Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第6页

Corrigendum to “Digital technology adoption and SC recoverability. The mediating role of relationship transparency and SC production risk management capabilities” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change volume 218, September 2025, 124219 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219] “数字技术的采用和SC的可恢复性”的更正。关系透明度与供应链生产风险管理能力的中介作用[j]。预测。Soc。变更卷218,2025年9月，124219 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124549

Nidhi Singh , Usama Awan , Sarah Basahel , Rsha Alghafes

引用次数: 0

The impact of creativity in social AR filters on brand awareness, image, and behavioral intentions: The role of intrusiveness and Ad recognition 社交AR过滤器的创意对品牌意识、形象和行为意图的影响：侵入性和广告识别的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124521

Carlos Orús , Sergio Ibáñez-Sánchez , Carlos Flavián

Brands use Augmented Reality (AR) technologies in their marketing strategies. Among the AR applications, social AR filters enable brands to build new connections with customers on an intimate level, creating valuable experiences on social media and fostering consumers' storytelling. This research examines the effects of creativity of branded social AR filters, a key feature for the success of entertainment products, on users' responses toward brands. The results from an online questionnaire indicate that perceived originality and enjoyment elicit positive cognitive (awareness) and affective (image) reactions toward brands, which subsequently influence behavioral intentions. Additionally, we analyze the moderating role of brand intrusiveness and ad recognition, which can lessen and reinforce the positive effects of creativity on brand responses. Our findings contribute to the theoretical development of user experiences with branded social AR filters and provide recommendations for brand managers to design creative AR filter experiences that foster effective customer-brand connections.

品牌在营销策略中使用增强现实（AR）技术。在AR应用中，社交AR过滤器使品牌能够与客户建立亲密的新联系，在社交媒体上创造有价值的体验，并促进消费者的故事讲述。本研究考察了品牌社交AR滤镜的创造力对用户对品牌的反应的影响，这是娱乐产品成功的一个关键特征。一份在线调查问卷的结果表明，感知到的独创性和享受会引发对品牌的积极认知（意识）和情感（形象）反应，进而影响行为意向。此外，我们还分析了品牌侵入性和广告认知度的调节作用，它们可以减弱和增强创意对品牌反应的积极影响。我们的研究结果有助于品牌社交AR过滤器用户体验的理论发展，并为品牌经理设计创造性的AR过滤器体验提供建议，以促进有效的客户与品牌之间的联系。

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引用次数: 0

Explore or exploit? How explorative and exploitative IT capabilities affect new product development process performance 探索还是利用？探索性和利用性IT能力如何影响新产品开发过程的性能

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124517

Sven Heidenreich , Elena D. Denzer , Slawka Jordanow

This study investigates how explorative and exploitative IT capabilities drive performance across concept development, product development, and implementation stages of the new product development (NPD) process, and how environmental dynamism re-weights their effects. Drawing on survey data from 279 German innovation professionals and employing PLS-SEM alongside a polynomial-regression/response-surface analysis, we first show that treating IT exploration and IT exploitation as distinct dimensions uncovers their separate and joint contributions to stage-level outcomes. Both capabilities positively influence each NPD stage, but exploration yields its greatest marginal benefit during implementation, whereas exploitation exerts a steady effect across all stages. Response-surface results reveal that optimal performance is achieved not at a rigid 50:50 balance but at a context-sensitive, slightly exploitative-leaning ratio whose ideal position shifts as projects progress. Finally, environmental dynamism amplifies the value of explorative IT capabilities while attenuating that of exploitative IT capabilities. In turbulent settings firms benefit from heavier IT investment in exploration, whereas stable environments favor exploitation. These findings advance ambidexterity theory by challenging perfect balance assumptions, opening the NPD black box to reveal stage-specific digital mechanisms, and positioning environmental turbulence as a first-order boundary condition for IT strategy.

本研究探讨了探索性和利用性IT能力如何在概念开发、产品开发和新产品开发（NPD）过程的实施阶段推动绩效，以及环境动态如何重新权衡其影响。利用279名德国创新专业人士的调查数据，并采用PLS-SEM以及多项式回归/响应面分析，我们首先表明，将IT探索和IT利用视为不同的维度，揭示了它们对阶段水平结果的单独和共同贡献。这两种能力对每个新产品开发阶段都有积极影响，但勘探在实施过程中产生最大的边际效益，而开发在所有阶段都有稳定的影响。响应面结果显示，最佳性能不是在严格的50:50平衡下实现的，而是在一个上下文敏感的、略具剥削倾向的比例上实现的，其理想位置随着项目的进展而变化。最后，环境动态性放大了探索性IT能力的价值，同时减弱了利用性IT能力的价值。在动荡的环境中，公司从勘探方面的更多信息技术投资中受益，而稳定的环境有利于开采。这些发现通过挑战完美平衡假设，打开NPD黑箱以揭示特定阶段的数字机制，并将环境动荡定位为IT战略的一阶边界条件，从而推进了二元性理论。

