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The Geography of Unemployment 失业的地理分布
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-23 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad010
Adrien Bilal
Abstract Unemployment rates differ widely across local labor markets. I offer new empirical evidence that high local unemployment emerges because of elevated local job-losing rates. Local employers, rather than local workers or location-specific factors, account for most of the spatial gaps in job stability. I propose a theory in which spatial differences in job loss emerge in equilibrium because of systematic differences between employers across local labor markets. The spatial sorting decisions of employers in turn shape heterogeneity across locations. Labor market frictions induce productive employers to overvalue locating close to each other. The optimal policy incentivizes them to relocate toward areas with high job-losing rates, providing a rationale for commonly used place-based policies. I estimate the model using French administrative data. The estimated model accounts for over three-quarters of the cross-sectional dispersion in unemployment rates and for the respective contributions of job-losing and job-finding rates. Inefficient location choices by employers amplify spatial unemployment differentials fivefold. Both real-world and optimal place-based policies can yield sizable local and aggregate welfare gains.
各地劳动力市场的失业率差异很大。我提供了新的经验证据,表明当地高失业率的出现是由于当地失业率的上升。工作稳定性的空间差距主要是由当地雇主造成的,而不是由当地工人或特定地点因素造成的。我提出了一个理论,在这个理论中,由于当地劳动力市场上雇主之间的系统性差异,失业的空间差异以均衡的方式出现。雇主的空间分类决策反过来塑造了不同地点的异质性。劳动力市场的摩擦导致生产性雇主高估彼此靠近的位置。最优政策激励他们迁往失业率高的地区,为常用的基于地方的政策提供了理由。我使用法国的行政数据来估计模型。估计的模型解释了失业率横截面分布的四分之三以上,以及失业和找到工作率各自的贡献。雇主低效的地点选择将空间失业差异放大了5倍。现实世界和最优的基于地方的政策都可以产生可观的地方和总体福利收益。
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引用次数: 3
Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient? 管制不应课税的外部性:车辆空气污染标准是否有效?
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad016
Mark R Jacobsen, James M Sallee, Joseph S Shapiro, Arthur A Van Benthem
Abstract The world has 1.4 billion passenger vehicles. How should governments regulate their air pollution emissions? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of U.S. Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new U.S. vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99%, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, although both reforms have complex effects on inequality.
世界上有14亿辆乘用车。政府应如何管制空气污染排放?庇古税在技术上是不可行的。相反,大多数国家依赖于限制新车每英里空气污染排放量的排放标准。我们评估了这些标准的有效性和效率,这些标准是美国《清洁空气法》对交通运输和反事实政策监管的核心。我们的研究表明,自1967年开始实施标准以来,美国新车每英里的空气污染排放量已经显著下降了99%以上。几项基于半个世纪数据的研究设计表明,废气排放标准是造成这种下降的主要原因。然而,废气排放标准并不具有成本效益,部分原因是它们未能鼓励报废旧车,而旧车是排放的主要来源。为了研究反事实政策,我们开发了一个车队的分析和定量模型。对这些模型的分析表明,更严格的尾气排放标准会增加社会福利,而提高污染车辆的注册费会加速报废,从而产生更大的收益,尽管这两项改革对不平等都有复杂的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Imperfect Risk Sharing and the Business Cycle 不完全风险分担与商业周期
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad013
David Berger, Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis
Abstract This article studies the macroeconomic implications of imperfect risk sharing implied by a class of New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. The models in this class can be equivalently represented as a representative-agent economy with wedges. These wedges are functions of households’ consumption shares and relative wages, and they identify the key cross-sectional moments that govern the impact of households’ heterogeneity on aggregate variables. We measure the wedges using U.S. household-level data and combine them with a representative-agent economy to perform counterfactuals. We find that deviations from perfect risk sharing implied by this class of models account for only 7% of output volatility on average but can have sizable output effects when nominal interest rates reach their lower bound.
