Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105216
David P. Brown , Lucija Muehlenbachs
To avoid electric-infrastructure-induced wildfires, millions of Californians had their power cut for hours to days at a time. We show that rooftop solar-plus-battery-storage systems increased in zip codes with the longest power outages. Rooftop solar panels alone will not help a household avert outages, but a solar-plus-battery-storage system will. Using this fact, we obtain a revealed-preference estimate of the willingness to pay for electricity reliability, the Value of Lost Load, a key parameter for electricity market design. Our estimate, with an average of $4,980/MWh, suggests California’s wildfire-prevention outages resulted in losses from foregone consumption of $406 million to residential electricity consumers.
{"title":"The value of electricity reliability: Evidence from battery adoption","authors":"David P. Brown , Lucija Muehlenbachs","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To avoid electric-infrastructure-induced wildfires, millions of Californians had their power cut for hours to days at a time. We show that rooftop solar-plus-battery-storage systems increased in zip codes with the longest power outages. Rooftop solar panels alone will not help a household avert outages, but a solar-plus-battery-storage system will. Using this fact, we obtain a revealed-preference estimate of the willingness to pay for electricity reliability, the Value of Lost Load, a key parameter for electricity market design. Our estimate, with an average of $4,980/MWh, suggests California’s wildfire-prevention outages resulted in losses from foregone consumption of $406 million to residential electricity consumers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105216"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105255
Zvonimir Bašić , Eugenio Verrina
We propose a simple utility framework and design a novel two-part experiment to study the relevance of personal norms across various economic games and settings. We show that personal norms — together with social norms and monetary payoff — are highly predictive of individuals’ behavior. Moreover, they are: (i) distinct from social norms across a series of economic contexts; (ii) robust to an exogenous increase in the salience of social norms; and (iii) complementary to social norms in predicting behavior. Our findings support personal norms as a key driver of economic behavior.
{"title":"Personal norms — and not only social norms — shape economic behavior","authors":"Zvonimir Bašić , Eugenio Verrina","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a simple utility framework and design a novel two-part experiment to study the relevance of personal norms across various economic games and settings. We show that personal norms — together with social norms and monetary payoff — are highly predictive of individuals’ behavior. Moreover, they are: (i) distinct from social norms across a series of economic contexts; (ii) robust to an exogenous increase in the salience of social norms; and (iii) complementary to social norms in predicting behavior. Our findings support personal norms as a key driver of economic behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105255"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105246
Abhijeet Singh , Petter Berg
Assessment-led school reforms are a central pillar of policy packages recommended to address low student achievement in developing countries. We use direct audit evidence to assess the truthfulness of official assessments in a reform that has tested over 6 million students annually since 2011 in the large Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. Comparing responses to the same test questions by the same students shows a doubling of reported achievement in administrative data versus independent tests. This difference is lower, within schools, in grades with multiple test booklets and external grading. Overall, in contexts with weak governance, interventions relying on test-based accountability appear unlikely to succeed without complementary investments to assure data integrity.
{"title":"Myths of official measurement: Limits to test-based education reforms with weak governance","authors":"Abhijeet Singh , Petter Berg","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessment-led school reforms are a central pillar of policy packages recommended to address low student achievement in developing countries. We use direct audit evidence to assess the truthfulness of official assessments in a reform that has tested over 6 million students annually since 2011 in the large Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. Comparing responses to the same test questions by the same students shows a doubling of reported achievement in administrative data versus independent tests. This difference is lower, within schools, in grades with multiple test booklets and external grading. Overall, in contexts with weak governance, interventions relying on test-based accountability appear unlikely to succeed without complementary investments to assure data integrity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105246"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In several countries, students who fail high-stakes exams at the end of high school are faced with the choice of retaking or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on the exam performance and various measures of the quality of received offers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by around 0.6 standard deviation. We also find that they obtain higher quality postsecondary offers, thanks to improved performance and more ambitious re-application choices.
