Economic Modelling最新文献

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How population aging and digital transformation reshape labor income share? Mechanisms of firm-level substitution and urban job expansion 人口老龄化和数字化转型如何重塑劳动收入份额？企业层面替代与城镇就业扩张机制

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107517

Qing Guo , Xiangquan Zeng , Lulu Yuan

The impact of population aging and digital transformation on the labor income share remains insufficiently understood. Prior research typically examines these forces separately, leaving uncertain how their interaction shapes factor income distribution. This study jointly investigates the effects of aging and digitalization using firm- and city-level data from China (2010–2020) combined with monthly recruitment-platform data to identify the causal impact of demographic shifts and technological change. At the firm level, population aging amplifies the labor-substituting effect of digital adoption, raising capital intensity while reducing labor income share. At the city level, aging strengthens the job-creating effects of digitalization, expanding platform jobs and self-employment that increase labor income share. By revealing these opposing mechanisms—capital substitution versus platform job creation—our findings advance understanding of how demographic and technological forces interact and suggest policies that promote retraining, inclusive digitalization, and flexible labor reforms.

人口老龄化和数字化转型对劳动收入占比的影响仍未得到充分认识。先前的研究通常分别考察这些力量，不确定它们的相互作用如何影响要素收入分配。本研究利用2010-2020年中国企业和城市层面的数据，结合每月招聘平台数据，联合调查了老龄化和数字化的影响，以确定人口变化和技术变革的因果影响。在企业层面，人口老龄化放大了数字化采用的劳动力替代效应，提高了资本密集度，同时降低了劳动收入份额。在城市层面，老龄化强化了数字化的就业创造效应，扩大了平台就业和自主创业，提高了劳动收入份额。通过揭示这些对立的机制——资本替代与平台创造就业——我们的研究结果促进了对人口和技术力量如何相互作用的理解，并提出了促进再培训、包容性数字化和灵活劳动力改革的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

How poverty alleviation improved girls’ school completion in rural China? The role of health 扶贫如何提高中国农村女童的学业完成率？健康的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107515

Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Chao Ma , Yang Ming

This paper examines how China's 8-7 Plan, a large-scale national poverty alleviation program, influenced educational attainment among rural girls. Using nationally representative household panel data and a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the policy significantly increased completion rates for primary and middle school, with the largest gains among girls from relatively better-off poor households. In contrast, high school completion declined, likely due to intra-household resource reallocation under persistent gender norms. Our mechanism analysis reveals that these gains were not driven by direct education spending or household income growth, but by improvements in child health and nutrition. These health improvements were facilitated by better access to clean water, improved sanitation, and greater household food production. This study highlights the importance of health based channels in shaping human capital and contributes new evidence on how poverty reduction programs can enhance educational outcomes through complementary non-educational investments.

本文考察了中国大规模的国家扶贫计划“8-7计划”对农村女童受教育程度的影响。利用具有全国代表性的家庭面板数据和差异中的差异框架，我们发现该政策显著提高了小学和中学的完成率，其中相对较富裕的贫困家庭的女孩获得的收益最大。相比之下，高中毕业率下降，可能是由于持续的性别规范下的家庭内部资源重新分配。我们的机制分析表明，这些收益不是由直接的教育支出或家庭收入增长推动的，而是由儿童健康和营养的改善推动的。这些健康状况的改善得益于清洁用水的改善、卫生条件的改善和家庭粮食生产的增加。本研究强调了以卫生为基础的渠道在形成人力资本方面的重要性，并为减贫方案如何通过补充性的非教育投资提高教育成果提供了新的证据。

引用次数: 0

Bridging divides with data: Open government data and ESG rating divergence 用数据弥合分歧：政府公开数据与ESG评级分歧

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107491

Ximeng Liu, Fengzheng Wang, Youtao Xiang

Fully unleashing the informational value of public data to mitigate ESG rating divergence has become a crucial driver for motivating corporate engagement in sustainable development. Grounded in cognitive consistency theory, the study explores the effects and mechanisms through which open government data influences ESG divergence. The results demonstrate that open government data significantly reduces ESG rating divergence. Through mechanism analysis, we clarify that enhanced corporate information transparency and strengthened information credibility serve as fundamental channels through which open government data alleviates ESG rating divergence. Heterogeneity tests indicate the influence of open government data on ESG divergence is more pronounced under superior innovation conditions, advanced digital transformation, and smaller firm size. This research contributes to reducing ESG rating divergence, guiding corporate participation in ESG practices, and ultimately advancing sustainable development.

