Economic Modelling最新文献

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Sale versus licensing of a cost-reducing innovation by an outside patentholder 外部专利所有人对降低成本的创新的销售与许可

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422

Manel Antelo , Lluís Bru

We investigate an outside patentholder's choice between selling and licensing a cost-reducing innovation to firms that produce differentiated goods in a Cournot duopoly. Sale implies the transfer of ownership rights, whereas licensing—by the patentholder directly or by any assignee—occurs through an endogenously chosen two-part tariff contract. We find that the patentholder has an incentive to sell the innovation (to a single firm that, in turn, licences it to its competitor) only when the goods are close substitutes and the innovation size is sufficiently minimal. Otherwise, the patentholder prefers to licence the innovation to both firms. Although the transfer of innovation, whether through outright sale or licensing, always improves aggregate welfare compared with the pre-transfer scenario, consumer surplus is reduced when the transfer is made by means of sales. Therefore, a socially optimal public policy should aim at banning the sale of outside innovations or, at least, preventing their subsequent licensing by the assignee from within the industry.

我们研究了在古诺双头垄断中，外部专利所有人在向生产差异化产品的公司出售和许可降低成本的创新之间的选择。销售意味着所有权的转移，而许可——由专利所有人直接或由任何受让人——通过内生选择的两部分关税合同发生。我们发现，只有当产品是接近的替代品，且创新规模足够小时，专利持有人才有动机出售创新（给一家公司，而这家公司又将其授权给竞争对手）。否则，专利持有人更愿意将创新授权给两家公司。虽然与转移前相比，创新的转移，无论是通过直接销售还是许可，总是能提高总福利，但当以销售方式进行转移时，消费者剩余会减少。因此，一项社会最优的公共政策应旨在禁止出售外部创新，或者至少防止受让人随后在行业内对其进行许可。

引用次数: 0

From school to work: How alumni networks on LinkedIn shape PhD journeys 从学校到工作：LinkedIn上的校友网络如何塑造博士之旅

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107419

Haoqian Zou

This paper explores how alumni networks shape the school-to-work migration of PhD graduates entering nonacademic sectors. Using résumés collected from LinkedIn, I assembled a dataset of roughly 300,000 PhD graduates from 145 R1 universities between 1980 and 2016. The dataset provides detailed information on education and employment histories, enabling analysis of alumni stock and migration flows across school–state pairs. I employ panel regressions at the school–destination level, incorporating origin-year, destination-year, and origin–destination interactive fixed effects to address omitted-variable bias. The results show that a larger number of managerial alumni is positively associated with migration, likely reflecting a supportive role for new graduates. Conversely, more junior alumni are linked to lower migration, suggesting potential competitive pressures.

本文探讨了校友网络如何影响博士毕业生进入非学术领域的从学校到工作的迁移。我利用从领英（LinkedIn）上收集的数据，收集了1980年至2016年间来自145所R1大学的大约30万名博士毕业生的数据集。该数据集提供了有关教育和就业历史的详细信息，可以分析校友存量和跨学校州对的移民流动。我采用了学校-目的地水平的面板回归，结合了起源年、目的地年和起源-目的地的互动固定效应，以解决遗漏的变量偏差。结果显示，更多的管理校友与移民呈正相关，可能反映了新毕业生的支持作用。相反，更多资历较浅的校友与较低的移民率有关，这表明存在潜在的竞争压力。

引用次数: 0

The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms 绿色债券发行对同行企业绿色并购的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417

Shiqi Wang , Yongqiao Wang

This study investigates the impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions (GM&As) of peer firms. Using data from China's A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2022, we employ staggered DID model to demonstrate that green bond issuances can stimulate GM&A activities of peer firms. The stimulating effect is mainly attributable to competition rather than environmental penalty pressure. Green bond issuances also raise executives' environmental awareness and attract greater attention from green investors in peer firms, thereby reinforcing GM&A activities. The effect is more pronounced for firms located in regions with stricter environmental regulation, with greater media attention, and classified as heavily polluting. Moreover, GM&As enable peer firms to significantly enhance their green technological innovation and environmental performance. These findings provide new evidence on how green financial instruments shape firms' strategic behaviour and offer implications for a more effective green finance system.

