Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101732
Michael Minnis , Andrew G. Sutherland , Felix W. Vetter
Using a dataset covering 3 million commercial borrower financial statements, we document a substantial, nearly monotonic decline in banks’ use of attested financial statements (AFS) in lending over the past two decades. Two market forces help explain this trend. First, technological advances provide lenders with access to a growing array of borrower information sources that can substitute for AFS. Second, banks are increasingly competing with nonbank lenders that rely less on AFS in screening and monitoring. Our results illustrate how technology adoption and changes in credit market structure can render AFS less efficient than alternative information sources for screening and monitoring.
{"title":"Financial statements not required","authors":"Michael Minnis , Andrew G. Sutherland , Felix W. Vetter","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a dataset covering 3 million commercial borrower financial statements, we document a substantial, nearly monotonic decline in banks’ use of attested financial statements (AFS) in lending over the past two decades. Two market forces help explain this trend. First, technological advances provide lenders with access to a growing array of borrower information sources that can substitute for AFS. Second, banks are increasingly competing with nonbank lenders that rely less on AFS in screening and monitoring. Our results illustrate how technology adoption and changes in credit market structure can render AFS less efficient than alternative information sources for screening and monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101732"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142045899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101720
Stephen Glaeser, Mark Lang
We review the accounting literature on innovation, focusing on the economic attributes of innovation that collectively differentiate innovation from other assets: novelty, nonrivalry, and partial excludability. These attributes help innovation drive economic growth but create unique information-based challenges that accounting information and researchers are well suited to address. We discuss the definition and measurement of innovation and highlight common mistakes researchers make when measuring innovation and when using sources of plausibly exogenous variation. We then review the accounting literatures on the disclosure, management, financial reporting, taxation, and contracting and financing of innovation. For each of these literatures we identify challenges and opportunities for future research.
{"title":"Measuring innovation and navigating its unique information issues: A review of the accounting literature on innovation","authors":"Stephen Glaeser, Mark Lang","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We review the accounting literature on innovation, focusing on the economic attributes of innovation that collectively differentiate innovation from other assets: novelty, nonrivalry, and partial excludability. These attributes help innovation drive economic growth but create unique information-based challenges that accounting information and researchers are well suited to address. We discuss the definition and measurement of innovation and highlight common mistakes researchers make when measuring innovation and when using sources of plausibly exogenous variation. We then review the accounting literatures on the disclosure, management, financial reporting, taxation, and contracting and financing of innovation. For each of these literatures we identify challenges and opportunities for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101720"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141852422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101717
Atif Ellahie
A signal that identifies asset pricing bubbles would be valuable so investors could reposition their portfolios to weather the bubble, yet ex ante bubble identification has proven illusory. Arif and Sul (2024) study whether industry-level investment in net operating asset (NOA) accruals is an ex ante accounting-based signal that predicts bubbles. Using industry-level price run-ups across 49 countries, they find that NOA accruals predict a higher likelihood of a future crash, lower future returns, and larger analyst forecast errors, especially following run-up periods. The authors attribute these patterns to sentiment-driven overinvestment. My discussion summarizes the contributions of Arif and Sul's findings to the asset pricing bubbles, behavioral finance, and aggregate accruals literatures. I also outline empirical challenges faced by studies investigating bubbles and recommend approaches to further strengthen inferences. Finally, I propose opportunities for future research to integrate deeper accounting knowledge into bubble research.
一个能识别资产定价泡沫的信号将是非常有价值的，这样投资者就可以调整投资组合以抵御泡沫，然而事实证明事前识别泡沫是不切实际的。Arif 和 Sul（2024 年）研究了行业层面的净运营资产（NOA）应计投资是否是一种能预测泡沫的事前会计信号。他们利用 49 个国家的行业级价格上涨情况，发现净运营资产应计预测了未来崩盘的更高可能性、更低的未来回报率和更大的分析师预测误差，尤其是在价格上涨时期之后。作者将这些模式归因于情绪驱动的过度投资。我的讨论总结了 Arif 和 Sul 的发现对资产定价泡沫、行为金融学和总应计项目文献的贡献。我还概述了研究泡沫所面临的经验挑战，并提出了进一步加强推论的方法。最后，我提出了未来研究的机会，以便将更深层次的会计知识融入泡沫研究中。
{"title":"Accounting for bubbles: A discussion of Arif and Sul (2024)","authors":"Atif Ellahie","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A signal that identifies asset pricing bubbles would be valuable so investors could reposition their portfolios to weather the bubble, yet ex ante bubble identification has proven illusory. Arif and Sul (2024) study whether industry-level investment in net operating asset (NOA) accruals is an ex ante accounting-based signal that predicts bubbles. Using industry-level price run-ups across 49 countries, they find that NOA accruals predict a higher likelihood of a future crash, lower future returns, and larger analyst forecast errors, especially following run-up periods. The authors attribute these patterns to sentiment-driven overinvestment. My discussion summarizes the contributions of Arif and Sul's findings to the asset pricing bubbles, behavioral finance, and aggregate accruals literatures. I also outline empirical challenges faced by studies investigating bubbles and recommend approaches to further strengthen inferences. Finally, I propose opportunities for future research to integrate deeper accounting knowledge into bubble research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101717"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142704284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101736
Anne Beyer, Junyoung Jeong
We discuss Feng et al. (2024), which studies a dynamic model of delegated investment. The paper provides novel insights into the optimal contract between a principal and an agent who obtains private information about both the timing and profitability of investment opportunities. While the analytical analysis provides interesting findings, we have concerns about the validity of the paper’s empirical predictions. We extend the “conceptual” and “operational” levels of Libby boxes by adding an “analytical” level to offer a tool for assessing and developing the link between theoretical models and empirical tests.
