Journal of Public Economics最新文献

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The role of unrealized gains and borrowing in the taxation of the rich 未实现收益和借款在富人税收中的作用

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105518

Edward Fox , Zachary Liscow

As deficits rise and concerns about tax avoidance by the rich increase, we study how unrealized gains and borrowing affect Americans’ income taxes. We have four main findings: First, measuring “economic income” as currently-taxed income plus new unrealized gains, the income tax base captures 60 % of economic income of the top 1 % of wealth-holders (and 71 % adjusting for inflation) and the vast majority of income for lower wealth groups. Second, adjusting for unrealized gains substantially lessens the degree of progressivity in the income tax, although it remains largely progressive. Third, we quantify for the first time the amount of borrowing across the full wealth distribution. Focusing on the top 1 %, while total borrowing is substantial, new borrowing each year is fairly small (1–2 % of economic income) compared to their new unrealized gains, suggesting that “buy, borrow, die” is not a dominant tax avoidance strategy for the rich. Fourth, consumption is less than liquid income for rich Americans, partly because the rich have a large amount of liquid income, and partly because their savings rates are high, suggesting that the main tax avoidance strategy of the super-rich is “buy, save, die.”

随着赤字的增加和对富人避税的担忧的增加，我们研究了未实现收益和借款如何影响美国人的所得税。我们有四个主要发现：首先，将“经济收入”衡量为当前纳税收入加上新的未实现收益，所得税基数占财富最高的1%的经济收入的60%（经通货膨胀调整后为71%），占较低财富群体的绝大多数收入。其次，调整未实现收益大大降低了所得税的累进程度，尽管它在很大程度上仍然是累进的。第三，我们首次量化了整个财富分配中的借款数额。关注最富有的1%人群，虽然总借款数额巨大，但与他们新的未实现收益相比，每年的新借款相当小（占经济收入的1 - 2%），这表明“购买、借贷、死亡”并不是富人的主要避税策略。第四，美国富人的消费低于流动收入，部分原因是富人有大量的流动收入，部分原因是他们的储蓄率很高，这表明超级富豪的主要避税策略是“购买、储蓄、死亡”。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Pass-through of subsidies to prices under limited competition: Evidence from Canada’s Nutrition North program”. [J. Publ. Econ. 225 (2023)] “有限竞争下价格补贴的传递：来自加拿大北方营养计划的证据”的勘误表。[J。出版。经济学。225 (2023)]

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105542

Tracey Galloway , Nicholas Li

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Climate and migration in the United States”. [249 (2025) 105446] “美国的气候和移民”的勘误表。[249 (2025) 105446]

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105514

Patrick Baylis , Prashant Bharadwaj , Jamie T. Mullins , Nick Obradovich

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “The influence of inheritances on wealth inequality in rich countries”. [J. Public Econ. 247 (2025) 105398] 《遗产对富裕国家财富不平等的影响》的勘误。[J。公共经济。247 (2025)105398]

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105511

Salvatore Morelli , Brian Nolan , Juan C. Palomino , Philippe Van Kerm

引用次数: 0

School equalization in the shadow of Jim Crow: Causes and consequences of resource disparity in Mississippi circa 1940 吉姆·克劳阴影下的学校平等：1940年左右密西西比州资源差距的原因和后果

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105497

David Card , Leah Clark , Ciprian Domnisoru , Lowell Taylor

Mississippi’s 1920 school finance equalization program failed to benefit many of the state’s Black students—an outcome emblematic of broader patterns in the segregated U.S. South Bond (1934). In majority-Black districts, local officials disproportionately allocated funds from the state’s existing per capita fund to white schools. These elevated expenditures on white students rendered such districts ineligible for equalization aid, excluding Black students from its intended benefits. While Black students in majority-white districts experienced improvements in school spending and standards, those in majority-Black districts continued to endure extremely low—in some cases declining—levels of school funding. Exploiting variation in school spending induced by this so-called equalization policy, we document a tragedy in racist public policy. We estimate large positive marginal effects of local educational spending on Black students’ enrollment rates, educational attainment, and lifetime earnings. In contrast, estimated impacts of marginal spending on white students are minimal. A reallocation of funding toward Black students might have substantially improved their well-being at little cost to white students.

