Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Educational mismatch and wages: Evidence from a cross-country comparison 教育不匹配与工资：来自跨国比较的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448

Hongye Sun

Rapid technological change and educational expansion raise fundamental questions about educational mismatch and efficient human capital allocation. This study employs an OECD-administered survey to identify educational mismatch using self-assessment measures and to investigate its wage effects across 20 countries. The results show that overeducated workers earn 14% less than their adequately matched counterparts, whereas undereducated workers earn 10% more. Furthermore, gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that women experience larger penalties for overeducation and smaller premiums for undereducation than men. Propensity score matching estimates indicate substantial cross-country heterogeneity in wage effects, with particularly large penalties in Spain, Korea, and Japan, implying that rigid labor market regulation with limited occupational mobility yield larger penalties, while countries with well-developed vocational systems exhibit smaller effects. This study provides novel comparative evidence on the causal wage effects of educational mismatch and underscores the importance of institution-specific policies linking education quality, labor market flexibility, and lifelong learning.

快速的技术变革和教育扩张提出了教育错配和人力资本有效配置等根本性问题。本研究采用经合组织管理的一项调查，利用自我评估措施确定教育不匹配，并调查其对20个国家的工资影响。结果显示，受教育程度过高的工人的收入比同等水平的工人低14%，而受教育程度较低的工人的收入则高出10%。此外，按性别分类的分析显示，与男性相比，女性因受教育过多而受到的惩罚更大，而因受教育不足而得到的奖励更少。倾向得分匹配估计表明，工资效应存在显著的跨国异质性，西班牙、韩国和日本的惩罚力度尤其大，这意味着，严格的劳动力市场监管和有限的职业流动性会产生更大的惩罚，而职业体系发达的国家则表现出较小的影响。本研究为教育错配对工资的因果效应提供了新的比较证据，并强调了将教育质量、劳动力市场灵活性和终身学习联系起来的制度性政策的重要性。

{"title":"Educational mismatch and wages: Evidence from a cross-country comparison","authors":"Hongye Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid technological change and educational expansion raise fundamental questions about educational mismatch and efficient human capital allocation. This study employs an OECD-administered survey to identify educational mismatch using self-assessment measures and to investigate its wage effects across 20 countries. The results show that overeducated workers earn 14% less than their adequately matched counterparts, whereas undereducated workers earn 10% more. Furthermore, gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that women experience larger penalties for overeducation and smaller premiums for undereducation than men. Propensity score matching estimates indicate substantial cross-country heterogeneity in wage effects, with particularly large penalties in Spain, Korea, and Japan, implying that rigid labor market regulation with limited occupational mobility yield larger penalties, while countries with well-developed vocational systems exhibit smaller effects. This study provides novel comparative evidence on the causal wage effects of educational mismatch and underscores the importance of institution-specific policies linking education quality, labor market flexibility, and lifelong learning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107448"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do aggregate dynamics in developing economies differ after a rise in home and foreign productivity? 在国内外生产率提高后，发展中经济体的总体动态是否有所不同？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447

Mustafa Tuğan , Seda E. Özçelik

While developing economies set narrowing their productivity gap with advanced economies as a key goal, the macroeconomic consequences of productivity improvements in developing economies remain underexplored. In particular, the existing literature often overlooks whether domestic versus foreign-driven productivity gains have different aggregate effects. Our approach assumes that foreign technology spills over into developing economies’ technology, but not vice versa, allowing us to identify the distinct impacts of both sources of productivity growth in a novel way. Our findings show that U.S. productivity shocks in developing economies have minimal effects on such key macroeconomic variables as output, employment, prices, and so on, while domestic productivity shocks lead to significant and broad-based responses across all these variables. These contrasting effects challenge the complementary relationship found in larger developing economies like India and stress the need to differentiate between domestic and foreign sources of productivity improvements to better understand their economic impact.

