代际持续：免费大学还是更好的学校”的讨论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103744
Veronica Guerrieri
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Joint Search Over the Life Cycle” 关于“全生命周期联合搜索”的探讨
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103731
Alessandra Fogli
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Heterogeneous Job Ladders” “异质职业阶梯”的探讨
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103727
Gregor Jarosch
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引用次数: 0
Who gains from corporate tax cuts? 谁从企业减税中获益？
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103722
James Cloyne , Ezgi Kurt , Paolo Surico
Goods producers increase their capital expenditure and employment in response to a cut in marginal corporate income tax rates or an increase in investment tax credits. In contrast, companies in the service sector mostly use any tax windfall to increase dividend payouts. We base our conclusions on a novel measure of U.S. firm-specific tax shocks that combines changes in statutory tax rates faced by each firm with narrative identified legislated U.S. federal tax changes between 1950 and 2006.
商品生产商增加资本支出和就业，以应对边际企业所得税税率的下调或投资税收抵免的增加。相比之下，服务行业的公司大多利用任何税收意外之财来增加派息。我们的结论基于对美国公司特定税收冲击的一种新测量，该测量将每家公司所面临的法定税率变化与1950年至2006年间美国联邦立法税收变化相结合。
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引用次数: 0
Female entrepreneurship in the U.S. 1982–2012: Implications for welfare and aggregate output 1982-2012 年美国女性创业情况：对福利和总产出的影响
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103676
Pedro Bento
The number of women-owned businesses in the U.S. has soared over the last several decades. In 1982 less than 13 percent of businesses were majority-owned by women. By 2012 this number reached 40 percent. This and other evidence suggests that women have faced significant barriers to running businesses. Interpreted through the lens of a model of entrepreneurship, observed trends imply substantial declines in several barriers facing female entrepreneurs. Together, these changes account for almost 4 percent of observed growth in aggregate output and a 3 percent increase in workers’ consumption-equivalent welfare since 1982. By 2012, lower barriers increased the welfare of female entrepreneurs by a dramatic 116 percent, while lowering the welfare of male entrepreneurs by 5 percent. These impacts are in addition to any gains to workers from declining labor-market barriers.
在过去几十年中，美国女性拥有的企业数量激增。1982 年，妇女占多数的企业不到 13%。到 2012 年，这一数字达到了 40%。这和其他证据表明，女性在经营企业时面临着巨大的障碍。从创业模式的角度来看，观察到的趋势意味着女性创业者面临的几种障碍大幅减少。自 1982 年以来，这些变化合计占总产出增长的近 4%，并使工人的消费等值福利增加了 3%。到 2012 年，壁垒的降低使女企业家的福利大幅提高了 116%，而男企业家的福利则降低了 5%。这些影响还不包括劳动力市场壁垒下降给工人带来的收益。
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引用次数: 0
Sovereign risk and Dutch disease 主权风险和荷兰病
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Monetary Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103663
Carlos Esquivel
I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I characterize state-contingent subsidies that implement the efficient allocation and compare them to a simpler subsidy rule that ameliorates the externality. Evidence from spreads, natural-resource rents, and sectoral investment data support the main findings of the model.
我研究了在存在违约风险的情况下，荷兰病如何放大资本部门分配的低效率。在一个包含商品以及贸易和非贸易商品生产的主权违约模型中，当更多资本被分配到非贸易生产中时，违约诱因就会增加。家庭不会将其内化，从而导致非贸易部门规模过大，效率低下。商品暴利通过典型的荷兰病机制放大了这种低效率。我描述了实施有效分配的国家有条件补贴的特征，并将其与改善外部性的更简单补贴规则进行比较。来自利差、自然资源租金和部门投资数据的证据支持模型的主要结论。
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引用次数: 0
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