Economic Modelling最新文献

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AI strategy, earnings management, and corporate fraud: Evidence from listed firms in China 人工智能战略、盈余管理与企业舞弊：来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460

Liufang Xie , Zhengbo Peng , Xiaoge Tong

This study examines how heterogeneous artificial intelligence (AI) strategies affect corporate fraud, addressing a gap in the literature that has largely focused on AI's governance role from a technological perspective while overlooking firms' underlying adoption motivations. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2023, we distinguish between symbolic and substantive AI strategies and analyze their differential effects on corporate fraud. The results show that symbolic AI adoption significantly increases fraud risk, particularly among highly financialized firms, non-manufacturing firms, and firms operating under high uncertainty, whereas substantive AI adoption has no direct effect on fraud incidence. Mechanism analysis reveals that symbolic AI increases fraud risk indirectly through accrual-based earnings management, suggesting that opportunistic financial reporting constitutes an important transmission mechanism. In addition, we find that non-standard audit opinions significantly weaken the positive association between symbolic AI adoption and corporate fraud, highlighting the disciplinary role of external audit oversight. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of organisational motivation in shaping the economic consequences of AI adoption and offer policy-relevant implications for fostering more rational and transparent use of emerging technologies.

本研究探讨了异质人工智能（AI）策略如何影响企业欺诈，解决了文献中的空白，这些文献主要关注人工智能从技术角度的治理作用，而忽视了公司的潜在采用动机。利用2013年至2023年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，我们区分了象征性和实质性人工智能策略，并分析了它们对公司欺诈的差异影响。结果表明，象征性人工智能的采用显著增加了欺诈风险，特别是在高度金融化的企业、非制造业企业和在高不确定性下运营的企业中，而实质性人工智能的采用对欺诈发生率没有直接影响。机制分析表明，符号人工智能通过权责发生制盈余管理间接增加了欺诈风险，表明机会主义财务报告构成了重要的传导机制。此外，我们发现非标准审计意见显著削弱了象征性人工智能采用与公司舞弊之间的正相关关系，突出了外部审计监督的纪律作用。总的来说，这些发现强调了组织动机在塑造人工智能采用的经济后果方面的重要性，并为促进更合理、更透明地使用新兴技术提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China 贸易自由化带来的不均衡利益：关税壁垒与中国劳动力迁移

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483

Jiang Wang, Zhenhua Ji, Kai Liu

This study examines how tariff barriers shape internal labor migration in China. While existing literature widely documents trade-induced disparities, less attention studies its impact on worker migrants. We introduce a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanisms and empirically test the predictions using 2000–2015 route-level variations. Foreign tariff reductions bolster regional exports through increased firm entry, survival of lower-productivity firms, export volume expansion, and enhanced export propensity, collectively driving wage growth and migration inflows. Conversely, import tariff cuts precipitate domestic market contraction through reduced settled-firm counts and market exit of lower-productivity producers, suppressing wages and triggering labor outflows. These findings shed new light on labor-migration responses to uneven trade benefits, offering policy insights for mitigating spatial inequality.

本研究探讨关税壁垒如何影响中国内部劳动力迁移。虽然现有文献广泛地记录了贸易引起的差异，但很少有人关注其对工人流动的影响。我们引入了一个理论框架来证明机制，并使用2000-2015年的路线水平变化对预测进行了实证检验。外国关税的降低通过增加企业进入、低生产率企业的生存、出口量的扩大和出口倾向的增强来促进区域出口，共同推动工资增长和移民流入。相反，进口关税的削减通过减少定居企业数量和低生产率生产商的市场退出，导致国内市场收缩，从而抑制工资并引发劳动力外流。这些发现揭示了劳动力迁移对贸易利益不平衡的反应，为缓解空间不平等提供了政策见解。

引用次数: 0

Vying for support: Lobbying a legislator with uncertain preferences 争取支持：游说一位不确定偏好的议员

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489

Anne Marie Go , Nikolaos Kokonas , Javier Rivas

We construct a model in which two opposing lobbyists bid for the support of a legislator with an uncertain bias toward either lobbyist. Notably, high bias uncertainty yields lobbyists offering low bids. In contrast, low bias uncertainty makes lobbyists bid aggressively. Finally, for moderate bias uncertainty, we find a nonmonotonic relationship between the legislator’s bias uncertainty and the lobbyists’ bids.

