Economic Modelling最新文献

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IPR protection and markup in China: Balancing innovation incentives and markup distortions 中国的知识产权保护与加价：平衡创新激励与加价扭曲

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488

Lihao Wang , Jiwen Chai , Song Nie , Shangrong Han

In the context of rising markups worldwide, this study examines the role of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in influencing firm-level markups and the mechanisms underlying this effect. Theoretically, we show that stronger IPR protection enhances firms’ innovation incentives, thereby increasing their pricing power. Empirically, using a quasinatural experiment and firm-level data from Chinese A-share-listed companies (2001–2020), we find that more robust IPR policies significantly increase patenting, citations and intangible assets—evidence of enhanced innovation. These policies also lead to higher markups, indicating increased market power. The effects are greater among high-tech and large firms. Results remain robust to a range of sensitivity checks and endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a key trade-off: while IPR reforms promote innovation, they may also distort competition through markup inflation. Therefore, policymakers should balance innovation incentives with measures to preserve market contestability, particularly in the increasingly intangible economy.

在全球加价上升的背景下，本研究探讨了知识产权保护在影响企业加价方面的作用以及这种影响的机制。从理论上讲，我们证明了知识产权保护的加强增强了企业的创新激励，从而提高了企业的定价能力。通过准自然实验和2001-2020年中国a股上市公司的企业层面数据，我们发现，更强有力的知识产权政策显著增加了专利申请、引用和无形资产——这是创新增强的证据。这些政策还导致了更高的加价，表明市场力量的增强。这种影响在高科技和大型企业中更为明显。结果对一系列敏感性检查和内生性问题保持稳健。我们的研究结果揭示了一个关键的权衡：知识产权改革在促进创新的同时，也可能通过加价通胀扭曲竞争。因此，政策制定者应该平衡创新激励与保持市场竞争力的措施，特别是在日益增长的无形经济中。

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引用次数: 0

Vying for support: Lobbying a legislator with uncertain preferences 争取支持：游说一位不确定偏好的议员

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489

Anne Marie Go , Nikolaos Kokonas , Javier Rivas

We construct a model in which two opposing lobbyists bid for the support of a legislator with an uncertain bias toward either lobbyist. Notably, high bias uncertainty yields lobbyists offering low bids. In contrast, low bias uncertainty makes lobbyists bid aggressively. Finally, for moderate bias uncertainty, we find a nonmonotonic relationship between the legislator’s bias uncertainty and the lobbyists’ bids.

我们构建了一个模型，在这个模型中，两个对立的游说者争取一个立法者的支持，而立法者对其中任何一个游说者都有不确定的偏见。值得注意的是，高偏见不确定性导致游说者出价较低。相比之下，低偏见的不确定性使游说者积极竞标。最后，对于中等偏倚不确定性，我们发现立法者的偏倚不确定性与游说者的出价之间存在非单调关系。

引用次数: 0

Labour market concentration and posted wages: Evidence on wage-setting power from a large online recruitment platform in China 劳动力市场集中度与公示工资：来自中国某大型在线招聘平台的工资制定力证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107482

Xuan Liu, Xiangquan Zeng

Although labour market concentration has received growing academic attention, evidence from developing countries remains limited. This study examines labour market concentration in China using 2016–2022 data from a large online recruitment platform. The results show that labour market concentration significantly reduces posted wages, with particularly pronounced effects for lower-wage positions. Firms with large labour market shares exhibit greater wage-setting power and post significantly lower wages than other employers. In addition, labour market concentration in platform-based employment exerts a stronger downward effect on posted wages than in standard employment. Overall, the findings provide both theoretical and empirical support for policies aimed at mitigating monopsony power in labour markets.

