Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第7页

The impact of intelligent decision support systems on social loafing in the workplace: The role of technology affordance and moral disengagement 智能决策支持系统对工作场所社会懒惰的影响：技术支持和道德脱离的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124482

Dan Song , Zhaohua Deng , Richard Evans

As Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) become increasingly used in the workplace to aid decision-making, employees are prompted to view them as social actors. This human-AI collaboration, however, can lead to a reduction in individual effort. This behavior reflects social loafing, a psychological tendency that can reduce collaborative outcomes and performance. Despite its importance, the underlying antecedents and mechanisms of social loafing in the context of human-AI collaboration remain largely unexplored. Drawing on Affordance Theory and Moral Disengagement Theory (MDT), this study aims to investigate how perceived technology affordance and moral disengagement influence employees' social loafing when collaborating with IDSS. Analysis of survey data from 312 employees of Human Resources (HR) departments in Mainland China indicated that: (1) perceived autonomy, perceived lack of emotion, and perceived lack of achievement visibility positively impact moral disengagement; (2) perceived customizability negatively impacts moral disengagement; (3) moral disengagement positively influences social loafing; and (4) the individual characteristics of AI experience and work experience moderate the relationships between technology affordances and moral disengagement. Theoretically, these findings contribute to the understanding of the antecedents and mechanisms of social loafing in human-AI collaboration. Practically, the study provides guidance for organizational governance and IDSS design strategies aiming to reduce social loafing.

随着智能决策支持系统（IDSS）在工作场所越来越多地用于辅助决策，员工被提示将其视为社会行动者。然而，这种人类与人工智能的合作可能会导致个人努力的减少。这种行为反映了社会懒惰，这是一种会降低合作成果和绩效的心理倾向。尽管它很重要，但在人类与人工智能合作的背景下，社会懒惰的潜在前提和机制在很大程度上仍未被探索。本研究运用供给性理论和道德脱离理论（MDT），旨在探讨感知技术供给性和道德脱离如何影响员工与IDSS合作时的社会懒散行为。对312名中国大陆人力资源部门员工的调查数据分析表明：(1)感知自主性、感知情感缺失和感知成就可视性缺失正向影响道德脱离；(2)感知可定制性对道德脱离产生负向影响；(3)道德脱离正向影响社会惰化；(4)人工智能体验和工作体验的个体特征调节了技术支持与道德脱离之间的关系。从理论上讲，这些发现有助于理解人类与人工智能合作中社会懒惰的前提和机制。在实践中，本研究对旨在减少社会懒惰的组织治理和IDSS设计策略提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Prioritizing interoperable AI-driven solutions for sustainable circular economy in the public sector 优先考虑可互操作的人工智能驱动解决方案，以促进公共部门的可持续循环经济

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124513

Safiya Alshibani , Abhishek Bhushan Singhal , Bhumika Gupta , Armando Papa , Manlio Del Giudice

Although digital transformation using artificial intelligence (AI) presents numerous opportunities to enhance public services and align them with circular economy (CE) goals, there are various challenges that make such digital integrations tedious and slow. Various technical, organizational and policy factors for AI integration in CE-aligned public governance have been explored in silos and their interrelationships and dependencies are not widely reported. Hence the study identifies upstream/downstream drivers for a sustainable circular economy and examines causal influence of each driver and further identifies boundary-linking drivers. Fifteen prominent factors reported in literature and validated by 102 experts from academia and industry for their cause effect relationship. The causal relationship is identified using Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) analysis. The findings are reported as a hierarchy of cause-and-effect groups based on their influence in the system. Privacy and Security Concerns, Feedback Loops, Data Interoperability and Training and Digital Literacy are reported as major drivers. The most affected dependent variable Urban Infrastructure Planning, National Goal Alignment, Standardized Data Protocols, AI-based Energy Optimization, Policy Support for AI Adoption, AI in Waste Management and Cross-Agency Data Sharing Capability are reported as effect variables. This study provides a comprehensive framework of causality by mapping interdependencies, revealing the underlying enablers and the downstream operational results. For practitioners, the results of this study, provide an evidence-based, stepwise roadmap that can help in the sequencing of strategic investment and policy deployment for achieving circular economy goals through digital transformations using AI.

