Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Intelligent manufacturing and Firm Markup: Evidence from China 智能制造与企业加价：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107425

Yongwei Ye , Boyang Xie , Zhaoda Liu , Yiyu Wang

Intelligent technologies are increasingly integrated into traditional manufacturing, making it essential to assess their economic implications for production and operational decisions. However, the link between intelligent manufacturing and firms' markup remains unclear. Using a quasi-natural experiment based on China's Intelligent Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Projects, this study examines how intelligent manufacturing affects firms' markup. The findings show that intelligent manufacturing significantly increases markup, driven by innovation incentives and efficiency-enhancing effects. Heterogeneity tests indicate that this positive influence is stronger in firms with higher capital intensity, in more competitive industries, and in regions with richer human capital. Overall, the study demonstrates that intelligent manufacturing can effectively raise firms' markup and offers guidance for emerging economies seeking to upgrade and transform their manufacturing sectors through advanced digital technologies.

智能技术越来越多地融入传统制造业，因此评估其对生产和运营决策的经济影响至关重要。然而，智能制造和企业利润之间的联系仍不清楚。本文采用基于中国智能制造试点示范项目的准自然实验，考察了智能制造对企业利润率的影响。研究结果表明，在创新激励和效率提升效应的驱动下，智能制造显著提高了加价。异质性检验表明，在资本密集度较高的企业、竞争力较强的行业和人力资本较丰富的地区，这种正向影响更强。总体而言，研究表明，智能制造可以有效提高企业的利润率，并为寻求通过先进的数字技术升级和转型制造业的新兴经济体提供指导。

引用次数: 0

Common institutional ownership and corporate financial investment 共同的机构所有权和企业财务投资

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107423

Xiaoyu Chen, Qi Luo

Excessive financial investment can hinder corporate sustainable development and broader economic growth. However, the influence of common institutional ownership on corporate financial investment remains insufficiently studied. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2022, this study examines whether, and through which channels, common institutional ownership influences corporate financial investment. We find that common institutional ownership significantly curbs financial investment and exacerbates investment structure bias toward real investment. Mechanism tests indicate that common institutional ownership inhibits financial investment by strengthening financing capacity, improving operational efficiency, and increasing innovative activities. The financialization inhibitory effect is stronger for single-segment firms, those in less competitive industries, and firms located in regions with stronger future-oriented culture. In addition, common institutional ownership alleviates the negative impact of financialization on future corporate core performance. Overall, the findings provide novel empirical evidence on the positive role of common institutional ownership in supporting real economic development.

过度的金融投资会阻碍企业的可持续发展和更广泛的经济增长。然而，共同机构所有权对公司财务投资的影响研究还不够充分。本研究以2009年至2022年的中国上市公司为样本，考察共同机构所有权是否以及通过哪些渠道影响公司财务投资。我们发现，共同机构所有权显著抑制了金融投资，加剧了投资结构对实体投资的偏向。机制测试表明，共同机构所有权通过加强融资能力、提高运营效率和增加创新活动来抑制金融投资。金融化抑制效应在单一部门企业、竞争力较弱行业企业和未来导向文化较强地区的企业中更强。此外，共同机构持股缓解了金融化对未来公司核心绩效的负面影响。总体而言，研究结果为共同所有制在支持实体经济发展中的积极作用提供了新的实证证据。

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引用次数: 0

Strategic income shifting in uncertain times: Insights from economic policy uncertainty 不确定时期的战略收入转移：来自经济政策不确定性的见解

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420

Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pandej Chintrakarn (Corresponding author.) , Pornsit Jiraporn

We explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on outbound income shifting by U.S. firms, offering valuable insights into how firms adapt their tax strategies under uncertain economic conditions. Using a unique dataset from De Simone et al. (2019) originally derived from confidential IRS records, we find a significant positive effect of EPU on outbound income shifting. Firms respond to uncertainty by more actively reallocating profits across jurisdictions to mitigate risk. These findings are consistently validated through rigorous methods, including propensity score matching, entropy balancing, and instrumental-variable analysis. We also show that firms with higher tax burdens are more inclined to shift income, while those with significant dividend commitments tend to adopt conservative approaches. Income shifting attributable to EPU is shown to erode firm value and profitability, possibly due to regulatory scrutiny and reputational risks. However, strong governance, particularly independent and gender-diverse boards, helps mitigate income shifting during uncertain times.