我们构建了一个模型，在这个模型中，两个对立的游说者争取一个立法者的支持，而立法者对其中任何一个游说者都有不确定的偏见。值得注意的是，高偏见不确定性导致游说者出价较低。相比之下，低偏见的不确定性使游说者积极竞标。最后，对于中等偏倚不确定性，我们发现立法者的偏倚不确定性与游说者的出价之间存在非单调关系。

引用次数: 0

Capital requirements and risk-taking in community banks: The role of market power 社区银行的资本要求和风险承担：市场力量的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471

Chenzi Yang , Guang-Zhao Yang , Fernando Moreira , Thomas Welsh Archibald

This paper examines the impact of capital requirements on risk-taking in U.S. community banks. While existing literature highlights capital requirements’ influence on liquidity and credit risks, the differential impact across market power characteristics especially for smaller institutions remains unclear. Using data from 5702 U.S. community banks, we employ 2SLS-IV models to reveal an inverted U-shaped effect of capital requirements on liquidity risk and a U-shaped effect on credit risk. The impact of capital requirements diminishes as market power increases, particularly in banks with lower liquid assets, liabilities, and transaction deposits. The impact of Tier 1 and CET1 capital requirements exhibit similar patterns, while CCB requirements display an opposite trend. These findings offer new insights into financial risk management, highlighting the need for tailored regulatory approaches for community banks with low market power to enhance overall stability.

本文考察了资本要求对美国社区银行风险承担的影响。虽然现有文献强调了资本要求对流动性和信用风险的影响，但市场力量特征之间的差异影响，特别是对小型机构的影响仍不清楚。利用5702家美国社区银行的数据，我们采用2SLS-IV模型揭示了资本要求对流动性风险的倒u型效应和对信用风险的u型效应。资本要求的影响随着市场力量的增强而减弱，特别是在流动性资产、负债和交易存款较低的银行。一级和CET1资本要求的影响表现出类似的模式，而建设银行的要求则表现出相反的趋势。这些发现为金融风险管理提供了新的见解，突出了为市场支配力较低的社区银行制定量身定制的监管方法以提高整体稳定性的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China 技术发展对老年人就业的影响：来自中国高新技术产业扩张的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464

Xi Luo , Kaidong Jia , Yiming Xia , Guochang Zhao

Technological development and population ageing have been two defining trends in recent decades. However, whether technological advancements reinstate or displace employment opportunities for older workers remains unclear. Using a nationally representative dataset from China and the Bartik instrumental variable approach, we observe that while the overall impact of technological development on employment is estimated to be negative but statistically insignificant, the negative effect intensifies with age and becomes negative beyond the age of approximately 42. We suggest that displacement effects outweigh reinstatement effects, as the negative impact is driven primarily by older adults with lower socioeconomic statuses, who are more vulnerable to job displacement.

近几十年来，技术发展和人口老龄化是两大决定性趋势。然而，技术进步是否恢复或取代了老年工人的就业机会仍不清楚。利用中国具有全国代表性的数据集和Bartik工具变量方法，我们观察到，虽然技术发展对就业的总体影响估计是负面的，但统计上不显著，但这种负面影响随着年龄的增长而加剧，并在大约42岁之后变为负值。我们认为，流离失所效应大于恢复效应，因为负面影响主要是由社会经济地位较低的老年人驱动的，他们更容易受到工作流离失所的影响。

引用次数: 0

Do aggregate dynamics in developing economies differ after a rise in home and foreign productivity? 在国内外生产率提高后，发展中经济体的总体动态是否有所不同？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447

Mustafa Tuğan , Seda E. Özçelik

While developing economies set narrowing their productivity gap with advanced economies as a key goal, the macroeconomic consequences of productivity improvements in developing economies remain underexplored. In particular, the existing literature often overlooks whether domestic versus foreign-driven productivity gains have different aggregate effects. Our approach assumes that foreign technology spills over into developing economies’ technology, but not vice versa, allowing us to identify the distinct impacts of both sources of productivity growth in a novel way. Our findings show that U.S. productivity shocks in developing economies have minimal effects on such key macroeconomic variables as output, employment, prices, and so on, while domestic productivity shocks lead to significant and broad-based responses across all these variables. These contrasting effects challenge the complementary relationship found in larger developing economies like India and stress the need to differentiate between domestic and foreign sources of productivity improvements to better understand their economic impact.

