Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第2页

Deep transitions and the evolution of the digital meta-regime 深度转型和数字元制度的演变

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124526

Phil Johnstone , Laur Kanger , Johan Schot

Digital technologies are increasingly framed as important tools to address grand challenges such as climate change. While there is an increasing body of research on the role of digitalisation in unfolding sustainability transitions, it has been recognised that there is a lack of longer-term historical analysis of the evolution of digitalisation in the transitions field. This paper interrogates the multi-system evolution of digital technologies and the historical processes that have shaped the particular directionality characterising the information society. To do this, we mobilise and develop the Deep Transitions framework (DT). The DT framework has studied the mechanisms and processes that shaped the emergence and consolidation of mass production. However, the fifth surge of economic growth (identified as being initiated by the invention of the microprocessor and innovations in telecommunications), has yet to be analysed using the framework. We carry out a case study analysis developing a novel interpretation of digitalisation understood in terms of multi-system transitions processes and the consolidation of a meta-regime. In so doing, we contribute to a validation of DT theory and the analysis of multiple systems dynamics. We discuss our findings in the broader context of great surges of development and sustainability transitions literatures. We posit that the 5th surge is in its maturity phase, and that sustainability has had a limited role in shaping long-term path dependencies of digitalisation.

数字技术日益成为应对气候变化等重大挑战的重要工具。虽然越来越多的研究表明数字化在可持续转型中的作用，但人们已经认识到，缺乏对转型领域数字化演变的长期历史分析。本文探讨了数字技术的多系统演化，以及形成信息社会特有方向性的历史过程。为此，我们动员并开发了深度转换框架（DT）。DT框架研究了形成大规模生产的出现和巩固的机制和过程。然而，经济增长的第五次激增（被认为是由微处理器的发明和电信创新引发的）尚未使用该框架进行分析。我们进行了一个案例研究分析，开发了一种新的数字化解释，以多系统过渡过程和元制度的巩固为基础。在这样做，我们有助于验证DT理论和多系统动力学的分析。我们在发展和可持续性过渡文献的大浪潮的更广泛背景下讨论我们的发现。我们认为，第五次浪潮正处于成熟阶段，可持续性在塑造数字化的长期路径依赖方面的作用有限。

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引用次数: 0

Digital technology diffusion through supply chain orchestration 数字技术通过供应链协调扩散

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554

Lei Shen , Qingyue Shi , Debadrita Panda , Vinit Parida

Digital technology diffusion is reshaping innovation across supply chain dynamics and ecosystem partners. Prior work often looks at one firm or uniform settings, missing how technology diffusion need to be orchestrated by ecosystem leader across diverse suppliers and other actors. To address this gap, this study employs an exploratory case study of the intelligent vehicle ecosystem, focusing on an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and six supply chain partners. Although positioned in the supply chain, these actors influence the wider ecosystem thereby affecting technology diffusion beyond dyadic ties. Drawing on 35 interviews, observations, and secondary data, the research advances the technology diffusion and innovation ecosystem literatures in three ways. First, it highlights the evolving role of focal actor as ecosystem leader, demonstrating their progression from transformational to collaborative and ultimately empowering roles across different phases of digital technology diffusion. Second, it identifies three orchestration mechanisms, namely knowledge orchestration, incentive aligned orchestration, and market driven orchestration, and specifies when each should be deployed in response to partner-specific requirements. Third, it offers a novel perspective on how ecosystem leaders shift value propositions to include both core and peripheral partners. From a practical standpoint, the study offers OEMs actionable guidance to diagnose their diffusion context and select appropriate orchestration mechanism. It also provides policymakers with insights for designing targeted instruments that strengthen digital diffusion and support sustainable industrial growth.

数字技术的扩散正在重塑供应链动态和生态系统合作伙伴之间的创新。之前的工作通常只关注一家公司或统一的环境，而忽略了生态系统领导者如何在不同的供应商和其他参与者之间协调技术扩散。为了解决这一差距，本研究采用了智能汽车生态系统的探索性案例研究，重点关注原始设备制造商（OEM）和六个供应链合作伙伴。尽管这些行为体处于供应链中，但它们影响着更广泛的生态系统，从而影响着超越二元关系的技术扩散。利用35个访谈、观察和二手数据，本研究从三个方面推进了技术扩散和创新生态系统的研究。首先，它强调了焦点参与者作为生态系统领导者的角色演变，展示了他们在数字技术扩散的不同阶段从转型到协作并最终赋予权力的角色的进展。其次，它确定了三种编排机制，即知识编排、激励一致的编排和市场驱动的编排，并指定了应在何时部署每种机制以响应特定于合作伙伴的需求。第三，它提供了一个关于生态系统领导者如何将价值主张转变为包括核心和外围合作伙伴的新视角。从实践的角度来看，本研究为oem厂商诊断其扩散环境和选择合适的协调机制提供了可操作的指导。它还为决策者提供了设计有针对性的工具的见解，以加强数字传播和支持可持续的工业增长。