本研究探讨绿色债券发行对同业企业绿色并购的影响。本文利用2012 - 2022年中国A股上市公司的数据，采用交错DID模型验证了绿色债券发行对同行公司gm& A活动的刺激作用。刺激效应主要来自竞争而非环境处罚压力。绿色债券的发行也提高了高管的环保意识，吸引了同行绿色投资者的更多关注，从而加强了GM&；A活动。对于那些位于环境监管更严格、媒体关注度更高、污染严重的地区的公司来说，这种影响更为明显。此外，GM&；As使同行企业的绿色技术创新和环境绩效显著提高。这些发现为绿色金融工具如何塑造企业的战略行为提供了新的证据，并为建立更有效的绿色金融体系提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

Green taxes, the environment, and the economy: A theoretical analysis using an overlapping generations model with endogenous longevity 绿色税收、环境与经济：基于具有内生寿命的重叠代模型的理论分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107415

Sichao Wei , David Aadland

Green taxes are designed to mitigate the environmental pollution that causes millions of premature deaths worldwide each year. Using an overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous longevity, we examine how environmental conditions influence the effectiveness of green taxes. A key endogenous mechanism links changes in environmental quality to the economy through health effects, shaping the policy–environment boundaries for dynamics and output maximization. The model predicts that regions with low environmental carrying capacity (ECC) and low green tax rates will experience environmental and economic cycles, leading to intergenerational inequality, and fail to maximize output. These cycles can be avoided, and output maximized, if such regions raise their green tax rates. By contrast, in regions with higher ECC, the green tax rate that maximizes output may not eliminate cycles. Our findings provide insights into two dimensions of compatibility: (1) the alignment between policy stringency and environmental conditions, and (2) the compatibility of policy objectives aimed at eliminating cycles and maximizing output.

绿色税旨在减轻每年导致全球数百万人过早死亡的环境污染。利用具有内生寿命的重叠代（OLG）模型，我们研究了环境条件如何影响环保税的有效性。一个关键的内生机制通过健康效应将环境质量的变化与经济联系起来，形成动态和产出最大化的政策-环境边界。该模型预测，低环境承载力（ECC）和低绿色税率的地区将经历环境和经济周期，导致代际不平等，无法实现产出最大化。如果这些地区提高绿色税率，就可以避免这些循环，并实现产出最大化。相比之下，在ECC较高的地区，最大化产出的绿色税率可能不会消除周期。我们的研究结果为兼容性的两个维度提供了见解：(1)政策严格性与环境条件之间的一致性；(2)旨在消除周期和最大化产出的政策目标的兼容性。

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引用次数: 0

Knowledge obsolescence, human capital inequality, and growth: A network perspective in an automated knowledge society 知识过时、人力资本不平等与增长：自动化知识社会的网络视角

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107416

Philipp Tobias Hohn , Torben Klarl

This paper suggests a micro-founded theory of human capital accumulation that is embedded in an endogenous growth model in which rational and cognitively constrained agents allocate time between production and networking activities within a knowledge-diffusion structure. The framework includes three important mechanisms: (i) learning in a knowledge network; (ii) possible skill downgrading due to knowledge obsolescence; and (iii) fear of technological unemployment due to automation. The analysis distinguishes between fully rational agents and cognitively constrained agents, demonstrating that limited cognitive capacity impedes optimal networking behavior and amplifies human capital inequality. Numerical simulations and comparative dynamics further indicate that higher rates of knowledge obsolescence slow human capital accumulation, weaken growth, and disproportionately burden cognitively constrained individuals, potentially trapping the economy in a low-skill, stagnant equilibrium.

本文提出了一种嵌入内生增长模型的微观人力资本积累理论，在内生增长模型中，理性和认知约束的主体在知识扩散结构中在生产和网络活动之间分配时间。该框架包括三个重要机制：(i)在知识网络中学习；（ii）由于知识过时而可能导致的技能降级；（三）对自动化带来的技术性失业的恐惧。该分析区分了完全理性的代理人和认知受限的代理人，表明有限的认知能力阻碍了最优的网络行为并放大了人力资本不平等。数值模拟和比较动态进一步表明，较高的知识过时率会减缓人力资本积累，削弱增长，并给认知受限的个人造成不成比例的负担，可能使经济陷入低技能停滞的均衡状态。

