Economic Modelling最新文献

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Distrust and disclosure: Greenwashing governance and the neglected incentive withdrawal signals of environmental subsidies 不信任与披露：漂绿治理与被忽视的环境补贴激励退出信号

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462

Tong Yue , Jian Tong , Xinyi Wen , Chengjun Chu

This paper examines how incentive withdrawal signals embedded in environmental subsidies help curb corporate greenwashing. Drawing on information asymmetry theory, we develop a signaling model that captures the strategic interaction between greenwashing and subsidy allocation and validate it using evidence from Chinese firms. We find that greenwashing reduces environmental subsidies by 0.602 %, primarily through two mechanisms: unfulfilled presubsidy environmental commitments and negative spillovers from external evaluations. Positive information disclosure, in turn, enhances government trust. Compared with firms that report strong financial performance or receive favorable external evaluations, poorly performing firms experience larger subsidy reductions of 0.498 %–0.784 % when engaged in greenwashing. These results demonstrate that subsidy withdrawal is an effective tool for governing the “gray area” of greenwashing and underscore the adaptive role of local authorities operating under limited information.

本文考察了环境补贴中的激励退出信号如何有助于遏制企业的“漂绿”行为。利用信息不对称理论，我们建立了一个信号模型，该模型捕捉了漂绿与补贴分配之间的战略相互作用，并使用来自中国企业的证据对其进行了验证。研究发现，“漂绿”使环境补贴减少了0.602%，主要通过两种机制：未履行的补贴前环境承诺和外部评价的负面溢出。积极的信息披露反过来又增强了政府的信任。与财务表现良好或外部评价良好的公司相比，表现不佳的公司在进行“洗绿”时，补贴减少幅度更大，为0.498 % -0.784 %。这些结果表明，取消补贴是治理洗绿“灰色地带”的有效工具，并强调了地方政府在信息有限的情况下运作的适应性作用。

引用次数: 0

Natural disasters and the effects of reconstruction expenditure on output 自然灾害和重建支出对产出的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458

Christos Chrysanthakopoulos , Athanasios Tagkalakis

Using a panel of 116 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies over 1990–2022, we examine the immediate impact of natural disasters on economic activity and public finances, and the medium-term effects of post-disaster reconstruction through public spending. Natural disasters significantly reduce output and worsen fiscal balances, with extreme events causing larger losses than major disasters. Employing a panel local-projection approach combined with instrumental variables and robustness checks, we find that reconstruction spending can effectively promote medium-term growth. Specifically, a 1 % increase in real cyclically adjusted government expenditure after an extreme disaster raises real output by about 2.5 % five years later. The positive effects are stronger in countries with lower public debt, lower trade openness, higher financial development, fixed exchange-rate regimes, and in emerging markets rather than advanced or least developed economies. Effects are also larger in countries with higher old-age dependency ratios and lower reliance on agriculture or tourism.

通过对1990年至2022年间116个发达经济体、新兴市场经济体和发展中经济体的调查，我们研究了自然灾害对经济活动和公共财政的直接影响，以及通过公共支出进行灾后重建的中期影响。自然灾害显著减少产出，恶化财政平衡，极端事件造成的损失大于重大灾害。采用结合工具变量和鲁棒性检验的面板局部预测方法，我们发现重建支出可以有效地促进中期增长。具体来说，一场极端灾难发生后，经周期性调整后的实际政府支出每增加1%，五年后的实际产出就会增加2.5%左右。在公共债务较低、贸易开放程度较低、金融发展程度较高、实行固定汇率制度的国家，以及新兴市场国家，而不是发达经济体或最不发达经济体，积极影响更为强烈。在老年抚养比率较高、对农业或旅游业依赖程度较低的国家，影响也更大。

引用次数: 0

Business dynamics and credit shocks: Evidence from local markets in Brazil 商业动态和信贷冲击：来自巴西当地市场的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107384

Ana Abras , Camila F.S. Campos , Bruno de Paula Rocha

This study brings together the literature on public banks and business dynamics by showing the reallocating consequences of the exit of public banks in a large emerging economy. We study a financial sector restructuring program in Brazil that privatized regional banks and we consider the relationship between local public credit availability and business dynamics. Our measure of financial restriction is the exits of regional public banks from local markets. Our empirical exercises show that regional public credit operates in the economy through the prevention of job destruction and the exit of establishments. Moreover, our results indicate that shutting down sources of local public credit accelerated the exit rate of establishments, increased the rate of job destruction while also increasing job creation from new establishments. The results are consistent with the interpretation that firms which enjoyed patronage from local banks had to exit the market following the privatization program and new businesses entered establishing relationships with private banks.