尽管劳动力市场集中度已受到学术界越来越多的关注，但来自发展中国家的证据仍然有限。本研究利用一家大型在线招聘平台2016-2022年的数据，考察了中国劳动力市场的集中度。结果表明，劳动力市场集中度显著降低了公布的工资，对低工资岗位的影响尤为明显。拥有较大劳动力市场份额的公司表现出更大的工资设定权力，并且发布的工资明显低于其他雇主。此外，与标准就业相比，平台就业的劳动力市场集中度对公布工资的下降作用更强。总体而言，研究结果为旨在减轻劳动力市场垄断力量的政策提供了理论和实证支持。

引用次数: 0

Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China 贸易自由化带来的不均衡利益：关税壁垒与中国劳动力迁移

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483

Jiang Wang, Zhenhua Ji, Kai Liu

This study examines how tariff barriers shape internal labor migration in China. While existing literature widely documents trade-induced disparities, less attention studies its impact on worker migrants. We introduce a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanisms and empirically test the predictions using 2000–2015 route-level variations. Foreign tariff reductions bolster regional exports through increased firm entry, survival of lower-productivity firms, export volume expansion, and enhanced export propensity, collectively driving wage growth and migration inflows. Conversely, import tariff cuts precipitate domestic market contraction through reduced settled-firm counts and market exit of lower-productivity producers, suppressing wages and triggering labor outflows. These findings shed new light on labor-migration responses to uneven trade benefits, offering policy insights for mitigating spatial inequality.

本研究探讨关税壁垒如何影响中国内部劳动力迁移。虽然现有文献广泛地记录了贸易引起的差异，但很少有人关注其对工人流动的影响。我们引入了一个理论框架来证明机制，并使用2000-2015年的路线水平变化对预测进行了实证检验。外国关税的降低通过增加企业进入、低生产率企业的生存、出口量的扩大和出口倾向的增强来促进区域出口，共同推动工资增长和移民流入。相反，进口关税的削减通过减少定居企业数量和低生产率生产商的市场退出，导致国内市场收缩，从而抑制工资并引发劳动力外流。这些发现揭示了劳动力迁移对贸易利益不平衡的反应，为缓解空间不平等提供了政策见解。

引用次数: 0

Green finance and bird diversity: Evidence from China 绿色金融与鸟类多样性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107478

Xiaohong Huang , Yizhen Wang , Qianru Huang

We explore the impact of China's pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation (PZGFRI) policy on bird diversity. Based on citizen science data in China from 2015 to 2023, we find that the implementation of China's PZGFRI policy has increased the bird species richness and bird abundance. The results remain valid after a series of robustness tests, including controls for spatial autocorrelation, sample selection bias, instrumental variable test and so forth. Furthermore, mechanism tests indicate that green finance drives biodiversity by protecting habitat, reducing air pollutant emissions, and promoting green innovation. Overall, this study provides an important basis for boosting biodiversity through green finance channels.

我们探讨了中国绿色金融改革创新试验区政策对鸟类多样性的影响。基于2015 - 2023年中国公民科学数据，我们发现中国PZGFRI政策的实施增加了鸟类物种丰富度和鸟类丰度。经过一系列的稳健性检验，包括空间自相关控制、样本选择偏差、工具变量检验等，结果仍然有效。此外，机制测试表明，绿色金融通过保护栖息地、减少大气污染物排放和促进绿色创新来推动生物多样性。总体而言，本研究为通过绿色金融渠道促进生物多样性提供了重要依据。

引用次数: 0

Technological peer pressure and inventor mobility: Evidence from China 技术同侪压力与发明者流动：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485

Geng Chen, Yikai Han

This paper investigates the relationship between Technological Peer Pressure (TPP) and inventor mobility. Using data on 398,734 inventors from 3078 Chinese listed firms over 2007–2021, we find that TPP significantly increases the likelihood of inventor mobility. This conclusion passes a series of robustness tests and mitigates endogeneity issues via the IV-2SLS and PSM-DID models. We identify three mechanisms driving this effect: heightened corporate earnings pressure, increased innovation bubbles, and diminished collaborative culture. This positive TPP-mobility link is weaker for inventors with more co-inventors or star inventors, for firms with more R&D alliances or less myopic management. Overall, our results highlight TPP's critical role in shaping inventor mobility, offering insights for firms to respond to technological competition in the product market.

