Journal of Public Economics最新文献

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Do gender board quotas matter for working mothers? Evidence from state-owned firms in Italy 董事会性别比例对职场母亲有影响吗？来自意大利国有企业的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105520

Agata Maida , Andrea Weber

In developed countries, the absence of family friendly workplace policies is seen as an important driver of low fertility rates. In this paper we examine whether the introduction of gender quota on boards of directors indirectly lead to an increase in fertility and improvements of careers of young mothers working in companies subject to the quota. We exploit the introduction of an Italian law mandating a strict gender quota on the boards of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in 2013 and leverage matched administrative data on firms and employees from 2008 to 2019. Using a triple-difference-in-differences design, we show that the law substantially increased female board representation. But we find no significant effects on fertility proxied by mandatory maternity leaves, post-childbirth retention, parental leave uptake, or wage penalties following maternity. Overall, the results suggest that while gender quotas successfully diversify leadership, they do not, in isolation, transform workplace practices or mitigate structural disadvantages faced by working mothers.

在发达国家，缺乏有利于家庭的工作场所政策被视为低生育率的一个重要驱动因素。在本文中，我们研究了在董事会中引入性别配额是否间接导致在受配额限制的公司工作的年轻母亲的生育率增加和职业改善。我们利用意大利2013年出台的一项法律，要求国有企业董事会严格实行性别配额，并利用2008年至2019年企业和员工的相关行政数据。使用三差中差设计，我们表明法律大大增加了女性董事会代表。但我们发现，强制性产假、产后保留、育儿假的使用或产假后的工资处罚对生育率没有显著影响。总体而言，结果表明，虽然性别配额成功地使领导层多样化，但单独来看，它们并没有改变工作场所的做法，也没有减轻职业母亲面临的结构性劣势。

引用次数: 0

Accounting for the profits of multinational enterprises: Double counting and misattribution of foreign affiliate income 跨国企业利润的会计处理：国外关联公司收入的重复计算和错误归属

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105512

Jennifer Blouin , Leslie Robinson

Given the perception that multinational enterprises (MNEs) engage in extensive tax planning, ending base erosion and profit shifting activity is a priority on many national agendas. Yet the actual level of such activity is subject to debate. In this paper, we provide guidance on how to accurately measure country-level MNE income using the datasets commonly used in research on profit shifting. This issue is of global concern, as any economic data that reports profits by jurisdiction must use an established accounting method to report the activity of the MNEs’ indirectly owned foreign affiliates. We explain how the accounting method could lead a researcher to double count income or to attribute it to the wrong jurisdiction. Such errors not only affect measures of the MNEs’ country-level profits, but also bias researchers’ estimates of the sensitivity of income to taxes. Although we focus our analysis on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), we illustrate the consequences of such mismeasurement across a variety of studies relying on a variety of data sources.

鉴于跨国企业（MNEs）从事广泛的税收筹划，结束税基侵蚀和利润转移活动是许多国家议程的优先事项。然而，此类活动的实际水平仍存在争议。在本文中，我们提供了如何使用利润转移研究中常用的数据集准确衡量国家级跨国公司收入的指导。这个问题是全球关注的问题，因为任何按司法管辖区报告利润的经济数据都必须使用一种既定的会计方法来报告跨国公司间接拥有的外国子公司的活动。我们解释了会计方法如何导致研究人员重复计算收入或将其归因于错误的司法管辖区。这样的错误不仅影响跨国公司国家层面利润的衡量，也会影响研究人员对收入对税收敏感性的估计。虽然我们的分析重点是来自美国经济分析局（BEA）的数据，但我们在依赖于各种数据源的各种研究中说明了这种错误测量的后果。

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引用次数: 0

Party politics, inter-jurisdictional cooperation and law enforcement: Evidence from Mexico 政党政治、跨司法管辖区合作与执法：来自墨西哥的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105513

Emilio Depetris-Chauvin , Ruben Durante , Emilio Gutierrez

We study how partisan politics affect inter-jurisdictional cooperation and public good provision in federal systems. We focus on law enforcement in Mexico, a country marked by high violent crime and strong partisan cleavages. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, we show that municipalities where the party in power in most neighbors barely won are more likely to cooperate with their neighbors on law enforcement than those where it barely lost, especially during periods of widespread violence. Such cooperation, in turn, improves crime prevention and significantly reduces homicide rates, with effects increasing the more neighbors are governed by the same party. These results hold regardless of party identity, incumbency, or cooperation with federal or state authorities. Overall, our findings indicate that while horizontal cooperation can improve local public goods in the presence of geographical spillovers, partisan divisions may hinder this process.

