Pub Date : 2025-07-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105444
Nils aus dem Moore , Johannes Brehm , Henri Gruhl
Does a carbon tax stimulate low-carbon innovation in the transport sector? We exploit an environmental tax reform in Sweden that introduced both a carbon and a value-added tax on transport fuels. Synthetic control estimates consistently find that the tax reform caused large and significant increases in low-carbon patents. We provide suggestive evidence that the carbon tax drives the effect while fuel price changes with comparable magnitude did not significantly affect low-carbon innovation. Our findings suggest that salient carbon prices may foster low-carbon innovation more effectively than fuel price elasticity estimates suggest.
{"title":"Driving innovation? Carbon tax effects in the Swedish transport sector","authors":"Nils aus dem Moore , Johannes Brehm , Henri Gruhl","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does a carbon tax stimulate low-carbon innovation in the transport sector? We exploit an environmental tax reform in Sweden that introduced both a carbon and a value-added tax on transport fuels. Synthetic control estimates consistently find that the tax reform caused large and significant increases in low-carbon patents. We provide suggestive evidence that the carbon tax drives the effect while fuel price changes with comparable magnitude did not significantly affect low-carbon innovation. Our findings suggest that salient carbon prices may foster low-carbon innovation more effectively than fuel price elasticity estimates suggest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105444"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105445
Kris De Jaegher , Michal Šoltés , Vítězslav Titl
Public procurement contracts require frequent renegotiation. Exploiting a natural experiment induced by the implementation of an EU policy in the Czech Republic, we examine the effect of easing renegotiation rules on the outcomes of public procurement. We document that the policy decreased winning bids but did not change the final price, as post-award renegotiations offset the initial bid reductions. We find no evidence of a decline in the quality of the delivered procurement projects. We rationalize our findings using a stylized theoretical model.
{"title":"Easing renegotiation rules in public procurement: Evidence from a policy reform","authors":"Kris De Jaegher , Michal Šoltés , Vítězslav Titl","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public procurement contracts require frequent renegotiation. Exploiting a natural experiment induced by the implementation of an EU policy in the Czech Republic, we examine the effect of easing renegotiation rules on the outcomes of public procurement. We document that the policy decreased winning bids but did not change the final price, as post-award renegotiations offset the initial bid reductions. We find no evidence of a decline in the quality of the delivered procurement projects. We rationalize our findings using a stylized theoretical model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105445"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105443
Maulik Jagnani , Meera Mahadevan
This paper provides the first plausibly causal evidence that women leaders improve environmental outcomes. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a female politician over a male politician decreases crop fire incidence and biomass-related particulate emissions in India. These effects are concentrated during the harvest and post-harvest months in districts that follow fire-suited cropping patterns. To understand mechanisms, we survey 424 male and female village council leaders in Punjab, the Indian state with the highest per capita incidence of crop fires. We find women leaders are more likely to consider crop fires a serious issue, weigh their impacts on child health, support regulations to decrease crop fire incidence, and implement specific crop residue management policies like private residue collection or encouraging crop residue use as fodder.
{"title":"Women leaders improve environmental outcomes: Evidence from crop fires in India","authors":"Maulik Jagnani , Meera Mahadevan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105443","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105443","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides the first plausibly causal evidence that women leaders improve environmental outcomes. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a female politician over a male politician decreases crop fire incidence and biomass-related particulate emissions in India. These effects are concentrated during the harvest and post-harvest months in districts that follow fire-suited cropping patterns. To understand mechanisms, we survey 424 male and female village council leaders in Punjab, the Indian state with the highest per capita incidence of crop fires. We find women leaders are more likely to consider crop fires a serious issue, weigh their impacts on child health, support regulations to decrease crop fire incidence, and implement specific crop residue management policies like private residue collection or encouraging crop residue use as fodder.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105443"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105437
Brooke Helppie-McFall, Eric Parolin, Basit Zafar
This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.
{"title":"Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market","authors":"Brooke Helppie-McFall, Eric Parolin, Basit Zafar","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105437","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105437"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144557411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105422
Jeffrey T. Denning , Lesley J. Turner
This paper documents several facts about graduate program graduation rates using administrative data covering public and nonprofit graduate students in Texas. Only 58 % of students entering a graduate program in 2004 graduated within 6 years. Between the 2004 and 2013 entering cohorts, graduate student completion rates grew by 10 percentage points. Graduation rates vary widely by field of study, ranging from an average of 81 % for law programs to 53 % for education programs. We also find large differences in graduation rates between institutions. On average, 72 % of students who entered programs in flagship public universities graduated in 6 years compared to only 57 % of those who entered programs in non-research intensive (non-R1) institutions. Graduate students who do not complete may face negative consequences due to lower average earnings and substantial levels of student debt.
