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Paving the road to re-election 为连任铺平道路
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105228
Camille Boudot-Reddy , André Butler

The prevailing view in the economic literature is that voters are particularly myopic, encouraging governments to leverage short-term re-election strategies. Under such conditions, public capital investment with long-term rewards – despite its central role in the process of sustained economic development – may be neglected. In the context of India’s rural road construction programme, this study evaluates the role which large-scale public infrastructure initiatives have on the electoral accountability mechanism. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design with newly-digitised village-level voting outcomes from the 2014 general election, the results provide evidence of electoral support attributed to the political alliance which spearheaded the programme. This support is sustained over two electoral cycles, with significant spillover effects in villages within 2 km of a newly built road.

经济文献中的主流观点认为,选民特别近视,鼓励政府利用短期的连任战略。在这种情况下,尽管具有长期回报的公共资本投资在经济持续发展过程中发挥着核心作用,但却可能被忽视。本研究以印度农村公路建设项目为背景,评估了大规模公共基础设施建设项目对选举问责机制的影响。利用 2014 年大选中新数字化的村级投票结果,采用模糊回归不连续设计,结果提供了带头实施该计划的政治联盟获得选举支持的证据。这种支持持续了两个选举周期,并在新建道路 2 公里范围内的村庄产生了显著的溢出效应。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of monitoring on politicians’ attendance: Evidence from the Swiss Upper House 监督对政治家出席会议的影响:来自瑞士上议院的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105235
Katharina E. Hofer , Mariana Lopes da Fonseca

In 2014, the Swiss Upper House switched from voting by show of hands to an electronic voting system, where individual decisions on specific exogenously defined vote types are published automatically. We leverage this update in monitoring technology for select votes to identify the impact of monitoring on politicians’ attendance within a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences methodology. Relying on video recordings of all sessions of the 49th Upper House legislature (2011–2015), we determine pre- and post-reform attendance rates during all votes and compare the change in attendance between votes affected and unaffected by the reform. Monitoring has a positive and significant effect on attendance particularly among legislators running for reelection, as compared to those retiring at the end of the term.

2014 年,瑞士上议院从举手表决改为电子投票系统,在该系统中,关于特定外生定义投票类型的个人决定会自动公布。我们利用这一针对特定投票的监督技术更新,通过准实验差分法确定监督对政治家出席率的影响。根据第 49 届上议院立法机构所有会议(2011-2015 年)的视频记录,我们确定了改革前和改革后所有投票的出席率,并比较了受改革影响和不受改革影响的投票的出席率变化。与任期结束时退休的议员相比,监督对竞选连任的议员的出席率有积极而显著的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Listen to her: Gender differences in information diffusion within the household 听她说家庭内部信息传播的性别差异
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105213
Dietmar Fehr , Johanna Mollerstrom , Ricardo Perez-Truglia

We study how economic information diffuses within the household, leveraging an information-provision experiment with a representative sample of households from Germany. A random sample of household members received information about their household’s position in the income distribution. When provided with information directly, there are no gender differences in how individuals update their beliefs. However, we observe significant gender disparities in the diffusion of information within the household. Specifically, when only the husband receives the information, it influences the wife’s beliefs; however, when only the wife receives the information, it does not affect the husband’s beliefs.

我们通过对德国具有代表性的家庭样本进行信息提供实验,研究了经济信息如何在家庭内部扩散。随机抽样的家庭成员接受了有关其家庭在收入分配中的地位的信息。在直接获得信息的情况下,个体在如何更新自己的信念方面没有性别差异。然而,我们观察到在家庭内部传播信息时存在明显的性别差异。具体来说,当只有丈夫收到信息时,信息会影响妻子的信念;然而,当只有妻子收到信息时,信息不会影响丈夫的信念。
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引用次数: 0
The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages 企业对实行最低工资的价格和就业反应
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105236
Sebastian Link

This paper studies the price and employment responses of firms to the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany. Widely throughout the economy, affected firms responded by rapidly and frequently increasing prices without cutting employment. These decisions are strongly interrelated: Firms that increased prices relatively more often also showed a less negative employment response. The relative importance of both margins is associated with product market competition and the specific economic situation firms face when being treated. The empirically strong interdependence suggests that the employment effects of minimum wages may not be properly understood when abstracting from other adjustment margins.

