Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

英文中文

Toward closing the zipper: Technology readiness and diverse technology use of university students in terms of academic major and gender 走向闭合拉链：大学生在学术专业和性别方面的技术准备和多样化的技术使用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124493

Ville Heilala , Riitta Kelly , Miitta Järvinen , Raija Hämäläinen

Emerging technologies have the potential to transform education, and individuals with different technological orientations and backgrounds should have equal opportunities to harness the benefits. However, the underlying personal characteristics that potentially contribute to differences in technology adoption beyond the issues of technology access and skills have received less attention, especially in a context where access to technology and the possibility of acquiring necessary skills can be considered common. In this study, we found significant variation in university students' technology readiness in Finland regarding their field of study and gender. Students in information technology and natural sciences exhibited higher technology readiness than students in other fields. Also, men reported higher technology readiness than women, especially in innovativeness, suggesting a tendency to adopt new technologies before others. Findings underscore the need to consider the interplay between individual differences in technology readiness and the adoption of novel technologies in education because of a potential risk that individual and technological factors may drive and perpetuate the digital divide. The study concludes with the proposition of the Zipper Model of Digital Equity, which illustrates the digital divide and ongoing efforts toward digital equity in education.

新兴技术有可能改变教育，拥有不同技术取向和背景的个人应该有平等的机会利用这些好处。然而，在技术获取和技能问题之外可能造成技术采用差异的基本个人特征受到的关注较少，特别是在技术获取和获得必要技能的可能性被认为是共同的情况下。在这项研究中，我们发现芬兰大学生的技术准备程度在其学习领域和性别方面存在显著差异。信息技术和自然科学专业的学生比其他专业的学生表现出更高的技术准备程度。此外，男性比女性对技术的准备程度更高，尤其是在创新方面，这表明他们倾向于比其他人更早采用新技术。调查结果强调，有必要考虑技术准备程度的个体差异与教育中新技术的采用之间的相互作用，因为个人和技术因素可能会导致并延续数字鸿沟的潜在风险。该研究最后提出了数字公平的拉链模型，该模型说明了数字鸿沟和在教育中实现数字公平的持续努力。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of intelligent decision support systems on social loafing in the workplace: The role of technology affordance and moral disengagement 智能决策支持系统对工作场所社会懒惰的影响：技术支持和道德脱离的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124482

Dan Song , Zhaohua Deng , Richard Evans

As Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) become increasingly used in the workplace to aid decision-making, employees are prompted to view them as social actors. This human-AI collaboration, however, can lead to a reduction in individual effort. This behavior reflects social loafing, a psychological tendency that can reduce collaborative outcomes and performance. Despite its importance, the underlying antecedents and mechanisms of social loafing in the context of human-AI collaboration remain largely unexplored. Drawing on Affordance Theory and Moral Disengagement Theory (MDT), this study aims to investigate how perceived technology affordance and moral disengagement influence employees' social loafing when collaborating with IDSS. Analysis of survey data from 312 employees of Human Resources (HR) departments in Mainland China indicated that: (1) perceived autonomy, perceived lack of emotion, and perceived lack of achievement visibility positively impact moral disengagement; (2) perceived customizability negatively impacts moral disengagement; (3) moral disengagement positively influences social loafing; and (4) the individual characteristics of AI experience and work experience moderate the relationships between technology affordances and moral disengagement. Theoretically, these findings contribute to the understanding of the antecedents and mechanisms of social loafing in human-AI collaboration. Practically, the study provides guidance for organizational governance and IDSS design strategies aiming to reduce social loafing.

随着智能决策支持系统（IDSS）在工作场所越来越多地用于辅助决策，员工被提示将其视为社会行动者。然而，这种人类与人工智能的合作可能会导致个人努力的减少。这种行为反映了社会懒惰，这是一种会降低合作成果和绩效的心理倾向。尽管它很重要，但在人类与人工智能合作的背景下，社会懒惰的潜在前提和机制在很大程度上仍未被探索。本研究运用供给性理论和道德脱离理论（MDT），旨在探讨感知技术供给性和道德脱离如何影响员工与IDSS合作时的社会懒散行为。对312名中国大陆人力资源部门员工的调查数据分析表明：(1)感知自主性、感知情感缺失和感知成就可视性缺失正向影响道德脱离；(2)感知可定制性对道德脱离产生负向影响；(3)道德脱离正向影响社会惰化；(4)人工智能体验和工作体验的个体特征调节了技术支持与道德脱离之间的关系。从理论上讲，这些发现有助于理解人类与人工智能合作中社会懒惰的前提和机制。在实践中，本研究对旨在减少社会懒惰的组织治理和IDSS设计策略提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Exploring the impact of responsible AI governance on corporate performance: A quasi-natural experiment” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 223 (February 2026) 124425] 《探索负责任的人工智能治理对企业绩效的影响：一项准自然实验》的勘误表。预测。Soc。更改223（2026年2月）124425]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124472

