Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105513
Emilio Depetris-Chauvin , Ruben Durante , Emilio Gutierrez
We study how partisan politics affect inter-jurisdictional cooperation and public good provision in federal systems. We focus on law enforcement in Mexico, a country marked by high violent crime and strong partisan cleavages. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, we show that municipalities where the party in power in most neighbors barely won are more likely to cooperate with their neighbors on law enforcement than those where it barely lost, especially during periods of widespread violence. Such cooperation, in turn, improves crime prevention and significantly reduces homicide rates, with effects increasing the more neighbors are governed by the same party. These results hold regardless of party identity, incumbency, or cooperation with federal or state authorities. Overall, our findings indicate that while horizontal cooperation can improve local public goods in the presence of geographical spillovers, partisan divisions may hinder this process.
{"title":"Party politics, inter-jurisdictional cooperation and law enforcement: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"Emilio Depetris-Chauvin , Ruben Durante , Emilio Gutierrez","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how partisan politics affect inter-jurisdictional cooperation and public good provision in federal systems. We focus on law enforcement in Mexico, a country marked by high violent crime and strong partisan cleavages. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, we show that municipalities where the party in power in most neighbors barely won are more likely to cooperate with their neighbors on law enforcement than those where it barely lost, especially during periods of widespread violence. Such cooperation, in turn, improves crime prevention and significantly reduces homicide rates, with effects increasing the more neighbors are governed by the same party. These results hold regardless of party identity, incumbency, or cooperation with federal or state authorities. Overall, our findings indicate that while horizontal cooperation can improve local public goods in the presence of geographical spillovers, partisan divisions may hinder this process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 105513"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105496
Jonathan Gruber , Tuomas Kosonen , Kristiina Huttunen
We study the impacts of the Finnish Home Care Allowance (HCA) for mothers who stay at home with children that are under age of three. We use regional and over time variation to show that the HCA decreases maternal employment in both the short and long term. The effects are large enough to explain the relatively high short-term child penalty in Finland. HCA negatively affects the early childhood cognitive test results of children, decreases enrollment in high school, and increases youth crimes. We confirm our results by studying a daycare fee reform that had the opposite effects on mothers and children.
{"title":"Paying moms to stay home: Short and long run effects on parents and children","authors":"Jonathan Gruber , Tuomas Kosonen , Kristiina Huttunen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impacts of the Finnish Home Care Allowance (HCA) for mothers who stay at home with children that are under age of three. We use regional and over time variation to show that the HCA decreases maternal employment in both the short and long term. The effects are large enough to explain the relatively high short-term child penalty in Finland. HCA negatively affects the early childhood cognitive test results of children, decreases enrollment in high school, and increases youth crimes. We confirm our results by studying a daycare fee reform that had the opposite effects on mothers and children.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105496"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145418130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105494
Cici McNamara , Mayra Pineda-Torres
We quantify the impact of federal subsidies for graduate medical education on primary care physician (PCP) supply by examining the impact of Section 5503 of the Affordable Care Act, which increased the number of residents that teaching hospitals in rural and high-need areas could receive subsidies for training. Instrumenting for selection into the program using its eligibility criteria, we find that the provision increased both recruitment of residents into primary care and time spent at teaching hospitals in high-need areas, resulting in a 4.1 % increase in PCP supply.
通过检验《平价医疗法案》（Affordable care Act）第5503条的影响，我们量化了联邦对研究生医学教育补贴对初级保健医生（PCP）供应的影响，该法案增加了农村和高需求地区的教学医院可以获得培训补贴的居民人数。通过使用项目的资格标准进行选择，我们发现该规定增加了初级保健的住院医生招聘和在高需求地区的教学医院花费的时间，导致PCP供应增加了4.1%。
{"title":"Medical residency subsidies and physician shortages","authors":"Cici McNamara , Mayra Pineda-Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We quantify the impact of federal subsidies for graduate medical education on primary care physician (PCP) supply by examining the impact of Section 5503 of the Affordable Care Act, which increased the number of residents that teaching hospitals in rural and high-need areas could receive subsidies for training. Instrumenting for selection into the program using its eligibility criteria, we find that the provision increased both recruitment of residents into primary care and time spent at teaching hospitals in high-need areas, resulting in a 4.1 % increase in PCP supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105494"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145418027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105519
Yin Chu , J. Scott Holladay , Xian-Liang Tian
Recent research suggests that personalized, reciprocal ties within political hierarchies, often described as patronage connections or patron-client networks, can enhance local economic growth. We provide evidence that such informal ties may also facilitate progress on secondary policy objectives: connections between Chinese city and provincial leaders contribute to emissions reductions. To identify these connections, we employ a past-promotion-based method and leverage the reshuffling of both city and provincial leaders. We instrument for patronage using the relative tenure of provincial and city officials. Our analysis focuses on China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006–2010), which assigned emissions reductions targets to provinces but delegated enforcement to local officials. We present both firm-level and city-level evidence that emissions declined more rapidly in cities where the local leader was connected to the provincial superior. Firms in cities with connected leaders reduced emissions by approximately 10% more than those in unconnected cities. The cleanup is concentrated among foreign and domestically owned private firms and the primary driver is reduced emissions intensity at existing firms. Our findings suggest that alignment through patronage can help mitigate principal-agent problems across government hierarchies in the pursuit of secondary policy objectives.
