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Distributional,National,Accounts: Methods,and,Estimates,for,the,United,States 分配、国民账户:美国的方法和估计
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJX043
T. Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, G. Zucman
This paper combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pre-tax and post-tax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pre-tax national income per adult has increased 60% since 1980, but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50% of the distribution at about $16,000 a year. The pre-tax income of the middle class—adults between the median and the 90th percentile—has grown 40% since 1980, faster than what tax and survey data suggest, due in particular to the rise of tax-exempt fringe benefits. Income has boomed at the top: in 1980, top 1% adults earned on average 27 times more than bottom 50% adults, while they earn 81 times more today. The upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000. The government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality. The reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults. The share of women, however, falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution, and is only 11% in the top 0.1% today.
本文结合税收、调查和国民账户数据来估计自1913年以来美国的国民收入分布。我们的分配国民账户占国民收入的100%,使我们能够计算与宏观经济增长一致的收入分配的每个分位数的增长率。我们估计了税前和税后收入的分布,从而有可能全面了解政府再分配如何影响不平等。自1980年以来,每个成年人的平均税前国民收入增长了60%,但我们发现,在分配的最后50%,这一数字停滞不前,每年约为16000美元。自1980年以来,中产阶级(介于中位数和第90百分位之间的成年人)的税前收入增长了40%,比税收和调查数据显示的要快,特别是由于免税附加福利的增加。收入在顶端激增:1980年,收入最高的1%成年人的平均收入是收入最低的50%成年人的27倍,而今天他们的收入是收入的81倍。最高收入的激增最初是一种劳动收入现象,但自2000年以来,主要是资本收入现象。政府只抵消了不平等加剧的一小部分。收入中性别差距的缩小缓解了成年人之间不平等的加剧。然而,随着劳动力收入分配的增加,女性的比例急剧下降,目前在前0.1%中仅占11%。
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引用次数: 816
Erratum to “Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added: Testing and Estimation” 《利用奖券促进学校增值:测试与评估》的勘误
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjx036
J. Angrist, Peter Hull, Parag A. Pathak, Christopher R. Walters
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引用次数: 1
Erratum to “Field of Study, Earnings, and Self-Selection” “学习领域、收入和自我选择”勘误表
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJX025
L. Kirkebøen, E. Leuven, M. Mogstad
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引用次数: 3
Party Polarization in Legislatures with Office-Motivated Candidates 以办公室为动机的候选人在立法机构中的党派两极分化
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJX012
Mattias Polborn, J. Snyder
We develop a theory of legislative competition in which voters care about local candidate valence and national party positions that are determined by the parties’ median legislators. As long as election outcomes are sufficiently predictable, the only stable equilibria exhibit policy divergence between the parties. If the degree of uncertainty about election outcomes decreases, and if voters place less weight on local candidates’ valence, polarization between the parties increases. Furthermore, a systematic electoral shock makes the party favored by the shock more moderate, while the disadvantaged party becomes more extreme. Finally, we examine data on state elections and the ideological positions of state legislatures and find patterns that are consistent with key predictions of our model.
