Pub Date : 2022-10-05DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-13-24
N. Kremlev
The purpose of the study is to determine the level of effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, which affect their effectiveness in the transition to dynamic development. It is assumed that the determination of the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region is evaluated on the basis of characteristics of population reproduction, growth of value added and people’s standard of living. The interaction of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with six institutional sectors of the economy is considered. The research methods are the theory and methodology of statistics, including the index and tabular method, grouping of data, series of dynamics and comparative estimates. To determine the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region, a statistical approach was used. The author gives an assessment of the level of effectiveness of the region according to 9 main quantitative and qualitative indexes that objectively reflect the general state of the economy, the standard of living of the population and the evolution of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation for the period 1990-2020.Research results: the concept of the institutional mechanism of the population adaptation is clarified as a set of consistent actions of socioeconomic institutions, ensuring their effective interaction through the implementation of formal and informal rules, norms and standards in order to improve the level and quality of life of the population. In this regard, a toolkit has been developed to determine the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation in terms of population reproduction, value-added growth, and the standard of living of the population. Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in many regions of the country regarding the use of institutional mechanisms for the population adaptation, which have contributed to improving the level of efficiency of business entities and revealing the characteristics of specific territories. However, in a number of regions of the country, including the Kurgan region, there is a significant decrease in the number and migration outflow of the population, real incomes of the population are slowly increasing.Conclusion: the use of the statistical approach makes it possible to determine not only the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, but also the effectiveness of the implemented development strategies for the future and the quality of the adopted decisions by management bodies. The interrelations of the used institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with the level of economic potential of the territory are revealed. It is established that the population adap
{"title":"The Essence of Institutional Mechanisms of Population Adaptation and Assessment of their Effectiveness","authors":"N. Kremlev","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-13-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-13-24","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to determine the level of effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, which affect their effectiveness in the transition to dynamic development. It is assumed that the determination of the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region is evaluated on the basis of characteristics of population reproduction, growth of value added and people’s standard of living. The interaction of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with six institutional sectors of the economy is considered. The research methods are the theory and methodology of statistics, including the index and tabular method, grouping of data, series of dynamics and comparative estimates. To determine the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region, a statistical approach was used. The author gives an assessment of the level of effectiveness of the region according to 9 main quantitative and qualitative indexes that objectively reflect the general state of the economy, the standard of living of the population and the evolution of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation for the period 1990-2020.Research results: the concept of the institutional mechanism of the population adaptation is clarified as a set of consistent actions of socioeconomic institutions, ensuring their effective interaction through the implementation of formal and informal rules, norms and standards in order to improve the level and quality of life of the population. In this regard, a toolkit has been developed to determine the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation in terms of population reproduction, value-added growth, and the standard of living of the population. Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in many regions of the country regarding the use of institutional mechanisms for the population adaptation, which have contributed to improving the level of efficiency of business entities and revealing the characteristics of specific territories. However, in a number of regions of the country, including the Kurgan region, there is a significant decrease in the number and migration outflow of the population, real incomes of the population are slowly increasing.Conclusion: the use of the statistical approach makes it possible to determine not only the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, but also the effectiveness of the implemented development strategies for the future and the quality of the adopted decisions by management bodies. The interrelations of the used institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with the level of economic potential of the territory are revealed. It is established that the population adap","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79042192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-05DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-48-58
L. M. Mamedova
Conducting a combinational polynomial and spectral analysis of time series formed on the basis of daily observations of changes in the RUB/AZN exchange rate with pronounced fluctuations for the period 11.05.2017- 02.11.2018 based on computer econometric modeling.The purpose of the research. The possibility of describing the global rate dynamics by approximation with a combination of a nonlinear polynomial trend and harmonic oscillations of various frequencies relative to this curve; the ability to calculate amplitudes and phases, which can be used to estimate the power spectrum of the Fourier approximation; the ability to develop a high-precision algorithm for predicting exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN.Materials and methodology. The official statistics of the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan were used; classical methods of mathematical analysis and economic analysis; methods of econometrics, harmonic (Fourier) analysis, statistical spectral analysis, “Fourier analysis” of the MS Excel add-in, tools of the Eviews 8 application package with the standard deviation and average approximation error being taken into account, the necessary statistical procedures required for identifying and estimating the parameters of the model and checking its adequacy and accuracy.Results. By breaking up the empirical analysis of given time series into time-scale polynomial and time-frequency components. Combinations of the optimal degree of variants of polynomials up to the 11th degree and the number of harmonics of sines and cosines of all possible discrete frequencies were revealed.Conclusion. This result allows us to reconsider the asymmetric impact of RUB/AZN exchange rate pressure on the foreign trade balance between Russia and Azerbaijan. An increase/decrease in exchange rate pressure affects the likelihood of a ruble-manat crisis, while this phenomenon may negatively/positively affect the foreign trade balance and may make it difficult/easier to import resources, goods and services between countries. This, in turn, adds significance to the task of further detailed structuring and analysis of exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN in the face of increased sanction pressures against Russia, thereby actualizing the development of the retrospective part of the study.