充分释放公共数据的信息价值，以缓解ESG评级差异，已成为激励企业参与可持续发展的关键动力。本研究以认知一致性理论为基础，探讨政府公开数据对ESG差异的影响及其机制。结果表明，政府数据开放显著降低了ESG评级差异。通过机制分析，明确提高企业信息透明度和增强信息可信度是政府数据公开缓解ESG评级分化的根本渠道。异质性检验表明，在创新条件优越、数字化转型超前、企业规模较小的情况下，政府开放数据对企业ESG差异的影响更为显著。本研究有助于减少ESG评级差异，指导企业参与ESG实践，最终促进可持续发展。

引用次数: 0

How do free trade agreements affect firms’ export values? Insights into the mechanisms of trade costs and export stability 自由贸易协定如何影响企业的出口价值？贸易成本与出口稳定机制的洞察

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107487

Yunyan Wei , Wen Yue

This study examines the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) on firms' export values, addressing a gap in the literature regarding how trade liberalization within formal institutions affects firm-level export values. Using data from the Chinese Customs database and the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database (2002–2015), we find, first, that FTAs significantly enhance firms' export values by lowering export costs and improving export stability. Second, these effects are particularly pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises, younger firms, and firms facing greater financial constraints. Third, FTAs strengthen the export intensive margins and increase the export quantities. Overall, the findings offer valuable insights for promoting sustained export growth and provide policymakers with evidence to support the promotion of FTAs to enhance trade stability in the face of global challenges.

本研究考察了自由贸易协定（FTAs）对企业出口价值的影响，解决了文献中关于正式制度内贸易自由化如何影响企业层面出口价值的空白。利用中国海关数据库和中国股票市场与会计研究数据库（2002-2015）的数据，我们发现，首先，自由贸易协定通过降低出口成本和提高出口稳定性显著提高了企业的出口价值。其次，这些影响对中小企业、较年轻的企业和面临较大资金约束的企业尤为明显。第三，自由贸易协定增强了出口集约空间，增加了出口数量。总体而言，研究结果为促进持续出口增长提供了有价值的见解，并为政策制定者在面临全球挑战时支持促进自由贸易协定以增强贸易稳定提供了证据。

引用次数: 0

Labour market concentration and posted wages: Evidence on wage-setting power from a large online recruitment platform in China 劳动力市场集中度与公示工资：来自中国某大型在线招聘平台的工资制定力证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107482

Xuan Liu, Xiangquan Zeng

Although labour market concentration has received growing academic attention, evidence from developing countries remains limited. This study examines labour market concentration in China using 2016–2022 data from a large online recruitment platform. The results show that labour market concentration significantly reduces posted wages, with particularly pronounced effects for lower-wage positions. Firms with large labour market shares exhibit greater wage-setting power and post significantly lower wages than other employers. In addition, labour market concentration in platform-based employment exerts a stronger downward effect on posted wages than in standard employment. Overall, the findings provide both theoretical and empirical support for policies aimed at mitigating monopsony power in labour markets.

尽管劳动力市场集中度已受到学术界越来越多的关注，但来自发展中国家的证据仍然有限。本研究利用一家大型在线招聘平台2016-2022年的数据，考察了中国劳动力市场的集中度。结果表明，劳动力市场集中度显著降低了公布的工资，对低工资岗位的影响尤为明显。拥有较大劳动力市场份额的公司表现出更大的工资设定权力，并且发布的工资明显低于其他雇主。此外，与标准就业相比，平台就业的劳动力市场集中度对公布工资的下降作用更强。总体而言，研究结果为旨在减轻劳动力市场垄断力量的政策提供了理论和实证支持。

引用次数: 0

A Bayesian synthetic control method via horseshoe priors 基于马蹄形先验的贝叶斯综合控制方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107502