本文研究了技术同伴压力（TPP）与发明者流动之间的关系。利用2007-2021年3078家中国上市公司398,734名发明人的数据，我们发现TPP显著提高了发明人流动的可能性。这一结论通过了一系列稳健性测试，并通过IV-2SLS和PSM-DID模型缓解了内生性问题。我们确定了驱动这种效应的三种机制：企业盈利压力增加、创新泡沫增加和合作文化减少。对于拥有更多共同发明者或明星发明者的发明者，对于拥有更多研发联盟或较少短视管理的公司来说，这种积极的tpp -流动性联系较弱。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了TPP在塑造发明者流动性方面的关键作用，为企业应对产品市场中的技术竞争提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

The environmental administrative penalties and firm digital transformation: A reexamination of Porter Hypothesis 环境行政处罚与企业数字化转型：对波特假设的重新审视

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107481

Youzhi Xiao , Xin Liu

As rapid development of digital technologies, whether the Porter Hypothesis of environmental regulations satisfies, especially the strong version of the Porter Hypothesis, under the situations of the digital economy is a key issue to be considered. By utilizing the environmental administrative penalties (EAP) and the data from listed firms in China from 2010 to 2022, we find EAP significantly inhibit firm digital transformation, indicating the strong version of Porter Hypothesis does not satisfy. The plausible channels show the EAP dose not encourage the firms to conduct digital innovation. Moreover, we find the EAP promote firms investing in pro-environmental projects, make the firms pay more attention to the environmental issues, make the firms pay more attention to short-term interest and reduce the acquisition of external resources. Our results provide a new understanding of Porter Hypothesis and suggest that the digital technologies should be attached more importance to environmental sustainability.

随着数字技术的飞速发展，环境规制的波特假设，特别是强版本的波特假设，在数字经济条件下是否得到满足，是一个需要考虑的关键问题。利用环境行政处罚（EAP）和2010 - 2022年中国上市公司的数据，我们发现环境行政处罚显著抑制了企业的数字化转型，表明强版本的波特假设不成立。合理的渠道表明EAP并没有鼓励企业进行数字创新。此外，我们发现EAP促进了企业对亲环境项目的投资，使企业更加关注环境问题，使企业更加关注短期利益，减少了外部资源的获取。我们的研究结果为波特假设提供了新的理解，并建议数字技术应更加重视环境的可持续性。

引用次数: 0

Tax evasion and the productivity distribution 偷税漏税与生产力分配

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107480

Francesco Menoncin , Andrea Modena , Luca Regis

We develop a heterogeneous-firm macroeconomic model to investigate how tax evasion affects the productivity distribution in general equilibrium. In our model, entrepreneurs choose capital and labor to produce with their firms, invest in bonds, and evade taxes to maximize their intertemporal utility, derived from dividends. Firms face leverage constraints and uninsurable productivity shocks. The results reveal that tax evasion redistributes capital toward low-productivity firms, relaxing their leverage constraints. It also increases public debt, raising the cost of capital and crowding out firms at the margin. As a result of these forces, we demonstrate that (i) the decline in high-productivity firms’ average productivity drives the negative correlation between the size of the shadow economy and aggregate productivity, and (ii) the productivity gains from reduced tax evasion are smaller in economies with higher public debt and stricter leverage constraints.

我们建立了一个异质性企业宏观经济模型来研究偷税漏税如何影响一般均衡下的生产率分配。在我们的模型中，企业家选择资本和劳动力与他们的公司一起生产，投资债券，逃税，以最大化他们的跨期效用，来自股息。企业面临杠杆约束和无法保证的生产率冲击。结果表明，偷税漏税使资本向低生产率企业进行了再分配，降低了企业的杠杆约束。它还增加了公共债务，提高了资金成本，并在边际挤占了企业。作为这些力量的结果，我们证明了(i)高生产率企业平均生产率的下降推动了影子经济规模与总生产率之间的负相关关系，以及（ii）在公共债务较高和杠杆约束更严格的经济体中，减少逃税带来的生产率收益较小。

引用次数: 0

Cost efficiency and gender diversity in microfinance: A stochastic frontier approach 小额信贷的成本效率和性别多样性：一个随机前沿方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473

