Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Capital requirements and risk-taking in community banks: The role of market power 社区银行的资本要求和风险承担：市场力量的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471

Chenzi Yang , Guang-Zhao Yang , Fernando Moreira , Thomas Welsh Archibald

This paper examines the impact of capital requirements on risk-taking in U.S. community banks. While existing literature highlights capital requirements’ influence on liquidity and credit risks, the differential impact across market power characteristics especially for smaller institutions remains unclear. Using data from 5702 U.S. community banks, we employ 2SLS-IV models to reveal an inverted U-shaped effect of capital requirements on liquidity risk and a U-shaped effect on credit risk. The impact of capital requirements diminishes as market power increases, particularly in banks with lower liquid assets, liabilities, and transaction deposits. The impact of Tier 1 and CET1 capital requirements exhibit similar patterns, while CCB requirements display an opposite trend. These findings offer new insights into financial risk management, highlighting the need for tailored regulatory approaches for community banks with low market power to enhance overall stability.

本文考察了资本要求对美国社区银行风险承担的影响。虽然现有文献强调了资本要求对流动性和信用风险的影响，但市场力量特征之间的差异影响，特别是对小型机构的影响仍不清楚。利用5702家美国社区银行的数据，我们采用2SLS-IV模型揭示了资本要求对流动性风险的倒u型效应和对信用风险的u型效应。资本要求的影响随着市场力量的增强而减弱，特别是在流动性资产、负债和交易存款较低的银行。一级和CET1资本要求的影响表现出类似的模式，而建设银行的要求则表现出相反的趋势。这些发现为金融风险管理提供了新的见解，突出了为市场支配力较低的社区银行制定量身定制的监管方法以提高整体稳定性的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Production networks and structural transformation 生产网络和结构转型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107461

Fernando Barros Jr , Bruno R. Delalibera , Marcos J. Ribeiro , Marc Teignier

We examine the aggregate effects of greater integration of traditional and modern services into national supply chains. Using international input–output data, we document substantial cross-country variation in the composition of intermediate goods and identify distinct sectoral patterns. That is, modern services are more prevalent in advanced economies and are becoming increasingly central within production networks. To evaluate the implications, we construct a multisector general equilibrium model incorporating firm-level frictions in labor hiring and intermediate input purchases. These distortions weaken intersectoral linkages and distort production efficiency. Reducing them to US levels generates significant gains – aggregate output increases by 27% on average and by 50% in developing economies – while accelerating structural transformation toward services, particularly modern services, and enhancing their network centrality.

我们研究了传统和现代服务更大程度地融入国家供应链的总体效应。利用国际投入产出数据，我们记录了中间产品构成的重大跨国差异，并确定了不同的部门模式。也就是说，现代服务业在发达经济体中更为普遍，并在生产网络中日益占据中心地位。为了评估其影响，我们构建了一个多部门一般均衡模型，将劳动力雇佣和中间投入采购中的企业层面摩擦纳入其中。这些扭曲削弱了部门间的联系，扭曲了生产效率。将它们降低到美国的水平会产生显著的收益——总产值平均增长27%，发展中经济体增长50%——同时加速向服务业（特别是现代服务业）的结构转型，并增强其网络中心地位。

引用次数: 0

Bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure: The role of financial mismatch 银行金融科技与企业环境信息披露：金融错配的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479

Ailian Zhang, Yuxin Zhao, Bai Liu

Despite banks' central role as corporate creditors, existing literature offers limited evidence on their influence over firms' environmental behavior, particularly regarding bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure (EID). Based on Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2023, this paper shows that bank fintech correlates with lower levels of EID. The underlying mechanism is that bank fintech alleviates financial mismatches, thereby reducing firms' incentives to signal environmental responsibility through disclosure. Corporate digital transformation attenuates this effect. The negative impact of bank fintech on EID is more pronounced for non–state-owned firms; firms facing lower financing constraints and with higher ESG scores; firms located in regions with weaker environmental regulation and financial development; and firms operating in highly competitive, non–heavily polluting industries. Importantly, bank fintech is found to improve firms’ actual environmental performance. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of EID and offer policy-relevant implications for environmental governance.