尽管使用人工智能（AI）的数字化转型为加强公共服务并使其与循环经济（CE）目标保持一致提供了许多机会，但仍存在各种挑战，使这种数字化整合变得繁琐而缓慢。人工智能整合到与ce一致的公共治理中的各种技术、组织和政策因素已经在孤岛中进行了探索，它们的相互关系和依赖关系没有得到广泛报道。因此，本研究确定了可持续循环经济的上游/下游驱动因素，考察了每个驱动因素的因果影响，并进一步确定了边界连接驱动因素。文献报道了15个突出因素，经102位学术界和产业界专家验证其因果关系。因果关系是确定使用决策试验和评估实验室（DEMATEL）分析。这些发现被报告为基于它们在系统中的影响力的因果组的等级。据报道，隐私和安全问题、反馈循环、数据互操作性和培训以及数字素养是主要驱动因素。受影响最大的因变量是城市基础设施规划、国家目标一致性、标准化数据协议、基于人工智能的能源优化、采用人工智能的政策支持、废物管理中的人工智能和跨机构数据共享能力。本研究通过映射相互依赖关系，揭示潜在的促成因素和下游操作结果，提供了一个全面的因果关系框架。对于从业者来说，本研究的结果提供了一个以证据为基础的逐步路线图，可以帮助排序战略投资和政策部署，通过使用人工智能进行数字化转型，实现循环经济目标。

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引用次数: 0

From information to operations: Exploring the impact of integrated AI-HI on information diffusion and users' willingness in humanitarian aid 从信息到行动：探索综合AI-HI对人道主义援助中信息传播和用户意愿的影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124501

Shizhen Bai , Jiamin Zhou , Chunjia Han , Mu Yang , Chen Wang , Brij B. Gupta

The advancement in AI usage and technological capabilities has provided greater convenience in the diffusion of information within humanitarian aid operations, offering aid workers expanded operational possibilities and improving the efficiency of response. Consequently, experts in the field suggest that integrating AI and HI represents the next major development in humanitarian aid. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of research exploring the integration of AI within communication platforms as an information hub, leaving a gap for both aid workers and scholars. To address this gap, this study, based on the concept of perceived affordances and combined with affordance theory, investigates the interaction and overlay of AI and communication platforms. We conducted three studies in an online environment using real disaster relief videos and simulated communication platforms. Our findings indicate that the integration of AI (vs. Without AI) in communication platforms functioning as information hubs enhances perceived affordances. Specifically, AI improves perceived visibility and perceived editability, which in turn increases aid workers' willingness to exchange information and use the platform. Moreover, the facilitating effect of AI integration is less constrained by the actual level of affordances. Additionally, time pressure moderates these effects. Our study contributes to the field of humanitarian aid.

人工智能的使用和技术能力的进步为人道主义援助行动中的信息传播提供了更大的便利，为援助人员提供了更多的行动可能性，提高了反应效率。因此，该领域的专家建议，将人工智能和医疗保健相结合是人道主义援助的下一个重大发展。不幸的是，目前缺乏将人工智能作为信息中心整合到通信平台中的研究，这给援助工作者和学者留下了空白。为了解决这一差距，本研究基于感知可视性的概念，结合可视性理论，研究人工智能与通信平台的交互和叠加。我们利用真实的救灾视频和模拟的交流平台，在网络环境下进行了三项研究。我们的研究结果表明，在作为信息中心的通信平台中集成人工智能（与没有人工智能相比）可以增强感知能力。具体来说，人工智能提高了感知可见性和感知可编辑性，这反过来又增加了援助工作者交流信息和使用平台的意愿。此外，人工智能集成的促进作用较少受到实际能力水平的约束。此外，时间压力会缓和这些影响。我们的研究有助于人道主义援助领域。

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引用次数: 0

Toward closing the zipper: Technology readiness and diverse technology use of university students in terms of academic major and gender 走向闭合拉链：大学生在学术专业和性别方面的技术准备和多样化的技术使用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124493

Ville Heilala , Riitta Kelly , Miitta Järvinen , Raija Hämäläinen

Emerging technologies have the potential to transform education, and individuals with different technological orientations and backgrounds should have equal opportunities to harness the benefits. However, the underlying personal characteristics that potentially contribute to differences in technology adoption beyond the issues of technology access and skills have received less attention, especially in a context where access to technology and the possibility of acquiring necessary skills can be considered common. In this study, we found significant variation in university students' technology readiness in Finland regarding their field of study and gender. Students in information technology and natural sciences exhibited higher technology readiness than students in other fields. Also, men reported higher technology readiness than women, especially in innovativeness, suggesting a tendency to adopt new technologies before others. Findings underscore the need to consider the interplay between individual differences in technology readiness and the adoption of novel technologies in education because of a potential risk that individual and technological factors may drive and perpetuate the digital divide. The study concludes with the proposition of the Zipper Model of Digital Equity, which illustrates the digital divide and ongoing efforts toward digital equity in education.