{"title":"Patronage and pollution abatement","authors":"Yin Chu , J. Scott Holladay , Xian-Liang Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent research suggests that personalized, reciprocal ties within political hierarchies, often described as patronage connections or patron-client networks, can enhance local economic growth. We provide evidence that such informal ties may also facilitate progress on secondary policy objectives: connections between Chinese city and provincial leaders contribute to emissions reductions. To identify these connections, we employ a past-promotion-based method and leverage the reshuffling of both city and provincial leaders. We instrument for patronage using the relative tenure of provincial and city officials. Our analysis focuses on China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006–2010), which assigned emissions reductions targets to provinces but delegated enforcement to local officials. We present both firm-level and city-level evidence that emissions declined more rapidly in cities where the local leader was connected to the provincial superior. Firms in cities with connected leaders reduced emissions by approximately 10% more than those in unconnected cities. The cleanup is concentrated among foreign and domestically owned private firms and the primary driver is reduced emissions intensity at existing firms. Our findings suggest that alignment through patronage can help mitigate principal-agent problems across government hierarchies in the pursuit of secondary policy objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105519"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145418129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105501
Luca Micheletto , Dylan T. Moore , Daniel Reck , Joel Slemrod
Traditional optimal commodity tax analysis, dating back to Ramsey (1927), prescribes that to maximize welfare one should impose higher taxes on goods with lower demand elasticities. Yet policy makers do not stress minimizing efficiency costs as a desideratum. In this note we revisit the commodity tax problem, and show that the attractiveness of the Ramsey inverse-elasticity prescription can itself be inverted if the tax system is chosen – or at least strongly influenced – by taxpayers who are overly confident of their ability, relative to others, to substitute away from taxed goods.
{"title":"An inverse-Ramsey tax rule","authors":"Luca Micheletto , Dylan T. Moore , Daniel Reck , Joel Slemrod","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional optimal commodity tax analysis, dating back to Ramsey (1927), prescribes that to maximize welfare one should impose higher taxes on goods with lower demand elasticities. Yet policy makers do not stress minimizing efficiency costs as a desideratum. In this note we revisit the commodity tax problem, and show that the attractiveness of the Ramsey inverse-elasticity prescription can itself be inverted if the tax system is chosen – or at least strongly influenced – by taxpayers who are overly confident of their ability, relative to others, to substitute away from taxed goods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145418128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105498
Sara LaLumia
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) included provisions that reduce the share of filers who itemize deductions, raising the net-of-tax price of gifts to charity. Two such provisions are the near-doubling of the standard deduction and the introduction of a $10,000 cap on the deduction for state and local tax (SALT) payments. The effects of these provisions on taxpayer behavior were not uniform across geographic areas. In locations with initially low state and local taxes, where the $10,000 cap is not binding for many taxpayers, there were small declines in itemization rates. Areas with initially high SALT payments saw larger declines in itemization. This paper makes use of geographic variation to investigate whether TCJA provisions affected gifts received by charitable organizations. Analyzing organization-level data from IRS Form 990, I find that charitable organizations located in counties where the SALT cap is most binding experienced a 1.5 % relative decline in contributions after the tax change.