虽然发展中经济体将缩小与发达经济体的生产率差距作为一个关键目标，但生产率提高对发展中经济体的宏观经济影响仍未得到充分探讨。特别是，现有文献往往忽略了国内和国外驱动的生产率增长是否具有不同的总体效应。我们的方法假设外国技术会溢出到发展中经济体的技术中，而不是相反，这使我们能够以一种新颖的方式确定两种生产率增长来源的不同影响。我们的研究结果表明，美国对发展中经济体的生产率冲击对产出、就业、价格等关键宏观经济变量的影响最小，而国内生产率冲击对所有这些变量都产生了显著的、广泛的反应。这些对比效应对印度等较大发展中经济体的互补关系提出了挑战，并强调有必要区分国内和国外生产率提高的来源，以便更好地了解其经济影响。

引用次数: 0

Bride price, marriage expectations, and intentions among young male migrants in China: Evidence from manufacturing gig workers 中国年轻男性流动人口的彩礼、婚姻期望和意愿：来自制造业零工的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107443

Minhee Chae , Dandan Zhang

This study explores how regional bride price norms shape family formation attitudes among young, low-income male migrants in China, focusing on manufacturing gig workers. Demographic challenges in this vulnerable population are critical, yet research is limited due to scarce, recent data. Using unique surveys on manufacturing gig workers and bride prices, we analyse the relationship between these financial burdens and attitudes towards marriage. Results show that men from high bride price regions are less likely to expect marriage or parenthood and exhibit lower marriage intentions, especially in their late 20s. These associations are stronger for less-educated migrants, suggesting financial barriers are disproportionately linked to those with lower socioeconomic status. Evidence also shows that such pressures may extend migration and push men into riskier informal employment, further delaying family formation and career development. These findings highlight the role of financial constraints in shaping family formation among low-income groups in China.

本研究以制造业零工为研究对象，探讨了地区彩礼规范如何影响中国低收入年轻男性农民工的家庭组建态度。这一弱势群体面临的人口挑战至关重要，但由于缺乏最新数据，研究有限。通过对制造业零工和彩礼的独特调查，我们分析了这些经济负担与婚姻态度之间的关系。研究结果显示，来自高彩礼地区的男性不太可能期待结婚或生育，并且表现出较低的结婚意愿，尤其是在20多岁的时候。这些关联在受教育程度较低的移民中更为明显，这表明经济障碍与社会经济地位较低的移民有着不成比例的联系。证据还表明，这种压力可能会扩大移徙，迫使男子从事风险更大的非正式就业，进一步推迟组建家庭和职业发展。这些发现突出了经济约束在中国低收入群体家庭形成中的作用。

引用次数: 0

Patents and R&D Subsidies in a Two-Sector Schumpeterian Economy 双部门熊彼特经济中的专利与研发补贴

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107438

Martin Stojanovikj

This study examines how patent protection, research and development (R&D) subsidies, and their interaction affect economic growth within a vertically integrated (downstream–upstream) Schumpeterian framework. The relative R&D productivity of each sector determines how these policy tools influence innovation and growth. When the upstream R&D sector is relatively more productive, stronger patent breadth and R&D subsidies in that sector promote growth; the same holds for the downstream sector when it is more productive. Within each sector, patents and R&D subsidies act as complements, but they compete across sectors: downstream R&D subsidies amplify the growth effect of downstream patent strength, while reducing gains from upstream patents, and upstream R&D subsidies have the opposite effect. The model is calibrated using U.S. data to quantitatively evaluate the magnitude of these growth effects.

本研究考察了专利保护、研发补贴及其相互作用如何在垂直整合（上下游）熊彼特框架下影响经济增长。每个部门的相对研发生产率决定了这些政策工具如何影响创新和增长。当上游研发部门的生产率相对较高时，该部门的专利广度和研发补贴越强，则促进了增长；下游行业在生产率更高时也是如此。在每个部门内，专利和研发补贴互为补充，但它们在不同部门之间相互竞争：下游研发补贴放大了下游专利实力的增长效应，同时降低了上游专利的收益，而上游研发补贴则起到相反的作用。该模型使用美国数据进行校准，以定量评估这些增长效应的大小。

引用次数: 0

Does smart city benefit open innovation? firm-level evidence from China 智慧城市是否有利于开放式创新？来自中国的企业层面的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107453

Huijie Cui , Hongyan Hu , Shangkun Liang

Open innovation offers great promise for firms seeking long-term competitiveness, but the challenge of balancing openness with control often hinders collaboration. This study investigates whether smart city pilot policies can alleviate the “paradox of openness” and foster collaboration. Using firm-level data, we find that firms located in smart city pilot areas are more likely to engage in collaborative innovation and produce a higher level of joint innovation output and quality. The mechanism lies in the stronger support and coordination between governments and firms in these cities, which lowers the barriers to external cooperation. Cross-sectional analyses show that the effect varies across different external factors. We also demonstrate that the policy's promotional effect has a lasting impact. Overall, these findings highlight the role of smart city policy in unlocking the full potential of open innovation.

