Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis 乌克兰移民对波兰劳动力市场动态的影响：贝叶斯VAR分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107441

Łukasz Postek , Małgorzata Walerych

This study investigates the impact of immigration shocks on the labour market in Poland, a country that experienced a rapid influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Our paper adds to the literature on the macroeconomic effects of immigration and to the literature that aims to disentangle various labour market shocks, focusing on war-induced immigration. We employ sign-restricted BVAR models and construct novel proxies for immigration inflows to assess their macroeconomic effects for the period 2004–2023. We find that in recent years, immigration shocks slightly lowered unemployment rate and more strongly reduced real wage growth. They also contributed to higher nominal wage growth, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants created significant consumption demand. Our findings suggest that refugee-driven migration affects the economy differently from labour-driven inflows, providing new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.

本研究调查了移民冲击对波兰劳动力市场的影响，波兰在2014年和2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后经历了移民的快速涌入。我们的论文补充了关于移民的宏观经济影响的文献，以及旨在理清各种劳动力市场冲击的文献，重点关注战争引发的移民。我们采用符号限制的BVAR模型，并构建了新的移民流入代理来评估2004-2023年期间移民流入的宏观经济影响。我们发现，近年来，移民冲击略微降低了失业率，但更强烈地降低了实际工资增长。他们还促进了更高的名义工资增长，特别是在2022年之后，当时非工作移民的涌入创造了巨大的消费需求。我们的研究结果表明，难民驱动的移民对经济的影响不同于劳动力驱动的移民流入，这为了解二战以来欧洲最大的难民危机的宏观经济后果提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Local university expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from skilled labor supply shocks and innovation efficiency 地方大学扩张与企业创新：来自熟练劳动力供给冲击与创新效率的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107446

Guang-Zhao Yang , Qinru Si , Liang Liu

This study examines whether expanding the local supply of highly educated labor raises firm innovation. Existing research links higher-education expansion to aggregate human capital and firm performance but provides limited city-level evidence on firm innovation. Exploiting staggered openings of undergraduate universities across Chinese prefecture-level cities during 2008–2022, and combining city data with listed-firm records, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that university openings increase local firms’ patent output and improve innovation efficiency, allowing firms to achieve higher innovative outcomes without additional R&D expenditure, while intensified labor market competition reduces labor costs and further supports R&D activity. By contrast, the creation of vocational colleges or elite universities has only modest effects on local firm innovation, consistent with vocational graduates mainly entering non-R&D jobs and with high mobility among graduates of prestigious universities. These results highlight the importance of local skilled-labor availability and graduate retention for strengthening regional innovation capacity.

本研究考察了扩大高学历劳动力的本地供给是否会促进企业创新。现有的研究将高等教育扩张与人力资本总量和企业绩效联系起来，但在城市层面上对企业创新提供的证据有限。利用2008-2022年间中国地级市本科院校的交错开放，并将城市数据与上市公司记录相结合，我们实施了差异中的差异设计。研究发现，大学开放增加了本地企业的专利产出，提高了创新效率，使企业在不增加研发支出的情况下获得更高的创新成果，而劳动力市场竞争加剧降低了劳动力成本，进一步支持了研发活动。相比之下，职业学院或精英大学的创建对当地企业创新的影响不大，这与职业学院毕业生主要进入非研发工作以及名牌大学毕业生之间的高流动性是一致的。这些结果突出了当地熟练劳动力的可获得性和毕业生保留对增强区域创新能力的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

How institutions shape the economic returns to investment in European regions? 制度如何影响欧洲地区投资的经济回报？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107445

Inmaculada C. Álvarez , Javier Barbero , Luis Orea , Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

Most studies of institutional quality and regional growth assume uniform effects across territories. However, this may mask crucial regional heterogeneity, with direct policy implications. We use a latent class framework applied to 230 EU regions over 2009–2017 to identify institution-driven regional parameter groups, and to examine both average effects and catching-up effects associated with changes in the institutional environment. We demonstrate that institutional quality generates highly variable returns to investment in physical capital and innovation. Nordic and Central European regions show highest returns to physical capital and R&D investment, whereas less-developed regions benefit most from education spending. Crucially, we find that improving government quality not only raises average returns but also promotes territorial cohesion. By contrast, regional autonomy shows limited impact on returns. Our findings challenge the one-size-fits-all approach to cohesion policy and indicate that cohesion policy should explicitly promote institutional improvements in addition to capital deployment.

