Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China 通过信贷实现绿色：中国绿色信贷与污染企业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476

Minzhi Wang , Xinxin Guo , Yu Gu

Exploiting China's green credit policy (GCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit on polluting firm dynamics using a difference-in-differences method. We show that the GCP reduces the number of firm entries by 10.1 % and increases the number of firm exits by 9.1 % in polluting industries. Our mechanism analyses further corroborate that the GCP significantly intensifies financing constraints for polluting firms, resulting in increased entry barriers and operational costs. Heterogeneous tests show that the effect is more pronounced in cities with a higher level of marketization or stricter environmental regulation and industries with higher market competition or larger irreversible investments. Additionally, we find that the GCP leads to better-quality entrants with larger scale, higher total factor productivity, and lower pollution discharge intensity. These results imply that the GCP promotes efficient resource allocation, manifested in the transfer of production factors to more productive and cleaner firms.

本文以中国绿色信贷政策为准自然实验，运用差分法考察了绿色信贷对污染企业动态的影响。我们发现，GCP使污染行业的企业进入数量减少了10.1%，退出数量增加了9.1%。我们的机制分析进一步证实，GCP显著加剧了污染企业的融资约束，导致进入壁垒和运营成本增加。异质性检验表明，在市场化程度较高或环境监管较严的城市，以及市场竞争程度较高或不可逆投资较大的行业，这种效应更为明显。此外，我们发现GCP导致了规模更大、全要素生产率更高、污染排放强度更低的优质进入者。这些结果表明，GCP促进了有效的资源配置，表现为生产要素向生产率更高、更清洁的企业转移。

引用次数: 0

Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China 环境规制与企业内部薪酬分配：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474

Feiteng Lin , Wenqiang Chen , Chaosu Qian , Meimeng Lv

Investigating the effects of environmental regulation on income distribution is a crucial extension of assessing the economic impacts of environmental policies. However, the current literature lacks a thorough discussion on how environmental regulation affects income distribution, particularly concerning the pay gap within firms. In this paper, we employ the implementation of China's Key Pollutant-Discharging Units List policy as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms. Our findings indicate that environmental regulation significantly exacerbates the pay gap within firms, as evidenced by increased management compensation and reduced compensation for ordinary employees. Mechanism analysis suggests that governance pressure and financial pressure are potential pathways through which this effect occurs. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the widening effect of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms is more pronounced in non-state-controlled enterprises and firms subject to stringent local regulatory enforcement.

调查环境法规对收入分配的影响是评估环境政策的经济影响的重要延伸。然而，目前的文献缺乏对环境法规如何影响收入分配的深入讨论，特别是关于公司内部的薪酬差距。在本文中，我们采用中国重点排污单位清单政策的实施作为准自然实验来研究环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的影响。我们的研究结果表明，环境监管显著加剧了企业内部的薪酬差距，表现为管理层薪酬的增加和普通员工薪酬的减少。机制分析表明，治理压力和财务压力是这一效应发生的潜在途径。异质性检验表明，环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的扩大效应在非国有控股企业和受到严格地方监管的企业中更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Distrust and disclosure: Greenwashing governance and the neglected incentive withdrawal signals of environmental subsidies 不信任与披露：漂绿治理与被忽视的环境补贴激励退出信号

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462

Tong Yue , Jian Tong , Xinyi Wen , Chengjun Chu

This paper examines how incentive withdrawal signals embedded in environmental subsidies help curb corporate greenwashing. Drawing on information asymmetry theory, we develop a signaling model that captures the strategic interaction between greenwashing and subsidy allocation and validate it using evidence from Chinese firms. We find that greenwashing reduces environmental subsidies by 0.602 %, primarily through two mechanisms: unfulfilled presubsidy environmental commitments and negative spillovers from external evaluations. Positive information disclosure, in turn, enhances government trust. Compared with firms that report strong financial performance or receive favorable external evaluations, poorly performing firms experience larger subsidy reductions of 0.498 %–0.784 % when engaged in greenwashing. These results demonstrate that subsidy withdrawal is an effective tool for governing the “gray area” of greenwashing and underscore the adaptive role of local authorities operating under limited information.

