Economic Modelling最新文献

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From struggle to startup: How childhood socioeconomic status shapes entrepreneurial happiness

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106979

Zhiming Cheng , Haining Wang , Xiaoyu Yu , Le Zhang

This study examines the happiness levels of underdog entrepreneurs who started their entrepreneurial journeys as adults after experiencing low socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood. Drawing on data from the 2020 China Family Panel Studies, we find that underdog entrepreneurs who were socioeconomically disadvantaged as children have lower happiness levels than ‘conventional’ entrepreneurs who did not experience similar early life disadvantages. Interestingly, this disparity in happiness is not observed when comparing employees with conventional entrepreneurs. Specific demographic factors associated with lower happiness among underdog entrepreneurs include being female, possessing over nine years of formal education, falling between the ages of 31 and 65 and living in an urban area. We identify income, self-confidence, trust, memory capacity and mental health as mechanisms through which a lower childhood SES influences underdog entrepreneurs' happiness levels. The findings remain robust after applying a series of sensitivity checks.

引用次数: 0

The performance of ESG portfolios: Evidence from the Chinese market under COVID-19

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106958

Shaolin Wang , Ho Cheung Cheng , Jianli Wang , Ho Yin Yick

We investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and portfolio performance in the Chinese stock market. The overall sample period is divided into three subperiods, namely, pre-, during-, and post-pandemic periods. Two different ESG stock portfolio strategies are adopted, that is, an equal-weighted portfolio strategy based on the negative screening method and an optimal portfolio using the classic mean–variance model. By conducting a regression analysis on the relationship between corporate ESG scores and stock returns, we find that ESG elements can lead to better financial performance during the pandemic. Meanwhile, in pre- and post-pandemic periods, ESG elements may have no effect or even a negative effect on financial performance. Our findings also underscore ESG's role in risk mitigation during turbulent periods.

引用次数: 0

Measuring the monetary services of US treasury securities

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106947

Andrew Keinsley

I exploit the imperfect substitutability of US Treasury securities to measure the monetary service flows (e.g. liquidity and safety) they provide and explore their role in fiscal capacity, inflation, and interest rates. Utilizing a non-parametric index, this study quantifies the service flows from these securities, highlighting their critical role beyond traditional debt instruments. The data suggest that, while the stock of Treasury debt is inflationary, the monetary service flows they provide are disinflationary. Additionally, these monetary services put downward pressure on interest rates in the immediate and longer-term, consistent with the idea of a convenience yield. This research contributes to our understanding of Treasury securities and the impact of fiscal debt on the economy, particularly under various economic conditions. It offers insights for policymakers and market participants, especially as we continue to test the limits of fiscal and monetary policy.

引用次数: 0

Do supply chain pressures affect consumer prices in major economies? New evidence from time-varying causality analysis

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106914

Zouhair Mrabet, Mouyad Alsamara, Karim Mimouni, Abdulkareem Awwad

This study explores the dynamic causality between the consumer price index and supply chain pressure index in two large economies. Despite extensive research into the role of supply chains at the firm level, the literature on their impact on time-varying inflation and macroeconomic stability is scarce. Using data from the United States and the European Union from January 2000 to December 2021, we employ novel time-varying causality techniques to examine the evolving relationships among inflation, supply chains, real gross domestic product, interest rates, and oil prices. Our findings show that supply chains have a significant dynamic relationship with consumer prices, particularly during economic crises like the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Robustness tests including impulse response functions and the autoregressive distributed lag model confirm this causality. These results are critical for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of supply chains in controlling inflation and achieving global economic resilience and stability.

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引用次数: 0

Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach 美国救援计划导致了通货膨胀吗？合成控制方法

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106935

Dong Gyun Ko

This paper investigates the fiscal impact of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) on the post-pandemic surge in U.S. inflation. In the existing literature, the dominant strategy for identifying inflation determinants is through structural or reduced-form equation modeling; however, a definitive consensus on the causes of the U.S. inflationary episode remains elusive due to a lack of data-driven counterfactual analysis. To address this gap, we uniquely apply a synthetic control approach to estimate the causal effect of the ARP on U.S. inflation. The findings reveal that the ARP excessively stimulates aggregate demand via large-scale unfunded transfers, causing U.S. inflation to deviate upward from its counterfactual path. Moreover, this policy intervention significantly elevates inflation expectations and diminishes consumer confidence, thereby activating the fiscal limit mechanism: unfunded fiscal shocks, combined with waning fiscal credibility, lead private agents to anticipate that national debt will be inflated away, resulting in large and persistent inflation.