大多数关于制度质量和区域增长的研究假设了跨地区的统一效应。然而，这可能掩盖了具有直接政策影响的关键区域异质性。我们使用了一个潜在类别框架，应用于2009-2017年230个欧盟地区，以确定制度驱动的区域参数组，并检查与制度环境变化相关的平均效应和追赶效应。我们证明，制度质量会产生高度可变的实物资本和创新投资回报。北欧和中欧地区的实物资本和研发投资回报率最高，而欠发达地区从教育支出中获益最多。关键是，我们发现提高政府质量不仅能提高平均回报，还能促进区域凝聚力。相比之下，区域自治对回报率的影响有限。我们的研究结果对“一刀切”的凝聚力政策提出了挑战，并表明凝聚力政策除了资本配置外，还应明确促进制度改进。

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引用次数: 0

Producing more, reproducing less: The demographic costs of China's export success 生产更多，再生产更少：中国出口成功的人口成本

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107440

Yumeng Yang, Yunong Li, Han Sheng, Mao Zhou

This study investigates the impact of export growth on fertility, coinciding with the abolition of the One-child Policy and subsequent relaxation of birth control policies in China. Using micro-level survey data, we employ a shift-share instrumental variables strategy to examine the causal effects. Our analysis reveals that married women residing in prefectures with greater export growth are significantly less likely to give birth. Additional analysis shows that export growth raises married women's wages, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of fertility and shifting household resource allocation by reducing maternal time devoted to childcare while boosting monetary investment in children's education. Social norms also emerge as an essential channel. These findings offer new insights into how economic development shapes demographic outcomes and provide implications for developing more women-supportive environments that reconcile labor market participation with family formation.

本研究调查了出口增长对生育率的影响，恰逢中国取消独生子女政策和随后放松生育控制政策。利用微观层面的调查数据，我们采用了偏移份额工具变量策略来检验因果关系。我们的分析显示，居住在出口增长较大的县的已婚妇女生育的可能性明显较低。其他分析表明，出口增长提高了已婚妇女的工资，从而增加了生育的机会成本，并通过减少母亲用于育儿的时间来转移家庭资源配置，同时增加了对儿童教育的货币投资。社会规范也是一个重要的渠道。这些发现为经济发展如何影响人口结果提供了新的见解，并为发展更多支持妇女的环境提供了启示，这些环境将劳动力市场参与与家庭形成协调起来。

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the role of digital finance in technological catch-up: A multisector growth model with firm-level evidence 揭示数字金融在技术追赶中的作用：一个具有企业层面证据的多部门增长模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107437

Hao Xu

This study develops a multisector endogenous growth model to examine how digital finance affects latecomer firms' technological catch-up and empirically tests this relationship using Chinese firm-level panel data from 2011 to 2023. The results show that digital finance promotes catch-up by reducing financial capital misallocation, enhancing knowledge spillover, and strengthening entrepreneurial innovation spirit. This effect is stronger for latecomer firms operating in industries where frontier firms hold greater structural advantages, those facing a larger frontier knowledge gap, those emphasizing substantive innovation strategies, and those in regions with more developed digital industries. In addition, intellectual property protection exerts a nonlinear moderating effect, first reinforcing and then diminishing digital finance's influence on technological catch-up. Overall, the findings deepen understanding of digital finance's role and offer policy insights for building a fair innovation ecosystem that supports inclusive growth.

本研究建立了一个多部门内生增长模型来检验数字金融如何影响后发企业的技术追赶，并使用2011年至2023年的中国企业层面面板数据对这种关系进行了实证检验。结果表明，数字金融通过减少金融资本错配、增强知识外溢、增强创业创新精神等方式促进赶超。对于处于前沿企业结构优势较大的行业、前沿知识差距较大的行业、强调实质性创新战略的行业以及数字产业发达地区的后发企业，这种效应更强。此外，知识产权保护具有非线性调节作用，先增强后减弱数字金融对技术追赶的影响。总体而言，研究结果加深了对数字金融作用的理解，并为建立支持包容性增长的公平创新生态系统提供了政策见解。

