Economic Modelling最新文献

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Does smart city benefit open innovation? firm-level evidence from China 智慧城市是否有利于开放式创新？来自中国的企业层面的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107453

Huijie Cui , Hongyan Hu , Shangkun Liang

Open innovation offers great promise for firms seeking long-term competitiveness, but the challenge of balancing openness with control often hinders collaboration. This study investigates whether smart city pilot policies can alleviate the “paradox of openness” and foster collaboration. Using firm-level data, we find that firms located in smart city pilot areas are more likely to engage in collaborative innovation and produce a higher level of joint innovation output and quality. The mechanism lies in the stronger support and coordination between governments and firms in these cities, which lowers the barriers to external cooperation. Cross-sectional analyses show that the effect varies across different external factors. We also demonstrate that the policy's promotional effect has a lasting impact. Overall, these findings highlight the role of smart city policy in unlocking the full potential of open innovation.

开放式创新为寻求长期竞争力的公司提供了巨大的希望，但平衡开放与控制的挑战往往会阻碍合作。本研究探讨智慧城市试点政策能否缓解“开放悖论”，促进合作。利用企业层面的数据，我们发现位于智慧城市试点地区的企业更有可能参与协同创新，并产生更高水平的联合创新产出和质量。其机制在于城市政府和企业之间的支持和协调力度加大，降低了对外合作的壁垒。横断面分析表明，影响因外部因素的不同而不同。我们还证明了政策的促进作用具有持久的影响。总的来说，这些发现突出了智慧城市政策在释放开放式创新的全部潜力方面的作用。

引用次数: 0

Public investment and real exchange rate dynamics: The role of public capital productivity 公共投资与实际汇率动态：公共资本生产率的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451

Yazid Dissou , Sicong Ma

This paper investigates how public investment influences real exchange rate dynamics. While most empirical studies find that higher government investment appreciates the real exchange rate, theory often predicts depreciation. We develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tradable and nontradable sectors, nominal rigidities, and productive public capital to reconcile these findings. Using China as a case study, we show that the productivity of public capital – the extent to which public investment enhances private-sector efficiency – is decisive. Low productivity causes a real appreciation, whereas high productivity leads to depreciation. The model thus explains the mixed empirical evidence on fiscal policy and the exchange rate. The results highlight that the competitiveness impact of public investment depends on how productive it is.

本文探讨了公共投资如何影响实际汇率动态。虽然大多数实证研究发现，更高的政府投资会使实际汇率升值，但理论往往预测会贬值。我们开发了一个开放经济的新凯恩斯主义模型，包括可贸易和不可贸易部门、名义刚性和生产性公共资本，以调和这些发现。以中国为例，我们表明公共资本的生产率——公共投资提高私营部门效率的程度——是决定性的。低生产率导致实际升值，而高生产率导致实际贬值。因此，该模型解释了财政政策和汇率的混合实证证据。研究结果表明，公共投资对竞争力的影响取决于其生产效率。

引用次数: 0

Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa 中国教育部门发展援助对非洲青年受教育程度的地方影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444

Dickson David Agbaji , Qiong Zhu

This paper investigates the impacts of Chinese education aid on African youth's secondary and tertiary education attainment. It harmonises 92 Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 27 African countries with AidData's geocoded data on 2580 Chinese projects across Africa between 2000 and 2021. The study draws on the education production function theory and adopts a difference-in-differences estimator that addresses endogeneity by testing for differences between active and pipeline projects. It finds that proximity to active Chinese education sector projects significantly improves African youth secondary and tertiary school enrolment and completion, with tertiary-level and non-infrastructure projects exhibiting the strongest effects. A causal mediation analysis demonstrates that the aid effect is mediated via household income, rather than infrastructure. Moreover, social and economic sector aid projects exhibit (in)direct spillover effects. Lastly, the paper finds that a selection bias exists, as wealthy and urban areas possess a comparative advantage vis-à-vis exposure to Chinese aid.