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引用次数: 0

Guest editorial: Technological transformation and change 嘉宾评论：技术转型与变革

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124560

Daniel Palacios-Marqués , Yogesh K. Dwivedi

Technological transformation and change have become key features of modern economies and societies. Digital technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, and platform-based business models now form widespread socio-technical infrastructures that reshape value creation, organizational design, and stakeholder relationships. At the same time, global shocks and growing sustainability challenges reveal tensions between the promises and unintended effects of these technologies. This special issue includes 27 articles that explore technological transformation and change across different levels of analysis, sectors, and regions. Using various theoretical perspectives and methods, the contributions show how digital transformation connects to green innovation and sustainability, organizational capabilities and learning, AI- and data-driven decision-making, as well as changing patterns of consumer behavior, marketing, and platform governance. In this guest editorial, we first set the context and explain the main motivation for the special issue. Then, we provide an overview of the included papers, organized into thematic groups. We end by reflecting on the common insights from the collection, highlighting implications for managers and policymakers, and suggesting promising areas for future research on technological transformation and change.

技术转型和变革已成为现代经济和社会的主要特征。数字技术、人工智能（AI）、数据分析和基于平台的商业模式现在形成了广泛的社会技术基础设施，重塑了价值创造、组织设计和利益相关者关系。与此同时，全球冲击和日益严峻的可持续性挑战揭示了这些技术的承诺与意想不到的影响之间的紧张关系。这期特刊包括27篇文章，探讨了不同层次的分析、行业和地区的技术转型和变化。利用各种理论视角和方法，这些贡献展示了数字化转型如何与绿色创新和可持续性、组织能力和学习、人工智能和数据驱动的决策，以及不断变化的消费者行为模式、营销和平台治理联系在一起。在这篇客座社论中，我们首先设定了背景，并解释了特刊的主要动机。然后，我们提供了一个概述，包括论文，组织成专题小组。最后，我们反思了收集到的共同见解，强调了对管理者和政策制定者的影响，并提出了未来技术转型和变革研究的有希望的领域。

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引用次数: 0

Deep transitions and the evolution of the digital meta-regime 深度转型和数字元制度的演变

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124526

Phil Johnstone , Laur Kanger , Johan Schot

Digital technologies are increasingly framed as important tools to address grand challenges such as climate change. While there is an increasing body of research on the role of digitalisation in unfolding sustainability transitions, it has been recognised that there is a lack of longer-term historical analysis of the evolution of digitalisation in the transitions field. This paper interrogates the multi-system evolution of digital technologies and the historical processes that have shaped the particular directionality characterising the information society. To do this, we mobilise and develop the Deep Transitions framework (DT). The DT framework has studied the mechanisms and processes that shaped the emergence and consolidation of mass production. However, the fifth surge of economic growth (identified as being initiated by the invention of the microprocessor and innovations in telecommunications), has yet to be analysed using the framework. We carry out a case study analysis developing a novel interpretation of digitalisation understood in terms of multi-system transitions processes and the consolidation of a meta-regime. In so doing, we contribute to a validation of DT theory and the analysis of multiple systems dynamics. We discuss our findings in the broader context of great surges of development and sustainability transitions literatures. We posit that the 5th surge is in its maturity phase, and that sustainability has had a limited role in shaping long-term path dependencies of digitalisation.

数字技术日益成为应对气候变化等重大挑战的重要工具。虽然越来越多的研究表明数字化在可持续转型中的作用，但人们已经认识到，缺乏对转型领域数字化演变的长期历史分析。本文探讨了数字技术的多系统演化，以及形成信息社会特有方向性的历史过程。为此，我们动员并开发了深度转换框架（DT）。DT框架研究了形成大规模生产的出现和巩固的机制和过程。然而，经济增长的第五次激增（被认为是由微处理器的发明和电信创新引发的）尚未使用该框架进行分析。我们进行了一个案例研究分析，开发了一种新的数字化解释，以多系统过渡过程和元制度的巩固为基础。在这样做，我们有助于验证DT理论和多系统动力学的分析。我们在发展和可持续性过渡文献的大浪潮的更广泛背景下讨论我们的发现。我们认为，第五次浪潮正处于成熟阶段，可持续性在塑造数字化的长期路径依赖方面的作用有限。

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引用次数: 0

Proximity and cross-regional academia-industry collaboration: The moderating role of regional government support 邻近与跨区域产学研合作：区域政府支持的调节作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124547