{"title":"The unicorn quest: Deriving empirical predictions from theory","authors":"Anne Beyer, Junyoung Jeong","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We discuss Feng et al. (2024), which studies a dynamic model of delegated investment. The paper provides novel insights into the optimal contract between a principal and an agent who obtains private information about both the timing and profitability of investment opportunities. While the analytical analysis provides interesting findings, we have concerns about the validity of the paper’s empirical predictions. We extend the “conceptual” and “operational” levels of Libby boxes by adding an “analytical” level to offer a tool for assessing and developing the link between theoretical models and empirical tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101736"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142144479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711
Salman Arif , Edward Sul
Economists have long observed that stock price bubbles are associated with corporate overinvestment. We study the ex-ante identification of bubbles (i.e. stock price booms followed by busts) by examining industry-level investments in net operating asset (NOA) accruals and stock returns for 49 countries around the world. Consistent with overinvestment in operating assets being key to bubble formation, we document five findings: (1) NOA accruals positively forecast the eventual crash of an industry price run-up; (2) NOA accruals negatively forecast stock returns following a run-up; (3) NOA accruals are positively associated with investor sentiment; (4) higher NOA accruals forecast more disappointing earnings relative to analysts’ expectations for run-up industries; and (5) NOA accruals are sharply stronger predictors of crashes, returns and analyst forecast errors following run-ups compared to other periods. Our results provide the first evidence that accounting information identifies stock price bubbles and suggest that financial statements are important for detecting and anticipating industry- and market-level inefficiencies.
{"title":"Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals","authors":"Salman Arif , Edward Sul","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economists have long observed that stock price bubbles are associated with corporate overinvestment. We study the ex-ante identification of bubbles (i.e. stock price booms followed by busts) by examining industry-level investments in net operating asset (NOA) accruals and stock returns for 49 countries around the world. Consistent with overinvestment in operating assets being key to bubble formation, we document five findings: (1) NOA accruals positively forecast the eventual crash of an industry price run-up; (2) NOA accruals negatively forecast stock returns following a run-up; (3) NOA accruals are positively associated with investor sentiment; (4) higher NOA accruals forecast more disappointing earnings relative to analysts’ expectations for run-up industries; and (5) NOA accruals are sharply stronger predictors of crashes, returns and analyst forecast errors following run-ups compared to other periods. Our results provide the first evidence that accounting information identifies stock price bubbles and suggest that financial statements are important for detecting and anticipating industry- and market-level inefficiencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101711"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141688738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101738
Felix Zhiyu Feng , Robin Yifan Luo , Beatrice Michaeli
We study the optimal dynamic contract that provides incentives for an agent (e.g., SPAC sponsor, VC general partner, CTO) to exploit investment opportunities/targets that arrive randomly over time via a costly search process. The agent is privy to the arrival as well as to the quality of the target and can take advantage of this for rent extraction during the search process and the ensuing production. The optimal contract provides the agent with incentives for timely and truthful reporting via a time-varying threshold for investment and an internal charge for the time spent on search. In the equilibrium, as time elapses, the charge becomes progressively higher while the investment threshold is progressively lower, resulting in overinvestment at a time-varying degree. Our model generates empirically testable predictions regarding investments (such as M&As, hedge fund activism, VC investing, SPACs, and internal innovations), linking the degree of overinvestment to observable firm and industry characteristics.
{"title":"In search of a unicorn: Dynamic agency with endogenous investment opportunities","authors":"Felix Zhiyu Feng , Robin Yifan Luo , Beatrice Michaeli","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the optimal dynamic contract that provides incentives for an agent (e.g., SPAC sponsor, VC general partner, CTO) to exploit investment opportunities/targets that arrive randomly over time via a costly search process. The agent is privy to the arrival as well as to the quality of the target and can take advantage of this for rent extraction during the search process and the ensuing production. The optimal contract provides the agent with incentives for timely and truthful reporting via a time-varying threshold for investment and an internal charge for the time spent on search. In the equilibrium, as time elapses, the charge becomes progressively higher while the investment threshold is progressively lower, resulting in overinvestment at a time-varying degree. Our model generates empirically testable predictions regarding investments (such as M&As, hedge fund activism, VC investing, SPACs, and internal innovations), linking the degree of overinvestment to observable firm and industry characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101738"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142144477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101710
William J. Mayew
Guidance is an important and long-studied topic in the accounting literature. Call, Hribar, Skinner, and Volant (this issue) survey managers who provide guidance and those that do not to generate insights on the costs and benefits of providing guidance. For managers who do provide guidance, perceptions regarding guidance characteristics are elicited. Firm responses are connected to archival data sources, enabling cross-sectional analysis of survey responses and facilitating comparison of self-reported guidance with common guidance proxies in the archival literature. I discuss key insights from the survey, considering the limitations inherent in the survey method. I also clarify what is meant by the term guidance, how it differs from other forward-looking information and how researchers operationalize the guidance construct. I conclude by offering six research questions for future consideration based on the survey evidence.
