Economic Modelling最新文献

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How do free trade agreements affect firms’ export values? Insights into the mechanisms of trade costs and export stability 自由贸易协定如何影响企业的出口价值？贸易成本与出口稳定机制的洞察

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107487

Yunyan Wei , Wen Yue

This study examines the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) on firms' export values, addressing a gap in the literature regarding how trade liberalization within formal institutions affects firm-level export values. Using data from the Chinese Customs database and the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database (2002–2015), we find, first, that FTAs significantly enhance firms' export values by lowering export costs and improving export stability. Second, these effects are particularly pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises, younger firms, and firms facing greater financial constraints. Third, FTAs strengthen the export intensive margins and increase the export quantities. Overall, the findings offer valuable insights for promoting sustained export growth and provide policymakers with evidence to support the promotion of FTAs to enhance trade stability in the face of global challenges.

本研究考察了自由贸易协定（FTAs）对企业出口价值的影响，解决了文献中关于正式制度内贸易自由化如何影响企业层面出口价值的空白。利用中国海关数据库和中国股票市场与会计研究数据库（2002-2015）的数据，我们发现，首先，自由贸易协定通过降低出口成本和提高出口稳定性显著提高了企业的出口价值。其次，这些影响对中小企业、较年轻的企业和面临较大资金约束的企业尤为明显。第三，自由贸易协定增强了出口集约空间，增加了出口数量。总体而言，研究结果为促进持续出口增长提供了有价值的见解，并为政策制定者在面临全球挑战时支持促进自由贸易协定以增强贸易稳定提供了证据。

引用次数: 0

Cross-border data regulation and export quality: Evidence from China 跨境数据监管与出口质量：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107493

Yu Liu , Huan Yu

Existing literature predominantly focuses on traditional trade barriers, with relatively limited exploration of new types of obstacles in the digital era. Based on data from Chinese customs and the OECD spanning from 2014 to 2021, this study examines the impact of host countries' cross-border data regulations on China's export quality. The findings reveal that (1) host countries' cross-border data regulations significantly suppress China's export quality; (2) moderating effects indicate that improvements in technological innovation and human capital levels can mitigate the inhibitory effect of cross-border data regulations on export product quality; and (3) heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more pronounced in China's exports to developed economies and economies with higher levels of digital economy development, with a particularly significant impact on high-tech industries.

现有文献主要关注传统的贸易壁垒，对数字时代新型壁垒的探索相对有限。基于2014年至2021年中国海关和经合组织的数据，本研究考察了东道国跨境数据监管对中国出口质量的影响。研究发现：(1)东道国跨境数据管制显著抑制了中国出口质量；(2)调节效应表明，技术创新和人力资本水平的提高可以缓解跨境数据监管对出口产品质量的抑制作用；(3)异质性分析表明，中国对发达经济体和数字经济发展水平较高经济体的出口受到的负面影响更为明显，对高技术产业的影响尤为显著。

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Bridging divides with data: Open government data and ESG rating divergence 用数据弥合分歧：政府公开数据与ESG评级分歧

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107491

Ximeng Liu, Fengzheng Wang, Youtao Xiang

Fully unleashing the informational value of public data to mitigate ESG rating divergence has become a crucial driver for motivating corporate engagement in sustainable development. Grounded in cognitive consistency theory, the study explores the effects and mechanisms through which open government data influences ESG divergence. The results demonstrate that open government data significantly reduces ESG rating divergence. Through mechanism analysis, we clarify that enhanced corporate information transparency and strengthened information credibility serve as fundamental channels through which open government data alleviates ESG rating divergence. Heterogeneity tests indicate the influence of open government data on ESG divergence is more pronounced under superior innovation conditions, advanced digital transformation, and smaller firm size. This research contributes to reducing ESG rating divergence, guiding corporate participation in ESG practices, and ultimately advancing sustainable development.

充分释放公共数据的信息价值，以缓解ESG评级差异，已成为激励企业参与可持续发展的关键动力。本研究以认知一致性理论为基础，探讨政府公开数据对ESG差异的影响及其机制。结果表明，政府数据开放显著降低了ESG评级差异。通过机制分析，明确提高企业信息透明度和增强信息可信度是政府数据公开缓解ESG评级分化的根本渠道。异质性检验表明，在创新条件优越、数字化转型超前、企业规模较小的情况下，政府开放数据对企业ESG差异的影响更为显著。本研究有助于减少ESG评级差异，指导企业参与ESG实践，最终促进可持续发展。

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Asymmetric wage and employment dynamics in segmented labour markets 细分劳动力市场中不对称的工资和就业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486

Srinivasan Murali , Abhishek Naresh , Jong Kook Shin , Chetan Subramanian

Using data from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries, we document that regular workers exhibit asymmetric wage and employment dynamics, while contract workers display asymmetric employment but symmetric wage dynamics. Specifically,

(i)

the nominal wage growth of regular workers is positively skewed, while that of contract workers is nearly symmetric, and

(i i)

employment growth for both groups is negatively skewed, with contract employment being less negatively skewed than regular. To account for these patterns, we extend a workhorse business cycle model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs for regular labour and symmetric wage adjustment costs for contract labour, along with symmetric labour adjustment costs for the regular sector. Our calibrated model shows that the presence of contract labour relaxes the constraint imposed by downward nominal wage rigidity, thereby reducing the optimal grease inflation towards zero.