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引用次数: 0

Digitalization of the Olympics and legitimacy of the Olympic virtual series: An environmental psychology perspective 奥运数字化与奥运虚拟系列正当性：环境心理学视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124545

Jun-Phil Uhm , Kun Chang , Sanghoon Kim , Hyun-Woo Lee

Olympic virtual series made its inaugural debut as the first Olympic-licensed virtual sports, yet whether audiences will perceive them as legitimate official Olympic events is unknown. Drawing on the environmental psychology model and transportation theory, we examined the relationship between the audience's perceived virtual gaming atmosphere, sense of presence, positive emotions, and perceived legitimacy of the Olympic virtual series. 339 Olympic virtual series spectators were included in the analysis of a serial mediation model using PROCESS macro. The findings revealed that game atmosphere was a significant factor in establishing audiences' sense of presence, positive emotion, and perceived legitimacy. The mediation effects of presence and positive emotion on the relationship between the game atmosphere and perceived legitimacy were also significant. This study contributed to the media communication literature and provided useful practical implications for the International Olympic Committee regarding how to enhance spectators' Olympic digital experience.

奥运会虚拟系列赛作为首个获得奥运会授权的虚拟体育项目首次亮相，但观众是否会将其视为合法的奥运会官方赛事尚不得而知。利用环境心理学模型和运输理论，我们研究了观众感知到的虚拟游戏氛围、存在感、积极情绪和感知到的奥运虚拟系列正当性之间的关系。采用PROCESS宏对339名奥运虚拟系列观众进行了系列中介模型分析。研究结果显示，游戏氛围是建立用户存在感、积极情绪和感知合法性的重要因素。在场和积极情绪在游戏氛围与正当性感知之间的中介作用也显著。本研究为媒体传播文献做出了贡献，并为国际奥委会如何提升观众的奥运数字体验提供了有益的实践启示。

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引用次数: 0

Moving beyond resilience: Building antifragility using digital technologies in entrepreneurial organizations 超越弹性：在创业组织中使用数字技术建立反脆弱性

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124514

Yaning Zhang , Sanjay Chaudhary , Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani , Yanzhe Yuan , Bhumika Gupta

Resilience is crucial as entrepreneurial organizations have often been viewed as fragile systems, leading to their reactive approach to disruptions. However, there is a lack of clarity regarding the role of unique organizational capabilities in interpreting emerging disruptions, managing the aftereffects of disruptions, and achieving antifragility. We explore how entrepreneurial organizations proactively thrive during disruption, with a specific focus on the unique role of varied organizational capabilities at three distinct stages of disruption: the pre-disruption stage, the emergence of disruption, and the post-disruption stage. Our qualitative study investigated responses from managers working in thirty-six entrepreneurial organizations, highlighting the concurrent role of digital capabilities, social capital, and ambidexterity during different stages of disruption. The findings indicate that leveraging social capital is crucial in activating organizational resilience during the various stages of a crisis. Digital technologies enable entrepreneurial organizations to anticipate the potential ramifications of disruptions and engage in collaborations during the post-disruption phase, thereby building antifragility. Another implication is the role of ambidexterity as an organizational capability in responding positively to continuous disruptions and thriving post disruptions.

弹性是至关重要的，因为创业组织经常被视为脆弱的系统，导致他们采取被动的方式来应对中断。然而，对于独特的组织能力在解释新出现的中断、管理中断的后果和实现反脆弱性方面的作用，缺乏明确的认识。我们探讨了创业型组织如何在颠覆中积极发展，并特别关注了不同组织能力在颠覆的三个不同阶段的独特作用：颠覆前阶段、颠覆出现阶段和颠覆后阶段。我们的定性研究调查了36家创业组织的管理者的反应，强调了数字能力、社会资本和双元性在不同颠覆阶段的同时作用。研究结果表明，在危机的各个阶段，利用社会资本对于激活组织弹性至关重要。数字技术使创业组织能够预测破坏的潜在后果，并在破坏后阶段进行合作，从而建立反脆弱性。另一个含义是，在积极应对持续中断和中断后蓬勃发展的组织能力中，双灵巧的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding the householder solar panel consumer: A Markovian model and its societal implications 理解家庭太阳能电池板消费者：一个马尔可夫模型及其社会影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124555

