Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities 自动化与农民工就业关系中的空间依赖：来自中国城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442

Zhoufu Yan , Qihong Zhu , Markus Leibrecht , Fangwei Wu

China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.

中国在自动化的速度和农村劳动力迁移的程度上都是出类拔萃的。本文研究了工业自动化对中国农民工就业的影响，重点研究了空间溢出效应。我们使用2011年至2018年的城市就业数据和工业机器人的采用作为自动化的代理，并应用了空间德宾模型。我们发现，自动化显著减少了当地农民工就业，同时对邻近城市产生了正溢出效应。这些影响因移民的技能、任务、行业、移民类型、年龄和婚姻状况而异。机制分析表明，自动化促进了高新技术企业集聚和技能升级，造成了技能溢价和劳动力外流。同时，自动化加强了相邻城市之间的产业联系和结构相似性，促进了正向溢出效应。研究结果为旨在在技术转型中稳定农村移民就业和福祉的区域间政策提供了信息。

引用次数: 0

Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China 公共数据开放能减少边界污染吗？来自中国省际相邻城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405

Peiyu Li , Hanmei Zhou , Xinzhi Liu , Liping Li

Boundary regions face persistent challenges in pollution control due to fragmented regulatory responsibilities and weak coordination. Public data openness (PDO) offers a new avenue for addressing boundary pollution (BP) by reducing market barriers and strengthening collaborative governance. Using China's PDO rollout as a quasinatural experiment and drawing on data from interprovincial neighboring cities, this study evaluates PDO's impact on BP. The results show that PDO significantly lowers BP without causing pollution displacement, primarily by promoting market integration and intensifying environmental constraints. Its effectiveness also varies according to officials' characteristics, local governance capacity, and the degree of interregional coordination. Analysis of platform data features further indicates that improving data utilization and expanding economic and environmental datasets are crucial for maximizing policy effectiveness. Additional evidence reveals that PDO brings notable economic benefits. Overall, these findings broaden the understanding of PDO and offer important insights for advancing cross-regional environmental governance.

由于监管责任分散、协调不力，边界地区在污染治理方面面临持续挑战。公共数据开放（PDO）通过减少市场壁垒和加强协作治理，为解决边界污染（BP）提供了新的途径。本研究以中国推出PDO作为准自然实验，并借鉴省际相邻城市的数据，评估了PDO对BP的影响。结果表明，PDO主要通过促进市场一体化和强化环境约束，在不造成污染置换的情况下显著降低BP；其有效性也因官员的特点、地方治理能力和区域间协调程度而异。对平台数据特征的分析进一步表明，提高数据利用率和扩大经济和环境数据集对于最大限度地提高政策有效性至关重要。其他证据表明，PDO带来了显著的经济效益。总体而言，这些发现拓宽了对PDO的理解，并为推进跨区域环境治理提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Decoding synchronization of cycles between BRICS and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers 解读金砖国家与美国经济周期同步：模式与驱动因素

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107391

Pami Dua , Divya Tuteja

The paper examines patterns and drivers of synchronization between BRICS and the U.S. It includes common global factors which have not been explored much in the extant literature. To measure economic activity, the study utilizes growth rates of the Coincident Index from January 1995 till December 2022 sourced from Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York and employs the bias-corrected method of moments estimator for dynamic panel models. Results show that U.S. recessions of 2001, 2008-09 and 2020 resulted in higher synchronization across U.S. and BRICS cycles. We construct novel measures for synchronization, trade integration and financial integration and show that trade and financial channels significantly explain the synchronization. Finally, common global factors which amplify synchronization are identified. The findings imply that EME policymakers must undertake proactive and coordinated measures to shield their economies from a recession during times of intense financial stress, heightened policy uncertainty, and significant oil price shocks.

