Economic Modelling最新文献

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How tax structure shapes FDI attractiveness and economic growth in developing economies? 税收结构如何影响发展中经济体的FDI吸引力和经济增长？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107513

Quang Khai Nguyen , Dinh Long Tran

This study examines how tax structure shapes FDI attractiveness and economic growth in developing countries, focusing on two major tax types: taxes on goods and services and taxes on income, profits, and capital gains. We used panel data from 57 developing countries over the period 2000–2021 and applied the fixed-effects, quantile regression, and 3SLS models, with the method of moments quantile regression technique and PROCESS Model 4 as robustness checks. The results show that both tax types are generally associated with lower economic growth but have opposite effects on FDI attractiveness; taxes on goods and services tend to enhance FDI attractiveness, whereas taxes on income, profits, and capital gains reduce FDI attractiveness. In low-growth countries, however, both tax categories positively affect economic growth. Moreover, FDI attractiveness mediates the tax–growth relationship: income-based taxes reduce growth by discouraging FDI, while consumption-based taxes partly offset their negative growth effects by attracting FDI. Overall, the findings highlight that tax design matters as much as revenue levels for investment-led growth in developing countries.

本研究考察了税收结构如何影响发展中国家的外国直接投资吸引力和经济增长，重点关注两种主要税收类型：商品和服务税以及收入、利润和资本利得税。我们使用来自57个发展中国家2000-2021年的面板数据，应用固定效应、分位数回归和3SLS模型，并使用矩分位数回归技术和PROCESS Model 4作为稳健性检验。结果表明，两种税收类型总体上与较低的经济增长率相关，但对FDI吸引力的影响相反；对商品和服务征税往往会增强FDI的吸引力，而对收入、利润和资本利得征税会降低FDI的吸引力。然而，在低增长国家，这两种税种对经济增长都有积极影响。此外，外国直接投资吸引力调节了税收增长关系：所得税通过抑制外国直接投资而减少增长，而消费税通过吸引外国直接投资而部分抵消了其负增长效应。总体而言，研究结果强调，在发展中国家，税收设计与收入水平对投资拉动型增长同样重要。

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引用次数: 0

Innovation-economic trade-offs:A perspective of low-carbon policy intensity 创新与经济的权衡：低碳政策强度的视角

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107527

Hao Wang , Li-Jing Liu

Existing literature emphasizes low-carbon policy implementation and benefits but overlooks intensity effects and trade-offs. This study introduces a low-carbon policy intensity index, a composite indicator of stringency and prioritization, to analyze the effects of policy intensity on city-level carbon total factor productivity and identify potential trade-offs. The analysis demonstrates spatial heterogeneity in policy effectiveness, with less-developed, resource-dependent, and small cities exhibiting heightened responsiveness to rigorous measures. Key mechanisms include green technology innovation and efficiency catch-up effects. However, two trade-offs emerge: (1) innovation tends to prioritize quantity over quality; (2) industrial restructuring generates short-term economic transition pressures. Scenario analysis shows that economic structural adjustment—particularly electricity optimization can mitigate these dilemmas by sustaining growth while curbing emissions. These findings demonstrate that shifting from nominal policy adoption to structural reforms and optimized intensity is key to balancing economic and environmental goals.

现有文献强调低碳政策的实施和效益，但忽视了强度效应和权衡。本研究引入低碳政策强度指数，即政策严格度和优先度的复合指标，分析政策强度对城市碳全要素生产率的影响，并识别潜在的权衡。分析表明，政策有效性存在空间异质性，欠发达、资源依赖型和小城市对严格措施的响应程度更高。关键机制包括绿色技术创新和效率追赶效应。然而，存在两种权衡：(1)创新倾向于优先考虑数量而不是质量；(2)产业结构调整产生短期经济转型压力。情景分析表明，经济结构调整——特别是电力优化——可以在保持增长的同时抑制排放，从而缓解这些困境。这些发现表明，从名义上的政策采纳转向结构改革和优化强度是平衡经济和环境目标的关键。

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引用次数: 0

Traditional clans and modern corporate ESG: Evidence from China 传统宗族与现代企业ESG：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107520

Qiucen Ma , Zhiyuan Chen , Congming Ding

This study examines how China's traditional clans affect the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance of modern firms. Employing prefecture-level genealogical data and data on A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2022, we find that firms located in regions with strong clan influence tend to exhibit superior ESG performance, particularly in the environmental dimension. This effect is primarily driven by the cultural influence and organizational functions of clans. We also demonstrate that the influence of clans is more significant for firms and regions where formal regulatory oversight is weaker. Our research contributes to the literature by introducing an informal institutional perspective on the determinants of ESG performance.