我们发展了一种立法竞争理论,在该理论中,选民关心地方候选人的效价和由政党中间立法者决定的国家政党立场。只要选举结果足够可预测,唯一稳定的均衡就表现出政党之间的政策分歧。如果选举结果的不确定性程度降低,如果选民对当地候选人的效价重视程度降低,政党之间的两极分化就会加剧。此外,系统性的选举冲击使受冲击的政党更加温和,而弱势政党则变得更加极端。最后,我们检查了州选举和州立法机构意识形态立场的数据,发现了与我们模型的关键预测一致的模式。
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引用次数: 23
Choose to Lose: Health Plan Choices from a Menu with Dominated Option 选择丢失:从具有主导选项的菜单中选择健康计划
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJX011
Saurabh Bhargava, G. Loewenstein, Justin R. Sydnor
We examine the health plan choices that 23,894 employees at a U.S. firm made from a large menu of options that differed only in financial cost-sharing and premium. These decisions provide a clear test of the predictions of the standard economic model of insurance choice in the absence of choice frictions because plans were priced so that nearly every plan with a lower deductible was financially dominated by an otherwise identical plan with a high deductible. We document that the majority of employees chose dominated plans, which resulted in excess spending equivalent to 24% of chosen plan premiums. Low-income employees were significantly more likely to choose dominated plans, and most employees did not switch into more financially efficient plans in the subsequent year. We show that the choice of dominated plans cannot be rationalized by standard risk preference or any expectations about health risk. Testing alternative explanations with a series of hypothetical-choice experiments, we find that the popularity of dominated plans was not primarily driven by the size and complexity of the plan menu, nor informed preferences for avoiding high deductibles, but by employees’ lack of understanding of health insurance. Our findings challenge the standard practice of inferring risk preferences from insurance choices and raise doubts about the welfare benefits of health reforms that expand consumer choice.
我们研究了一家美国公司23,894名员工的健康计划选择,他们选择的健康计划只有财务成本分担和保费不同。在没有选择摩擦的情况下,这些决定对保险选择的标准经济模型的预测提供了一个清晰的测试,因为计划的定价使得几乎每个免赔额较低的计划在财务上都被另一个具有高免赔额的相同计划所主导。我们发现,大多数员工选择了主导计划,这导致了相当于所选计划保费24%的超额支出。低收入员工更有可能选择主导计划,而且大多数员工在接下来的一年里没有转向更经济有效的计划。我们的研究表明,显性计划的选择不能通过标准风险偏好或对健康风险的任何预期来合理化。通过一系列的假设选择实验,我们发现主导计划的流行主要不是由于计划菜单的规模和复杂性,也不是出于避免高免赔额的知情偏好,而是由于员工对健康保险缺乏了解。我们的研究结果挑战了从保险选择中推断风险偏好的标准做法,并对扩大消费者选择的医疗改革的福利效益提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 209
Lemon technologies and adoption: measurement, theory and evidence from agricultural markets in Uganda 柠檬技术和采用:来自乌干达农业市场的测量、理论和证据
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJX009
Tessa Bold, K. Kaizzi, J. Svensson, David Yanagizawa-Drott
To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed is estimated to contain less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in low average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, however, average returns are high. To rationalize the findings, we calibrate a learning model using data from our agricultural trials. Because agricultural yields are noisy, farmers’ ability to learn about quality is limited and this can help explain the low quality equilibrium we observe, but also why the market has not fully collapsed.
要减少非洲的贫困和粮食不安全,就需要提高农业生产率。系统使用肥料和杂交种子是提高生产力的途径,但这些技术的采用率仍然很低。我们调查了农业投入的质量是否有助于解释低吸收率。通过对当地市场购买的现代产品的检测,我们发现肥料中有30%的营养缺失,杂交玉米种子的真实种子含量估计不到50%。我们证明,这种低质量导致低平均回报。然而,如果真正的技术取代了这些低质量的产品,平均回报是高的。为了使研究结果合理化,我们使用农业试验的数据校准了一个学习模型。由于农业产量是嘈杂的,农民了解质量的能力是有限的,这可以帮助解释我们观察到的低质量均衡,但也是为什么市场没有完全崩溃。
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引用次数: 150
Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets 不完全市场下的财政政策与债务管理
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW041
A. Bhandari, David Evans, M. Golosov, T. Sargent
A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an economy with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of Ramsey policies to obtain formulas for conditional and unconditional moments of government debt and taxes that include means and variances of the invariant distribution as well as speeds of mean reversion. The asymptotic mean of the planner's portfolio minimizes a measure of fiscal risk. We obtain analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution and apply them to data on a primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. For U.S. data, we find that the optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and mean reversion is slow.
