Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Natural disasters and the effects of reconstruction expenditure on output 自然灾害和重建支出对产出的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458

Christos Chrysanthakopoulos , Athanasios Tagkalakis

Using a panel of 116 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies over 1990–2022, we examine the immediate impact of natural disasters on economic activity and public finances, and the medium-term effects of post-disaster reconstruction through public spending. Natural disasters significantly reduce output and worsen fiscal balances, with extreme events causing larger losses than major disasters. Employing a panel local-projection approach combined with instrumental variables and robustness checks, we find that reconstruction spending can effectively promote medium-term growth. Specifically, a 1 % increase in real cyclically adjusted government expenditure after an extreme disaster raises real output by about 2.5 % five years later. The positive effects are stronger in countries with lower public debt, lower trade openness, higher financial development, fixed exchange-rate regimes, and in emerging markets rather than advanced or least developed economies. Effects are also larger in countries with higher old-age dependency ratios and lower reliance on agriculture or tourism.

通过对1990年至2022年间116个发达经济体、新兴市场经济体和发展中经济体的调查，我们研究了自然灾害对经济活动和公共财政的直接影响，以及通过公共支出进行灾后重建的中期影响。自然灾害显著减少产出，恶化财政平衡，极端事件造成的损失大于重大灾害。采用结合工具变量和鲁棒性检验的面板局部预测方法，我们发现重建支出可以有效地促进中期增长。具体来说，一场极端灾难发生后，经周期性调整后的实际政府支出每增加1%，五年后的实际产出就会增加2.5%左右。在公共债务较低、贸易开放程度较低、金融发展程度较高、实行固定汇率制度的国家，以及新兴市场国家，而不是发达经济体或最不发达经济体，积极影响更为强烈。在老年抚养比率较高、对农业或旅游业依赖程度较低的国家，影响也更大。

引用次数: 0

AI strategy, earnings management, and corporate fraud: Evidence from listed firms in China 人工智能战略、盈余管理与企业舞弊：来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460

Liufang Xie , Zhengbo Peng , Xiaoge Tong

This study examines how heterogeneous artificial intelligence (AI) strategies affect corporate fraud, addressing a gap in the literature that has largely focused on AI's governance role from a technological perspective while overlooking firms' underlying adoption motivations. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2023, we distinguish between symbolic and substantive AI strategies and analyze their differential effects on corporate fraud. The results show that symbolic AI adoption significantly increases fraud risk, particularly among highly financialized firms, non-manufacturing firms, and firms operating under high uncertainty, whereas substantive AI adoption has no direct effect on fraud incidence. Mechanism analysis reveals that symbolic AI increases fraud risk indirectly through accrual-based earnings management, suggesting that opportunistic financial reporting constitutes an important transmission mechanism. In addition, we find that non-standard audit opinions significantly weaken the positive association between symbolic AI adoption and corporate fraud, highlighting the disciplinary role of external audit oversight. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of organisational motivation in shaping the economic consequences of AI adoption and offer policy-relevant implications for fostering more rational and transparent use of emerging technologies.

本研究探讨了异质人工智能（AI）策略如何影响企业欺诈，解决了文献中的空白，这些文献主要关注人工智能从技术角度的治理作用，而忽视了公司的潜在采用动机。利用2013年至2023年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，我们区分了象征性和实质性人工智能策略，并分析了它们对公司欺诈的差异影响。结果表明，象征性人工智能的采用显著增加了欺诈风险，特别是在高度金融化的企业、非制造业企业和在高不确定性下运营的企业中，而实质性人工智能的采用对欺诈发生率没有直接影响。机制分析表明，符号人工智能通过权责发生制盈余管理间接增加了欺诈风险，表明机会主义财务报告构成了重要的传导机制。此外，我们发现非标准审计意见显著削弱了象征性人工智能采用与公司舞弊之间的正相关关系，突出了外部审计监督的纪律作用。总的来说，这些发现强调了组织动机在塑造人工智能采用的经济后果方面的重要性，并为促进更合理、更透明地使用新兴技术提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Can place-based digital policy drive corporate digital technology innovation? Evidence from China 基于地点的数字政策能否推动企业数字技术创新？来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107459

Yuan Feng , Changfei Nie

This paper examines the impact of place-based digital policy on corporate digital technology innovation (DTI), addressing an underexplored area in the literature on place-based policies and the drivers of DTI. While prior studies have focused primarily on traditional policy instruments and firm-level characteristics, the role of place-based digital policies in fostering corporate DTI remains insufficiently understood. Exploiting the establishment of national new-generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zones (AIPZs) in China as an exogenous policy shock, and using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal effect of the AIPZs policy on corporate DTI. The results show that the AIPZs policy significantly enhances firms' digital technology innovation. This effect is further strengthened by firms' digital transformation and executives’ digital backgrounds and operates through increased R&D investment, improved human capital, and reduced operating costs. Overall, these findings provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of place-based digital policies and deepen our understanding of policy-driven digital innovation ecosystems.

