Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第10页

Digital transformation in healthcare: Assessing the role of digital technologies for managerial support processes 医疗保健领域的数字化转型：评估数字技术在管理支持流程中的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123781

Marianna Mauro , Guido Noto , Anna Prenestini , Fabrizia Sarto

This study used Porter's value chain model within healthcare organizations and the technology–organization–environment framework to explore the impact of digital technologies on managerial and administrative support processes and identify the determinants of their adoption. We used the Delphi methodology to examine six categories of digital technologies (Internet of Things, artificial intelligence & machine learning, big data & business analytics, cloud storage & computing, social media, and blockchain). The study used an inductive qualitative approach involving 11 experts to gather opinions on the most impactful digital technologies and the factors that hinder or limit digital transformation. We found that the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence & machine learning have the most significant impact on administrative support processes in healthcare organizations. Blockchain was least relevant. The experts identified the skills and competencies of employees as the most crucial determinants for ensuring successful digital transformation. These results contribute to the literature on digital transformation in healthcare, which has previously mainly focused on the impact of technologies on clinical processes. The findings may also be useful to both policymakers and practitioners in determining priorities for investment in digital technologies and delivering successful implementation.

本研究采用波特的医疗机构价值链模型和技术-组织-环境框架，探讨数字技术对管理和行政支持流程的影响，并确定采用数字技术的决定因素。我们采用德尔菲法研究了六类数字技术（物联网、人工智能和机器学习、大数据和商业分析、云存储和计算、社交媒体和区块链）。研究采用归纳定性方法，由 11 位专家参与，就最具影响力的数字技术以及阻碍或限制数字化转型的因素收集意见。我们发现，物联网和人工智能及机器学习对医疗机构的行政支持流程影响最大。区块链的相关性最小。专家们认为，员工的技能和能力是确保成功实现数字化转型的最关键决定因素。这些结果为有关医疗保健领域数字化转型的文献做出了贡献，因为以前的文献主要关注技术对临床流程的影响。这些研究结果对政策制定者和从业人员也很有帮助，有助于他们确定数字技术投资的优先次序并成功实施。

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引用次数: 0

Risks of policy failure in direct R&D support 直接研发支持政策失败的风险

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123654

Mercedes Bleda , Seweryn Krupnik

In current socio-economic contexts characterised by high levels of uncertainty, the role of R&D policies to foster innovation becomes crucial. However, increased uncertainty exacerbates the risk of policy failure leading to ineffective R&D support. Despite this, R&D policy failure risk is rarely discussed in the literature. While innovation research acknowledges the existence of policy failure risks, their nature and the appropriate ways to address them are not analysed in an integrated manner. Drawing upon risk and risk governance concepts and public policy research, we present a conceptual framework for the analysis of R&D policy failure risks and their governance.

在当前以高度不确定性为特征的社会经济背景下，研发政策在促进创新方面的作用变得至关重要。然而，不确定性的增加加剧了政策失败的风险，导致研发支持效果不佳。尽管如此，文献中却很少讨论研发政策失败的风险。虽然创新研究承认存在政策失效风险，但却没有对其性质和适当的应对方法进行综合分析。借鉴风险和风险治理概念以及公共政策研究，我们提出了一个分析研发政策失败风险及其治理的概念框架。

引用次数: 0

Bringing employee learning to AI stress research: A moderated mediation model 将员工学习引入人工智能压力研究：调节中介模型

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123773

Qiwei Zhou , Keyu Chen , Shuang Cheng

While a substantial portion of the literature characterizes artificial intelligence (AI) stress as a hindrance, our focus diverges by probing employee learning as an active response to this challenge. We highlight the role of employee knowledge and skills development amidst an enterprise's digital transformation. Drawing on the active learning perspective of the Job Demand-Control model, we investigate why and when AI stress promotes employee learning and subsequent adaptive coping behaviors. We propose that AI stress can create opportunities and resources for employee learning, leading to improved job performance and supportive behavior for digital transformation. Additionally, we examine how employee trust in AI moderates these relationships, finding that higher levels of AI trust are associated with greater use of active learning strategies when faced with AI stress. Our findings, based on a two-wave survey of 224 employees from a motor-vehicle testing company in China, are further supported by post-hoc interview data collected from 32 employees of the same company. Overall, our study contributes to the understanding of AI adoption, digital transformation, and stress learning.