本文研究了中国教育援助对非洲青年中、高等教育成就的影响。它将来自27个非洲国家的92个人口与健康调查数据集与非洲援助数据中心2000年至2021年期间2580个中国在非洲项目的地理编码数据相协调。该研究借鉴了教育生产函数理论，并采用了一种差中差估计方法，通过测试活动项目和管道项目之间的差异来解决内生性问题。研究发现，靠近中国活跃的教育部门项目显著提高了非洲青年的中学和大学入学率和毕业率，其中高等教育和非基础设施项目的影响最大。因果中介分析表明，援助效应是通过家庭收入而不是基础设施来中介的。此外，社会和经济部门援助项目表现出直接的溢出效应。最后，本文发现存在选择偏差，因为富裕地区和城市地区在-à-vis接受中国援助方面具有比较优势。

引用次数: 0

Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities 自动化与农民工就业关系中的空间依赖：来自中国城市的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442

Zhoufu Yan , Qihong Zhu , Markus Leibrecht , Fangwei Wu

China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.

中国在自动化的速度和农村劳动力迁移的程度上都是出类拔萃的。本文研究了工业自动化对中国农民工就业的影响，重点研究了空间溢出效应。我们使用2011年至2018年的城市就业数据和工业机器人的采用作为自动化的代理，并应用了空间德宾模型。我们发现，自动化显著减少了当地农民工就业，同时对邻近城市产生了正溢出效应。这些影响因移民的技能、任务、行业、移民类型、年龄和婚姻状况而异。机制分析表明，自动化促进了高新技术企业集聚和技能升级，造成了技能溢价和劳动力外流。同时，自动化加强了相邻城市之间的产业联系和结构相似性，促进了正向溢出效应。研究结果为旨在在技术转型中稳定农村移民就业和福祉的区域间政策提供了信息。

引用次数: 0

Generalized impulse response analysis for time-varying VAR models 时变VAR模型的广义脉冲响应分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107452

Li Tan , Shibo Bian , Yayi Yan , Zhiming Hu

This paper considers estimation and inference of time-varying generalized impulse response functions (TV-GIRFs) for time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We use the local linear kernel method to estimate time-varying model coefficients, propose an easy-to-implement estimator for TV-GIRFs, and then establish its asymptotic properties for inferential purposes. Extensive simulation experiments show that our estimation method works well in finite samples. To demonstrate the empirical relevance, we apply the proposed TV-GIRFs to estimate the time-variation in U.S. government spending multipliers and the time-varying volatility spillovers among five major Asian stock markets, respectively.

本文研究时变向量自回归（VAR）模型的时变广义脉冲响应函数（TV-GIRFs）的估计和推理。我们使用局部线性核方法来估计时变模型系数，提出了一个易于实现的tv - girf估计器，并建立了其渐近性质用于推理。大量的仿真实验表明，我们的估计方法在有限的样本中效果良好。为了证明这一实证相关性，我们应用提出的电视-全球girf分别估计了美国政府支出乘数的时变和亚洲五大股票市场的时变波动溢出效应。

引用次数: 0

Does the People's Bank of China's currency swap have macroeconomic stability effects? 中国人民银行货币互换是否具有宏观经济稳定效应？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107449

Lingxiao Tang , Kenan Li , Yao Ouyang

Based on the International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR), this paper develops a two-country open-economy DSGE model to evaluate the macroeconomic stability effect of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swap. The simulation results indicate that the PBoC's currency swap has a macroeconomic stability effect, but moral hazard weakens this effect. Using sample data from 182 economies from 2007 to 2022 and empirical results based on the staggered DiD model, it is shown that currency swaps help suppress macroeconomic fluctuations and cushion the negative impact of rising US dollar financing costs. The larger the scale of the central bank's reduction in foreign exchange reserves in a currency swap economy is, the weaker the macroeconomic stability effect of the PBoC's currency swap. Further discoveries show that the PBoC's currency swap has a greater macroeconomic stability effect on emerging economies.