Huosong Xia , Hao Chen , Justin Zuopeng Zhang , Muhammad Mustafa Kamal

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Enhancing supplier innovation capabilities through digital technology integration: A relational perspective” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 223 (February 2026) 124426] “通过数字技术集成提高供应商创新能力：关系视角”的勘误表[技术]。预测。Soc。更改223（2026年2月）124426]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124473

Umair Tanveer , Thinh Gia Hoang , Shamaila Ishaq , Muhammad Mustafa Kamal , Rekha Attri

引用次数: 0

The dual environmental impact of AI technologies: Analyzing direct effects vs. economic growth dynamics 人工智能技术对环境的双重影响：分析直接影响与经济增长动态

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124480

Zahoor Ahmed

Unlike past studies, this research makes a novel contribution by analyzing the dual environmental impact of artificial intelligence (AI), including both its direct effects and its indirect effects through economic growth, on the load capacity factor (LCF), a comprehensive proxy for environmental sustainability, controlling the influence of political globalization (POG), renewable energy (REN), and political corruption (PCR). Analyzing panel data from 1996 to 2021 for the 10 largest economies, the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) is employed to uncover heterogeneous impacts across the distribution. Furthermore, the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), the Driscoll-Kraay (DK) standard errors, and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) are employed for robustness. The empirical analysis reveals that AI directly reduces LCF across all quantiles, indicating that AI adoption hampers environmental sustainability. However, the moderating effects of AI on LCF through economic growth are positive, implying that AI, indirectly through economic growth, can contribute to environmental sustainability. Both PCR and POG contribute to environmental degradation, while the use of green energy augments the LCF with an increasing impact. Economic growth poses varying effects on the LCF at different percentiles. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers, offering a significant contribution to the sustainable development literature.

与以往的研究不同，本研究通过分析人工智能（AI）对环境的双重影响，包括其直接影响和通过经济增长对负载能力因子（LCF）的间接影响，对环境可持续性的综合代表，控制政治全球化（POG），可再生能源（REN）和政治腐败（PCR）的影响做出了新颖的贡献。本文分析了1996年至2021年10个最大经济体的面板数据，采用矩量分位数回归（MM-QR）方法揭示了分布中的异质性影响。此外，采用可行广义最小二乘（FGLS）、Driscoll-Kraay （DK）标准误差和面板校正标准误差（PCSEs）进行鲁棒性分析。实证分析表明，人工智能直接降低了所有分位数的LCF，表明人工智能的采用阻碍了环境的可持续性。然而，人工智能通过经济增长对LCF的调节作用是正向的，这意味着人工智能通过经济增长间接地促进了环境的可持续性。PCR和POG都对环境退化有影响，而绿色能源的使用增加了LCF，影响越来越大。经济增长对不同百分位数的LCF有不同的影响。这些发现为政策制定者提供了重要的见解，为可持续发展文献做出了重大贡献。

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引用次数: 0

A promise-attentive triple embeddedness framework, applied to cellular foods 一个承诺-关注三重嵌入框架，应用于细胞食品

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124466

Mads Dahl Gjefsen

By conceptualizing embeddedness as integral to how incumbent firms evaluate technology promises, we might gain a clearer understanding of the roles these actors could play in sustainability transitions. Geels' Triple Embeddedness Framework (TEF) is traditionally applied to long-term historical analysis of firms-in-industries in the context of grand challenges; here, the framework is extended to enable analyses of technology promise dynamics, as conceptualized in cultural political economy terms. The promise-attentive TEF demarcates a global universal realm of promises from a contextual realm wherein pressures are experienced and strategies employed. The framework is applied to a study of Norwegian food system actors' views on cellular food (CF), which encompasses cultured, in-vitro meat and precision fermentation. The analysis shows how globally articulated promises become interpreted in relation to national-level factors, which not only filter pressures but also give direction to hypothetical response strategies. Empirically, the article documents skepticism among incumbents regarding CF's global uptake potential and food system transformation promises. Conceptually, the article elaborates on how the promise-attentive TEF might inform future research into technology promises as a distinct phenomenon across transition domains (e.g. health, energy, digitalization), via attention to characteristic processes in incumbents' promise evaluation, including boundary-drawing, scalar attachments, and digging deep.

