Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Media ESG sentiment and the cost of debt: Evidence from China 媒体ESG情绪与债务成本：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107398

Guoying Deng, Qiyun Deng, Jingzhou Yan

This study investigates how media ESG sentiment affects corporate cost of debt. Existing literature primarily focuses on firms’ own ESG performance and disclosure, with limited attention to the role of media ESG coverage in corporate financing. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies covering 2007–2022, we develop a theoretical model and empirically examine this relationship. We find that positive media ESG sentiment significantly reduces corporate cost of debt by 3.76% for a one-standard-deviation increase. Our analysis reveals that media sentiment operates through three distinct channels: reducing information asymmetry, enhancing investor confidence, and facilitating support from policy-oriented banks. Cross-sectionally, the effect is more pronounced for firms with lower social reputation, higher ESG rating dispersion, inadequate ESG disclosure, smaller size and non-SOEs. These findings offer new insights into how external information intermediaries shape sustainable finance markets and provide implications for improving ESG information systems in emerging economies.

本研究探讨媒体ESG情绪如何影响企业债务成本。现有文献主要关注企业自身的ESG绩效和信息披露，对媒体ESG报道在企业融资中的作用关注有限。利用中国a股上市公司2007-2022年的数据，我们建立了一个理论模型，并对这种关系进行了实证检验。我们发现，积极的媒体ESG情绪在一个标准差的增长下，显著降低了企业债务成本3.76%。我们的分析表明，媒体情绪通过三个不同的渠道发挥作用：减少信息不对称，增强投资者信心，促进政策性银行的支持。从横截面上看，社会声誉较低、ESG评级分散程度较高、ESG信息披露不充分、规模较小和非国有企业的影响更为明显。这些发现为了解外部信息中介机构如何塑造可持续金融市场提供了新的见解，并为改善新兴经济体的ESG信息系统提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

China’s technological rise and its global welfare effects 中国的技术崛起及其全球福利效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407

Hui Li , Wenzhuo Lu , Aoxin Wang , Xiaochen Xie

This paper examines how China’s technological progress has evolved since 1979 and its impact on global welfare. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model and data from the 50 largest economies, we estimate China’s technological trajectory over time. Although China still trails world leaders such as the United States, it has substantially closed the gap with advanced economies. Counterfactual analysis shows that had China’s technology remained at its WTO accession level, global trade gains would be 3.47% lower. Conversely, a 2.5% reduction in trade costs under the Belt and Road Initiative could raise welfare gains from China’s progress by 2.92%. Projections suggest that continued upgrading, together with China’s economic scale, will further shape global trade outcomes. The results highlight both the opportunities and challenges China’s technological trajectory poses for the world economy.

本文考察了中国自1979年以来的技术进步及其对全球福利的影响。使用多国李嘉图贸易模型和来自50个最大经济体的数据，我们估计了中国随时间的技术轨迹。虽然中国仍然落后于美国等世界领先国家，但它已经大大缩小了与发达经济体的差距。反事实分析表明，如果中国的技术水平保持在加入WTO时的水平，全球贸易收益将降低3.47%。相反，在“一带一路”倡议下，贸易成本每降低2.5%，中国的福利收益就会提高2.92%。预测表明，持续升级加上中国的经济规模，将进一步影响全球贸易结果。研究结果凸显了中国的技术发展轨迹给世界经济带来的机遇和挑战。

引用次数: 0

Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China 公共数据开放能减少边界污染吗？来自中国省际相邻城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405

Peiyu Li , Hanmei Zhou , Xinzhi Liu , Liping Li

Boundary regions face persistent challenges in pollution control due to fragmented regulatory responsibilities and weak coordination. Public data openness (PDO) offers a new avenue for addressing boundary pollution (BP) by reducing market barriers and strengthening collaborative governance. Using China's PDO rollout as a quasinatural experiment and drawing on data from interprovincial neighboring cities, this study evaluates PDO's impact on BP. The results show that PDO significantly lowers BP without causing pollution displacement, primarily by promoting market integration and intensifying environmental constraints. Its effectiveness also varies according to officials' characteristics, local governance capacity, and the degree of interregional coordination. Analysis of platform data features further indicates that improving data utilization and expanding economic and environmental datasets are crucial for maximizing policy effectiveness. Additional evidence reveals that PDO brings notable economic benefits. Overall, these findings broaden the understanding of PDO and offer important insights for advancing cross-regional environmental governance.

