Economic Modelling最新文献

This study analyzes intergenerational income mobility in Southern Brazil. Previous research has demonstrated that Brazil continues to be one of the least mobile countries in the world; however, the country has experienced strong socioeconomic advances in recent decades that may have affected mobility. The use of data from the 1982 birth cohort in the city of Pelotas, in the extreme south of Brazil, makes this one of the first studies to estimate mobility using direct observations of parental and filial income in Brazil. Using various estimation techniques, the results reveal relatively high income mobility compared with past Brazilian standards. Mobility is higher for nonwhites, extremely similar across genders, and higher among the poor. The findings indicate that increased government investment in education and reduced returns to education in recent decades are possible channels.

China hosts the world’s largest secondary education sector: more than 14 million adolescents enrol in secondary academic and vocational schools every year. Despite the large literature on returns to education, little evidence exists as to how these two streams compare in the country. Using 2013 China Household Income Project data, we estimate the returns to secondary vocational education both at the mean and along the conditional wage distribution. We use instrumental variables based on the considerable variation in education provision across cities and years (and a 1995 policy reform). We find that vocational education generates a large wage premium (up to 54%), especially for those of lower earnings potential. Our findings indicate that vocational education can be a good option for those who do not wish to enter tertiary education, especially the less well-off.

Since the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, preventing financial crises has become one of the most important objectives of regulators and banks. Although previous studies have identified the phenomenon of risk contagion in the banking system, the underlying mechanisms of risk contagion are still unclear. This study delves into the multi-stage contagion mechanism of liquidity risk based on interbank lending linkages and clearing rules and introduces a new index to quantify bank liquidity risk. We find that the contagion of liquidity risk is primarily determined by the network structure of risk exposures between banks in default and is not significantly influenced by the lending relationships of banks that remain solvent. The empirical results suggest that banks with high risk should be prioritized for cash injections to improve system liquidity. These findings offer new insights into financial risk contagion and practical recommendations for regulatory authorities formulating intervention strategies and for banks conducting risk management.

The impact of the environmental tax on internal income distribution within firms is a crucial extension for evaluating the economic effects of environmental regulation policies. However, the existing literature focuses primarily on environmental effects and the Porter hypothesis, giving little attention to this topic. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2018 to 2021, we examine how the Chinese environmental protection tax affects intrafirm wage disparities. Our findings indicate that the environmental tax widens the pay gap between managerial and ordinary employees. Mechanism tests show that the environmental tax's governance effect raises managerial compensation levels, whereas cost effects decrease wages for ordinary employees. This effect is particularly pronounced in nonstate-owned firms, competitive industries, and regions with stricter environmental tax collection standards. This study makes an empirical contribution to our understanding of the effects of the environmental tax on income distribution in practice.

For decades, fiscal decentralization and gross domestic product growth targeting have resulted in fierce economic competition among local governments in China, putting tremendous economic competitive pressure on them. The latter has serious social and economic implications and is a major issue for policymakers. This study analyzes data from China's 30 provinces for 2011–2021. It demonstrates that digital economic development could considerably reduce economic, competitive pressure on local governments, with trade openness and entrepreneurial dynamism serving as impact mechanisms. This study also found that the alleviating effects are more pronounced in regions with a poor innovation environment, a less developed economy, or lagging human resources. These findings emphasize the important role of the digital economy in increasing regional competitiveness and reducing regional disparities.

The determinants of inflation rates have been extensively studied with no clear consensus. Recent research highlights the growing influence of global supply factors, notably supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks. This paper analyzes the changing impact of these global supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks, compared to demand shocks, on inflation rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. from 1998 to 2022. The findings reveal that since the mid-2010s, supply shocks have become the predominant drivers of inflation. After the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price shocks significantly affected inflation in Germany, the U.K., and the U.S., while the influence of global supply chain disruptions on inflation in all four countries surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study examines the dynamics of labor force participation rates across counties in West Virginia to better understand local labor market integration and the factors influencing fluctuations in participation. Drawing on county-level data from January 1990 to July 2020, the research employs a dynamic factor model to decompose labor force participation rates into latent factors at the state, metropolitan/non-metropolitan, and county levels. The findings reveal a general lack of labor market integration across West Virginia, highlighting potential opportunities for growth through enhanced integration. Further analysis using panel data models identifies key determinants of labor force participation, including personal income, education, infrastructure, and the prominence of industries such as agriculture and natural gas. The results underscore the necessity for targeted county-level policies to bolster employment and promote economic expansion within the state.

Determining how economic growth affects tax revenues is crucial for fiscal sustainability, economic stabilization, and policy design. The current literature on tax buoyancy presents contrasting estimates, highlighting the need for a systematic discussion of the trade-offs associated with different estimators. This paper provides new empirical evidence by reviewing a range of panel data estimators in a large sample of 172 countries from 1990 to 2019. We find evidence of lower estimates for tax responses to economic activity in the short term relative to previous literature, suggesting a limited automatic stabilization power of tax systems. The heterogeneity in our results within and across income groups underscores the importance of choosing the appropriate estimator. Our results remain broadly unchanged when we introduce new control variables to disentangle discretionary from automatic tax revenue variations, indicating that economic cycles do not significantly influence the timing of tax policies.

Chief executive officers (CEOs) are the leaders of corporate innovation, but little is known about which types of CEOs are more conducive to digital technology innovation. Based on Chinese listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2020, we examine the effect of the information technology (IT) background of CEOs on digital technological innovation. The results show that CEOs' IT backgrounds significantly promote digital technology innovation. Curbing managerial myopia is the mechanism involved while strengthening digital sensemaking does not exist. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the facilitating role of CEOs' IT background is more pronounced when their power is more extensive, the company is nonstate-owned, mature, and large, and the region is highly marketized. Our findings contribute to the literature on the impact of executive characteristics on innovation and provide a reference for companies to promote digital technology innovation through the employment of specific CEOs.

Interregional capital mobility is crucial for high-quality development. Existing literature highlights the role of geographical and boundary effects on interregional investment, but often overlooks cultural differences. Using administrative records of business registration data covering nearly 200 million firms in mainland China from 2005 to 2022, we construct a novel panel data on interregional investment networks and reveal that surname distance as a metric of cultural differences significantly inhibits interregional investment, with elasticities of −0.955 and −0.713 on the amount and quantity, respectively. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that increased surname distance heightens survival risks, shortens market duration, and leads to more litigation for firms investing in culturally distant regions. This impact intensifies over time, is more significant in regions with low marketization levels, and has a pronounced effect on intraprovincial investments.