我们探讨了经济政策不确定性（EPU）对美国企业对外收入转移的影响，为企业如何在不确定的经济条件下调整其税收策略提供了有价值的见解。使用De Simone等人（2019）的独特数据集（最初来自美国国税局的机密记录），我们发现EPU对对外收入转移有显著的积极影响。企业对不确定性的反应是更积极地在不同司法管辖区之间重新分配利润，以降低风险。这些发现通过严格的方法得到了一致的验证，包括倾向得分匹配、熵平衡和工具变量分析。我们还表明，税负较高的公司更倾向于转移收入，而那些有重大股息承诺的公司倾向于采取保守的方法。可归因于EPU的收入转移显示出侵蚀公司价值和盈利能力，可能是由于监管审查和声誉风险。然而，强有力的治理，特别是独立和性别多元化的董事会，有助于缓解不确定时期的收入转移。

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引用次数: 0

Sale versus licensing of a cost-reducing innovation by an outside patentholder 外部专利所有人对降低成本的创新的销售与许可

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422

Manel Antelo , Lluís Bru

We investigate an outside patentholder's choice between selling and licensing a cost-reducing innovation to firms that produce differentiated goods in a Cournot duopoly. Sale implies the transfer of ownership rights, whereas licensing—by the patentholder directly or by any assignee—occurs through an endogenously chosen two-part tariff contract. We find that the patentholder has an incentive to sell the innovation (to a single firm that, in turn, licences it to its competitor) only when the goods are close substitutes and the innovation size is sufficiently minimal. Otherwise, the patentholder prefers to licence the innovation to both firms. Although the transfer of innovation, whether through outright sale or licensing, always improves aggregate welfare compared with the pre-transfer scenario, consumer surplus is reduced when the transfer is made by means of sales. Therefore, a socially optimal public policy should aim at banning the sale of outside innovations or, at least, preventing their subsequent licensing by the assignee from within the industry.

我们研究了在古诺双头垄断中，外部专利所有人在向生产差异化产品的公司出售和许可降低成本的创新之间的选择。销售意味着所有权的转移，而许可——由专利所有人直接或由任何受让人——通过内生选择的两部分关税合同发生。我们发现，只有当产品是接近的替代品，且创新规模足够小时，专利持有人才有动机出售创新（给一家公司，而这家公司又将其授权给竞争对手）。否则，专利持有人更愿意将创新授权给两家公司。虽然与转移前相比，创新的转移，无论是通过直接销售还是许可，总是能提高总福利，但当以销售方式进行转移时，消费者剩余会减少。因此，一项社会最优的公共政策应旨在禁止出售外部创新，或者至少防止受让人随后在行业内对其进行许可。

引用次数: 0

From school to work: How alumni networks on LinkedIn shape PhD journeys 从学校到工作：LinkedIn上的校友网络如何塑造博士之旅

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107419

Haoqian Zou

This paper explores how alumni networks shape the school-to-work migration of PhD graduates entering nonacademic sectors. Using résumés collected from LinkedIn, I assembled a dataset of roughly 300,000 PhD graduates from 145 R1 universities between 1980 and 2016. The dataset provides detailed information on education and employment histories, enabling analysis of alumni stock and migration flows across school–state pairs. I employ panel regressions at the school–destination level, incorporating origin-year, destination-year, and origin–destination interactive fixed effects to address omitted-variable bias. The results show that a larger number of managerial alumni is positively associated with migration, likely reflecting a supportive role for new graduates. Conversely, more junior alumni are linked to lower migration, suggesting potential competitive pressures.