本研究考察了中国传统宗族如何影响现代企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效。利用地级市家谱数据和2009 - 2022年a股上市公司数据，我们发现位于家族影响力强地区的公司往往表现出更优异的ESG绩效，尤其是在环境维度。这种影响主要是由氏族的文化影响和组织功能驱动的。我们还证明，宗族的影响对于正规监管较弱的公司和地区更为显著。我们的研究通过引入非正式的制度视角来研究ESG绩效的决定因素，从而为文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

How population aging and digital transformation reshape labor income share? Mechanisms of firm-level substitution and urban job expansion 人口老龄化和数字化转型如何重塑劳动收入份额？企业层面替代与城镇就业扩张机制

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107517

Qing Guo , Xiangquan Zeng , Lulu Yuan

The impact of population aging and digital transformation on the labor income share remains insufficiently understood. Prior research typically examines these forces separately, leaving uncertain how their interaction shapes factor income distribution. This study jointly investigates the effects of aging and digitalization using firm- and city-level data from China (2010–2020) combined with monthly recruitment-platform data to identify the causal impact of demographic shifts and technological change. At the firm level, population aging amplifies the labor-substituting effect of digital adoption, raising capital intensity while reducing labor income share. At the city level, aging strengthens the job-creating effects of digitalization, expanding platform jobs and self-employment that increase labor income share. By revealing these opposing mechanisms—capital substitution versus platform job creation—our findings advance understanding of how demographic and technological forces interact and suggest policies that promote retraining, inclusive digitalization, and flexible labor reforms.

人口老龄化和数字化转型对劳动收入占比的影响仍未得到充分认识。先前的研究通常分别考察这些力量，不确定它们的相互作用如何影响要素收入分配。本研究利用2010-2020年中国企业和城市层面的数据，结合每月招聘平台数据，联合调查了老龄化和数字化的影响，以确定人口变化和技术变革的因果影响。在企业层面，人口老龄化放大了数字化采用的劳动力替代效应，提高了资本密集度，同时降低了劳动收入份额。在城市层面，老龄化强化了数字化的就业创造效应，扩大了平台就业和自主创业，提高了劳动收入份额。通过揭示这些对立的机制——资本替代与平台创造就业——我们的研究结果促进了对人口和技术力量如何相互作用的理解，并提出了促进再培训、包容性数字化和灵活劳动力改革的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

How perceived uncertainty shapes corporate resilience: Evidence from China 感知不确定性如何塑造企业弹性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107514

Chengming Huang , Sultan Sikandar Mirza , Chengwei Zhang

This study examines how firms respond to shifts in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) by analyzing its impact on firm resilience. Using data from 2660 Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that higher firm-perceived policy uncertainty (FEPU) significantly weakens firm resilience. Drawing on real options and growth options perspectives, the results show that firms become less adaptable when uncertainty leads managers to behave more cautiously and when operational decisions—such as cash reserves and R&D spending—are distorted. Social media pressure, however, softens this negative effect by encouraging greater transparency and discipline. The findings also reveal substantial differences across ownership types, financial conditions, and industry characteristics. The study provides practical insights for managers and policymakers seeking to strengthen organizational resilience in uncertain environments and highlights the need to design governance and communication strategies that help firms remain adaptive when policy risks rise.

本研究通过分析经济政策不确定性（EPU）对企业弹性的影响，探讨企业如何应对经济政策不确定性的变化。利用2010 - 2022年2660家中国a股上市公司的数据，我们发现较高的企业感知政策不确定性（FEPU）显著削弱了企业的弹性。从实物期权和增长期权的角度来看，研究结果表明，当不确定性导致管理者行为更加谨慎，当运营决策（如现金储备和研发支出）被扭曲时，企业的适应性会降低。然而，社交媒体的压力通过鼓励更大的透明度和纪律来缓和这种负面影响。研究结果还揭示了所有权类型、财务状况和行业特征之间的巨大差异。该研究为寻求在不确定环境中加强组织弹性的管理者和政策制定者提供了实用的见解，并强调了设计治理和沟通策略的必要性，以帮助企业在政策风险上升时保持适应性。

