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Designing a global resilient vaccine supply chain: Forecasting with hybrid neural network 全球弹性疫苗供应链设计：混合神经网络预测

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124524

Ehsan Torshizi , Fatemeh Sabouhi , Ali Bozorgi-Amiri

In the present research, a hybrid decision-making and data-driven optimization approach is developed based on economic management theory to design a global COVID-19 vaccine supply chain. Economic management theory includes three complementary theories of information processing, transaction cost economics, and the resource-based view/dynamic capabilities to examine the logic of the proposed approach. The first phase involves assessing the efficiency of foreign suppliers and manufacturers through non-radial data envelopment analysis. In this phase, the foreign exchange rate parameter is forecasted using the hybrid neural network. Then, the second phase introduces a multi-objective optimization model for designing a vaccine supply chain under uncertain conditions. Flow complexity, node complexity, and node criticality are considered in the model to increase the overall resilience of the network. To deal with the uncertainty of the problem, a stochastic robust optimization model is employed. The objective functions aim to maximize supply chain efficiency and minimize the non-resilience of the network and the total cost. The approach implemented in this research is validated by an actual-world case study in Iran. The findings highlight that resilience indicators can improve economic costs by up to 13% and network efficiency by up to 18% under the worst-case pandemic scenario. Also, the implemented forecasting algorithm performs better than other methods based on R2, RMSE, MSE, and MAE metrics. Lastly, a comprehensive analysis is performed on the computational results obtained, which derives some practical managerial insights.

本文基于经济管理理论，提出了一种基于决策和数据驱动的混合优化方法来设计全球COVID-19疫苗供应链。经济管理理论包括三个互补的理论：信息处理、交易成本经济学和基于资源的观点/动态能力，以检验所提出方法的逻辑。第一阶段涉及通过非径向数据包络分析评估外国供应商和制造商的效率。在这一阶段，使用混合神经网络对外汇汇率参数进行预测。第二阶段引入了不确定条件下疫苗供应链设计的多目标优化模型。模型中考虑了流复杂性、节点复杂性和节点临界性，以提高网络的整体弹性。为了处理问题的不确定性，采用了随机鲁棒优化模型。目标函数旨在使供应链效率最大化，使网络的非弹性和总成本最小化。本研究中采用的方法通过伊朗的实际案例研究得到了验证。研究结果强调，在最坏的大流行情景下，弹性指标可以将经济成本提高13%，将网络效率提高18%。此外，实现的预测算法比基于R2、RMSE、MSE和MAE指标的其他方法表现更好。最后，对计算结果进行了综合分析，得出了一些实用的管理见解。

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引用次数: 0

Invention complexity, latent innovation capabilities, and economic development in upper middle-income countries 发明复杂性、潜在创新能力与中高收入国家的经济发展

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124565

Muhammad Salar Khan , Maurice Kugler , Chad A. Smith

This paper examines how upper middle-income countries (UMICs) transition from imitation- to innovation-led growth, and whether sustained innovation capabilities drive long-run economic development. Building on the World Bank's World Development Report 2024 (WDR 2024), we develop a unified theoretical and methodological framework integrating endogenous growth, Schumpeterian growth, economic complexity, and entrepreneurial self-discovery approaches. We introduce two novel indicators: the Invention Complexity Index (ICI), which measures the diversity and sophistication of national invention capabilities, and the Invention–Production Complexity Gap (IPCG), which captures latent innovation capabilities as the gap between invention and production capabilities. Using European Patent Office PATSTAT data (1987–2019) and a panel of national indicators for 67 countries, we estimate pooled OLS models with fixed effects across three income-range samples. The results show that invention complexity is strongly associated with income levels and that latent innovation capabilities become a robust predictor of growth within the UMIC range: a one-standard-deviation increase in the IPCG corresponds to a 0.50% increase in annual growth. They also reveal divergence across countries—clear evidence of an upper middle-income trap. These findings provide empirical support for the middle-income trap hypothesis, the Schumpeterian distance-to-frontier hypothesis, and the WDR 2024 dual-transition framework, revealing that the shift from imitation- to innovation-led growth is a stage-specific challenge concentrated in the UMIC range. The study contributes new theoretical and methodological tools for measuring invention complexity and latent innovation capabilities and offers policy insights on aligning innovation and industrial strategies to foster structural transformation, escape the middle-income trap, and advance toward high-income status.

