Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China 环境规制与企业内部薪酬分配：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474

Feiteng Lin , Wenqiang Chen , Chaosu Qian , Meimeng Lv

Investigating the effects of environmental regulation on income distribution is a crucial extension of assessing the economic impacts of environmental policies. However, the current literature lacks a thorough discussion on how environmental regulation affects income distribution, particularly concerning the pay gap within firms. In this paper, we employ the implementation of China's Key Pollutant-Discharging Units List policy as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms. Our findings indicate that environmental regulation significantly exacerbates the pay gap within firms, as evidenced by increased management compensation and reduced compensation for ordinary employees. Mechanism analysis suggests that governance pressure and financial pressure are potential pathways through which this effect occurs. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the widening effect of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms is more pronounced in non-state-controlled enterprises and firms subject to stringent local regulatory enforcement.

调查环境法规对收入分配的影响是评估环境政策的经济影响的重要延伸。然而，目前的文献缺乏对环境法规如何影响收入分配的深入讨论，特别是关于公司内部的薪酬差距。在本文中，我们采用中国重点排污单位清单政策的实施作为准自然实验来研究环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的影响。我们的研究结果表明，环境监管显著加剧了企业内部的薪酬差距，表现为管理层薪酬的增加和普通员工薪酬的减少。机制分析表明，治理压力和财务压力是这一效应发生的潜在途径。异质性检验表明，环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的扩大效应在非国有控股企业和受到严格地方监管的企业中更为明显。

{"title":"Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China","authors":"Feiteng Lin , Wenqiang Chen , Chaosu Qian , Meimeng Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating the effects of environmental regulation on income distribution is a crucial extension of assessing the economic impacts of environmental policies. However, the current literature lacks a thorough discussion on how environmental regulation affects income distribution, particularly concerning the pay gap within firms. In this paper, we employ the implementation of China's Key Pollutant-Discharging Units List policy as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms. Our findings indicate that environmental regulation significantly exacerbates the pay gap within firms, as evidenced by increased management compensation and reduced compensation for ordinary employees. Mechanism analysis suggests that governance pressure and financial pressure are potential pathways through which this effect occurs. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the widening effect of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms is more pronounced in non-state-controlled enterprises and firms subject to stringent local regulatory enforcement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107474"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rule-based profit taxation in dynamic Cournot oligopoly: Transmission, stability and welfare 动态古诺寡头垄断中基于规则的利得税：传导、稳定性和福利

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477

Veronika Nálepová , Marek Lampart

This study develops a dynamic Cournot model to examine whether profit taxation can stabilise oligopolistic markets hit by demand shocks. The tax rate is updated each period by a simple welfare rule, allowing fiscal policy to respond automatically to changing market conditions. The analysis connects the effectiveness with which taxes influence firms’ decision-making (the transmission strength) to market stability. Simulations and chaos analysis show that when the tax signal is strong, firms adjust smoothly, volatility falls and competition is preserved. In contrast, when transmission is weak, feedback effects magnify shocks, increasing exit risk and market concentration. Moderate shocks are absorbed through temporary tax changes, while stronger demand shocks in the model mainly threaten the high-cost firm. Overall, transparent and predictable profit taxation serves as a practical stabiliser in concentrated industries, limiting volatility without ad hoc measures and providing a scalable framework for future fiscal design.

本研究发展了一个动态古诺模型来检验利得税是否可以稳定受到需求冲击的寡头垄断市场。税率根据一项简单的福利规则在每个时期更新，使财政政策能够自动对不断变化的市场条件做出反应。该分析将税收影响企业决策的有效性（传导强度）与市场稳定性联系起来。模拟和混沌分析表明，当税收信号强烈时，企业调整平稳，波动性下降，竞争得以保留。相反，当传导较弱时，反馈效应放大冲击，增加退出风险和市场集中度。适度的冲击通过临时的税收变化被吸收，而模型中较强的需求冲击主要威胁高成本企业。总体而言，透明和可预测的利得税是集中型行业的实际稳定器，在没有特别措施的情况下限制波动性，并为未来的财政设计提供可扩展的框架。

引用次数: 0

Stocks, currencies, and geopolitical shocks: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets 股票、货币和地缘政治冲击：来自发达市场和新兴市场的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454