{"title":"Contemporary insights on corporate guidance: A discussion of Call, Hribar, Skinner, and Volant (2024)","authors":"William J. Mayew","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Guidance is an important and long-studied topic in the accounting literature. Call, Hribar, Skinner, and Volant (this issue) survey managers who provide guidance and those that do not to generate insights on the costs and benefits of providing guidance. For managers who do provide guidance, perceptions regarding guidance characteristics are elicited. Firm responses are connected to archival data sources, enabling cross-sectional analysis of survey responses and facilitating comparison of self-reported guidance with common guidance proxies in the archival literature. I discuss key insights from the survey, considering the limitations inherent in the survey method. I also clarify what is meant by the term guidance, how it differs from other forward-looking information and how researchers operationalize the guidance construct. I conclude by offering six research questions for future consideration based on the survey evidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101710"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141615131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101733
Mary E. Barth , Kurt H. Gee
Glaeser and Lang (2024; GL) reviews the accounting literature on innovation, which has increased substantially in recent years. GL makes an important contribution to accounting research by bringing into the literature the implications of Romer's Nobel Prize winning endogenous growth theory and by explaining how accounting research addresses questions related to innovation. We contribute to accounting research by building on GL's foundation to suggest three main paths forward for future innovation research. First, focus on innovation's three defining attributes: novelty, nonrivalry, and partial excludability. Second, determine the needs of various users of information about a firm's innovation activities and how to meet those needs; we focus on the needs of investors. Third, address questions our discussion highlights as potentially important for future research on financial reporting and innovation, including the crucial question of an innovation's identifiability.
{"title":"Accounting and innovation: Paths forward for research","authors":"Mary E. Barth , Kurt H. Gee","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101733","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101733","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glaeser and Lang (2024; GL) reviews the accounting literature on innovation, which has increased substantially in recent years. GL makes an important contribution to accounting research by bringing into the literature the implications of Romer's Nobel Prize winning endogenous growth theory and by explaining how accounting research addresses questions related to innovation. We contribute to accounting research by building on GL's foundation to suggest three main paths forward for future innovation research. First, focus on innovation's three defining attributes: novelty, nonrivalry, and partial excludability. Second, determine the needs of various users of information about a firm's innovation activities and how to meet those needs; we focus on the needs of investors. Third, address questions our discussion highlights as potentially important for future research on financial reporting and innovation, including the crucial question of an innovation's identifiability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101733"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141994711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101731
Andrew C. Call , Paul Hribar , Douglas J. Skinner , David Volant
We survey corporate managers of both guiding and non-guiding firms. We find that managers of firms that provide guidance say that they: (1) primarily provide guidance to satisfy analyst and investor demands and manage analysts’ earnings expectations; (2) are relatively unconcerned about proprietary or litigation costs (managers of non-guiding firms are more likely to see litigation risk as a concern); (3) predominantly issue guidance that is conservative relative to their internal expectations; (4) are concerned that guidance induces analysts and investors to focus on the short-term but not that it induces managers themselves to make myopic decisions internally. We also find that managers are miscalibrated about the accuracy of their guidance and that significant quantities of guidance that managers say their firms issue are not captured by conventional sources. We offer several other new insights relevant to the voluntary disclosure literature.
{"title":"Corporate managers’ perspectives on forward-looking guidance: Survey evidence","authors":"Andrew C. Call , Paul Hribar , Douglas J. Skinner , David Volant","doi":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We survey corporate managers of both guiding and non-guiding firms. We find that managers of firms that provide guidance say that they: (1) primarily provide guidance to satisfy analyst and investor demands and manage analysts’ earnings expectations; (2) are relatively unconcerned about proprietary or litigation costs (managers of <em>non-guiding</em> firms are more likely to see litigation risk as a concern); (3) predominantly issue guidance that is conservative relative to their internal expectations; (4) are concerned that guidance induces analysts and investors to focus on the short-term but <em>not</em> that it induces managers themselves to make myopic decisions internally. We also find that managers are miscalibrated about the accuracy of their guidance and that significant quantities of guidance that managers say their firms issue are not captured by conventional sources. We offer several other new insights relevant to the voluntary disclosure literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48438,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"78 2","pages":"Article 101731"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141910788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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