Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124550
Wanggi Jaung
As a general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly shaping environmental outcomes, yet its alignment with environmental values remains unclear. We assess this alignment by comparing environmental valuations from three open-source AI models (Gemma 2, Llama 3.1, and Mistral) with those of human stakeholders. Using choice experiment studies from 21 countries, we drew on estimates of human marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for environmental attributes and replicated the same designs with the AI models. Across countries and attributes, the models assigned consistently higher MWTP than humans, with larger gaps in Western countries and for non-use values such as existence and bequest values. These results suggest that prevailing human values may be an insufficient benchmark for evaluating AI alignment, even as adopting more stringent AI-driven environmental standards raises practical and ethical concerns. Differences across models further indicate that a diverse AI model ecosystem could support pluralistic rather than homogenized environmental values. Together, these findings provide a quantitative basis for understanding AI–environment value alignment and for designing environmentally responsible AI systems.
{"title":"Does AI value the environment? Evaluation of AI value alignment","authors":"Wanggi Jaung","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly shaping environmental outcomes, yet its alignment with environmental values remains unclear. We assess this alignment by comparing environmental valuations from three open-source AI models (Gemma 2, Llama 3.1, and Mistral) with those of human stakeholders. Using choice experiment studies from 21 countries, we drew on estimates of human marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for environmental attributes and replicated the same designs with the AI models. Across countries and attributes, the models assigned consistently higher MWTP than humans, with larger gaps in Western countries and for non-use values such as existence and bequest values. These results suggest that prevailing human values may be an insufficient benchmark for evaluating AI alignment, even as adopting more stringent AI-driven environmental standards raises practical and ethical concerns. Differences across models further indicate that a diverse AI model ecosystem could support pluralistic rather than homogenized environmental values. Together, these findings provide a quantitative basis for understanding AI–environment value alignment and for designing environmentally responsible AI systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124550"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124552
Tao Wang , Kaifan Luo , Chao Yu
Institutional elements are crucial drivers of corporate green innovation. Although existing research has acknowledged the important role of institutional elements in corporate green innovation and explored their interrelations, a comprehensive understanding of their relative importance and nonlinear impacts remains limited. To address this gap, this study draws on institutional theory and employs multiple machine learning algorithms, along with SHAP value analysis, using data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2011−2022) to systematically assess the influence of regulative, normative, and cultural-cognitive elements on firms' green innovation. The findings reveal that, among institutional elements, cultural-cognitive elements exert the most significant influence on firm green innovation. Specifically, central inspections, public attention, and industry-level green orientation are the predominant factors within their respective institutional categories. Most institutional elements exhibit significant nonlinear relationships with green innovation. Further analysis indicates that cultural-cognitive elements can, under certain conditions, impede green innovation, whereas regulative and normative elements generally foster it. Moreover, the impact of institutional elements demonstrates considerable heterogeneity across different regions, industries, and firm sizes. This study highlights the importance and interplay of institutional elements in shaping firm green innovation, offering insights for emerging economies to tailor policies and support firms' sustainable transformation.
{"title":"Unlocking the institutional foundations of green innovation: A machine learning analysis","authors":"Tao Wang , Kaifan Luo , Chao Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Institutional elements are crucial drivers of corporate green innovation. Although existing research has acknowledged the important role of institutional elements in corporate green innovation and explored their interrelations, a comprehensive understanding of their relative importance and nonlinear impacts remains limited. To address this gap, this study draws on institutional theory and employs multiple machine learning algorithms, along with SHAP value analysis, using data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2011−2022) to systematically assess the influence of regulative, normative, and cultural-cognitive elements on firms' green innovation. The findings reveal that, among institutional elements, cultural-cognitive elements exert the most significant influence on firm green innovation. Specifically, central inspections, public attention, and industry-level green orientation are the predominant factors within their respective institutional categories. Most institutional elements exhibit significant nonlinear relationships with green innovation. Further analysis indicates that cultural-cognitive elements can, under certain conditions, impede green innovation, whereas regulative and normative elements generally foster it. Moreover, the impact of institutional elements demonstrates considerable heterogeneity across different regions, industries, and firm sizes. This study highlights the importance and interplay of institutional elements in shaping firm green innovation, offering insights for emerging economies to tailor policies and support firms' sustainable transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124552"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124548
Lei Liu , Liying Zhou , Prashant Sharma , Ebtesam Abdullah Alzeiby , Snigdha Dash
Knowledge-driven economies rely on innovation ecosystems and solutions that leverage digital infrastructure and viable governance supported by collaborative openness among institutions. This study aims to examine the effect of collaborative institutional openness, multi-level governance alignment, and digital civic infrastructure readiness on socially embedded knowledge spillover and triple helix trust density, and resulting outcomes on sustainable innovation performance and societal knowledge value realisation. Additionally, the study examines the moderating role of mission-oriented entrepreneurial orientation behavior for mission-oriented innovation. Implementing collaborative institutional openness, multi-level governance alignment, and digital civic infrastructure readiness enhances socially embedded knowledge spillover and thereby increases triple helix trust density. The two sequential methods help improve sustainable innovation performance and the realisation of societal knowledge value, underscoring the importance of trust-based relational architectures for innovation systems. Intriguingly, mission-oriented entrepreneurial orientation is negatively associated with the relationship connectedness of socially embedded knowledge spillover–triple helix trust density. If a collaborator focuses solely on a shared objective, it can be challenging to build trust with them. The research explains how structural, digital, and behavioral enablers impact sustainable innovation. Innovation ecosystems need to be open, ready for digital technology, trust-based, capable of changing their mission, and governed reflexively.