{"title":"On the Combination of Harmonics and Polynoms in Econometric Modeling of RUB/AZN Exchange Rate","authors":"L. M. Mamedova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-48-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-48-58","url":null,"abstract":"Conducting a combinational polynomial and spectral analysis of time series formed on the basis of daily observations of changes in the RUB/AZN exchange rate with pronounced fluctuations for the period 11.05.2017- 02.11.2018 based on computer econometric modeling.The purpose of the research. The possibility of describing the global rate dynamics by approximation with a combination of a nonlinear polynomial trend and harmonic oscillations of various frequencies relative to this curve; the ability to calculate amplitudes and phases, which can be used to estimate the power spectrum of the Fourier approximation; the ability to develop a high-precision algorithm for predicting exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN.Materials and methodology. The official statistics of the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan were used; classical methods of mathematical analysis and economic analysis; methods of econometrics, harmonic (Fourier) analysis, statistical spectral analysis, “Fourier analysis” of the MS Excel add-in, tools of the Eviews 8 application package with the standard deviation and average approximation error being taken into account, the necessary statistical procedures required for identifying and estimating the parameters of the model and checking its adequacy and accuracy.Results. By breaking up the empirical analysis of given time series into time-scale polynomial and time-frequency components. Combinations of the optimal degree of variants of polynomials up to the 11th degree and the number of harmonics of sines and cosines of all possible discrete frequencies were revealed.Conclusion. This result allows us to reconsider the asymmetric impact of RUB/AZN exchange rate pressure on the foreign trade balance between Russia and Azerbaijan. An increase/decrease in exchange rate pressure affects the likelihood of a ruble-manat crisis, while this phenomenon may negatively/positively affect the foreign trade balance and may make it difficult/easier to import resources, goods and services between countries. This, in turn, adds significance to the task of further detailed structuring and analysis of exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN in the face of increased sanction pressures against Russia, thereby actualizing the development of the retrospective part of the study.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75251783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-22DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-71-86
A. Mikryukov, M. Mazurov
Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to improve the methodological apparatus of cognitive modeling of socio-economic systems (SES) and predicting the indicators of their functioning and development, which ensures an increase in the accuracy and reliability of the results obtained. Existing models and methods do not fully provide the necessary accuracy and reliability of models that requires the development of the mathematical apparatus of cognitive modeling in terms of improving the quality of the developed cognitive models.Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, methods of an integrated approach to solving the problem, decomposing it into interrelated stages, describing the content of each stage in their relationship and presenting a generalized version of the methodology, taking into account the characteristics of the object of study, were used. The developed approach provides creating a more accurate and reliable cognitive model. The effectiveness of the developed methodological apparatus is shown.Results. A detailed analysis of the existing criteria and approaches to solving the problem of verification of cognitive models was carried out, which showed the absence of a unified methodology and an integrated approach in solving problems of cognitive modeling of SES based on cognitive maps. A set of techniques that implement the stages of cognitive modeling has been developed. The results of a comparative analysis of the developed approach with the existing ones are presented.Conclusion. A comprehensive solution to the problem of creating a cognitive model for analyzing and predicting the activities of a university is proposed, which includes a set of stages: the stage of creating the problem field of the situation; identification of factors and relationships between them; the stage of making a cognitive map and its verification, as well as the stage of analyzing the system characteristics of the cognitive model, validating the cognitive model. The developed methodological apparatus includes a set of techniques aimed at obtaining an adequate model that provides more accurate and reliable results of modeling the object of study.
