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When weather wounds workers: The impact of temperature on workplace accidents
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105258
Katharina Drescher , Benedikt Janzen
We study the effects of temperature on occupational health using administrative data on Swiss occupational accidents from 1996 to 2019. Our results imply that on hot days (Tmax 30 °C) the number of occupational accidents increases by 7.4% and on ice days (Tmax< 0 °C) by 6.3%, relative to mild days. We find that extreme temperatures cause an average of 2600 workplace accidents each year, costing CHF 91 million annually. We provide suggestive evidence for insufficient sleep on hot days as a mechanism. While extreme temperatures worsen occupational health, we observe limited labor supply adaption for most workers.
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引用次数: 0
Where and why do politicians send pork? Evidence from central government transfers to French municipalities
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105276
Brice Fabre , Marc Sangnier
This paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers’ entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism toward childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed pork-barreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead.
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引用次数: 0
Sea level rise risks, adaptation strategies, and real estate prices in Singapore
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105290
Sumit Agarwal , Yu Qin , Tien Foo Sing , Changwei Zhan
This study exploits the Singapore Prime Minister’s announcement of the areas affected by sea level rise (SLR) within the country and its adaptation strategies valued at 100 billion Singapore dollars. Utilizing transaction-level data with exact locations, we find that public housing prices dropped by 7.2% in SLR areas four years after the announcement relative to non-SLR areas. In SLR areas with adaptation, the price depreciation was mitigated to 0.6%. In the private housing sector, freehold properties benefit more from adaptation strategies than leasehold properties. We calibrate the long-term discount rates before and after the shock at 2.27% and 2.14% in SLR areas and 2.35% and 2.12% in SLR areas with adaptation, respectively. (JEL H43, R21, R28, R38, R51, Q54)
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引用次数: 0
Populism and ideological convergence: Evidence from a multiparty system
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105271
Tuuli Tähtinen
Populist parties have gained significant power in European politics in the last decades, raising concerns about the potentially contagious effect of populism. I study how populist party representation in local councils affects other parties’ ideological positions. I use variation created by close elections to identify ideological shifts resulting from a change in party representation, holding voter preferences constant. I use candidate-level data from a voting advice application to estimate ideological positions, modeling candidates’ responses using item response theory to obtain measures of ideology that are comparable across election years. The results show that increased populist representation causes the ideological spectrum among other parties’ candidates in the municipality to become more concentrated. One additional seat for the populist party reduces the interquartile range of candidate positions by 9 %. While there is initial ideological convergence between mainstream and populist parties, it does not persist as the populist party continues to gain more seats. These effects take place only on the liberal-conservative dimension, while positions on the economic dimension are unaffected. The results demonstrate that increased populist representation influences other parties and causes ideological convergence within the candidate base.
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引用次数: 0
The effect of feedback on student performance
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105274
Esteban M. Aucejo , Kelvin Wong
This study examines the effect of scalable personalized feedback messages from professors on student performance in both synchronous and asynchronous classes, with a specific focus on first-generation students. We conducted a randomized controlled trial involving approximately 3,000 students across 39 introductory economics classes at Arizona State University. The feedback messages were tailored using information from students’ initial academic performance and surveys completed at the beginning of the semester. Our findings reveal that first-generation students in synchronous classes benefit significantly from personalized feedback, while no such effects are observed in asynchronous classes. In addition, the results suggest that aiding first-generation students in coping with adverse academic shocks, combined with professor encouragement, can be important in enhancing the effectiveness of feedback.
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引用次数: 0
Industrialization and pollution: The long-term Impact of early-life exposure on human capital formation
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105270
Pan Chen
Air quality in developing countries is often much worse than in developed economies, yet evidence on the long-term human capital effects of air pollution in these settings is limited. This paper uses a cohort difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of early-life exposure to air pollution during China’s 1950s industrialization on human capital formation. It assumes that economic opportunities linked to industrial plants impact upwind and downwind counties similarly within a 30-mile radius. The results indicate that moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure reduces children’s education by approximately 0.11 years. This effect size is notably larger than the impacts of three other factors affecting educational attainment in both China and the United States.
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引用次数: 0
One hundred years of U.S. state taxation
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105273
Sarah Robinson , Alisa Tazhitdinova
We analyze the evolution of U.S. state tax rates since 1910 and state tax revenues from 1942 until 2022. Tax policy shifted rapidly at the beginning of the 20th century, but in many ways has remained remarkably stable over the past fifty years. Even as tax rates change frequently and vary widely across states, the degree of heterogeneity across states in rates and revenues is very similar over time. We document two key insights for empirical researchers using variation in tax policy for identification. First, tax changes do not appear to be driven by economic conditions, as neither the timing of tax changes nor tax rates themselves exhibit a predictable pattern around state recessions. Second, throughout the time period we study, many tax changes occur simultaneously, particularly for personal, corporate, and sales taxes. Because the coinciding changes are typically moving in the same direction, researchers should use caution when attributing effects to a specific type of tax, and we show that estimates can be sensitive to controlling for additional tax rates.
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引用次数: 0
The effect of war on redistribution preferences
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105284
Alexei Zakharov , Philipp Chapkovski
Do wars change preferences for redistributive state policies? We analyze this question using a preregistered survey experiment involving N=3920 respondents in Russia conducted during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The order of questions in the survey was manipulated to remind some respondents of the war before measuring the outcome variables. We find that among individuals who favor the war, the war reminder increases preferences for redistribution. Our two-part design allows us to investigate the channels for this effect; we find that it is partly due to increased trust in the government. We also observe an increase in prosocial preferences among individuals who support the war, but this effect is not associated with the increase in redistribution preferences.
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引用次数: 0
Declining r∗ in the US: The role of Social Security
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105277
Jacopo Bonchi , Giacomo Caracciolo
We develop a quantitative life-cycle model to study the impact of Social Security on the US natural interest rate, r. Past reforms mitigated the r decline, raising the natural rate by approximately 1 percentage point between 1970 and 2015 through higher replacement rate and retirement age. In the future, increasing the retirement age would counteract the downward pressure on r due to demographics more than reforms entailing higher contribution or lower replacement rates, with the latter reform delivering the lowest r value across different future productivity scenarios for the US economy.
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引用次数: 0
Laffer’s day in court: The revenue effects of criminal justice fees and fines 拉弗的出庭日:刑事司法收费和罚款对收入的影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249
Samuel Norris , Evan K. Rose
Many jurisdictions levy sizable fines and fees (legal financial obligations, or LFOs) on criminal defendants. Proponents argue LFOs are a “tax on crime” that funds courts and provides deterrence; opponents argue they do neither. We examine the fiscal implications of lowering LFOs. Incentives to default generate a “Laffer” curve with revenue eventually decreasing in LFOs. Using detailed administrative data, however, we find few defendants demonstrably on the right-hand side of the curve. Those who are tend to be poor, Black, and charged with felonies. As a result, decreasing LFOs for the average defendant would come at substantial cost to governments.
许多司法管辖区都对刑事被告征收巨额罚金和费用(法律财务义务,或 LFOs)。支持者认为,LFO 是一种 "犯罪税",既能为法院提供资金,又能起到威慑作用;反对者则认为,LFO 两者都起不到作用。我们研究了降低 LFO 的财政影响。对违约行为的激励会产生一条 "拉弗 "曲线,即收入最终会随着低保率的降低而减少。然而,通过使用详细的行政数据,我们发现很少有被告明显处于曲线的右侧。处于右侧的被告往往是穷人、黑人和被控重罪的人。因此,减少普通被告的低刑期将使政府付出巨大代价。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Public Economics
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