本文研究了基于地的数字政策对企业数字技术创新（DTI）的影响，解决了关于基于地的政策和DTI驱动因素的文献中未被探索的领域。虽然之前的研究主要集中在传统的政策工具和企业层面的特征上，但基于地点的数字政策在促进企业DTI方面的作用仍然没有得到充分的理解。本文以中国国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区的设立为外生政策冲击，以中国a股上市公司为样本，采用多时期差分法分析了人工智能创新发展试验区政策对企业DTI的因果效应。结果表明：创新园区政策显著促进了企业的数字技术创新。企业的数字化转型和高管的数字化背景进一步强化了这种效应，并通过增加研发投资、改善人力资本和降低运营成本来发挥作用。总体而言，这些发现为基于地方的数字政策的有效性提供了经验证据，并加深了我们对政策驱动的数字创新生态系统的理解。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of fertility on older adults’ healthcare utilization: The roles of health and wealth channels 生育对老年人医疗保健利用的影响：健康渠道和财富渠道的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455

Mingjia Xie , Ting Yin , Yi Zhang , Takashi Oshio

This study investigates how fertility affects healthcare utilization among older adults. Departing from the literature's primary focus on health outcomes, it addresses a key gap in understanding family-level determinants of health spending in aging societies. Using data from rural China and an instrumental variable strategy, we find that having more children increases healthcare utilization and spending, but also the likelihood of forgoing costly inpatient care, reflecting unmet healthcare needs among older adults. The health cost burden is particularly pronounced for women, less-educated parents, and families with limited resources or weak insurance. Two mechanisms explain these effects: the “health channel”, where higher fertility worsens parental health and increases demand for healthcare, and the “wealth channel”, where children provide support that facilitates healthcare use. These findings reveal an overlooked cost of fertility: birth-encouraging policies, while easing demographic pressures, can increase older generations' financial burdens, underscoring the importance of equitable and affordable healthcare.

本研究探讨生育能力如何影响老年人的医疗保健利用。从文献对健康结果的主要关注出发，它解决了在理解老龄化社会中卫生支出的家庭层面决定因素方面的关键差距。使用来自中国农村的数据和工具变量策略，我们发现有更多的孩子会增加医疗保健的利用率和支出，但也有可能放弃昂贵的住院治疗，这反映了老年人未满足的医疗保健需求。对于妇女、受教育程度较低的父母以及资源有限或保险薄弱的家庭来说，医疗费用负担尤其明显。有两种机制可以解释这些影响：“健康渠道”，即较高的生育率使父母的健康恶化并增加对保健的需求；以及“财富渠道”，即儿童提供支助，促进保健的使用。这些发现揭示了一个被忽视的生育成本：鼓励生育的政策在缓解人口压力的同时，可能会增加老一代的经济负担，从而强调了公平和负担得起的医疗保健的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Does corruption trigger political instability? Evidence on the role of demographics and social cohesion 腐败会引发政治不稳定吗？关于人口和社会凝聚力作用的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107456

Nasser Al-Jabri , Shrabani Saha , Neil Campbell , Abbas Ali Gillani

A breakdown in social cohesion and the resulting political instability have adverse consequences for economic development. While corruption can fuel political instability, not all countries experiencing high levels of corruption are politically unstable. Given the growing interest in the role of youth in driving political change, this paper examines whether youth unemployment and the youthfulness of the population (the youth bulge) exacerbate the impact of corruption on political instability. Using panel data for over one hundred countries from 1984 to 2022, the analysis reveals that a youth bulge amplifies the adverse effects of corruption on political instability in oil-exporting countries, compared to non-oil-exporting counterparts. This finding challenges the notion that oil rents can effectively be used to buy off potentially dissatisfied groups.

