Economic Modelling最新文献

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Producing more, reproducing less: The demographic costs of China's export success 生产更多，再生产更少：中国出口成功的人口成本

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107440

Yumeng Yang, Yunong Li, Han Sheng, Mao Zhou

This study investigates the impact of export growth on fertility, coinciding with the abolition of the One-child Policy and subsequent relaxation of birth control policies in China. Using micro-level survey data, we employ a shift-share instrumental variables strategy to examine the causal effects. Our analysis reveals that married women residing in prefectures with greater export growth are significantly less likely to give birth. Additional analysis shows that export growth raises married women's wages, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of fertility and shifting household resource allocation by reducing maternal time devoted to childcare while boosting monetary investment in children's education. Social norms also emerge as an essential channel. These findings offer new insights into how economic development shapes demographic outcomes and provide implications for developing more women-supportive environments that reconcile labor market participation with family formation.

本研究调查了出口增长对生育率的影响，恰逢中国取消独生子女政策和随后放松生育控制政策。利用微观层面的调查数据，我们采用了偏移份额工具变量策略来检验因果关系。我们的分析显示，居住在出口增长较大的县的已婚妇女生育的可能性明显较低。其他分析表明，出口增长提高了已婚妇女的工资，从而增加了生育的机会成本，并通过减少母亲用于育儿的时间来转移家庭资源配置，同时增加了对儿童教育的货币投资。社会规范也是一个重要的渠道。这些发现为经济发展如何影响人口结果提供了新的见解，并为发展更多支持妇女的环境提供了启示，这些环境将劳动力市场参与与家庭形成协调起来。

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the role of digital finance in technological catch-up: A multisector growth model with firm-level evidence 揭示数字金融在技术追赶中的作用：一个具有企业层面证据的多部门增长模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107437

Hao Xu

This study develops a multisector endogenous growth model to examine how digital finance affects latecomer firms' technological catch-up and empirically tests this relationship using Chinese firm-level panel data from 2011 to 2023. The results show that digital finance promotes catch-up by reducing financial capital misallocation, enhancing knowledge spillover, and strengthening entrepreneurial innovation spirit. This effect is stronger for latecomer firms operating in industries where frontier firms hold greater structural advantages, those facing a larger frontier knowledge gap, those emphasizing substantive innovation strategies, and those in regions with more developed digital industries. In addition, intellectual property protection exerts a nonlinear moderating effect, first reinforcing and then diminishing digital finance's influence on technological catch-up. Overall, the findings deepen understanding of digital finance's role and offer policy insights for building a fair innovation ecosystem that supports inclusive growth.

本研究建立了一个多部门内生增长模型来检验数字金融如何影响后发企业的技术追赶，并使用2011年至2023年的中国企业层面面板数据对这种关系进行了实证检验。结果表明，数字金融通过减少金融资本错配、增强知识外溢、增强创业创新精神等方式促进赶超。对于处于前沿企业结构优势较大的行业、前沿知识差距较大的行业、强调实质性创新战略的行业以及数字产业发达地区的后发企业，这种效应更强。此外，知识产权保护具有非线性调节作用，先增强后减弱数字金融对技术追赶的影响。总体而言，研究结果加深了对数字金融作用的理解，并为建立支持包容性增长的公平创新生态系统提供了政策见解。

引用次数: 0

International spillovers of US monetary policy on inequality 美国货币政策对不平等的国际溢出效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439

Pradyumna Dash , Ankit Kumar , Chetan Subramanian

This study investigates the effects of U.S. monetary policy on income inequality in open economies from 1970 to 2016. We find that a 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate leads to a cumulative reduction of about 0.15% in income inequality over three years. Interestingly, we show that the effect of US monetary policy on inequality varies over time. The impact also varies by exchange rate regime: in flexible regimes, the reduction can reach nearly 0.3%, while in pegged regimes, it diminishes to around 0.13%. This impact in pegged regimes is influenced by wage rigidity and labor market regulations in the economy. To explain these results, we develop a two-agent small open economy model that incorporates rigid wages, highlighting the link between monetary policy and inequality dynamics.