新兴技术有可能改变教育，拥有不同技术取向和背景的个人应该有平等的机会利用这些好处。然而，在技术获取和技能问题之外可能造成技术采用差异的基本个人特征受到的关注较少，特别是在技术获取和获得必要技能的可能性被认为是共同的情况下。在这项研究中，我们发现芬兰大学生的技术准备程度在其学习领域和性别方面存在显著差异。信息技术和自然科学专业的学生比其他专业的学生表现出更高的技术准备程度。此外，男性比女性对技术的准备程度更高，尤其是在创新方面，这表明他们倾向于比其他人更早采用新技术。调查结果强调，有必要考虑技术准备程度的个体差异与教育中新技术的采用之间的相互作用，因为个人和技术因素可能会导致并延续数字鸿沟的潜在风险。该研究最后提出了数字公平的拉链模型，该模型说明了数字鸿沟和在教育中实现数字公平的持续努力。

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引用次数: 0

Responsible AI and employee service innovation behavior: A sequential mediation model of AI self-efficacy and AI crafting 负责任的人工智能与员工服务创新行为：人工智能自我效能感与人工智能制作的顺序中介模型

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124470

Yong Xu , Peijun Xie , Rana Muhammad Naeem , Intesar Almugren , Zahid Hameed , Shivani Agarwal

While the use of artificial intelligence (AI) has become an effective tool for transforming individuals and organizations, adopting a responsible approach to AI systems is imperative. Drawing on conservation of resources theory and social learning theory, this study examines how responsible AI enhances employees' service innovation behavior via employee AI self-efficacy and employee AI crafting, with a particular focus on the moderating role of leader AI crafting. We tested the proposed relationships using structural equation modeling with data collected from 335 U.S. employees working in various service organizations. The findings demonstrate that the indirect effect of responsible AI on employee service innovation behavior is mediated serially by employee AI self-efficacy and employee AI crafting. Furthermore, leader AI crafting strengthens the positive relationship between responsible AI and employee AI self-efficacy. This study contributes to the AI and management literature by highlighting the importance of responsible AI systems in promoting service innovation behavior among employees. This study addresses both theoretical and practical dimensions, as well as proposing directions for future research.

虽然人工智能（AI）的使用已成为改变个人和组织的有效工具，但对人工智能系统采取负责任的方法势在必行。利用资源守恒理论和社会学习理论，本研究考察了负责任的人工智能如何通过员工人工智能自我效能感和员工人工智能制作来增强员工的服务创新行为，并特别关注了领导者人工智能制作的调节作用。我们使用结构方程模型测试了所提出的关系，该模型收集了来自不同服务组织的335名美国员工的数据。研究结果表明，负责任的人工智能对员工服务创新行为的间接影响是由员工人工智能自我效能感和员工人工智能制作感依次中介的。此外，领导者人工智能锻造强化了负责任的人工智能与员工人工智能自我效能之间的正相关关系。本研究通过强调负责任的人工智能系统在促进员工服务创新行为方面的重要性，为人工智能和管理文献做出了贡献。本研究从理论和实践两个方面进行了探讨，并提出了未来研究的方向。

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引用次数: 0

Generative AI and ESG opportunism in supply chains: A utilitarian perspective on unintended consequences for sustainability 供应链中的生成式人工智能和ESG机会主义：对可持续性意外后果的功利主义视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124498

Zhe Sun , Lei Liu , Liang Zhao , Hind Alofaysan , Bhumika Gupta

Existing research has overwhelmingly emphasized the positive effects of generative artificial intelligence (AI) on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, while largely neglecting the risk of dimensional imbalance in ESG resource allocation and its potential contagion across supply chains. Drawing on utilitarian theory, this study introduces the novel concept of ESG opportunism and empirically examines the impact of generative AI adoption on its emergence and intensity. Results show that generative AI significantly heightens firms' opportunistic ESG behavior by increasing agency costs and weakening internal controls. This relationship is further amplified by stringent government environmental regulations and strong green investor preferences yet attenuated by greater analyst attention and higher-quality information disclosure. Moreover, a clear supply chain spillover effect is identified: generative AI adoption by focal firms transmits and intensifies ESG opportunism among both upstream suppliers and downstream customers. By challenging the dominant optimistic narrative surrounding generative AI's ESG implications, this study offers timely and critical insights for establishing responsible generative AI governance throughout global supply chains.

