Economic Modelling最新文献

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Immigration from a terror-prone nation: Destination nation's optimal immigration and counterterrorism policies

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106972

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay , Khusrav Gaibulloev , Todd Sandler

The article presents a two-country model in which a destination country chooses its immigration quota and proactive counterterrorism measures in response to immigration from a terror-plagued country. A novel feature is to tie the optimizing quota and proactive choice to the consequences on the labor market. After the destination country fixes its two policies, immigrants decide between supplying labor or conducting terrorist attacks, which helps to determine equilibrium labor supply and wages. The analysis accounts for the marginal disutility of lost rights/freedoms stemming from stricter counterterror measures as well as the inherent radicalization of migrants. Comparative statics involve changes to those two parameters. For example, an enhanced importance attached to lost rights is shown to limit immigration quotas and counterterrorism actions. In contrast, increased source-country radicalization reduces immigration quotas but has an ambiguous effect on optimal proactive measures. Extensions involve defensive policies and destination-country citizens’ radicalization.

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引用次数: 0

Estimation and forecast of carbon emission market volatility based on model averaging method

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106976

Nianling Wang , Qianchao Wang , Yong Li

Understanding volatility is essential for risk management and green investment decision-making in the carbon market. However, existing studies lack a unified framework for modeling and estimating carbon market volatility, and predictions are often affected by model uncertainty. Using data from EU emission allowances, we estimate parameters for multiple GARCH models via the Sequential Monte Carlo method and improve forecasting accuracy with model averaging techniques. Our results reveal that carbon market volatility is characterized by spikes, thick tails, asymmetry, and jumps. Based on Model Confidence Set test, model comparison demonstrates that averaged models consistently outperform individual models across various loss criteria. By integrating information from multiple models, the model averaging approach simplifies model selection and plays a pivotal role in supporting volatility timing strategies.

引用次数: 0

Modeling and evaluating the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 on US unemployment

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106978

Malak Kandoussi , François Langot

During the COVID-19 lockdown, the labor market faced unprecedented disruptions, particularly in unemployment, job separation, and the job finding rate. These unprecedented economic disruptions challenge existing models for understanding and assessing government interventions. This paper shows that a general equilibrium model with matching frictions may explain the impact of this crisis on US unemployment, while accounting for the contrasted impacts across various job types. This model is calibrated on the subprime-crisis experience and then used to identify the job-specific lockdown shocks, allowing it to predict the observed worker flows by diploma. The unemployment persistence is lowered by the CARES Act, which acted as a damping mechanism against its sharp increase by slowing down the separation dynamics and increasing the rate of hirings.

引用次数: 0

Research bubbles

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106888

Hans Gersbach , Evgenij Komarov

We develop a model to rationalize and examine so-called “research bubbles”, i.e. research activities based on overoptimistic beliefs about the impact of this research on the economy. Research bubbles occur when researchers self-select into research activities and the government aggregates the assessment of active researchers on how advances in research may spur innovation and growth. In an overlapping generations framework, we study the occurrence of research bubbles and show that they tend to be welfare-improving. Particular forms can even implement the socially optimal solution. However, research bubbles can collapse, and we discuss institutional devices and the role of debt financing that can ensure the sustainability of such bubbles. Finally, we demonstrate that research bubbles emerge in various extensions of our baseline model.

引用次数: 0

Deviation signs-based bunching methods

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106969

Xiaofeng Lv , Yifan Yang , Yue Lu , Liming Hong

Bunching caused by discontinuous policy has received increased research attention over the last decade. In practice, buncher adjustment costs frequently result in bunching in an unknown region rather than at a specific point (e.g., a kink or notch). To investigate this phenomenon, researchers often rely on visual determination or regional knowledge, the selection of estimated regions, the choice of k in k-fold cross-validation, and the assumption of a conditional lognormal distribution. This study introduces deviation sign-based bunching methods for kink and notch settings with frictions, eliminating the need for these prerequisites. Using conservative non-bunching regions and deviation sign-based indicators, we can calculate the data-driven bunching region and counterfactual distribution. Subsequently, the elasticity of taxable income, a key parameter in bunching research, can be estimated. Simulations validate the efficacy of our methods. The elasticity of Chinese small and micro enterprises is calculated to be 1.267.