大量文献将人工智能（AI）压力描述为一种阻碍，而我们的研究重点则有所不同，我们将员工学习作为应对这一挑战的一种积极措施。我们强调员工知识和技能发展在企业数字化转型中的作用。借鉴 "工作需求-控制 "模型的主动学习视角，我们研究了人工智能压力促进员工学习和后续适应性应对行为的原因和时间。我们提出，人工智能压力可以为员工学习创造机会和资源，从而提高工作绩效并支持数字化转型行为。此外，我们还研究了员工对人工智能的信任如何调节这些关系，发现人工智能信任度越高，员工在面对人工智能压力时使用主动学习策略的比例就越高。我们的研究结果基于对中国一家机动车检测公司 224 名员工进行的两波调查，并得到了同一公司 32 名员工的事后访谈数据的进一步支持。总之，我们的研究有助于理解人工智能的应用、数字化转型和压力学习。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring resistance barriers in travelers' word of mouth for mobile payment systems: Mediating effects of trust and usage intention 探索旅行者对移动支付系统口碑传播的阻力障碍：信任和使用意向的中介效应

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123771

Irfan Hameed , Imran Hameed , Umair Akram , Ghulam Ali Arain , Riyad Eid

Emerging technologies, such as mobile payment systems (MPS), continue to affect people from all walks of life, including travelers' behaviors. Following the innovation resistance theory (IRT) framework, the current study examined the link between innovation resistance barriers (i.e., usage, value, risk, tradition, and image) and word of mouth (WOM) for MPS usage in the travel industry. Specifically, we integrated trust theory and examined how these innovation resistance barriers affect trust, which then affects MPS usage intention and subsequently affects WOM for MPS. Following the two-study research design, multi-wave data were collected from 403 participants in Study 1 and 378 participants in Study 2. The results supported the serial mediation of trust and MPS usage intention for the relationships between usage, value, and tradition barriers and WOM for MPS. Our findings contribute to travel and consumer behavior theory and practice by explaining how and why specific innovation barriers negatively influence WOM for MPS usage in the travel industry.

移动支付系统（MPS）等新兴技术不断影响着各行各业的人们，包括旅行者的行为。根据创新阻力理论（IRT）框架，本研究考察了旅游业使用移动支付系统的创新阻力障碍（即使用、价值、风险、传统和形象）与口碑（WOM）之间的联系。具体而言，我们结合信任理论，研究了这些创新阻力障碍如何影响信任，进而影响 MPS 的使用意向，并进而影响 MPS 的 WOM。按照两项研究的设计，研究 1 收集了 403 名参与者的多波数据，研究 2 收集了 378 名参与者的多波数据。研究结果表明，在使用、价值和传统障碍与 MPS 的 WOM 之间的关系中，信任和 MPS 使用意愿起到了串联中介的作用。我们的研究结果解释了特定的创新障碍如何以及为什么会对旅游行业使用 MPS 的 WOM 产生负面影响，从而为旅游和消费者行为理论与实践做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Climate risk, digital transformation and corporate green innovation efficiency: Evidence from China 气候风险、数字化转型与企业绿色创新效率：来自中国的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123777