由于监管责任分散、协调不力，边界地区在污染治理方面面临持续挑战。公共数据开放（PDO）通过减少市场壁垒和加强协作治理，为解决边界污染（BP）提供了新的途径。本研究以中国推出PDO作为准自然实验，并借鉴省际相邻城市的数据，评估了PDO对BP的影响。结果表明，PDO主要通过促进市场一体化和强化环境约束，在不造成污染置换的情况下显著降低BP；其有效性也因官员的特点、地方治理能力和区域间协调程度而异。对平台数据特征的分析进一步表明，提高数据利用率和扩大经济和环境数据集对于最大限度地提高政策有效性至关重要。其他证据表明，PDO带来了显著的经济效益。总体而言，这些发现拓宽了对PDO的理解，并为推进跨区域环境治理提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Environmentally conscious consumers and voluntary tax agreements: A case of dissonance 有环保意识的消费者和自愿税收协议：一个不协调的案例

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107406

Christos Constantatos , Apostolos Ioannis Martis

We consider voluntary agreements (VAs) in which a firm agrees to an abatement level, expecting mild emissions tax rate in return. VAs are credible if the regulator offers a time-consistent menu relating emissions tax rates to abatement, and the firm chooses its abatement and tax rate from this menu. This VA type can be problematic when consumers are environmentally conscious. As consumers’ social responsibility (SR) increases, the regulator demands a lower tax rate independent of the firm’s abatement efforts: the regulator has little to offer regarding tax-rate reductions even at moderate SR levels. Credible VAs are typically considered superior to mandatory taxation; however, for sufficiently high SR levels, mandatory taxation is superior in terms of environmental protection and welfare.

我们考虑自愿协议（VAs），其中企业同意减排水平，期望以温和的排放税率作为回报。如果监管机构提供了一个与减排有关的时间一致的排放税率菜单，并且企业从该菜单中选择减排和税率，那么VAs是可信的。当消费者有环保意识时，这种VA类型可能会有问题。随着消费者社会责任（SR）的增加，监管机构要求较低的税率，而不依赖于企业的减排努力：即使在适度的社会责任水平上，监管机构对税率降低也几乎没有什么可提供的。可信的增值税通常被认为优于强制性税收；然而，对于足够高的SR水平，强制征税在环境保护和福利方面是优越的。

引用次数: 0

Does innovation policy promote innovation? Evidence from innovation targets in China's five-year plans 创新政策促进创新吗？中国五年计划的创新目标就是证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107401

Xianbin Wang , Xitian Zheng , Dan Cao

Understanding how governments foster innovation remains a central issue in economic development. This paper investigates China's innovation-target-setting policy in prefecture-level cities' Five-Year Plans and its role in regional innovation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find robust evidence that target setting significantly increases invention patent applications. The effect operates mainly through higher fiscal expenditure on science and technology and greater public procurement of innovative products. The impact is particularly strong in cities facing greater economic growth target pressure, indicating that innovation and growth targets are complementary rather than conflicting. Further analysis shows that innovation targets improve patent quality, encourage collaborative research and development, and promote intercity knowledge spillovers. At the industry and firm levels, they stimulate innovation in leading and strategic emerging sectors and support the growth of gazelle, unicorn, and high-tech enterprises. Overall, institutionalized, target-driven policies can mobilize local governments to address market failures and advance innovation-led growth.

了解政府如何促进创新仍然是经济发展的一个核心问题。本文研究了中国地级市五年规划创新目标设定政策及其在区域创新中的作用。使用差异中的差异框架，我们发现了强有力的证据，表明目标设定显著增加了发明专利申请。这种效果主要是通过增加财政科技支出和增加政府采购创新产品来实现的。在面临更大经济增长目标压力的城市，这种影响尤其强烈，这表明创新和增长目标是相辅相成的，而不是相互冲突的。进一步分析表明，创新目标提高了专利质量，鼓励了协同研发，促进了城际知识溢出。在行业和企业层面，它们激发了领先和战略性新兴行业的创新，支持了羚羊、独角兽和高科技企业的成长。总体而言，制度化、目标导向的政策可以动员地方政府解决市场失灵问题，推进创新导向的增长。

