Journal of Public Economics最新文献

英文中文

Labor supply response to windfall gains 劳动力供给对意外收益的反应

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105476

Dimitris Georgarakos , Tullio Jappelli , Geoff Kenny , Luigi Pistaferri

Using a large survey of euro area consumers, we conduct an experiment in which respondents report how they would adjust their labor market participation, hours worked, and job search effort (if not employed) in response to randomly assigned windfall gain scenarios. Windfall gains reduce labor supply, but only when the gains are substantial. At the extensive margin, gains of €25,000 or less have no effects, while gains between €50,000 and €100,000 reduce the probability of working by 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. At the intensive margin, small gains produce no impact, while gains above €50,000 lead to a reduction of approximately one hour of work per week. The effects among women and workers near retirement are stronger. The share of non-employed respondents who stop or reduce job search intensity declines by 1 percentage point for each €10,000 in windfall gain, with the strongest effects observed among older individuals receiving €100,000.

通过对欧元区消费者的大规模调查，我们进行了一项实验，在实验中，受访者报告了他们如何调整自己的劳动力市场参与度、工作时间和求职努力（如果没有工作），以应对随机分配的意外收获情景。意外收益减少了劳动力供给，但只有在收益相当可观的情况下才会如此。从广义上讲，2.5万欧元或更少的收益没有影响，而5万至10万欧元的收益会使工作的可能性降低1.5至3.5个百分点。在密集的边际上，小的收益不会产生影响，而超过5万欧元的收益会导致每周减少大约一小时的工作。女性和临近退休的工人受到的影响更大。每获得1万欧元的意外之财，停止或减少求职强度的非就业受访者的比例就会下降1个百分点，其中对获得10万欧元的老年人的影响最大。

引用次数: 0

Political backlash to refugee settlement: Cultural and economic drivers 对难民安置的政治反弹：文化和经济驱动因素

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105467

Francesco Campo , Sara Giunti , Mariapia Mendola , Giulia Tura

The 2015 refugee crisis in Europe has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment in host regions, with potential unintended consequences for refugee integration. We examine the heterogeneity of political backlash across Italian municipalities post-crisis and assess the concomitant role of economic vs socio-cultural factors in “welcoming" refugees (i.e., the supply side of integration). By leveraging the quasi-random dispersal policy and using causal forests, we find that refugee exposure has a significantly higher impact on anti-immigration backlash in more affluent areas and those with more bonding social capital. Conversely, areas with more bridging social capital, as measured by meaningful intergroup contact with former immigrants (e.g., mixed marriages), show less political backlash. We exploit this pattern of heterogeneity to evaluate counterfactual resettlement policies that minimize backlash. Results show that economic factors alone are insufficient to stem local discontent, while the socio-cultural dimension of host communities is crucial for the design of effective refugee resettlement programs.

2015年欧洲的难民危机加剧了收容地区的反移民情绪，可能会给难民融入带来意想不到的后果。我们研究了危机后意大利各城市政治反弹的异质性，并评估了经济因素与社会文化因素在“欢迎”难民（即融合的供应方）中的伴随作用。通过利用准随机分散政策和因果森林，我们发现难民暴露对反移民反弹的影响在更富裕的地区和具有更多联系社会资本的地区显著更高。相反，通过与前移民的有意义的群体间接触（如异族通婚）来衡量，具有更多桥接性社会资本的地区表现出较少的政治反弹。我们利用这种异质性模式来评估反事实的安置政策，以最大限度地减少反弹。结果表明，仅靠经济因素不足以遏制当地的不满情绪，而收容社区的社会文化层面对于设计有效的难民安置计划至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Pricing for opportunity: The impact of spatially varying rent subsidies on housing voucher neighborhoods and take-up 机会定价：空间差异的租金补贴对住房券社区和占用的影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105465