引用次数: 0

Economic policy uncertainty, ESG practices, and investment inefficiency in U.S. firms 美国企业的经济政策不确定性、ESG实践与投资效率低下

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107414

Mahbouba Nasraoui , Aymen Ajina , Fabrice Herve

This study examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences the efficiency of corporate investments and whether strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices impact this relationship. Using data on U.S. firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that higher EPU leads to greater investment inefficiency, including both under- and overinvestment. When faced with uncertainty, firms tend to favor R&D over capital expenditures, reflecting a preference for flexibility. We also show that information asymmetry intensifies the negative impact of uncertainty on investment decisions. Importantly, robust ESG practices help mitigate the adverse impact of EPU by easing financial constraints and reducing information asymmetry. These results highlight the value of ESG as a stabilizing force in uncertain environments. More broadly, the study underscores the importance of integrating ESG considerations into corporate strategies to foster stability and sustainable growth amid evolving economic conditions.

本研究探讨了经济政策不确定性（EPU）如何影响企业投资效率，以及强有力的环境、社会和治理（ESG）实践是否会影响这种关系。利用2010年至2022年美国企业的数据，我们发现较高的EPU导致更大的投资效率低下，包括投资不足和过度投资。当面临不确定性时，公司倾向于支持研发而不是资本支出，这反映了对灵活性的偏好。我们还发现信息不对称加剧了不确定性对投资决策的负面影响。重要的是，稳健的ESG实践通过缓解财务约束和减少信息不对称，有助于减轻EPU的不利影响。这些结果突出了ESG在不确定环境中作为稳定力量的价值。更广泛地说，该研究强调了在不断变化的经济条件下，将ESG因素纳入企业战略以促进稳定和可持续增长的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Buyer preferences for quality in first-sale fish markets 首次销售鱼市场的买家对品质的偏好

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107403

François-Charles Wolff

This paper examines buyers' preferences for quality in French first-sale fish markets. Using data covering 72 million transactions between 2011 and 2022, we first estimate quality premiums with an exact matching procedure that controls for product availability. We then apply interval regression models to explain differences in buyers’ willingness-to-pay for high-quality fish. Results show substantial heterogeneity in quality premiums across both lots and species. Econometric estimates further reveal that quality premiums decline with lot size and vary with buyer characteristics. Retailers and supermarkets pay more for high-quality fish, while wholesalers, processors, and canners are less sensitive to quality. These findings highlight how value from quality is distributed along the supply chain and which types of buyers capture it.

本文考察了法国首次销售鱼市场中买家对质量的偏好。使用涵盖2011年至2022年间7200万笔交易的数据，我们首先通过控制产品可用性的精确匹配程序估算质量溢价。然后，我们应用区间回归模型来解释买家对优质鱼类的支付意愿差异。结果显示，不同批次和物种的质量溢价存在很大的异质性。计量经济学估计进一步表明，质量溢价随批量大小而下降，并随买方特征而变化。零售商和超市为高质量的鱼支付更高的价格，而批发商、加工商和罐头制造商对质量不那么敏感。这些发现强调了质量价值是如何沿着供应链分布的，以及哪些类型的买家获得了质量价值。

引用次数: 0

Media ESG sentiment and the cost of debt: Evidence from China 媒体ESG情绪与债务成本：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107398

Guoying Deng, Qiyun Deng, Jingzhou Yan

This study investigates how media ESG sentiment affects corporate cost of debt. Existing literature primarily focuses on firms’ own ESG performance and disclosure, with limited attention to the role of media ESG coverage in corporate financing. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies covering 2007–2022, we develop a theoretical model and empirically examine this relationship. We find that positive media ESG sentiment significantly reduces corporate cost of debt by 3.76% for a one-standard-deviation increase. Our analysis reveals that media sentiment operates through three distinct channels: reducing information asymmetry, enhancing investor confidence, and facilitating support from policy-oriented banks. Cross-sectionally, the effect is more pronounced for firms with lower social reputation, higher ESG rating dispersion, inadequate ESG disclosure, smaller size and non-SOEs. These findings offer new insights into how external information intermediaries shape sustainable finance markets and provide implications for improving ESG information systems in emerging economies.