{"title":"Do second chances pay off? Evidence from a natural experiment with low-achieving students","authors":"Aspasia Bizopoulou , Rigissa Megalokonomou , Ştefania Simion","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In several countries, students who fail high-stakes exams at the end of high school are faced with the choice of retaking or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on the exam performance and various measures of the quality of received offers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by around 0.6 standard deviation. We also find that they obtain higher quality postsecondary offers, thanks to improved performance and more ambitious re-application choices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105214"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105251
Mariela Dal Borgo
This paper examines how a shock to the distribution of federal transfers to Mexican municipalities affects their demand for long-term loans aimed at funding productive investments. Transfers are municipalities’ main source of debt payment and collateral. Using granular supervisory data, I find a positive effect on municipalities’ loan volume, normalized by the country’s total municipal loans, driven by obligations with private lenders. However, I find little or no average effect on take-up — despite many governments being unbanked —, repayment, or volume at the intensive margin. Governments with lower payment capacity and other preexisting debt are more sensitive to the shock. In particular, those with short-term debt are more likely to start borrowing from private lenders, while those with bonds turn to the development bank. The additional revenue mostly funds current rather than capital expenditures. These findings highlight that the policy goal of deepening subnational credit markets in developing countries must also address weaknesses in local investment capacities.
{"title":"Effect of a transfer shock on subnational debt: Micro evidence from Mexico","authors":"Mariela Dal Borgo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how a shock to the distribution of federal transfers to Mexican municipalities affects their demand for long-term loans aimed at funding productive investments. Transfers are municipalities’ main source of debt payment and collateral. Using granular supervisory data, I find a positive effect on municipalities’ loan volume, normalized by the country’s total municipal loans, driven by obligations with private lenders. However, I find little or no average effect on take-up — despite many governments being unbanked —, repayment, or volume at the intensive margin. Governments with lower payment capacity and other preexisting debt are more sensitive to the shock. In particular, those with short-term debt are more likely to start borrowing from private lenders, while those with bonds turn to the development bank. The additional revenue mostly funds current rather than capital expenditures. These findings highlight that the policy goal of deepening subnational credit markets in developing countries must also address weaknesses in local investment capacities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105251"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105250
Caio Machado
How should policymakers distribute firm subsidies when supply shocks hit some firms and spill over to others through demand externalities? I propose a model to answer that question. The optimal policy depends on the severity of the supply shock and the degree of substitution across goods. If shocks are not too large or widespread, it is optimal to subsidize only firms not hit by supply shocks. For larger and more widespread shocks, the results depend on the elasticity of substitution: If complementarities across the varieties produced by firms are high, firms facing supply shocks should be prioritized, and the opposite is true if complementarities are low.
{"title":"Uneven recessions and optimal firm subsidies","authors":"Caio Machado","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105250","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105250","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How should policymakers distribute firm subsidies when supply shocks hit some firms and spill over to others through demand externalities? I propose a model to answer that question. The optimal policy depends on the severity of the supply shock and the degree of substitution across goods. If shocks are not too large or widespread, it is optimal to subsidize only firms not hit by supply shocks. For larger and more widespread shocks, the results depend on the elasticity of substitution: If complementarities across the varieties produced by firms are high, firms facing supply shocks should be prioritized, and the opposite is true if complementarities are low.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105250"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105243
Jorge García-Hombrados , Marta Martínez-Matute , Carmen Villa
This paper assesses the effect of the creation of specialised intimate partner violence (IPV) courts on the reporting of IPV, and the incidence of IPV homicides in Spain. We find that the opening of a specialised IPV court increases the reporting of IPV by nearly 122 offences per 100,000 inhabitants, or 28% in the preferred specification. The rise in reporting is primarily driven by an increase in the reporting of moderate offences. We do not find conclusive evidence on the effects of specialised courts on IPV homicides.