{"title":"The graduation part II: Graduate program graduation rates","authors":"Jeffrey T. Denning , Lesley J. Turner","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105422","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105422","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper documents several facts about graduate program graduation rates using administrative data covering public and nonprofit graduate students in Texas. Only 58 % of students entering a graduate program in 2004 graduated within 6 years. Between the 2004 and 2013 entering cohorts, graduate student completion rates grew by 10 percentage points. Graduation rates vary widely by field of study, ranging from an average of 81 % for law programs to 53 % for education programs. We also find large differences in graduation rates between institutions. On average, 72 % of students who entered programs in flagship public universities graduated in 6 years compared to only 57 % of those who entered programs in non-research intensive (non-R1) institutions. Graduate students who do not complete may face negative consequences due to lower average earnings and substantial levels of student debt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105422"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105439
Hannah Bae , Katherine Meckel , Maggie Shi
Coverage for dependents is a standard feature of employer-sponsored insurance. While prior work shows that employees trade off job mobility for their own coverage, less is known about the intra-family spillovers of dependent coverage on parental labor supply. We study this question using a large panel of employer-based insurance claims that links dependent enrollment to a proxy for parental job retention. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits a sharp change in the duration of dependent eligibility by birth month under the Affordable Care Act. We find that additional dependent insurance eligibility increases both dependent take-up and parental job retention. This “job lock” effect is strongest among parents more likely to be on the margin of a job exit, for families that place higher value on dependent coverage, and employees of firms offering a broader range of insurance options.
{"title":"Dependent insurance coverage and parental job lock: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act","authors":"Hannah Bae , Katherine Meckel , Maggie Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coverage for dependents is a standard feature of employer-sponsored insurance. While prior work shows that employees trade off job mobility for their own coverage, less is known about the intra-family spillovers of dependent coverage on parental labor supply. We study this question using a large panel of employer-based insurance claims that links dependent enrollment to a proxy for parental job retention. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits a sharp change in the duration of dependent eligibility by birth month under the Affordable Care Act. We find that additional dependent insurance eligibility increases both dependent take-up and parental job retention. This “job lock” effect is strongest among parents more likely to be on the margin of a job exit, for families that place higher value on dependent coverage, and employees of firms offering a broader range of insurance options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105439"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105424
Taeho Kim
Body-worn cameras (BWCs) have emerged as a crucial reform to restore police legitimacy. However, there remains limited evidence on the conditions under which BWCs reduce use of force and affect broader agency-wide outcomes. Using a quasi-experimental event study design, I analyze data from 593 U.S. police agencies to estimate the effects of BWC adoption. I find that reductions in police-involved homicides are heterogeneous—concentrated in regions with higher prior levels of such incidents and in agencies with stricter activation requirements, with no measurable change in low-incident regions or agencies with weaker policies. This study also provides the first evidence on agency-wide outcomes, finding no significant trade-offs in overall arrest or crime rates. These findings offer insight into when BWCs are most likely to enhance police accountability and performance.
{"title":"Facilitating police reform: Body cameras, police-involved homicides, and law enforcement outcomes","authors":"Taeho Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105424","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Body-worn cameras (BWCs) have emerged as a crucial reform to restore police legitimacy. However, there remains limited evidence on the conditions under which BWCs reduce use of force and affect broader agency-wide outcomes. Using a quasi-experimental event study design, I analyze data from 593 U.S. police agencies to estimate the effects of BWC adoption. I find that reductions in police-involved homicides are heterogeneous—concentrated in regions with higher prior levels of such incidents and in agencies with stricter activation requirements, with no measurable change in low-incident regions or agencies with weaker policies. This study also provides the first evidence on agency-wide outcomes, finding no significant trade-offs in overall arrest or crime rates. These findings offer insight into when BWCs are most likely to enhance police accountability and performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105424"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144514283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105378
Sarah Waldfogel
A growing share of Americans live in electorally lopsided congressional districts, potentially depressing their political participation. Unlike with voting, there are no place-based restrictions on giving, raising the question of whether individuals disengaged by lopsided home districts find voice through greater non-local giving. I explore this using the post-2010 redistricting, which reassigned individuals to more, or less, competitive districts. When an individual’s district becomes exogenously less competitive, she donates more out of district to competitive races. Givers regard non-local giving as a substitute for local political participation, increasing their out-of-district gifts by , and reducing their within-district gifts by , for every one p.p. increase in their home district’s lopsidedness.