Xiaohua Ma , Qibing Gao , Jun Wang , Mingquan Wang , Chunhua Zhu

This paper provides a novel Bayesian synthetic control method (BSCM) that integrates a horseshoe prior (H-BSCM) with a panel interactive fixed effects model for policy evaluation involving multiple treated units and staggered treatment timing. Counterfactual posterior distributions are constructed within a Bayesian panel interactive fixed effects framework, with horseshoe priors added to address sparsity in panel data. The new H-BSCM naturally quantifies heterogeneous policy effects while enabling effective variable selection. We further discuss an extension that incorporates hierarchical group structures. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that H-BSCM outperforms existing methods in uncertainty estimation and signal identification. Additional empirical applications across different fields confirm the method’s adaptability. An application to China’s Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading Pilot Scheme indicates that the policy significantly reduced industrial

{SO}_{2}

emissions, with effects that vary across regions and over time. Overall, the results highlight the effectiveness and practical applicability of the proposed methodology for policy evaluation.

本文提出了一种新的贝叶斯综合控制方法（BSCM），该方法将马蹄先验（H-BSCM）与面板交互固定效应模型相结合，用于涉及多个处理单元和交错处理时间的政策评估。反事实后验分布在贝叶斯面板交互固定效应框架内构建，并添加马蹄形先验以解决面板数据的稀疏性。新的H-BSCM自然地量化了异质性政策效应，同时实现了有效的变量选择。我们将进一步讨论一个包含分层组结构的扩展。蒙特卡罗仿真表明，H-BSCM在不确定性估计和信号识别方面优于现有方法。在不同领域的额外经验应用证实了该方法的适应性。对中国二氧化硫排放交易试点计划的应用表明，该政策显著减少了工业二氧化硫排放，其效果因地区和时间而异。总体而言，结果突出了所提出的政策评估方法的有效性和实际适用性。

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引用次数: 0

Digital supply chains and firm market performance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 数字供应链与企业市场绩效：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107490

Feng Yun , Jinyu Chen , Shuzhen Liang , Mingxun Liu

In response to global supply chain restructuring in recent years, China has committed to promoting firm supply chain upgrades through digital technologies. In this paper, we employ China’s Supply Chain Innovation and Application policy (SCIA) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how supply chain reform affects firms’ market performance. Analyzing data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2014–2022) through a difference-in-difference model, we find that: (1) supply chain reform significantly enhances firms’ operating income and product market performance; (2) the positive impact is more pronounced in firms with higher upstreamness, lower customer stability, those operating in non-high-tech manufacturing sectors, and those with lower initial digitalization levels; (3) the efficacy of supply chain reform operates through two primary mechanisms: optimization of internal resource allocation and reduction of external transaction costs; (4) such reform increases firms’ openness and improve overall performance. Our findings offer valuable policy implications for developing countries and transition economies seeking to modernize their supply chains and accelerate economic transformation in an increasingly digitalized global marketplace.

近年来，为应对全球供应链结构调整，中国致力于通过数字技术推动企业供应链升级。本文以中国供应链创新与应用政策（SCIA）为准自然实验，考察供应链改革对企业市场绩效的影响。通过对2014-2022年中国a股上市公司数据的差异模型分析，我们发现：(1)供应链改革显著提高了企业的营业收入和产品市场绩效；(2)上游性较高、客户稳定性较低、非高科技制造业企业和初始数字化水平较低的企业对数字化的正向影响更为显著；(3)供应链改革的有效性主要通过优化内部资源配置和降低外部交易成本两种机制发挥作用；(4)提高企业开放度，提高企业整体绩效。我们的研究结果为寻求在日益数字化的全球市场中实现供应链现代化和加速经济转型的发展中国家和转型经济体提供了宝贵的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Traditional clans and modern corporate ESG: Evidence from China 传统宗族与现代企业ESG：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107520

Qiucen Ma , Zhiyuan Chen , Congming Ding

This study examines how China's traditional clans affect the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance of modern firms. Employing prefecture-level genealogical data and data on A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2022, we find that firms located in regions with strong clan influence tend to exhibit superior ESG performance, particularly in the environmental dimension. This effect is primarily driven by the cultural influence and organizational functions of clans. We also demonstrate that the influence of clans is more significant for firms and regions where formal regulatory oversight is weaker. Our research contributes to the literature by introducing an informal institutional perspective on the determinants of ESG performance.