开放式创新为寻求长期竞争力的公司提供了巨大的希望，但平衡开放与控制的挑战往往会阻碍合作。本研究探讨智慧城市试点政策能否缓解“开放悖论”，促进合作。利用企业层面的数据，我们发现位于智慧城市试点地区的企业更有可能参与协同创新，并产生更高水平的联合创新产出和质量。其机制在于城市政府和企业之间的支持和协调力度加大，降低了对外合作的壁垒。横断面分析表明，影响因外部因素的不同而不同。我们还证明了政策的促进作用具有持久的影响。总的来说，这些发现突出了智慧城市政策在释放开放式创新的全部潜力方面的作用。

引用次数: 0

Public investment and real exchange rate dynamics: The role of public capital productivity 公共投资与实际汇率动态：公共资本生产率的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451

Yazid Dissou , Sicong Ma

This paper investigates how public investment influences real exchange rate dynamics. While most empirical studies find that higher government investment appreciates the real exchange rate, theory often predicts depreciation. We develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tradable and nontradable sectors, nominal rigidities, and productive public capital to reconcile these findings. Using China as a case study, we show that the productivity of public capital – the extent to which public investment enhances private-sector efficiency – is decisive. Low productivity causes a real appreciation, whereas high productivity leads to depreciation. The model thus explains the mixed empirical evidence on fiscal policy and the exchange rate. The results highlight that the competitiveness impact of public investment depends on how productive it is.

本文探讨了公共投资如何影响实际汇率动态。虽然大多数实证研究发现，更高的政府投资会使实际汇率升值，但理论往往预测会贬值。我们开发了一个开放经济的新凯恩斯主义模型，包括可贸易和不可贸易部门、名义刚性和生产性公共资本，以调和这些发现。以中国为例，我们表明公共资本的生产率——公共投资提高私营部门效率的程度——是决定性的。低生产率导致实际升值，而高生产率导致实际贬值。因此，该模型解释了财政政策和汇率的混合实证证据。研究结果表明，公共投资对竞争力的影响取决于其生产效率。

引用次数: 0

Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa 中国教育部门发展援助对非洲青年受教育程度的地方影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444

Dickson David Agbaji , Qiong Zhu

This paper investigates the impacts of Chinese education aid on African youth's secondary and tertiary education attainment. It harmonises 92 Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 27 African countries with AidData's geocoded data on 2580 Chinese projects across Africa between 2000 and 2021. The study draws on the education production function theory and adopts a difference-in-differences estimator that addresses endogeneity by testing for differences between active and pipeline projects. It finds that proximity to active Chinese education sector projects significantly improves African youth secondary and tertiary school enrolment and completion, with tertiary-level and non-infrastructure projects exhibiting the strongest effects. A causal mediation analysis demonstrates that the aid effect is mediated via household income, rather than infrastructure. Moreover, social and economic sector aid projects exhibit (in)direct spillover effects. Lastly, the paper finds that a selection bias exists, as wealthy and urban areas possess a comparative advantage vis-à-vis exposure to Chinese aid.