Georgios Bampinas , Ioannis Karfakis , Theodore Panagiotidis , Georgios Papapanagiotou

This study investigates how geopolitical risk shapes the relationship between stock and currency markets. We address the limited evidence on their joint dynamics under uncertainty. While prior literature shows that geopolitical risk affects individual financial markets, less is known about its role in the stock–currency interdependence across different economies. Using local Gaussian partial correlations and bootstrap inference for advanced and emerging economies, we analyze nonlinear and asymmetric dependence patterns. Our results show that in advanced economies, stock returns and currency changes are negatively linked, consistent with portfolio balance and flow-oriented theories, whereas emerging markets display positive dependence, reflecting capital flow and risk-based channels. Lead–lag effects reveal that exchange rates dominate in emerging markets, while advanced markets exhibit bidirectional interactions. Under elevated geopolitical risk, dependence strengthens and tail risks become more synchronized, particularly in emerging markets. These findings advance our understanding of cross-market transmission and inform policies on financial stability during geopolitical crises.

本研究探讨地缘政治风险如何塑造股票和货币市场之间的关系。我们讨论了在不确定性下它们的联合动力学的有限证据。虽然先前的文献表明地缘政治风险影响单个金融市场，但对其在不同经济体之间的股票货币相互依赖中的作用知之甚少。利用局部高斯偏相关和自举推理，我们分析了发达经济体和新兴经济体的非线性和不对称依赖模式。我们的研究结果表明，在发达经济体中，股票收益与货币变化呈负相关，与投资组合平衡和流动导向理论相一致，而新兴市场则表现出正相关，反映了资本流动和基于风险的渠道。超前滞后效应表明，汇率在新兴市场占主导地位，而发达市场则表现出双向互动。在地缘政治风险升高的情况下，依赖性增强，尾部风险变得更加同步，尤其是在新兴市场。这些发现促进了我们对跨市场传导的理解，并为地缘政治危机期间的金融稳定政策提供了信息。

{"title":"Stocks, currencies, and geopolitical shocks: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets","authors":"Georgios Bampinas , Ioannis Karfakis , Theodore Panagiotidis , Georgios Papapanagiotou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how geopolitical risk shapes the relationship between stock and currency markets. We address the limited evidence on their joint dynamics under uncertainty. While prior literature shows that geopolitical risk affects individual financial markets, less is known about its role in the stock–currency interdependence across different economies. Using local Gaussian partial correlations and bootstrap inference for advanced and emerging economies, we analyze nonlinear and asymmetric dependence patterns. Our results show that in advanced economies, stock returns and currency changes are negatively linked, consistent with portfolio balance and flow-oriented theories, whereas emerging markets display positive dependence, reflecting capital flow and risk-based channels. Lead–lag effects reveal that exchange rates dominate in emerging markets, while advanced markets exhibit bidirectional interactions. Under elevated geopolitical risk, dependence strengthens and tail risks become more synchronized, particularly in emerging markets. These findings advance our understanding of cross-market transmission and inform policies on financial stability during geopolitical crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107454"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public investment and real exchange rate dynamics: The role of public capital productivity 公共投资与实际汇率动态：公共资本生产率的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451

Yazid Dissou , Sicong Ma

This paper investigates how public investment influences real exchange rate dynamics. While most empirical studies find that higher government investment appreciates the real exchange rate, theory often predicts depreciation. We develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tradable and nontradable sectors, nominal rigidities, and productive public capital to reconcile these findings. Using China as a case study, we show that the productivity of public capital – the extent to which public investment enhances private-sector efficiency – is decisive. Low productivity causes a real appreciation, whereas high productivity leads to depreciation. The model thus explains the mixed empirical evidence on fiscal policy and the exchange rate. The results highlight that the competitiveness impact of public investment depends on how productive it is.