本文探讨了校友网络如何影响博士毕业生进入非学术领域的从学校到工作的迁移。我利用从领英（LinkedIn）上收集的数据，收集了1980年至2016年间来自145所R1大学的大约30万名博士毕业生的数据集。该数据集提供了有关教育和就业历史的详细信息，可以分析校友存量和跨学校州对的移民流动。我采用了学校-目的地水平的面板回归，结合了起源年、目的地年和起源-目的地的互动固定效应，以解决遗漏的变量偏差。结果显示，更多的管理校友与移民呈正相关，可能反映了新毕业生的支持作用。相反，更多资历较浅的校友与较低的移民率有关，这表明存在潜在的竞争压力。

引用次数: 0

The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms 绿色债券发行对同行企业绿色并购的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417

Shiqi Wang , Yongqiao Wang

This study investigates the impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions (GM&As) of peer firms. Using data from China's A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2022, we employ staggered DID model to demonstrate that green bond issuances can stimulate GM&A activities of peer firms. The stimulating effect is mainly attributable to competition rather than environmental penalty pressure. Green bond issuances also raise executives' environmental awareness and attract greater attention from green investors in peer firms, thereby reinforcing GM&A activities. The effect is more pronounced for firms located in regions with stricter environmental regulation, with greater media attention, and classified as heavily polluting. Moreover, GM&As enable peer firms to significantly enhance their green technological innovation and environmental performance. These findings provide new evidence on how green financial instruments shape firms' strategic behaviour and offer implications for a more effective green finance system.

本研究探讨绿色债券发行对同业企业绿色并购的影响。本文利用2012 - 2022年中国A股上市公司的数据，采用交错DID模型验证了绿色债券发行对同行公司gm& A活动的刺激作用。刺激效应主要来自竞争而非环境处罚压力。绿色债券的发行也提高了高管的环保意识，吸引了同行绿色投资者的更多关注，从而加强了GM&；A活动。对于那些位于环境监管更严格、媒体关注度更高、污染严重的地区的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。此外，GM&；As使同行企业的绿色技术创新和环境绩效显著提高。这些发现为绿色金融工具如何塑造企业的战略行为提供了新的证据，并为建立更有效的绿色金融体系提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

Green taxes, the environment, and the economy: A theoretical analysis using an overlapping generations model with endogenous longevity 绿色税收、环境与经济：基于具有内生寿命的重叠代模型的理论分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107415

Sichao Wei , David Aadland

Green taxes are designed to mitigate the environmental pollution that causes millions of premature deaths worldwide each year. Using an overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous longevity, we examine how environmental conditions influence the effectiveness of green taxes. A key endogenous mechanism links changes in environmental quality to the economy through health effects, shaping the policy–environment boundaries for dynamics and output maximization. The model predicts that regions with low environmental carrying capacity (ECC) and low green tax rates will experience environmental and economic cycles, leading to intergenerational inequality, and fail to maximize output. These cycles can be avoided, and output maximized, if such regions raise their green tax rates. By contrast, in regions with higher ECC, the green tax rate that maximizes output may not eliminate cycles. Our findings provide insights into two dimensions of compatibility: (1) the alignment between policy stringency and environmental conditions, and (2) the compatibility of policy objectives aimed at eliminating cycles and maximizing output.

绿色税旨在减轻每年导致全球数百万人过早死亡的环境污染。利用具有内生寿命的重叠代（OLG）模型，我们研究了环境条件如何影响环保税的有效性。一个关键的内生机制通过健康效应将环境质量的变化与经济联系起来，形成动态和产出最大化的政策-环境边界。该模型预测，低环境承载力（ECC）和低绿色税率的地区将经历环境和经济周期，导致代际不平等，无法实现产出最大化。如果这些地区提高绿色税率，就可以避免这些循环，并实现产出最大化。相比之下，在ECC较高的地区，最大化产出的绿色税率可能不会消除周期。我们的研究结果为兼容性的两个维度提供了见解：(1)政策严格性与环境条件之间的一致性；(2)旨在消除周期和最大化产出的政策目标的兼容性。

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引用次数: 0

Knowledge obsolescence, human capital inequality, and growth: A network perspective in an automated knowledge society 知识过时、人力资本不平等与增长：自动化知识社会的网络视角

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107416

Philipp Tobias Hohn , Torben Klarl

This paper suggests a micro-founded theory of human capital accumulation that is embedded in an endogenous growth model in which rational and cognitively constrained agents allocate time between production and networking activities within a knowledge-diffusion structure. The framework includes three important mechanisms: (i) learning in a knowledge network; (ii) possible skill downgrading due to knowledge obsolescence; and (iii) fear of technological unemployment due to automation. The analysis distinguishes between fully rational agents and cognitively constrained agents, demonstrating that limited cognitive capacity impedes optimal networking behavior and amplifies human capital inequality. Numerical simulations and comparative dynamics further indicate that higher rates of knowledge obsolescence slow human capital accumulation, weaken growth, and disproportionately burden cognitively constrained individuals, potentially trapping the economy in a low-skill, stagnant equilibrium.

