Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

英文中文

Reflection on faster and faster deliveries: Possible social changes arising from logistical immediacy

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123989

Mauro Vivaldini , Leticia Ribeiro Vivaldini

This paper uses the Antecedents, Decisions, and Outcomes (ADO) format, supported by the SPAR-4-SLR protocol, to understand the social changes resulting from increasingly faster deliveries in logistics services. This method guides the conduct of research by using an organised analysis structure to evaluate in the literature the antecedents and decision factors that contribute to this movement, helping in gaining an understanding of the factors influencing social change. Based on extensive coverage of studies published from 1996 to 2024, an investigation was conducted on topics related to immediacy in deliveries and possible social impacts to establish a line of understanding in this regard. A categories-based structure was organised with a view to understanding the transformations that influenced increasingly faster deliveries, the alternatives and technologies adopted by companies, and to inferring the possible social impacts generated. With the analysis carried out, the study presents the transformations that companies have undergone and the factors influencing the logistical immediacy imposed on deliveries. Issues were explored regarding the impact of the application of lean practices in the industry the sales and delivery approaches adopted by e-commerce, and the influence of innovations and technological platforms that surround delivery operations. The social impacts are evident on several fronts, emphasising the delivery workforce, the influences of autonomous technologies on workers, and urban issues related to traffic, pollution, and public policies. Finally, the possible social changes observed in the studies are organised, presented, and discussed, and guidelines for future research are provided.

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引用次数: 0

Too old for a circular solar economy? Age dynamics in the acceptance of solar and circular value propositions

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124001

Wim Van Opstal

Population ageing and the sustainable energy transition are significant transformations of the twenty-first century. In this paper, we use household survey data to assess the interplay between age, the adoption of solar photovoltaics (PV), and interest in circular value propositions. Circular business models may mitigate the upcoming PV waste stream while enabling access to renewables. As a sustainable transition towards a circular economy and society requires the participation of all groups in society, this work contributes to understanding age-related dynamics in customer acceptance of solar and circular value propositions. We apply Tobit, logit, and multinomial logit regressions, controlling for covariates that have been identified as important moderators in earlier research, including income and educational attainment. Our findings reveal an increasing adoption of solar PV up to the age of 65, and a negative relationship between age and interest in circular solar value propositions. Older consumers report lower interest in technology and in financial considerations and report differential perspectives of environmental benefits compared to their younger counterparts. Our results highlight differences in value propositions and barriers across age groups, enabling the identification of recommendations for policymakers aiming for intergenerational inclusiveness and business managers serving multigenerational market segments in a sustainable transition.

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引用次数: 0

Demystifying sustainable innovation and governance in family firms: A critical review

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123994

Rada Gutuleac , Chiara Giachino , Šárka Vilamová , Alberto Ferraris

Family firms' governance, which is inherently risk-averse, frequently inhibits sustainable innovation. However, the same governance structure, driven by a strong desire for oversight, can enhance innovation outcomes by ensuring diligent monitoring and execution. This paper aims to conceptualise how governance bodies within family firms contribute to fostering sustainable innovation. To this end, we conducted a critical review to identify the state of the art of sustainable innovation and governance structure of family firms. Then, drawing on the dynamic capability theory, we developed a new theory combining literature with insights from an illustrative case study. The findings unveil that some family firm governance bodies champion sustainable innovation, yet their efforts are frequently confined to the same. Given the absence of a dedicated board to manage the innovation process end-to-end, we propose an emerging solution in managerial practice, known as a shadow board, to fill this gap. That is, a selected group of younger employees or external experts tasked with advising the executive team. The results shall guide scholars towards a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms that can drive sustainable innovation in family firms from a governance perspective. Moreover, by leveraging these insights, organisations can enhance their ability to overcome potential challenges and optimise sustainable innovation processes.

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引用次数: 0

Can corporate climate risk drive digital transformation? Evidence from Chinese heavy-polluting enterprises

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123990

Wen Chen , Qiuyue Zhang

In current years, global climate risks have intensified significantly, causing profound impacts on corporate operations and regulatory environments. This paper takes China's heavy-polluting listed firms from 2010 to 2022 as a sample, establishes a firm-level climate risk index, and studies the impact of corporate climate risk on digital transformation. The empirical research based on a dual fixed effects model indicates that for every one standard deviation's increase in climate risk, the level of digital transformation will increase by 0.0314 standard deviations. This effect is achieved by reducing corporate fixed asset investment as well as increasing diversification. Furthermore, among the eight major energy-consuming industries, non-state-owned enterprises, and enterprises facing significant financing constraints, the promotion of the digital transformation in heavy-polluting enterprises is obvious due to climate risks. This study suggests that digital transformation is likely to be a conscious selection for enterprises to adapt themselves to climate change, implying that there exist enormous digital business opportunities in the current business practice of climate adaption. In addition, this study provides a brand-new perspective for understanding the relationship between digitization and greening, which has strategic significance for policy makers to jointly promote the coordinated transformation and development of digitization and greening.

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引用次数: 0

Growing a greener future: A bibliometric analysis of green innovation in SMEs

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123976

David Sabando-Vera , Néstor Montalván-Burbano , Katherine Parrales-Guerrero , Marcela Yonfá-Medranda , José Antonio Plaza-Úbeda

Green innovation (GI) has attracted growing interest in academia, society and business due to its importance for environmental protection, quality of life, environmentally friendly products and economic results, especially among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Consequently, given the vast literature, a bibliometric analysis of GI in SMEs is presented to evaluate their conceptual structure using Scopus and Web of Science databases through performance and bibliometric mapping with VOSviewer and R software. The results show that this topic is a growing area of research, with 496 articles developed by 1373 authors, 218 journals and 63 countries. The structure shows that the main research topics relate to sustainable business development, green business transformation, sustainable business innovation and performance, sustainable production, barriers, drivers and outcomes, eco-innovation and sustainability, and innovation and knowledge management. This work offers updated and exhaustive information on advances in this field that serve as a guide for SMEs to make informed decisions about innovation strategies, as well as more effective practices and lessons learned from other similar companies. In turn, governments can take these results and design policies and programs to support GI. Finally, this article highlights gaps in the literature that suggest possible avenues for follow-up studies.