拉姆齐计划者选择一种扭曲的劳动税,并在一个市场不完全的经济体中管理证券投资组合。我们开发了一种方法,该方法使用拉姆齐政策的二阶近似来获得政府债务和税收的条件和无条件时刻的公式,这些公式包括不变分布的均值和方差以及均值回归的速度。规划师的投资组合的渐近均值使财政风险的度量最小化。我们获得了近似不变分布矩的解析表达式,并将其应用于初级政府赤字、总消费和交易证券回报的数据。对于美国的数据,我们发现最优目标债务水平为负但接近于零,债务的不变分布非常分散,均值回归缓慢。
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引用次数: 78
Naivete-Based Discrimination Naivete-Based歧视
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW042
Paul Heidhues, B. Kőszegi
We initiate the study of naivete-based discrimination, the practice of conditioning offers on external information about consumers’ naivete. Knowing that a consumer is naive increases a monopolistic or competitive firm's willingness to generate inefficiency to exploit the consumer's mistakes, so naivete-based discrimination is not Pareto-improving, can be Pareto-damaging, and often lowers total welfare when classical preference-based discrimination does not. Moreover, the effect on total welfare depends on a hitherto unemphasized market feature: the extent to which the exploitation of naive consumers distorts trade with different types of consumers. If the distortion is homogeneous across naive and sophisticated consumers, then under an arguably weak and empirically testable condition, naivete-based discrimination lowers total welfare. In contrast, if the distortion arises only for trades with sophisticated consumers, then perfect naivete-based discrimination maximizes social welfare, although imperfect discrimination often lowers welfare. If the distortion arises only for trades with naive consumers, then naivete-based discrimination has no effect on welfare. We identify applications for each of these cases. In our primary example, a credit market with present-biased borrowers, firms lend more than is socially optimal to increase the amount of interest naive borrowers unexpectedly pay, creating a homogeneous distortion. The condition for naivete-based discrimination to lower welfare is then weaker than prudence.
我们开始研究基于天真的歧视,即以消费者天真的外部信息为条件提供服务的做法。知道消费者是天真的,会增加垄断或竞争性公司利用消费者错误产生低效率的意愿,因此基于天真的歧视并不能改善帕累托,可能会对帕累托造成损害,并且当基于传统偏好的歧视没有改善时,往往会降低总福利。此外,对整体福利的影响取决于一个迄今为止未被强调的市场特征:对天真消费者的剥削在多大程度上扭曲了与不同类型消费者的贸易。如果这种扭曲在天真和老练的消费者中是同质的,那么在一个可以说是软弱和经验可检验的条件下,基于天真的歧视会降低总体福利。相比之下,如果扭曲只发生在与老练消费者的交易中,那么基于完美天真的歧视会使社会福利最大化,尽管不完美的歧视往往会降低福利。如果这种扭曲只发生在与天真消费者的交易中,那么基于天真的歧视对福利没有影响。我们确定了每种情况的应用程序。在我们的主要例子中,在一个目前有偏见的借款人的信贷市场中,公司的贷款超过了社会最佳水平,从而增加了天真的借款人意外支付的利息,造成了同质扭曲。基于天真的歧视降低福利的条件比谨慎更弱。
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引用次数: 71
Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation and Growth 技术创新、资源配置与增长
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW040
L. Kogan, L. Kogan, D. Papanikolaou, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Noah Stoffman
We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to US firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent- level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations that the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation and creative destruction, consistent with the predictions of Schumpeterian growth models. Aggregating our measure suggests that technological innovation accounts for significant medium-run fluctuations in aggregate economic growth and TFP. Our measure contains additional information relative to citation-weighted patent counts; the relation between our measure and firm growth is considerably stronger. Importantly, the degree of creative destruction that is associated with our measure is higher than previous estimates, confirming that it is a useful proxy for the private valuation of patents.