我们研究党派政治如何影响联邦系统中的跨司法管辖区合作和公共产品供应。我们把重点放在墨西哥的执法上，这个国家的暴力犯罪率高，党派分歧严重。在势均力平的市政选举中使用回归不连续设计，我们表明，在大多数邻居中，执政党几乎没有获胜的市政当局比那些几乎没有失败的市政当局更有可能在执法方面与邻居合作，特别是在普遍暴力期间。这种合作反过来又能提高预防犯罪的能力，并显著降低凶杀率，同一政党统治的邻居越多，其效果就越明显。这些结果与政党身份、在任或与联邦或州当局的合作无关。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，虽然横向合作可以在存在地理溢出的情况下改善地方公共产品，但党派分歧可能会阻碍这一进程。

引用次数: 0

Tax policy and business entry 税收政策和业务进入

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105537

Ian Sapollnik , Dustin Swonder

This paper measures the effects of state corporate and personal income tax reforms on business entry using an event study research design. We focus on reforms that do not coincide with federal tax changes, are preceded and followed by stable tax policy, and substantially change tax burdens. Corporate tax reforms cause meaningful changes in business entry: we measure a 5-year elasticity of 2.7 with respect to the net-of-tax rate. This is driven by large effects of tax cuts. Corporate tax cuts also reduce the predicted growth potential of entrants. We do not find strong evidence of cross-border spillovers, and find no evidence that personal income tax reforms affect business entry.

本文采用事件研究研究设计来衡量国家公司税和个人所得税改革对企业进入的影响。我们将重点关注那些不与联邦税收变化同时进行的改革，这些改革在之前和之后都有稳定的税收政策，并大幅改变税收负担。公司税改革在企业分录方面造成了有意义的变化：我们衡量净税率的5年弹性为2.7。这是由减税的巨大影响推动的。企业减税也降低了新进入者的预期增长潜力。我们没有发现跨境溢出效应的有力证据，也没有发现个人所得税改革影响企业进入的证据。

引用次数: 0

Combating cross-border externalities: Evidence from China’s inter-provincial ecological compensation initiatives 应对跨境外部性：来自中国省际生态补偿举措的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105495

Shiyi Chen , Joshua Graff-Zivin , Huanhuan Wang , Jiaxin Xiong

We examine China’s Ecological Compensation Initiative (ECI), which facilitates cross-provincial payments to reduce pollution in the Xin’an River. Using firm-level data, we find the policy significantly reduced upstream emissions, especially among firms closer to the river’s boundary. The ECI also increased firm exits and reduced new entries. A cost-benefit analysis shows that both upstream and downstream provinces benefited, as did the central government, supporting the ECI’s long-term feasibility and durability. Evidence from similar later programs highlights the ECI’s broader relevance, suggesting that well-designed compensation schemes can effectively address cross-jurisdictional environmental externalities.

我们研究了中国的生态补偿倡议（ECI），该倡议促进了跨省支付以减少新安江的污染。利用企业层面的数据，我们发现该政策显著减少了上游排放，尤其是靠近河流边界的企业。ECI还增加了企业退出，减少了新进入企业。成本效益分析表明，上游和下游省份都受益，中央政府也受益，这支持了ECI的长期可行性和持久性。后来类似项目的证据突出了ECI的广泛相关性，表明设计良好的补偿方案可以有效地解决跨司法管辖区的环境外部性问题。

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of evasion around tax thresholds: Evidence from Indian firms 规避税收门槛的动态：来自印度公司的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105535

Keshav Choudhary , Bhanu Gupta

How do firms respond to size-based thresholds when dynamic responses matter? Using the context of an Indian revenue-based tax registration threshold that selectively affected some firms, coupled with administrative tax data, we examine how firm growth responds to a threshold. We find that firms respond by slowing down growth in reported revenue below the threshold by around 14 percentage points or roughly 42 % of average growth. A lack of corresponding change in reported costs suggests an evasion response rather than a real response by firms. We show that an increase in audit probability on crossing the threshold, rather than an increase in tax liability or compliance costs is the likely reason for firm slowdown. We rationalize our empirical findings by modifying the standard Allingham-Sandmo model of evasion to a dynamic setting. We use this framework to calculate deadweight loss due to a threshold when dynamic responses are relevant and find that the welfare cost can be substantial in the long run.

当动态响应很重要时，企业如何应对基于规模的阈值？利用印度基于收入的税收登记门槛的背景，结合行政税收数据，我们研究了企业增长如何响应门槛。我们发现，公司的反应是将报告收入的增长速度降低到阈值以下，降低了约14个百分点，约为平均增长率的42%。报告的成本缺乏相应的变化表明企业的反应是逃避，而不是真正的反应。我们的研究表明，企业增长放缓的可能原因是越过阈值时审计概率的增加，而不是纳税义务或合规成本的增加。我们通过将逃避的标准Allingham-Sandmo模型修改为动态设置来合理化我们的实证研究结果。当动态响应相关时，我们使用这个框架来计算阈值造成的无谓损失，并发现从长远来看，福利成本可能是可观的。

引用次数: 0

Mortgages, Subways and Automobiles 抵押贷款，地铁和汽车

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105522

Sumit Agarwal , Yeow Hwee Chua , Pulak Ghosh , Soumya Kanti Ghosh , Liuyang She

We examine how sustainable infrastructure investments affect household financial outcomes by studying the impact of subway expansions on mortgage repayment behavior in Delhi, India. Using administrative data from one of India’s largest mortgage lenders, we find that households in postal codes with newly opened stations experience a 4.42% decline in mortgage delinquency rate and a 1.38% increase in prepayment rate. Evidence from vehicle registration records suggests that these improvements are driven by reduced automobile reliance, with vehicle spending falling by 6.52%. The effects are most pronounced among financially constrained households, who cut back on low-quality vehicle purchases and exhibit the greatest gains in repayment performance.