现有研究绝大多数强调了生成式人工智能（AI）对企业环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的积极影响，而在很大程度上忽视了ESG资源配置维度失衡的风险及其在整个供应链中的潜在传染。利用功利主义理论，本研究引入了ESG机会主义的新概念，并实证考察了采用生成式人工智能对其出现和强度的影响。结果表明，生成式人工智能通过增加代理成本和弱化内部控制，显著提高了企业的机会主义ESG行为。严格的政府环境法规和强烈的绿色投资者偏好进一步放大了这种关系，而更多的分析师关注和更高质量的信息披露则减弱了这种关系。此外，我们还发现了一个明显的供应链溢出效应：焦点企业采用生成式人工智能传播并加剧了上游供应商和下游客户之间的ESG机会主义。通过挑战围绕生成式人工智能的ESG影响的主流乐观叙事，本研究为在全球供应链中建立负责任的生成式人工智能治理提供了及时和关键的见解。

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引用次数: 0

How do economic sanctions affect corporate innovation? Lessons from China 经济制裁如何影响企业创新？中国的经验教训

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124516

Hua-Tang Yin , Jun Wen , Guo-Hua Ni , Chun-Ping Chang

This paper employs a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms to investigate the impact that economic sanctions have on corporate innovation, along with its mechanisms and conditionalities. It is found that economic sanctions exert a significant negative effect on corporate innovation output. Such an effect mainly stems from the decline in innovation efficiency caused by economic sanctions, rather than a reduction in innovation inputs. Further exploration for their mechanisms reveals that sanctions-induced perceived uncertainty weakens entrepreneurial spirit, exacerbates investor myopia, and reduces firms' slack resources, thereby lowering innovation efficiency. Moreover, our heterogeneity analysis with respect to personnel and incentive arrangements suggests that stable executive teams, greater employee profit sharing, and better employee benefits enhance firms' resilience to innovation challenges under sanctions. Going a step further, we examine the conditionalities regarding institutional quality. An inclusive, open, and fair competitive business environment helps mitigate the adverse effects of economic sanctions on corporate innovation.

本文采用中国上市公司面板数据集，研究经济制裁对企业创新的影响及其机制和条件。研究发现，经济制裁对企业创新产出有显著的负向影响。这种影响主要来自经济制裁导致的创新效率下降，而不是创新投入的减少。对其机制的进一步探索表明，制裁诱导的感知不确定性削弱了企业家精神，加剧了投资者的短视，减少了企业的闲置资源，从而降低了创新效率。此外，我们对人员和激励安排的异质性分析表明，稳定的管理团队、更大的员工利润分享和更好的员工福利增强了企业应对制裁下创新挑战的弹性。更进一步，我们考察了有关制度质量的条件。包容、开放、公平竞争的营商环境有助于缓解经济制裁对企业创新的不利影响。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Enhancing supplier innovation capabilities through digital technology integration: A relational perspective” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 223 (February 2026) 124426] “通过数字技术集成提高供应商创新能力：关系视角”的勘误表[技术]。预测。Soc。更改223（2026年2月）124426]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124473

Umair Tanveer , Thinh Gia Hoang , Shamaila Ishaq , Muhammad Mustafa Kamal , Rekha Attri

引用次数: 0

Relational coordination in medical work: The role of digital health practices 医疗工作中的关系协调：数字健康实践的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124508