本研究考察了中国传统宗族如何影响现代企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效。利用地级市家谱数据和2009 - 2022年a股上市公司数据，我们发现位于家族影响力强地区的公司往往表现出更优异的ESG绩效，尤其是在环境维度。这种影响主要是由氏族的文化影响和组织功能驱动的。我们还证明，宗族的影响对于正规监管较弱的公司和地区更为显著。我们的研究通过引入非正式的制度视角来研究ESG绩效的决定因素，从而为文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

Quantifying potential gains from efficient resource reallocation: A counterfactual analysis of economic growth in 284 Chinese cities 有效资源再配置的潜在收益量化：中国284个城市经济增长的反事实分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107501

Sheng Dai , Timo Kuosmanen , Zhiqiang Liao

This study examines how efficient resource reallocation across cities affects potential aggregate growth, addressing the limited empirical evidence on output gains from reallocation under realistic constraints. Using data on 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, we simulate counterfactual scenarios in which existing aggregate resources are reallocated across cities to quantify the costs of resource misallocation. We find that a nationwide efficient allocation can raise aggregate output by more than 30 percent, with further gains arising from adjustments to administrative divisions. While local reallocation also generates output gains, its effects are relatively modest compared with nationwide reallocation. Even when incorporating geographic constraints, urban development strategies, and restrictions on factor mobility, substantial potential gains remain. These results suggest that reducing resource misallocation can unlock significant untapped growth potential. The findings carry important policy implications for improving allocation efficiency in China and offer broader insights into the links between urban structure, regional integration, and long-run economic growth.

本研究考察了城市间有效的资源再配置如何影响潜在的总增长，解决了在现实约束下再配置产出收益的有限经验证据。利用2003 - 2019年中国284个地级市的数据，我们模拟了现有总资源在城市间重新配置的反事实情景，以量化资源错配的成本。我们发现，全国范围内的有效配置可以使总产出提高30%以上，而行政区划的调整还会带来进一步的收益。虽然局部再分配也会产生产出收益，但与全国再分配相比，其影响相对较小。即使考虑到地理限制、城市发展战略和对要素流动的限制，仍然存在巨大的潜在收益。这些结果表明，减少资源错配可以释放大量未开发的增长潜力。研究结果对提高中国的分配效率具有重要的政策意义，并对城市结构、区域一体化和长期经济增长之间的联系提供了更广泛的见解。

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How perceived uncertainty shapes corporate resilience: Evidence from China 感知不确定性如何塑造企业弹性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107514

Chengming Huang , Sultan Sikandar Mirza , Chengwei Zhang

This study examines how firms respond to shifts in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) by analyzing its impact on firm resilience. Using data from 2660 Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that higher firm-perceived policy uncertainty (FEPU) significantly weakens firm resilience. Drawing on real options and growth options perspectives, the results show that firms become less adaptable when uncertainty leads managers to behave more cautiously and when operational decisions—such as cash reserves and R&D spending—are distorted. Social media pressure, however, softens this negative effect by encouraging greater transparency and discipline. The findings also reveal substantial differences across ownership types, financial conditions, and industry characteristics. The study provides practical insights for managers and policymakers seeking to strengthen organizational resilience in uncertain environments and highlights the need to design governance and communication strategies that help firms remain adaptive when policy risks rise.

本研究通过分析经济政策不确定性（EPU）对企业弹性的影响，探讨企业如何应对经济政策不确定性的变化。利用2010 - 2022年2660家中国a股上市公司的数据，我们发现较高的企业感知政策不确定性（FEPU）显著削弱了企业的弹性。从实物期权和增长期权的角度来看，研究结果表明，当不确定性导致管理者行为更加谨慎，当运营决策（如现金储备和研发支出）被扭曲时，企业的适应性会降低。然而，社交媒体的压力通过鼓励更大的透明度和纪律来缓和这种负面影响。研究结果还揭示了所有权类型、财务状况和行业特征之间的巨大差异。该研究为寻求在不确定环境中加强组织弹性的管理者和政策制定者提供了实用的见解，并强调了设计治理和沟通策略的必要性，以帮助企业在政策风险上升时保持适应性。

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