本研究通过展示大型新兴经济体中公共银行退出的再分配后果，汇集了有关公共银行和商业动态的文献。我们研究了巴西的金融部门重组计划，该计划将区域银行私有化，并考虑了当地公共信贷可用性与商业动态之间的关系。我们的金融限制措施是地区性公共银行退出本地市场。我们的实证实践表明，区域公共信用通过防止就业破坏和机构退出在经济中发挥作用。此外，我们的研究结果表明，关闭地方公共信贷来源加速了企业的退出率，增加了就业机会的破坏率，同时也增加了新企业创造的就业机会。结果与民营化计划后享受地方银行赞助的企业不得不退出市场，新企业进入与私人银行建立关系的解释一致。

引用次数: 0

Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India 脆弱的企业，猛烈的冲击：印度货币政策在企业层面的不对称传导

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463

Abhay Pratap Raghuvanshi , Wasim Ahmad

How do firm characteristics shape the real effects of monetary policy in emerging markets, and which firms bear the highest cost of tightening? Using firm-level data for India from 2011 to 2022, this paper examines heterogeneity in monetary transmission, focusing on balance-sheet strength, market power, and ownership. Using a panel local-projection framework, we estimate the dynamic response of firm sales to monetary policy shocks. Tightening shocks lead to larger sales contractions among firms with higher leverage, weaker liquidity and profitability, and smaller asset bases. Policy effects are also asymmetric: financially fragile firms suffer a deeper sales reduction during the expansion phase of the business cycle than during the contraction phase. The findings suggest that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates through a balance-sheet channel, where credit frictions amplify the impact of policy shocks, rendering firm financial resilience crucial to the effectiveness of transmission.

企业特征如何塑造新兴市场货币政策的实际效果，哪些企业承担了紧缩政策的最高成本？本文利用2011年至2022年印度企业层面的数据，考察了货币传导的异质性，重点关注资产负债表实力、市场力量和所有权。利用面板局部预测框架，我们估计了企业销售对货币政策冲击的动态响应。紧缩冲击导致杠杆率较高、流动性和盈利能力较弱、资产基础较小的公司出现更大的销售收缩。政策影响也是不对称的：财务脆弱的公司在商业周期的扩张阶段比收缩阶段遭受更大的销售减少。研究结果表明，新兴市场的货币传导是通过资产负债表渠道运作的，信贷摩擦放大了政策冲击的影响，因此企业的金融弹性对传导的有效性至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric wage and employment dynamics in segmented labour markets 细分劳动力市场中不对称的工资和就业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486

Srinivasan Murali , Abhishek Naresh , Jong Kook Shin , Chetan Subramanian

Using data from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries, we document that regular workers exhibit asymmetric wage and employment dynamics, while contract workers display asymmetric employment but symmetric wage dynamics. Specifically,

(i)

the nominal wage growth of regular workers is positively skewed, while that of contract workers is nearly symmetric, and

(i i)

employment growth for both groups is negatively skewed, with contract employment being less negatively skewed than regular. To account for these patterns, we extend a workhorse business cycle model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs for regular labour and symmetric wage adjustment costs for contract labour, along with symmetric labour adjustment costs for the regular sector. Our calibrated model shows that the presence of contract labour relaxes the constraint imposed by downward nominal wage rigidity, thereby reducing the optimal grease inflation towards zero.

使用印度年度产业调查的数据，我们证明了正规工表现出不对称的工资和就业动态，而合同工表现出不对称的就业但对称的工资动态。具体来说，(i)正规工的名义工资增长是正倾斜的，而合同工的名义工资增长几乎是对称的，（ii）这两个群体的就业增长都是负倾斜的，合同工的负倾斜程度低于正规工。为了解释这些模式，我们扩展了一个主力商业周期模型，其中包括常规劳动力的不对称工资调整成本和合同工的对称工资调整成本，以及常规部门的对称劳动力调整成本。我们的校准模型显示，合同工的存在放松了名义工资向下刚性所施加的约束，从而将最佳油脂通胀降至零。

引用次数: 0

Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China 通过信贷实现绿色：中国绿色信贷与污染企业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476