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引用次数: 0

Minimum wage and enterprise digital transformation: Evidence from China 最低工资与企业数字化转型：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107404

Yuhong Huang , Hui Cai

The impact of minimum wage policies on technological transformation remains inconclusive. Although the literature suggests that minimum wage adjustments affect corporate innovation, it lacks a focus on the recent rise of digital technological transformation. Using data from Chinese firms, we find that increasing minimum wages significantly hinder digitalization, particularly in regions with stricter enforcement, industries facing intense competition, and firms that are labor intensive, financially constrained, or whose employees possess weak bargaining power. We identify two plausible channels of impact, namely, the production-scale contraction effect and the risk-bearing capacity weakening effect. Furthermore, government incentives for digital adoption help mitigate the negative impact, and the effect of the minimum wage on digitalization is found to be nonlinear. This study highlights that in countries with underdeveloped labor market institutions, stronger labor protection may unintentionally obstruct enterprise upgrading. This suggests that minimum wage policies should balance labor protection with promoting technological progress.

最低工资政策对技术转型的影响仍然没有定论。虽然文献表明最低工资调整影响企业创新，但缺乏对最近兴起的数字技术转型的关注。利用来自中国企业的数据，我们发现提高最低工资严重阻碍了数字化，特别是在执法严格的地区、面临激烈竞争的行业、劳动密集型企业、财务受限或员工议价能力弱的企业。我们确定了两种可能的影响渠道，即生产规模收缩效应和风险承受能力减弱效应。此外，政府对数字化采用的激励有助于减轻负面影响，最低工资对数字化的影响是非线性的。本研究强调，在劳动力市场制度不发达的国家，加强劳动保护可能会在无意中阻碍企业升级。这表明，最低工资政策应该平衡劳动保护与促进技术进步。

引用次数: 0

State-owned capital participation and customer concentration in private firms: Evidence from China 国有资本参与与民营企业客户集中度：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107402

Jie Wang , Wanli Li

Using data from Chinese listed firms between 2007 and 2023, this study examines how state-owned capital participation affects the customer concentration of private firms. We find that state-owned capital participation helps reduce the customer concentration of private firms, which is more pronounced in lower-market-oriented regions and under higher economic policy uncertainty. Mechanism tests show that state-owned capital participation influences customer concentration by enhancing corporate reputation, strengthening financing capacity, increasing government procurement, and reducing information asymmetry. We also find that state-owned capital participation can strengthen market position, reduce operational risks, and enhance supply chain resilience for private firms. Overall, the study provides novel evidence on the determinants of customer concentration from an institutional perspective, highlighting the important role of ownership structure in shaping firms’ customer relationships.

本文利用2007 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，考察了国有资本参与对民营企业客户集中度的影响。研究发现，国有资本参与有助于降低民营企业的客户集中度，这在市场导向较低的地区和经济政策不确定性较高的地区更为明显。机制检验表明，国有资本参与通过提高企业声誉、增强融资能力、增加政府采购和减少信息不对称影响客户集中度。我们还发现，国有资本参与可以增强民营企业的市场地位，降低经营风险，增强供应链弹性。总体而言，该研究从制度角度提供了关于客户集中度决定因素的新证据，强调了所有权结构在塑造公司客户关系中的重要作用。

引用次数: 0

The fiscal policy blend and its impact on sectoral growth: The case of Greece 财政政策组合及其对部门增长的影响：以希腊为例

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107395

Andreas Zervas , Dimitrios Thomakos

We investigate how different types of government spending and total taxes affect the Greek economy, with a focus on the production side. We analyze their effects on various value-added sectors. Various government spending types impact production sectors differently; notably, government consumption spending has a more substantial effect on boosting the value added of the non-tradable sector. Our findings emphasize the way fiscal policy influences the economy from the production side. This aligns with recent theoretical studies suggesting that government spending significantly affects services. Additionally, we discovered a new insight: higher taxes severely decrease industrial production, increase inflation, with a larger multiplier effect than spending. These results offer crucial policy lessons; they help explain why adjustment programs resulted in significant output losses and highlight when consolidations may be successful.

