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Naivete-Based Discrimination Naivete-Based歧视
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW042
Paul Heidhues, B. Kőszegi
We initiate the study of naivete-based discrimination, the practice of conditioning offers on external information about consumers’ naivete. Knowing that a consumer is naive increases a monopolistic or competitive firm's willingness to generate inefficiency to exploit the consumer's mistakes, so naivete-based discrimination is not Pareto-improving, can be Pareto-damaging, and often lowers total welfare when classical preference-based discrimination does not. Moreover, the effect on total welfare depends on a hitherto unemphasized market feature: the extent to which the exploitation of naive consumers distorts trade with different types of consumers. If the distortion is homogeneous across naive and sophisticated consumers, then under an arguably weak and empirically testable condition, naivete-based discrimination lowers total welfare. In contrast, if the distortion arises only for trades with sophisticated consumers, then perfect naivete-based discrimination maximizes social welfare, although imperfect discrimination often lowers welfare. If the distortion arises only for trades with naive consumers, then naivete-based discrimination has no effect on welfare. We identify applications for each of these cases. In our primary example, a credit market with present-biased borrowers, firms lend more than is socially optimal to increase the amount of interest naive borrowers unexpectedly pay, creating a homogeneous distortion. The condition for naivete-based discrimination to lower welfare is then weaker than prudence.
我们开始研究基于天真的歧视,即以消费者天真的外部信息为条件提供服务的做法。知道消费者是天真的,会增加垄断或竞争性公司利用消费者错误产生低效率的意愿,因此基于天真的歧视并不能改善帕累托,可能会对帕累托造成损害,并且当基于传统偏好的歧视没有改善时,往往会降低总福利。此外,对整体福利的影响取决于一个迄今为止未被强调的市场特征:对天真消费者的剥削在多大程度上扭曲了与不同类型消费者的贸易。如果这种扭曲在天真和老练的消费者中是同质的,那么在一个可以说是软弱和经验可检验的条件下,基于天真的歧视会降低总体福利。相比之下,如果扭曲只发生在与老练消费者的交易中,那么基于完美天真的歧视会使社会福利最大化,尽管不完美的歧视往往会降低福利。如果这种扭曲只发生在与天真消费者的交易中,那么基于天真的歧视对福利没有影响。我们确定了每种情况的应用程序。在我们的主要例子中,在一个目前有偏见的借款人的信贷市场中,公司的贷款超过了社会最佳水平,从而增加了天真的借款人意外支付的利息,造成了同质扭曲。基于天真的歧视降低福利的条件比谨慎更弱。
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引用次数: 71
Public Protests and Policy Making 公众抗议与政策制定
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW039
M. Battaglini
Technological advances and the development of social media have made petitions, public protests, and other form of spontaneous activism increasingly common tools for individuals to influence decision makers. To study these phenomena, in this article I present a theory of petitions and public protests that explores their limits as mechanisms to aggregate information. The key assumption is that valuable information is dispersed among citizens. Through petitions and protests, citizens can signal their private information to the policy maker, who can then choose to use it or not. I first show that if citizens’ individual signals are not sufficiently precise, information aggregation is impossible, no matter how large is the population of informed citizens, even if the conflict with the policy maker is small. I then characterize the conditions on conflict and the signal structure that guarantee information aggregation. When these conditions are satisfied, I show that full information aggregation is possible as the population grows to infinity. When they are not satisfied, I show that information aggregation may still be possible if social media are available.
技术进步和社交媒体的发展使请愿、公众抗议和其他形式的自发行动主义越来越成为个人影响决策者的常用工具。为了研究这些现象,在本文中,我提出了请愿和公众抗议的理论,探讨了它们作为信息聚合机制的局限性。关键的假设是,有价值的信息分散在公民中。通过请愿和抗议,公民可以向政策制定者发送他们的私人信息,然后政策制定者可以选择使用或不使用这些信息。我首先表明,如果公民的个人信号不够精确,信息聚合是不可能的,无论知情公民的数量有多大,即使与决策者的冲突很小。然后,我描述了冲突的条件和保证信息聚合的信号结构。当满足这些条件时,我证明了当种群增长到无穷大时,完全的信息聚合是可能的。当他们不满意时,我表明,如果社交媒体可用,信息聚合仍然是可能的。
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引用次数: 62
Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago. 思考,快还是慢?芝加哥减少犯罪和辍学的一些实地实验。
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-02-01 Epub Date: 2016-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw033
Sara B Heller, Anuj K Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Harold A Pollack

We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28-35%, reduced violent-crime arrests by 45-50%, improved school engagement, and in the first study where we have follow-up data, increased graduation rates by 12-19%. The third RCT tested a program with partially overlapping components carried out in the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC), which reduced readmission rates to the facility by 21%. These large behavioral responses combined with modest program costs imply benefit-cost ratios for these interventions from 5-to-1 up to 30-to-1 or more. Our data on mechanisms are not ideal, but we find no positive evidence that these effects are due to changes in emotional intelligence or social skills, self-control or "grit," or a generic mentoring effect. We find suggestive support for the hypothesis that the programs work by helping youth slow down and reflect on whether their automatic thoughts and behaviors are well suited to the situation they are in, or whether the situation could be construed differently. JEL Codes: C91, C93, D03, D1, I24, I3, I32, K42.