Ingrid Gould Ellen , Katherine O’Regan , Sarah Strochak

The Housing Choice Voucher program serves over 2.3 million households per year. While the program provides significant benefits, most voucher holders live in high-poverty neighborhoods, and many recipients fail to use their vouchers at all. This paper evaluates a new programmatic approach for expanding and improving neighborhood outcomes, which pegs voucher subsidy amounts to ZIP Code-level rents, rather than being uniform across an entire metro area. We find that this pricing change increases moves to higher rent, lower poverty ZIP Codes without increasing overall financial costs or affecting the ability of new voucher recipients to use their vouchers to lease homes. This even holds true for the recipients most at risk of experiencing a decline in their ability to use vouchers because the stock of voucher-eligible units near them likely decreases. We show that subgroups of households and landlords make adjustments on other margins, however. Specifically, those leasing in low-rent neighborhoods rent smaller homes and spend more of their income on rent, while landlords in these neighborhoods charge lower rents to match rent subsidies.

住房选择券计划每年为230多万户家庭提供服务。虽然该计划提供了显著的好处，但大多数代金券持有者生活在高度贫困的社区，许多接受者根本没有使用他们的代金券。本文评估了一种扩大和改善社区成果的新方案，该方案将代金券补贴金额与邮政编码级别的租金挂钩，而不是在整个都会区统一。我们发现，这种价格变化增加了向更高租金、更低贫困邮政编码的转移，而不会增加总体财务成本，也不会影响新代金券接受者使用代金券租赁房屋的能力。这甚至适用于那些最有可能经历使用代金券能力下降的人，因为他们附近符合代金券条件的单位的库存可能会减少。然而，我们表明，家庭和房东的子群体在其他边际上进行了调整。具体来说，那些在低租金社区租房的人租的房子更小，把更多的收入花在房租上，而这些社区的房东收取更低的租金，以匹配租金补贴。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring small business dynamics and employment with private-sector real-time data 利用私营部门实时数据衡量小企业动态和就业情况

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105477

André Kurmann , Etienne Lalé , Lien Ta

This paper proposes a novel methodology to distinguish true business openings and closings from sample churn in private-sector data and to evaluate the representativeness of the resulting estimates by leveraging supplementary high-frequency information on individual business activity. The methodology produces both real-time estimates using only concurrent information and retrospective estimates that incorporate additional information as it becomes available, reflecting a fundamental trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. The methodology is applied to a real-time sample of small businesses widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic to demonstrate its usefulness under extreme circumstances. The application highlights the importance of properly accounting for business openings and closings and at the same time yields two important insights about small business dynamics during the pandemic: (i) small business employment in in-person service sectors experienced larger swings at the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, primarily due to a spike in temporary closings; (ii) delayed access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program significantly increased small business closings but had minimal impact on employment of continuing businesses, suggesting the program’s effectiveness operated primarily through preventing closures rather than preserving jobs at operating businesses.

本文提出了一种新的方法，从私营部门数据的样本流失中区分真正的企业开业和关闭，并通过利用有关个人商业活动的补充高频信息来评估所得估计的代表性。该方法既产生仅使用并发信息的实时评估，也产生包含可用的附加信息的回顾性评估，反映了及时性和准确性之间的基本权衡。该方法应用于2019冠状病毒病大流行期间广泛使用的小型企业的实时样本，以证明其在极端情况下的有效性。该应用强调了正确核算企业开业和关闭的重要性，同时对大流行期间的小企业动态产生了两个重要见解：(i)在大流行开始时，面对面服务部门的小企业就业比大型企业的就业波动更大，主要原因是临时关闭的数量激增；（ii）延迟获得工资保护计划的贷款显著增加了小企业的倒闭，但对持续经营的企业的就业影响微乎其微，这表明该计划的有效性主要是通过防止倒闭而不是保留经营企业的就业机会来发挥作用。

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引用次数: 0

Who benefits from pharmaceutical price controls? Evidence from India 谁从药品价格管制中受益？来自印度的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105478

Emma B. Dean

This study examines the impacts of pharmaceutical price controls in a middle-income country setting, focusing on an implementation of pharmaceutical price ceilings in India. In the short-term, it finds that price controls led to declining prices for directly-impacted and competing products and increased market share for high-quality products. However, after price controls were implemented, low-priced firms were more likely to exit price-controlled markets and sales of price-controlled products declined in markets with stronger price controls. The benefits of the legislation were largest for quality-sensitive consumers, while the downsides most affected price-sensitive consumers.