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneity in the effect of green financing constraints on labor investment efficiency: A causal forest approach

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106977

Tingwen Liu , Jie Liu , Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng

This study evaluates the heterogeneous effects of green credit policy on labor investment efficiency. We analyze Chinese listed firms from 2005 to 2020 using the difference-in-differences method and causal forest approach based on the introduction of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines. Our results show that this policy improves labor investment efficiency in high-polluting firms by reducing over-investment. Causal forest analyses reveal nonlinear and heterogeneous treatment effects, indicating that firms with lower market capitalization, lower liquidity, and higher leverage experience efficiency declines due to financial constraints. Faced with severe agency problems, state-owned enterprises and firms with high employment variability and abnormal investment achieve significant efficiency gains. Finally, despite lower innovation among high-polluting firms following policy implementation, the increased labor investment efficiency mitigates this impact. Overall, the heterogeneity analysis using causal forests highlights the groups most significantly affected by the policy.

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引用次数: 0

LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106946

Maryam Mirfatah , Vasco J. Gabriel , Paul Levine

We develop a small open economy model interacting with a rest-of-the-world bloc, containing relevant emerging economies’ features: heterogeneous agents with one household type displaying limited asset markets participation (LAMP), and an informal sector. We show that monetary growth rules are stable regardless of the level of asset market participation, i.e., unlike standard interest rate rules, they avoid the inversion of the Taylor principle. Estimation results using data from Mexico reveal that specifications with money growth rules are empirically superior and shocks are amplified by the presence of LAMP. In contrast, the informal sector acts as a buffer, lowering the variability of aggregate and formal fluctuations through an expenditure switching effect, and by providing a flexible labour market adjustment mechanism.

引用次数: 0

Manager sentiment and its effect on corporate innovation

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106968

Xun Xiong , Long Zhao

Identifying the factors that predict managers’ commitment to innovation is crucial for understanding firm growth and competitiveness. However, the impact of the textual tone in financial reports on corporate innovation is relatively understudied. This study investigates whether manager sentiment, captured through the textual tone in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of annual financial statements, helps predict firm innovation. Using data from China’s listed firms during 2003–2017, we provide robust evidence that manager sentiment is positively associated with corporate innovation, particularly for firms with low growth, low liquidity, low profitability, high distress, and state-owned enterprises. Our analysis shows that this relationship operates through increased institutional ownership, reduced capital costs, and improved access to external financing. These findings highlight the value of MD&A textual tone as a tool for stakeholders to assess a firm’s future innovation potential and competitiveness.

引用次数: 0

Reevaluating the impact of FDI on industrial pollution: New evidence from microdata

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106975

Kaihua Deng , Qizhen Liu

We revisit the debate on the environmental impact of FDI by leveraging two comprehensive firm-level datasets and address identification issues via an instrumental variable difference-in-differences approach upon China's accession to the World Trade Organization. We examine two under-explored factors in the literature by showing that a higher FDI share in the industrial output significantly decreases firm pollution intensity beyond the effect of productivity gains and stricter environmental regulations. The impact of FDI varies across pollutants, which we relate to policy priorities. Consistent with the technology spillover mechanism, we show that the effect is more pronounced for firms in high-competition industries, exposed to higher local FDI inflows, with higher absorptive capacities, and works through both domestic and foreign-invested firms. The pollution-intensive industries have made more environmental progress. Our findings suggest a more nuanced role of FDI in pollution prevention and offer new insights for policy makers.

引用次数: 0

The impact of student's ordinal cognitive ability rank on school violence: Evidence from China

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106967

Liping Chen , Jiada Lin , Zhifeng Wang , Guansheng Wu

School violence can exert immediate and enduring effects on the human capital development of students. Despite extensive discussions on the causes of school violence, the role of peer effects has been underexplored in the literature. To fill this gap, this paper examines the effect of cognitive ability rankings on students' propensity for committing school violence. We select schools that randomly assign students to classes to mitigate selection biases and identify the causal effects. Our findings show that improving a student's rank from the lowest to the highest reduces school violence by 0.5 standard deviations. A mechanism is the higher opportunity cost for students with a high cognitive ability rank. We also find that high-ranking students are more likely to stay with high-quality peers.

引用次数: 0

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