我们通过研究印度德里地铁扩建对抵押贷款偿还行为的影响，来检验可持续基础设施投资如何影响家庭财务结果。利用印度最大的抵押贷款机构之一的行政数据，我们发现邮政编码新开设车站的家庭抵押贷款拖欠率下降了4.42%，提前还款率上升了1.38%。车辆登记记录的证据表明，这些改善是由汽车依赖程度的降低推动的，车辆支出下降了6.52%。这种影响在财政拮据的家庭中最为明显，这些家庭减少了购买劣质汽车的数量，在还款方面表现出最大的收益。

引用次数: 0

The impact of unexpected delays in periodic payments on consumption 定期付款的意外延迟对消费的影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105523

Michael Gelman , Zachary Orlando , Dhiren Patki

We study how unexpected delays in periodic payments affect spending behavior. Our empirical approach uses transaction-level data on income and spending and exploits quasi-random delays in the receipt of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Spending drops by about half of the loss in income that occurs while individuals wait for UI benefits, revealing the value of periodic payments for liquidity-constrained individuals. Once delayed payments are received as lump sums, individuals reallocate spending toward less commonly purchased big-ticket categories that are dominated by durables.

我们研究周期性付款的意外延迟如何影响消费行为。我们的实证方法使用关于收入和支出的交易级数据，并利用失业保险（UI）福利的准随机延迟。在个人等待失业保险福利期间，支出下降了大约一半的收入损失，这揭示了定期支付对流动性受限的个人的价值。一旦一次性收到延迟付款，个人就会将支出重新分配到以耐用品为主的不太常见的大额消费类别上。

引用次数: 0

Air pollution and workplace accidents: Evidence and implications 空气污染和工作场所事故：证据和影响

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105539

Alessandro Palma , Domenico Depalo , Gabriele Curci

We estimate the impact of air pollution on workplace accidents and permanent disabilities in Italy, a setting characterized by stringent air pollution and work safety regulations. Using daily administrative data between 2014 and 2018, we leverage winter heating regulations and atmospheric dynamics to address the endogeneity of air pollution generation and exposure. We find an elasticity of accidents with respect to particulate matter (PM₁₀) of 0.12 and estimate no effect of pollution on disabilities. Using age groups as a proxy for work experience, we find larger impacts for less experienced workers. Increasing PM₁₀ by 10 µ g/m³ would raise the average cost of an accident by 78 euros (7.3 %); employers bear 60 % of this cost, and public insurers bear 40 %.

我们估计了意大利空气污染对工作场所事故和永久残疾的影响，意大利的环境以严格的空气污染和工作安全法规为特征。利用2014年至2018年的日常行政数据，我们利用冬季供暖法规和大气动力学来解决空气污染产生和暴露的内生性问题。我们发现事故对颗粒物（PM10）的弹性为0.12，估计污染对残疾没有影响。使用年龄分组作为工作经验的代表，我们发现经验不足的员工受到的影响更大。PM10每立方米增加10微克，事故的平均成本将增加78欧元（7.3%）；雇主承担60%的费用，公共保险公司承担40%。

引用次数: 0

Crowding out crowd support? Substitution between formal and informal insurance 排挤人群的支持？正式保险和非正式保险之间的替代

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105499

Kyle Coombs

Interpersonal gifts and loans play an underexplored informal insurance role in high-income countries, posing challenges for social insurance policy design. I examine informal support via person-to-person (P2P) payment platforms using a survey-linked administrative bank transaction dataset covering low-income US users with job loss. Event study estimates show average monthly P2P inflows increase by 1.1 % of lost income one month after job loss before returning to baseline over 10 months. Single mothers receive the largest increases, as do those with high prior earnings or those living in high-income areas. Exploiting three plausibly exogenous changes to federal pandemic UI policy, I estimate that an additional dollar of UI benefits crowds out at most $0.05 of informal transfers. These results imply that UI can raise welfare by pooling risk across networks without reducing within-network risk pooling through informal insurance.

人际赠与和贷款在高收入国家发挥着未充分开发的非正式保险作用，对社会保险政策设计提出了挑战。我研究了通过个人对个人（P2P）支付平台提供的非正式支持，使用了一个与调查相关的行政银行交易数据集，涵盖了失业的美国低收入用户。事件研究估计显示，失业后一个月平均每月P2P流入量增加1.1%，然后在10个月内恢复到基线水平。单身母亲获得的增幅最大，之前收入高的人或生活在高收入地区的人也是如此。利用联邦流行病失业保险政策的三个看似外生的变化，我估计，每增加一美元的失业保险福利，最多只能挤出0.05美元的非正式转移支付。这些结果表明，UI可以通过跨网络分担风险来提高福利，而不会通过非正式保险减少网络内的风险分担。

引用次数: 0

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