本研究考察了中等收入国家设置药品价格控制的影响，重点是在印度实施药品价格上限。在短期内，研究发现价格控制导致直接受影响和竞争产品的价格下降，高质量产品的市场份额增加。然而，在实施价格控制后，低价企业更有可能退出价格控制市场，价格控制产品的销售在价格控制更强的市场中下降。对质量敏感的消费者受益最大，而对价格敏感的消费者影响最大。

引用次数: 0

Pro-social preferences and the paradox of voting 亲社会偏好和投票的悖论

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105479

Christine T. Bangum , Benny Geys , Rune J. Sørensen

Why do people vote in large elections? Theoretical arguments to resolve this paradox of voting often emphasize individuals’ pro-social motivations, which make turnout decisions less sensitive to the pivot probability. Using Norwegian population-wide register data, we test this argument by leveraging population-size shocks from inter-municipal mobility and proxying pro-social motivations via individuals’ charitable donations. We find that increasing electorate size widens the turnout gap between more/less pro-social individuals, and that turnout of pro-social individuals responds less to population-size shocks. Simulated municipality-level pivot probabilities suggest the (expected) probability of influencing election outcomes as a driving force behind these findings.

为什么人们要在大型选举中投票？解决这一投票悖论的理论论点往往强调个人的亲社会动机，这使得投票率决策对支点概率不那么敏感。利用挪威全国人口登记数据，我们通过利用城市间流动的人口规模冲击和通过个人慈善捐赠代理亲社会动机来检验这一论点。我们发现，选民规模的增加扩大了亲社会个体与不亲社会个体之间的投票率差距，亲社会个体的投票率对人口规模冲击的反应较小。模拟的市政一级枢纽概率表明（预期的）影响选举结果的概率是这些发现背后的驱动力。

引用次数: 0

Revealing 21% of GDP in hidden assets: Evidence from Argentina 隐藏资产占GDP的21%：来自阿根廷的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105471

Juliana Londoño-Vélez , Dario Tortarolo

Argentina’s 2016 tax amnesty led to the disclosure of hidden assets totaling 21 % of GDP—an exceptionally large amount, concentrated offshore and among the wealthiest 0.1 %. We examine how this enforcement initiative affected taxpayer behavior, tax progressivity, and revenue. Compliance improved—especially among high-wealth individuals—expanding the bases of both the wealth and capital income taxes. A subsequent tax hike on foreign assets further enhanced progressivity and raised effective tax rates on the top 0.1 %, generating nearly 0.8 % of GDP in wealth tax revenue—one of the highest yields globally. We discuss why, despite prior failed amnesties, Argentina’s 2016 policy package proved unusually effective.

阿根廷2016年的税收特赦导致总计占gdp 21%的隐藏资产被披露，这是一个异常庞大的数额，集中在海外，集中在最富有的0.1%人群中。我们研究了这一执法举措如何影响纳税人的行为、税收累进性和收入。合规情况有所改善——尤其是在高财富人群中——扩大了财富和资本所得税的基数。随后对外国资产的增税进一步提高了累进性，提高了最富有的0.1%人群的有效税率，创造了占GDP近0.8%的财富税收入——这是全球最高的收益之一。我们讨论了为什么尽管先前的大赦失败了，阿根廷2016年的一揽子政策却异常有效。

引用次数: 0

The pond dilemma with heterogeneous relative concerns 具有异质相对关系的池塘困境

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105475

Paweł Gola

This paper explores team formation when workers differ in skills and their desire to out-earn co-workers. I cast this question as a two-dimensional assignment problem, characterise the equilibrium sorting and payoffs for three large classes of specifications, and find that heterogeneity in status preferences drastically changes the distributional and organisational consequences of skill-biased technological change (SBTC). Strikingly, the benefits of SBTC trickle down to low-skill workers with weak relative concerns even when there are no complementarities in production. Moreover, SBTC incentivises domestic outsourcing, as firms seek to avoid detrimental social comparisons between high- and low-skill workers, which provides a compelling explanation for the observed long-term increase in domestic outsourcing.