本文考察了环境补贴中的激励退出信号如何有助于遏制企业的“漂绿”行为。利用信息不对称理论，我们建立了一个信号模型，该模型捕捉了漂绿与补贴分配之间的战略相互作用，并使用来自中国企业的证据对其进行了验证。研究发现，“漂绿”使环境补贴减少了0.602%，主要通过两种机制：未履行的补贴前环境承诺和外部评价的负面溢出。积极的信息披露反过来又增强了政府的信任。与财务表现良好或外部评价良好的公司相比，表现不佳的公司在进行“洗绿”时，补贴减少幅度更大，为0.498 % -0.784 %。这些结果表明，取消补贴是治理洗绿“灰色地带”的有效工具，并强调了地方政府在信息有限的情况下运作的适应性作用。

引用次数: 0

Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China 技术发展对老年人就业的影响：来自中国高新技术产业扩张的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464

Xi Luo , Kaidong Jia , Yiming Xia , Guochang Zhao

Technological development and population ageing have been two defining trends in recent decades. However, whether technological advancements reinstate or displace employment opportunities for older workers remains unclear. Using a nationally representative dataset from China and the Bartik instrumental variable approach, we observe that while the overall impact of technological development on employment is estimated to be negative but statistically insignificant, the negative effect intensifies with age and becomes negative beyond the age of approximately 42. We suggest that displacement effects outweigh reinstatement effects, as the negative impact is driven primarily by older adults with lower socioeconomic statuses, who are more vulnerable to job displacement.

近几十年来，技术发展和人口老龄化是两大决定性趋势。然而，技术进步是否恢复或取代了老年工人的就业机会仍不清楚。利用中国具有全国代表性的数据集和Bartik工具变量方法，我们观察到，虽然技术发展对就业的总体影响估计是负面的，但统计上不显著，但这种负面影响随着年龄的增长而加剧，并在大约42岁之后变为负值。我们认为，流离失所效应大于恢复效应，因为负面影响主要是由社会经济地位较低的老年人驱动的，他们更容易受到工作流离失所的影响。

引用次数: 0

Natural disasters and the effects of reconstruction expenditure on output 自然灾害和重建支出对产出的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458

Christos Chrysanthakopoulos , Athanasios Tagkalakis

Using a panel of 116 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies over 1990–2022, we examine the immediate impact of natural disasters on economic activity and public finances, and the medium-term effects of post-disaster reconstruction through public spending. Natural disasters significantly reduce output and worsen fiscal balances, with extreme events causing larger losses than major disasters. Employing a panel local-projection approach combined with instrumental variables and robustness checks, we find that reconstruction spending can effectively promote medium-term growth. Specifically, a 1 % increase in real cyclically adjusted government expenditure after an extreme disaster raises real output by about 2.5 % five years later. The positive effects are stronger in countries with lower public debt, lower trade openness, higher financial development, fixed exchange-rate regimes, and in emerging markets rather than advanced or least developed economies. Effects are also larger in countries with higher old-age dependency ratios and lower reliance on agriculture or tourism.

通过对1990年至2022年间116个发达经济体、新兴市场经济体和发展中经济体的调查，我们研究了自然灾害对经济活动和公共财政的直接影响，以及通过公共支出进行灾后重建的中期影响。自然灾害显著减少产出，恶化财政平衡，极端事件造成的损失大于重大灾害。采用结合工具变量和鲁棒性检验的面板局部预测方法，我们发现重建支出可以有效地促进中期增长。具体来说，一场极端灾难发生后，经周期性调整后的实际政府支出每增加1%，五年后的实际产出就会增加2.5%左右。在公共债务较低、贸易开放程度较低、金融发展程度较高、实行固定汇率制度的国家，以及新兴市场国家，而不是发达经济体或最不发达经济体，积极影响更为强烈。在老年抚养比率较高、对农业或旅游业依赖程度较低的国家，影响也更大。

引用次数: 0

AI strategy, earnings management, and corporate fraud: Evidence from listed firms in China 人工智能战略、盈余管理与企业舞弊：来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460

