Economic Modelling最新文献

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What drives growth transitions in India? Evidence from a Markov switching analysis of regime dynamics 是什么推动了印度的增长转型？来自制度动力学的马尔可夫转换分析的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107426

Vineeta Sharma

Growth transitions in India, identified through structural break models, often yield break dates closely aligned with recession periods. Since recessions have been found to be associated with persistent output losses, this underscores the regime dependent nature of output dynamics. This paper examines growth transitions in India as cyclical regime shifts, employing a Markov switching framework to identify three growth regimes - recessionary, moderate, and high growth during 1951–2022. It further examines the influence of domestic, external, and policy variables on regime-specific growth and transition probabilities. Results indicate that investment, productivity gains, and accommodative monetary policy drive growth during moderate regimes. However, rapid credit expansion and rising income inequality undermine high growth sustainability. While investment and monetary easing support recovery from recessions, fiscal policy is effective primarily in high-growth periods and is counterproductive during downturns. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these results across alternative model specifications and sample periods.

通过结构性断裂模型确定的印度的增长转型，往往与衰退时期密切相关。由于经济衰退已被发现与持续的产出损失有关，这突显了产出动态的制度依赖性质。本文考察了印度在周期性体制转变过程中的增长转型，采用马尔可夫转换框架确定了1951-2022年期间的三种增长体制——衰退、温和和高增长。它进一步研究了国内、外部和政策变量对特定政权的增长和过渡概率的影响。结果表明，在温和体制下，投资、生产率提高和宽松的货币政策推动了经济增长。然而，信贷快速扩张和收入不平等加剧削弱了高增长的可持续性。虽然投资和货币宽松政策支持经济从衰退中复苏，但财政政策主要在高增长时期有效，在经济低迷时期适得其反。鲁棒性检查确认了这些结果在不同模型规格和样本周期中的稳定性。

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引用次数: 0

The dark side of environmental judicial specialization: Corporate labor income share in China 环境司法专业化的黑暗面：中国企业劳动收入占比

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107435

Lianchao Yu , Lele Zhu , Jinting Dong

Although prior research has largely emphasized the benefits of environmental judicial specialization, its potential adverse effects remain understudied. Using a multiperiod difference-in-differences design within the quasi-experimental setting of China's environmental court establishment (ECE), this study examines how ECE influences corporate labor income share (CLIS). The findings show that ECE significantly reduces CLIS. Decomposition analysis indicates that although ECE raises labor productivity, it does not generate corresponding increases in employee compensation, thereby suppressing CLIS. Mechanism analysis shows that ECE promotes investment structure optimization and technological innovation but simultaneously encourages capital-biased income allocation that further reduces CLIS. Cross-sectional evidence reveals that the negative effect is stronger in regions with weaker wage bargaining power; in capital-intensive, highly competitive, and heavily polluting industries; and among privately owned firms and those with poorer social responsibility performance. Governance mechanism analysis demonstrates that the employee director system and employee stock ownership plan can mitigate this adverse influence. Overall, the study uncovers overlooked distributional consequences of environmental judicial specialization and identifies effective compensatory governance mechanisms.

虽然先前的研究在很大程度上强调了环境司法专业化的好处，但其潜在的不利影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究采用中国环境法院设立（ECE）的准实验设置下的多期差异设计，考察了ECE如何影响企业劳动收入份额（CLIS）。研究结果表明，ECE可显著降低CLIS。分解分析表明，ECE虽然提高了劳动生产率，但并没有相应提高员工薪酬，从而抑制了CLIS。机制分析表明，欧洲经济合作促进了投资结构优化和技术创新，但同时鼓励了资本偏倚的收入分配，从而进一步降低了CLIS。横断面证据显示，工资议价能力越弱的地区，负面效应越强；在资本密集、竞争激烈、污染严重的行业；在私营企业和社会责任表现较差的企业中也是如此。治理机制分析表明，员工董事制度和员工持股计划可以缓解这一不利影响。总体而言，研究揭示了被忽视的环境司法专业化的分配后果，并确定了有效的补偿治理机制。

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引用次数: 0

From activism to efficiency: Does ESG shareholder engagement mitigate credit misallocation? 从激进主义到效率：ESG股东参与能否缓解信贷错配？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107436

Tayier Tudi , Mingjie Ni

This study investigates whether and how ESG shareholder engagement enhances the efficiency of corporate credit allocation in China. Using panel data on non-financial listed firms from 2008 to 2022, we find that greater equity ownership by ESG mutual funds significantly mitigates corporate credit misallocation. Guided by information asymmetry and agency theories, the results indicate that ESG investors improve credit allocation efficiency by easing financing constraints and enhancing investment efficiency. The effects are more pronounced in firms with stronger internal governance and higher transparency, but weaker in those facing severe information frictions. Overall, the evidence underscores that ESG-driven external governance complements internal control mechanisms and contributes to more efficient capital allocation. Strengthening ESG investment and disclosure practices can therefore foster financial efficiency and promote sustainable economic growth in emerging markets.