{"title":"Methodological Apparatus of Cognitive Modeling of Socio-Economic System (University)","authors":"A. Mikryukov, M. Mazurov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-71-86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-71-86","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to improve the methodological apparatus of cognitive modeling of socio-economic systems (SES) and predicting the indicators of their functioning and development, which ensures an increase in the accuracy and reliability of the results obtained. Existing models and methods do not fully provide the necessary accuracy and reliability of models that requires the development of the mathematical apparatus of cognitive modeling in terms of improving the quality of the developed cognitive models.Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, methods of an integrated approach to solving the problem, decomposing it into interrelated stages, describing the content of each stage in their relationship and presenting a generalized version of the methodology, taking into account the characteristics of the object of study, were used. The developed approach provides creating a more accurate and reliable cognitive model. The effectiveness of the developed methodological apparatus is shown.Results. A detailed analysis of the existing criteria and approaches to solving the problem of verification of cognitive models was carried out, which showed the absence of a unified methodology and an integrated approach in solving problems of cognitive modeling of SES based on cognitive maps. A set of techniques that implement the stages of cognitive modeling has been developed. The results of a comparative analysis of the developed approach with the existing ones are presented.Conclusion. A comprehensive solution to the problem of creating a cognitive model for analyzing and predicting the activities of a university is proposed, which includes a set of stages: the stage of creating the problem field of the situation; identification of factors and relationships between them; the stage of making a cognitive map and its verification, as well as the stage of analyzing the system characteristics of the cognitive model, validating the cognitive model. The developed methodological apparatus includes a set of techniques aimed at obtaining an adequate model that provides more accurate and reliable results of modeling the object of study.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79520788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-22DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-35-45
I. A. Karpukhno
Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to propose a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests based on the identification of the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are set: 1) within the framework of a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of the socio-economic interests of the approach, to propose a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state; 2) justify the functional limitations of these objective functions and propose a logic for justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve; 3) propose an approach to explaining the shape of the Laffer curve, due to the rotation of the parabola on the axis of penalties; 4) to confirm the proposed approach, on the basis of correlation analysis, evaluate the closeness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit.Materials and methods. The article uses information from the scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists, Internet resources. The following methods were used in the work: the method of logical analysis (for the logical substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve); correlation analysis (to identify the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit); the assessment of the tightness of the connection was checked according to the Chaddock scale; graphical method (to reflect different approaches to constructing the Laffer curve).Results. The paper proposes a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests, which involves highlighting the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. Within the framework of this approach, a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - a taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state are proposed. The functional limitations of these objective functions are substantiated and the logic of justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve is proposed. Various approaches to the construction of the Laffer curve are considered. The arguments of critics of the Laffer curve are analyzed. An approach is proposed to explain the shape of the Laffer curve due to the rotation of the parabola on the penalty axis. The logic of substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve is determined. Based on the correlation analysis, the tightness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally charg
{"title":"Assessment of The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in The Context of Socio-Economic Interests","authors":"I. A. Karpukhno","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-35-45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-35-45","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to propose a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests based on the identification of the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are set: 1) within the framework of a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of the socio-economic interests of the approach, to propose a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state; 2) justify the functional limitations of these objective functions and propose a logic for justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve; 3) propose an approach to explaining the shape of the Laffer curve, due to the rotation of the parabola on the axis of penalties; 4) to confirm the proposed approach, on the basis of correlation analysis, evaluate the closeness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit.Materials and methods. The article uses information from the scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists, Internet resources. The following methods were used in the work: the method of logical analysis (for the logical substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve); correlation analysis (to identify the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit); the assessment of the tightness of the connection was checked according to the Chaddock scale; graphical method (to reflect different approaches to constructing the Laffer curve).Results. The paper proposes a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests, which involves highlighting the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. Within the framework of this approach, a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - a taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state are proposed. The functional limitations of these objective functions are substantiated and the logic of justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve is proposed. Various approaches to the construction of the Laffer curve are considered. The arguments of critics of the Laffer curve are analyzed. An approach is proposed to explain the shape of the Laffer curve due to the rotation of the parabola on the penalty axis. The logic of substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve is determined. Based on the correlation analysis, the tightness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally charg","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82682703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-22DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-14-34
O. Morozov, M. A. Vasiliev