本研究探讨媒体ESG情绪如何影响企业债务成本。现有文献主要关注企业自身的ESG绩效和信息披露，对媒体ESG报道在企业融资中的作用关注有限。利用中国a股上市公司2007-2022年的数据，我们建立了一个理论模型，并对这种关系进行了实证检验。我们发现，积极的媒体ESG情绪在一个标准差的增长下，显著降低了企业债务成本3.76%。我们的分析表明，媒体情绪通过三个不同的渠道发挥作用：减少信息不对称，增强投资者信心，促进政策性银行的支持。从横截面上看，社会声誉较低、ESG评级分散程度较高、ESG信息披露不充分、规模较小和非国有企业的影响更为明显。这些发现为了解外部信息中介机构如何塑造可持续金融市场提供了新的见解，并为改善新兴经济体的ESG信息系统提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

China’s technological rise and its global welfare effects 中国的技术崛起及其全球福利效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407

Hui Li , Wenzhuo Lu , Aoxin Wang , Xiaochen Xie

This paper examines how China’s technological progress has evolved since 1979 and its impact on global welfare. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model and data from the 50 largest economies, we estimate China’s technological trajectory over time. Although China still trails world leaders such as the United States, it has substantially closed the gap with advanced economies. Counterfactual analysis shows that had China’s technology remained at its WTO accession level, global trade gains would be 3.47% lower. Conversely, a 2.5% reduction in trade costs under the Belt and Road Initiative could raise welfare gains from China’s progress by 2.92%. Projections suggest that continued upgrading, together with China’s economic scale, will further shape global trade outcomes. The results highlight both the opportunities and challenges China’s technological trajectory poses for the world economy.

本文考察了中国自1979年以来的技术进步及其对全球福利的影响。使用多国李嘉图贸易模型和来自50个最大经济体的数据，我们估计了中国随时间的技术轨迹。虽然中国仍然落后于美国等世界领先国家，但它已经大大缩小了与发达经济体的差距。反事实分析表明，如果中国的技术水平保持在加入WTO时的水平，全球贸易收益将降低3.47%。相反，在“一带一路”倡议下，贸易成本每降低2.5%，中国的福利收益就会提高2.92%。预测表明，持续升级加上中国的经济规模，将进一步影响全球贸易结果。研究结果凸显了中国的技术发展轨迹给世界经济带来的机遇和挑战。

引用次数: 0

Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China 公共数据开放能减少边界污染吗？来自中国省际相邻城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405

Peiyu Li , Hanmei Zhou , Xinzhi Liu , Liping Li

Boundary regions face persistent challenges in pollution control due to fragmented regulatory responsibilities and weak coordination. Public data openness (PDO) offers a new avenue for addressing boundary pollution (BP) by reducing market barriers and strengthening collaborative governance. Using China's PDO rollout as a quasinatural experiment and drawing on data from interprovincial neighboring cities, this study evaluates PDO's impact on BP. The results show that PDO significantly lowers BP without causing pollution displacement, primarily by promoting market integration and intensifying environmental constraints. Its effectiveness also varies according to officials' characteristics, local governance capacity, and the degree of interregional coordination. Analysis of platform data features further indicates that improving data utilization and expanding economic and environmental datasets are crucial for maximizing policy effectiveness. Additional evidence reveals that PDO brings notable economic benefits. Overall, these findings broaden the understanding of PDO and offer important insights for advancing cross-regional environmental governance.

由于监管责任分散、协调不力，边界地区在污染治理方面面临持续挑战。公共数据开放（PDO）通过减少市场壁垒和加强协作治理，为解决边界污染（BP）提供了新的途径。本研究以中国推出PDO作为准自然实验，并借鉴省际相邻城市的数据，评估了PDO对BP的影响。结果表明，PDO主要通过促进市场一体化和强化环境约束，在不造成污染置换的情况下显著降低BP；其有效性也因官员的特点、地方治理能力和区域间协调程度而异。对平台数据特征的分析进一步表明，提高数据利用率和扩大经济和环境数据集对于最大限度地提高政策有效性至关重要。其他证据表明，PDO带来了显著的经济效益。总体而言，这些发现拓宽了对PDO的理解，并为推进跨区域环境治理提供了重要见解。

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Economic Modelling

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