本文基于国际最后贷款人（ILOLR），建立了一个两国开放经济的DSGE模型来评估中国人民银行货币互换的宏观经济稳定效果。模拟结果表明，央行货币互换具有宏观经济稳定效应，但道德风险削弱了这种效应。利用2007 - 2022年182个经济体的样本数据和基于交错DiD模型的实证结果表明，货币互换有助于抑制宏观经济波动，缓冲美元融资成本上升的负面影响。在货币掉期经济体中，央行减少外汇储备的规模越大，央行货币掉期的宏观经济稳定效应越弱。进一步发现，中国央行的货币互换对新兴经济体具有更大的宏观经济稳定效应。

引用次数: 0

Effect of information disclosure reform on market stability: Evidence from the housing market in Taiwan 信息披露改革对市场稳定的影响：来自台湾房地产市场的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107450

Yi-Shan Hsieh , Chien-Wen Yang

This study examines how mandatory information disclosure policies affect market stability in Taiwan's housing market. In the existing-home mortgage market, disclosure increases financial stability (lower nonperforming loan ratios). The mechanism differs across regions: municipalities experience a direct effect through improved lending decisions, while non-municipalities benefit indirectly from higher information quality and lower price dispersion. In contrast, in the primary presale housing market, disclosure is linked to more disputes. This outcome may arise from information overload and the crowding out of private sources. These findings suggest that disclosure works differently across markets. Its effectiveness depends on participants' ability to process information, implying that policymakers should design policies suited to market needs and provide support through financial education or user-friendly platforms.

摘要本研究旨在探讨强制性资讯披露政策对台湾房地产市场稳定性的影响。在现有住房抵押贷款市场，信息披露增加了金融稳定性（降低了不良贷款率）。这一机制因地区而异：市政当局通过改善贷款决策直接受益，而非市政当局则间接受益于更高的信息质量和更低的价格差异。相比之下，在一手预售房市场，信息披露与更多纠纷有关。这种结果可能是由于信息超载和私人资源被挤出。这些发现表明，信息披露在不同市场的运作方式不同。它的有效性取决于参与者处理信息的能力，这意味着决策者应该设计适合市场需求的政策，并通过金融教育或用户友好的平台提供支持。

引用次数: 0

The impact of Ukrainian immigration on labour market dynamics in Poland: A Bayesian VAR analysis 乌克兰移民对波兰劳动力市场动态的影响：贝叶斯VAR分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107441

Łukasz Postek , Małgorzata Walerych

This study investigates the impact of immigration shocks on the labour market in Poland, a country that experienced a rapid influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Our paper adds to the literature on the macroeconomic effects of immigration and to the literature that aims to disentangle various labour market shocks, focusing on war-induced immigration. We employ sign-restricted BVAR models and construct novel proxies for immigration inflows to assess their macroeconomic effects for the period 2004–2023. We find that in recent years, immigration shocks slightly lowered unemployment rate and more strongly reduced real wage growth. They also contributed to higher nominal wage growth, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants created significant consumption demand. Our findings suggest that refugee-driven migration affects the economy differently from labour-driven inflows, providing new insights into the macroeconomic consequences of Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.

本研究调查了移民冲击对波兰劳动力市场的影响，波兰在2014年和2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后经历了移民的快速涌入。我们的论文补充了关于移民的宏观经济影响的文献，以及旨在理清各种劳动力市场冲击的文献，重点关注战争引发的移民。我们采用符号限制的BVAR模型，并构建了新的移民流入代理来评估2004-2023年期间移民流入的宏观经济影响。我们发现，近年来，移民冲击略微降低了失业率，但更强烈地降低了实际工资增长。他们还促进了更高的名义工资增长，特别是在2022年之后，当时非工作移民的涌入创造了巨大的消费需求。我们的研究结果表明，难民驱动的移民对经济的影响不同于劳动力驱动的移民流入，这为了解二战以来欧洲最大的难民危机的宏观经济后果提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Local university expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from skilled labor supply shocks and innovation efficiency 地方大学扩张与企业创新：来自熟练劳动力供给冲击与创新效率的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107446