本研究调查了1970年至2016年开放经济体中美国货币政策对收入不平等的影响。我们发现，联邦基金利率每提高100个基点，三年内收入不平等就会累计减少约0.15%。有趣的是，我们表明，美国货币政策对不平等的影响随时间而变化。影响也因汇率制度而异：在灵活的汇率制度下，降幅可达近0.3%，而在钉住汇率制度下，降幅降至0.13%左右。钉住汇率制度的这种影响受到经济中工资刚性和劳动力市场监管的影响。为了解释这些结果，我们开发了一个包含刚性工资的双代理小型开放经济模型，突出了货币政策与不平等动态之间的联系。

引用次数: 0

Environmental regulation, green innovation, and productivity: Crowding-out or reallocation? 环境监管、绿色创新与生产力：挤出还是再配置？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107418

Yi Jiang (伊江) , Richard S.J. Tol

Does environmental regulation enhance firm productivity through reallocation toward green innovation, conditional on firms' pollution intensity and productivity levels? We analyze Chinese listed firms (2010–2018) using a Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse recursive framework, a three-equation causal chain that links regulation, innovation, and productivity. We find that a variety of environmental policies raise compliance costs, crowding-out average R&D investment. Non-green innovation yields higher productivity returns in low-pollution firms and exhibits a U-shaped return pattern across the productivity distribution, whereas green innovation's returns follow an inverted-U-shaped profile, peaking at medium-high productivity—where, for high-pollution firms, they exceed those of non-green innovation, boosting TFP. These results provide mechanism-based evidence for the strong Porter hypothesis as a context-dependent reconfiguration of technological and productive efficiency under regulatory stimuli. Policy support for green innovation should be targeted at high-pollution, mid-to-high-productivity firms based on verifiable outcomes, turning the crowding-out of R&D into productive reallocation.

环境监管是否通过对绿色创新的再配置来提高企业生产率，这取决于企业的污染强度和生产率水平？我们使用cr - duguet - mairesse递归框架（一个连接监管、创新和生产率的三方程因果链）对中国上市公司（2010-2018）进行了分析。我们发现，各种环境政策提高了合规成本，挤出了平均研发投资。在低污染企业中，非绿色创新的生产率回报更高，在生产率分布上呈现u型回报模式，而绿色创新的回报遵循倒u型曲线，在中高生产率处达到峰值，在高污染企业中，它们超过了非绿色创新的回报，从而提高了全要素生产率。这些结果为强有力的波特假设提供了基于机制的证据，即在监管刺激下技术和生产效率的情境依赖重构。绿色创新的政策支持应基于可验证的结果，针对高污染、中高生产率的企业，将研发的挤出转化为生产力的再配置。

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引用次数: 0

Matching for three: The search activities of workers, firms, and employment services 匹配三：工人、企业和就业服务的搜索活动

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434

Tobias Hartl , Christian Hutter , Enzo Weber

The standard labour market matching function neglects a substantial variation of hirings. A crucial driver of this latent part is the search intensity of job seekers and firms, as well as the placement intensity of employment agencies. However, there is still a lack of integration of all three search and placement intensities into a unified theoretical framework. Their combined labour market effects have not been estimated so far. We feed all three intensities into the theoretical framework of a labour market matching function to estimate their impact on the job finding rate – effects which are not settled a priori. This could provide important stylised facts for subsequent theory building. For measuring the search and placement intensities, we use big data on online activity obtained from the job exchange of the German Federal Employment Agency and from its internal placement-software. The results show that all three intensities significantly contribute to the variation in job findings beyond vacancies and unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, reduced search intensities accounted for 44 percent of lost hirings and 16 percent of the labour market related increase in unemployment.

标准的劳动力市场匹配函数忽略了雇佣的实质性变化。这一潜在部分的关键驱动因素是求职者和企业的搜索强度，以及职业介绍所的安置强度。然而，目前还没有将这三种搜索和安置强度整合成一个统一的理论框架。迄今为止，它们对劳动力市场的综合影响尚未得到估计。我们将这三种强度输入到劳动力市场匹配函数的理论框架中，以估计它们对求职率的影响——这些影响不是先验的。这可以为后续的理论构建提供重要的程式化事实。为了衡量求职和就业的强度，我们使用了来自德国联邦就业局（German Federal Employment Agency）的职业交流及其内部就业软件的在线活动大数据。结果表明，除了空缺和失业率之外，这三种强度都显著影响了就业结果的变化。在2019冠状病毒病危机期间，搜索强度的降低占失业人数的44%，占劳动力市场相关失业人数的16%。

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引用次数: 0

Imported intangible capital and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from 42 economies 进口无形资本与部门经济增长：来自42个经济体的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429