《减税与就业法案》（Tax Cuts and Jobs Act， TCJA）包括了一些条款，这些条款减少了逐项列出扣除项目的申报者所占的比例，从而提高了捐赠给慈善机构的净税价格。其中两项条款是将标准扣除额提高近一倍，以及对州和地方税（SALT）支付的扣除额设定1万美元的上限。这些规定对纳税人行为的影响在不同地理区域并不统一。在最初州税和地方税较低的地区，10,000美元的上限对许多纳税人没有约束力，逐项税率略有下降。最初SALT支付较高的地区的逐项分配下降幅度较大。本文利用地理差异来考察TCJA条款是否会影响慈善组织收到的捐赠。分析IRS表格990的组织层面数据，我发现，在SALT上限最具约束力的县，慈善组织在税收变化后的捐款相对下降了1.5%。
{"title":"The 2017 SALT cap reduced charitable contributions: Evidence from form 990 data","authors":"Sara LaLumia","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) included provisions that reduce the share of filers who itemize deductions, raising the net-of-tax price of gifts to charity. Two such provisions are the near-doubling of the standard deduction and the introduction of a $10,000 cap on the deduction for state and local tax (SALT) payments. The effects of these provisions on taxpayer behavior were not uniform across geographic areas. In locations with initially low state and local taxes, where the $10,000 cap is not binding for many taxpayers, there were small declines in itemization rates. Areas with initially high SALT payments saw larger declines in itemization. This paper makes use of geographic variation to investigate whether TCJA provisions affected gifts received by charitable organizations. Analyzing organization-level data from IRS Form 990, I find that charitable organizations located in counties where the SALT cap is most binding experienced a 1.5 % relative decline in contributions after the tax change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105498"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145364449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105500
Nathaniel Neligh
Efficient provision of public goods continues to be a major problem of interest in economics. In situations where government-level intervention is not practical, but some information about participants is available, several mechanisms exist which can implement fair and efficient Lindahl (1958) equilibrium outcomes. However, existing Lindahl mechanisms do not allow for strategy-free implementation and require specific informational assumptions that may not always be realistic. We propose a minimum-offer Lindahl mechanism (MOLM) where players are given Lindahl cost shares and asked to suggest total provision levels. The lowest suggestion is implemented, and players pay an amount proportional to their cost share. The MOLM implements the Lindahl outcome in weakly dominant strategies and can work under informational conditions not covered by previous mechanisms. For example, the MOLM requires knowledge of the Lindahl prices to implement but not knowledge of the efficient provision level, while the widely-used provision point mechanism (PPM) requires the reverse.
{"title":"A minimum-offer Lindahl mechanism for the provision of public goods","authors":"Nathaniel Neligh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efficient provision of public goods continues to be a major problem of interest in economics. In situations where government-level intervention is not practical, but some information about participants is available, several mechanisms exist which can implement fair and efficient Lindahl (1958) equilibrium outcomes. However, existing Lindahl mechanisms do not allow for strategy-free implementation and require specific informational assumptions that may not always be realistic. We propose a minimum-offer Lindahl mechanism (MOLM) where players are given Lindahl cost shares and asked to suggest total provision levels. The lowest suggestion is implemented, and players pay an amount proportional to their cost share. The MOLM implements the Lindahl outcome in weakly dominant strategies and can work under informational conditions not covered by previous mechanisms. For example, the MOLM requires knowledge of the Lindahl prices to implement but not knowledge of the efficient provision level, while the widely-used provision point mechanism (PPM) requires the reverse.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145334234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105493
Michael Love
Partnerships (including LLCs) account for more than one-third of US business profits. A key feature they offer owners is the ability to allocate income and losses flexibly across partners rather than strictly in proportion to equity shares, which can reduce taxes if partners have different tax situations. Using anonymized tax records, I estimate over $200 billion of net tax benefits associated with this flexibility over stricter allocations of the same income between 2011–2020. These benefits are narrowly concentrated in only 6 % of firms, generally larger and more complex firms, while the vast majority of firms—especially smaller operating firms—do not utilize this flexibility at all. I also estimate $100 billion of net tax benefits from carried interest and similar profit interest arrangements relative to ordinary compensation of service partners between 2011–2020.
{"title":"Who benefits from partnership flexibility?","authors":"Michael Love","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105493","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105493","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Partnerships (including LLCs) account for more than one-third of US business profits. A key feature they offer owners is the ability to allocate income and losses flexibly across partners rather than strictly in proportion to equity shares, which can reduce taxes if partners have different tax situations. Using anonymized tax records, I estimate over $200 billion of net tax benefits associated with this flexibility over stricter allocations of the same income between 2011–2020. These benefits are narrowly concentrated in only 6 % of firms, generally larger and more complex firms, while the vast majority of firms—especially smaller operating firms—do not utilize this flexibility at all. I also estimate $100 billion of net tax benefits from carried interest and similar profit interest arrangements relative to ordinary compensation of service partners between 2011–2020.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145334233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105491
Matilde Giaccherini , Joanna Kopinska
We study the long-term effects of early-life exposure to low-dose radiation from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster on adult health and fertility outcomes. Exploiting exogenous variation in radioactive fallout across Italian municipalities, we construct a radiation exposure index and link it to administrative data on hospitalizations (2004–2016) and delivery certificates (2002–2019) for 18 birth cohorts (1976–1993). Women exposed in utero or during early childhood exhibit elevated rates of thyroid disorders, cancer, spontaneous abortions, and stillbirths in adulthood. These effects are not observed among those exposed later in childhood, pointing to heightened biological vulnerability during critical developmental windows. Comparable effects for men are found only for cancer, consistent with women’s greater susceptibility to thyroid dysfunction and higher diagnosis rates. We also uncover behavioral heterogeneity in realized exposure: municipalities with higher private avoidance costs and lower socioeconomic status suffered more severe health impacts. In contrast, political alignment with the national government did not predict compliance with safety advisories. Overall, our findings highlight the enduring health consequences of early-life environmental shocks and the role of behavioral frictions in amplifying biological risks.
