Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

The environmental administrative penalties and firm digital transformation: A reexamination of Porter Hypothesis 环境行政处罚与企业数字化转型：对波特假设的重新审视

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107481

Youzhi Xiao , Xin Liu

As rapid development of digital technologies, whether the Porter Hypothesis of environmental regulations satisfies, especially the strong version of the Porter Hypothesis, under the situations of the digital economy is a key issue to be considered. By utilizing the environmental administrative penalties (EAP) and the data from listed firms in China from 2010 to 2022, we find EAP significantly inhibit firm digital transformation, indicating the strong version of Porter Hypothesis does not satisfy. The plausible channels show the EAP dose not encourage the firms to conduct digital innovation. Moreover, we find the EAP promote firms investing in pro-environmental projects, make the firms pay more attention to the environmental issues, make the firms pay more attention to short-term interest and reduce the acquisition of external resources. Our results provide a new understanding of Porter Hypothesis and suggest that the digital technologies should be attached more importance to environmental sustainability.

随着数字技术的飞速发展，环境规制的波特假设，特别是强版本的波特假设，在数字经济条件下是否得到满足，是一个需要考虑的关键问题。利用环境行政处罚（EAP）和2010 - 2022年中国上市公司的数据，我们发现环境行政处罚显著抑制了企业的数字化转型，表明强版本的波特假设不成立。合理的渠道表明EAP并没有鼓励企业进行数字创新。此外，我们发现EAP促进了企业对亲环境项目的投资，使企业更加关注环境问题，使企业更加关注短期利益，减少了外部资源的获取。我们的研究结果为波特假设提供了新的理解，并建议数字技术应更加重视环境的可持续性。

引用次数: 0

Tax evasion and the productivity distribution 偷税漏税与生产力分配

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107480

Francesco Menoncin , Andrea Modena , Luca Regis

We develop a heterogeneous-firm macroeconomic model to investigate how tax evasion affects the productivity distribution in general equilibrium. In our model, entrepreneurs choose capital and labor to produce with their firms, invest in bonds, and evade taxes to maximize their intertemporal utility, derived from dividends. Firms face leverage constraints and uninsurable productivity shocks. The results reveal that tax evasion redistributes capital toward low-productivity firms, relaxing their leverage constraints. It also increases public debt, raising the cost of capital and crowding out firms at the margin. As a result of these forces, we demonstrate that (i) the decline in high-productivity firms’ average productivity drives the negative correlation between the size of the shadow economy and aggregate productivity, and (ii) the productivity gains from reduced tax evasion are smaller in economies with higher public debt and stricter leverage constraints.

我们建立了一个异质性企业宏观经济模型来研究偷税漏税如何影响一般均衡下的生产率分配。在我们的模型中，企业家选择资本和劳动力与他们的公司一起生产，投资债券，逃税，以最大化他们的跨期效用，来自股息。企业面临杠杆约束和无法保证的生产率冲击。结果表明，偷税漏税使资本向低生产率企业进行了再分配，降低了企业的杠杆约束。它还增加了公共债务，提高了资金成本，并在边际挤占了企业。作为这些力量的结果，我们证明了(i)高生产率企业平均生产率的下降推动了影子经济规模与总生产率之间的负相关关系，以及（ii）在公共债务较高和杠杆约束更严格的经济体中，减少逃税带来的生产率收益较小。

引用次数: 0

Cost efficiency and gender diversity in microfinance: A stochastic frontier approach 小额信贷的成本效率和性别多样性：一个随机前沿方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473

Moh’d Al-Azzam , David H. Bernstein , Christopher F. Parmeter

Cost efficiency in microfinance reveals whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) can serve the vulnerable sustainably or survive by relying on subsidies or passing inefficiencies to clients. As MFIs strive for sustainability, the role of gender — where women make up the majority of borrowers and more than one-third of MFIs’ employees — remains central to understanding efficiency. Using data from 1507 MFIs in 111 countries (2010–2018), we apply cutting-edge panel stochastic frontier models to assess global efficiency trends and the roles of women as borrowers and employees. We find that global efficiency declined, especially among larger MFIs, despite increasing returns to scale. MFIs that serve more women or hire more loan officers are associated with more inefficiencies. The effect of other women employees varies by role and profit orientation. Women in leadership improve efficiency in nonprofits but reduce it in for-profit MFIs, whereas female staff improve efficiency only in for-profit MFIs. These findings call for more targeted gender strategies to enhance inclusion and sustainability.