密西西比州1920年的学校财政平等计划未能使该州的许多黑人学生受益，这一结果象征着美国南部邦联（1934年）种族隔离的更广泛模式。在黑人占多数的地区，地方官员将该州现有的人均基金不成比例地分配给白人学校。在白人学生身上增加的开支使这些地区没有资格获得平等援助，将黑人学生排除在其预期的福利之外。虽然白人占多数的地区的黑人学生在学校支出和标准方面有所改善，但黑人占多数的地区的黑人学生继续忍受着极低的学校资助水平——在某些情况下是下降的。利用这种所谓的平等政策导致的学校支出变化，我们记录了种族主义公共政策中的悲剧。我们估计，地方教育支出对黑人学生的入学率、受教育程度和终身收入有很大的正边际效应。相比之下，边际支出对白人学生的影响微乎其微。如果把资金重新分配给黑人学生，可能会大大改善他们的生活，而白人学生的成本却很小。

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引用次数: 0

Laptops in the long run: Evidence from the one laptop per child program in rural Peru 笔记本电脑的长远发展：来自秘鲁农村每个孩子一台笔记本电脑项目的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105538

Santiago Cueto , Diether W. Beuermann , Julian Cristia , Ofer Malamud , Francisco Pardo

This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 Peruvian rural primary schools. We use administrative data on academic performance and grade progression over 10 years to estimate the long-run effects of increased computer access on (i) school performance over time and (ii) students’ educational trajectories. Following schools over time, we find no significant effects on academic performance but some evidence of negative effects on grade progression. Following students over time, we find no significant effects on primary and secondary completion, academic performance in secondary school, or university enrollment. Survey data indicate that computer access significantly improved students’ computer skills but not their cognitive skills; treated teachers received some training but did not improve their digital skills and showed limited use of technology in classrooms, suggesting the need for additional pedagogical support.

本文研究了在秘鲁531所农村小学对“每个孩子一台笔记本电脑”（OLPC）项目进行的大规模随机评估。我们使用10年来的学习成绩和成绩进步的行政数据来估计增加计算机访问对(i)随着时间的推移的学校表现和（ii）学生的教育轨迹的长期影响。随着时间的推移，我们发现对学习成绩没有显著影响，但对年级进步有一些负面影响。随着时间的推移，我们发现对小学和中学完成率、中学学业表现或大学入学率没有显著影响。调查数据表明，电脑的使用显著提高了学生的计算机技能，但没有提高他们的认知技能；接受治疗的教师接受了一些培训，但并没有提高他们的数字技能，而且在课堂上对技术的使用也很有限，这表明需要额外的教学支持。

引用次数: 0

Distributionally sensitive cost-benefit analysis 分配敏感的成本效益分析

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105536

Robin Boadway , Michael Smart

We propose a method for cost-benefit analysis of public policies that identifies potential Pareto improvements when losers from a reform are compensated through income tax changes. Reforms are desirable when they reduce aggregate excess burden in commodity and labor markets. This condition is equivalent to a weighted sum of individual compensating variations, where weights reflect the impacts of the policy reform on individuals’ labor incomes, rather than marginal social valuations of transfers to them. We identify cases in which distributional weights are increasing in individual incomes, despite inequality concerns.

我们提出了一种公共政策的成本效益分析方法，当改革的输家通过所得税变化得到补偿时，该方法可以识别潜在的帕累托改进。当改革能够减少商品和劳动力市场的总体超额负担时，改革是可取的。这一条件相当于个人补偿变化的加权总和，其中权重反映了政策改革对个人劳动收入的影响，而不是对转移支付的边际社会估值。我们确定的情况下，分配权重在个人收入增加，尽管不平等的担忧。

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of evasion around tax thresholds: Evidence from Indian firms 规避税收门槛的动态：来自印度公司的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105535

Keshav Choudhary , Bhanu Gupta

How do firms respond to size-based thresholds when dynamic responses matter? Using the context of an Indian revenue-based tax registration threshold that selectively affected some firms, coupled with administrative tax data, we examine how firm growth responds to a threshold. We find that firms respond by slowing down growth in reported revenue below the threshold by around 14 percentage points or roughly 42 % of average growth. A lack of corresponding change in reported costs suggests an evasion response rather than a real response by firms. We show that an increase in audit probability on crossing the threshold, rather than an increase in tax liability or compliance costs is the likely reason for firm slowdown. We rationalize our empirical findings by modifying the standard Allingham-Sandmo model of evasion to a dynamic setting. We use this framework to calculate deadweight loss due to a threshold when dynamic responses are relevant and find that the welfare cost can be substantial in the long run.