引用次数: 0

The collateral damage of U.S. sanctions: Evidence from Chinese peer firms during the trade war 美国制裁的附带损害：来自贸易战期间中国同行公司的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107512

Xihao Wu, Di Zhang, Yani Sun

The U.S.–China trade war has significantly impacted global economic relations, yet its spillover effects on non-targeted firms remain underexplored. Using U.S. sanctions since 2018 as an exogenous shock, this study investigates the spillover effects on Chinese peer firms. Results show that these sanctions reduced the average net profit margin of Chinese peer firms by 3.69 %, with stronger spillovers in sectors more connected to U.S. businesses, those exporting more to TTIP countries before the trade war, and those facing heavier sanctions. Additionally, peer firms cut investment by 0.64%, increased layoffs by 8.36%, and raised R&D spending by 41.42%. These findings deepen our understanding of trade war spillovers and offer guidance for designing resilient trade policies in an uncertain global environment.

中美贸易战对全球经济关系产生了重大影响，但其对非目标企业的溢出效应仍未得到充分探讨。本研究以2018年以来的美国制裁作为外生冲击，考察了对中国同行企业的溢出效应。结果显示，这些制裁使中国同行企业的平均净利润率降低了3.69%，与美国企业联系更紧密的行业、贸易战前对TTIP国家出口更多的行业以及面临更严厉制裁的行业的溢出效应更强。此外，同行公司削减了0.64%的投资，增加了8.36%的裁员，增加了41.42%的研发支出。这些发现加深了我们对贸易战溢出效应的理解，并为在不确定的全球环境下设计有弹性的贸易政策提供了指导。

引用次数: 0

Tackling labor market inequalities through minimum and maximum wages 通过最低和最高工资解决劳动力市场不平等问题

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107495

Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Marco Stamegna , David Cano Ortiz , Simone D’Alessandro , Pietro Guarnieri

Income inequality in labor markets arises from both inadequate pay at the bottom and excessive remuneration at the top of the wage distribution. Statutory minimum wages have proven effective in addressing low wages and in-work poverty, yet many countries have not fully implemented them. Conversely, salary caps have received relatively little attention as instruments to limit top incomes. This paper examines the effects of introducing both minimum and maximum wages in Italy using Eurogreen, a macro-simulation model that integrates a dynamic input–output framework with labor market heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the joint implementation of these policies substantially reduces labor market inequalities without compromising overall economic performance. Minimum wages help mitigate disparities across skill levels, occupational groups, and industrial sectors, while maximum wages are particularly effective in narrowing the gender pay gap. These results suggest that well-designed wage policies can serve as powerful tools for fostering more inclusive and equitable labor markets.

劳动力市场的收入不平等源于工资分配中底层的薪酬不足和顶层的薪酬过高。事实证明，法定最低工资在解决低工资和在职贫困问题方面是有效的，但许多国家尚未全面实施法定最低工资。相反，作为限制最高收入的工具，工资上限受到的关注相对较少。本文使用Eurogreen宏观模拟模型考察了在意大利引入最低工资和最高工资的影响，Eurogreen将动态投入产出框架与劳动力市场异质性整合在一起。我们的研究结果表明，这些政策的联合实施在不影响整体经济表现的情况下，大大减少了劳动力市场的不平等。最低工资有助于缓解技能水平、职业群体和工业部门之间的差距，而最高工资在缩小性别工资差距方面尤其有效。这些结果表明，设计良好的工资政策可以成为促进更加包容和公平的劳动力市场的有力工具。

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引用次数: 0

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries 系统风险分析：评估发展中国家的复合经济风险

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511

Askar Mukashov , Sherman Robinson , Channing Arndt , James Thurlow , Tim Thomas

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries' GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya's primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya's agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

