Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

英文中文

Environmental sustainability gamification: Conceptualization and scale development

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123978

Chia-Lin Hsu

Gamification has been identified as an important means of engagement in environmental sustainability. It has been shown to enable consumers to accept green products and effectively engage in resource recycling and can, therefore, help to accomplish sustainable development of the ecological environment. However, theoretical and practical interest in the research of gamification has been hampered by the lack of a reliable scale with confirmed predictive validity. Thus, this study aims to operationalize, develop, and test a measure of gamification based on a theoretically valid definition. Drawing on data from the literature and six in-depth interviews, this study develops and validates a scale to measure gamification. Via the exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, the results identify nineteen items across six dimensions. To investigate the model extension of the developed multi-dimensional 19-item ESGS, cross-validation analysis is performed using 394 responses obtained through the Zero2 APP. This allows the implementation of a green and sustainable economy through gamified ESG. Finally, based on the research results, this study offers practical implications for governments (i.e., policymakers) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) seeking to devise strategies to improve sustainable user engagement behavior among citizens.

{"title":"Environmental sustainability gamification: Conceptualization and scale development","authors":"Chia-Lin Hsu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gamification has been identified as an important means of engagement in environmental sustainability. It has been shown to enable consumers to accept green products and effectively engage in resource recycling and can, therefore, help to accomplish sustainable development of the ecological environment. However, theoretical and practical interest in the research of gamification has been hampered by the lack of a reliable scale with confirmed predictive validity. Thus, this study aims to operationalize, develop, and test a measure of gamification based on a theoretically valid definition. Drawing on data from the literature and six in-depth interviews, this study develops and validates a scale to measure gamification. Via the exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, the results identify nineteen items across six dimensions. To investigate the model extension of the developed multi-dimensional 19-item ESGS, cross-validation analysis is performed using 394 responses obtained through the Zero2 APP. This allows the implementation of a green and sustainable economy through gamified ESG. Finally, based on the research results, this study offers practical implications for governments (i.e., policymakers) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) seeking to devise strategies to improve sustainable user engagement behavior among citizens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 123978"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143133885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Healthcare workers' adoption of and satisfaction with artificial intelligence: The counterintuitive role of paradoxical tensions and paradoxical mindset

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123967

Luís Irgang , Andrea Sestino , Henrik Barth , Magnus Holmén

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing healthcare by introducing novel treatments and applications, thereby transforming the sector. However, the complexity, ambiguity, and inherent risks associated with AI can create tensions for healthcare workers that may result in stress, anxiety, and discomfort when they make decisions. These tensions are paradoxical in nature as they may present conflicting demands that can persist over time and develop into seemingly irrational situations. Understanding how these paradoxical tensions affect healthcare workers' responses to AI is crucial in addressing their concerns. This study investigates the role of paradoxical tensions and the paradoxical mindset in shaping healthcare workers' responses to AI. The study examines how these two factors influence individuals' intention to adopt AI systems and tools and evaluates the users' satisfaction with them. Using a quantitative survey design, data were collected from 357 healthcare workers. The results, based on regression analysis, indicate that paradoxical tensions positively influence both individuals' intention to adopt AI systems and tools and their satisfaction with the current use of AI systems and tools. The results also indicate that the paradoxical mindset positively mediates these relationships.

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence policy frameworks in China, the European Union and the United States: An analysis based on structure topic model

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123971

Shangrui Wang , Yuanmeng Zhang , Yiming Xiao , Zheng Liang

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly influential, governments worldwide are developing policies to manage its multifaceted impact across sectors. This study employs the structural topic model (STM) to analyze 139 AI policies from China, the European Union (EU), and the United States (US), three key actors in global AI governance. The analysis identifies 13 primary topics within AI policy frameworks, which are categorized into “research and application” (e.g., talent education, industrial application), “social impact” (e.g., technological risk, human rights), and “government role” (e.g., government responsibility, management agency). Notably, “government role” receives the most attention, while “social impact” is the least emphasized. The findings reveal that China prioritizes “research and application,” the EU emphasizes “social impact,” and the US focuses on “government role,” while all three demonstrate a growing emphasis on institutional systems, human rights, and scientific research. This study provides a comprehensive policy framework for AI governance, highlights the strategic priorities of China, the EU, and the US, and introduces an innovative method for policy text analysis. Moreover, it underscores the need for AI governance to balance industry development with ethical imperatives, foster comprehensive technological ecosystems, and prioritize public participation and international cooperation.