尽管银行作为企业债权人发挥着核心作用，但现有文献提供的证据有限，无法证明银行对企业环境行为的影响，特别是在银行金融科技和企业环境信息披露（EID）方面。基于2014 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，本文发现银行金融科技与较低的EID水平相关。其潜在机制是，银行金融科技缓解了金融错配，从而降低了企业通过披露表明环境责任的动机。企业数字化转型减弱了这种影响。银行金融科技对非国有企业EID的负面影响更为明显；面临较低融资约束、ESG得分较高的公司；企业位于环境监管和金融发展较弱的地区；以及在竞争激烈、非重污染行业经营的公司。重要的是，银行金融科技被发现可以改善企业的实际环境绩效。这些发现为研究EID的决定因素提供了新的见解，并为环境治理提供了与政策相关的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Local government debt and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China 地方政府债务与非金融企业影子银行：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472

Zheng Wu, Alice Y. Ouyang

This study explores how local government debt expansion reshapes the financing behavior and costs of non-financial enterprises, and further motivates enterprises to engage in shadow banking activities. To clarify the underlying mechanism, we conduct an empirical analysis utilizing data on entrusted loans from Chinese non-financial A-share listed enterprises spanning the period 2007–2020. The results show that local government debt expansion tightens bank credit availability for the corporate sector, forcing financing-disadvantaged enterprises to seek alternative funding through entrusted loans. Concurrently, increased demand-driven loan returns attract financing-advantaged enterprises to participate in entrusted loan businesses, accelerating their financialization while transforming financing challenges for disadvantaged corporates from “difficult financing” to “expensive financing.” Our study highlights the critical need to optimize cross-sector credit allocation. Regulatory authorities should closely monitor how local government debt expansion promotes corporate reliance on shadow banking and remain vigilant against risk transmission from the government sector to the corporate sector.

本研究探讨了地方政府债务扩张如何重塑非金融企业的融资行为和融资成本，进而激励企业从事影子银行活动。本文利用2007-2020年中国非金融类a股上市企业委托贷款数据进行了实证分析。结果表明，地方政府债务扩张收紧了企业部门的银行信贷供应，迫使融资困难的企业通过委托贷款寻求替代融资。与此同时，需求驱动型贷款回报的增加吸引了融资优势企业参与委托贷款业务，加快了融资优势企业的金融化进程，同时也使融资劣势企业的融资挑战从“融资难”转变为“融资贵”。我们的研究强调了优化跨部门信贷配置的迫切需要。监管部门应密切监测地方政府债务扩张如何促进企业对影子银行的依赖，并保持警惕，防止风险从政府部门向企业部门传导。

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引用次数: 0

Rule-based profit taxation in dynamic Cournot oligopoly: Transmission, stability and welfare 动态古诺寡头垄断中基于规则的利得税：传导、稳定性和福利

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477

Veronika Nálepová , Marek Lampart

This study develops a dynamic Cournot model to examine whether profit taxation can stabilise oligopolistic markets hit by demand shocks. The tax rate is updated each period by a simple welfare rule, allowing fiscal policy to respond automatically to changing market conditions. The analysis connects the effectiveness with which taxes influence firms’ decision-making (the transmission strength) to market stability. Simulations and chaos analysis show that when the tax signal is strong, firms adjust smoothly, volatility falls and competition is preserved. In contrast, when transmission is weak, feedback effects magnify shocks, increasing exit risk and market concentration. Moderate shocks are absorbed through temporary tax changes, while stronger demand shocks in the model mainly threaten the high-cost firm. Overall, transparent and predictable profit taxation serves as a practical stabiliser in concentrated industries, limiting volatility without ad hoc measures and providing a scalable framework for future fiscal design.