本文考察了中高收入国家如何从模仿导向型增长向创新导向型增长过渡，以及持续创新能力是否能推动长期经济发展。在世界银行《2024年世界发展报告》（WDR 2024）的基础上，我们开发了一个统一的理论和方法框架，整合了内生增长、熊彼特增长、经济复杂性和企业家自我发现方法。我们引入了两个新的指标：发明复杂性指数（ICI）和发明-生产复杂性差距（IPCG），前者衡量国家发明能力的多样性和复杂性，后者衡量发明和生产能力之间的差距，即潜在创新能力。利用欧洲专利局PATSTAT数据（1987-2019）和67个国家的国家指标面板，我们估计了在三个收入范围样本中具有固定效应的汇总OLS模型。结果表明，发明复杂性与收入水平密切相关，潜在创新能力成为UMIC范围内增长的有力预测指标：IPCG每增加一个标准差，其年增长率就会增加0.50%。它们还揭示了各国之间的差异——这是中高收入陷阱的明确证据。这些发现为中等收入陷阱假说、熊彼特前沿距离假说和《世界发展报告2024》双重转型框架提供了实证支持，揭示了从模仿导向型增长向创新导向型增长的转变是一个特定阶段的挑战，集中在UMIC范围内。该研究为衡量发明复杂性和潜在创新能力提供了新的理论和方法工具，并为协调创新与产业战略以促进结构转型、摆脱中等收入陷阱、迈向高收入水平提供了政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating sustainable growth: Green innovation as a mediator between CSR Engagement and firm value in emerging markets 引导可持续增长：新兴市场中绿色创新作为企业社会责任参与与企业价值之间的中介

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124566

Zhe Sun , Liang Zhao , Hind Alofaysan , Bhumika Gupta , Vikram Kumar Sharma

Research on the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR), green innovation, and firm value remains contentious, debating whether CSR acts as a value-enhancing driver or a cost-inducing burden; this study constructs a unified theoretical framework—drawing on the attention-based view, stakeholder theory, and institutional theory—to reconcile these perspectives, finding empirically that CSR engagement significantly enhances firm value by promoting green innovation. We uncover critical boundary conditions: financial constraints significantly weaken the CSR–green innovation link, while executive compensation incentives significantly strengthen it, and ownership type (SOE vs. POE) moderates all these relationships; these results deepen the theoretical understanding of the CSR–innovation–value nexus and offer actionable insights for firms and policymakers pursuing sustainable growth in emerging economies.

关于企业社会责任、绿色创新和企业价值之间关系的研究一直存在争议，争论企业社会责任是价值提升的驱动因素还是成本诱导的负担；本研究构建了一个统一的理论框架，利用关注基础理论、利益相关者理论和制度理论来调和这些观点，实证发现企业社会责任参与通过促进绿色创新显著提高了企业价值。我们发现了关键的边界条件：财务约束显著削弱了企业社会责任与绿色创新之间的联系，而高管薪酬激励显著加强了这种联系，所有权类型（国有企业与POE）调节了所有这些关系；这些结果加深了对企业社会责任-创新-价值关系的理论理解，并为新兴经济体中追求可持续增长的企业和政策制定者提供了可操作的见解。

引用次数: 0

How does corporate greenwashing affect firm resilience –Causal inference utilizing dual machine learning techniques 企业“漂绿”如何影响企业弹性——利用双机器学习技术的因果推理

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124561

Fu Jia , Dingguo Hu , Lujie Chen

In the context of accelerating climate change, corporate greenwashing (CGW), has emerged as a critical governance risk undermining long-term sustainable development. Grounded in dynamic capability theory supplemented by paradox theory, this study unveils systematically the causal mechanisms through which CGW affects firm resilience for the first time as far as we are aware. Drawing on panel data from Chinese listed manufacturing firms between 2017 and 2023, we construct a novel CGW index using text analysis and measure firm resilience via the volatility of total factor productivity. To address endogeneity concerns and accommodate high-dimensional controls, we adopt a double machine learning approach. Our findings show: (1) CGW significantly undermines firm resilience by distorting the dynamic capability cycle of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring; (2) financing constraints act as a negative mediating mechanism in that CGW exacerbates information asymmetries, thereby raising financing costs, whereas operational slack functions as a positive mediator, as redundant resources provide short-term buffers against external shocks; and (3) environmental regulation intensity and investor attention positively moderate this negative relationship, meaning private enterprises exhibit greater vulnerability due to limited access to policy-based resources. This research contributes to the theoretical advancement of firm resilience by introducing CGW as a “dark side” capability and identifies mechanisms of internal mediation and external moderation. The findings provide practical insights for firms aiming to mitigate CGW, optimize resource allocation, and enhance risk management.