本文探讨了公共投资如何影响实际汇率动态。虽然大多数实证研究发现，更高的政府投资会使实际汇率升值，但理论往往预测会贬值。我们开发了一个开放经济的新凯恩斯主义模型，包括可贸易和不可贸易部门、名义刚性和生产性公共资本，以调和这些发现。以中国为例，我们表明公共资本的生产率——公共投资提高私营部门效率的程度——是决定性的。低生产率导致实际升值，而高生产率导致实际贬值。因此，该模型解释了财政政策和汇率的混合实证证据。研究结果表明，公共投资对竞争力的影响取决于其生产效率。

引用次数: 0

The decline of age-friendly jobs in China: Evidence from online job vacancies 中国老年人友好型工作的减少：来自网络职位空缺的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107399

Shuaizhang Feng, Jieyi Liu, Jingliang Lu

This study examines job age-friendliness in China's labor market, addressing the limited evidence on how job opportunities adapt to population aging. Using online job postings data from 2018 to 2023, we construct an Age-Friendliness Index (AFI) for occupations by applying natural language processing to measure textual similarity between occupation descriptions and age-friendly definitions. Our analysis reveals a declining trend in occupational age-friendliness, primarily driven by a shrinking share of age-friendly job vacancies. Furthermore, city-level age-friendliness is not correlated with demographic structure but is positively associated with a larger service sector share. These findings document the changing opportunities for older workers and underscore the urgency of promoting age-inclusive labor markets to sustain economic development in an aging society.

本研究考察了中国劳动力市场的工作年龄友好性，解决了关于就业机会如何适应人口老龄化的有限证据。利用2018年至2023年的在线招聘数据，通过应用自然语言处理来衡量职业描述与年龄友好定义之间的文本相似性，构建了职业年龄友好指数（AFI）。我们的分析显示，对老年人友好的职业有下降的趋势，主要是由于对老年人友好的职位空缺份额的减少。此外，城市层面的年龄友好性与人口结构无关，但与较大的服务业份额呈正相关。这些发现记录了老年劳动者面临的不断变化的机会，并强调了在老龄化社会中促进包容年龄的劳动力市场以维持经济发展的紧迫性。

引用次数: 0

Strategic income shifting in uncertain times: Insights from economic policy uncertainty 不确定时期的战略收入转移：来自经济政策不确定性的见解

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420

Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pandej Chintrakarn (Corresponding author.) , Pornsit Jiraporn

We explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on outbound income shifting by U.S. firms, offering valuable insights into how firms adapt their tax strategies under uncertain economic conditions. Using a unique dataset from De Simone et al. (2019) originally derived from confidential IRS records, we find a significant positive effect of EPU on outbound income shifting. Firms respond to uncertainty by more actively reallocating profits across jurisdictions to mitigate risk. These findings are consistently validated through rigorous methods, including propensity score matching, entropy balancing, and instrumental-variable analysis. We also show that firms with higher tax burdens are more inclined to shift income, while those with significant dividend commitments tend to adopt conservative approaches. Income shifting attributable to EPU is shown to erode firm value and profitability, possibly due to regulatory scrutiny and reputational risks. However, strong governance, particularly independent and gender-diverse boards, helps mitigate income shifting during uncertain times.

我们探讨了经济政策不确定性（EPU）对美国企业对外收入转移的影响，为企业如何在不确定的经济条件下调整其税收策略提供了有价值的见解。使用De Simone等人（2019）的独特数据集（最初来自美国国税局的机密记录），我们发现EPU对对外收入转移有显著的积极影响。企业对不确定性的反应是更积极地在不同司法管辖区之间重新分配利润，以降低风险。这些发现通过严格的方法得到了一致的验证，包括倾向得分匹配、熵平衡和工具变量分析。我们还表明，税负较高的公司更倾向于转移收入，而那些有重大股息承诺的公司倾向于采取保守的方法。可归因于EPU的收入转移显示出侵蚀公司价值和盈利能力，可能是由于监管审查和声誉风险。然而，强有力的治理，特别是独立和性别多元化的董事会，有助于缓解不确定时期的收入转移。