本研究发展了一个动态古诺模型来检验利得税是否可以稳定受到需求冲击的寡头垄断市场。税率根据一项简单的福利规则在每个时期更新，使财政政策能够自动对不断变化的市场条件做出反应。该分析将税收影响企业决策的有效性（传导强度）与市场稳定性联系起来。模拟和混沌分析表明，当税收信号强烈时，企业调整平稳，波动性下降，竞争得以保留。相反，当传导较弱时，反馈效应放大冲击，增加退出风险和市场集中度。适度的冲击通过临时的税收变化被吸收，而模型中较强的需求冲击主要威胁高成本企业。总体而言，透明和可预测的利得税是集中型行业的实际稳定器，在没有特别措施的情况下限制波动性，并为未来的财政设计提供可扩展的框架。

引用次数: 0

Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India 脆弱的企业，猛烈的冲击：印度货币政策在企业层面的不对称传导

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463

Abhay Pratap Raghuvanshi , Wasim Ahmad

How do firm characteristics shape the real effects of monetary policy in emerging markets, and which firms bear the highest cost of tightening? Using firm-level data for India from 2011 to 2022, this paper examines heterogeneity in monetary transmission, focusing on balance-sheet strength, market power, and ownership. Using a panel local-projection framework, we estimate the dynamic response of firm sales to monetary policy shocks. Tightening shocks lead to larger sales contractions among firms with higher leverage, weaker liquidity and profitability, and smaller asset bases. Policy effects are also asymmetric: financially fragile firms suffer a deeper sales reduction during the expansion phase of the business cycle than during the contraction phase. The findings suggest that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates through a balance-sheet channel, where credit frictions amplify the impact of policy shocks, rendering firm financial resilience crucial to the effectiveness of transmission.

企业特征如何塑造新兴市场货币政策的实际效果，哪些企业承担了紧缩政策的最高成本？本文利用2011年至2022年印度企业层面的数据，考察了货币传导的异质性，重点关注资产负债表实力、市场力量和所有权。利用面板局部预测框架，我们估计了企业销售对货币政策冲击的动态响应。紧缩冲击导致杠杆率较高、流动性和盈利能力较弱、资产基础较小的公司出现更大的销售收缩。政策影响也是不对称的：财务脆弱的公司在商业周期的扩张阶段比收缩阶段遭受更大的销售减少。研究结果表明，新兴市场的货币传导是通过资产负债表渠道运作的，信贷摩擦放大了政策冲击的影响，因此企业的金融弹性对传导的有效性至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China 通过信贷实现绿色：中国绿色信贷与污染企业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476

Minzhi Wang , Xinxin Guo , Yu Gu

Exploiting China's green credit policy (GCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit on polluting firm dynamics using a difference-in-differences method. We show that the GCP reduces the number of firm entries by 10.1 % and increases the number of firm exits by 9.1 % in polluting industries. Our mechanism analyses further corroborate that the GCP significantly intensifies financing constraints for polluting firms, resulting in increased entry barriers and operational costs. Heterogeneous tests show that the effect is more pronounced in cities with a higher level of marketization or stricter environmental regulation and industries with higher market competition or larger irreversible investments. Additionally, we find that the GCP leads to better-quality entrants with larger scale, higher total factor productivity, and lower pollution discharge intensity. These results imply that the GCP promotes efficient resource allocation, manifested in the transfer of production factors to more productive and cleaner firms.

本文以中国绿色信贷政策为准自然实验，运用差分法考察了绿色信贷对污染企业动态的影响。我们发现，GCP使污染行业的企业进入数量减少了10.1%，退出数量增加了9.1%。我们的机制分析进一步证实，GCP显著加剧了污染企业的融资约束，导致进入壁垒和运营成本增加。异质性检验表明，在市场化程度较高或环境监管较严的城市，以及市场竞争程度较高或不可逆投资较大的行业，这种效应更为明显。此外，我们发现GCP导致了规模更大、全要素生产率更高、污染排放强度更低的优质进入者。这些结果表明，GCP促进了有效的资源配置，表现为生产要素向生产率更高、更清洁的企业转移。

引用次数: 0

Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China 环境规制与企业内部薪酬分配：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474

Feiteng Lin , Wenqiang Chen , Chaosu Qian , Meimeng Lv

Investigating the effects of environmental regulation on income distribution is a crucial extension of assessing the economic impacts of environmental policies. However, the current literature lacks a thorough discussion on how environmental regulation affects income distribution, particularly concerning the pay gap within firms. In this paper, we employ the implementation of China's Key Pollutant-Discharging Units List policy as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms. Our findings indicate that environmental regulation significantly exacerbates the pay gap within firms, as evidenced by increased management compensation and reduced compensation for ordinary employees. Mechanism analysis suggests that governance pressure and financial pressure are potential pathways through which this effect occurs. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the widening effect of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms is more pronounced in non-state-controlled enterprises and firms subject to stringent local regulatory enforcement.