本文提出了一种嵌入内生增长模型的微观人力资本积累理论，在内生增长模型中，理性和认知约束的主体在知识扩散结构中在生产和网络活动之间分配时间。该框架包括三个重要机制：(i)在知识网络中学习；（ii）由于知识过时而可能导致的技能降级；（三）对自动化带来的技术性失业的恐惧。该分析区分了完全理性的代理人和认知受限的代理人，表明有限的认知能力阻碍了最优的网络行为并放大了人力资本不平等。数值模拟和比较动态进一步表明，较高的知识过时率会减缓人力资本积累，削弱增长，并给认知受限的个人造成不成比例的负担，可能使经济陷入低技能停滞的均衡状态。

引用次数: 0

Economic policy uncertainty, ESG practices, and investment inefficiency in U.S. firms 美国企业的经济政策不确定性、ESG实践与投资效率低下

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107414

Mahbouba Nasraoui , Aymen Ajina , Fabrice Herve

This study examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences the efficiency of corporate investments and whether strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices impact this relationship. Using data on U.S. firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that higher EPU leads to greater investment inefficiency, including both under- and overinvestment. When faced with uncertainty, firms tend to favor R&D over capital expenditures, reflecting a preference for flexibility. We also show that information asymmetry intensifies the negative impact of uncertainty on investment decisions. Importantly, robust ESG practices help mitigate the adverse impact of EPU by easing financial constraints and reducing information asymmetry. These results highlight the value of ESG as a stabilizing force in uncertain environments. More broadly, the study underscores the importance of integrating ESG considerations into corporate strategies to foster stability and sustainable growth amid evolving economic conditions.

本研究探讨了经济政策不确定性（EPU）如何影响企业投资效率，以及强有力的环境、社会和治理（ESG）实践是否会影响这种关系。利用2010年至2022年美国企业的数据，我们发现较高的EPU导致更大的投资效率低下，包括投资不足和过度投资。当面临不确定性时，公司倾向于支持研发而不是资本支出，这反映了对灵活性的偏好。我们还发现信息不对称加剧了不确定性对投资决策的负面影响。重要的是，稳健的ESG实践通过缓解财务约束和减少信息不对称，有助于减轻EPU的不利影响。这些结果突出了ESG在不确定环境中作为稳定力量的价值。更广泛地说，该研究强调了在不断变化的经济条件下，将ESG因素纳入企业战略以促进稳定和可持续增长的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Buyer preferences for quality in first-sale fish markets 首次销售鱼市场的买家对品质的偏好

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107403

François-Charles Wolff

This paper examines buyers' preferences for quality in French first-sale fish markets. Using data covering 72 million transactions between 2011 and 2022, we first estimate quality premiums with an exact matching procedure that controls for product availability. We then apply interval regression models to explain differences in buyers’ willingness-to-pay for high-quality fish. Results show substantial heterogeneity in quality premiums across both lots and species. Econometric estimates further reveal that quality premiums decline with lot size and vary with buyer characteristics. Retailers and supermarkets pay more for high-quality fish, while wholesalers, processors, and canners are less sensitive to quality. These findings highlight how value from quality is distributed along the supply chain and which types of buyers capture it.

本文考察了法国首次销售鱼市场中买家对质量的偏好。使用涵盖2011年至2022年间7200万笔交易的数据，我们首先通过控制产品可用性的精确匹配程序估算质量溢价。然后，我们应用区间回归模型来解释买家对优质鱼类的支付意愿差异。结果显示，不同批次和物种的质量溢价存在很大的异质性。计量经济学估计进一步表明，质量溢价随批量大小而下降，并随买方特征而变化。零售商和超市为高质量的鱼支付更高的价格，而批发商、加工商和罐头制造商对质量不那么敏感。这些发现强调了质量价值是如何沿着供应链分布的，以及哪些类型的买家获得了质量价值。

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Economic Modelling

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