Xiaohang Ren , Wenqi Li , Yiying Li

Amid the rapid evolution of economic activities, climate risk has become a significant challenge for China, profoundly influencing corporate investment decisions. This study explores the effects and mechanisms of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency within the Chinese context. The findings reveal that climate risk significantly enhances corporate green innovation efficiency through two stages: green technology R&D and the conversion of green outcomes, facilitated by external supervision and digital transformation mechanisms. Specifically, climate risk increases public awareness and the effectiveness of supervision over corporate environmental performance, while also bolstering the intrinsic motivation for corporate digital transformation, collectively enhancing green innovation efficiency. Furthermore, government green subsidies, market competition intensity, and corporate innovation continuity positively moderate the impact of climate risk on green innovation efficiency. These effects are particularly pronounced in high-tech firms, state-owned enterprises, firms with fewer financing constraints, and those with robust environmental management systems. Ultimately, the positive effect of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency further enhances corporate green total factor productivity. This research provides valuable insights for companies striving to harmonize economic benefits with environmental performance.

在经济活动快速发展的同时，气候风险已成为中国面临的重大挑战，深刻影响着企业的投资决策。本研究在中国背景下探讨了气候风险对企业绿色创新效率的影响和机制。研究结果表明，在外部监督和数字化转型机制的推动下，气候风险通过绿色技术研发和绿色成果转化两个阶段显著提高了企业的绿色创新效率。具体而言，气候风险提高了公众对企业环境绩效的认识和监督的有效性，同时也增强了企业数字化转型的内在动力，共同提高了绿色创新效率。此外，政府的绿色补贴、市场竞争强度和企业创新的持续性也会积极缓和气候风险对绿色创新效率的影响。这些影响在高科技企业、国有企业、融资限制较少的企业以及拥有健全环境管理体系的企业中尤为明显。最终，气候风险对企业绿色创新效率的积极影响进一步提高了企业的绿色全要素生产率。这项研究为努力协调经济效益与环境绩效的企业提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares 评估新技术对工资和劳动收入份额的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123782

Mahdi Ghodsi , Robert Stehrer , Antea Barišić

This paper advances the literature on the impacts of new technologies on labour markets, focusing on wage and labour income shares. Using a dataset from 32 countries and 38 industries, we analyse the effects of new technologies – proxied by patents, information and communication technology (ICT) capital usage, and robot intensity – on average wages and labour income shares over time. Our results indicate a positive correlation between patents and wage levels along with a minor negative impact on labour income shares, suggesting that technology rents are not fully passed on to labour. Robot intensity is positively associated with labour income shares, while ICT capital has an insignificant effect. These effects persist over time and are reinforced by global value chain (GVC) linkages. Our conclusions align with recent research indicating that new technologies have a generally limited impact on wages and labour income shares.

本文推进了有关新技术对劳动力市场影响的文献，重点关注工资和劳动收入份额。我们利用 32 个国家和 38 个行业的数据集，分析了新技术--以专利、信息与通信技术（ICT）资本使用和机器人密集度为代表--随着时间的推移对平均工资和劳动收入份额的影响。我们的研究结果表明，专利与工资水平之间存在正相关关系，但对劳动收入份额有轻微的负面影响，这表明技术租金并没有完全转嫁给劳动力。机器人密集度与劳动收入份额呈正相关，而信息和通信技术资本的影响并不显著。这些影响随着时间的推移而持续，并因全球价值链（GVC）联系而得到加强。我们的结论与最近的研究一致，即新技术对工资和劳动收入份额的影响普遍有限。

引用次数: 0

Strategic roadmapping to accelerate and risk-mitigate enabling innovations: A generalizable method and a case illustration for marine renewable energy 绘制战略路线图，以加速和化解扶持性创新的风险：海洋可再生能源的通用方法和案例说明