在气候变化加速的背景下，企业洗绿（CGW）已成为破坏长期可持续发展的关键治理风险。本研究以动态能力理论为基础，以悖论理论为补充，首次系统地揭示了集体绩效影响企业弹性的因果机制。本文利用2017 - 2023年中国制造业上市公司的面板数据，利用文本分析构建了一个新的CGW指数，并通过全要素生产率的波动来衡量企业的弹性。为了解决内生性问题并适应高维控制，我们采用了双重机器学习方法。研究结果表明：(1)CGW通过扭曲感知、捕获和重构的动态能力周期，显著破坏了企业弹性；(2)融资约束为负向中介机制，即CGW加剧了信息不对称，从而提高了融资成本；而业务松弛为正向中介机制，即冗余资源为应对外部冲击提供了短期缓冲；(3)环境监管强度和投资者关注度正向调节这一负相关关系，即民营企业由于获得政策性资源的机会有限而表现出更大的脆弱性。本研究将CGW作为一种“黑暗面”能力引入企业弹性理论，并确定了内部中介和外部调节机制。研究结果可为企业减轻CGW、优化资源配置和加强风险管理提供实践见解。

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引用次数: 0

Elderly consumers' reaction to an eHealth app: The critical role of relational-emotional aspects of technology adoption 老年消费者对电子健康应用程序的反应：技术采用中关系情感方面的关键作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124558

Shuili Du , Richard P. Bagozzi , Chunyan Xie , Kristi Bjørnes Skeie Keleghan , Tatiana A. Iakovleva , Elin Merethe Oftedal

Given the aging population and the exponential growth in digital health, investigating elderly consumers' eHealth technology adoption is an important and timely topic. This research examines the relational-emotional aspects of technology adoption among the elderly using a real-world eHealth app aimed at addressing malnutrition – a critical health issue among the elderly population. Results from two studies highlight the important roles of the perceived effect of the eHealth app on caretaker relationships and anticipated positive emotions in elderly's adoption of the eHealth app. Further, we show that anthropomorphizing the eHealth app could backfire among elderly consumers with low health literacy, but not among those with high health literacy. By identifying and validating relational and emotional pathways to adoption, our study deepens and extends current models of technology acceptance. It also contributes to the growing discourse on inclusive digital health by highlighting the unique complexity of elderly consumers' decision-making processes.

鉴于人口老龄化和数字健康的指数增长，调查老年消费者对电子健康技术的采用是一个重要而及时的话题。本研究使用现实世界的电子健康应用程序，旨在解决老年人营养不良的关键健康问题，研究老年人采用技术的关系-情感方面。两项研究的结果强调了电子健康应用程序对看护关系的感知效果和老年人采用电子健康应用程序时预期的积极情绪的重要作用。此外，我们表明，人格化电子健康应用程序可能会在健康素养低的老年消费者中适得其反，但在健康素养高的老年消费者中却不会。通过识别和验证采用的关系和情感途径，我们的研究深化和扩展了当前的技术接受模型。它还通过突出老年消费者决策过程的独特复杂性，促进了关于包容性数字健康的日益增长的讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Diagnosing pharmaceutical regulatory agencies: A metacybernetic framework for innovation and governance 诊断药品监管机构：创新和治理的元控制论框架

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124584

Gandolfo Dominici , Maurice Yolles

This study explores how pharmaceutical regulatory agencies can be understood and enhanced by applying a metacybernetic framework. It addresses the key research question: How can regulatory agencies in the pharmaceutical sector function as adaptive systems capable of timely sensing and evaluating emerging technologies, while preserving systemic safeguards for public health and safety?

Drawing on Mindset Agency Theory (MAT), it applies a triadic subagency model to diagnose regulators' internal dynamics. Regulators are interpreted as evolving living systems that are capable of reflexive learning, stakeholder engagement, and ethical orientation. The model is grounded in systems theory and social cybernetics and is supported by examples from regulatory practices.

This first application of the metacybernetic subagency framework to pharmaceutical regulation, offers a novel perspective for reform in the face of rising technological complexity, public scrutiny, and global health challenges.

The triadic framework shows that agencies enhance adaptability by cultivating affective responsiveness (engagement), cognitive capability (data assimilation and learning), and spiritual integrity (ethical commitment). Current models often underutilise these capacities, resulting in rigid, siloed decision-making.