Moh’d Al-Azzam , David H. Bernstein , Christopher F. Parmeter

Cost efficiency in microfinance reveals whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) can serve the vulnerable sustainably or survive by relying on subsidies or passing inefficiencies to clients. As MFIs strive for sustainability, the role of gender — where women make up the majority of borrowers and more than one-third of MFIs’ employees — remains central to understanding efficiency. Using data from 1507 MFIs in 111 countries (2010–2018), we apply cutting-edge panel stochastic frontier models to assess global efficiency trends and the roles of women as borrowers and employees. We find that global efficiency declined, especially among larger MFIs, despite increasing returns to scale. MFIs that serve more women or hire more loan officers are associated with more inefficiencies. The effect of other women employees varies by role and profit orientation. Women in leadership improve efficiency in nonprofits but reduce it in for-profit MFIs, whereas female staff improve efficiency only in for-profit MFIs. These findings call for more targeted gender strategies to enhance inclusion and sustainability.

小额信贷的成本效率揭示了小额信贷机构（mfi）是否能够持续地为弱势群体服务，或者依靠补贴或将效率低下转嫁给客户来生存。在小额信贷机构努力实现可持续性的同时，性别的作用——妇女占借款人的大多数，占小额信贷机构雇员的三分之一以上——仍然是理解效率的核心。利用来自111个国家1507家小额信贷机构（2010-2018年）的数据，我们应用前沿面板随机前沿模型来评估全球效率趋势以及女性作为借款人和雇员的角色。我们发现，尽管规模收益在增加，但全球效率却在下降，尤其是在规模较大的小额信贷机构中。为更多女性提供服务或雇佣更多贷款人员的小额信贷机构效率更低。其他女性员工的影响因角色和利润取向而异。女性领导提高了非营利组织的效率，但降低了营利性小额信贷机构的效率，而女性员工仅在营利性小额信贷机构中提高了效率。这些发现呼吁制定更有针对性的性别战略，以增强包容性和可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of early pension withdrawals on household finances and inflation 提前提取养老金对家庭财政和通货膨胀的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107475

Jaanika Meriküll

This paper exploits Estonia's 2021 pension reform to examine the impact of a large-scale liquidity shock on household finances and inflation. The reform made the second-pillar pension contributions voluntary and allowed early withdrawals before retirement age. One-fifth of contributors withdrew their pension savings as soon as this option became available. Individual-level data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey are used to reveal the balance-sheet and behavioural characteristics of leavers. Aggregate National Accounts and Distributional Wealth Accounts data, and the synthetic differences-in-differences method are applied to assess how the money withdrawn was spent. The leavers had low liquidity, little experience of investing in risky financial assets, and a large outstanding balance of consumer credit, while their households were present-biased and had a high marginal propensity to consume. This profile fits the aggregate estimates on how the withdrawals were spent. A large part of the withdrawals was accumulated as deposits without being reinvested, a substantial fraction was used to pay back consumer debt, and the rest was spent on consumption. The elevated consumption contributed to a temporary hike in inflation. The paper highlights the short-term implications of pension-asset liquidations; further studies are warranted on the longer-run implications.

本文利用爱沙尼亚2021年的养老金改革来研究大规模流动性冲击对家庭财务和通货膨胀的影响。改革使第二大支柱养老金自愿缴纳，并允许在退休年龄之前提前提取。五分之一的缴款人在这一选择出现后立即取出了他们的养老金储蓄。来自家庭财务和消费调查的个人层面数据被用来揭示离职者的资产负债表和行为特征。综合国民账户和分配财富账户数据，以及综合差异中的差异方法被用于评估提取的资金是如何使用的。离职者流动性低，投资风险金融资产的经验少，消费信贷余额大，而他们的家庭是现在偏向的，有很高的边际消费倾向。这个剖面符合对提款使用情况的总体估计。提款的很大一部分作为存款积累起来，没有进行再投资，相当一部分用于偿还消费者债务，其余的用于消费。消费增加导致通货膨胀暂时上升。本文强调了养老金资产清算的短期影响；有必要对其长期影响进行进一步研究。

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引用次数: 0

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Economic Modelling

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