{"title":"Specialised courts and the reporting of intimate partner violence: Evidence from Spain","authors":"Jorge García-Hombrados , Marta Martínez-Matute , Carmen Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper assesses the effect of the creation of specialised intimate partner violence (IPV) courts on the reporting of IPV, and the incidence of IPV homicides in Spain. We find that the opening of a specialised IPV court increases the reporting of IPV by nearly 122 offences per 100,000 inhabitants, or 28% in the preferred specification. The rise in reporting is primarily driven by an increase in the reporting of moderate offences. We do not find conclusive evidence on the effects of specialised courts on IPV homicides.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105243"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105248
Jan Gromadzki
I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of an exceptionally large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the effects of the monthly transfer in a difference-in-differences design. The transfer had no short-term effects but caused sizable negative medium-term effects on household labor supply. In the medium run, population estimates indicate that for every extra 100 dollars in monthly child benefit transfers households received, they reduced their after-tax earnings by 25 dollars, spent 32 dollars on consumption, and saved 43 dollars. These negative labor supply effects are much larger and much more precisely estimated among households with low socioeconomic status. Additional evidence shows that the program had a positive impact on investments in human capital and home production efficiency.
{"title":"Labor supply effects of a universal cash transfer","authors":"Jan Gromadzki","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of an exceptionally large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the effects of the monthly transfer in a difference-in-differences design. The transfer had no short-term effects but caused sizable negative medium-term effects on household labor supply. In the medium run, population estimates indicate that for every extra 100 dollars in monthly child benefit transfers households received, they reduced their after-tax earnings by 25 dollars, spent 32 dollars on consumption, and saved 43 dollars. These negative labor supply effects are much larger and much more precisely estimated among households with low socioeconomic status. Additional evidence shows that the program had a positive impact on investments in human capital and home production efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105248"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105247
Qing Liu , Ruosi Lu , Stephen Teng Sun , Meng Zhang
We investigate the unintended impact of minimum wage increases on workplace safety. Using establishment-level data from the United States and a cohort-based stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that large increases in minimum wages have significant adverse effects on workplace safety. Our findings indicate that, on average, a large minimum wage increase results in a 4.6 percent increase in the total case rate. Event study estimates show that this adverse effect persists in the medium run. Furthermore, we find a more salient effect for firms more likely to be financially constrained or subject to a higher labor market rigidity in firing workers. We provide suggestive evidence that small minimum wage increases might reduce injury rates, highlighting the potential heterogeneity in the impact of minimum wage changes. We do not find evidence that capital-labor substitution could be behind the findings.
{"title":"Unintended workplace safety consequences of minimum wages","authors":"Qing Liu , Ruosi Lu , Stephen Teng Sun , Meng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the unintended impact of minimum wage increases on workplace safety. Using establishment-level data from the United States and a cohort-based stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that large increases in minimum wages have significant adverse effects on workplace safety. Our findings indicate that, on average, a large minimum wage increase results in a 4.6 percent increase in the total case rate. Event study estimates show that this adverse effect persists in the medium run. Furthermore, we find a more salient effect for firms more likely to be financially constrained or subject to a higher labor market rigidity in firing workers. We provide suggestive evidence that small minimum wage increases might reduce injury rates, highlighting the potential heterogeneity in the impact of minimum wage changes. We do not find evidence that capital-labor substitution could be behind the findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105247"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142423882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105242
Luca Paolo Merlino , Max Friedrich Steinhardt , Liam Wren-Lewis
This paper exploits quasi-random variation in the share of Black students across cohorts within US schools to investigate whether childhood interracial contact impacts the residential choices of Whites when they are adults. We find that, 20 years after exposure, Whites who had more Black peers of the same gender in their grade go on to live in census tracts with more Black residents. Further investigation suggests that this result is unlikely to be driven by economic opportunities or social networks. Instead, the effect on residential choice appears to come from a change in preferences among Whites.
{"title":"The long run impact of childhood interracial contact on residential segregation","authors":"Luca Paolo Merlino , Max Friedrich Steinhardt , Liam Wren-Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits quasi-random variation in the share of Black students across cohorts within US schools to investigate whether childhood interracial contact impacts the residential choices of Whites when they are adults. We find that, 20 years after exposure, Whites who had more Black peers of the same gender in their grade go on to live in census tracts with more Black residents. Further investigation suggests that this result is unlikely to be driven by economic opportunities or social networks. Instead, the effect on residential choice appears to come from a change in preferences among Whites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 105242"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142423881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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