虽然发展中经济体将缩小与发达经济体的生产率差距作为一个关键目标，但生产率提高对发展中经济体的宏观经济影响仍未得到充分探讨。特别是，现有文献往往忽略了国内和国外驱动的生产率增长是否具有不同的总体效应。我们的方法假设外国技术会溢出到发展中经济体的技术中，而不是相反，这使我们能够以一种新颖的方式确定两种生产率增长来源的不同影响。我们的研究结果表明，美国对发展中经济体的生产率冲击对产出、就业、价格等关键宏观经济变量的影响最小，而国内生产率冲击对所有这些变量都产生了显著的、广泛的反应。这些对比效应对印度等较大发展中经济体的互补关系提出了挑战，并强调有必要区分国内和国外生产率提高的来源，以便更好地了解其经济影响。

引用次数: 0

The impact of fertility on older adults’ healthcare utilization: The roles of health and wealth channels 生育对老年人医疗保健利用的影响：健康渠道和财富渠道的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455

Mingjia Xie , Ting Yin , Yi Zhang , Takashi Oshio

This study investigates how fertility affects healthcare utilization among older adults. Departing from the literature's primary focus on health outcomes, it addresses a key gap in understanding family-level determinants of health spending in aging societies. Using data from rural China and an instrumental variable strategy, we find that having more children increases healthcare utilization and spending, but also the likelihood of forgoing costly inpatient care, reflecting unmet healthcare needs among older adults. The health cost burden is particularly pronounced for women, less-educated parents, and families with limited resources or weak insurance. Two mechanisms explain these effects: the “health channel”, where higher fertility worsens parental health and increases demand for healthcare, and the “wealth channel”, where children provide support that facilitates healthcare use. These findings reveal an overlooked cost of fertility: birth-encouraging policies, while easing demographic pressures, can increase older generations' financial burdens, underscoring the importance of equitable and affordable healthcare.

本研究探讨生育能力如何影响老年人的医疗保健利用。从文献对健康结果的主要关注出发，它解决了在理解老龄化社会中卫生支出的家庭层面决定因素方面的关键差距。使用来自中国农村的数据和工具变量策略，我们发现有更多的孩子会增加医疗保健的利用率和支出，但也有可能放弃昂贵的住院治疗，这反映了老年人未满足的医疗保健需求。对于妇女、受教育程度较低的父母以及资源有限或保险薄弱的家庭来说，医疗费用负担尤其明显。有两种机制可以解释这些影响：“健康渠道”，即较高的生育率使父母的健康恶化并增加对保健的需求；以及“财富渠道”，即儿童提供支助，促进保健的使用。这些发现揭示了一个被忽视的生育成本：鼓励生育的政策在缓解人口压力的同时，可能会增加老一代的经济负担，从而强调了公平和负担得起的医疗保健的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt 杠杆、流动性和投资：公司债务的周期性影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457

Rubén Gonzálvez, Luis Cárdenas

How does corporate debt shape firms’ investment behavior across the business cycle? Using firm-level balance sheet data for Spanish companies over 1997–2019, we estimate a flexible panel data model and a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to identify the causal effect of leverage on investment. We find that leverage stimulates investment before 2008 but strongly contracts it during the post-2008 deleveraging period. After 2008, highly indebted firms reduce their investment rate by 1.8 percentage points more than less indebted firms. This contraction is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, with micro firms cutting their investment rate by 6.3 percentage points and firms in construction showing particularly strong declines. In contrast, investment by large firms remains comparatively stable. The results underscore the procyclical nature of corporate debt and suggest the importance of closely monitoring firm leverage and liquidity conditions, particularly for SMEs, during periods of economic expansion and contraction.