Marta Leocata , Giulia Livieri , Silvia Morlacchi , Fausto Corvino , Franco Flandoli , Alberto Eugenio Ermenegildo Pirni

Household adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is central to the green energy transition, yet diffusion depends on social influence and behavioral biases, as well as payback economics. This study develops a parsimonious Markovian model in which households move sequentially from being unengaged (“Carbon”) to informed, to planning, and finally to adoption (“Green”). Transition rates are micro-founded by two mechanisms: (i) social contagion/communication, proxied by the current share of adopters, and (ii) economic profitability, proxied by payback time computed from a Net Present Value framework. Novel to this diffusion setting, bounded rationality is introduced via hyperbolic discounting, creating a procrastination loop that delays adoption even when PV is economically attractive in a long-run perspective. Calibrated on the Italian residential PV diffusion path (2006–2020) and assessed in national and regional applications, the model reproduces observed trajectories and enables forward-looking scenario analysis (2020–2026). Results show that policies yielding similar payback improvements can produce different outcomes once present bias is accounted for and that behaviorally informed intervention are stronger. The findings contribute a micro-to-macro bridge between behavioral economics and technology diffusion modeling and imply that effective policy portfolios (and PV business models) should complement incentives with commitment devices and social-norm peer strategies to accelerate PV uptake and its spillover emissions benefits.

屋顶光伏（PV）系统的家庭采用是绿色能源转型的核心，但扩散取决于社会影响和行为偏见，以及回报经济学。本研究发展了一个简约的马尔可夫模型，在这个模型中，家庭按顺序从不参与（“碳”）到知情，到计划，最后到采用（“绿色”）。过渡率是由两种机制微观决定的：(i)社会传染/沟通，由当前采用者的份额代表；（ii）经济盈利能力，由从净现值框架计算的回报时间代表。这种扩散设置的新颖之处在于，通过双曲贴现引入了有限理性，创造了一个拖延循环，即使PV在长期来看具有经济吸引力，也会延迟采用。根据意大利住宅光伏扩散路径（2006-2020年）进行校准，并在国家和地区应用中进行评估，该模型再现了观察到的轨迹，并实现了前瞻性情景分析（2020-2026年）。结果表明，一旦考虑到目前的偏见，产生类似回报改善的政策可能产生不同的结果，并且行为知情干预更强。研究结果在行为经济学和技术扩散模型之间架起了一座微观到宏观的桥梁，表明有效的政策组合（和光伏商业模式）应该与承诺机制和社会规范对等战略相辅相成，以加速光伏吸收及其溢出排放效益。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the gambit: Unfavorable market responses to AI-based service patents in manufacturing firms 引导策略：制造企业对基于人工智能的服务专利的不利市场反应

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124538

Pankaj C. Patel

Drawing on transaction cost economics and organizational information processing theory, we challenge the espoused benefits of AI in servitization by demonstrating that stock market reactions to service technology patents with high AI scores are negative. In a sample of 1306 service technology patents and 758,143 non-service technology patents from 3899 manufacturing firms (1980–2020), we find that idiosyncratic volatility mitigates this negative reaction, while tangibility shows no such effect. Decade-wise analysis reveals effects are significant only in the 2010s and 2020s, suggesting evolving market perceptions of AI-driven servitization. Results hold across matched-pair sampling, non-linear effects testing, fixed-effects individual slopes, and alternative moderator analyses. This study cautions against assuming short-term market value of AI service innovations in manufacturing.

利用交易成本经济学和组织信息处理理论，我们通过证明股票市场对AI得分高的服务技术专利的反应是负面的，挑战了人工智能在服务化中所支持的好处。以3899家制造业企业的1306项服务技术专利和758,143项非服务技术专利为样本（1980-2020年），我们发现特质波动性缓解了这种负面反应，而有形性则没有这种影响。从十年的角度分析显示，只有在2010年代和2020年代，人工智能的影响才会显著，这表明市场对人工智能驱动的服务化的看法正在发生变化。结果跨越配对抽样，非线性效应测试，固定效应个别斜坡，和替代调节分析。该研究警告不要假设制造业中人工智能服务创新的短期市场价值。

引用次数: 0

Proximity and cross-regional academia-industry collaboration: The moderating role of regional government support 邻近与跨区域产学研合作：区域政府支持的调节作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124547