Ningning Zhang , Ke Wen , Jingjing Guo , Dingyi You , Le Tang

Previous studies have emphasized geographical proximity's role in academia-industry collaboration, yet this fails to explain the boom of cross-regional cooperation in China. Our study explores the factors driving these collaborations by introducing the concept of regional government support alongside geographical and economic proximity. Using exponential random graph models, we analyze cross-regional collaborations between research institutes affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and firms. Our findings indicate that geographical proximity is positively associated and economic proximity is negatively associated with cross-regional collaboration. Importantly, we find that government innovation support in the firm partner's region both directly enhances collaboration probability and moderates the effects of proximity factors. When the firm partner is located in regions with strong government innovation support, the positive impact of geographical proximity is weakened, whereas the negative effect of economic proximity is strengthened. These findings suggest that academic institutions are increasingly willing to overcome spatial and economic barriers when partnering with firms in regions offering strong institutional support for innovation. Our study provides new insights into the spatial patterns of academia-industry collaboration in China, revealing a trend whereby academic institutions increasingly concentrate their collaborative efforts in regions with strong government support for innovation.

以往的研究强调地理邻近在产学研合作中的作用，但这并不能解释中国跨区域合作的蓬勃发展。我们的研究通过引入区域政府支持以及地理和经济接近的概念，探讨了推动这些合作的因素。利用指数随机图模型，分析了中国科学院所属科研机构与企业的跨区域合作。研究结果表明，地理邻近性与跨区域合作呈正相关，经济邻近性与跨区域合作呈负相关。重要的是，我们发现企业合作伙伴区域的政府创新支持既直接提高了合作概率，又调节了邻近因素的影响。当企业合作伙伴位于政府创新支持力度较大的地区时，地理邻近的正向影响减弱，而经济邻近的负面影响增强。这些研究结果表明，在为创新提供强有力制度支持的地区，学术机构在与企业合作时，越来越愿意克服空间和经济障碍。我们的研究为中国产学研合作的空间格局提供了新的见解，揭示了一个趋势，即学术机构越来越多地将合作集中在政府大力支持创新的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Exploring the impact of responsible AI governance on corporate performance: A quasi-natural experiment” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 223 (February 2026) 124425] 《探索负责任的人工智能治理对企业绩效的影响：一项准自然实验》的勘误表。预测。Soc。更改223（2026年2月）124425]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124472

Huosong Xia , Hao Chen , Justin Zuopeng Zhang , Muhammad Mustafa Kamal

引用次数: 0

Intelligence by design: Large language model work integration as strategic enablers for supply chain regeneration through digital and cognitive capabilities 设计智能：大型语言模型集成作为通过数字和认知能力实现供应链再生的战略推动者

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124497

Weiming Liu , Varun Chotia , Lu Wang , Prashant Sharma , Norah Albishri , Snigdha Dash

This research investigates how working with large language models improves the regenerative capabilities of supply chains by developing digital process transformation capability and cognitive supply chain capability, under varying levels of organisational digital experimentation culture and artificial intelligence (AI) governance maturity. This study develops and tests a multi-stage capability architecture, introducing new perspectives on about cognitive automation, AI capability settings, and algorithmic affordances. The model is validated through analysis of responses from 281 respondents in knowledge-intensive fields. Empirical research supports the proposed serial mediation, depicting that incorporating large language models in supply chains enhance regenerative capacity through digital process transformation and the reconfiguration of cognitive supply chains. Digital experimentation culture strengthens the relationship between the large language model integration into supply chain and digital process capability, whereas AI governance maturity strengthens the link between such integration and regenerative capability. This research adds to modern theories on algorithmic cognition and capability orchestration in AI-enabled systems, adds depth to digital operations and strategic management research, and demonstrates how large language model integration can create regenerative supply chains.

本研究探讨了在不同水平的组织数字实验文化和人工智能（AI）治理成熟度下，大型语言模型如何通过发展数字流程转换能力和认知供应链能力来提高供应链的再生能力。本研究开发并测试了一个多阶段的能力架构，介绍了关于认知自动化、人工智能能力设置和算法支持的新观点。通过对281名知识密集型行业受访者的回答进行分析，验证了模型的有效性。实证研究表明，在供应链中加入大型语言模型可以通过数字化流程转换和认知供应链的重构增强再生能力。数字实验文化加强了大语言模型集成到供应链与数字流程能力之间的关系，而人工智能治理成熟度则加强了这种集成与再生能力之间的联系。这项研究增加了人工智能系统中算法认知和能力编排的现代理论，增加了数字运营和战略管理研究的深度，并展示了大型语言模型集成如何创建再生供应链。