我们介绍了在芝加哥进行的三个大规模随机对照试验(RCTs)的结果,测试了通过改变经济弱势青年的决策来减少犯罪和辍学的干预措施。我们在2009-2010年和2013-2015年实施的两项随机对照试验中研究了一个名为“成为男人”(BAM)的项目,该项目由非营利组织青年指导(Youth Guidance)开发。在这两项研究中,参与该项目在干预期间减少了28-35%的总逮捕率,减少了45-50%的暴力犯罪逮捕率,提高了学校参与度,在我们有后续数据的第一项研究中,毕业率提高了12-19%。第三个随机对照试验测试了一个在库克县青少年临时拘留中心(JTDC)实施的部分重叠的项目,该项目将设施的再入院率降低了21%。这些巨大的行为反应与适度的项目成本相结合,意味着这些干预措施的效益-成本比从5比1上升到30比1或更高。我们关于机制的数据并不理想,但我们没有发现积极的证据表明这些影响是由于情绪智力或社交技能、自我控制或“勇气”的变化,或一般的指导效应。我们发现了对这个假设的暗示性支持,这个假设是通过帮助青少年放慢速度,反思他们的自动思维和行为是否很适合他们所处的情况,或者是否可以用不同的方式来解释这种情况。JEL代码:C91、C93、D03、D1、I24、I3、I32、K42。
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引用次数: 304
What is the Expected Return on the Market 市场的预期回报是多少
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw034
Ian Martin
I derive a lower bound on the equity premium in terms of a volatility index, SVIX, that can be calculated from index option prices. The bound implies that the equity premium is extremely volatile and that it rose above 20% at the height of the crisis in 2008. The time-series average of the lower bound is about 5%, suggesting that the bound may be approximately tight. I run predictive regressions and find that this hypothesis is not rejected by the data, so I use the SVIX index as a proxy for the equity premium and argue that the high equity premia available at times of stress largely reflect high expected returns over the very short run. I also provide a measure of the probability of a market crash, and introduce simple variance swaps, tradable contracts based on SVIX that are robust alternatives to variance swaps.
我根据波动性指数SVIX得出了股票溢价的下限,该指数可以根据指数期权价格计算。这意味着股票溢价极不稳定,在2008年危机最严重的时候,它已经超过了20%。下界的时间序列平均值约为5%,这表明下界可能是近似紧的。我进行了预测回归,发现数据并未否定这一假设,因此我使用SVIX指数作为股票溢价的代表,并认为在压力时期可用的高股票溢价在很大程度上反映了短期内的高预期回报。我还提供了市场崩溃概率的衡量标准,并介绍了简单的方差互换,这是基于SVIX的可交易合约,是方差互换的稳健替代品。
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引用次数: 327
The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar Us Housing Credit Policy 政府资产购买的宏观经济效应:来自战后美国住房信贷政策的证据
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJY002
Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Morten O. Ravn
We document the portfolio activity of federal housing agencies and provide evidence on its impact on mortgage markets and the economy. Through a narrative analysis, we identify historical policy changes leading to expansions or contractions in agency mortgage holdings. Based on those regulatory events that we classify as unrelated to short-run cyclical or credit market shocks, we find that an increase in mortgage purchases by the agencies boosts mortgage lending and lowers mortgage rates. Agency purchases influence prices in other asset markets and stimulate residential investment. Using information in GSE stock prices to construct an alternative instrument for agency purchasing activity yields very similar results as our benchmark narrative identification approach.