Ningning Zhang , Ke Wen , Jingjing Guo , Dingyi You , Le Tang

Previous studies have emphasized geographical proximity's role in academia-industry collaboration, yet this fails to explain the boom of cross-regional cooperation in China. Our study explores the factors driving these collaborations by introducing the concept of regional government support alongside geographical and economic proximity. Using exponential random graph models, we analyze cross-regional collaborations between research institutes affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and firms. Our findings indicate that geographical proximity is positively associated and economic proximity is negatively associated with cross-regional collaboration. Importantly, we find that government innovation support in the firm partner's region both directly enhances collaboration probability and moderates the effects of proximity factors. When the firm partner is located in regions with strong government innovation support, the positive impact of geographical proximity is weakened, whereas the negative effect of economic proximity is strengthened. These findings suggest that academic institutions are increasingly willing to overcome spatial and economic barriers when partnering with firms in regions offering strong institutional support for innovation. Our study provides new insights into the spatial patterns of academia-industry collaboration in China, revealing a trend whereby academic institutions increasingly concentrate their collaborative efforts in regions with strong government support for innovation.

以往的研究强调地理邻近在产学研合作中的作用，但这并不能解释中国跨区域合作的蓬勃发展。我们的研究通过引入区域政府支持以及地理和经济接近的概念，探讨了推动这些合作的因素。利用指数随机图模型，分析了中国科学院所属科研机构与企业的跨区域合作。研究结果表明，地理邻近性与跨区域合作呈正相关，经济邻近性与跨区域合作呈负相关。重要的是，我们发现企业合作伙伴区域的政府创新支持既直接提高了合作概率，又调节了邻近因素的影响。当企业合作伙伴位于政府创新支持力度较大的地区时，地理邻近的正向影响减弱，而经济邻近的负面影响增强。这些研究结果表明，在为创新提供强有力制度支持的地区，学术机构在与企业合作时，越来越愿意克服空间和经济障碍。我们的研究为中国产学研合作的空间格局提供了新的见解，揭示了一个趋势，即学术机构越来越多地将合作集中在政府大力支持创新的地区。

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引用次数: 0

A structural-evolutionary rationale for public support of private technological innovation 公共支持私人技术创新的结构演化理论

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124539

Kenneth I. Carlaw , Gregory Bridgett

Dynamic competition in technological innovation drives long run economic growth. We find a rationale for public support of private technological innovation in features of this process which are central to our appreciative structural-evolutionary growth theory presented here. Agents face uncertainty and allocate resources to innovative endeavors based on subjective perceptions of potential opportunities that are generated by and limited to the evolving structural context in which they operate. Efforts cannot be evaluated on optimality criteria of equilibrium models because much of the value that may come to be associated with originating innovations is yet to be determined over the uncertain futures of their development trajectories. The system's history determines its present and future states. Influencing agent behaviours with respect to technological innovation alters the evolutionary path of economic growth. Policy that is historically conditioned, selectively focused and embedded in the structure of technology and the economy induces beneficial technological innovation trajectories. This role is absent from the equilibrium approach to economic growth theory in which fully-informed agents allocate resources based on calculations of optimal returns, producing growth on a stationary balanced growth path. In this approach, policy's sole purpose is the correction of divergence between social and private returns.

技术创新的动态竞争驱动着经济的长期增长。我们在这一过程的特征中发现了公共支持私人技术创新的基本原理，这是我们在这里提出的欣赏结构进化增长理论的核心。代理人面对不确定性，并根据对潜在机会的主观感知，将资源分配给创新努力，这些机会是由他们所处的不断变化的结构环境产生的，并受其限制。不能根据均衡模型的最优性标准来评估努力，因为可能与原始创新相关的许多价值尚未在其发展轨迹的不确定未来中确定。系统的历史决定了它现在和未来的状态。技术创新对主体行为的影响改变了经济增长的演化路径。受历史制约、有选择地集中和嵌入技术和经济结构的政策，会产生有益的技术创新轨迹。这种作用在经济增长理论的均衡方法中是不存在的，在均衡方法中，充分知情的主体根据最优回报的计算来分配资源，在平稳的平衡增长路径上产生增长。在这种方法中，政策的唯一目的是纠正社会和私人回报之间的差异。

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引用次数: 0

A data-driven framework for new product development: Integrating QFD and FCM based on online customer reviews 新产品开发的数据驱动框架：基于在线客户评论集成QFD和FCM