本文研究了中国教育援助对非洲青年中、高等教育成就的影响。它将来自27个非洲国家的92个人口与健康调查数据集与非洲援助数据中心2000年至2021年期间2580个中国在非洲项目的地理编码数据相协调。该研究借鉴了教育生产函数理论，并采用了一种差中差估计方法，通过测试活动项目和管道项目之间的差异来解决内生性问题。研究发现，靠近中国活跃的教育部门项目显著提高了非洲青年的中学和大学入学率和毕业率，其中高等教育和非基础设施项目的影响最大。因果中介分析表明，援助效应是通过家庭收入而不是基础设施来中介的。此外，社会和经济部门援助项目表现出直接的溢出效应。最后，本文发现存在选择偏差，因为富裕地区和城市地区在-à-vis接受中国援助方面具有比较优势。

引用次数: 0

Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities 自动化与农民工就业关系中的空间依赖：来自中国城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442

Zhoufu Yan , Qihong Zhu , Markus Leibrecht , Fangwei Wu

China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.

中国在自动化的速度和农村劳动力迁移的程度上都是出类拔萃的。本文研究了工业自动化对中国农民工就业的影响，重点研究了空间溢出效应。我们使用2011年至2018年的城市就业数据和工业机器人的采用作为自动化的代理，并应用了空间德宾模型。我们发现，自动化显著减少了当地农民工就业，同时对邻近城市产生了正溢出效应。这些影响因移民的技能、任务、行业、移民类型、年龄和婚姻状况而异。机制分析表明，自动化促进了高新技术企业集聚和技能升级，造成了技能溢价和劳动力外流。同时，自动化加强了相邻城市之间的产业联系和结构相似性，促进了正向溢出效应。研究结果为旨在在技术转型中稳定农村移民就业和福祉的区域间政策提供了信息。

引用次数: 0

Generalized impulse response analysis for time-varying VAR models 时变VAR模型的广义脉冲响应分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107452

Li Tan , Shibo Bian , Yayi Yan , Zhiming Hu

This paper considers estimation and inference of time-varying generalized impulse response functions (TV-GIRFs) for time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We use the local linear kernel method to estimate time-varying model coefficients, propose an easy-to-implement estimator for TV-GIRFs, and then establish its asymptotic properties for inferential purposes. Extensive simulation experiments show that our estimation method works well in finite samples. To demonstrate the empirical relevance, we apply the proposed TV-GIRFs to estimate the time-variation in U.S. government spending multipliers and the time-varying volatility spillovers among five major Asian stock markets, respectively.

本文研究时变向量自回归（VAR）模型的时变广义脉冲响应函数（TV-GIRFs）的估计和推理。我们使用局部线性核方法来估计时变模型系数，提出了一个易于实现的tv - girf估计器，并建立了其渐近性质用于推理。大量的仿真实验表明，我们的估计方法在有限的样本中效果良好。为了证明这一实证相关性，我们应用提出的电视-全球girf分别估计了美国政府支出乘数的时变和亚洲五大股票市场的时变波动溢出效应。

引用次数: 0

Does the People's Bank of China's currency swap have macroeconomic stability effects? 中国人民银行货币互换是否具有宏观经济稳定效应？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107449

Lingxiao Tang , Kenan Li , Yao Ouyang

Based on the International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR), this paper develops a two-country open-economy DSGE model to evaluate the macroeconomic stability effect of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swap. The simulation results indicate that the PBoC's currency swap has a macroeconomic stability effect, but moral hazard weakens this effect. Using sample data from 182 economies from 2007 to 2022 and empirical results based on the staggered DiD model, it is shown that currency swaps help suppress macroeconomic fluctuations and cushion the negative impact of rising US dollar financing costs. The larger the scale of the central bank's reduction in foreign exchange reserves in a currency swap economy is, the weaker the macroeconomic stability effect of the PBoC's currency swap. Further discoveries show that the PBoC's currency swap has a greater macroeconomic stability effect on emerging economies.

本文基于国际最后贷款人（ILOLR），建立了一个两国开放经济的DSGE模型来评估中国人民银行货币互换的宏观经济稳定效果。模拟结果表明，央行货币互换具有宏观经济稳定效应，但道德风险削弱了这种效应。利用2007 - 2022年182个经济体的样本数据和基于交错DiD模型的实证结果表明，货币互换有助于抑制宏观经济波动，缓冲美元融资成本上升的负面影响。在货币掉期经济体中，央行减少外汇储备的规模越大，央行货币掉期的宏观经济稳定效应越弱。进一步发现，中国央行的货币互换对新兴经济体具有更大的宏观经济稳定效应。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Economic Modelling

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