社会凝聚力的崩溃和由此产生的政治不稳定对经济发展产生不利影响。虽然腐败会加剧政治不稳定，但并非所有经历严重腐败的国家都政治不稳定。鉴于人们越来越关注青年在推动政治变革中的作用，本文探讨了青年失业和人口年轻化（青年膨胀）是否加剧了腐败对政治不稳定的影响。利用1984年至2022年100多个国家的面板数据，分析显示，与非石油出口国相比，石油出口国的年轻人膨胀放大了腐败对政治不稳定的不利影响。这一发现挑战了一种观点，即石油租金可以有效地用来收买潜在的不满群体。

引用次数: 0

Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt 杠杆、流动性和投资：公司债务的周期性影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457

Rubén Gonzálvez, Luis Cárdenas

How does corporate debt shape firms’ investment behavior across the business cycle? Using firm-level balance sheet data for Spanish companies over 1997–2019, we estimate a flexible panel data model and a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to identify the causal effect of leverage on investment. We find that leverage stimulates investment before 2008 but strongly contracts it during the post-2008 deleveraging period. After 2008, highly indebted firms reduce their investment rate by 1.8 percentage points more than less indebted firms. This contraction is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, with micro firms cutting their investment rate by 6.3 percentage points and firms in construction showing particularly strong declines. In contrast, investment by large firms remains comparatively stable. The results underscore the procyclical nature of corporate debt and suggest the importance of closely monitoring firm leverage and liquidity conditions, particularly for SMEs, during periods of economic expansion and contraction.

企业债务如何影响企业在整个经济周期中的投资行为？利用西班牙公司1997-2019年的企业资产负债表数据，我们估计了一个灵活的面板数据模型和双重稳健的差异中差异设计，以确定杠杆对投资的因果影响。我们发现，在2008年之前，杠杆会刺激投资，但在2008年之后的去杠杆时期，杠杆会强烈收缩投资。2008年以后，高负债企业的投资率比低负债企业高1.8个百分点。收缩主要集中在中小企业，其中微型企业投资率下降6.3个百分点，建筑业降幅尤为明显。相比之下，大公司的投资相对稳定。研究结果强调了企业债务的顺周期性质，并表明在经济扩张和收缩期间密切监测企业杠杆率和流动性状况的重要性，尤其是对中小企业而言。

引用次数: 0

Educational mismatch and wages: Evidence from a cross-country comparison 教育不匹配与工资：来自跨国比较的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448

Hongye Sun

Rapid technological change and educational expansion raise fundamental questions about educational mismatch and efficient human capital allocation. This study employs an OECD-administered survey to identify educational mismatch using self-assessment measures and to investigate its wage effects across 20 countries. The results show that overeducated workers earn 14% less than their adequately matched counterparts, whereas undereducated workers earn 10% more. Furthermore, gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that women experience larger penalties for overeducation and smaller premiums for undereducation than men. Propensity score matching estimates indicate substantial cross-country heterogeneity in wage effects, with particularly large penalties in Spain, Korea, and Japan, implying that rigid labor market regulation with limited occupational mobility yield larger penalties, while countries with well-developed vocational systems exhibit smaller effects. This study provides novel comparative evidence on the causal wage effects of educational mismatch and underscores the importance of institution-specific policies linking education quality, labor market flexibility, and lifelong learning.

快速的技术变革和教育扩张提出了教育错配和人力资本有效配置等根本性问题。本研究采用经合组织管理的一项调查，利用自我评估措施确定教育不匹配，并调查其对20个国家的工资影响。结果显示，受教育程度过高的工人的收入比同等水平的工人低14%，而受教育程度较低的工人的收入则高出10%。此外，按性别分类的分析显示，与男性相比，女性因受教育过多而受到的惩罚更大，而因受教育不足而得到的奖励更少。倾向得分匹配估计表明，工资效应存在显著的跨国异质性，西班牙、韩国和日本的惩罚力度尤其大，这意味着，严格的劳动力市场监管和有限的职业流动性会产生更大的惩罚，而职业体系发达的国家则表现出较小的影响。本研究为教育错配对工资的因果效应提供了新的比较证据，并强调了将教育质量、劳动力市场灵活性和终身学习联系起来的制度性政策的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Do aggregate dynamics in developing economies differ after a rise in home and foreign productivity? 在国内外生产率提高后，发展中经济体的总体动态是否有所不同？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447

Mustafa Tuğan , Seda E. Özçelik

While developing economies set narrowing their productivity gap with advanced economies as a key goal, the macroeconomic consequences of productivity improvements in developing economies remain underexplored. In particular, the existing literature often overlooks whether domestic versus foreign-driven productivity gains have different aggregate effects. Our approach assumes that foreign technology spills over into developing economies’ technology, but not vice versa, allowing us to identify the distinct impacts of both sources of productivity growth in a novel way. Our findings show that U.S. productivity shocks in developing economies have minimal effects on such key macroeconomic variables as output, employment, prices, and so on, while domestic productivity shocks lead to significant and broad-based responses across all these variables. These contrasting effects challenge the complementary relationship found in larger developing economies like India and stress the need to differentiate between domestic and foreign sources of productivity improvements to better understand their economic impact.