Minzhi Wang , Xinxin Guo , Yu Gu

Exploiting China's green credit policy (GCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit on polluting firm dynamics using a difference-in-differences method. We show that the GCP reduces the number of firm entries by 10.1 % and increases the number of firm exits by 9.1 % in polluting industries. Our mechanism analyses further corroborate that the GCP significantly intensifies financing constraints for polluting firms, resulting in increased entry barriers and operational costs. Heterogeneous tests show that the effect is more pronounced in cities with a higher level of marketization or stricter environmental regulation and industries with higher market competition or larger irreversible investments. Additionally, we find that the GCP leads to better-quality entrants with larger scale, higher total factor productivity, and lower pollution discharge intensity. These results imply that the GCP promotes efficient resource allocation, manifested in the transfer of production factors to more productive and cleaner firms.

本文以中国绿色信贷政策为准自然实验，运用差分法考察了绿色信贷对污染企业动态的影响。我们发现，GCP使污染行业的企业进入数量减少了10.1%，退出数量增加了9.1%。我们的机制分析进一步证实，GCP显著加剧了污染企业的融资约束，导致进入壁垒和运营成本增加。异质性检验表明，在市场化程度较高或环境监管较严的城市，以及市场竞争程度较高或不可逆投资较大的行业，这种效应更为明显。此外，我们发现GCP导致了规模更大、全要素生产率更高、污染排放强度更低的优质进入者。这些结果表明，GCP促进了有效的资源配置，表现为生产要素向生产率更高、更清洁的企业转移。

引用次数: 0

Bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure: The role of financial mismatch 银行金融科技与企业环境信息披露：金融错配的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479

Ailian Zhang, Yuxin Zhao, Bai Liu

Despite banks' central role as corporate creditors, existing literature offers limited evidence on their influence over firms' environmental behavior, particularly regarding bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure (EID). Based on Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2023, this paper shows that bank fintech correlates with lower levels of EID. The underlying mechanism is that bank fintech alleviates financial mismatches, thereby reducing firms' incentives to signal environmental responsibility through disclosure. Corporate digital transformation attenuates this effect. The negative impact of bank fintech on EID is more pronounced for non–state-owned firms; firms facing lower financing constraints and with higher ESG scores; firms located in regions with weaker environmental regulation and financial development; and firms operating in highly competitive, non–heavily polluting industries. Importantly, bank fintech is found to improve firms’ actual environmental performance. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of EID and offer policy-relevant implications for environmental governance.

尽管银行作为企业债权人发挥着核心作用，但现有文献提供的证据有限，无法证明银行对企业环境行为的影响，特别是在银行金融科技和企业环境信息披露（EID）方面。基于2014 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，本文发现银行金融科技与较低的EID水平相关。其潜在机制是，银行金融科技缓解了金融错配，从而降低了企业通过披露表明环境责任的动机。企业数字化转型减弱了这种影响。银行金融科技对非国有企业EID的负面影响更为明显；面临较低融资约束、ESG得分较高的公司；企业位于环境监管和金融发展较弱的地区；以及在竞争激烈、非重污染行业经营的公司。重要的是，银行金融科技被发现可以改善企业的实际环境绩效。这些发现为研究EID的决定因素提供了新的见解，并为环境治理提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

IPR protection and markup in China: Balancing innovation incentives and markup distortions 中国的知识产权保护与加价：平衡创新激励与加价扭曲

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488

Lihao Wang , Jiwen Chai , Song Nie , Shangrong Han

In the context of rising markups worldwide, this study examines the role of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in influencing firm-level markups and the mechanisms underlying this effect. Theoretically, we show that stronger IPR protection enhances firms’ innovation incentives, thereby increasing their pricing power. Empirically, using a quasinatural experiment and firm-level data from Chinese A-share-listed companies (2001–2020), we find that more robust IPR policies significantly increase patenting, citations and intangible assets—evidence of enhanced innovation. These policies also lead to higher markups, indicating increased market power. The effects are greater among high-tech and large firms. Results remain robust to a range of sensitivity checks and endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a key trade-off: while IPR reforms promote innovation, they may also distort competition through markup inflation. Therefore, policymakers should balance innovation incentives with measures to preserve market contestability, particularly in the increasingly intangible economy.