This article is devoted to the results of a statistical study of the composition of federal budget expenditures (the object of the study) from the standpoint of assessing its information content (the subject of the study). In the opinion of its authors, the issues of information content of budget decisions remain out of due attention not only from the participants of the budget process, but also in the practice of public administration in general. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to form scientifically based tools for assessing the information content, determining its quantitative indicators, clarifying the nature, hidden features and balance in the distribution of federal budget expenditures.Materials and methods. The analysis of the composition parameters of federal budget expenditures was carried out on the basis of statistical data of the Federal Treasury for 2014-2020. The theoretical foundations and research methods are developed based on the authors’ preferences regarding the results of conceptual and applied developments of domestic scientists in the field of synergetic information theory, structural analysis of systems, and modular theory of society. Quantitative methods of processing the initial data, tabular and graphical methods of visualizing the results of the study were used. Standard Microsoft Office application software packages were used to solve the research tasks.Results. Indexes of information content of the multicomponent systems’ composition and algorithms for their calculations are formed. Quantitative criteria are determined and a model for optimizing the composition of federal budget expenditures is presented. The comparison of actual and model indexes of the information content is presented as a way to adjust priorities in the composition of federal budget expenditures; as a way to develop tactics and strategies for the transition from the actual parameters of the expenditures’ composition to the “best” distribution, which is described by a quantitative model of the optimal combination of the scales of its components. Retrospective optimization options based on the results of the execution of expenditures in 2020 and promising options for optimizing the distribution of federal budget expenditures in 2022-2024 have been established.Conclusion. Assessment of the information content and optimization of the components’ scale of the budget expenditures’ composition are recognized as elements of management of the distribution of public resources in the budget process, ways to ensure control over the effectiveness of budget decisions and can be useful for participants in the budget process both at the stage of formation and at the stage of execution of budget expenditures.
{"title":"Information Content Assessment of the Federal Budget and the Budget Process in the Russian Federation","authors":"O. Morozov, M. A. Vasiliev","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-14-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-14-34","url":null,"abstract":"This article is devoted to the results of a statistical study of the composition of federal budget expenditures (the object of the study) from the standpoint of assessing its information content (the subject of the study). In the opinion of its authors, the issues of information content of budget decisions remain out of due attention not only from the participants of the budget process, but also in the practice of public administration in general. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to form scientifically based tools for assessing the information content, determining its quantitative indicators, clarifying the nature, hidden features and balance in the distribution of federal budget expenditures.Materials and methods. The analysis of the composition parameters of federal budget expenditures was carried out on the basis of statistical data of the Federal Treasury for 2014-2020. The theoretical foundations and research methods are developed based on the authors’ preferences regarding the results of conceptual and applied developments of domestic scientists in the field of synergetic information theory, structural analysis of systems, and modular theory of society. Quantitative methods of processing the initial data, tabular and graphical methods of visualizing the results of the study were used. Standard Microsoft Office application software packages were used to solve the research tasks.Results. Indexes of information content of the multicomponent systems’ composition and algorithms for their calculations are formed. Quantitative criteria are determined and a model for optimizing the composition of federal budget expenditures is presented. The comparison of actual and model indexes of the information content is presented as a way to adjust priorities in the composition of federal budget expenditures; as a way to develop tactics and strategies for the transition from the actual parameters of the expenditures’ composition to the “best” distribution, which is described by a quantitative model of the optimal combination of the scales of its components. Retrospective optimization options based on the results of the execution of expenditures in 2020 and promising options for optimizing the distribution of federal budget expenditures in 2022-2024 have been established.Conclusion. Assessment of the information content and optimization of the components’ scale of the budget expenditures’ composition are recognized as elements of management of the distribution of public resources in the budget process, ways to ensure control over the effectiveness of budget decisions and can be useful for participants in the budget process both at the stage of formation and at the stage of execution of budget expenditures.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74082454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-22DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-87-96
R. A. Yakhina
Purpose of the study: to develop, evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of an epidemiological model for the development of chronic viral hepatitis C, with the ability to predict the number of people who need to be tested for the presence of the virus.Materials and methods. In our study, we used official data for the Republic of Bashkortostan on the spread of chronic viral hepatitis C (annual dynamics of cases) in the period from 2005 to 2020, which were provided at our request by the Republican Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital. Demographic indicators for births and deaths were taken from the annual statistical report of Bashkortostanstat. The study considered 2 mathematical models: 1) Model SIR considers three groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), infected and dropouts (those who have recovered or died). 2) The STIRD model is the SIR model, improved by the author, which takes into account five population groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), tested (those who have been in contact with the infected people and require a test to clarify the diagnosis), infected, dropouts (those who recovered) and deceased.Results: from 2015 to 2017, the model provided representative data on the forecast of the infected people, the error was about 1.5-4%, but after this period, starting from 2018, the error rate became critical and the model lost its representativeness. To explain this phenomenon, there are 2 reasons: the first is the easy availability of drugs for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, the second is the need to use Markov models in the model, since the calculation does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the coefficients of the model. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the error was more than 166%, this is due to a decrease in contacts between people and, as a result, a sharp decrease in the incidence of chronic hepatitis C.Conclusion. The complete epidemiological STIRD model proposed by the author (taking into account the demographic change in the structure of the population) has shown itself well in medium-term forecasting up to three years. A significant advantage of this model specification compared to other epidemiological models is the ability to predict the number of diagnostic laboratory tests needed to detect a virus in humans. This is important, since the diagnosis and treatment of chronic hepatitis C is covered from compulsory medical insurance and regional budgets. Epidemiological modeling opens up great opportunities for developing scenarios for combating viral hepatitis C, especially with its chronic form, because, according to WHO, each country has the opportunity to completely get rid of this socially significant infection by 2030.