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123761

J.V. Sinfield , A. Ajmani , W. McShane

Understanding technological evolution and its implications is increasingly important as the public and private sectors harness next generation technologies to address society's major challenges. Current roadmapping methods for these enabling innovations suffer from several limitations and often shed more light on technology viability than adoptability, leading many to frame related pursuits as unpredictable high-risk, high-reward activities. However, recent research highlights that the risk associated with developing enabling innovations depends more on the approach to pursuit than the technology itself. Drawing on this perspective, we put forward a strategic roadmapping approach that overcomes historical limitations by: 1.) framing technological advance as a complex socio-technical transition and 2.) drawing upon related patterns of high-impact innovation to inform unique roadmapping analyses. The result – the Enabling Innovation Strategic Roadmapping method – examines technical, economic, and socio-cultural barriers to progress to define windows of opportunity in which viable technological capabilities can be matched to adoption-ready needs within and beyond the motivating sector, fostering advance toward a long-term vision, technology convergence, valley of death avoidance, and means to influence ecosystem evolution. To illustrate the methodology, we develop a strategic roadmap for marine hydrokinetic energy technologies that could support the advent of a marine renewable energy economy.

随着公共和私营部门利用下一代技术应对社会的重大挑战，了解技术演变及其影响变得越来越重要。目前针对这些赋能创新的路线图绘制方法存在一些局限性，通常更多的是揭示技术的可行性，而不是可采用性，这导致许多人将相关的追求定格为不可预测的高风险、高回报活动。然而，最近的研究强调，与开发使能型创新相关的风险更多地取决于追求的方法，而不是技术本身。基于这一观点，我们提出了一种战略路线图方法，通过以下方式克服历史局限性：1）将技术进步视为一种复杂的社会技术转型，2）借鉴相关的高影响力创新模式，为独特的路线图分析提供信息。其成果--"赋能创新战略路线图 "方法--研究了阻碍进步的技术、经济和社会文化障碍，以确定机会之窗，在这些机会之窗中，可行的技术能力可以与激励部门内外的就绪需求相匹配，促进向长期愿景、技术趋同、避免死亡谷和影响生态系统演变的手段迈进。为说明该方法，我们为海洋水动力能源技术制定了战略路线图，以支持海洋可再生能源经济的到来。

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引用次数: 0

Job computerization, occupational employment and wages: A comparative study of the United States, Germany, and Japan 工作电脑化、职业就业和工资：美国、德国和日本的比较研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123772

Yuxi Heluo , Oliver Fabel

This study adds to the growing literature on wage and employment responses to the risk of job computerization. Specifically, it revisits the original occupational perspective and inquires into the nature of the adjustments of occupational wages and employment, i.e., the potential benefits and costs associated with professional careers in such occupations. The investigation further aims at identifying whether these adjustment processes are universal — as suggested by the global availability of the respective technology — or reflect country-specific peculiarities. To this end, it conducts a comparative analysis with data from the United States, Germany, and Japan, three G7 lead countries which share the commitment to fostering technological progress, but which are also characterized by distinctly different labor market institutions and approaches to industrial policies. Generally consistent with the country-specific employment institutions and common corporate strategies, transmission channels — as reflected by the relationship between adjustments of occupational employment and wages — differ between countries. In all three countries, though, higher risks of computerization are associated with relative wage losses in occupations which require low levels of formal education or training.

本研究是对日益增多的关于工资和就业对工作电脑化风险的反应的文献的补充。具体而言，它重新审视了最初的职业视角，并探究了职业工资和就业调整的性质，即与此类职业中的专业生涯相关的潜在收益和成本。调查的目的还在于确定这些调整过程是普遍的--如相关技术的全球可用性所表明的--还是反映了具体国家的特殊性。为此，本研究利用美国、德国和日本的数据进行了比较分析，这三个七国集团（G7）的主要国家都致力于促进技术进步，但它们的劳动力市场体制和产业政策方法也截然不同。与各国特有的就业体制和共同的企业战略基本一致，各国之间的传导渠道（体现为职业就业调整与工资之间的关系）也不尽相同。不过，在所有这三个国家中，计算机化的风险较高与需要较低水平正规教育或培训的职业的相对工资损失有关。

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引用次数: 0

Me, myself and AI: How gender, personality and emotions determine willingness to use Strong AI for self-improvement 我、我自己和人工智能：性别、个性和情感如何决定使用强人工智能进行自我提升的意愿