Guang-Zhao Yang , Qinru Si , Liang Liu

This study examines whether expanding the local supply of highly educated labor raises firm innovation. Existing research links higher-education expansion to aggregate human capital and firm performance but provides limited city-level evidence on firm innovation. Exploiting staggered openings of undergraduate universities across Chinese prefecture-level cities during 2008–2022, and combining city data with listed-firm records, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that university openings increase local firms’ patent output and improve innovation efficiency, allowing firms to achieve higher innovative outcomes without additional R&D expenditure, while intensified labor market competition reduces labor costs and further supports R&D activity. By contrast, the creation of vocational colleges or elite universities has only modest effects on local firm innovation, consistent with vocational graduates mainly entering non-R&D jobs and with high mobility among graduates of prestigious universities. These results highlight the importance of local skilled-labor availability and graduate retention for strengthening regional innovation capacity.

本研究考察了扩大高学历劳动力的本地供给是否会促进企业创新。现有的研究将高等教育扩张与人力资本总量和企业绩效联系起来，但在城市层面上对企业创新提供的证据有限。利用2008-2022年间中国地级市本科院校的交错开放，并将城市数据与上市公司记录相结合，我们实施了差异中的差异设计。研究发现，大学开放增加了本地企业的专利产出，提高了创新效率，使企业在不增加研发支出的情况下获得更高的创新成果，而劳动力市场竞争加剧降低了劳动力成本，进一步支持了研发活动。相比之下，职业学院或精英大学的创建对当地企业创新的影响不大，这与职业学院毕业生主要进入非研发工作以及名牌大学毕业生之间的高流动性是一致的。这些结果突出了当地熟练劳动力的可获得性和毕业生保留对增强区域创新能力的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

How institutions shape the economic returns to investment in European regions? 制度如何影响欧洲地区投资的经济回报？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107445

Inmaculada C. Álvarez , Javier Barbero , Luis Orea , Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

Most studies of institutional quality and regional growth assume uniform effects across territories. However, this may mask crucial regional heterogeneity, with direct policy implications. We use a latent class framework applied to 230 EU regions over 2009–2017 to identify institution-driven regional parameter groups, and to examine both average effects and catching-up effects associated with changes in the institutional environment. We demonstrate that institutional quality generates highly variable returns to investment in physical capital and innovation. Nordic and Central European regions show highest returns to physical capital and R&D investment, whereas less-developed regions benefit most from education spending. Crucially, we find that improving government quality not only raises average returns but also promotes territorial cohesion. By contrast, regional autonomy shows limited impact on returns. Our findings challenge the one-size-fits-all approach to cohesion policy and indicate that cohesion policy should explicitly promote institutional improvements in addition to capital deployment.

大多数关于制度质量和区域增长的研究假设了跨地区的统一效应。然而，这可能掩盖了具有直接政策影响的关键区域异质性。我们使用了一个潜在类别框架，应用于2009-2017年230个欧盟地区，以确定制度驱动的区域参数组，并检查与制度环境变化相关的平均效应和追赶效应。我们证明，制度质量会产生高度可变的实物资本和创新投资回报。北欧和中欧地区的实物资本和研发投资回报率最高，而欠发达地区从教育支出中获益最多。关键是，我们发现提高政府质量不仅能提高平均回报，还能促进区域凝聚力。相比之下，区域自治对回报率的影响有限。我们的研究结果对“一刀切”的凝聚力政策提出了挑战，并表明凝聚力政策除了资本配置外，还应明确促进制度改进。

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Economic Modelling

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