{"title":"Strategic income shifting in uncertain times: Insights from economic policy uncertainty","authors":"Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pandej Chintrakarn (Corresponding author.) , Pornsit Jiraporn","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on outbound income shifting by U.S. firms, offering valuable insights into how firms adapt their tax strategies under uncertain economic conditions. Using a unique dataset from De Simone et al. (2019) originally derived from confidential IRS records, we find a significant positive effect of EPU on outbound income shifting. Firms respond to uncertainty by more actively reallocating profits across jurisdictions to mitigate risk. These findings are consistently validated through rigorous methods, including propensity score matching, entropy balancing, and instrumental-variable analysis. We also show that firms with higher tax burdens are more inclined to shift income, while those with significant dividend commitments tend to adopt conservative approaches. Income shifting attributable to EPU is shown to erode firm value and profitability, possibly due to regulatory scrutiny and reputational risks. However, strong governance, particularly independent and gender-diverse boards, helps mitigate income shifting during uncertain times.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107420"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China’s technological rise and its global welfare effects 中国的技术崛起及其全球福利效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407

Hui Li , Wenzhuo Lu , Aoxin Wang , Xiaochen Xie

This paper examines how China’s technological progress has evolved since 1979 and its impact on global welfare. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model and data from the 50 largest economies, we estimate China’s technological trajectory over time. Although China still trails world leaders such as the United States, it has substantially closed the gap with advanced economies. Counterfactual analysis shows that had China’s technology remained at its WTO accession level, global trade gains would be 3.47% lower. Conversely, a 2.5% reduction in trade costs under the Belt and Road Initiative could raise welfare gains from China’s progress by 2.92%. Projections suggest that continued upgrading, together with China’s economic scale, will further shape global trade outcomes. The results highlight both the opportunities and challenges China’s technological trajectory poses for the world economy.

本文考察了中国自1979年以来的技术进步及其对全球福利的影响。使用多国李嘉图贸易模型和来自50个最大经济体的数据，我们估计了中国随时间的技术轨迹。虽然中国仍然落后于美国等世界领先国家，但它已经大大缩小了与发达经济体的差距。反事实分析表明，如果中国的技术水平保持在加入WTO时的水平，全球贸易收益将降低3.47%。相反，在“一带一路”倡议下，贸易成本每降低2.5%，中国的福利收益就会提高2.92%。预测表明，持续升级加上中国的经济规模，将进一步影响全球贸易结果。研究结果凸显了中国的技术发展轨迹给世界经济带来的机遇和挑战。

引用次数: 0

International spillovers of US monetary policy on inequality 美国货币政策对不平等的国际溢出效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439

Pradyumna Dash , Ankit Kumar , Chetan Subramanian

This study investigates the effects of U.S. monetary policy on income inequality in open economies from 1970 to 2016. We find that a 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate leads to a cumulative reduction of about 0.15% in income inequality over three years. Interestingly, we show that the effect of US monetary policy on inequality varies over time. The impact also varies by exchange rate regime: in flexible regimes, the reduction can reach nearly 0.3%, while in pegged regimes, it diminishes to around 0.13%. This impact in pegged regimes is influenced by wage rigidity and labor market regulations in the economy. To explain these results, we develop a two-agent small open economy model that incorporates rigid wages, highlighting the link between monetary policy and inequality dynamics.

本研究调查了1970年至2016年开放经济体中美国货币政策对收入不平等的影响。我们发现，联邦基金利率每提高100个基点，三年内收入不平等就会累计减少约0.15%。有趣的是，我们表明，美国货币政策对不平等的影响随时间而变化。影响也因汇率制度而异：在灵活的汇率制度下，降幅可达近0.3%，而在钉住汇率制度下，降幅降至0.13%左右。钉住汇率制度的这种影响受到经济中工资刚性和劳动力市场监管的影响。为了解释这些结果，我们开发了一个包含刚性工资的双代理小型开放经济模型，突出了货币政策与不平等动态之间的联系。

引用次数: 0

Does auction design facilitate collusion? 拍卖设计是否有利于串通？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107389

Shao-Chieh Hsueh , Lingzi Liu , Shuoxun Zhang , Jingyi Zhao

This paper examines how auction design can unintentionally facilitate bidder collusion in the land market. Departing from the dominant view that attributes low land concession revenues to corruption, we highlight how features of auction structure enable bidder-side collusion, suppressing sale prices. Using a dataset of land auctions from 15 Chinese cities (2006–2016), we find that two-stage (listing) auctions are significantly more susceptible to collusion than one-stage formats. Empirical evidence shows that sales concluding at the (secret) reserve price occur disproportionately in two-stage auctions, even after controlling for land and market characteristics. We argue that the transparency and sequencing of two-stage auctions, while designed to enhance fairness, inadvertently reduce monitoring costs and facilitate tacit bidder coordination. Our findings underscore the need to jointly consider auction format and reserve price policy in designing land sales to enhance market efficiency and mitigate collusion risks.