本文考察了金砖国家和美国之间同步的模式和驱动因素，其中包括在现有文献中尚未深入探讨的共同全球因素。为了衡量经济活动，本研究使用了纽约经济周期研究所1995年1月至2022年12月的重合指数的增长率，并对动态面板模型采用了矩估计的偏倚校正方法。结果显示，2001年、2008-09年和2020年的美国经济衰退导致美国和金砖国家经济周期的同步程度更高。我们构建了同步、贸易一体化和金融一体化的新测度，并表明贸易和金融渠道显著地解释了同步。最后，确定了放大同步的常见全局因素。研究结果表明，EME政策制定者必须采取积极和协调的措施，在金融压力大、政策不确定性增加和油价大幅冲击的情况下，保护其经济免受衰退的影响。

引用次数: 0

Matching for three: The search activities of workers, firms, and employment services 匹配三：工人、企业和就业服务的搜索活动

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434

Tobias Hartl , Christian Hutter , Enzo Weber

The standard labour market matching function neglects a substantial variation of hirings. A crucial driver of this latent part is the search intensity of job seekers and firms, as well as the placement intensity of employment agencies. However, there is still a lack of integration of all three search and placement intensities into a unified theoretical framework. Their combined labour market effects have not been estimated so far. We feed all three intensities into the theoretical framework of a labour market matching function to estimate their impact on the job finding rate – effects which are not settled a priori. This could provide important stylised facts for subsequent theory building. For measuring the search and placement intensities, we use big data on online activity obtained from the job exchange of the German Federal Employment Agency and from its internal placement-software. The results show that all three intensities significantly contribute to the variation in job findings beyond vacancies and unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, reduced search intensities accounted for 44 percent of lost hirings and 16 percent of the labour market related increase in unemployment.

标准的劳动力市场匹配函数忽略了雇佣的实质性变化。这一潜在部分的关键驱动因素是求职者和企业的搜索强度，以及职业介绍所的安置强度。然而，目前还没有将这三种搜索和安置强度整合成一个统一的理论框架。迄今为止，它们对劳动力市场的综合影响尚未得到估计。我们将这三种强度输入到劳动力市场匹配函数的理论框架中，以估计它们对求职率的影响——这些影响不是先验的。这可以为后续的理论构建提供重要的程式化事实。为了衡量求职和就业的强度，我们使用了来自德国联邦就业局（German Federal Employment Agency）的职业交流及其内部就业软件的在线活动大数据。结果表明，除了空缺和失业率之外，这三种强度都显著影响了就业结果的变化。在2019冠状病毒病危机期间，搜索强度的降低占失业人数的44%，占劳动力市场相关失业人数的16%。

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引用次数: 0

Sale versus licensing of a cost-reducing innovation by an outside patentholder 外部专利所有人对降低成本的创新的销售与许可

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422

Manel Antelo , Lluís Bru

We investigate an outside patentholder's choice between selling and licensing a cost-reducing innovation to firms that produce differentiated goods in a Cournot duopoly. Sale implies the transfer of ownership rights, whereas licensing—by the patentholder directly or by any assignee—occurs through an endogenously chosen two-part tariff contract. We find that the patentholder has an incentive to sell the innovation (to a single firm that, in turn, licences it to its competitor) only when the goods are close substitutes and the innovation size is sufficiently minimal. Otherwise, the patentholder prefers to licence the innovation to both firms. Although the transfer of innovation, whether through outright sale or licensing, always improves aggregate welfare compared with the pre-transfer scenario, consumer surplus is reduced when the transfer is made by means of sales. Therefore, a socially optimal public policy should aim at banning the sale of outside innovations or, at least, preventing their subsequent licensing by the assignee from within the industry.

我们研究了在古诺双头垄断中，外部专利所有人在向生产差异化产品的公司出售和许可降低成本的创新之间的选择。销售意味着所有权的转移，而许可——由专利所有人直接或由任何受让人——通过内生选择的两部分关税合同发生。我们发现，只有当产品是接近的替代品，且创新规模足够小时，专利持有人才有动机出售创新（给一家公司，而这家公司又将其授权给竞争对手）。否则，专利持有人更愿意将创新授权给两家公司。虽然与转移前相比，创新的转移，无论是通过直接销售还是许可，总是能提高总福利，但当以销售方式进行转移时，消费者剩余会减少。因此，一项社会最优的公共政策应旨在禁止出售外部创新，或者至少防止受让人随后在行业内对其进行许可。