本研究探讨ESG股东参与是否以及如何提高中国企业信用配置效率。利用2008年至2022年非金融类上市公司的面板数据，我们发现ESG共同基金的股权持有量增加显著缓解了企业信贷错配。在信息不对称理论和代理理论的指导下，结果表明ESG投资者通过缓解融资约束和提高投资效率来提高信贷配置效率。这种效应在内部治理较强、透明度较高的公司中更为明显，而在信息摩擦严重的公司中则较弱。总体而言，证据强调，esg驱动的外部治理是对内部控制机制的补充，有助于提高资本配置效率。因此，加强ESG投资和信息披露实践可以提高金融效率，促进新兴市场的可持续经济增长。

引用次数: 0

Growth vs. sustainability: Economic development and environmental governance in transition periods policy 增长与可持续性：转型时期的经济发展与环境治理政策

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107433

Chen You , Sijin Chen , Heer Wang

Although transition period policies are common in government reforms, their economic and environmental effects remain underexplored. From the perspective of time-bound decentralization, we argue that setting a transition period (STP) creates a paradox: it promotes economic growth while worsening air pollution. Using China's county–city merger reform from 2000 to 2022 as a quasiexperiment, this study investigates how STP influences economic development and environmental outcomes. The results show that counties with STP policies experience both faster economic growth and higher air pollution compared with those without STP. These findings remain robust across multiple validation tests. Mechanism analysis identifies resource allocation, enterprise selection, and land development as key transmission channels, while geographic conditions, policy status, and industrial foundations further shape outcomes. We conclude that additional regulatory safeguards within STP policies are essential to balance economic expansion with environmental protection.

虽然过渡时期政策在政府改革中很常见，但其经济和环境影响仍未得到充分探讨。从限时分权的角度来看，我们认为设定过渡期（STP）产生了一个悖论：它在促进经济增长的同时加剧了空气污染。本研究以2000 - 2022年中国县市并购制改革为准实验，探讨STP对经济发展和环境结果的影响。结果表明，实施STP政策的县与未实施STP的县相比，经济增长更快，空气污染也更严重。这些发现在多个验证测试中仍然是稳健的。机制分析表明，资源配置、企业选择和土地开发是关键的传导渠道，而地理条件、政策状况和产业基础进一步塑造了结果。我们的结论是，在STP政策中增加监管保障对于平衡经济扩张和环境保护至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Fragmented fiscal policymaking and monetary policy: Policy game in a New Keynesian economy 分散的财政政策制定与货币政策：新凯恩斯主义经济中的政策博弈

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107430

Hidekazu Niwa

We develop a New Keynesian model in which two interest groups influence fiscal policymaking and the fiscal authority issues long-term government debt. Each interest group selects a level of production subsidy that its firms receive from the fiscal authority. We compute responses of macroeconomic variables to a positive government debt shock by analyzing a dynamic game in which the interest groups act as leaders and the central bank as a follower. Because the interest groups do not fully internalize how subsidy changes affect the fiscal balance, strategic interactions between the two interest groups and the central bank through the government budget constraint delay the reduction in government debt, causing high inflation in the long run. We further show that a shorter duration of government debt intensifies each interest group's incentive to free ride on monetary policy.

我们建立了一个新凯恩斯模型，其中两个利益集团影响财政政策制定，财政当局发行长期政府债券。每个利益集团选择其公司从财政当局获得的生产补贴水平。我们通过分析一个动态博弈来计算宏观经济变量对积极政府债务冲击的反应，在这个博弈中，利益集团充当领导者，中央银行充当追随者。由于利益集团没有充分内化补贴变化对财政平衡的影响，两大利益集团与中央银行通过政府预算约束的战略互动延迟了政府债务的减少，从而导致长期的高通胀。我们进一步表明，较短的政府债务期限加剧了各利益集团搭便车货币政策的动机。

引用次数: 0

Do sanctions deter Greenfield FDI inflows? An empirical investigation 制裁会阻止绿地FDI流入吗？实证调查