{"title":"Recovering voice through out-of-district donations","authors":"Sarah Waldfogel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing share of Americans live in electorally lopsided congressional districts, potentially depressing their political participation. Unlike with voting, there are no place-based restrictions on giving, raising the question of whether individuals disengaged by lopsided home districts find voice through greater non-local giving. I explore this using the post-2010 redistricting, which reassigned individuals to more, or less, competitive districts. When an individual’s district becomes exogenously less competitive, she donates more out of district to competitive races. Givers regard non-local giving as a substitute for local political participation, increasing their out-of-district gifts by <span><math><mrow><mi>$</mi><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>40</mn></mrow></math></span>, and reducing their within-district gifts by <span><math><mrow><mi>$</mi><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>75</mn></mrow></math></span>, for every one p.p. increase in their home district’s lopsidedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105378"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144502513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105435
Norma B. Coe , David A. Rosenkranz
Combining capitation with a cap on health care providers’ average revenue can reduce allocative inefficiency. But the cap may be undercut by health care providers who churn their patient censuses. We investigate this possibility in the U.S. hospice industry, where Medicare pays hospice programs fixed daily rates but caps their average annual revenue. By leveraging variation generated by the cap’s nonlinear design and the transition between fiscal years, we find that programs on track to exceed the cap raise enrollment rates by 5.8 % and live discharge rates by 4.3 % in the fourth quarter. But this churning falls far short of eliminating their financial penalties: it amounts to 10 % of an average program’s excess revenue at most. Marginal enrollees have longer remaining lifetimes and more fragmented hospice spells on average, suggesting weaker intrinsic demand for hospice care. We discuss the cap’s implications for market structure.
{"title":"Provider payment incentives: Evidence from the U.S. hospice industry","authors":"Norma B. Coe , David A. Rosenkranz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Combining capitation with a cap on health care providers’ average revenue can reduce allocative inefficiency. But the cap may be undercut by health care providers who churn their patient censuses. We investigate this possibility in the U.S. hospice industry, where Medicare pays hospice programs fixed daily rates but caps their average annual revenue. By leveraging variation generated by the cap’s nonlinear design and the transition between fiscal years, we find that programs on track to exceed the cap raise enrollment rates by 5.8 % and live discharge rates by 4.3 % in the fourth quarter. But this churning falls far short of eliminating their financial penalties: it amounts to 10 % of an average program’s excess revenue at most. Marginal enrollees have longer remaining lifetimes and more fragmented hospice spells on average, suggesting weaker intrinsic demand for hospice care. We discuss the cap’s implications for market structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105435"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105423
Orazio P. Attanasio , Áureo de Paula , Alessandro Toppeta
This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of socio-emotional skills during childhood, using data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) in the United Kingdom. This dataset enables us to measure two dimensions of socio-emotional development: internalising and externalising skills. More importantly, we can use multiple measures of parents’ skills collected during both their childhood and their adulthood. Whereas parent–child skills are strongly related when both are measured contemporaneously, they remain correlated when both are measured in childhood, with a stronger transmission observed from mothers to their children. The BCS70 data finally enable us to estimate the correlation between the grandmother’s internalising skill and the grandchildren’s skills, after accounting for parental skills.
{"title":"Intergenerational mobility in socio-emotional skills","authors":"Orazio P. Attanasio , Áureo de Paula , Alessandro Toppeta","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of socio-emotional skills during childhood, using data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) in the United Kingdom. This dataset enables us to measure two dimensions of socio-emotional development: internalising and externalising skills. More importantly, we can use multiple measures of parents’ skills collected during both their childhood and their adulthood. Whereas parent–child skills are strongly related when both are measured contemporaneously, they remain correlated when both are measured in childhood, with a stronger transmission observed from mothers to their children. The BCS70 data finally enable us to estimate the correlation between the grandmother’s internalising skill and the grandchildren’s skills, after accounting for parental skills.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 105423"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144481541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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