引用次数: 0

International spillovers of US monetary policy on inequality 美国货币政策对不平等的国际溢出效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439

Pradyumna Dash , Ankit Kumar , Chetan Subramanian

This study investigates the effects of U.S. monetary policy on income inequality in open economies from 1970 to 2016. We find that a 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate leads to a cumulative reduction of about 0.15% in income inequality over three years. Interestingly, we show that the effect of US monetary policy on inequality varies over time. The impact also varies by exchange rate regime: in flexible regimes, the reduction can reach nearly 0.3%, while in pegged regimes, it diminishes to around 0.13%. This impact in pegged regimes is influenced by wage rigidity and labor market regulations in the economy. To explain these results, we develop a two-agent small open economy model that incorporates rigid wages, highlighting the link between monetary policy and inequality dynamics.

本研究调查了1970年至2016年开放经济体中美国货币政策对收入不平等的影响。我们发现，联邦基金利率每提高100个基点，三年内收入不平等就会累计减少约0.15%。有趣的是，我们表明，美国货币政策对不平等的影响随时间而变化。影响也因汇率制度而异：在灵活的汇率制度下，降幅可达近0.3%，而在钉住汇率制度下，降幅降至0.13%左右。钉住汇率制度的这种影响受到经济中工资刚性和劳动力市场监管的影响。为了解释这些结果，我们开发了一个包含刚性工资的双代理小型开放经济模型，突出了货币政策与不平等动态之间的联系。

引用次数: 0

Environmental regulation, green innovation, and productivity: Crowding-out or reallocation? 环境监管、绿色创新与生产力：挤出还是再配置？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107418

Yi Jiang (伊江) , Richard S.J. Tol

Does environmental regulation enhance firm productivity through reallocation toward green innovation, conditional on firms' pollution intensity and productivity levels? We analyze Chinese listed firms (2010–2018) using a Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse recursive framework, a three-equation causal chain that links regulation, innovation, and productivity. We find that a variety of environmental policies raise compliance costs, crowding-out average R&D investment. Non-green innovation yields higher productivity returns in low-pollution firms and exhibits a U-shaped return pattern across the productivity distribution, whereas green innovation's returns follow an inverted-U-shaped profile, peaking at medium-high productivity—where, for high-pollution firms, they exceed those of non-green innovation, boosting TFP. These results provide mechanism-based evidence for the strong Porter hypothesis as a context-dependent reconfiguration of technological and productive efficiency under regulatory stimuli. Policy support for green innovation should be targeted at high-pollution, mid-to-high-productivity firms based on verifiable outcomes, turning the crowding-out of R&D into productive reallocation.

环境监管是否通过对绿色创新的再配置来提高企业生产率，这取决于企业的污染强度和生产率水平？我们使用cr - duguet - mairesse递归框架（一个连接监管、创新和生产率的三方程因果链）对中国上市公司（2010-2018）进行了分析。我们发现，各种环境政策提高了合规成本，挤出了平均研发投资。在低污染企业中，非绿色创新的生产率回报更高，在生产率分布上呈现u型回报模式，而绿色创新的回报遵循倒u型曲线，在中高生产率处达到峰值，在高污染企业中，它们超过了非绿色创新的回报，从而提高了全要素生产率。这些结果为强有力的波特假设提供了基于机制的证据，即在监管刺激下技术和生产效率的情境依赖重构。绿色创新的政策支持应基于可验证的结果，针对高污染、中高生产率的企业，将研发的挤出转化为生产力的再配置。

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引用次数: 0

Matching for three: The search activities of workers, firms, and employment services 匹配三：工人、企业和就业服务的搜索活动

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434

Tobias Hartl , Christian Hutter , Enzo Weber

The standard labour market matching function neglects a substantial variation of hirings. A crucial driver of this latent part is the search intensity of job seekers and firms, as well as the placement intensity of employment agencies. However, there is still a lack of integration of all three search and placement intensities into a unified theoretical framework. Their combined labour market effects have not been estimated so far. We feed all three intensities into the theoretical framework of a labour market matching function to estimate their impact on the job finding rate – effects which are not settled a priori. This could provide important stylised facts for subsequent theory building. For measuring the search and placement intensities, we use big data on online activity obtained from the job exchange of the German Federal Employment Agency and from its internal placement-software. The results show that all three intensities significantly contribute to the variation in job findings beyond vacancies and unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, reduced search intensities accounted for 44 percent of lost hirings and 16 percent of the labour market related increase in unemployment.