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124523

Romina Raafat , Jalil Heidary Dahooie , Edwin Garces , Tugrul Daim

Today, companies increasingly utilize customer-driven approaches like Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in new product development (NPD) to differentiate their products from competitors and satisfy customer needs and demands. Despite QFD's many capabilities in product design based on customer opinions, its practical implementation faces numerous challenges, such as heavy reliance on personal opinions for identifying and assessing the importance of customer requirements (CRs) and engineering characteristics (ECs), as well as the difficulty of understanding interactions between them. This problem worsens when there are connections and correlations between the identified requirements and characteristics. Given the benefits of extracting CRs from product reviews over traditional methods such as questionnaires and interviews, this study proposes a data-driven framework that combines data mining techniques and multi-attribute decision-making to tackle these issues. In this framework, online customer reviews (OCRs) are considered at all stages of NPD to maximize customer involvement, and association rule mining (ARM) is employed to discover causal relationships and weights among CRs, ECs, and their interactions. Additionally, by applying the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) method and integrating it with QFD, the relationships between CRs and ECs are analyzed, and CRs are prioritized accordingly. To demonstrate the practical application of this data-driven development framework, it is applied to the development of a mobile phone product using OCRs from Amazon.

今天，公司越来越多地在新产品开发（NPD）中使用客户驱动的方法，如质量功能部署（QFD），以使他们的产品与竞争对手区分开来，并满足客户的需求。尽管QFD在基于客户意见的产品设计中具有许多功能，但其实际实施面临许多挑战，例如在识别和评估客户需求（cr）和工程特征（ec）的重要性时严重依赖个人意见，以及理解两者之间相互作用的困难。当确定的需求和特征之间存在联系和相关性时，这个问题就会恶化。考虑到从产品评论中提取cr比传统方法（如问卷调查和访谈）的好处，本研究提出了一个数据驱动的框架，该框架结合了数据挖掘技术和多属性决策来解决这些问题。在该框架中，在新产品开发的各个阶段都考虑在线客户评论（ocr），以最大限度地提高客户参与度，并使用关联规则挖掘（ARM）来发现客户评论、客户评论及其交互之间的因果关系和权重。此外，应用模糊认知图（FCM）方法，将其与QFD相结合，分析了cr与ec之间的关系，并对cr进行了排序。为了演示这个数据驱动开发框架的实际应用，我们将其应用于使用来自Amazon的ocr的移动电话产品的开发。

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引用次数: 0

Interdisciplinary research and technological change 跨学科研究和技术变革

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124537

Bing Li , Kun Ding , Vincent Larivière

This study investigates the relationship between interdisciplinary research and technological change, using paper-patent citations. Technological change is defined as the extent to which a technology consolidates or disrupts existing technologies, patents can be categorized into three types: destabilizing, consolidating, and moderating. Drawing on all journal articles published in 2002 and indexed in the Web of Science database and all patents from the USPTO, our study reveals that research papers have a relatively minor impact on destabilizing patents compared to moderating and consolidating patents. Particularly noteworthy is the significant contribution of papers in the field of Biomedical Research to technological advancements. Analyzing distinct dimensions of interdisciplinary research—variety, balance, disparity, and the Rao-Stirling index—we find that destabilizing patent citations decrease with both variety and the Rao-Stirling index increase. The correlation with balance exhibits a U-shaped relationship, but we observe no significant relationship with disparity. Moreover, consolidating patent citations demonstrate an increase with disparity and the Rao-Stirling index, while showing a decrease in relation to balance, but no negligible association is found with variety. Moderate patent citations increase with both variety and balance, and decrease with both disparity and the Rao-Stirling index.

本研究以论文专利引文为工具，探讨跨学科研究与技术变革之间的关系。技术变革被定义为一项技术巩固或破坏现有技术的程度，专利可以分为三种类型：不稳定、巩固和缓和。通过对Web of Science数据库收录的2002年发表的所有期刊文章和美国专利商标局的所有专利进行分析，我们的研究表明，与缓和和巩固专利相比，研究论文对不稳定专利的影响相对较小。特别值得注意的是生物医学研究领域的论文对技术进步的重大贡献。通过对跨学科研究的多样性、平衡性、差异性和Rao-Stirling指数进行分析，我们发现不稳定专利引用随多样性和Rao-Stirling指数的增加而减少。与平衡呈u型相关，与差异无显著相关。合并专利被引率随差异和Rao-Stirling指数的增加而增加，随平衡而降低，但与多样性的关系不容忽视。中等专利被引量随多样性和平衡性而增加，随差异和Rao-Stirling指数而减少。

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引用次数: 0