This study extends metacybernetics into public governance, opening new avenues for analysing institutional reflexivity, resilience, and regulatory ethics.

The findings suggest practical reforms, including ethical reviews, patient engagement, adaptive approvals, and AI-augmented decision support.

本研究探讨了如何通过应用元控制论框架来理解和加强药品监管机构。它解决了关键的研究问题：制药部门的监管机构如何作为能够及时感知和评估新兴技术的适应性系统发挥作用，同时保持对公共卫生和安全的系统性保障？借鉴思维代理理论（MAT），运用三元子代理模型来诊断监管机构的内部动态。监管机构被解读为不断进化的生命系统，具有反身学习、利益相关者参与和道德导向的能力。该模型以系统理论和社会控制论为基础，并由监管实践的例子支持。这是元控制论子机构框架首次应用于药品监管，为面对日益增长的技术复杂性、公众监督和全球卫生挑战的改革提供了一个新的视角。三合一框架表明，机构通过培养情感反应（参与）、认知能力（数据同化和学习）和精神完整性（道德承诺）来增强适应性。目前的模型往往没有充分利用这些能力，导致僵化的、孤立的决策。本研究将元控制论扩展到公共治理领域，为分析制度反身性、弹性和监管伦理开辟了新的途径。研究结果建议进行切实可行的改革，包括伦理审查、患者参与、适应性批准和人工智能增强的决策支持。

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引用次数: 0

An activity system perspective on smart product service systems 智能产品服务系统的活动系统视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124557

Isabel Fischer , Marcel Papert , Alexander Leischnig , Günter Prockl

Smart product-service systems (PSS) offer manufacturers the potential to create superior value for customers. Their development and commercialization, however, often force manufacturers to complement own competencies and resources with those from external partners, thus underlining the need for strategic collaboration. This paper aims to advance the knowledge about smart PSS by analyzing configurations of actors and activities that contribute to the creation smart PSS. Using an activity system perspective and a configurational approach, we explain the creation of smart PSS. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we analyze data from a qualitative study and identify two equifinal configurations for the creation of smart PSS. Our findings advance the smart PSS literature by uncovering the interplay between critical parameters of an activity system and environmental factors. As a managerial contribution, we provide templates for designing new activity systems to generate smart PSS.

智能产品服务系统（PSS）为制造商提供了为客户创造卓越价值的潜力。然而，它们的开发和商业化常常迫使制造商用外部伙伴的能力和资源来补充自己的能力和资源，从而强调了战略合作的需要。本文旨在通过分析创建智能PSS的参与者和活动的配置，提高对智能PSS的认识。使用活动系统视角和配置方法，我们解释了智能PSS的创建。使用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA），我们分析了定性研究的数据，并确定了创建智能PSS的两种等效配置。我们的研究结果通过揭示活动系统的关键参数与环境因素之间的相互作用，推动了智能PSS文献的发展。作为管理方面的贡献，我们提供了设计新的活动系统以生成智能PSS的模板。

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the path to the fourth industrial revolution: Exploring technology adoption and firm-level barriers 揭示第四次工业革命之路：探索技术采用和企业层面的障碍

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124563

Chinh Hoang-Duc , Kien Hoang-Le , Tuan Nguyen-Anh , Linh Nguyen-Thi-Thuy , Uyen Nguyen-Dinh , Huong Nguyen-Thi-Lan , Nguyen To-The

Technology adoption is an important driving force for economic growth. This study investigates the determinants of technology adoption among firms in Vietnam using nationally representative enterprise survey data focusing on prominent technology in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). It focuses on three main barriers to adoption – financial constraints, human resource limitations, and perceived practicality – and assesses their empirical relevance towards different measurements of technology adoption levels. Our analysis employs logit, ordered logit, and Poisson regressions, complemented by inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment to represent selection on observables. The findings indicate that financial capacity does not significantly influence firms' adoption decisions. In contrast, human resource factors, especially firms' information technology capability, play a crucial role by underscoring the importance of digital skills in the workforce. Additionally, firms' perceptions of the practical value of technologies, particularly regarding competitiveness and profitability, are strongly associated with higher adoption levels. The findings offer policy-relevant insights for promoting effective 4IR technology adoption in developing economies.