标准的劳动力市场匹配函数忽略了雇佣的实质性变化。这一潜在部分的关键驱动因素是求职者和企业的搜索强度，以及职业介绍所的安置强度。然而，目前还没有将这三种搜索和安置强度整合成一个统一的理论框架。迄今为止，它们对劳动力市场的综合影响尚未得到估计。我们将这三种强度输入到劳动力市场匹配函数的理论框架中，以估计它们对求职率的影响——这些影响不是先验的。这可以为后续的理论构建提供重要的程式化事实。为了衡量求职和就业的强度，我们使用了来自德国联邦就业局（German Federal Employment Agency）的职业交流及其内部就业软件的在线活动大数据。结果表明，除了空缺和失业率之外，这三种强度都显著影响了就业结果的变化。在2019冠状病毒病危机期间，搜索强度的降低占失业人数的44%，占劳动力市场相关失业人数的16%。

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引用次数: 0

Imported intangible capital and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from 42 economies 进口无形资本与部门经济增长：来自42个经济体的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429

Shuyue Liu, Radhika Lahiri, Annastiina Silvennoinen

This paper investigates the impact of imported intangible capital on value added. While existing studies confirm the importance of intangible capital for growth, its distinct effects by source, imported versus domestic, remain underexplored. Using data from the World Input-Output Database for 2000–2014, we employ a two-way fixed effects model to estimate both long- and short-term impacts. The results show that intangible capital generally increases value added in the long run but reduces it in the short run due to adjustment costs before productivity gains are realised. Moreover, imported intangibles exert stronger negative short-term effects than domestic ones. However, this pattern reverses after the global financial crisis, suggesting that multinational firms are more resilient to shocks. These findings provide new insights into the role of intangible capital on economic growth and imply the need for institutional reform and financial support to minimise short-term adjustment costs.

本文研究了进口无形资本对增加价值的影响。虽然现有的研究证实了无形资本对增长的重要性，但其不同来源（进口与国内）的不同影响仍未得到充分探讨。利用2000-2014年世界投入产出数据库的数据，我们采用双向固定效应模型来估计长期和短期影响。研究结果表明，无形资本在长期总体上增加了企业的增加值，但在短期内由于生产力收益实现前的调整成本而降低了企业的增加值。此外，进口无形资产的短期负面效应强于国内无形资产。然而，在全球金融危机之后，这种模式发生了逆转，这表明跨国公司对冲击的抵御能力更强。这些发现为无形资本对经济增长的作用提供了新的见解，并暗示需要进行制度改革和金融支持，以尽量减少短期调整成本。

引用次数: 0

When the bordering levee breaks: The impact of floods on corporate financialization in China 当堤防决口：洪水对中国企业金融化的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107432

Ziqing Wu , Leyi Chen , Lingpeng Shi

This paper investigates the impact of floods on corporate financialization in China. We find that flood shocks significantly increase corporate financialization by firms in non-disaster areas within the same prefecture-level city. Mechanism analysis shows that lower financing costs and expanded financing sizes are the main drivers. This suggests that local governments reallocate resources to support unaffected regions during adverse shocks, yet part of this support is channeled into financial assets rather than productive investments. Further analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced with the severity of floods and for large firms. Our findings reveal a critical unintended consequence of government intervention in disaster response, highlighting the need for policy designs that guard against such financial resource misallocation. This study enriches our understanding of how adverse shocks affect corporate financial strategies.

本文研究了洪水对中国企业金融化的影响。我们发现，洪水冲击显著增加了同一地级市内非灾区企业的企业金融化。机制分析表明，融资成本降低和融资规模扩大是主要驱动因素。这表明，在不利冲击期间，地方政府重新配置资源，以支持未受影响的地区，但其中一部分支持流向了金融资产，而非生产性投资。进一步的分析表明，这种影响随着洪水的严重程度和对大公司的影响更为明显。我们的研究结果揭示了政府干预灾害应对的一个关键的意外后果，强调了防止此类财政资源错配的政策设计的必要性。本研究丰富了我们对不利冲击如何影响企业财务战略的理解。

引用次数: 0

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