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引用次数: 0

Investigating successful sustainable urban mobility in large cities: A contingency-based, fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123963

Federico Iannacci , Simos Chari , Savvas Papagiannidis

Drawing on configurational theorising, this paper explores the complex interdependencies between and among the drivers of sustainable urban mobility in the context of large cities. By using high social impact as a proxy for successful sustainable urban mobility initiatives, we reveal that multiple configurations of infrastructure, market attractiveness, systems efficiency, and innovation can lead to successful initiatives, and these configurations are markedly different from those that result in unsuccessful initiatives. Subsequently, we show that these configurations do not apply to the cities under investigation regardless of their income, thus augmenting the configurational approach with a contingency perspective. Theoretical, methodological and policy implications are discussed by developing propositions that map large cities along the tangible/intangible continuum of successful sustainable urban mobility initiatives, thus highlighting the interdependent nature of physical infrastructure, innovation ecosystems and social impact.

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying a firm's AI engagement: Constructing objective, data-driven, AI stock indices using 10-K filings

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123965

Lennart Ante , Aman Saggu

This paper proposes an objective, data-driven approach using natural language processing (NLP) techniques to classify AI stocks by analyzing annual 10-K filings from 3395 NASDAQ-listed firms between 2010 and 2022. Each company's engagement with AI is classified through binary and weighted AI scores based on the frequency of AI-related terms. Using these metrics, we construct four AI stock indices—the Equally Weighted AI Index (AII), the Size-Weighted AI Index (SAII), and two Time-Discounted AI Indices (TAII05 and TAII5X)—offering different perspectives on AI investment. We validate our methodology through an event study on the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT, demonstrating that companies with higher AI engagement saw significantly greater positive abnormal returns, with analyses supporting the predictive power of our AI measures. Our indices perform on par with or surpass 14 existing AI-themed ETFs and the Nasdaq Composite Index in risk-return profiles, market responsiveness, and overall performance, achieving higher average daily returns and risk-adjusted metrics without increased volatility. These results suggest our NLP-based approach offers a reliable, market-responsive, and cost-effective alternative to existing AI-related ETF products. Our methodology can also guide investors, asset managers, and policymakers in using corporate data to construct other thematic portfolios, contributing to a more transparent, data-driven, and competitive approach.

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引用次数: 0

A new framework to predict and visualize technology acceptance: A case study of shared autonomous vehicles

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123960

Lirui Guo , Michael G. Burke , Wynita M. Griggs

Public acceptance is critical to the adoption of Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs) in the transport sector. Traditional acceptance models, primarily reliant on Structural Equation Modeling, may not adequately capture the complex, non-linear relationships among factors influencing technology acceptance and often have limited predictive capabilities. This paper introduces a framework that combines Machine Learning techniques with chord diagram visualizations to analyze and predict public acceptance of technologies. Using SAV acceptance as a case study, we applied a Random Forest machine learning approach to model the non-linear relationships among psychological factors influencing acceptance. Chord diagrams were then employed to provide an intuitive visualization of the relative importance and interplay of these factors at both factor and item levels in a single plot. Our findings identified Attitude as the primary predictor of SAV usage intention, followed by Perceived Risk, Perceived Usefulness, Trust, and Perceived Ease of Use. The framework also reveals divergent perceptions between SAV adopters and non-adopters, providing insights for tailored strategies to enhance SAV acceptance. This study contributes a data-driven perspective to the technology acceptance discourse, demonstrating the efficacy of integrating predictive modeling with visual analytics to understand the relative importance of factors in predicting public acceptance of emerging technologies.

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引用次数: 0

By chance or by strategy? The coevolution of startups and accelerators in the case of Taiwan

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123955

Ching-Yan Wu, Ming-Chin Tsao

Startups are key drivers of economic growth, and entrepreneurial intermediaries like accelerators play a crucial role. However, their success in coaching startup development is not always guaranteed. Despite extensive literature discussing startups and accelerators, the detailed mechanisms of interaction between startups and accelerators that ensure growth remain poorly understood. This study adopts complex adaptive systems theory to examine the coevolution of startups and accelerators in the context of Taiwan. The results contribute to the field of entrepreneurship by expanding our understanding of the intricate relationship between startups and accelerators, which is critical for their respective transitions. Our findings inform policymakers, entrepreneurs, and accelerator operators on how to optimize their operations and maximize impacts in a resource-limited small and medium-sized economy, aiming to pursue entrepreneurial innovation and transition. We also identify and elaborate the key transitional elements and four coevolving stages for accelerators in the discussion and conclusion.

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引用次数: 0

Understanding entrepreneurial disengagement: Exploring the role of team vision and emotional support

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123958

Bahare Afrahi , Reza Zaefarian , Pejvak Oghazi , Rana Mostaghel

Entrepreneurs often encounter challenges during their entrepreneurial journeys that may lead to disengagement from their business ventures. While the concept of disengagement has been extensively studied in the human resource management literature, there remains a relative lack of understanding regarding entrepreneurial disengagement. This study, grounded in the psychological theory of engagement and the job demands-resources (JD-R) theory, focuses on physical disengagement and investigates whether emotional disengagement precedes it.