{"title":"Modification of Epidemiological Model for Predicting the Development of a Socially Significant Infection (by the Example of Chronic Viral Hepatitis C)","authors":"R. A. Yakhina","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-87-96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-87-96","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study: to develop, evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of an epidemiological model for the development of chronic viral hepatitis C, with the ability to predict the number of people who need to be tested for the presence of the virus.Materials and methods. In our study, we used official data for the Republic of Bashkortostan on the spread of chronic viral hepatitis C (annual dynamics of cases) in the period from 2005 to 2020, which were provided at our request by the Republican Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital. Demographic indicators for births and deaths were taken from the annual statistical report of Bashkortostanstat. The study considered 2 mathematical models: 1) Model SIR considers three groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), infected and dropouts (those who have recovered or died). 2) The STIRD model is the SIR model, improved by the author, which takes into account five population groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), tested (those who have been in contact with the infected people and require a test to clarify the diagnosis), infected, dropouts (those who recovered) and deceased.Results: from 2015 to 2017, the model provided representative data on the forecast of the infected people, the error was about 1.5-4%, but after this period, starting from 2018, the error rate became critical and the model lost its representativeness. To explain this phenomenon, there are 2 reasons: the first is the easy availability of drugs for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, the second is the need to use Markov models in the model, since the calculation does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the coefficients of the model. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the error was more than 166%, this is due to a decrease in contacts between people and, as a result, a sharp decrease in the incidence of chronic hepatitis C.Conclusion. The complete epidemiological STIRD model proposed by the author (taking into account the demographic change in the structure of the population) has shown itself well in medium-term forecasting up to three years. A significant advantage of this model specification compared to other epidemiological models is the ability to predict the number of diagnostic laboratory tests needed to detect a virus in humans. This is important, since the diagnosis and treatment of chronic hepatitis C is covered from compulsory medical insurance and regional budgets. Epidemiological modeling opens up great opportunities for developing scenarios for combating viral hepatitis C, especially with its chronic form, because, according to WHO, each country has the opportunity to completely get rid of this socially significant infection by 2030.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82384127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper studies the combined effects of mixed ownership structures and manager delegation on firms’ investment in automation processes in a multi-stage triopoly game. We show that, in accordance with empirical evidence, firms owned by common shareholders invest less in automation and realize lower profits compared to a firm owned by independent shareholders. Direct collusion of owners in terms of coordinated investment increases the profits, the one of the independent firm even more than the profits of the commonly owned firms. Delegation of operational decisions to managers results in higher investment and lower profits. In markets with favorable technological opportunities for automation, common ownership combined with manager delegation leads to the highest social welfare.
{"title":"Manager Delegation, Owner Coordination and Firms’ Investment in Automation","authors":"M. Stadler, Maximiliane Unsorg","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies the combined effects of mixed ownership structures and manager delegation on firms’ investment in automation processes in a multi-stage triopoly game. We show that, in accordance with empirical evidence, firms owned by common shareholders invest less in automation and realize lower profits compared to a firm owned by independent shareholders. Direct collusion of owners in terms of coordinated investment increases the profits, the one of the independent firm even more than the profits of the commonly owned firms. Delegation of operational decisions to managers results in higher investment and lower profits. In markets with favorable technological opportunities for automation, common ownership combined with manager delegation leads to the highest social welfare.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82539392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper investigates into the link between education mismatch and wages in Mauritius. It adds to the existing literature on education mismatch and labour market outcomes by using Mauritius as a case study in Africa, where overeducation is a growing concern, with graduates struggling to find jobs corresponding to their education level and field, the so-called vertical and horizontal mismatches. This supply-demand inadequacy ascends from a mix of factors and one of them can be termed as the ‘diploma disease’. Using the Continuous Multi-Purpose Household Surveys from 2013 to 2017, the pooled estimation results find evidence for a wage penalty of 1.3% for overeducated individuals compared to perfectly matched workers. A wage penalty of around 9.6% is also noted for undereducated workers compared to their perfectly matched counterparts. Heckman two step estimation approach is adopted to account for sample selection bias whilst the instrumental variable two stage least squares is applied to cater for the endogeneity of overeducation. The wage penalty for overeducation and undereducation under Heckman estimation method compares to ordinary least squares estimates with slight differences in the magnitude of the wage penalty. Once we account for endogeneity, the wage penalty for overeducated workers rose to 11% while that of overeducation did not change.