Shuyue Liu, Radhika Lahiri, Annastiina Silvennoinen

This paper investigates the impact of imported intangible capital on value added. While existing studies confirm the importance of intangible capital for growth, its distinct effects by source, imported versus domestic, remain underexplored. Using data from the World Input-Output Database for 2000–2014, we employ a two-way fixed effects model to estimate both long- and short-term impacts. The results show that intangible capital generally increases value added in the long run but reduces it in the short run due to adjustment costs before productivity gains are realised. Moreover, imported intangibles exert stronger negative short-term effects than domestic ones. However, this pattern reverses after the global financial crisis, suggesting that multinational firms are more resilient to shocks. These findings provide new insights into the role of intangible capital on economic growth and imply the need for institutional reform and financial support to minimise short-term adjustment costs.

本文研究了进口无形资本对增加价值的影响。虽然现有的研究证实了无形资本对增长的重要性，但其不同来源（进口与国内）的不同影响仍未得到充分探讨。利用2000-2014年世界投入产出数据库的数据，我们采用双向固定效应模型来估计长期和短期影响。研究结果表明，无形资本在长期总体上增加了企业的增加值，但在短期内由于生产力收益实现前的调整成本而降低了企业的增加值。此外，进口无形资产的短期负面效应强于国内无形资产。然而，在全球金融危机之后，这种模式发生了逆转，这表明跨国公司对冲击的抵御能力更强。这些发现为无形资本对经济增长的作用提供了新的见解，并暗示需要进行制度改革和金融支持，以尽量减少短期调整成本。

引用次数: 0

When the bordering levee breaks: The impact of floods on corporate financialization in China 当堤防决口：洪水对中国企业金融化的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107432

Ziqing Wu , Leyi Chen , Lingpeng Shi

This paper investigates the impact of floods on corporate financialization in China. We find that flood shocks significantly increase corporate financialization by firms in non-disaster areas within the same prefecture-level city. Mechanism analysis shows that lower financing costs and expanded financing sizes are the main drivers. This suggests that local governments reallocate resources to support unaffected regions during adverse shocks, yet part of this support is channeled into financial assets rather than productive investments. Further analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced with the severity of floods and for large firms. Our findings reveal a critical unintended consequence of government intervention in disaster response, highlighting the need for policy designs that guard against such financial resource misallocation. This study enriches our understanding of how adverse shocks affect corporate financial strategies.

本文研究了洪水对中国企业金融化的影响。我们发现，洪水冲击显著增加了同一地级市内非灾区企业的企业金融化。机制分析表明，融资成本降低和融资规模扩大是主要驱动因素。这表明，在不利冲击期间，地方政府重新配置资源，以支持未受影响的地区，但其中一部分支持流向了金融资产，而非生产性投资。进一步的分析表明，这种影响随着洪水的严重程度和对大公司的影响更为明显。我们的研究结果揭示了政府干预灾害应对的一个关键的意外后果，强调了防止此类财政资源错配的政策设计的必要性。本研究丰富了我们对不利冲击如何影响企业财务战略的理解。

引用次数: 0

What drives growth transitions in India? Evidence from a Markov switching analysis of regime dynamics 是什么推动了印度的增长转型？来自制度动力学的马尔可夫转换分析的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107426

Vineeta Sharma

Growth transitions in India, identified through structural break models, often yield break dates closely aligned with recession periods. Since recessions have been found to be associated with persistent output losses, this underscores the regime dependent nature of output dynamics. This paper examines growth transitions in India as cyclical regime shifts, employing a Markov switching framework to identify three growth regimes - recessionary, moderate, and high growth during 1951–2022. It further examines the influence of domestic, external, and policy variables on regime-specific growth and transition probabilities. Results indicate that investment, productivity gains, and accommodative monetary policy drive growth during moderate regimes. However, rapid credit expansion and rising income inequality undermine high growth sustainability. While investment and monetary easing support recovery from recessions, fiscal policy is effective primarily in high-growth periods and is counterproductive during downturns. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these results across alternative model specifications and sample periods.