本文研究了德国实行全国最低工资后企业在价格和就业方面的反应。在整个经济中,受影响的企业普遍采取了快速、频繁地提高价格而不削减就业的应对措施。这些决定密切相关:涨价频率相对较高的企业对就业的负面影响也较小。这两种幅度的相对重要性与产品市场竞争和企业在接受治疗时所面临的具体经济形势有关。从经验上看,两者之间存在着很强的相互依存关系,这表明,如果抽象出其他调整幅度,可能就无法正确理解最低工资对就业的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Do renewable energy investments create local jobs? 可再生能源投资能否为当地创造就业机会?
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105212
Natalia Fabra , Eduardo Gutiérrez , Aitor Lacuesta , Roberto Ramos

Globally, renewable energy projects often face local opposition despite the potential for job creation. Analyzing data from over 3,900 Spanish municipalities (2017–2021), we find that new jobs frequently do not remain in the host communities. Solar projects show stronger employment and unemployment multipliers compared to wind, reflecting differing task and skill requirements. Beyond the labor market impacts, residents benefit from the investments through greater public spending and increased per capita income. However, these effects are modest, particularly in the case of small to medium-sized plants.

在全球范围内,尽管可再生能源项目具有创造就业机会的潜力,但却经常遭到当地的反对。通过分析西班牙 3900 多个城市(2017-2021 年)的数据,我们发现新的工作岗位往往不会留在所在社区。与风能项目相比,太阳能项目显示出更强的就业和失业乘数,反映出不同的任务和技能要求。除了对劳动力市场的影响外,居民还能通过增加公共支出和人均收入从投资中获益。然而,这些影响并不明显,尤其是在中小型工厂中。
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引用次数: 0
Intrahousehold inequality and the joint taxation of household earnings 家庭内部的不平等和家庭收入的联合征税
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105208
Cassiano B. Alves , Carlos E. da Costa , Felipe Lobel , Humberto Moreira

We derive the optimal joint-income tax schedule for couples, focusing on the distinction between interpersonal and inter-household inequality. Households are composed of two spouses with possibly unequal access to the family’s economic resources. Individual-oriented utilitarianism typically leads to a misalignment between the households’ and the government’s objectives, a phenomenon termed dissonance by Apps and Rees (1988). The traditional ABC formula must be amended by including a Pigouvian term to correct for dissonance. Under general conditions, the effect of dissonance on marginal taxes is ambiguous; its sign depends on whether the less powerful spouse’s marginal contribution to household earnings is less than, or greater than, her marginal entitlement to household consumption. Assuming identical iso-elastic preferences, the multidimensional heterogeneity collapses into a single-dimensional index, preserving the single-crossing property. This simplification enables us to solve (Mirrlees, 1971)’s multidimensional program and quantitatively assess the size and sign of the Pigouvian term, which is positive across all income levels, leading to higher marginal tax rates.

我们以人与人之间的不平等和家庭与家庭之间的不平等之间的区别为重点,推导出夫妻共同收入的最优税率表。家庭由配偶双方组成,他们在获取家庭经济资源方面可能存在不平等。以个人为导向的功利主义通常会导致家庭目标与政府目标的不一致,这种现象被 Apps 和 Rees(1988 年)称为不协调。必须对传统的 ABC 公式进行修正,加入一个 Pigouvian 项来纠正失调。在一般情况下,失调对边际税收的影响是模糊的;其符号取决于权力较小的配偶对家庭收入的边际贡献是小于还是大于她对家庭消费的边际权利。假设具有相同的等弹性偏好,多维异质性就会简化为单维指数,从而保留了单交叉属性。这种简化使我们能够求解(Mirrlees,1971 年)的多维程序,并定量评估皮古维项的大小和符号。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s economic empowerment and intimate partner violence 赋予妇女经济权力与亲密伴侣暴力
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105211
Sanna Bergvall

This study explores the relationship between women’s economic empowerment and intimate partner violence (IPV), measured as women’s hospital visits for assault. Using longitudinal Swedish administrative data, I proxy women’s economic empowerment with a measure of potential relative earnings of married spouses caused by local changes in gender-specific labour demand. The findings reveal that an increase in potential relative earnings increases the probability of women’s hospital visits for injuries caused by assault, and the effect is particularly pronounced for women with low baseline bargaining power. Furthermore, exploiting detailed information on type of hospital visit, diagnosis and medical actions taken at the hospital, I show that the increase in hospital visits for assault is, at least in part, driven by an increase in care-seeking for IPV-related injuries rather than an increase in IPV itself.