引用次数: 0

Imported intangible capital and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from 42 economies 进口无形资本与部门经济增长：来自42个经济体的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429

Shuyue Liu, Radhika Lahiri, Annastiina Silvennoinen

This paper investigates the impact of imported intangible capital on value added. While existing studies confirm the importance of intangible capital for growth, its distinct effects by source, imported versus domestic, remain underexplored. Using data from the World Input-Output Database for 2000–2014, we employ a two-way fixed effects model to estimate both long- and short-term impacts. The results show that intangible capital generally increases value added in the long run but reduces it in the short run due to adjustment costs before productivity gains are realised. Moreover, imported intangibles exert stronger negative short-term effects than domestic ones. However, this pattern reverses after the global financial crisis, suggesting that multinational firms are more resilient to shocks. These findings provide new insights into the role of intangible capital on economic growth and imply the need for institutional reform and financial support to minimise short-term adjustment costs.

本文研究了进口无形资本对增加价值的影响。虽然现有的研究证实了无形资本对增长的重要性，但其不同来源（进口与国内）的不同影响仍未得到充分探讨。利用2000-2014年世界投入产出数据库的数据，我们采用双向固定效应模型来估计长期和短期影响。研究结果表明，无形资本在长期总体上增加了企业的增加值，但在短期内由于生产力收益实现前的调整成本而降低了企业的增加值。此外，进口无形资产的短期负面效应强于国内无形资产。然而，在全球金融危机之后，这种模式发生了逆转，这表明跨国公司对冲击的抵御能力更强。这些发现为无形资本对经济增长的作用提供了新的见解，并暗示需要进行制度改革和金融支持，以尽量减少短期调整成本。

引用次数: 0

The fiscal policy blend and its impact on sectoral growth: The case of Greece 财政政策组合及其对部门增长的影响：以希腊为例

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107395

Andreas Zervas , Dimitrios Thomakos

We investigate how different types of government spending and total taxes affect the Greek economy, with a focus on the production side. We analyze their effects on various value-added sectors. Various government spending types impact production sectors differently; notably, government consumption spending has a more substantial effect on boosting the value added of the non-tradable sector. Our findings emphasize the way fiscal policy influences the economy from the production side. This aligns with recent theoretical studies suggesting that government spending significantly affects services. Additionally, we discovered a new insight: higher taxes severely decrease industrial production, increase inflation, with a larger multiplier effect than spending. These results offer crucial policy lessons; they help explain why adjustment programs resulted in significant output losses and highlight when consolidations may be successful.

我们调查了不同类型的政府支出和总税收是如何影响希腊经济的，重点是生产方面。我们分析了它们对各种增值部门的影响。不同类型的政府支出对生产部门的影响不同；值得注意的是，政府消费支出对提高非贸易部门增加值的作用更为显著。我们的研究结果强调了财政政策从生产方面影响经济的方式。这与最近的理论研究一致，表明政府支出显著影响服务。此外，我们发现了一个新的见解：高税收严重降低了工业生产，增加了通货膨胀，其乘数效应比支出更大。这些结果提供了重要的政策教训；它们有助于解释为什么调整计划会导致重大的产出损失，并强调何时整合可能成功。

引用次数: 0

Common institutional ownership and corporate financial investment 共同的机构所有权和企业财务投资

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107423

Xiaoyu Chen, Qi Luo

Excessive financial investment can hinder corporate sustainable development and broader economic growth. However, the influence of common institutional ownership on corporate financial investment remains insufficiently studied. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2022, this study examines whether, and through which channels, common institutional ownership influences corporate financial investment. We find that common institutional ownership significantly curbs financial investment and exacerbates investment structure bias toward real investment. Mechanism tests indicate that common institutional ownership inhibits financial investment by strengthening financing capacity, improving operational efficiency, and increasing innovative activities. The financialization inhibitory effect is stronger for single-segment firms, those in less competitive industries, and firms located in regions with stronger future-oriented culture. In addition, common institutional ownership alleviates the negative impact of financialization on future corporate core performance. Overall, the findings provide novel empirical evidence on the positive role of common institutional ownership in supporting real economic development.