{"title":"Education Mismatch and Wages in Mauritius: Premium or Penalty","authors":"Verena Tandrayen Ragoobur","doi":"10.1515/roe-2021-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2021-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper investigates into the link between education mismatch and wages in Mauritius. It adds to the existing literature on education mismatch and labour market outcomes by using Mauritius as a case study in Africa, where overeducation is a growing concern, with graduates struggling to find jobs corresponding to their education level and field, the so-called vertical and horizontal mismatches. This supply-demand inadequacy ascends from a mix of factors and one of them can be termed as the ‘diploma disease’. Using the Continuous Multi-Purpose Household Surveys from 2013 to 2017, the pooled estimation results find evidence for a wage penalty of 1.3% for overeducated individuals compared to perfectly matched workers. A wage penalty of around 9.6% is also noted for undereducated workers compared to their perfectly matched counterparts. Heckman two step estimation approach is adopted to account for sample selection bias whilst the instrumental variable two stage least squares is applied to cater for the endogeneity of overeducation. The wage penalty for overeducation and undereducation under Heckman estimation method compares to ordinary least squares estimates with slight differences in the magnitude of the wage penalty. Once we account for endogeneity, the wage penalty for overeducated workers rose to 11% while that of overeducation did not change.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76222806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper develops a two-sector full employment general equilibrium model with endogenous schooling decisions. It aims to evaluate the effects of educational demand management policies on gender inequality in schooling and wage inequality. The results point towards the role of social norms in shaping parental discrimination against girls’ education, which accentuates gender gap in schooling due to gender-neutral education subsidy and rise in household income induced by foreign capital inflow. The two policies are favourable for gender wage gap if the agricultural sector is more female labour intensive than the manufacturing sector and returns to schooling are considerably higher for women than men. However, gender targeted education subsidy policies are in general beneficial with respect to both gendered schooling and wages. The paper contributes to the literature by identifying the role of factor intensity conditions and gender differentiated returns to education on the gendered schooling and labour market outcomes of demand side interventions in education. It also provides theoretical explanations to diverse impacts of these policies and suggests appropriate policy recommendations.
{"title":"Gender Gap in Schooling and Wages: Effects of Foreign Capital and Education Subsidies","authors":"U. Mukhopadhyay","doi":"10.1515/roe-2021-0043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2021-0043","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper develops a two-sector full employment general equilibrium model with endogenous schooling decisions. It aims to evaluate the effects of educational demand management policies on gender inequality in schooling and wage inequality. The results point towards the role of social norms in shaping parental discrimination against girls’ education, which accentuates gender gap in schooling due to gender-neutral education subsidy and rise in household income induced by foreign capital inflow. The two policies are favourable for gender wage gap if the agricultural sector is more female labour intensive than the manufacturing sector and returns to schooling are considerably higher for women than men. However, gender targeted education subsidy policies are in general beneficial with respect to both gendered schooling and wages. The paper contributes to the literature by identifying the role of factor intensity conditions and gender differentiated returns to education on the gendered schooling and labour market outcomes of demand side interventions in education. It also provides theoretical explanations to diverse impacts of these policies and suggests appropriate policy recommendations.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78173970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-25DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-4-13
U. Karimova, L. A. Rustamova, H. A. Afandiyeva
Purpose of the study. Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Materials and methods. In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.Conclusion. The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.
{"title":"Analysis of The Long-Term Links Between the Money Supply and The Consumer Price Index of The Republic of Azerbaijan","authors":"U. Karimova, L. A. Rustamova, H. A. Afandiyeva","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-4-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-4-4-13","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Materials and methods. In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.Conclusion. The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75027730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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