本研究探讨了妇女的经济赋权与亲密伴侣暴力(IPV)之间的关系,亲密伴侣暴力是指妇女因受到攻击而到医院就诊。通过使用瑞典的纵向行政数据,我用当地对不同性别劳动力需求的变化所导致的已婚配偶潜在相对收入来衡量妇女的经济赋权。研究结果表明,潜在相对收入的增加会增加妇女因袭击受伤而到医院就诊的概率,这种影响对谈判能力基线较低的妇女尤为明显。此外,利用医院就诊类型、诊断和在医院采取的医疗措施等详细信息,我发现因袭击受伤而去医院就诊的人数增加,至少部分原因是因 IPV 相关伤害而寻求护理的人数增加,而不是 IPV 本身的增加。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal default options 最佳默认选项
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105203
B. Douglas Bernheim , Jonas Mueller-Gastell

Previous studies of optimal default options demonstrate that either opt-out minimization or maximization is optimal under restrictive conditions. We obtain a general characterization of the solution by studying optimal defaults when one of the problem’s parameters approaches a limiting value. We interpret these “asymptotic optima” as approximate optima for non-limiting cases and justify this interpretation through numerical simulations. When the designer and choosers agree about the activity’s value, simple forms of weighted opt-out minimization are asymptotically optimal. Additional results encompass Pigouvian fees, normative ambiguity, and cases in which the designer and choosers disagree about the activity’s value.

以往对最优默认选项的研究表明,在限制条件下,选择退出最小化或最大化都是最优的。我们通过研究当问题的一个参数接近极限值时的最优默认值,获得了解决方案的一般特征。我们将这些 "渐近最优 "解释为非极限情况下的近似最优,并通过数值模拟证明了这一解释的正确性。当设计者和选择者就活动价值达成一致时,简单形式的加权选择退出最小化就是渐近最优的。其他结果还包括 Pigouvian 费用、规范模糊性以及设计者和选择者对活动价值存在分歧的情况。
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引用次数: 0
The “Privatization” of municipal debt 市政债务的 "私有化
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105156
Ivan T. Ivanov , Tom Zimmermann

We study the determinants of local governments’ reliance on bank loans using granular data from the Federal Reserve. Governments that are larger, riskier, rely on historically stable revenue sources, or have higher spending relative to revenues are more likely to borrow from banks. Declines in revenues, reductions in bond market access, and relationships with financial advisers and underwriters all strongly predict higher bank loan reliance. While resemblance between bank loans and bonds is limited, loans afford governments significant financial flexibility not otherwise available in the municipal bond market. The frequent loan renegotiation and credit line use are both highly responsive to changes in credit quality, thereby tailoring debt contracts to changes in government fundamentals. The largest entities find this flexibility most useful with nearly 45% of entities in the top revenue quintile obtaining a bank loan by 2017.

我们利用美联储的详细数据研究了地方政府依赖银行贷款的决定因素。规模较大、风险较高、依赖历史上稳定的收入来源或支出相对于收入较高的政府更有可能向银行贷款。收入减少、进入债券市场的机会减少以及与财务顾问和承销商的关系都强烈预示着政府更依赖银行贷款。虽然银行贷款和债券之间的相似性有限,但贷款为政府提供了极大的财务灵活性,这是市政债券市场所不具备的。频繁的贷款重新谈判和信贷额度的使用都能对信贷质量的变化做出高度反应,从而使债务合同适应政府基本面的变化。最大的实体发现这种灵活性最为有用,到 2017 年,收入最高的五分之一实体中有近 45% 获得了银行贷款。
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引用次数: 0
How does parental divorce affect children’s long-term outcomes? 父母离婚如何影响子女的长期结果?
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105201
Wolfgang Frimmel , Martin Halla , Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Many papers report a negative association between parental divorce and child outcomes. To provide evidence whether this correlation is causal, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in the extent of gender balance in fathers’ workplaces. Fathers who encounter more women in their relevant age–occupation–group at work are more likely to divorce. This result is conditional on the overall proportion of female employees in a firm and on detailed industry affiliation. Parental divorce has persistent, and mostly negative effects on children that differ between boys and girls. Treated boys have lower levels of educational attainment, worse labor market outcomes and are more likely to die early. Treated girls also have lower levels of educational attainment, but they are also more likely to have children at an early age (especially in their teens). However, treated girls lose less in terms of employment. This could be a direct consequence of teenage motherhood, which initiates early entry into the labor market.

许多论文报告称,父母离婚与子女的结果之间存在负相关。为了证明这种相关性是否是因果关系,我们利用了父亲工作场所性别平衡程度的特异性变化。如果父亲在工作中遇到的相关年龄职业组别中女性较多,那么他们更有可能离婚。这一结果取决于企业中女性员工的总体比例和详细的行业归属。父母离婚会对子女产生持续的、大多是负面的影响,这种影响在男孩和女孩之间存在差异。受离婚影响的男孩受教育程度较低,劳动力市场结果较差,更有可能早逝。受离婚影响的女孩受教育程度也较低,但她们也更有可能早育(尤其是在十几岁时)。然而,接受治疗的女孩在就业方面的损失较小。这可能是未成年母亲早早进入劳动力市场的直接后果。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Public Economics
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