Liufang Xie , Zhengbo Peng , Xiaoge Tong

This study examines how heterogeneous artificial intelligence (AI) strategies affect corporate fraud, addressing a gap in the literature that has largely focused on AI's governance role from a technological perspective while overlooking firms' underlying adoption motivations. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2023, we distinguish between symbolic and substantive AI strategies and analyze their differential effects on corporate fraud. The results show that symbolic AI adoption significantly increases fraud risk, particularly among highly financialized firms, non-manufacturing firms, and firms operating under high uncertainty, whereas substantive AI adoption has no direct effect on fraud incidence. Mechanism analysis reveals that symbolic AI increases fraud risk indirectly through accrual-based earnings management, suggesting that opportunistic financial reporting constitutes an important transmission mechanism. In addition, we find that non-standard audit opinions significantly weaken the positive association between symbolic AI adoption and corporate fraud, highlighting the disciplinary role of external audit oversight. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of organisational motivation in shaping the economic consequences of AI adoption and offer policy-relevant implications for fostering more rational and transparent use of emerging technologies.

本研究探讨了异质人工智能（AI）策略如何影响企业欺诈，解决了文献中的空白，这些文献主要关注人工智能从技术角度的治理作用，而忽视了公司的潜在采用动机。利用2013年至2023年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，我们区分了象征性和实质性人工智能策略，并分析了它们对公司欺诈的差异影响。结果表明，象征性人工智能的采用显著增加了欺诈风险，特别是在高度金融化的企业、非制造业企业和在高不确定性下运营的企业中，而实质性人工智能的采用对欺诈发生率没有直接影响。机制分析表明，符号人工智能通过权责发生制盈余管理间接增加了欺诈风险，表明机会主义财务报告构成了重要的传导机制。此外，我们发现非标准审计意见显著削弱了象征性人工智能采用与公司舞弊之间的正相关关系，突出了外部审计监督的纪律作用。总的来说，这些发现强调了组织动机在塑造人工智能采用的经济后果方面的重要性，并为促进更合理、更透明地使用新兴技术提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Can place-based digital policy drive corporate digital technology innovation? Evidence from China 基于地点的数字政策能否推动企业数字技术创新？来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107459

Yuan Feng , Changfei Nie

This paper examines the impact of place-based digital policy on corporate digital technology innovation (DTI), addressing an underexplored area in the literature on place-based policies and the drivers of DTI. While prior studies have focused primarily on traditional policy instruments and firm-level characteristics, the role of place-based digital policies in fostering corporate DTI remains insufficiently understood. Exploiting the establishment of national new-generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zones (AIPZs) in China as an exogenous policy shock, and using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal effect of the AIPZs policy on corporate DTI. The results show that the AIPZs policy significantly enhances firms' digital technology innovation. This effect is further strengthened by firms' digital transformation and executives’ digital backgrounds and operates through increased R&D investment, improved human capital, and reduced operating costs. Overall, these findings provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of place-based digital policies and deepen our understanding of policy-driven digital innovation ecosystems.

本文研究了基于地的数字政策对企业数字技术创新（DTI）的影响，解决了关于基于地的政策和DTI驱动因素的文献中未被探索的领域。虽然之前的研究主要集中在传统的政策工具和企业层面的特征上，但基于地点的数字政策在促进企业DTI方面的作用仍然没有得到充分的理解。本文以中国国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区的设立为外生政策冲击，以中国a股上市公司为样本，采用多时期差分法分析了人工智能创新发展试验区政策对企业DTI的因果效应。结果表明：创新园区政策显著促进了企业的数字技术创新。企业的数字化转型和高管的数字化背景进一步强化了这种效应，并通过增加研发投资、改善人力资本和降低运营成本来发挥作用。总体而言，这些发现为基于地方的数字政策的有效性提供了经验证据，并加深了我们对政策驱动的数字创新生态系统的理解。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of fertility on older adults’ healthcare utilization: The roles of health and wealth channels 生育对老年人医疗保健利用的影响：健康渠道和财富渠道的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455

Mingjia Xie , Ting Yin , Yi Zhang , Takashi Oshio

This study investigates how fertility affects healthcare utilization among older adults. Departing from the literature's primary focus on health outcomes, it addresses a key gap in understanding family-level determinants of health spending in aging societies. Using data from rural China and an instrumental variable strategy, we find that having more children increases healthcare utilization and spending, but also the likelihood of forgoing costly inpatient care, reflecting unmet healthcare needs among older adults. The health cost burden is particularly pronounced for women, less-educated parents, and families with limited resources or weak insurance. Two mechanisms explain these effects: the “health channel”, where higher fertility worsens parental health and increases demand for healthcare, and the “wealth channel”, where children provide support that facilitates healthcare use. These findings reveal an overlooked cost of fertility: birth-encouraging policies, while easing demographic pressures, can increase older generations' financial burdens, underscoring the importance of equitable and affordable healthcare.