本文探讨了当员工技能不同时的团队形成以及他们比同事挣得多的愿望。我把这个问题作为一个二维分配问题，描述了三大类规格的均衡排序和收益，并发现状态偏好的异质性极大地改变了技能偏向的技术变革（SBTC）的分配和组织后果。引人注目的是，即使在生产中没有互补性的情况下，SBTC的好处也会渗透到相对关注程度较低的低技能工人身上。此外，SBTC鼓励国内外包，因为公司寻求避免高技能和低技能工人之间有害的社会比较，这为观察到的国内外包的长期增长提供了令人信服的解释。

引用次数: 0

Does SNAP participation increase bulk purchases? SNAP参与会增加大宗采购吗？

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105442

Hannah Wich , Katherine Harris-Lagoudakis

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) issues monthly lump-sum payments. One potential benefit of SNAP payments is that they could ease liquidity constraints for participating households. Using novel retailer panel data, this is the first study to investigate the effect of SNAP on bulk purchasing behavior using within-household variation. To estimate a causal relationship between SNAP and bulk purchases, we use the timing of program re-certification as a source of exogenous variation in the decision to participate in SNAP. We find that participating in SNAP increases the expenditure share of bulk purchases for all groceries by six percentage points. Analyses aiming to disentangle whether increased bulk spending among SNAP households reflects an “income effect” or a “liquidity effect” point to the former, with spending patterns indicating “splurge behavior” rather than efforts to minimize prices.

补充营养援助计划（SNAP）每月发放一次性付款。SNAP支付的一个潜在好处是，它们可以缓解参与家庭的流动性限制。使用新颖的零售商面板数据，这是第一次研究SNAP对家庭内部差异的大宗购买行为的影响。为了估计SNAP与大宗采购之间的因果关系，我们使用计划重新认证的时间作为参与SNAP决策的外生变化的来源。我们发现，参与SNAP使所有杂货的大宗采购支出份额增加了6个百分点。旨在弄清SNAP家庭大宗支出增加反映的是“收入效应”还是“流动性效应”的分析指向前者，支出模式表明的是“挥霍行为”，而不是努力将价格降至最低。

引用次数: 0

Frictions in recovering unclaimed property: Evidence from a large-scale natural field experiment 回收无人认领财产的摩擦：来自大规模自然田野实验的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105449

Alejandro Zentner , Justin Holz

Governments hold billions of dollars in assets abandoned or forgotten by their owners. We conducted a large-scale natural field experiment to understand the role of filing frictions preventing claims of this property. Overall, increasing awareness and providing instructions increased claims substantially. We also study unequal access. In the control group, Hispanic property owners are 64 % less likely to claim their property than White owners, leading to unequal access to one’s own property. Hispanic subjects are also less responsive to aid. We discuss policy implications and how the setting we introduce can be used to conduct natural field experiments without the biases and restrictions that may arise when conducting experiments with a partner organization.

政府持有数十亿美元被其所有者抛弃或遗忘的资产。我们进行了大规模的自然现场实验，以了解提交摩擦的作用，防止索赔这一属性。总的来说，提高意识和提供指导大大增加了索赔。我们也研究了不平等的机会。在对照组中，西班牙裔业主比白人业主认领财产的可能性低64% %，这导致了对自己财产的不平等获取。西班牙裔受试者对援助的反应也较差。我们讨论了政策含义，以及我们引入的环境如何用于进行自然现场实验，而不会出现与合作组织进行实验时可能出现的偏见和限制。

引用次数: 0

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Journal of Public Economics

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