在全球加价上升的背景下，本研究探讨了知识产权保护在影响企业加价方面的作用以及这种影响的机制。从理论上讲，我们证明了知识产权保护的加强增强了企业的创新激励，从而提高了企业的定价能力。通过准自然实验和2001-2020年中国a股上市公司的企业层面数据，我们发现，更强有力的知识产权政策显著增加了专利申请、引用和无形资产——这是创新增强的证据。这些政策还导致了更高的加价，表明市场力量的增强。这种影响在高科技和大型企业中更为明显。结果对一系列敏感性检查和内生性问题保持稳健。我们的研究结果揭示了一个关键的权衡：知识产权改革在促进创新的同时，也可能通过加价通胀扭曲竞争。因此，政策制定者应该平衡创新激励与保持市场竞争力的措施，特别是在日益增长的无形经济中。

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引用次数: 0

Cost efficiency and gender diversity in microfinance: A stochastic frontier approach 小额信贷的成本效率和性别多样性：一个随机前沿方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473

Moh’d Al-Azzam , David H. Bernstein , Christopher F. Parmeter

Cost efficiency in microfinance reveals whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) can serve the vulnerable sustainably or survive by relying on subsidies or passing inefficiencies to clients. As MFIs strive for sustainability, the role of gender — where women make up the majority of borrowers and more than one-third of MFIs’ employees — remains central to understanding efficiency. Using data from 1507 MFIs in 111 countries (2010–2018), we apply cutting-edge panel stochastic frontier models to assess global efficiency trends and the roles of women as borrowers and employees. We find that global efficiency declined, especially among larger MFIs, despite increasing returns to scale. MFIs that serve more women or hire more loan officers are associated with more inefficiencies. The effect of other women employees varies by role and profit orientation. Women in leadership improve efficiency in nonprofits but reduce it in for-profit MFIs, whereas female staff improve efficiency only in for-profit MFIs. These findings call for more targeted gender strategies to enhance inclusion and sustainability.

小额信贷的成本效率揭示了小额信贷机构（mfi）是否能够持续地为弱势群体服务，或者依靠补贴或将效率低下转嫁给客户来生存。在小额信贷机构努力实现可持续性的同时，性别的作用——妇女占借款人的大多数，占小额信贷机构雇员的三分之一以上——仍然是理解效率的核心。利用来自111个国家1507家小额信贷机构（2010-2018年）的数据，我们应用前沿面板随机前沿模型来评估全球效率趋势以及女性作为借款人和雇员的角色。我们发现，尽管规模收益在增加，但全球效率却在下降，尤其是在规模较大的小额信贷机构中。为更多女性提供服务或雇佣更多贷款人员的小额信贷机构效率更低。其他女性员工的影响因角色和利润取向而异。女性领导提高了非营利组织的效率，但降低了营利性小额信贷机构的效率，而女性员工仅在营利性小额信贷机构中提高了效率。这些发现呼吁制定更有针对性的性别战略，以增强包容性和可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Growth vs. sustainability: Economic development and environmental governance in transition periods policy 增长与可持续性：转型时期的经济发展与环境治理政策

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107433

Chen You , Sijin Chen , Heer Wang

Although transition period policies are common in government reforms, their economic and environmental effects remain underexplored. From the perspective of time-bound decentralization, we argue that setting a transition period (STP) creates a paradox: it promotes economic growth while worsening air pollution. Using China's county–city merger reform from 2000 to 2022 as a quasiexperiment, this study investigates how STP influences economic development and environmental outcomes. The results show that counties with STP policies experience both faster economic growth and higher air pollution compared with those without STP. These findings remain robust across multiple validation tests. Mechanism analysis identifies resource allocation, enterprise selection, and land development as key transmission channels, while geographic conditions, policy status, and industrial foundations further shape outcomes. We conclude that additional regulatory safeguards within STP policies are essential to balance economic expansion with environmental protection.

虽然过渡时期政策在政府改革中很常见，但其经济和环境影响仍未得到充分探讨。从限时分权的角度来看，我们认为设定过渡期（STP）产生了一个悖论：它在促进经济增长的同时加剧了空气污染。本研究以2000 - 2022年中国县市并购制改革为准实验，探讨STP对经济发展和环境结果的影响。结果表明，实施STP政策的县与未实施STP的县相比，经济增长更快，空气污染也更严重。这些发现在多个验证测试中仍然是稳健的。机制分析表明，资源配置、企业选择和土地开发是关键的传导渠道，而地理条件、政策状况和产业基础进一步塑造了结果。我们的结论是，在STP政策中增加监管保障对于平衡经济扩张和环境保护至关重要。

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