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107421

Usman Khalid , Sasidaran Gopalan , Kathia Bahloul Zekkari

Since the end of World War II, sanctions have significantly influenced international relations, particularly by reducing foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in targeted economies. This study empirically examines the influence of sanctions on global Greenfield FDI inflows across a large panel of emerging markets and developing economies. Specifically, we investigate whether sanctions within a country dyad deter Greenfield FDI inflows from the sender to the target. We further assess the magnitude of these effects, explore the variations by sanction type, and examine potential spillover effects on the sanctions-FDI relationship. Our empirical strategy involves assembling a comprehensive dyadic panel dataset covering international sanctions and Greenfield FDI at the bilateral level, encompassing 110 sender and 113 target countries from 2003 to 2019. We find that bilateral sanctions not only reduce Greenfield FDI inflows from the sender to the target country but also generate negative spillover effects, whereby countries outside the sender-target dyad reduce their investments in the sanctioned country. We perform a battery of robustness checks to confirm the validity of our findings.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，制裁对国际关系产生了重大影响，特别是减少了目标经济体的外国直接投资流入。本研究实证考察了制裁对新兴市场和发展中经济体全球绿地FDI流入的影响。具体而言，我们调查了一个国家内部的制裁是否会阻止绿地FDI从发送国流入目标国。我们进一步评估了这些影响的程度，探讨了制裁类型的变化，并研究了制裁-外国直接投资关系的潜在溢出效应。我们的实证策略包括建立一个全面的二元面板数据集，涵盖国际制裁和双边层面的绿地外国直接投资，包括2003年至2019年的110个输出国和113个目标国。我们发现，双边制裁不仅减少了从派遣国到目标国的绿地FDI流入，而且还产生了负面溢出效应，即派遣国和目标国之外的国家减少了对被制裁国家的投资。我们执行一系列稳健性检查，以确认我们的发现的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of tax reduction policies on fine and confiscation revenues: Evidence from China’s VAT reform 税收减免政策对罚没收入的影响：来自中国增值税改革的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107431

Xueren Zhou, Nian Liu, Ran Chen

Tax cuts may stimulate economic growth while tightening local fiscal constraints. Leveraging China’s VAT reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether local governments offset tax revenue losses by increasing fine and confiscation revenues. We manually compiled a dataset of administrative penalties and implemented a difference-in-differences regression approach. We find a significant post-reform increase in fine and confiscation revenues, providing evidence of a tax-fee substitution effect. The effect is more pronounced in regions with weaker business environments and is concentrated in authorities with greater enforcement discretion. Mechanism tests indicate that fiscal pressure, interacting with enforcement discretion, drives the increase in fine and confiscation revenues. Our findings reveal an unintended fiscal consequence of tax-cut policies. The design of tax reduction policies should fully account for local fiscal incentives to mitigate behavioral distortions that could undermine policy effectiveness.

减税可能会刺激经济增长，同时收紧地方财政约束。利用中国增值税改革作为准自然实验，我们考察了地方政府是否通过增加罚款和没收收入来抵消税收损失。我们手工编制了一个行政处罚数据集，并实现了差异中的差异回归方法。我们发现改革后罚款和没收收入显著增加，提供了税费替代效应的证据。这种影响在商业环境较弱的地区更为明显，并集中在执法自由裁量权较大的当局。机制测试表明，财政压力与执法自由裁量权相互作用，推动了罚款和没收收入的增加。我们的研究结果揭示了减税政策带来的意想不到的财政后果。减税政策的设计应充分考虑到地方财政激励措施，以减轻可能破坏政策有效性的行为扭曲。

引用次数: 0

Bounded rationality and macroeconomic (in)stability 有限理性和宏观经济稳定

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107428

Alejandro Gurrola Luna , Stephen McKnight

We analyze how bounded rationality affects the determinacy properties of forecast-based interest-rate rules in a behavioral New Keynesian model with limited asset market participation (LAMP). We show that the conventional wisdom for achieving equilibrium uniqueness under rational expectations – adherence to the Taylor principle with low/moderate LAMP, while adopting a passive policy under high LAMP – does not carry over to more realistic frameworks with myopic agents. Under moderate participation rates, the combination of myopia and LAMP have a destabilizing effect on the economy by helping to induce indeterminacy under the Taylor principle. In contrast, myopia plays a key stabilizing role in high LAMP economies, where a passive policy is no longer required to prevent indeterminacy, and determinacy under the Taylor principle can be restored. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to a policy response to output; alternative forms of bounded rationality; and the inclusion of a cost-channel of monetary policy.