{"title":"Triple helix trust and spillovers for sustainable innovation: The role of governance, openness, and digital infrastructure","authors":"Lei Liu , Liying Zhou , Prashant Sharma , Ebtesam Abdullah Alzeiby , Snigdha Dash","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Knowledge-driven economies rely on innovation ecosystems and solutions that leverage digital infrastructure and viable governance supported by collaborative openness among institutions. This study aims to examine the effect of collaborative institutional openness, multi-level governance alignment, and digital civic infrastructure readiness on socially embedded knowledge spillover and triple helix trust density, and resulting outcomes on sustainable innovation performance and societal knowledge value realisation. Additionally, the study examines the moderating role of mission-oriented entrepreneurial orientation behavior for mission-oriented innovation. Implementing collaborative institutional openness, multi-level governance alignment, and digital civic infrastructure readiness enhances socially embedded knowledge spillover and thereby increases triple helix trust density. The two sequential methods help improve sustainable innovation performance and the realisation of societal knowledge value, underscoring the importance of trust-based relational architectures for innovation systems. Intriguingly, mission-oriented entrepreneurial orientation is negatively associated with the relationship connectedness of socially embedded knowledge spillover–triple helix trust density. If a collaborator focuses solely on a shared objective, it can be challenging to build trust with them. The research explains how structural, digital, and behavioral enablers impact sustainable innovation. Innovation ecosystems need to be open, ready for digital technology, trust-based, capable of changing their mission, and governed reflexively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124548"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124553
Kalle Nuortimo , Janne Härkönen , Kristijan Breznik
Addressing global waste management challenges requires understanding not only the technical capabilities of products and technologies but also the factors shaping their development and deployment across the waste hierarchy. Deployment outcomes are strongly influenced by acceptance, reputation, and trust, distinct yet interrelated constructs whose dynamics remain insufficiently understood. Deepening this understanding can enhance stakeholder engagement and improve decision-making in waste management. This study examines waste-to-energy incineration as a representative case to investigate these dynamics across global, regional, and local levels. A multidisciplinary, data-driven approach is applied, combining artificial intelligence, big data analytics, opinion mining, Correspondence Analysis on Generalized Aggregated Lexical Tables, and content classification to assess acceptance, trust, and reputation in multiple knowledge domains. The analysis clarifies these constructs as interwoven but individually influential factors shaping technology deployment and explores their interplay with public perception. A novel method is also introduced for generating indicative reputation scores derived from sentiment analysis. The findings show that AI-enhanced analytical tools, when integrated with established methods, yield valuable insights into stakeholder sentiment and public discourse. These insights can inform more targeted stakeholder engagement and strategic communication in waste management planning. Overall, the study demonstrates the potential of emerging analytical tools to produce timely, structured indicators of trust, acceptance, and reputation, key dimensions for navigating the socio-political challenges of technology deployment in the waste sector.