我们提出了衡量每一项创新的经济重要性的新方法。我们的衡量标准使用了1926年至2010年期间新收集的美国公司专利数据,并结合股市对专利消息的反应。我们对私人经济价值的专利水平估计与这些专利的科学价值呈正相关,这是通过专利在未来被引用的次数来衡量的。我们的新衡量标准与实质性增长、再分配和创造性破坏有关,这与熊彼特增长模型的预测一致。综合我们的衡量标准表明,技术创新是总经济增长和全要素生产率中期波动的主要原因。我们的度量包含与引用加权专利计数相关的额外信息;我们的衡量标准与企业增长之间的关系要牢固得多。重要的是,与我们的衡量标准相关的创造性破坏程度高于之前的估计,这证实了它是专利私人估价的有用指标。
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引用次数: 145
A Method for Measuring Metabolism in Sorted Subpopulations of Complex Cell Communities Using Stable Isotope Tracing. 利用稳定同位素追踪测量复杂细胞群落分类亚群代谢的方法
IF 1.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-02-04 DOI: 10.3791/55011
Irena Roci, Hector Gallart-Ayala, Jeramie Watrous, Mohit Jain, Craig E Wheelock, Roland Nilsson

Mammalian cell types exhibit specialized metabolism, and there is ample evidence that various co-existing cell types engage in metabolic cooperation. Moreover, even cultures of a single cell type may contain cells in distinct metabolic states, such as resting or cycling cells. Methods for measuring metabolic activities of such subpopulations are valuable tools for understanding cellular metabolism. Complex cell populations are most commonly separated using a cell sorter, and subpopulations isolated by this method can be analyzed by metabolomics methods. However, a problem with this approach is that the cell sorting procedure subjects cells to stresses that may distort their metabolism. To overcome these issues, we reasoned that the mass isotopomer distributions (MIDs) of metabolites from cells cultured with stable isotope-labeled nutrients are likely to be more stable than absolute metabolite concentrations, because MIDs are formed over longer time scales and should be less affected by short-term exposure to cell sorting conditions. Here, we describe a method based on this principle, combining cell sorting with liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). The procedure involves analyzing three types of samples: (1) metabolite extracts obtained directly from the complex population; (2) extracts of "mock sorted" cells passed through the cell sorter instrument without gating any specific population; and (3) extracts of the actual sorted populations. The mock sorted cells are compared against direct extraction to verify that MIDs are indeed not altered by the cell sorting procedure itself, prior to analyzing the actual sorted populations. We show example results from HeLa cells sorted according to cell cycle phase, revealing changes in nucleotide metabolism.

哺乳动物的细胞类型表现出特化的新陈代谢,而且有大量证据表明,各种共存的细胞类型会进行新陈代谢合作。此外,即使是单一细胞类型的培养物也可能含有处于不同代谢状态的细胞,如静息或循环细胞。测量此类亚群代谢活动的方法是了解细胞代谢的重要工具。复杂的细胞群最常用细胞分拣机进行分离,用这种方法分离出来的亚群可以用代谢组学方法进行分析。然而,这种方法的一个问题是,细胞分拣过程会使细胞受到压力,从而可能扭曲其新陈代谢。为了克服这些问题,我们推断使用稳定同位素标记营养物培养的细胞中代谢物的质量同位素分布(MID)可能比代谢物的绝对浓度更稳定,因为MID是在较长的时间尺度内形成的,受短期暴露于细胞分拣条件的影响较小。在此,我们介绍一种基于此原理的方法,该方法结合了细胞分拣和液相色谱-高分辨质谱(LC-HRMS)技术。该方法涉及分析三种类型的样品:(1) 直接从复杂群体中提取的代谢物提取物;(2) 通过细胞分拣仪的 "模拟分拣 "细胞提取物,不对任何特定群体进行分拣;(3) 实际分拣群体的提取物。在分析实际分选的群体之前,我们将模拟分选的细胞与直接提取的细胞进行比较,以验证 MID 确实没有被细胞分选程序本身所改变。我们展示了根据细胞周期阶段对 HeLa 细胞进行分选的结果示例,揭示了核苷酸代谢的变化。
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引用次数: 0
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Quarterly Journal of Economics
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