在有限资产市场参与的新凯恩斯主义行为模型中，我们分析了有限理性如何影响基于预测的利率规则的确定性属性。我们表明，在理性预期下实现均衡唯一性的传统智慧——在低/中等LAMP条件下坚持泰勒原则，而在高LAMP条件下采取被动政策——并不能适用于具有近视主体的更现实的框架。在中等参与率下，短视和LAMP的结合通过帮助诱导泰勒原则下的不确定性而对经济产生不稳定效应。相比之下，在高LAMP经济体中，短视起着关键的稳定作用，在这些经济体中，不再需要被动的政策来防止不确定性，可以恢复泰勒原则下的确定性。我们研究了我们的结果对输出的政策响应的敏感性；有限理性的不同形式；以及纳入成本渠道的货币政策。

引用次数: 0

Does bond market liberalization mitigate corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China 债券市场自由化是否降低了企业的风险承担？来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107427

Deng-Kui Si , Hong-Xue Li , Tianyue Pei

Bond market liberalization plays an important role in enhancing the stable operation of firms and promoting the healthy development of financial markets. This paper investigates the impact of bond market liberalization on corporate risk-taking, addressing a critical gap in the financial liberalization literature that has predominantly focused on equity markets. Using the Bond Connect program in China as an exogenous shock, this paper finds that bond market liberalization can significantly mitigate corporate risk-taking. Our analysis reveals that alleviating financing constraints, mitigating the maturity mismatch of financing and investment, and improving information disclosure quality are three key channels. Further analysis shows that this effect exhibits significant differences in firms with different external regulatory intensity and asset characteristics. Our findings contribute new insights about the real economic effects of bond market liberalization and necessary policy suggestions towards ordering business development and optimizing structural improvement in China's bond market.

债券市场自由化对促进企业稳定经营、促进金融市场健康发展具有重要作用。本文研究了债券市场自由化对企业风险承担的影响，解决了主要关注股票市场的金融自由化文献中的一个关键缺口。本文以中国债券通项目为外生冲击，发现债券市场自由化可以显著降低企业的风险承担。分析表明，缓解融资约束、缓解投融资期限错配、提高信息披露质量是三个关键渠道。进一步分析表明，这种效应在不同外部监管强度和资产特征的公司中表现出显著差异。我们的研究结果为债券市场自由化的实际经济效应提供了新的见解，并为规范中国债券市场的业务发展和优化结构改善提供了必要的政策建议。

引用次数: 0

Gender-gap reversal in education and the female labor supply: Evidence from China 教育中的性别差距逆转与女性劳动力供给：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107424

Steven Zhongwu Li , Fengzhi Lu

This study investigates whether female educational advantages—defined as accumulating more educational credits than males—affects female labor force participation (FLFP) in China. Using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies and instrumental variable strategies to address endogeneity, we find that females who surpass their spouses in education are less likely to participate in the labor force. This negative association is stronger among females with traditional gender beliefs, lower education, older age, more children, lower family status, or who live in conservative regions, and weaker among highly educated females, those with highly educated spouses, and in areas with higher FLFP. Mechanism analysis shows that gender display norms, rather than bargaining power or labor market discrimination, primarily drive this pattern. Notably, men with higher education than their wives are more likely to participate in the labor force, underscoring a gender asymmetry. These findings suggest that the reversal of the educational gender gap may unintentionally reinforce traditional roles, and that addressing persistent gender norms is essential to converting educational gains into real progress in gender equality at work and at home.

本研究探讨女性教育优势（定义为积累的教育学分多于男性）是否影响中国女性劳动力参与率（FLFP）。利用中国家庭小组研究的具有全国代表性的数据和工具变量策略来解决内生性问题，我们发现受教育程度超过配偶的女性参与劳动力的可能性较小。在具有传统性别信仰、受教育程度较低、年龄较大、子女较多、家庭地位较低或生活在保守地区的女性中，这种负相关关系更强，而在受过高等教育的女性、配偶受过高等教育的女性以及FLFP较高的地区，这种负相关关系较弱。机制分析表明，性别展示规范，而不是议价能力或劳动力市场歧视，主要推动了这种模式。值得注意的是，受教育程度高于妻子的男性更有可能加入劳动力大军，这突显了性别不对称。这些发现表明，教育性别差距的逆转可能会无意中强化传统角色，解决持续存在的性别规范对于将教育成果转化为工作和家庭性别平等的真正进展至关重要。

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