{"title":"Waste management–related trust, acceptance, and reputation: A multidisciplinary big data analysis across knowledge domains","authors":"Kalle Nuortimo , Janne Härkönen , Kristijan Breznik","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing global waste management challenges requires understanding not only the technical capabilities of products and technologies but also the factors shaping their development and deployment across the waste hierarchy. Deployment outcomes are strongly influenced by acceptance, reputation, and trust, distinct yet interrelated constructs whose dynamics remain insufficiently understood. Deepening this understanding can enhance stakeholder engagement and improve decision-making in waste management. This study examines waste-to-energy incineration as a representative case to investigate these dynamics across global, regional, and local levels. A multidisciplinary, data-driven approach is applied, combining artificial intelligence, big data analytics, opinion mining, Correspondence Analysis on Generalized Aggregated Lexical Tables, and content classification to assess acceptance, trust, and reputation in multiple knowledge domains. The analysis clarifies these constructs as interwoven but individually influential factors shaping technology deployment and explores their interplay with public perception. A novel method is also introduced for generating indicative reputation scores derived from sentiment analysis. The findings show that AI-enhanced analytical tools, when integrated with established methods, yield valuable insights into stakeholder sentiment and public discourse. These insights can inform more targeted stakeholder engagement and strategic communication in waste management planning. Overall, the study demonstrates the potential of emerging analytical tools to produce timely, structured indicators of trust, acceptance, and reputation, key dimensions for navigating the socio-political challenges of technology deployment in the waste sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124553"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124526
Phil Johnstone , Laur Kanger , Johan Schot
Digital technologies are increasingly framed as important tools to address grand challenges such as climate change. While there is an increasing body of research on the role of digitalisation in unfolding sustainability transitions, it has been recognised that there is a lack of longer-term historical analysis of the evolution of digitalisation in the transitions field. This paper interrogates the multi-system evolution of digital technologies and the historical processes that have shaped the particular directionality characterising the information society. To do this, we mobilise and develop the Deep Transitions framework (DT). The DT framework has studied the mechanisms and processes that shaped the emergence and consolidation of mass production. However, the fifth surge of economic growth (identified as being initiated by the invention of the microprocessor and innovations in telecommunications), has yet to be analysed using the framework. We carry out a case study analysis developing a novel interpretation of digitalisation understood in terms of multi-system transitions processes and the consolidation of a meta-regime. In so doing, we contribute to a validation of DT theory and the analysis of multiple systems dynamics. We discuss our findings in the broader context of great surges of development and sustainability transitions literatures. We posit that the 5th surge is in its maturity phase, and that sustainability has had a limited role in shaping long-term path dependencies of digitalisation.
{"title":"Deep transitions and the evolution of the digital meta-regime","authors":"Phil Johnstone , Laur Kanger , Johan Schot","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital technologies are increasingly framed as important tools to address grand challenges such as climate change. While there is an increasing body of research on the role of digitalisation in unfolding sustainability transitions, it has been recognised that there is a lack of longer-term historical analysis of the evolution of digitalisation in the transitions field. This paper interrogates the multi-system evolution of digital technologies and the historical processes that have shaped the particular directionality characterising the information society. To do this, we mobilise and develop the Deep Transitions framework (DT). The DT framework has studied the mechanisms and processes that shaped the emergence and consolidation of mass production. However, the fifth surge of economic growth (identified as being initiated by the invention of the microprocessor and innovations in telecommunications), has yet to be analysed using the framework. We carry out a case study analysis developing a novel interpretation of digitalisation understood in terms of multi-system transitions processes and the consolidation of a meta-regime. In so doing, we contribute to a validation of DT theory and the analysis of multiple systems dynamics. We discuss our findings in the broader context of great surges of development and sustainability transitions literatures. We posit that the 5th surge is in its maturity phase, and that sustainability has had a limited role in shaping long-term path dependencies of digitalisation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124526"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554
Lei Shen , Qingyue Shi , Debadrita Panda , Vinit Parida
Digital technology diffusion is reshaping innovation across supply chain dynamics and ecosystem partners. Prior work often looks at one firm or uniform settings, missing how technology diffusion need to be orchestrated by ecosystem leader across diverse suppliers and other actors. To address this gap, this study employs an exploratory case study of the intelligent vehicle ecosystem, focusing on an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and six supply chain partners. Although positioned in the supply chain, these actors influence the wider ecosystem thereby affecting technology diffusion beyond dyadic ties. Drawing on 35 interviews, observations, and secondary data, the research advances the technology diffusion and innovation ecosystem literatures in three ways. First, it highlights the evolving role of focal actor as ecosystem leader, demonstrating their progression from transformational to collaborative and ultimately empowering roles across different phases of digital technology diffusion. Second, it identifies three orchestration mechanisms, namely knowledge orchestration, incentive aligned orchestration, and market driven orchestration, and specifies when each should be deployed in response to partner-specific requirements. Third, it offers a novel perspective on how ecosystem leaders shift value propositions to include both core and peripheral partners. From a practical standpoint, the study offers OEMs actionable guidance to diagnose their diffusion context and select appropriate orchestration mechanism. It also provides policymakers with insights for designing targeted instruments that strengthen digital diffusion and support sustainable industrial growth.