通过将嵌入性概念化为现有企业如何评估技术承诺的组成部分，我们可能更清楚地了解这些参与者在可持续性转型中可能发挥的作用。Geels的三重嵌入性框架（TEF）传统上应用于大挑战背景下的行业企业的长期历史分析；在这里，该框架被扩展为能够分析技术承诺动态，如文化政治经济学术语的概念。关注承诺的TEF将承诺的全球普遍领域与经历压力和采用策略的上下文领域区分开来。该框架适用于挪威食品系统演员对细胞食品（CF）的看法的研究，其中包括培养，体外肉和精密发酵。分析显示了全球明确的承诺如何与国家层面的因素相关联，这些因素不仅过滤了压力，而且为假设的应对策略提供了方向。从经验上看，本文记录了现任者对CF全球吸收潜力和粮食系统转型承诺的怀疑态度。从概念上讲，本文详细阐述了关注承诺的TEF如何通过关注在位者承诺评估中的特征过程（包括边界绘制、标量附加和深入挖掘），为未来的技术承诺研究提供信息，将其作为一种跨过渡领域（如健康、能源、数字化）的独特现象。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the impact of AI investments on waste management and mitigation from the Lens of sustainable circular economy 从可持续循环经济的角度探讨人工智能投资对废物管理和缓解的影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124468

Shanshan Li , Ummara Razi , Hawazen Almugren , Leilei Zhang , Aradhana Galgotia

Although artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting environmental and socio-economic progress in developed countries, its role in waste reduction, management, and recycling remains limited. Hence, this study explores the role of AI investments in waste management (WGN) and waste mitigation efforts in G7 economies through quarterly data from 2012Q1 to 2022Q4. In doing so, several econometric techniques were applied, which range from diagnostic tests for unit root and multicollinearity issues, while the primary method used was quantile regression due to the nonlinearity of the data. The outcomes show that AI's impact increases from lower to higher quantiles, from Q_15th − 0.001 towards Q_75th 0.030. In other words, AI is efficient in areas where WGN is low. However, WGN might increase due to AI, where the waste is already high due to the acceleration of industrial sectors and consumption. Furthermore, industrial productivity has a positive but insignificant impact, while urbanization has a negative and significant impact on WGN across quantiles. Air pollution has asymmetrical effects on WGN in both models. Novel policies that adopt AI technologies and applications and reduce air pollution should acknowledge the rising significance of waste management and circular economic models.

尽管人工智能（AI）正在推动发达国家的环境和社会经济进步，但它在减少废物、管理和回收方面的作用仍然有限。因此，本研究通过2012Q1至2022Q4的季度数据，探讨了人工智能投资在G7经济体废物管理（WGN）和废物减排工作中的作用。在此过程中，应用了几种计量经济学技术，其中包括对单位根和多重共线性问题的诊断测试，而由于数据的非线性，使用的主要方法是分位数回归。结果表明，人工智能的影响从低到高的分位数增加，从q15 - 0.001到q75 - 0.030。换句话说，人工智能在WGN低的区域是有效的。然而，由于人工智能，WGN可能会增加，由于工业部门和消费的加速，浪费已经很高。此外，工业生产率对WGN的影响为正但不显著，而城市化对WGN的影响为负但显著。在两个模型中，空气污染对WGN的影响是不对称的。采用人工智能技术和应用并减少空气污染的新政策应承认废物管理和循环经济模式日益重要。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing fun and function: How gamification designs and family communication shape continuous usage in online learning platforms 平衡乐趣和功能：游戏化设计和家庭交流如何塑造在线学习平台的持续使用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124464

Tianyi Ma , Bowen Zheng , Wei Wang , Hefu Liu

Online learning platforms are increasingly integral to K-12 education, but face persistent challenges with high dropout rates. While gamification is widely employed to boost engagement, there is limited research on the underlying mechanisms through which different gamification designs influence students' continuous usage intentions (CUI). This study addresses these gaps by investigating how achievement, social, and immersion gamification designs impact perceived hedonic (PHV) and utilitarian values (PUV), which in turn influence CUI. It also explores the moderating role of conversation-oriented family communication pattern (CFCP), a critical but understudied factor in K-12 education. Using a mixed-method approach that combines moderated mediation analysis and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study surveys 212 users of online learning platforms in central China. Results show that achievement and immersion designs are positively related to CUI through PHV, while achievement and social designs are positively related to CUI via PUV. Moreover, high CFCP strengthens the positive relationship between achievement and immersion designs on CUI via PHV, but weakens the relationship between achievement and social designs on CUI via PUV. These findings provide valuable insights for online learning platform designers and educators, offering guidance on how to tailor gamification strategies to improve student engagement and retention.