Moreover, recognizing the significance of entrepreneurs' comprehension of their team vision, we hypothesize that team vision serves as an antecedent to both emotional and physical disengagement. Specifically, we investigate whether emotional disengagement mediates the relationship between team vision and physical disengagement. Building on JD-R theory, we examine the moderating roles of family emotional support and social networks' emotional support in this mediation relationship.

Our findings, utilizing data obtained from 184 entrepreneurs in the UK, indicate that emotional disengagement fully mediates the relationship between team vision and physical disengagement. Interestingly, our results suggest that while social networks' emotional support moderates this mediation relationship, family emotional support does not. These insights carry significant theoretical and managerial implications for understanding and addressing entrepreneurial disengagement.

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引用次数: 0

How does digital trust boost open innovation? Evidence from a mixed approach

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123953

Jiangtao Chen, Wenyu Cai, Jiamei Luo, Hongyi Mao

As new digital technologies continue to emerge, the trust mechanisms in open innovation are increasingly being discussed. Although previous research has explored the positive moderating effect of technology on digital trust in open innovation, limited attention has been given to the roles of inter-firm knowledge sharing and digital orientation. This study proposes a moderated mediation model based on open innovation and knowledge-based theory to advance research on this topic. Results from a survey dataset of 157 companies indicate that digital trust significantly influences open innovation, with knowledge sharing mediating such relationship. Moreover, a strong digital orientation significantly enhances the effect of digital trust on open innovation. A following fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis reveals a configuration perspective, showing that combining digital trust, sharing resources, sharing intensity, and digital orientation will affect open innovation. These results complement and refine previous regressions by identifying the conditions and paths through which digital trust affects the level of open innovation. Finally, a post hoc interview study involving 26 companies was conducted to confirm the complex relationships and reveal dynamic changes. This process also provided implementable strategies for enhancing digital trust and knowledge sharing. The mixed-method approach used in this study provides a deep understanding of the role mechanism of digital trust in open innovation from the theoretical and practical perspectives.

{"title":"How does digital trust boost open innovation? Evidence from a mixed approach","authors":"Jiangtao Chen, Wenyu Cai, Jiamei Luo, Hongyi Mao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As new digital technologies continue to emerge, the trust mechanisms in open innovation are increasingly being discussed. Although previous research has explored the positive moderating effect of technology on digital trust in open innovation, limited attention has been given to the roles of inter-firm knowledge sharing and digital orientation. This study proposes a moderated mediation model based on open innovation and knowledge-based theory to advance research on this topic. Results from a survey dataset of 157 companies indicate that digital trust significantly influences open innovation, with knowledge sharing mediating such relationship. Moreover, a strong digital orientation significantly enhances the effect of digital trust on open innovation. A following fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis reveals a configuration perspective, showing that combining digital trust, sharing resources, sharing intensity, and digital orientation will affect open innovation. These results complement and refine previous regressions by identifying the conditions and paths through which digital trust affects the level of open innovation. Finally, a post hoc interview study involving 26 companies was conducted to confirm the complex relationships and reveal dynamic changes. This process also provided implementable strategies for enhancing digital trust and knowledge sharing. The mixed-method approach used in this study provides a deep understanding of the role mechanism of digital trust in open innovation from the theoretical and practical perspectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 123953"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143133872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Let me shop alone: Consumers' psychological reactance toward retail robotics

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123962

Sejin Ha , Jee-Sun Park , So Won Jeong

Service robots, autonomous agents combined with artificial intelligence, have gained significant momentum in retail industry. Research on service robots has been attracting increased attention across various disciplines, with focuses on technical issues, benefits, and adoption/acceptance. However, little is known about consumer reactance to service robots and its psychological mechanisms. This study, based on reactance theory, examines how perceived threat to freedom triggers consumer reactance, and how psychological inertia moderates this process. In doing so, this study identifies a model of reactance to service robots by comparing two existing reactance models. A survey of 352 US consumers who used service robots for in-store shopping was conducted. This study found that consumer reactance to service robots is best explained by a dual-process cognitive-affective model. Increased threats to freedom drive resistance intentions both directly and indirectly through negative cognition, and psychological inertia moderates this process. The findings contributes to the literature by highlighting the adverse aspects of new retail technology and presenting a model of consumers' reactance to service robots. This study offers practical insights into what to consider in designing consumer-service robot retail environments to reduce reactance.

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