当动态响应很重要时，企业如何应对基于规模的阈值？利用印度基于收入的税收登记门槛的背景，结合行政税收数据，我们研究了企业增长如何响应门槛。我们发现，公司的反应是将报告收入的增长速度降低到阈值以下，降低了约14个百分点，约为平均增长率的42%。报告的成本缺乏相应的变化表明企业的反应是逃避，而不是真正的反应。我们的研究表明，企业增长放缓的可能原因是越过阈值时审计概率的增加，而不是纳税义务或合规成本的增加。我们通过将逃避的标准Allingham-Sandmo模型修改为动态设置来合理化我们的实证研究结果。当动态响应相关时，我们使用这个框架来计算阈值造成的无谓损失，并发现从长远来看，福利成本可能是可观的。

引用次数: 0

Air pollution and workplace accidents: Evidence and implications 空气污染和工作场所事故：证据和影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105539

Alessandro Palma , Domenico Depalo , Gabriele Curci

We estimate the impact of air pollution on workplace accidents and permanent disabilities in Italy, a setting characterized by stringent air pollution and work safety regulations. Using daily administrative data between 2014 and 2018, we leverage winter heating regulations and atmospheric dynamics to address the endogeneity of air pollution generation and exposure. We find an elasticity of accidents with respect to particulate matter (PM₁₀) of 0.12 and estimate no effect of pollution on disabilities. Using age groups as a proxy for work experience, we find larger impacts for less experienced workers. Increasing PM₁₀ by 10 µ g/m³ would raise the average cost of an accident by 78 euros (7.3 %); employers bear 60 % of this cost, and public insurers bear 40 %.

我们估计了意大利空气污染对工作场所事故和永久残疾的影响，意大利的环境以严格的空气污染和工作安全法规为特征。利用2014年至2018年的日常行政数据，我们利用冬季供暖法规和大气动力学来解决空气污染产生和暴露的内生性问题。我们发现事故对颗粒物（PM10）的弹性为0.12，估计污染对残疾没有影响。使用年龄分组作为工作经验的代表，我们发现经验不足的员工受到的影响更大。PM10每立方米增加10微克，事故的平均成本将增加78欧元（7.3%）；雇主承担60%的费用，公共保险公司承担40%。

引用次数: 0

Mortgages, Subways and Automobiles 抵押贷款，地铁和汽车

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105522

Sumit Agarwal , Yeow Hwee Chua , Pulak Ghosh , Soumya Kanti Ghosh , Liuyang She

We examine how sustainable infrastructure investments affect household financial outcomes by studying the impact of subway expansions on mortgage repayment behavior in Delhi, India. Using administrative data from one of India’s largest mortgage lenders, we find that households in postal codes with newly opened stations experience a 4.42% decline in mortgage delinquency rate and a 1.38% increase in prepayment rate. Evidence from vehicle registration records suggests that these improvements are driven by reduced automobile reliance, with vehicle spending falling by 6.52%. The effects are most pronounced among financially constrained households, who cut back on low-quality vehicle purchases and exhibit the greatest gains in repayment performance.

我们通过研究印度德里地铁扩建对抵押贷款偿还行为的影响，来检验可持续基础设施投资如何影响家庭财务结果。利用印度最大的抵押贷款机构之一的行政数据，我们发现邮政编码新开设车站的家庭抵押贷款拖欠率下降了4.42%，提前还款率上升了1.38%。车辆登记记录的证据表明，这些改善是由汽车依赖程度的降低推动的，车辆支出下降了6.52%。这种影响在财政拮据的家庭中最为明显，这些家庭减少了购买劣质汽车的数量，在还款方面表现出最大的收益。

引用次数: 0

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