小额信贷的成本效率揭示了小额信贷机构（mfi）是否能够持续地为弱势群体服务，或者依靠补贴或将效率低下转嫁给客户来生存。在小额信贷机构努力实现可持续性的同时，性别的作用——妇女占借款人的大多数，占小额信贷机构雇员的三分之一以上——仍然是理解效率的核心。利用来自111个国家1507家小额信贷机构（2010-2018年）的数据，我们应用前沿面板随机前沿模型来评估全球效率趋势以及女性作为借款人和雇员的角色。我们发现，尽管规模收益在增加，但全球效率却在下降，尤其是在规模较大的小额信贷机构中。为更多女性提供服务或雇佣更多贷款人员的小额信贷机构效率更低。其他女性员工的影响因角色和利润取向而异。女性领导提高了非营利组织的效率，但降低了营利性小额信贷机构的效率，而女性员工仅在营利性小额信贷机构中提高了效率。这些发现呼吁制定更有针对性的性别战略，以增强包容性和可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of early pension withdrawals on household finances and inflation 提前提取养老金对家庭财政和通货膨胀的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107475

Jaanika Meriküll

This paper exploits Estonia's 2021 pension reform to examine the impact of a large-scale liquidity shock on household finances and inflation. The reform made the second-pillar pension contributions voluntary and allowed early withdrawals before retirement age. One-fifth of contributors withdrew their pension savings as soon as this option became available. Individual-level data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey are used to reveal the balance-sheet and behavioural characteristics of leavers. Aggregate National Accounts and Distributional Wealth Accounts data, and the synthetic differences-in-differences method are applied to assess how the money withdrawn was spent. The leavers had low liquidity, little experience of investing in risky financial assets, and a large outstanding balance of consumer credit, while their households were present-biased and had a high marginal propensity to consume. This profile fits the aggregate estimates on how the withdrawals were spent. A large part of the withdrawals was accumulated as deposits without being reinvested, a substantial fraction was used to pay back consumer debt, and the rest was spent on consumption. The elevated consumption contributed to a temporary hike in inflation. The paper highlights the short-term implications of pension-asset liquidations; further studies are warranted on the longer-run implications.

本文利用爱沙尼亚2021年的养老金改革来研究大规模流动性冲击对家庭财务和通货膨胀的影响。改革使第二大支柱养老金自愿缴纳，并允许在退休年龄之前提前提取。五分之一的缴款人在这一选择出现后立即取出了他们的养老金储蓄。来自家庭财务和消费调查的个人层面数据被用来揭示离职者的资产负债表和行为特征。综合国民账户和分配财富账户数据，以及综合差异中的差异方法被用于评估提取的资金是如何使用的。离职者流动性低，投资风险金融资产的经验少，消费信贷余额大，而他们的家庭是现在偏向的，有很高的边际消费倾向。这个剖面符合对提款使用情况的总体估计。提款的很大一部分作为存款积累起来，没有进行再投资，相当一部分用于偿还消费者债务，其余的用于消费。消费增加导致通货膨胀暂时上升。本文强调了养老金资产清算的短期影响；有必要对其长期影响进行进一步研究。

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引用次数: 0

Capital requirements and risk-taking in community banks: The role of market power 社区银行的资本要求和风险承担：市场力量的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471

Chenzi Yang , Guang-Zhao Yang , Fernando Moreira , Thomas Welsh Archibald

This paper examines the impact of capital requirements on risk-taking in U.S. community banks. While existing literature highlights capital requirements’ influence on liquidity and credit risks, the differential impact across market power characteristics especially for smaller institutions remains unclear. Using data from 5702 U.S. community banks, we employ 2SLS-IV models to reveal an inverted U-shaped effect of capital requirements on liquidity risk and a U-shaped effect on credit risk. The impact of capital requirements diminishes as market power increases, particularly in banks with lower liquid assets, liabilities, and transaction deposits. The impact of Tier 1 and CET1 capital requirements exhibit similar patterns, while CCB requirements display an opposite trend. These findings offer new insights into financial risk management, highlighting the need for tailored regulatory approaches for community banks with low market power to enhance overall stability.

