Journal of Public Economics最新文献

英文中文

The long run effects of a teacher-focused school reform on student outcomes 以教师为中心的学校改革对学生成绩的长期影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105561

Sarah R. Cohodes , Ozkan Eren , Orgul Ozturk

This paper examines the effects of a teacher-focused school reform program — combining performance pay with teacher observation and feedback — implemented in high-need schools on students’ longer-run educational, criminal justice, and economic self-sufficiency outcomes. Using linked administrative data from a Southern state, we leverage the quasi-randomness of the timing of program adoption across schools to show that the school reform improved educational attainment and reduced both felony criminal activity before age 19 and dependence on government assistance in early adulthood (ages 18–22). We find little scope for student sorting or changes in the composition of teacher workforce to explain the findings, and instead find changes in school climate consistent with improved school environments and increased teacher efficiency. Program benefits far exceeded its costs. A comparison with a similar educator-focused reform suggests that the individual incentive component of the program is necessary but not sufficient to improve student outcomes.

本文考察了在高需求学校实施的以教师为中心的学校改革项目——将绩效薪酬与教师观察和反馈相结合——对学生的长期教育、刑事司法和经济自给自足结果的影响。我们利用来自南方一个州的相关行政数据，利用跨学校采用项目时间的准随机性，表明学校改革提高了教育程度，减少了19岁前的重罪犯罪活动，减少了成年早期（18-22岁）对政府援助的依赖。我们发现学生分类或教师队伍组成的变化几乎无法解释这些发现，相反，我们发现学校气候的变化与学校环境的改善和教师效率的提高是一致的。项目收益远远超过成本。与类似的以教育工作者为中心的改革比较表明，该计划的个人激励部分是必要的，但不足以提高学生的成绩。

引用次数: 0

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01

引用次数: 0

A tale of gold and blood: The consequences of market deregulation on local violence 金与血的故事：解除市场管制对地方暴力的影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105559

Leila Pereira , Rafael Pucci

We investigate how deregulating and disabling a decentralized structure for monitoring gold transactions in Brazil ultimately led to an increase in violence related to illegal gold mining. We use a Difference-in-Differences design and a unique database that combines the location of gold deposits and protected areas, where mining is forbidden. We demonstrate that municipalities more exposed to illegal gold mining experienced almost ten additional homicides per 100,000 people - roughly 30 % more - after the deregulation. We also find suggestive evidence of more gold-mining land use inside protected areas in exposed municipalities, which serves as an indicator of illegal mining.

我们调查了巴西监管黄金交易的去中心化结构是如何解除管制并使其失效的，最终导致了与非法金矿开采相关的暴力事件的增加。我们采用了差异中的差异设计和独特的数据库，该数据库结合了金矿的位置和禁止采矿的保护区。我们证明，在放松管制之后，更容易受到非法金矿开采影响的城市，每10万人中发生的凶杀案几乎增加了10起——大约增加了30%。我们还发现，在暴露的城市的保护区内，有更多的金矿土地被使用，这是非法采矿的一个指标。

引用次数: 0

The consequences of wildfire liability for firm precaution: Evidence from power shutoffs in California 野火责任对预防措施的影响：来自加州停电的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105552

Christopher Malloy

This paper examines firm responses to the entire distribution of potential liability by studying power line-ignited fires in California’s electric utility sector. In this setting, when a power line-ignited fire damages a structure, the owner of the power line assumes the cost. The unique setting allows me to estimate how firm precautions vary across the entire distribution of liabilities they face. Using exogenous variation in firms’ expected liabilities from potential fire ignitions across days, I show that, on average, firms are 0.03 percentage points more likely to take costly precautionary actions as the level of expected liability that they face increases by 10 % (mean of 0.6 %). Applying a back of the envelope calculation suggests that, at its mean distribution circuit, the most responsive firm increases precautionary investments by $10 per dollar increase in its expected liability. Furthermore, I show that firms’ precautionary responses weaken as the likelihood of bankruptcy from expected liability increases. Applying the estimates to a stylized model implies that limiting firms’ exposure to liability across their service territory would create aggregate social welfare benefits between $27 million and $270 million.