Mattia Vincenzo Olive , Luca Gastaldi , Francesco Paolo Appio

The increasing specialization of medical work has amplified the complexity of coordination among healthcare professionals, making its effectiveness a persistent challenge. Digital health technologies – including telemedicine, electronic medical records and generative artificial intelligence – have been introduced to facilitate coordination, yet their impact on relational coordination remains debated. While some studies highlight their potential to enhance structured communication and information sharing, others point to risks such as communication silos, depersonalization and cognitive overload. This study integrates Relational Coordination Theory with the sociomateriality paradigm to examine how digital health practices shape relational coordination among healthcare professionals. Leveraging survey data from a sample of Italian specialist doctors, we analyze the effects of distinct digital health practices (quantification, connectivity and instantaneity) on relational coordination. Our findings reveal that digital health practices exert heterogeneous effects. Consulting and collaborating at a distance through telemedicine positively influences relational coordination, whereas monitoring and visualizing patient data may introduce complexities rather than improving coordination. The role of EMRs and generative AI appears more ambiguous, with mixed evidence regarding their capacity to sustain relational coordination. These findings underscore the need to further understand how digital health practices are integrated into clinical work and their implications for coordination processes.

医疗工作的日益专业化扩大了医疗保健专业人员之间协调的复杂性，使其有效性成为一个持续的挑战。数字卫生技术——包括远程医疗、电子病历和生成式人工智能——已被引入以促进协调，但它们对关系协调的影响仍存在争议。虽然一些研究强调了它们在加强结构化沟通和信息共享方面的潜力，但也有一些研究指出了沟通孤岛、去人格化和认知超载等风险。本研究将关系协调理论与社会物质性范式相结合，研究数字健康实践如何塑造医疗保健专业人员之间的关系协调。利用来自意大利专科医生样本的调查数据，我们分析了不同的数字医疗实践（量化、连通性和即时性）对关系协调的影响。我们的研究结果表明，数字健康实践产生了异质性影响。通过远程医疗进行远程咨询和协作对关系协调产生积极影响，而监测和可视化患者数据可能会带来复杂性，而不是改善协调。电子病历和生成式人工智能的作用似乎更加模糊，关于它们维持关系协调能力的证据不一。这些发现强调需要进一步了解数字卫生实践如何融入临床工作及其对协调过程的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic optimal distinctive configurations enabling manufacturing firms to achieve high green innovation efficiency 制造企业实现高绿色创新效率的动态最优特色配置

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124510

Jinghua Li , Xuan Qiu , Jiantao Zhu , Yuting Pang

When undertaking greening innovation activities, firms often encounter the paradoxical challenge of meeting regulatory compliance requirements while simultaneously pursuing competitive differentiation. Drawing on optimal distinctiveness theory, this study develops an antecedent framework that integrates rule-based drivers (regulatory, normative, and mimetic pressures) with choice-based drivers (executives' green awareness, green technological capability, and management capability) to explain firms' green innovation activities. Using dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) on panel data from 82 Chinese manufacturing firms between 2017 and 2022, the study identifies multiple configurations leading to high green innovation efficiency and uncovers their temporal evolution. The findings indicate three effective strategic patterns: a market-oriented strategy, in which firms use mimetic pressure as a benchmark to manage uncertainty while pursuing differentiated green practices; a cognition-driven strategy, in which executives' environmental awareness guides sustained innovation in response to long-term transformational pressures; and a capability-enabled strategy, in which regulatory pressure is leveraged as a signal for technological upgrading to build unique green innovation trajectories. By demonstrating how rule-based and choice-based logics interact as complementary mechanisms, this study further extends optimal distinctiveness theory by elucidating the dynamic processes through which firms balance conformity and differentiation in the context of green innovation.

在进行绿色创新活动时，企业往往会遇到既要满足监管合规要求，又要追求竞争差异化的矛盾挑战。基于最优独特性理论，本研究构建了一个前因框架，将基于规则的驱动因素（监管压力、规范压力和模仿压力）与基于选择的驱动因素（高管绿色意识、绿色技术能力和管理能力）整合在一起，来解释企业的绿色创新活动。采用动态定性比较分析（QCA）对中国82家制造业企业2017 - 2022年面板数据进行分析，发现了导致绿色创新效率高的多种配置，并揭示了它们的时间演化特征。研究结果指出了三种有效的战略模式：以市场为导向的战略，企业在追求差异化绿色实践的同时，利用模仿压力作为基准来管理不确定性；认知驱动型战略，高管的环境意识引导持续创新，以应对长期转型压力；以及能力驱动战略，利用监管压力作为技术升级的信号，构建独特的绿色创新轨迹。通过展示基于规则和基于选择的逻辑如何作为互补机制相互作用，本研究进一步扩展了最优独特性理论，阐明了绿色创新背景下企业平衡整合和差异化的动态过程。

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引用次数: 0