本文考察了资本要求对美国社区银行风险承担的影响。虽然现有文献强调了资本要求对流动性和信用风险的影响，但市场力量特征之间的差异影响，特别是对小型机构的影响仍不清楚。利用5702家美国社区银行的数据，我们采用2SLS-IV模型揭示了资本要求对流动性风险的倒u型效应和对信用风险的u型效应。资本要求的影响随着市场力量的增强而减弱，特别是在流动性资产、负债和交易存款较低的银行。一级和CET1资本要求的影响表现出类似的模式，而建设银行的要求则表现出相反的趋势。这些发现为金融风险管理提供了新的见解，突出了为市场支配力较低的社区银行制定量身定制的监管方法以提高整体稳定性的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Production networks and structural transformation 生产网络和结构转型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107461

Fernando Barros Jr , Bruno R. Delalibera , Marcos J. Ribeiro , Marc Teignier

We examine the aggregate effects of greater integration of traditional and modern services into national supply chains. Using international input–output data, we document substantial cross-country variation in the composition of intermediate goods and identify distinct sectoral patterns. That is, modern services are more prevalent in advanced economies and are becoming increasingly central within production networks. To evaluate the implications, we construct a multisector general equilibrium model incorporating firm-level frictions in labor hiring and intermediate input purchases. These distortions weaken intersectoral linkages and distort production efficiency. Reducing them to US levels generates significant gains – aggregate output increases by 27% on average and by 50% in developing economies – while accelerating structural transformation toward services, particularly modern services, and enhancing their network centrality.

我们研究了传统和现代服务更大程度地融入国家供应链的总体效应。利用国际投入产出数据，我们记录了中间产品构成的重大跨国差异，并确定了不同的部门模式。也就是说，现代服务业在发达经济体中更为普遍，并在生产网络中日益占据中心地位。为了评估其影响，我们构建了一个多部门一般均衡模型，将劳动力雇佣和中间投入采购中的企业层面摩擦纳入其中。这些扭曲削弱了部门间的联系，扭曲了生产效率。将它们降低到美国的水平会产生显著的收益——总产值平均增长27%，发展中经济体增长50%——同时加速向服务业（特别是现代服务业）的结构转型，并增强其网络中心地位。

引用次数: 0

Bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure: The role of financial mismatch 银行金融科技与企业环境信息披露：金融错配的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479

Ailian Zhang, Yuxin Zhao, Bai Liu

Despite banks' central role as corporate creditors, existing literature offers limited evidence on their influence over firms' environmental behavior, particularly regarding bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure (EID). Based on Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2023, this paper shows that bank fintech correlates with lower levels of EID. The underlying mechanism is that bank fintech alleviates financial mismatches, thereby reducing firms' incentives to signal environmental responsibility through disclosure. Corporate digital transformation attenuates this effect. The negative impact of bank fintech on EID is more pronounced for non–state-owned firms; firms facing lower financing constraints and with higher ESG scores; firms located in regions with weaker environmental regulation and financial development; and firms operating in highly competitive, non–heavily polluting industries. Importantly, bank fintech is found to improve firms’ actual environmental performance. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of EID and offer policy-relevant implications for environmental governance.

尽管银行作为企业债权人发挥着核心作用，但现有文献提供的证据有限，无法证明银行对企业环境行为的影响，特别是在银行金融科技和企业环境信息披露（EID）方面。基于2014 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，本文发现银行金融科技与较低的EID水平相关。其潜在机制是，银行金融科技缓解了金融错配，从而降低了企业通过披露表明环境责任的动机。企业数字化转型减弱了这种影响。银行金融科技对非国有企业EID的负面影响更为明显；面临较低融资约束、ESG得分较高的公司；企业位于环境监管和金融发展较弱的地区；以及在竞争激烈、非重污染行业经营的公司。重要的是，银行金融科技被发现可以改善企业的实际环境绩效。这些发现为研究EID的决定因素提供了新的见解，并为环境治理提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Local government debt and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China 地方政府债务与非金融企业影子银行：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472

Zheng Wu, Alice Y. Ouyang

This study explores how local government debt expansion reshapes the financing behavior and costs of non-financial enterprises, and further motivates enterprises to engage in shadow banking activities. To clarify the underlying mechanism, we conduct an empirical analysis utilizing data on entrusted loans from Chinese non-financial A-share listed enterprises spanning the period 2007–2020. The results show that local government debt expansion tightens bank credit availability for the corporate sector, forcing financing-disadvantaged enterprises to seek alternative funding through entrusted loans. Concurrently, increased demand-driven loan returns attract financing-advantaged enterprises to participate in entrusted loan businesses, accelerating their financialization while transforming financing challenges for disadvantaged corporates from “difficult financing” to “expensive financing.” Our study highlights the critical need to optimize cross-sector credit allocation. Regulatory authorities should closely monitor how local government debt expansion promotes corporate reliance on shadow banking and remain vigilant against risk transmission from the government sector to the corporate sector.