本文通过研究加州电力公用事业部门的电力线引燃火灾，考察了公司对潜在责任的整个分配的反应。在这种情况下，当电线引起的火灾损坏建筑物时，电线的所有者承担费用。这种独特的环境使我能够估计在他们面临的整个责任分布中，坚定的预防措施是如何变化的。我利用公司因潜在火灾引发的预期负债在几天内的外生变化表明，平均而言，当公司面临的预期负债水平增加10%（平均为0.6%）时，公司采取代价高昂的预防措施的可能性增加0.03个百分点。应用粗略计算表明，在其平均分配电路中，反应最灵敏的公司每增加1美元的预期负债，预防性投资就会增加10美元。此外，我还表明，随着预期负债导致破产的可能性增加，企业的预防性反应会减弱。将这些估计应用于一个程式化的模型意味着，限制公司在其服务区域内承担的责任将创造2700万至2.7亿美元的社会福利总额。

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引用次数: 0

Social influence and carbon dioxide mitigation 社会影响和二氧化碳减排

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105558

Jayant Vivek Ganguli, Friederike Mengel

We investigate the potential of social influence to increase people’s willingness to mitigate their carbon impact. In a large-scale online experiment consisting of two waves of data collection participants are given the choice to spend any share of a 10 GBP endowment on mitigation. If a wave-1 participant is told that their (anonymized) choice will be observed by a wave-2 participant before that participant makes their choice, then the wave-1 participant’s willingness to mitigate (WTM) increases by about

17 %

. This is not the case if their choice is observed by the wave-2 participant after that participant has already made their choice, which demonstrates that it is indeed the possibility of influence and not only observability that matters. Increasing influence at the extensive margin, i.e. increasing the number of wave-2 participants observing the choice, does not increase WTM. We also elicit beliefs and find that most participants overestimate how much influence they have.

我们调查了社会影响的潜力，以增加人们的意愿，以减轻他们的碳影响。在一项由两波数据收集组成的大规模在线实验中，参与者可以选择将10英镑捐赠中的任何一部分用于缓解。如果第一波参与者在第二波参与者做出选择之前被告知他们的（匿名的）选择将被第二波参与者观察，那么第一波参与者的缓和意愿（WTM）将增加约17%。如果他们的选择是在波2参与者已经做出选择之后才被观察到，情况就不是这样了，这表明影响的可能性确实是重要的，而不仅仅是可观察性。扩大影响范围，即增加观察选择的波2参与者的数量，不会增加WTM。我们还引出了信念，发现大多数参与者高估了他们的影响力。

引用次数: 0

Estimating the welfare cost of labor supply frictions 劳动力供给摩擦的福利成本估算

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105556

Katy Bergstrom, William Dodds, Nicholas Lacoste, Juan Rios

This paper quantifies how much people would be willing to pay to remove frictions that impede them from working their ideal number of hours using two sufficient statistics: (1) the percentage difference between ideal (i.e., frictionless) hours and actual hours, and (2) the Hicksian elasticity of ideal hours with respect to the after-tax wage rate. We implement this method to construct estimates of the willingness-to-pay to remove frictions in the United States and Germany. There are three core findings: (1) the cost of adjustment frictions (an omnibus measure encompassing, for example, fixed costs of adjustment, discrete choice sets, and search costs) is large for any reasonable value of the Hicksian ideal hours elasticity, even when accounting for multiple labor supply decisions, endogenous wages, and dynamic decisions; (2) the cumulative cost of adjustment frictions and tax misperceptions is even larger: individuals in the U.S. (Germany) would be willing to pay at least 7 % (4 %) of their income on average to remove these two frictions in hours worked; and (3) adjustment frictions appear to be much more costly than tax misperceptions.

本文使用两个充分的统计数据量化了人们愿意支付多少钱来消除阻碍他们实现理想工作时间的摩擦：(1)理想（即无摩擦）工作时间与实际工作时间之间的百分比差，以及(2)理想工作时间相对于税后工资率的希克斯弹性。我们在美国和德国实施了这种方法来构建支付意愿的估计，以消除摩擦。有三个核心发现：(1)调整摩擦的成本（包括固定调整成本、离散选择集和搜索成本的综合衡量）对于希克斯理想时间弹性的任何合理值都是很大的，即使在考虑多种劳动力供给决策、内生工资和动态决策时也是如此；(2)调整摩擦和税收误解的累积成本甚至更大：美国（德国）的个人愿意支付平均收入的至少7%（4%）来消除这两种摩擦（以工作时间计算）；(3)调整摩擦的代价似乎比税收误解要高得多。

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引用次数: 0

Optimal income tax deductions for mixed business and personal expenditures 企业和个人混合支出的最优所得税扣除

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105544

Jacob Goldin , Sebastian Koehne , Nicholas Lawson

We study the optimal taxation of expenditures that generate income while also serving a consumption function. We characterize the Pareto optimal income tax deduction for such mixed-purpose expenditures within a generalized Atkinson–Stiglitz model. Pareto optimality requires a partial deduction for mixed-purpose expenditures, where the deduction rate depends on the fraction of an expenditure’s marginal benefits that are attributable to income-generation rather than consumption. We extend our results to account for several practical considerations, including potential constraints related to a uniform deduction rate or a fixed income tax schedule.