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引用次数: 0

Divergent Paths: Unpacking the role of skill-biased and routine-biased technological change on urban income inequality in China 发散路径：揭示技能偏向和常规偏向的技术变革在中国城市收入不平等中的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124518

Zuge Xing , Canfei He , Yuxin Pan

Biased technological changes have reshaped urban labor markets, significantly affecting income distribution. Despite the recognition of skill-biased technological change (SBTC) and routine-biased technological change (RBTC) frameworks as key to explaining income inequality, it remains unclear whether all types of biased technological changes widen urban income inequality (UII). This paper uses machine learning methods on Chinese census data from 2000 to 2015 to build a large sample urban labor income dataset and analyzes the effects of SBTC, non-routine cognitive RBTC, and non-routine manual RBTC on UII. The results reveal that SBTC and non-routine cognitive RBTC exacerbate UII in China, while non-routine manual RBTC can reduce it and weaken the adverse distributional effects of SBTC. The influence of these technological changes varies markedly across cities with different human capital, foreign direct investment, and economic complexity. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between technological progress and labor market income distribution and offer insights for policymakers in developing countries to formulate targeted labor skill training and employment diversification strategies.

有偏见的技术变革重塑了城市劳动力市场，显著影响了收入分配。尽管认识到技能偏倚技术变革（SBTC）和常规偏倚技术变革（RBTC）框架是解释收入不平等的关键，但是否所有类型的偏倚技术变革都会扩大城市收入不平等（UII）仍不清楚。本文采用机器学习方法对2000 - 2015年中国人口普查数据构建了大样本城镇劳动收入数据集，分析了非常规性认知RBTC、非常规性手动RBTC对用户满意度的影响。结果表明，在中国，非常规性认知RBTC和非常规性认知RBTC加剧了ii，而非常规性手动RBTC可以减轻ii，并削弱其不利的分布效应。这些技术变革的影响在人力资本、外国直接投资和经济复杂程度不同的城市之间存在显著差异。研究结果有助于深入了解技术进步与劳动力市场收入分配之间的相互作用，并为发展中国家的政策制定者制定有针对性的劳动技能培训和就业多元化战略提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Grass is always dark(er) on the other side: Exploring the dark side of artificial intelligence humanitarian supply chain operations 另一边的草总是黑暗的（呃）：探索人工智能人道主义供应链运作的阴暗面

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124484

Abhishek Behl , Shikha Bhardwaj , Nirma Jayawardena , Vijay Pereira , Mohammad Roohanifar

Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) have undergone significant changes over the years, shifting from traditional systems to more intelligent and, eventually, AI-enabled operations. With technological advancements accelerating across sectors, humanitarian organizations have also begun adopting artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance their workflows, improve efficiency, and reduce losses. While much of the existing research has focused on the benefits of AI in business and logistics, there is still limited understanding of its potential downsides—particularly within humanitarian settings. This study addresses that gap by exploring how AI may negatively affect HSC activities, both at the individual (micro) and organizational (macro) levels. To guide our analysis, we draw on the Belief-Action-Outcome (BAO) framework, which helps connect personal and institutional beliefs to actions and resulting outcomes. Humanitarian supply chains operate in complex environments where technology use intersects with human behavior, organizational culture, and social values. To better understand these dynamics, we conducted qualitative interviews with professionals working in humanitarian organizations. These insights allowed us to identify and map various challenges—what we refer to as the “dark side” of AI—onto specific functions within HSC operations. Our findings not only highlight areas of concern but also contribute to the broader application of the BAO model in the humanitarian field.

多年来，人道主义供应链（hsc）经历了重大变化，从传统系统转向更智能的操作，并最终实现人工智能操作。随着各领域技术进步的加速，人道主义组织也开始采用人工智能（AI）来增强其工作流程，提高效率并减少损失。虽然现有的许多研究都集中在人工智能在商业和物流方面的好处上，但对其潜在缺点的了解仍然有限，特别是在人道主义环境中。本研究通过探索人工智能如何在个人（微观）和组织（宏观）层面对HSC活动产生负面影响来解决这一差距。为了指导我们的分析，我们借鉴了信念-行动-结果（BAO）框架，该框架有助于将个人和机构的信念与行动和结果联系起来。人道主义供应链在技术使用与人类行为、组织文化和社会价值观交叉的复杂环境中运作。为了更好地理解这些动态，我们对在人道主义组织工作的专业人员进行了定性访谈。这些见解使我们能够识别和映射各种挑战-我们称之为人工智能的“阴暗面”-到HSC运营中的特定功能上。我们的发现不仅突出了值得关注的领域，而且有助于BAO模型在人道主义领域的更广泛应用。

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引用次数: 0