企业债务如何影响企业在整个经济周期中的投资行为？利用西班牙公司1997-2019年的企业资产负债表数据，我们估计了一个灵活的面板数据模型和双重稳健的差异中差异设计，以确定杠杆对投资的因果影响。我们发现，在2008年之前，杠杆会刺激投资，但在2008年之后的去杠杆时期，杠杆会强烈收缩投资。2008年以后，高负债企业的投资率比低负债企业高1.8个百分点。收缩主要集中在中小企业，其中微型企业投资率下降6.3个百分点，建筑业降幅尤为明显。相比之下，大公司的投资相对稳定。研究结果强调了企业债务的顺周期性质，并表明在经济扩张和收缩期间密切监测企业杠杆率和流动性状况的重要性，尤其是对中小企业而言。

引用次数: 0

Technological peer pressure and inventor mobility: Evidence from China 技术同侪压力与发明者流动：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485

Geng Chen, Yikai Han

This paper investigates the relationship between Technological Peer Pressure (TPP) and inventor mobility. Using data on 398,734 inventors from 3078 Chinese listed firms over 2007–2021, we find that TPP significantly increases the likelihood of inventor mobility. This conclusion passes a series of robustness tests and mitigates endogeneity issues via the IV-2SLS and PSM-DID models. We identify three mechanisms driving this effect: heightened corporate earnings pressure, increased innovation bubbles, and diminished collaborative culture. This positive TPP-mobility link is weaker for inventors with more co-inventors or star inventors, for firms with more R&D alliances or less myopic management. Overall, our results highlight TPP's critical role in shaping inventor mobility, offering insights for firms to respond to technological competition in the product market.

本文研究了技术同伴压力（TPP）与发明者流动之间的关系。利用2007-2021年3078家中国上市公司398,734名发明人的数据，我们发现TPP显著提高了发明人流动的可能性。这一结论通过了一系列稳健性测试，并通过IV-2SLS和PSM-DID模型缓解了内生性问题。我们确定了驱动这种效应的三种机制：企业盈利压力增加、创新泡沫增加和合作文化减少。对于拥有更多共同发明者或明星发明者的发明者，对于拥有更多研发联盟或较少短视管理的公司来说，这种积极的tpp -流动性联系较弱。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了TPP在塑造发明者流动性方面的关键作用，为企业应对产品市场中的技术竞争提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

Local government debt and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China 地方政府债务与非金融企业影子银行：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472

Zheng Wu, Alice Y. Ouyang

This study explores how local government debt expansion reshapes the financing behavior and costs of non-financial enterprises, and further motivates enterprises to engage in shadow banking activities. To clarify the underlying mechanism, we conduct an empirical analysis utilizing data on entrusted loans from Chinese non-financial A-share listed enterprises spanning the period 2007–2020. The results show that local government debt expansion tightens bank credit availability for the corporate sector, forcing financing-disadvantaged enterprises to seek alternative funding through entrusted loans. Concurrently, increased demand-driven loan returns attract financing-advantaged enterprises to participate in entrusted loan businesses, accelerating their financialization while transforming financing challenges for disadvantaged corporates from “difficult financing” to “expensive financing.” Our study highlights the critical need to optimize cross-sector credit allocation. Regulatory authorities should closely monitor how local government debt expansion promotes corporate reliance on shadow banking and remain vigilant against risk transmission from the government sector to the corporate sector.

本研究探讨了地方政府债务扩张如何重塑非金融企业的融资行为和融资成本，进而激励企业从事影子银行活动。本文利用2007-2020年中国非金融类a股上市企业委托贷款数据进行了实证分析。结果表明，地方政府债务扩张收紧了企业部门的银行信贷供应，迫使融资困难的企业通过委托贷款寻求替代融资。与此同时，需求驱动型贷款回报的增加吸引了融资优势企业参与委托贷款业务，加快了融资优势企业的金融化进程，同时也使融资劣势企业的融资挑战从“融资难”转变为“融资贵”。我们的研究强调了优化跨部门信贷配置的迫切需要。监管部门应密切监测地方政府债务扩张如何促进企业对影子银行的依赖，并保持警惕，防止风险从政府部门向企业部门传导。

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