过度的金融投资会阻碍企业的可持续发展和更广泛的经济增长。然而，共同机构所有权对公司财务投资的影响研究还不够充分。本研究以2009年至2022年的中国上市公司为样本，考察共同机构所有权是否以及通过哪些渠道影响公司财务投资。我们发现，共同机构所有权显著抑制了金融投资，加剧了投资结构对实体投资的偏向。机制测试表明，共同机构所有权通过加强融资能力、提高运营效率和增加创新活动来抑制金融投资。金融化抑制效应在单一部门企业、竞争力较弱行业企业和未来导向文化较强地区的企业中更强。此外，共同机构持股缓解了金融化对未来公司核心绩效的负面影响。总体而言，研究结果为共同所有制在支持实体经济发展中的积极作用提供了新的实证证据。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of tax reduction policies on fine and confiscation revenues: Evidence from China’s VAT reform 税收减免政策对罚没收入的影响：来自中国增值税改革的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107431

Xueren Zhou, Nian Liu, Ran Chen

Tax cuts may stimulate economic growth while tightening local fiscal constraints. Leveraging China’s VAT reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether local governments offset tax revenue losses by increasing fine and confiscation revenues. We manually compiled a dataset of administrative penalties and implemented a difference-in-differences regression approach. We find a significant post-reform increase in fine and confiscation revenues, providing evidence of a tax-fee substitution effect. The effect is more pronounced in regions with weaker business environments and is concentrated in authorities with greater enforcement discretion. Mechanism tests indicate that fiscal pressure, interacting with enforcement discretion, drives the increase in fine and confiscation revenues. Our findings reveal an unintended fiscal consequence of tax-cut policies. The design of tax reduction policies should fully account for local fiscal incentives to mitigate behavioral distortions that could undermine policy effectiveness.

减税可能会刺激经济增长，同时收紧地方财政约束。利用中国增值税改革作为准自然实验，我们考察了地方政府是否通过增加罚款和没收收入来抵消税收损失。我们手工编制了一个行政处罚数据集，并实现了差异中的差异回归方法。我们发现改革后罚款和没收收入显著增加，提供了税费替代效应的证据。这种影响在商业环境较弱的地区更为明显，并集中在执法自由裁量权较大的当局。机制测试表明，财政压力与执法自由裁量权相互作用，推动了罚款和没收收入的增加。我们的研究结果揭示了减税政策带来的意想不到的财政后果。减税政策的设计应充分考虑到地方财政激励措施，以减轻可能破坏政策有效性的行为扭曲。

引用次数: 0

The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms 绿色债券发行对同行企业绿色并购的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417

Shiqi Wang , Yongqiao Wang

This study investigates the impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions (GM&As) of peer firms. Using data from China's A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2022, we employ staggered DID model to demonstrate that green bond issuances can stimulate GM&A activities of peer firms. The stimulating effect is mainly attributable to competition rather than environmental penalty pressure. Green bond issuances also raise executives' environmental awareness and attract greater attention from green investors in peer firms, thereby reinforcing GM&A activities. The effect is more pronounced for firms located in regions with stricter environmental regulation, with greater media attention, and classified as heavily polluting. Moreover, GM&As enable peer firms to significantly enhance their green technological innovation and environmental performance. These findings provide new evidence on how green financial instruments shape firms' strategic behaviour and offer implications for a more effective green finance system.

本研究探讨绿色债券发行对同业企业绿色并购的影响。本文利用2012 - 2022年中国A股上市公司的数据，采用交错DID模型验证了绿色债券发行对同行公司gm& A活动的刺激作用。刺激效应主要来自竞争而非环境处罚压力。绿色债券的发行也提高了高管的环保意识，吸引了同行绿色投资者的更多关注，从而加强了GM&；A活动。对于那些位于环境监管更严格、媒体关注度更高、污染严重的地区的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。此外，GM&；As使同行企业的绿色技术创新和环境绩效显著提高。这些发现为绿色金融工具如何塑造企业的战略行为提供了新的证据，并为建立更有效的绿色金融体系提供了启示。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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Economic Modelling

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