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123760

Sabrina Renz , Jeanette Kalimeris , Sebastian Hofreiter , Matthias Spörrle

With current technological advancements in AI pushing the boundaries of human-level capabilities, using general human-level artificial intelligence (i.e., Strong AI) holds potential for substantially improving human cognitive abilities. We examine individual-level antecedents of willingness to use Strong AI for improving human cognitive abilities. Two quantitative studies (N₁ = 1446, N₂ = 1090) reveal that gender and emotions have significant effects on the intention to use Strong AI for cognitive self-enhancement. Male (compared to female) participants demonstrate a higher willingness to use Strong AI for self-improvement. This difference can be explained partly by negative and independently by positive emotional reactions toward Strong AI. Neuroticism moderates the indirect effect via negative emotional reactions, such that sex differences in negative emotions diminish with higher levels of neuroticism. Our research findings provide first empirical evidence for demographic asymmetries regarding adoption intentions of Strong AI for cognitive self-improvement. We emphasize the importance of addressing sex differences through the management of positive as well as negative emotional responses and personality dispositions when designing equitable strategies for implementing Strong AI within our societies.

随着当前人工智能技术的进步不断突破人类水平能力的界限，使用一般人类水平的人工智能（即强人工智能）有望大幅提高人类的认知能力。我们研究了使用强人工智能提高人类认知能力意愿的个体层面前因。两项定量研究（N1 = 1446，N2 = 1090）显示，性别和情绪对使用强人工智能提高自我认知能力的意愿有显著影响。男性（与女性相比）参与者更愿意使用强人工智能进行自我提升。这种差异可以部分归因于对强人工智能的消极情绪反应，也可以单独归因于对强人工智能的积极情绪反应。神经质通过负面情绪反应调节了间接效应，因此负面情绪的性别差异会随着神经质水平的提高而减小。我们的研究结果首次为采用强人工智能进行自我认知提升的意愿方面的人口非对称性提供了实证证据。我们强调，在我们的社会中设计实施强人工智能的公平战略时，通过管理积极和消极情绪反应及人格倾向来解决性别差异问题非常重要。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of natural disaster emergency public investment cycles in central and southern Chinese regions: The role of technological innovation efficiency 中国中部和南部地区自然灾害应急公共投资周期的决定因素：技术创新效率的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123708

Fangjian Zhou , Hao Zhou , Hua Guo , Yinchun Lei , Chengling Tang , Xue Li

This paper analyses the disaster emergency public investment performance against the background of carbon emissions using the super-efficiency DEA and Malmquist models combined with emergency management and handling methods. A comprehensive and systematic analysis of the performance of natural disaster emergency public investment in the central and southern regions found deficiencies in current emergency performance due to inadequate legislation, inadequate resource allocation, and lack of prevention knowledge among the public. Further research results indicate that various provinces in the central and southern regions attach great importance to emergency public investment in natural disasters, mainly through the influence of scale efficiency and technical efficiency, which promotes enhancement in productivity, thus, the increase of emergency public investment rate. Technical efficiency positively impacts output, and some provinces have differences in their natural disaster emergency public investment rates due to the slow growth of technological progress. Therefore, specific measures will be gradually implemented to address the influencing factors.

本文利用超效率 DEA 和 Malmquist 模型，结合应急管理与处置方法，分析了碳排放背景下的灾害应急公共投资绩效。通过对中南地区自然灾害应急公共投资绩效的全面系统分析，发现当前应急绩效存在立法不完善、资源配置不充分、公众缺乏预防知识等缺陷。进一步的研究结果表明，中南部地区各省高度重视自然灾害应急公共投资，主要是通过规模效率和技术效率的影响，促进生产率的提高，从而提高应急公共投资率。技术效率对产出产生积极影响，部分省份由于技术进步增长缓慢，自然灾害应急公共投资率存在差异。因此，要针对影响因素逐步采取具体措施。

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引用次数: 0