{"title":"Digital technology diffusion through supply chain orchestration","authors":"Lei Shen , Qingyue Shi , Debadrita Panda , Vinit Parida","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital technology diffusion is reshaping innovation across supply chain dynamics and ecosystem partners. Prior work often looks at one firm or uniform settings, missing how technology diffusion need to be orchestrated by ecosystem leader across diverse suppliers and other actors. To address this gap, this study employs an exploratory case study of the intelligent vehicle ecosystem, focusing on an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and six supply chain partners. Although positioned in the supply chain, these actors influence the wider ecosystem thereby affecting technology diffusion beyond dyadic ties. Drawing on 35 interviews, observations, and secondary data, the research advances the technology diffusion and innovation ecosystem literatures in three ways. First, it highlights the evolving role of focal actor as ecosystem leader, demonstrating their progression from transformational to collaborative and ultimately empowering roles across different phases of digital technology diffusion. Second, it identifies three orchestration mechanisms, namely knowledge orchestration, incentive aligned orchestration, and market driven orchestration, and specifies when each should be deployed in response to partner-specific requirements. Third, it offers a novel perspective on how ecosystem leaders shift value propositions to include both core and peripheral partners. From a practical standpoint, the study offers OEMs actionable guidance to diagnose their diffusion context and select appropriate orchestration mechanism. It also provides policymakers with insights for designing targeted instruments that strengthen digital diffusion and support sustainable industrial growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124554"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124545
Jun-Phil Uhm , Kun Chang , Sanghoon Kim , Hyun-Woo Lee
Olympic virtual series made its inaugural debut as the first Olympic-licensed virtual sports, yet whether audiences will perceive them as legitimate official Olympic events is unknown. Drawing on the environmental psychology model and transportation theory, we examined the relationship between the audience's perceived virtual gaming atmosphere, sense of presence, positive emotions, and perceived legitimacy of the Olympic virtual series. 339 Olympic virtual series spectators were included in the analysis of a serial mediation model using PROCESS macro. The findings revealed that game atmosphere was a significant factor in establishing audiences' sense of presence, positive emotion, and perceived legitimacy. The mediation effects of presence and positive emotion on the relationship between the game atmosphere and perceived legitimacy were also significant. This study contributed to the media communication literature and provided useful practical implications for the International Olympic Committee regarding how to enhance spectators' Olympic digital experience.
{"title":"Digitalization of the Olympics and legitimacy of the Olympic virtual series: An environmental psychology perspective","authors":"Jun-Phil Uhm , Kun Chang , Sanghoon Kim , Hyun-Woo Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Olympic virtual series made its inaugural debut as the first Olympic-licensed virtual sports, yet whether audiences will perceive them as legitimate official Olympic events is unknown. Drawing on the environmental psychology model and transportation theory, we examined the relationship between the audience's perceived virtual gaming atmosphere, sense of presence, positive emotions, and perceived legitimacy of the Olympic virtual series. 339 Olympic virtual series spectators were included in the analysis of a serial mediation model using PROCESS macro. The findings revealed that game atmosphere was a significant factor in establishing audiences' sense of presence, positive emotion, and perceived legitimacy. The mediation effects of presence and positive emotion on the relationship between the game atmosphere and perceived legitimacy were also significant. This study contributed to the media communication literature and provided useful practical implications for the International Olympic Committee regarding how to enhance spectators' Olympic digital experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124545"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Resilience is crucial as entrepreneurial organizations have often been viewed as fragile systems, leading to their reactive approach to disruptions. However, there is a lack of clarity regarding the role of unique organizational capabilities in interpreting emerging disruptions, managing the aftereffects of disruptions, and achieving antifragility. We explore how entrepreneurial organizations proactively thrive during disruption, with a specific focus on the unique role of varied organizational capabilities at three distinct stages of disruption: the pre-disruption stage, the emergence of disruption, and the post-disruption stage. Our qualitative study investigated responses from managers working in thirty-six entrepreneurial organizations, highlighting the concurrent role of digital capabilities, social capital, and ambidexterity during different stages of disruption. The findings indicate that leveraging social capital is crucial in activating organizational resilience during the various stages of a crisis. Digital technologies enable entrepreneurial organizations to anticipate the potential ramifications of disruptions and engage in collaborations during the post-disruption phase, thereby building antifragility. Another implication is the role of ambidexterity as an organizational capability in responding positively to continuous disruptions and thriving post disruptions.