我们记录了联邦住房机构的投资组合活动,并提供了其对抵押贷款市场和经济影响的证据。通过叙述分析,我们确定了导致机构抵押贷款持有扩张或收缩的历史政策变化。基于那些我们归类为与短期周期性或信贷市场冲击无关的监管事件,我们发现,机构购买抵押贷款的增加促进了抵押贷款的发放,降低了抵押贷款利率。代理购买影响了其他资产市场的价格,刺激了住宅投资。使用GSE股票价格中的信息来构建代理购买活动的替代工具,其结果与我们的基准叙述识别方法非常相似。
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引用次数: 56
The Mission: Human Capital Transmission, Economic Persistence and Culture in South America 使命:南美洲的人力资本传递、经济持续与文化
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJY024
Felipe Valencia Caicedo
This article examines the long-term consequences of a historical human capital intervention. The Jesuit order founded religious missions in 1609 among the Guarani, in modern-day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Before their expulsion in 1767, missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading, writing, and various crafts. Using archival records, as well as data at the individual and municipal level, I show that in areas of former Jesuit presence—within the Guarani area—educational attainment was higher and remains so (by 10%–15%) 250 years later. These educational differences have also translated into incomes that are 10% higher today. The identification of the positive effect of the Guarani Jesuit missions emerges after comparing them with abandoned Jesuit missions and neighboring Franciscan Guarani missions. The enduring effects observed are consistent with transmission mechanisms of structural transformation, occupational specialization, and technology adoption in agriculture.
本文考察了历史上一次人力资本干预的长期后果。1609年,耶稣会在瓜拉尼人(位于今天的阿根廷、巴西和巴拉圭)中建立了宗教传教会。在1767年被驱逐之前,传教士教导土著居民阅读、写作和各种手工艺。我利用档案记录,以及个人和市政层面的数据表明,在瓜拉尼地区的前耶稣会存在的地区,受教育程度更高,并且在250年后仍然如此(10%-15%)。这些教育差异也转化为今天的收入高出10%。在将瓜拉尼耶稣会传教会与废弃的耶稣会传教会和邻近的方济各会瓜拉尼传教会进行比较后,我们发现了瓜拉尼耶稣会传教会的积极影响。观察到的持久效应与农业结构转型、职业专业化和技术采用的传导机制一致。
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引用次数: 169
THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS TO THE POOR: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA. 无条件现金转移给穷人的短期影响:来自肯尼亚的实验证据。
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-11-01 Epub Date: 2016-07-19 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw025
Johannes Haushofer, Jeremy Shapiro

We use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural Kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the NGO GiveDirectly. The transfers differ from other programs in that they are explicitly unconditional, large, and concentrated in time. We randomized at both the village and household levels; furthermore, within the treatment group, we randomized recipient gender (wife versus husband), transfer timing (lump-sum transfer versus monthly installments), and transfer magnitude (US$404 PPP versus US$1,525 PPP). We find a strong consumption response to transfers, with an increase in household monthly consumption from $158 PPP to $193 PPP nine months after the transfer began. Transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well-being. We find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol, although there are differences across some subgroups. Monthly transfers are more likely than lump-sum transfers to improve food security, whereas lump-sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables, suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints. Together, these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well-being.

我们使用随机对照试验来研究肯尼亚农村贫困家庭对非政府组织GiveDirectly无条件现金转移的反应。这些转移与其他计划的不同之处在于,它们明确是无条件的、规模大的、集中的。我们在村和户两级进行随机化;此外,在治疗组中,我们随机分配了接受者性别(妻子还是丈夫)、转移时间(一次性转移还是每月分期付款)和转移规模(404美元PPP vs 1525美元PPP)。我们发现,在转移支付开始9个月后,家庭月消费从158美元购买力平价增加到193美元购买力平价。转移接受者在心理健康方面有很大的提高。我们没有发现对压力激素皮质醇水平的总体影响,尽管在一些亚组中存在差异。与一次性转移支付相比,每月转移支付更有可能改善粮食安全,而一次性转移支付更有可能用于耐用品,这表明家庭面临储蓄和信贷限制。综上所述,这些结果表明无条件现金转移对经济结果和心理健康有显著影响。
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引用次数: 699
Shocking Behavior: Random Wealth in Antebellum Georgia and Human Capital Across Generations. 令人震惊的行为:前乔治亚州的随机财富与跨代人力资本》(Random Wealth in Antebellum Georgia and Human Capital Across Generations)。
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-08-01 Epub Date: 2016-03-12 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw014
Hoyt Bleakley, Joseph Ferrie

Does the lack of wealth constrain parents' investments in the human capital of their descendants? We conduct a nearly fifty-year followup of an episode in which such constraints would have been plausibly relaxed by a random allocation of substantial wealth to families. We track descendants of participants in Georgia's Cherokee Land Lottery of 1832, in which nearly every adult white male in Georgia took part. Winners received close to the median level of wealth - a large financial windfall orthogonal to participants' underlying characteristics that might have also affected their children's human capital. Although winners had slightly more children than non-winners, they did not send them to school more. Sons of winners have no better adult outcomes (wealth, income, literacy) than the sons of non-winners, and winners' grandchildren do not have higher literacy or school attendance than non-winners' grandchildren. This suggests only a limited role for family financial resources in the formation of human capital in the next generations in this environment and a potentially more important role for other factors that persist through family lines.