本研究探讨了地方政府债务扩张如何重塑非金融企业的融资行为和融资成本，进而激励企业从事影子银行活动。本文利用2007-2020年中国非金融类a股上市企业委托贷款数据进行了实证分析。结果表明，地方政府债务扩张收紧了企业部门的银行信贷供应，迫使融资困难的企业通过委托贷款寻求替代融资。与此同时，需求驱动型贷款回报的增加吸引了融资优势企业参与委托贷款业务，加快了融资优势企业的金融化进程，同时也使融资劣势企业的融资挑战从“融资难”转变为“融资贵”。我们的研究强调了优化跨部门信贷配置的迫切需要。监管部门应密切监测地方政府债务扩张如何促进企业对影子银行的依赖，并保持警惕，防止风险从政府部门向企业部门传导。

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引用次数: 0

Rule-based profit taxation in dynamic Cournot oligopoly: Transmission, stability and welfare 动态古诺寡头垄断中基于规则的利得税：传导、稳定性和福利

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477

Veronika Nálepová , Marek Lampart

This study develops a dynamic Cournot model to examine whether profit taxation can stabilise oligopolistic markets hit by demand shocks. The tax rate is updated each period by a simple welfare rule, allowing fiscal policy to respond automatically to changing market conditions. The analysis connects the effectiveness with which taxes influence firms’ decision-making (the transmission strength) to market stability. Simulations and chaos analysis show that when the tax signal is strong, firms adjust smoothly, volatility falls and competition is preserved. In contrast, when transmission is weak, feedback effects magnify shocks, increasing exit risk and market concentration. Moderate shocks are absorbed through temporary tax changes, while stronger demand shocks in the model mainly threaten the high-cost firm. Overall, transparent and predictable profit taxation serves as a practical stabiliser in concentrated industries, limiting volatility without ad hoc measures and providing a scalable framework for future fiscal design.

本研究发展了一个动态古诺模型来检验利得税是否可以稳定受到需求冲击的寡头垄断市场。税率根据一项简单的福利规则在每个时期更新，使财政政策能够自动对不断变化的市场条件做出反应。该分析将税收影响企业决策的有效性（传导强度）与市场稳定性联系起来。模拟和混沌分析表明，当税收信号强烈时，企业调整平稳，波动性下降，竞争得以保留。相反，当传导较弱时，反馈效应放大冲击，增加退出风险和市场集中度。适度的冲击通过临时的税收变化被吸收，而模型中较强的需求冲击主要威胁高成本企业。总体而言，透明和可预测的利得税是集中型行业的实际稳定器，在没有特别措施的情况下限制波动性，并为未来的财政设计提供可扩展的框架。

引用次数: 0

Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India 脆弱的企业，猛烈的冲击：印度货币政策在企业层面的不对称传导

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463

Abhay Pratap Raghuvanshi , Wasim Ahmad

How do firm characteristics shape the real effects of monetary policy in emerging markets, and which firms bear the highest cost of tightening? Using firm-level data for India from 2011 to 2022, this paper examines heterogeneity in monetary transmission, focusing on balance-sheet strength, market power, and ownership. Using a panel local-projection framework, we estimate the dynamic response of firm sales to monetary policy shocks. Tightening shocks lead to larger sales contractions among firms with higher leverage, weaker liquidity and profitability, and smaller asset bases. Policy effects are also asymmetric: financially fragile firms suffer a deeper sales reduction during the expansion phase of the business cycle than during the contraction phase. The findings suggest that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates through a balance-sheet channel, where credit frictions amplify the impact of policy shocks, rendering firm financial resilience crucial to the effectiveness of transmission.

企业特征如何塑造新兴市场货币政策的实际效果，哪些企业承担了紧缩政策的最高成本？本文利用2011年至2022年印度企业层面的数据，考察了货币传导的异质性，重点关注资产负债表实力、市场力量和所有权。利用面板局部预测框架，我们估计了企业销售对货币政策冲击的动态响应。紧缩冲击导致杠杆率较高、流动性和盈利能力较弱、资产基础较小的公司出现更大的销售收缩。政策影响也是不对称的：财务脆弱的公司在商业周期的扩张阶段比收缩阶段遭受更大的销售减少。研究结果表明，新兴市场的货币传导是通过资产负债表渠道运作的，信贷摩擦放大了政策冲击的影响，因此企业的金融弹性对传导的有效性至关重要。

引用次数: 0

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