本文研究了美国救援计划（ARP）对大流行后美国通胀飙升的财政影响。在现有文献中，确定通胀决定因素的主要策略是通过结构方程或还原方程建模；然而，由于缺乏数据驱动的反事实分析，人们对美国通胀事件的原因仍未达成明确共识。为了弥补这一不足，我们独特地采用了一种合成控制方法来估计 ARP 对美国通胀的因果效应。研究结果表明，ARP 通过大规模无资金保障的转移支付过度刺激了总需求，导致美国通胀率偏离了其反事实路径。此外，这种政策干预大大抬高了通胀预期，削弱了消费者信心，从而激活了财政限制机制：资金无着落的财政冲击，加上财政信誉的减弱，导致私人代理人预期国债将被膨胀掉，从而导致大规模和持续的通胀。

引用次数: 0

Grandchild care and grandparents’ labor supply 孙辈照料和祖父母的劳动力供给

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106936

Yanran Chen , Youji Lyu

Grandchild care is becoming an increasingly important part of raising children as the population ages and the cost of parenting increases. However, the labor supply effect of grandchild care on grandparents remains understudied. This study aims to identify the causal impact of grandchild care on grandparents’ labor supply in China. The main estimates demonstrate that providing grandchild care would significantly and intensively crowd out grandparents’ labor supply, particularly for grandmothers. Further heterogeneity analyses suggest that the negative labor supply effect varies by employment status and sector, regional characteristics, and grandparents’ demographic features. The paper also demonstrates that the negative labor supply effect operates via two pathways: reduced old-age income and increased adult children’s income, with the latter dominating the former. Moreover, the findings show that increased grandchild care is associated with a lower incidence of financial transfers from parents to grandparents.

随着人口老龄化和养育成本的增加，祖辈照料正成为养育子女的一个日益重要的组成部分。然而，孙辈照料对祖父母劳动力供给的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究旨在确定孙辈照料对中国祖父母劳动力供给的因果影响。主要估计结果表明，提供孙子女照料会显著且密集地挤出祖父母的劳动力供给，尤其是对祖母而言。进一步的异质性分析表明，劳动供给负效应因就业状况和行业、地区特征以及祖父母的人口特征而异。本文还证明，负的劳动力供给效应通过两个途径产生：养老收入减少和成年子女收入增加，后者在前者中占主导地位。此外，研究结果表明，对孙辈照顾的增加与父母向祖父母经济转移的发生率降低有关。

引用次数: 0

The cyclicality of the finance premium over the business cycle 融资溢价在商业周期中的周期性

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106943

George J. Bratsiotis , Chashika D. Kalubowila

This paper examines the main determinants of the cyclicality of the finance premium in the cost channel framework, which has received less attention in the literature. We decompose the finance premium into a cost effect and a leverage effect. We show that in both the cost channel model and the credit channel model (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist 1999), the cyclicality of the finance premium is determined mainly by the size and sign of the leverage effect. Some key factors that determine the leverage effect are, the nature of shocks, the degree of loan persistence in relation to output or net worth, and the stance of monetary policy.

本文研究了成本渠道框架下融资溢价周期性的主要决定因素，该框架在文献中受到的关注较少。我们将融资溢价分解为成本效应和杠杆效应。我们的研究表明，在成本渠道模型和信贷渠道模型（伯南克、格特勒和吉尔克里斯特，1999 年）中，融资溢价的周期性主要由杠杆效应的大小和符号决定。决定杠杆效应的一些关键因素包括：冲击的性质、贷款相对于产出或净值的持续程度以及货币政策的立场。

引用次数: 0

Disentangling the heterogeneous effect of natural resources on economic growth 厘清自然资源对经济增长的异质性影响

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106927

Daniel Aparicio-Pérez , Jordi Ripollés

Previous studies on the impact of natural resources on economic growth have produced mixed results, which could be partly explained by unobserved heterogeneity that has not been adequately accounted for. This paper aims to identify this heterogeneity in the resource-growth nexus and explore the potential factors driving it. Using a panel dataset of 97 countries from 1990 to 2019, we apply a grouped fixed-effects estimator to identify groups of countries with distinct time-varying growth patterns and differing economic responses to natural resource wealth. We then use an ordered probit model to examine the drivers of this heterogeneity, focusing on institutional factors and other transmission channels. Our findings show that economic and political institutions, social capital, and export diversification are key to explaining group membership, with some groups experiencing positive and others negative resource-growth effects. This underscores the need to account for unobserved heterogeneity and consider institutional quality as multidimensional.