技术应用是经济增长的重要动力。本研究利用具有全国代表性的企业调查数据，探讨了越南企业采用技术的决定因素，重点关注第四次工业革命（4IR）中的突出技术。它侧重于采用的三个主要障碍——财政限制、人力资源限制和可感知的实用性——并评估它们与技术采用水平的不同度量的经验相关性。我们的分析采用logit、有序logit和泊松回归，辅以逆概率加权和回归调整来表示对可观测值的选择。研究结果表明，财务能力对企业的采用决策没有显著影响。相比之下，人力资源因素，特别是企业的信息技术能力，通过强调数字技能在劳动力中的重要性，发挥了至关重要的作用。此外，企业对技术实用价值的认识，特别是对竞争力和盈利能力的认识，与较高的采用率密切相关。研究结果为促进发展中经济体有效采用第四次工业革命技术提供了与政策相关的见解。

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引用次数: 0

How does digital intelligent knowledge orchestration enhance green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises? Based on the perspective of enterprise relationship resilience 数字化智能知识编排如何促进制造企业绿色服务创新？基于企业关系弹性的视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124575

Hongna Tian, Liyan Zhao

In today's complex and dynamic market environment of digital intelligence, manufacturing enterprises regard green service innovation as a crucial means to expand revenue sources and engender competitive advantages. Drawing on Stimulus-Organism-Response theory, this study constructs the ‘digital intelligent knowledge (stimulus)–capability building (organism)–innovation behaviour (response)’ research framework, and empirically examines the impact of digital intelligent knowledge orchestration, from both scale and efficiency perspectives, on the green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises. Next, it investigates the mediating effect of enterprise relationship resilience from the perspective of research and development, supply, and governance. Finally, it examines the enterprise reputation's moderating effect. The results show that: (1) Digital intelligent knowledge orchestration scale and efficiency can significantly promote the green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises. (2) Enterprise relationship resilience positively mediates this relationship. (3) Enterprise reputation has a positive moderating effect.

在当今复杂动态的数字智能市场环境下，制造企业将绿色服务创新作为扩大收入来源、形成竞争优势的重要手段。基于刺激-有机体-反应理论，构建了“数字智能知识（刺激）-能力建设（有机体）-创新行为（反应）”研究框架，并从规模和效率两个角度实证检验了数字智能知识编排对制造企业绿色服务创新的影响。其次，从研发、供给和治理三个角度考察企业关系弹性的中介作用。最后，考察了企业声誉的调节效应。研究结果表明：(1)数字化智能知识编排的规模和效率对制造企业绿色服务创新具有显著的促进作用。(2)企业关系弹性正向中介这一关系。(3)企业声誉具有正向调节作用。

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引用次数: 0

Sustainable last-mile delivery: Understanding perceived benefits and risks of AI-automated delivery drones in France 可持续的最后一英里交付：了解法国人工智能自动交付无人机的预期收益和风险

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124576

Lars Meyer-Waarden , Julien Cloarec , Stéphane Salgado , Vincent Favarin

This study investigates the adoption of delivery drones in last-mile logistics by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2) with constructs related to well-being, perceived technology risk, privacy concerns, and environmental concerns. Drawing on a 2x2x2 experimental design involving 3212 French participants, we examine how physical accidents, cyberattacks, product criticality, and environmental values shape consumers' performance expectancy, social influence, risk perception, and behavioral intentions. The findings show that environmental concerns enhance the positive impact of performance expectancy and social influence on well-being, while unexpectedly reducing the negative effect of privacy concerns. Product criticality significantly weakens the relationship between well-being and adoption intention. This paper contributes theoretically by integrating sustainability and perceived risk theory into UTAUT2, thereby advancing understanding of how consumers evaluate novel autonomous technologies under conditions of uncertainty and ecological awareness.

本研究通过扩展“技术接受与使用统一理论2”（UTAUT2），用与福祉、感知技术风险、隐私问题和环境问题相关的概念来调查无人机在最后一英里物流中的应用。利用涉及3212名法国参与者的2x2x2实验设计，我们研究了物理事故、网络攻击、产品临界性和环境价值如何影响消费者的绩效预期、社会影响、风险感知和行为意图。研究结果表明，环境关注增强了绩效预期和社会影响对幸福感的积极影响，同时出人意料地降低了隐私关注的负面影响。产品临界性显著削弱幸福感与采用意愿之间的关系。本文通过将可持续性和感知风险理论整合到UTAUT2中，从而促进了对消费者如何在不确定性和生态意识条件下评估新型自主技术的理解。

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引用次数: 0