调查环境法规对收入分配的影响是评估环境政策的经济影响的重要延伸。然而，目前的文献缺乏对环境法规如何影响收入分配的深入讨论，特别是关于公司内部的薪酬差距。在本文中，我们采用中国重点排污单位清单政策的实施作为准自然实验来研究环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的影响。我们的研究结果表明，环境监管显著加剧了企业内部的薪酬差距，表现为管理层薪酬的增加和普通员工薪酬的减少。机制分析表明，治理压力和财务压力是这一效应发生的潜在途径。异质性检验表明，环境监管对企业内部薪酬差距的扩大效应在非国有控股企业和受到严格地方监管的企业中更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Distrust and disclosure: Greenwashing governance and the neglected incentive withdrawal signals of environmental subsidies 不信任与披露：漂绿治理与被忽视的环境补贴激励退出信号

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462

Tong Yue , Jian Tong , Xinyi Wen , Chengjun Chu

This paper examines how incentive withdrawal signals embedded in environmental subsidies help curb corporate greenwashing. Drawing on information asymmetry theory, we develop a signaling model that captures the strategic interaction between greenwashing and subsidy allocation and validate it using evidence from Chinese firms. We find that greenwashing reduces environmental subsidies by 0.602 %, primarily through two mechanisms: unfulfilled presubsidy environmental commitments and negative spillovers from external evaluations. Positive information disclosure, in turn, enhances government trust. Compared with firms that report strong financial performance or receive favorable external evaluations, poorly performing firms experience larger subsidy reductions of 0.498 %–0.784 % when engaged in greenwashing. These results demonstrate that subsidy withdrawal is an effective tool for governing the “gray area” of greenwashing and underscore the adaptive role of local authorities operating under limited information.

本文考察了环境补贴中的激励退出信号如何有助于遏制企业的“漂绿”行为。利用信息不对称理论，我们建立了一个信号模型，该模型捕捉了漂绿与补贴分配之间的战略相互作用，并使用来自中国企业的证据对其进行了验证。研究发现，“漂绿”使环境补贴减少了0.602%，主要通过两种机制：未履行的补贴前环境承诺和外部评价的负面溢出。积极的信息披露反过来又增强了政府的信任。与财务表现良好或外部评价良好的公司相比，表现不佳的公司在进行“洗绿”时，补贴减少幅度更大，为0.498 % -0.784 %。这些结果表明，取消补贴是治理洗绿“灰色地带”的有效工具，并强调了地方政府在信息有限的情况下运作的适应性作用。

引用次数: 0

Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China 技术发展对老年人就业的影响：来自中国高新技术产业扩张的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464

Xi Luo , Kaidong Jia , Yiming Xia , Guochang Zhao

Technological development and population ageing have been two defining trends in recent decades. However, whether technological advancements reinstate or displace employment opportunities for older workers remains unclear. Using a nationally representative dataset from China and the Bartik instrumental variable approach, we observe that while the overall impact of technological development on employment is estimated to be negative but statistically insignificant, the negative effect intensifies with age and becomes negative beyond the age of approximately 42. We suggest that displacement effects outweigh reinstatement effects, as the negative impact is driven primarily by older adults with lower socioeconomic statuses, who are more vulnerable to job displacement.

近几十年来，技术发展和人口老龄化是两大决定性趋势。然而，技术进步是否恢复或取代了老年工人的就业机会仍不清楚。利用中国具有全国代表性的数据集和Bartik工具变量方法，我们观察到，虽然技术发展对就业的总体影响估计是负面的，但统计上不显著，但这种负面影响随着年龄的增长而加剧，并在大约42岁之后变为负值。我们认为，流离失所效应大于恢复效应，因为负面影响主要是由社会经济地位较低的老年人驱动的，他们更容易受到工作流离失所的影响。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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