本文提出了一个系统的风险分析框架，以确定发展中国家面临的最关键的经济风险。将可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型与历史冲击数据和机器学习工具相结合，我们研究了复合冲击如何影响发展结果。我们将这种方法应用于肯尼亚、卢旺达和马拉维，模拟了数千种世界价格、资本流动和生产率外生冲击的合理组合，以及它们对各国GDP、家庭消费、贫困和营养不良的影响。结果揭示了由结构差异驱动的不同风险概况：肯尼亚的主要脆弱性是全球饮料作物价格的波动，而卢旺达和马拉维分别面临国内块根作物和谷物产量的最高风险。这些发现强调，脆弱性不仅与冲击程度有关，还与每个经济体的具体结构有关。具体而言，马拉维和卢旺达的经济高度波动是由自给农业的作用更大和国内产量波动更大造成的，而肯尼亚的农业部门则更多地以出口为导向。与标准的临时情景分析不同，SRP量化了复合事件的可能性及其驱动因素的相对重要性。这一透明、可扩展的框架为政策制定者提供了一种新的工具，使他们能够超越被动措施，为日益动荡的世界设计有针对性的、针对具体国家的复原力战略。

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引用次数: 0

Can the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area policy improve China's FDI quality? 跨境电子商务综合试验区政策能否提升中国FDI质量？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107503

Yunshi Cao , Yanzhen Wang , Chang Hong , Shengbao Ji

Through policy innovation, digital empowerment, and business environment optimization, the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area (CECPA) policy plays a crucial role in improving foreign direct investment (FDI) quality. However, empirical evidence on its effects and underlying mechanisms remains limited. Using 2009–2021 panel data for 257 Chinese cities, this study applies a multiperiod difference-in-differences model to assess the CECPA policy's impact on FDI quality. The results show that the policy significantly enhances FDI quality, and the findings remain robust across tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that CECPA improves FDI quality by strengthening digital industry agglomeration, technological innovation, and value-added tax reduction. Heterogeneity tests reveal stronger effects in non-core and non-resource-based cities, as well as in cities with higher human capital and more advanced digital infrastructure. Additional analysis shows that the CECPA policy contributes to economic growth by improving FDI quality. Overall, this study offers practical insights for regions seeking to leverage the CECPA policy to enhance FDI quality and stimulate economic development.

跨境电子商务综合试验区政策通过政策创新、数字化赋能和营商环境优化，对提高外商直接投资质量起到了至关重要的作用。然而，关于其影响和潜在机制的经验证据仍然有限。本研究利用2009-2021年中国257个城市的面板数据，采用多期差中差模型来评估CECPA政策对FDI质量的影响。结果表明，该政策显著提高了外商直接投资质量，并且在各测试中结果仍然稳健。机制分析表明，粤港澳经济合作区通过加强数字产业集聚、技术创新和降低增值税来提升FDI质量。异质性检验显示，在非核心和非资源型城市，以及人力资本较高和数字基础设施较先进的城市，这种效应更强。进一步分析表明，CECPA政策通过提高FDI质量促进经济增长。总体而言，本研究为寻求利用CECPA政策提高FDI质量和刺激经济发展的地区提供了实践见解。

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引用次数: 0

Big reforms, big returns? Evidence from structural reform shocks 大改革，大回报？结构性改革冲击的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107484

Alessio Terzi , Marco Pasquale Marrazzo

Following a series of disappointing outcomes in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, traditional structural reform shocks, of the type advocated under the ‘Washington Consensus’, came to be widely viewed as unsuccessful. This paper revisits that conclusion by applying a novel generalised use of the non-parametric Synthetic Control Method with multiple treated units to estimate the impact of 23 policy reform shocks (spanning both real and financial sector measures) implemented globally between 1961 and 2000. Our results suggest that, notwithstanding a muted short-term impact, wide-reaching reforms on average raised GDP per capita by around 6 percentage points over a decade. These findings are robust across alternative specifications, placebo and falsification tests, and different reform indicators. While outcomes were heterogeneous, the results indicate that broad liberalising reforms have more often than not delivered medium-term growth improvements, underscoring the importance of understanding the conditions under which they succeed.

在拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲出现了一系列令人失望的结果之后，人们普遍认为“华盛顿共识”所倡导的传统结构性改革冲击是不成功的。本文通过应用非参数综合控制方法的一种新的通用方法和多个处理单元来估计1961年至2000年间全球实施的23次政策改革冲击（包括实体和金融部门措施）的影响，重新审视了这一结论。我们的研究结果表明，尽管短期影响不大，但广泛的改革在十年内平均将人均GDP提高了约6个百分点。这些发现在替代规格、安慰剂和伪造检验以及不同的改革指标中都是稳健的。尽管结果各不相同，但结果表明，广泛的自由化改革往往会带来中期增长改善，这突显了了解改革成功的条件的重要性。

引用次数: 0

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