使用印度年度产业调查的数据，我们证明了正规工表现出不对称的工资和就业动态，而合同工表现出不对称的就业但对称的工资动态。具体来说，(i)正规工的名义工资增长是正倾斜的，而合同工的名义工资增长几乎是对称的，（ii）这两个群体的就业增长都是负倾斜的，合同工的负倾斜程度低于正规工。为了解释这些模式，我们扩展了一个主力商业周期模型，其中包括常规劳动力的不对称工资调整成本和合同工的对称工资调整成本，以及常规部门的对称劳动力调整成本。我们的校准模型显示，合同工的存在放松了名义工资向下刚性所施加的约束，从而将最佳油脂通胀降至零。

引用次数: 0

IPR protection and markup in China: Balancing innovation incentives and markup distortions 中国的知识产权保护与加价：平衡创新激励与加价扭曲

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488

Lihao Wang , Jiwen Chai , Song Nie , Shangrong Han

In the context of rising markups worldwide, this study examines the role of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in influencing firm-level markups and the mechanisms underlying this effect. Theoretically, we show that stronger IPR protection enhances firms’ innovation incentives, thereby increasing their pricing power. Empirically, using a quasinatural experiment and firm-level data from Chinese A-share-listed companies (2001–2020), we find that more robust IPR policies significantly increase patenting, citations and intangible assets—evidence of enhanced innovation. These policies also lead to higher markups, indicating increased market power. The effects are greater among high-tech and large firms. Results remain robust to a range of sensitivity checks and endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a key trade-off: while IPR reforms promote innovation, they may also distort competition through markup inflation. Therefore, policymakers should balance innovation incentives with measures to preserve market contestability, particularly in the increasingly intangible economy.

在全球加价上升的背景下，本研究探讨了知识产权保护在影响企业加价方面的作用以及这种影响的机制。从理论上讲，我们证明了知识产权保护的加强增强了企业的创新激励，从而提高了企业的定价能力。通过准自然实验和2001-2020年中国a股上市公司的企业层面数据，我们发现，更强有力的知识产权政策显著增加了专利申请、引用和无形资产——这是创新增强的证据。这些政策还导致了更高的加价，表明市场力量的增强。这种影响在高科技和大型企业中更为明显。结果对一系列敏感性检查和内生性问题保持稳健。我们的研究结果揭示了一个关键的权衡：知识产权改革在促进创新的同时，也可能通过加价通胀扭曲竞争。因此，政策制定者应该平衡创新激励与保持市场竞争力的措施，特别是在日益增长的无形经济中。

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引用次数: 0

Vying for support: Lobbying a legislator with uncertain preferences 争取支持：游说一位不确定偏好的议员

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489

Anne Marie Go , Nikolaos Kokonas , Javier Rivas

We construct a model in which two opposing lobbyists bid for the support of a legislator with an uncertain bias toward either lobbyist. Notably, high bias uncertainty yields lobbyists offering low bids. In contrast, low bias uncertainty makes lobbyists bid aggressively. Finally, for moderate bias uncertainty, we find a nonmonotonic relationship between the legislator’s bias uncertainty and the lobbyists’ bids.

我们构建了一个模型，在这个模型中，两个对立的游说者争取一个立法者的支持，而立法者对其中任何一个游说者都有不确定的偏见。值得注意的是，高偏见不确定性导致游说者出价较低。相比之下，低偏见的不确定性使游说者积极竞标。最后，对于中等偏倚不确定性，我们发现立法者的偏倚不确定性与游说者的出价之间存在非单调关系。

引用次数: 0

Labour market concentration and posted wages: Evidence on wage-setting power from a large online recruitment platform in China 劳动力市场集中度与公示工资：来自中国某大型在线招聘平台的工资制定力证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107482

Xuan Liu, Xiangquan Zeng

Although labour market concentration has received growing academic attention, evidence from developing countries remains limited. This study examines labour market concentration in China using 2016–2022 data from a large online recruitment platform. The results show that labour market concentration significantly reduces posted wages, with particularly pronounced effects for lower-wage positions. Firms with large labour market shares exhibit greater wage-setting power and post significantly lower wages than other employers. In addition, labour market concentration in platform-based employment exerts a stronger downward effect on posted wages than in standard employment. Overall, the findings provide both theoretical and empirical support for policies aimed at mitigating monopsony power in labour markets.