我们研究了既产生收入又具有消费功能的支出的最优税收。我们在广义阿特金森-斯蒂格利茨模型中描述了这种混合用途支出的帕累托最优所得税扣除。帕累托最优要求对混合用途支出进行部分扣除，其中扣除率取决于支出边际收益中可归因于创收而非消费的部分。我们将结果扩展到考虑几个实际因素，包括与统一扣除率或固定所得税时间表相关的潜在约束。

引用次数: 0

Protectionism, evasion and household welfare evidence from Nigeria’s import bans 来自尼日利亚进口禁令的保护主义、逃税和家庭福利证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105543

Erhan Artuc , Guillermo Falcone , Guido Porto , Bob Rijkers

This paper analyzes the welfare impacts of import bans in Nigeria and how these impacts are shaped by evasion. Bans were not effectively enforced, thus fostering informal trade. The imposition of bans nonetheless increased consumer prices by 9.9 percent on average. However, price increases were substantially attenuated for goods for which trade policy is harder to enforce. Import bans disproportionately hurt richer households, who likewise disproportionately benefit from evasion.

本文分析了尼日利亚进口禁令对福利的影响，以及这些影响是如何被逃避所塑造的。禁令没有得到有效执行，从而助长了非正式贸易。然而，禁令的实施使消费者价格平均上涨了9.9%。然而，对于贸易政策难以执行的商品，价格涨幅明显减弱。进口禁令对富裕家庭的伤害尤为严重，而富裕家庭同样也从逃税中受益匪浅。

引用次数: 0

The impact of subjective school ratings on principal compensation and turnover 主观学校评分对校长薪酬及离职的影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105524

Iftikhar Hussain , Vincenzo Scrutinio , Shqiponja Telhaj

Prior research has established that objective, test-score-based school accountability measures impact school leaders. Subjective evaluations, on the other hand, can provide a more nuanced assessment of school quality. This paper investigates the impact of subjective school inspection ratings on the salary and career outcomes of school principals. Ratings capture not just overall school quality, but also more granular aspects such as leadership quality, teaching and student achievement. Employing a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the overall school inspection rating has substantial impact on principals’ salaries and their rate of exit from public sector schooling. These effects are highly asymmetric: worse ratings have a substantially larger impact compared to rating improvements. Our findings suggest that competition is a key mechanism through which changes in school inspection ratings affect principals. Crucially, by leveraging detailed quality ratings, we show for the first time that the labor market can distinguish between signals concerning overall school quality and those specific to senior management quality.

先前的研究已经证实，客观的、基于考试成绩的学校问责措施会影响学校领导。另一方面，主观评估可以提供对学校质量更细致入微的评估。摘要本研究旨在探讨主观学校视察评分对校长薪酬及职涯结果的影响。评级不仅反映了学校的整体质量，还反映了更细致的方面，如领导素质、教学和学生成绩。采用差异中的差异框架，我们发现整体学校检查评级对校长工资和他们从公立学校退学的比率有实质性影响。这些影响是高度不对称的：与评级改进相比，较差的评级会产生更大的影响。我们的研究结果表明，竞争是学校检查评级变化影响校长的关键机制。至关重要的是，通过利用详细的质量评级，我们首次表明，劳动力市场可以区分有关整体学校质量的信号和专门针对高级管理人员质量的信号。

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引用次数: 0

The devil is in the details: Heterogeneous effects of the German minimum wage on working hours and minijobs 细节决定成败：德国最低工资对工作时间和迷你工作的影响不尽相同

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105540

Mario Bossler , Ying Liang , Thorsten Schank

Germany introduced a national minimum wage in 2015. While prior studies find limited effects on overall employment, we go into detail and examine its impact on working hours and minijobs. The minimum wage significantly reduces inequality in hourly and monthly wages. While average working hours remain stable, minijobbers experience notable cuts in working hours, which can be explained by the institutional context shaping the effects of the minimum wage. Employment in regular jobs remains unaffected, but minijobs decline, driven by transitions into both regular jobs and non-employment. The latter implies an employment elasticity of

- 0.16

for minijob employment. Following the first major minimum wage increase in 2022, we reveal a reduction in working hours that is not limited to minijobs, corresponding to an employment volume elasticity of

- 0.38

德国在2015年引入了全国最低工资标准。虽然之前的研究发现对整体就业的影响有限，但我们深入研究了它对工作时间和迷你工作的影响。最低工资大大减少了时薪和月工资的不平等。虽然平均工作时间保持稳定，但小工的工作时间明显减少，这可以用影响最低工资影响的制度背景来解释。常规工作岗位的就业不受影响，但在向常规工作和非就业岗位过渡的推动下，微型工作岗位减少。后者意味着小型就业的就业弹性为- 0.16。在2022年首次大幅提高最低工资之后，我们发现工作时间的减少不仅限于微型工作，相当于就业数量弹性为- 0.38。

引用次数: 0

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