{"title":"Fallout and health: Chernobyl’s legacy, early-life exposure, and protective behavior","authors":"Matilde Giaccherini , Joanna Kopinska","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the long-term effects of early-life exposure to low-dose radiation from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster on adult health and fertility outcomes. Exploiting exogenous variation in radioactive fallout across Italian municipalities, we construct a radiation exposure index and link it to administrative data on hospitalizations (2004–2016) and delivery certificates (2002–2019) for 18 birth cohorts (1976–1993). Women exposed in utero or during early childhood exhibit elevated rates of thyroid disorders, cancer, spontaneous abortions, and stillbirths in adulthood. These effects are not observed among those exposed later in childhood, pointing to heightened biological vulnerability during critical developmental windows. Comparable effects for men are found only for cancer, consistent with women’s greater susceptibility to thyroid dysfunction and higher diagnosis rates. We also uncover behavioral heterogeneity in realized exposure: municipalities with higher private avoidance costs and lower socioeconomic status suffered more severe health impacts. In contrast, political alignment with the national government did not predict compliance with safety advisories. Overall, our findings highlight the enduring health consequences of early-life environmental shocks and the role of behavioral frictions in amplifying biological risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105491"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105472
Victor Lavy , Genia Rachkovski , Omry Yoresh
Literature has shown that air pollution can have short- and long-term adverse effects on physiological and cognitive performance. In this study, we estimate the effect of increased pollution levels on the likelihood of accidents at construction sites, a significant factor related to productivity losses in the labor market. Using data from all construction sites and pollution monitoring stations in Israel, we find a strong and significant causal effect of nitrogen dioxide (NO), one of the primary air pollutants, on construction site accidents. We find that a 10-ppb increase in NO levels increases the likelihood of an accident by as much as 25 %. Importantly, our findings suggest that these effects are non-linear. While moderate pollution levels, according to EPA standards, compared to clean air levels, increase the likelihood of accidents by 138 %, unhealthy levels increase it by 377 %. We present a mechanism where the effect of pollution is exacerbated under conditions of high cognitive strain or reduced awareness. Finally, we perform a cost-benefit analysis, supported by a nonparametric estimation calculating the implied number of accidents due to NO exposure, and examine a potential welfare-improving policy to subsidize the closure of construction sites on highly polluted days.
{"title":"Heads up: Does air pollution cause workplace accidents?","authors":"Victor Lavy , Genia Rachkovski , Omry Yoresh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105472","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature has shown that air pollution can have short- and long-term adverse effects on physiological and cognitive performance. In this study, we estimate the effect of increased pollution levels on the likelihood of accidents at construction sites, a significant factor related to productivity losses in the labor market. Using data from all construction sites and pollution monitoring stations in Israel, we find a strong and significant causal effect of nitrogen dioxide (NO<span><math><msub><mspace></mspace><mrow><mtext>2</mtext></mrow></msub></math></span>), one of the primary air pollutants, on construction site accidents. We find that a 10-ppb increase in NO<span><math><msub><mspace></mspace><mrow><mtext>2</mtext></mrow></msub></math></span> levels increases the likelihood of an accident by as much as 25 %. Importantly, our findings suggest that these effects are non-linear. While moderate pollution levels, according to EPA standards, compared to clean air levels, increase the likelihood of accidents by 138 %, unhealthy levels increase it by 377 %. We present a mechanism where the effect of pollution is exacerbated under conditions of high cognitive strain or reduced awareness. Finally, we perform a cost-benefit analysis, supported by a nonparametric estimation calculating the implied number of accidents due to NO<span><math><msub><mspace></mspace><mrow><mtext>2</mtext></mrow></msub></math></span> exposure, and examine a potential welfare-improving policy to subsidize the closure of construction sites on highly polluted days.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 105472"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145236392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号