尽管劳动力市场集中度已受到学术界越来越多的关注，但来自发展中国家的证据仍然有限。本研究利用一家大型在线招聘平台2016-2022年的数据，考察了中国劳动力市场的集中度。结果表明，劳动力市场集中度显著降低了公布的工资，对低工资岗位的影响尤为明显。拥有较大劳动力市场份额的公司表现出更大的工资设定权力，并且发布的工资明显低于其他雇主。此外，与标准就业相比，平台就业的劳动力市场集中度对公布工资的下降作用更强。总体而言，研究结果为旨在减轻劳动力市场垄断力量的政策提供了理论和实证支持。

引用次数: 0

Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China 贸易自由化带来的不均衡利益：关税壁垒与中国劳动力迁移

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483

Jiang Wang, Zhenhua Ji, Kai Liu

This study examines how tariff barriers shape internal labor migration in China. While existing literature widely documents trade-induced disparities, less attention studies its impact on worker migrants. We introduce a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanisms and empirically test the predictions using 2000–2015 route-level variations. Foreign tariff reductions bolster regional exports through increased firm entry, survival of lower-productivity firms, export volume expansion, and enhanced export propensity, collectively driving wage growth and migration inflows. Conversely, import tariff cuts precipitate domestic market contraction through reduced settled-firm counts and market exit of lower-productivity producers, suppressing wages and triggering labor outflows. These findings shed new light on labor-migration responses to uneven trade benefits, offering policy insights for mitigating spatial inequality.

本研究探讨关税壁垒如何影响中国内部劳动力迁移。虽然现有文献广泛地记录了贸易引起的差异，但很少有人关注其对工人流动的影响。我们引入了一个理论框架来证明机制，并使用2000-2015年的路线水平变化对预测进行了实证检验。外国关税的降低通过增加企业进入、低生产率企业的生存、出口量的扩大和出口倾向的增强来促进区域出口，共同推动工资增长和移民流入。相反，进口关税的削减通过减少定居企业数量和低生产率生产商的市场退出，导致国内市场收缩，从而抑制工资并引发劳动力外流。这些发现揭示了劳动力迁移对贸易利益不平衡的反应，为缓解空间不平等提供了政策见解。

引用次数: 0

Green finance and bird diversity: Evidence from China 绿色金融与鸟类多样性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107478

Xiaohong Huang , Yizhen Wang , Qianru Huang

We explore the impact of China's pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation (PZGFRI) policy on bird diversity. Based on citizen science data in China from 2015 to 2023, we find that the implementation of China's PZGFRI policy has increased the bird species richness and bird abundance. The results remain valid after a series of robustness tests, including controls for spatial autocorrelation, sample selection bias, instrumental variable test and so forth. Furthermore, mechanism tests indicate that green finance drives biodiversity by protecting habitat, reducing air pollutant emissions, and promoting green innovation. Overall, this study provides an important basis for boosting biodiversity through green finance channels.

我们探讨了中国绿色金融改革创新试验区政策对鸟类多样性的影响。基于2015 - 2023年中国公民科学数据，我们发现中国PZGFRI政策的实施增加了鸟类物种丰富度和鸟类丰度。经过一系列的稳健性检验，包括空间自相关控制、样本选择偏差、工具变量检验等，结果仍然有效。此外，机制测试表明，绿色金融通过保护栖息地、减少大气污染物排放和促进绿色创新来推动生物多样性。总体而言，本研究为通过绿色金融渠道促进生物多样性提供了重要依据。

引用次数: 0

Technological peer pressure and inventor mobility: Evidence from China 技术同侪压力与发明者流动：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485

Geng Chen, Yikai Han

This paper investigates the relationship between Technological Peer Pressure (TPP) and inventor mobility. Using data on 398,734 inventors from 3078 Chinese listed firms over 2007–2021, we find that TPP significantly increases the likelihood of inventor mobility. This conclusion passes a series of robustness tests and mitigates endogeneity issues via the IV-2SLS and PSM-DID models. We identify three mechanisms driving this effect: heightened corporate earnings pressure, increased innovation bubbles, and diminished collaborative culture. This positive TPP-mobility link is weaker for inventors with more co-inventors or star inventors, for firms with more R&D alliances or less myopic management. Overall, our results highlight TPP's critical role in shaping inventor mobility, offering insights for firms to respond to technological competition in the product market.

本文研究了技术同伴压力（TPP）与发明者流动之间的关系。利用2007-2021年3078家中国上市公司398,734名发明人的数据，我们发现TPP显著提高了发明人流动的可能性。这一结论通过了一系列稳健性测试，并通过IV-2SLS和PSM-DID模型缓解了内生性问题。我们确定了驱动这种效应的三种机制：企业盈利压力增加、创新泡沫增加和合作文化减少。对于拥有更多共同发明者或明星发明者的发明者，对于拥有更多研发联盟或较少短视管理的公司来说，这种积极的tpp -流动性联系较弱。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了TPP在塑造发明者流动性方面的关键作用，为企业应对产品市场中的技术竞争提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

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