本研究探讨生育能力如何影响老年人的医疗保健利用。从文献对健康结果的主要关注出发，它解决了在理解老龄化社会中卫生支出的家庭层面决定因素方面的关键差距。使用来自中国农村的数据和工具变量策略，我们发现有更多的孩子会增加医疗保健的利用率和支出，但也有可能放弃昂贵的住院治疗，这反映了老年人未满足的医疗保健需求。对于妇女、受教育程度较低的父母以及资源有限或保险薄弱的家庭来说，医疗费用负担尤其明显。有两种机制可以解释这些影响：“健康渠道”，即较高的生育率使父母的健康恶化并增加对保健的需求；以及“财富渠道”，即儿童提供支助，促进保健的使用。这些发现揭示了一个被忽视的生育成本：鼓励生育的政策在缓解人口压力的同时，可能会增加老一代的经济负担，从而强调了公平和负担得起的医疗保健的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Does corruption trigger political instability? Evidence on the role of demographics and social cohesion 腐败会引发政治不稳定吗？关于人口和社会凝聚力作用的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107456

Nasser Al-Jabri , Shrabani Saha , Neil Campbell , Abbas Ali Gillani

A breakdown in social cohesion and the resulting political instability have adverse consequences for economic development. While corruption can fuel political instability, not all countries experiencing high levels of corruption are politically unstable. Given the growing interest in the role of youth in driving political change, this paper examines whether youth unemployment and the youthfulness of the population (the youth bulge) exacerbate the impact of corruption on political instability. Using panel data for over one hundred countries from 1984 to 2022, the analysis reveals that a youth bulge amplifies the adverse effects of corruption on political instability in oil-exporting countries, compared to non-oil-exporting counterparts. This finding challenges the notion that oil rents can effectively be used to buy off potentially dissatisfied groups.

社会凝聚力的崩溃和由此产生的政治不稳定对经济发展产生不利影响。虽然腐败会加剧政治不稳定，但并非所有经历严重腐败的国家都政治不稳定。鉴于人们越来越关注青年在推动政治变革中的作用，本文探讨了青年失业和人口年轻化（青年膨胀）是否加剧了腐败对政治不稳定的影响。利用1984年至2022年100多个国家的面板数据，分析显示，与非石油出口国相比，石油出口国的年轻人膨胀放大了腐败对政治不稳定的不利影响。这一发现挑战了一种观点，即石油租金可以有效地用来收买潜在的不满群体。

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Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt 杠杆、流动性和投资：公司债务的周期性影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457

Rubén Gonzálvez, Luis Cárdenas

How does corporate debt shape firms’ investment behavior across the business cycle? Using firm-level balance sheet data for Spanish companies over 1997–2019, we estimate a flexible panel data model and a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to identify the causal effect of leverage on investment. We find that leverage stimulates investment before 2008 but strongly contracts it during the post-2008 deleveraging period. After 2008, highly indebted firms reduce their investment rate by 1.8 percentage points more than less indebted firms. This contraction is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, with micro firms cutting their investment rate by 6.3 percentage points and firms in construction showing particularly strong declines. In contrast, investment by large firms remains comparatively stable. The results underscore the procyclical nature of corporate debt and suggest the importance of closely monitoring firm leverage and liquidity conditions, particularly for SMEs, during periods of economic expansion and contraction.

企业债务如何影响企业在整个经济周期中的投资行为？利用西班牙公司1997-2019年的企业资产负债表数据，我们估计了一个灵活的面板数据模型和双重稳健的差异中差异设计，以确定杠杆对投资的因果影响。我们发现，在2008年之前，杠杆会刺激投资，但在2008年之后的去杠杆时期，杠杆会强烈收缩投资。2008年以后，高负债企业的投资率比低负债企业高1.8个百分点。收缩主要集中在中小企业，其中微型企业投资率下降6.3个百分点，建筑业降幅尤为明显。相比之下，大公司的投资相对稳定。研究结果强调了企业债务的顺周期性质，并表明在经济扩张和收缩期间密切监测企业杠杆率和流动性状况的重要性，尤其是对中小企业而言。

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