缺乏财富是否会限制父母对后代人力资本的投资?我们对一个事件进行了近五十年的跟踪调查,在这个事件中,如果将大量财富随机分配给家庭,这种限制就会得到合理的放松。我们追踪了佐治亚州 1832 年切诺基土地彩票参与者的后代,佐治亚州几乎所有成年白人男性都参加了这次彩票。中奖者获得了接近中位数水平的财富--这是一笔巨额的意外之财,与参与者的基本特征无关,可能也会影响其子女的人力资本。虽然获胜者的子女人数略多于非获胜者,但他们并没有送更多的子女上学。与未中奖者的儿子相比,中奖者的儿子并没有更好的成人结果(财富、收入、识字率),中奖者的孙子的识字率或入学率也没有高于未中奖者的孙子。这表明,在这种环境下,家庭经济资源在下一代人力资本的形成中只能发挥有限的作用,而其他因素则可能发挥更重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Lights, Camera … Income! Illuminating the National Accounts-Household Surveys Debate 灯光、相机……收入!照亮国民账户与家庭调查之争
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW003
M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin
GDP per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries. One of the areas in which the national accounts–household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Additionally, we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor (such as longer life expectancy, better education and access to safe water), and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster. Therefore, we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts. JEL Code: I32.
人均国内生产总值(GDP)和住户调查数据显示,新兴国家的经济发展速度相互矛盾。衡量发展中国家的贫困是国民核算与家庭调查之间争论的关键领域之一。我们提出了一种数据驱动的方法,通过将人均GDP和调查手段与卫星记录的夜间灯光的演变进行比较,来评估它们的相对质量。我们的主要假设是,夜间灯光的测量误差与国民账户或调查手段的测量误差无关,这对各种规格检查都是稳健的。我们获得了国民账户和调查手段在真实收入的最佳代理中的权重估计;这些权重对于国民账户来说非常大,对于调查手段来说非常小。我们最终拒绝了调查的最优权重大于国民账户的最优权重的零假设,我们通常不能拒绝调查的最优权重为零的零假设。此外,我们提供的证据表明,国民账户是穷人理想结果的良好指标(如更长的预期寿命、更好的教育和获得安全饮用水),我们还表明,在更富裕、增长更快的发展中国家,调查似乎表现得更差。因此,我们将我们的结果解释为为基于国民账户的世界贫困估计提供了支持。JEL代码:I32。
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引用次数: 196
A Typology of Players: Between Instinctive and Contemplative 玩家的类型学:本能型和沉思型
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-02-24 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW008
A. Rubinstein
A new typology of players is proposed based on the classification of actions as either instinctive or contemplative. A person’s type is the probability of him choosing a contemplative action. To test the typology, results of 10 games are analyzed. Actions in each game were classified depending on whether their response time was more or less, respectively, than the median response time of all subjects who played the game. It is argued that fast actions are more instinctive and slow actions are more contemplative. A subject’s contemplative index (CI) is defined as the proportion of games in which he chose a contemplative action. It is found that for 8 of the 10 games, the CI in the other 9 games is positively correlated with a player’s choice of a contemplative action in that game (average Spearman correlation of 9%). The CI is used to shed light on the nature of choice in five additional games. JEL Codes: C72, C91.
基于本能行为和沉思行为的分类,提出了一种新的玩家类型。一个人的类型是他选择沉思行为的概率。为了检验这一类型学,我们分析了10个游戏的结果。每个游戏中的行为都是根据他们的反应时间是比所有玩游戏的人的平均反应时间多还是少来分类的。有人认为,快速的行动更多的是本能的,而缓慢的行动更多的是沉思的。受试者的沉思指数(CI)被定义为他在游戏中选择沉思行为的比例。我们发现,在这10款游戏中,有8款游戏的CI与玩家在游戏中所选择的沉思行为呈正相关(平均Spearman相关性为9%)。CI用于阐明另外5款游戏中选择的本质。JEL代码:C72, C91。
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引用次数: 106
期刊
Quarterly Journal of Economics
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