在线学习平台日益成为K-12教育不可或缺的一部分，但面临着高辍学率的持续挑战。虽然游戏化被广泛用于提高参与度，但关于不同游戏化设计如何影响学生持续使用意图（CUI）的潜在机制的研究有限。本研究通过调查成就、社交和沉浸式游戏化设计如何影响感知享乐（PHV）和实用价值（PUV）来解决这些差距，而感知享乐（PHV）和实用价值反过来又影响CUI。本文还探讨了以对话为导向的家庭沟通模式（CFCP）的调节作用，这是K-12教育中一个关键但尚未得到充分研究的因素。本研究采用有调节中介分析和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）相结合的混合方法，对中部地区212名在线学习平台用户进行了调查。结果表明，成就设计和沉浸设计通过PHV与CUI正相关，而成就设计和社交设计通过PUV与CUI正相关。此外，高CFCP通过PHV强化了成就与沉浸设计之间的正相关关系，而通过PUV削弱了成就与社交设计之间的正相关关系。这些发现为在线学习平台设计师和教育工作者提供了有价值的见解，为如何定制游戏化策略以提高学生参与度和保留率提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

How generative AI adoption affects supply chain resilience: An operations and supply chain management perspective 生成式人工智能的采用如何影响供应链弹性：从运营和供应链管理的角度

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124446

Jiguang Guo , Fu Jia , Lujie Chen

Generative AI drives profound societal transformations, and there is an urgent need to explore its potential in enhancing business resilience and sustainability. However, its influence on supply chain resilience remains empirically underexplored. Drawing on the operations and supply chain management (OSCM) perspective, this research aims to examine how generative AI improves or impedes supply chain resilience, while exploring the moderating effects of operational capability and supply chain concentration. Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2017 to 2022, we employ fixed-effects models and a series of robustness checks to test the predictions. We discover that firms' generative AI enhances their supply chain resilience, and this effect is more pronounced among high-tech companies. Drawing on dynamic capability theory, this research sheds new light on the positive effect of operational capability (i.e., operational efficiency and operational slack), and the negative effect of supply chain concentration (i.e., customer concentration and supplier concentration) in shaping the impact of generative AI adoption on supply chain resilience. This study provides novel empirical evidence for the association between generative AI adoption and supply chain resilience and identifies key OSCM-related contingency factors in this relationship.

生成式人工智能推动了深刻的社会变革，迫切需要探索其在增强商业弹性和可持续性方面的潜力。然而，其对供应链弹性的影响仍未得到实证研究。从运营和供应链管理（OSCM）的角度出发，本研究旨在研究生成式人工智能如何提高或阻碍供应链弹性，同时探索运营能力和供应链集中度的调节作用。本文利用2017 - 2022年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，采用固定效应模型和一系列稳健性检验对预测结果进行检验。我们发现，企业的生成式人工智能增强了其供应链弹性，这种效应在高科技公司中更为明显。借助动态能力理论，本研究揭示了运营能力（即运营效率和运营松弛）和供应链集中度（即客户集中度和供应商集中度）在形成生成式人工智能采用对供应链弹性的影响方面的积极影响。本研究为生成式人工智能采用与供应链弹性之间的关系提供了新的经验证据，并确定了这种关系中与oscm相关的关键偶然性因素。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Forecasting inclusive futures: Fintech, capability expansion, and livelihood pathways in urban Indian slums – A mixed-methods analysis” [Published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change, volume- 221, December (2025)] “预测包容性未来：金融科技、能力扩张和印度城市贫民窟的生计途径——混合方法分析”的勘误表[发表于《技术预测与社会变革》，第221卷，2025年12月]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124463

Jaskirat Singh , Gurdip Singh Batra , Sarvjeet Kaur Chatrath

引用次数: 0

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