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引用次数: 0

Gimmick or genuineness? Exploring the antecedents of AI virtual streamers aversion in live-streaming commerce

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123981

Quan Xiao , Xia Li , Weiling Huang , Xing Zhang

AI virtual streamers are emerging as a novel presence in live-streaming commerce. However, a considerable portion of consumers are still averse to these AI entities. While existing research predominantly emphasizes the positive impacts of AI virtual streamers, it often overlooks the factors contributing to consumer aversion. To address this critical yet underexplored gap, this study employs the antecedent-belief-consequence (ABC) framework to examine the determinants of consumer aversion to AI virtual streamers. Data collected from 402 consumers with a comprehensive understanding of AI virtual streamers was conducted using the partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) approach. The results validate the impact of two key antecedents (i.e., anthropomorphism and technophobia) on the consequences (AI virtual streamers aversion) and explore the underlying mechanism of beliefs through the reflexive stage (i.e., perceived unwarm and perceived incompetent) and the reflective stage (i.e., consumer resonance and disfluency). Additionally, multigroup analysis (MGA) based on self-construal indicates significant group differences, with interdependent (independent) consumers being more likely to exhibit aversion through the perceived unwarm (perceived incompetent) pathway. These findings contribute to the current body of research by clarifying the multi-stage and multi-dimensional processes through which technophobia and anthropomorphism drive AI virtual streamers aversion. Practitioners can leverage these insights to address the underlying causes of consumer aversion, thereby facilitating the integration of AI virtual streamers into live-streaming commerce.

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引用次数: 0

FinTechs, BigTechs and diminishing bank franchise values: Stakeholder perspectives on a disruptive emerging financial ecosystem

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123924

Ioannis (Yiannis) Anagnostopoulos , Toni Sails , George Alexandrou

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty versus urgency: When top management team diversity hinders business model innovation

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123991

Magne S. Angelshaug , Tina Saebi , Lasse B. Lien , Nicolai J. Foss

Firms' efforts to employ more diverse top management teams raise the question of whether diversity helps or hinders business model innovation (BMI) in response to two situations that managers frequently encounter: uncertainty (such as a turbulent, unpredictable environment) and urgency (such as poor financial performance). We contend that while a diverse top management team with a wide range of expertise and ideas to draw from may seem well equipped for BMI, whether it will succeed in promoting BMI depends on key contingencies. Thus, we argue that a diverse top management team will help innovate the business model under conditions of low financial performance as this instills a sense of urgency in the team, whereas environmental turbulence is likely to reinforce uncertainty and conflict among team members which deters innovation. Our analysis of Norwegian CEO-level survey data combined with national registry and accounting data corroborates our hypotheses. In sum, we find clear evidence of the importance of considering context-specific conditions when investigating the impact of top management diversity on BMI. Our study contributes to a more nuanced explanation of why firms, by virtue of their top management team compositions, may fail to innovate business models. For practitioners, our study can guide the purposeful composition of the top management team to match the requirements of firms' business environments.

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引用次数: 0

Riding towards sustainable development in Industry 4.0: Learnings from a case of the bicycle manufacturing company

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123970

Deepak Datta Nirmal , Kapil Gumte , Amrik S. Sohal

The present study conducts case study-based research on a leading bicycle manufacturing company to recognize effective sustainable practices and several enabling and impeding factors. It examines how the crucial enabling factors affect the sustainable practices-performance relationship in the Industry 4.0 era. In doing so, this study uses the “situation, actor, process - learning, action and performance” (SAP-LAP) model and Practice-Based View (PBV) for an in-depth inquiry of the case company. The uniqueness of the current study lies in developing a practice-based theoretical framework that helps in achieving sustainable performance and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings of the study revealed the importance of several practices such as top management commitment towards sustainability, ethical business practices, community development and wellness, compliance with the labour and environmental laws, strategic investment in Industry 4.0 technologies that help in successful transition towards achieving better sustainable performance and SDGs. Further, this study has enlisted various challenges that obstruct organizations to move towards sustainability such as the lack of support from the leadership, absence of proper cycling infrastructure, and the unwillingness of customers to pay premiums for sustainable products. This study emphasized the importance of sustainable innovations and motivates sustainable entrepreneurs in identifying new opportunities.

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引用次数: 0

What next? Nations in the technological race through the 2030

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123987

Daniele Archibugi , Vitantonio Mariella , Antonio Vezzani

This paper investigates the technological trajectories of nations, examining how their current specialization may influence their future technological leadership. By analysing patent data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office, we identify which countries are at the forefront of fast-growing technologies. Nations specializing in these emerging technologies are likely to experience accelerated economic growth, while others may struggle to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, countries tend to stick to areas where they have expertise, making it difficult to shift quickly to new technological fields. However, our findings partly challenge this view. Using predictive models, we project patent trends to 2030, suggesting that countries which were not technologically well-positioned in recent decades may improve their competitiveness, particularly through strategic policy interventions. We also show that future fast-growing technologies may differ significantly from the past.

引用次数: 0

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