通过结构性断裂模型确定的印度的增长转型，往往与衰退时期密切相关。由于经济衰退已被发现与持续的产出损失有关，这突显了产出动态的制度依赖性质。本文考察了印度在周期性体制转变过程中的增长转型，采用马尔可夫转换框架确定了1951-2022年期间的三种增长体制——衰退、温和和高增长。它进一步研究了国内、外部和政策变量对特定政权的增长和过渡概率的影响。结果表明，在温和体制下，投资、生产率提高和宽松的货币政策推动了经济增长。然而，信贷快速扩张和收入不平等加剧削弱了高增长的可持续性。虽然投资和货币宽松政策支持经济从衰退中复苏，但财政政策主要在高增长时期有效，在经济低迷时期适得其反。鲁棒性检查确认了这些结果在不同模型规格和样本周期中的稳定性。

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引用次数: 0

The dark side of environmental judicial specialization: Corporate labor income share in China 环境司法专业化的黑暗面：中国企业劳动收入占比

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107435

Lianchao Yu , Lele Zhu , Jinting Dong

Although prior research has largely emphasized the benefits of environmental judicial specialization, its potential adverse effects remain understudied. Using a multiperiod difference-in-differences design within the quasi-experimental setting of China's environmental court establishment (ECE), this study examines how ECE influences corporate labor income share (CLIS). The findings show that ECE significantly reduces CLIS. Decomposition analysis indicates that although ECE raises labor productivity, it does not generate corresponding increases in employee compensation, thereby suppressing CLIS. Mechanism analysis shows that ECE promotes investment structure optimization and technological innovation but simultaneously encourages capital-biased income allocation that further reduces CLIS. Cross-sectional evidence reveals that the negative effect is stronger in regions with weaker wage bargaining power; in capital-intensive, highly competitive, and heavily polluting industries; and among privately owned firms and those with poorer social responsibility performance. Governance mechanism analysis demonstrates that the employee director system and employee stock ownership plan can mitigate this adverse influence. Overall, the study uncovers overlooked distributional consequences of environmental judicial specialization and identifies effective compensatory governance mechanisms.

虽然先前的研究在很大程度上强调了环境司法专业化的好处，但其潜在的不利影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究采用中国环境法院设立（ECE）的准实验设置下的多期差异设计，考察了ECE如何影响企业劳动收入份额（CLIS）。研究结果表明，ECE可显著降低CLIS。分解分析表明，ECE虽然提高了劳动生产率，但并没有相应提高员工薪酬，从而抑制了CLIS。机制分析表明，欧洲经济合作促进了投资结构优化和技术创新，但同时鼓励了资本偏倚的收入分配，从而进一步降低了CLIS。横断面证据显示，工资议价能力越弱的地区，负面效应越强；在资本密集、竞争激烈、污染严重的行业；在私营企业和社会责任表现较差的企业中也是如此。治理机制分析表明，员工董事制度和员工持股计划可以缓解这一不利影响。总体而言，研究揭示了被忽视的环境司法专业化的分配后果，并确定了有效的补偿治理机制。

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From activism to efficiency: Does ESG shareholder engagement mitigate credit misallocation? 从激进主义到效率：ESG股东参与能否缓解信贷错配？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107436

Tayier Tudi , Mingjie Ni

This study investigates whether and how ESG shareholder engagement enhances the efficiency of corporate credit allocation in China. Using panel data on non-financial listed firms from 2008 to 2022, we find that greater equity ownership by ESG mutual funds significantly mitigates corporate credit misallocation. Guided by information asymmetry and agency theories, the results indicate that ESG investors improve credit allocation efficiency by easing financing constraints and enhancing investment efficiency. The effects are more pronounced in firms with stronger internal governance and higher transparency, but weaker in those facing severe information frictions. Overall, the evidence underscores that ESG-driven external governance complements internal control mechanisms and contributes to more efficient capital allocation. Strengthening ESG investment and disclosure practices can therefore foster financial efficiency and promote sustainable economic growth in emerging markets.

本研究探讨ESG股东参与是否以及如何提高中国企业信用配置效率。利用2008年至2022年非金融类上市公司的面板数据，我们发现ESG共同基金的股权持有量增加显著缓解了企业信贷错配。在信息不对称理论和代理理论的指导下，结果表明ESG投资者通过缓解融资约束和提高投资效率来提高信贷配置效率。这种效应在内部治理较强、透明度较高的公司中更为明显，而在信息摩擦严重的公司中则较弱。总体而言，证据强调，esg驱动的外部治理是对内部控制机制的补充，有助于提高资本配置效率。因此，加强ESG投资和信息披露实践可以提高金融效率，促进新兴市场的可持续经济增长。

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