以往关于自然资源对经济增长的影响的研究结果好坏参半，部分原因可能是未充分考虑到未观察到的异质性。本文旨在确定资源与经济增长关系中的这种异质性，并探索驱动这种异质性的潜在因素。利用 1990 年至 2019 年 97 个国家的面板数据集，我们采用分组固定效应估计器来识别具有不同时变增长模式和对自然资源财富的不同经济反应的国家组。然后，我们使用有序概率模型研究这种异质性的驱动因素，重点关注制度因素和其他传导渠道。我们的研究结果表明，经济和政治体制、社会资本和出口多样化是解释群体成员资格的关键，一些群体经历了积极的资源增长效应，而另一些群体则经历了消极的资源增长效应。这突出表明，有必要考虑未观察到的异质性，并将制度质量视为多维的。

引用次数: 0

A spatial one-sided error model to identify where unarrested criminals live 确定未被捕罪犯居住地的空间单边误差模型

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106929

Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Andrés Ramírez-Hassan

The place of residence of unarrested criminals is mostly unknown. Existing research has not yet exploited that arrested criminals are a lower bound for criminals to enhance law enforcement and design structural policies. Based upon the stochastic frontier analysis, we propose a model to identify neighborhoods where unarrested criminals are likelier to live. We illustrate our approach empirically by considering Medellín, Colombia, a natural experimental field to analyze crime. We identify that unarrested murderers and drug dealers often reside in overlapping or neighboring areas with shared risk factors, reflecting the city’s history of drug-related violence. In addition, we find that employment policies targeting the young and unemployed living in the central-east and the north can mitigate homicides and motorcycle thefts. These findings illustrate how our proposal can be implemented to strengthen state capacities and design targeted, place-based policies for preventing and mitigating crime.

未被捕罪犯的居住地大多不为人知。现有研究尚未利用被捕罪犯作为罪犯的下限来加强执法和设计结构性政策。基于随机前沿分析，我们提出了一个模型来识别未被捕罪犯更有可能居住的街区。哥伦比亚麦德林是一个分析犯罪的天然实验场，我们通过该实验场来说明我们的方法。我们发现，未被捕的杀人犯和毒贩往往居住在具有共同风险因素的重叠或邻近地区，这反映了该市与毒品有关的暴力历史。此外，我们还发现，针对居住在中东部和北部的年轻人和失业者的就业政策可以缓解凶杀案和摩托车盗窃案。这些发现说明了如何通过实施我们的建议来加强国家能力，并设计有针对性的、以地方为基础的政策来预防和减轻犯罪。

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Understanding the informal economy: The influence of political ideology during financial crises 了解非正规经济：金融危机期间政治意识形态的影响

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106934

Thanh Cong Nguyen , Thuy Tien Ho

This study investigates both the short- and long-run impact of different types of financial crises on the size of the informal economy, addressing the gap in the crisis-informality relationship. Using a sample of 320 financial crises in 146 countries over the period 1993–2020, we provide evidence that financial crises lead to a persistent increase in the size of the informal economy, confirming that the hidden economy serves as both a safety net for household income and a crisis amplifier. Rising unemployment and prolonged financial crises, especially debt crises, are mechanisms that explain these results. Left-wing governments’ policies, by promoting labour rights and protections, reduce labour market flexibility and consequently expand the informal economy during financial crises. These findings benefit policymakers by offering new insights into the crisis-informality relationship and the influence of political ideology.

本研究调查了不同类型的金融危机对非正规经济规模的短期和长期影响，解决了危机与非正规经济关系中的空白。利用 1993-2020 年间 146 个国家 320 次金融危机的样本，我们提供了金融危机导致非正规经济规模持续扩大的证据，证实了隐性经济既是家庭收入的安全网，也是危机的放大器。失业率上升和长期金融危机，尤其是债务危机，是解释这些结果的机制。左翼政府的政策通过促进劳工权利和保护，降低了劳动力市场的灵活性，从而在金融危机期间扩大了非正规经济。这些发现为政策制定者提供了关于危机与非正规经济关系以及政治意识形态影响的新见解，从而使他们受益匪浅。

引用次数: 0

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