虽然发展中经济体将缩小与发达经济体的生产率差距作为一个关键目标，但生产率提高对发展中经济体的宏观经济影响仍未得到充分探讨。特别是，现有文献往往忽略了国内和国外驱动的生产率增长是否具有不同的总体效应。我们的方法假设外国技术会溢出到发展中经济体的技术中，而不是相反，这使我们能够以一种新颖的方式确定两种生产率增长来源的不同影响。我们的研究结果表明，美国对发展中经济体的生产率冲击对产出、就业、价格等关键宏观经济变量的影响最小，而国内生产率冲击对所有这些变量都产生了显著的、广泛的反应。这些对比效应对印度等较大发展中经济体的互补关系提出了挑战，并强调有必要区分国内和国外生产率提高的来源，以便更好地了解其经济影响。

引用次数: 0

Bride price, marriage expectations, and intentions among young male migrants in China: Evidence from manufacturing gig workers 中国年轻男性流动人口的彩礼、婚姻期望和意愿：来自制造业零工的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107443

Minhee Chae , Dandan Zhang

This study explores how regional bride price norms shape family formation attitudes among young, low-income male migrants in China, focusing on manufacturing gig workers. Demographic challenges in this vulnerable population are critical, yet research is limited due to scarce, recent data. Using unique surveys on manufacturing gig workers and bride prices, we analyse the relationship between these financial burdens and attitudes towards marriage. Results show that men from high bride price regions are less likely to expect marriage or parenthood and exhibit lower marriage intentions, especially in their late 20s. These associations are stronger for less-educated migrants, suggesting financial barriers are disproportionately linked to those with lower socioeconomic status. Evidence also shows that such pressures may extend migration and push men into riskier informal employment, further delaying family formation and career development. These findings highlight the role of financial constraints in shaping family formation among low-income groups in China.

本研究以制造业零工为研究对象，探讨了地区彩礼规范如何影响中国低收入年轻男性农民工的家庭组建态度。这一弱势群体面临的人口挑战至关重要，但由于缺乏最新数据，研究有限。通过对制造业零工和彩礼的独特调查，我们分析了这些经济负担与婚姻态度之间的关系。研究结果显示，来自高彩礼地区的男性不太可能期待结婚或生育，并且表现出较低的结婚意愿，尤其是在20多岁的时候。这些关联在受教育程度较低的移民中更为明显，这表明经济障碍与社会经济地位较低的移民有着不成比例的联系。证据还表明，这种压力可能会扩大移徙，迫使男子从事风险更大的非正式就业，进一步推迟组建家庭和职业发展。这些发现突出了经济约束在中国低收入群体家庭形成中的作用。

引用次数: 0

Patents and R&D Subsidies in a Two-Sector Schumpeterian Economy 双部门熊彼特经济中的专利与研发补贴

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107438

Martin Stojanovikj

This study examines how patent protection, research and development (R&D) subsidies, and their interaction affect economic growth within a vertically integrated (downstream–upstream) Schumpeterian framework. The relative R&D productivity of each sector determines how these policy tools influence innovation and growth. When the upstream R&D sector is relatively more productive, stronger patent breadth and R&D subsidies in that sector promote growth; the same holds for the downstream sector when it is more productive. Within each sector, patents and R&D subsidies act as complements, but they compete across sectors: downstream R&D subsidies amplify the growth effect of downstream patent strength, while reducing gains from upstream patents, and upstream R&D subsidies have the opposite effect. The model is calibrated using U.S. data to quantitatively evaluate the magnitude of these growth effects.

本研究考察了专利保护、研发补贴及其相互作用如何在垂直整合（上下游）熊彼特框架下影响经济增长。每个部门的相对研发生产率决定了这些政策工具如何影响创新和增长。当上游研发部门的生产率相对较高时，该部门的专利广度和研发补贴越强，则促进了增长；下游行业在生产率更高时也是如此。在每个部门内，专利和研发补贴互为补充，但它们在不同部门之间相互竞争：下游研发补贴放大了下游专利实力的增长效应，同时降低了上游专利的收益，而上游研发补贴则起到相反的作用。该模型使用美国数据进行校准，以定量评估这些增长效应的大小。

引用次数: 0

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