本文探讨了拍卖设计如何在无意中促进了土地市场中竞标者的勾结。与将土地特许权收入低归因于腐败的主流观点不同，我们强调了拍卖结构的特征如何使投标方勾结，从而抑制了销售价格。利用2006-2016年中国15个城市的土地拍卖数据集，我们发现两阶段（上市）拍卖比一阶段形式更容易出现串通行为。经验证据表明，即使在控制了土地和市场特征之后，以（秘密）底价成交的交易在两阶段拍卖中也不成比例地发生。我们认为，两阶段拍卖的透明度和顺序虽然旨在提高公平性，但无意中降低了监督成本并促进了默契的投标人协调。我们的研究结果强调了在土地出让设计中需要共同考虑拍卖形式和保留价格政策，以提高市场效率和降低共谋风险。

引用次数: 0

The effect of retail chain expansions on local small businesses: The case of Dollar General in Florida 零售连锁扩张对当地小企业的影响：以佛罗里达州达乐公司为例

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394

Amelia M. Biehl , Amir B. Ferreira Neto , Juan Tomas Sayago Gomez

In 2023, the 20,000^th Dollar General store opened in the United States, as the company, which has locations in 48 states, continued to add more stores. Dollar General is a low-cost retailer that makes shopping convenient by utilizing small stores, rather than following the traditional big box approach. Using the National Establishment Time Series dataset (NETS) for the state of Florida between 1990 and 2019, we use the difference in timing of Dollar General openings to investigate its effect on small businesses nearby. Specifically, we quantify the effects on nearby firm revenue, employment, and likelihood of exit. The unique nature of the NETS data allows us to focus on the impacts of businesses in a narrower setting and identify a treatment group of firms within 0.5-mile radius of a new Dollar General, rather than using pre-defined geographic boundaries. Our results suggest that Dollar General can drive some firms out of business but provide positive spillovers in terms of revenues and employment for the ones that survive. These results are heterogenous across industries and retail subgroups.

2023年，第2万家Dollar General门店在美国开业，该公司在48个州设有分店，并继续增加更多门店。达乐是一家低成本的零售商，通过利用小商店而不是遵循传统的大盒子方式来方便购物。使用1990年至2019年佛罗里达州的国家建立时间序列数据集（NETS），我们使用Dollar General开业时间的差异来调查其对附近小企业的影响。具体而言，我们量化了对附近企业收入、就业和退出可能性的影响。net数据的独特性质使我们能够在更窄的范围内关注企业的影响，并在新Dollar General的0.5英里半径内确定一个处理组，而不是使用预先定义的地理边界。我们的研究结果表明，达乐公司可以使一些公司破产，但在收入和就业方面为那些幸存下来的公司提供了积极的溢出效应。这些结果在不同的行业和零售子群体中是异质的。

{"title":"The effect of retail chain expansions on local small businesses: The case of Dollar General in Florida","authors":"Amelia M. Biehl , Amir B. Ferreira Neto , Juan Tomas Sayago Gomez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2023, the 20,000<sup>th</sup> Dollar General store opened in the United States, as the company, which has locations in 48 states, continued to add more stores. Dollar General is a low-cost retailer that makes shopping convenient by utilizing small stores, rather than following the traditional big box approach. Using the National Establishment Time Series dataset (NETS) for the state of Florida between 1990 and 2019, we use the difference in timing of Dollar General openings to investigate its effect on small businesses nearby. Specifically, we quantify the effects on nearby firm revenue, employment, and likelihood of exit. The unique nature of the NETS data allows us to focus on the impacts of businesses in a narrower setting and identify a treatment group of firms within 0.5-mile radius of a new Dollar General, rather than using pre-defined geographic boundaries. Our results suggest that Dollar General can drive some firms out of business but provide positive spillovers in terms of revenues and employment for the ones that survive. These results are heterogenous across industries and retail subgroups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107394"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Economic Modelling

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