{"title":"Moving beyond resilience: Building antifragility using digital technologies in entrepreneurial organizations","authors":"Yaning Zhang , Sanjay Chaudhary , Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani , Yanzhe Yuan , Bhumika Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience is crucial as entrepreneurial organizations have often been viewed as fragile systems, leading to their reactive approach to disruptions. However, there is a lack of clarity regarding the role of unique organizational capabilities in interpreting emerging disruptions, managing the aftereffects of disruptions, and achieving antifragility. We explore how entrepreneurial organizations proactively thrive during disruption, with a specific focus on the unique role of varied organizational capabilities at three distinct stages of disruption: the pre-disruption stage, the emergence of disruption, and the post-disruption stage. Our qualitative study investigated responses from managers working in thirty-six entrepreneurial organizations, highlighting the concurrent role of digital capabilities, social capital, and ambidexterity during different stages of disruption. The findings indicate that leveraging social capital is crucial in activating organizational resilience during the various stages of a crisis. Digital technologies enable entrepreneurial organizations to anticipate the potential ramifications of disruptions and engage in collaborations during the post-disruption phase, thereby building antifragility. Another implication is the role of ambidexterity as an organizational capability in responding positively to continuous disruptions and thriving post disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124514"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124555
Marta Leocata , Giulia Livieri , Silvia Morlacchi , Fausto Corvino , Franco Flandoli , Alberto Eugenio Ermenegildo Pirni
Household adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is central to the green energy transition, yet diffusion depends on social influence and behavioral biases, as well as payback economics. This study develops a parsimonious Markovian model in which households move sequentially from being unengaged (“Carbon”) to informed, to planning, and finally to adoption (“Green”). Transition rates are micro-founded by two mechanisms: (i) social contagion/communication, proxied by the current share of adopters, and (ii) economic profitability, proxied by payback time computed from a Net Present Value framework. Novel to this diffusion setting, bounded rationality is introduced via hyperbolic discounting, creating a procrastination loop that delays adoption even when PV is economically attractive in a long-run perspective. Calibrated on the Italian residential PV diffusion path (2006–2020) and assessed in national and regional applications, the model reproduces observed trajectories and enables forward-looking scenario analysis (2020–2026). Results show that policies yielding similar payback improvements can produce different outcomes once present bias is accounted for and that behaviorally informed intervention are stronger. The findings contribute a micro-to-macro bridge between behavioral economics and technology diffusion modeling and imply that effective policy portfolios (and PV business models) should complement incentives with commitment devices and social-norm peer strategies to accelerate PV uptake and its spillover emissions benefits.
{"title":"Understanding the householder solar panel consumer: A Markovian model and its societal implications","authors":"Marta Leocata , Giulia Livieri , Silvia Morlacchi , Fausto Corvino , Franco Flandoli , Alberto Eugenio Ermenegildo Pirni","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Household adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is central to the green energy transition, yet diffusion depends on social influence and behavioral biases, as well as payback economics. This study develops a parsimonious Markovian model in which households move sequentially from being unengaged (“Carbon”) to informed, to planning, and finally to adoption (“Green”). Transition rates are micro-founded by two mechanisms: (i) social contagion/communication, proxied by the current share of adopters, and (ii) economic profitability, proxied by payback time computed from a Net Present Value framework. Novel to this diffusion setting, bounded rationality is introduced via hyperbolic discounting, creating a procrastination loop that delays adoption even when PV is economically attractive in a long-run perspective. Calibrated on the Italian residential PV diffusion path (2006–2020) and assessed in national and regional applications, the model reproduces observed trajectories and enables forward-looking scenario analysis (2020–2026). Results show that policies yielding similar payback improvements can produce different outcomes once present bias is accounted for and that behaviorally informed intervention are stronger. The findings contribute a micro-to-macro bridge between behavioral economics and technology diffusion modeling and imply that effective policy portfolios (and PV business models) should complement incentives with commitment devices and social-norm peer strategies to accelerate PV uptake and its spillover emissions benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124555"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Digital technology adoption and SC recoverability. The mediating role of relationship transparency and SC production risk management capabilities” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change volume 218, September 2025, 124219 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219]","authors":"Nidhi Singh , Usama Awan , Sarah Basahel , Rsha Alghafes","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124549","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124549"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号