我们调查了不同类型的政府支出和总税收是如何影响希腊经济的，重点是生产方面。我们分析了它们对各种增值部门的影响。不同类型的政府支出对生产部门的影响不同；值得注意的是，政府消费支出对提高非贸易部门增加值的作用更为显著。我们的研究结果强调了财政政策从生产方面影响经济的方式。这与最近的理论研究一致，表明政府支出显著影响服务。此外，我们发现了一个新的见解：高税收严重降低了工业生产，增加了通货膨胀，其乘数效应比支出更大。这些结果提供了重要的政策教训；它们有助于解释为什么调整计划会导致重大的产出损失，并强调何时整合可能成功。

引用次数: 0

The value of targeted poverty alleviation to stock performance during the COVID-19 period 2019冠状病毒病期间精准扶贫对股票业绩的价值

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107390

Aifan Ling , Xin You

Using China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine how corporate participation in TPA affects firm resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Theoretically, our corporate investment model shows that TPA’s implicit benefits can enhance abnormal returns during such a shock. Applying a difference-in-differences (DID) design to Chinese listed firms (2019-2024), we find TPA firms earn significantly higher abnormal returns during the pandemic (0.05% per week and 0.66% per month), and have an effect more pronounced during the COVID-19 period that later attenuated. Underlying mechanisms include improved information disclosure, greater resource access, reduced financial constraints, and enhanced management confidence. The benefits of TPA extend not only to a firm’s real operations, such as its profitability, efficiency, and supply chain stability, but also beyond the firm to positive socio-economic and environmental outcomes, which can build valuable social capital that enhances their resilience during a major external shock.

我们以中国的精准扶贫项目为准自然实验，考察了企业参与精准扶贫项目如何影响企业在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的抵御能力。从理论上讲，我们的企业投资模型表明，在这种冲击下，TPA的隐性收益可以增强异常回报。对中国上市公司（2019-2024年）进行差异中差分（DID）设计，我们发现TPA公司在大流行期间获得了更高的异常回报（每周0.05%和每月0.66%），并且在COVID-19期间效果更为明显，随后减弱。潜在机制包括改进信息披露、扩大资源获取、减少财务约束和增强管理层信心。TPA的好处不仅延伸到企业的实际运营，如盈利能力、效率和供应链稳定性，而且还超出了企业对社会经济和环境的积极影响，这可以建立宝贵的社会资本，增强企业在重大外部冲击中的抵御能力。

引用次数: 0

An optimum currency area index for BRICS: A Bayesian prediction model 金砖国家最优货币区指数：贝叶斯预测模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107396

Dimitrios Asteriou , Epameinondas Katsikas , Konstantinos Spanos

This paper assesses the feasibility of monetary integration among BRICS economies, an issue that remains underexplored in the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) literature. Previous studies have typically relied on static indices or structural models that are not well-suited for forward-looking analysis. We develop a new OCA index using a Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) framework, which jointly estimates GDP growth and exchange rate volatility conditional on external macro-financial risks, including global uncertainty, oil prices, policy uncertainty, and sovereign risk. Using monthly data for the period 1998–2022, we analyse dynamics before and after the 2010 phase of institutional coordination. The results reveal persistent asymmetries in how BRICS economies respond to fundamentals and shocks, with India and China showing the greatest divergence. Elevated global uncertainty and financial risk are found to weaken macroeconomic alignment. The proposed index captures convergence patterns and facilitates scenario-based forecasting, offering a flexible framework for analysing monetary integration in both emerging and advanced economies.

本文评估了金砖国家之间货币一体化的可行性，这一问题在最优货币区（OCA）文献中仍未得到充分探讨。以前的研究通常依赖于静态指数或结构模型，不太适合前瞻性分析。我们使用贝叶斯看似无关回归（SUR）框架开发了一个新的OCA指数，该指数联合估计了外部宏观金融风险（包括全球不确定性、油价、政策不确定性和主权风险）条件下的GDP增长和汇率波动。利用1998-2022年期间的月度数据，我们分析了2010年机构协调阶段前后的动态。结果显示，金砖国家经济体在应对基本面和冲击方面存在持续的不对称性，其中印度和中国表现出最大的差异。全球不确定性和金融风险上升削弱了宏观经济协调性。拟议的指数捕捉了趋同模式，促进了基于情景的预测，为分析新兴和发达经济体的货币一体化提供了一个灵活的框架。

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