摘要本文研究了一类具有异质主体的新凯恩斯模型所隐含的不完全风险分担的宏观经济含义。这类模型可以等效地表示为带有楔形的代表-代理经济。这些楔形是家庭消费份额和相对工资的函数,它们确定了控制家庭异质性对总变量影响的关键横截面时刻。我们使用美国家庭层面的数据来测量楔形,并将它们与代表性代理经济相结合,以执行反事实。我们发现,这类模型所隐含的与完全风险分担的偏差平均只占产出波动的7%,但当名义利率达到其下界时,可能会产生相当大的产出影响。
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引用次数: 1
The Other Great Migration: Southern Whites and the New Right 另一次大移民:南方白人和新右翼
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad014
Samuel Bazzi, Andreas Ferrara, Martin Fiszbein, Thomas P. Pearson, Patrick A. Testa
Abstract This article shows how the migration of millions of Southern whites in the twentieth century shaped the cultural and political landscape across the United States. Racially and religiously conservative, Southern white migrants created new electoral possibilities for a broad-based coalition with economic conservatives. With their considerable geographic scope, these migrants hastened partisan realignment and helped catalyze and bolster a New Right movement with national influence over the long run. More than just augmenting the conservative voter base outside the South, they influenced non-Southerners by building evangelical churches, diffusing right-wing media, and mixing through intermarriage and residential integration. Tracking non-Southern households, we show that exposure to Southern white neighbors increased adoption of conservative religious norms. Overall, our findings suggest that this mass migration blurred the North–South cultural divide and reshaped the geography of conservatism in the United States.
摘要:这篇文章展示了20世纪数以百万计的南方白人的移民如何塑造了整个美国的文化和政治格局。南方白人移民在种族和宗教上都很保守,他们为与经济保守派结成广泛的联盟创造了新的选举可能性。这些移民的地理分布相当广泛,他们加速了党派的重组,从长远来看,他们帮助催化和支持了一场具有全国影响力的新右翼运动。他们不仅扩大了南方以外的保守派选民基础,还通过建立福音派教堂、传播右翼媒体、通过异族通婚和居住融合来影响非南方人。通过对非南方家庭的跟踪研究,我们发现与南方白人邻居的接触增加了对保守宗教规范的接受。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,这种大规模的移民模糊了南北文化鸿沟,重塑了美国保守主义的地理位置。
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引用次数: 4
AI-tocracy 哦-tocracy
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad012
Martin Beraja, Andrew Kao, David Y Yang, Noam Yuchtman
Abstract Recent scholarship has suggested that artificial intelligence (AI) technology and autocratic regimes may be mutually reinforcing. We test for a mutually reinforcing relationship in the context of facial-recognition AI in China. To do so, we gather comprehensive data on AI firms and government procurement contracts, as well as on social unrest across China since the early 2010s. We first show that autocrats benefit from AI: local unrest leads to greater government procurement of facial-recognition AI as a new technology of political control, and increased AI procurement indeed suppresses subsequent unrest. We show that AI innovation benefits from autocrats’ suppression of unrest: the contracted AI firms innovate more both for the government and commercial markets and are more likely to export their products; noncontracted AI firms do not experience detectable negative spillovers. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility of sustained AI innovation under the Chinese regime: AI innovation entrenches the regime, and the regime’s investment in AI for political control stimulates further frontier innovation.
最近的学术研究表明,人工智能(AI)技术和专制政权可能是相互促进的。我们在中国的面部识别人工智能背景下测试了一种相互加强的关系。为此,我们收集了有关人工智能公司和政府采购合同的全面数据,以及自2010年代初以来中国各地的社会动荡情况。我们首先表明,独裁者从人工智能中受益:地方骚乱导致政府更多地采购面部识别人工智能,作为一种新的政治控制技术,增加人工智能采购确实抑制了随后的骚乱。我们表明,人工智能创新受益于独裁者对动荡的镇压:签约的人工智能公司为政府和商业市场都进行了更多的创新,并且更有可能出口他们的产品;未签约的人工智能公司没有明显的负面溢出效应。综上所述,这些结果表明在中国政权下持续人工智能创新的可能性:人工智能创新巩固了政权,而政权对人工智能的投资用于政治控制刺激了进一步的前沿创新。
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引用次数: 0
Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory 期望中的过度反应:证据与理论
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-06 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad009
Hassan Afrouzi, Spencer Y Kwon, Augustin Landier, Yueran Ma, David Thesmar
Abstract We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data-generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We report three facts. First, forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Second, overreaction is stronger for less persistent processes. Third, overreaction is also stronger for longer forecast horizons. We develop a tractable model of expectations formation with costly processing of past information, which closely fits the empirical facts. We also perform additional experiments to test the mechanism of the model.
摘要:本文通过一项大规模随机实验,研究了不同环境下参与者对稳定随机过程的预测偏差。这个实验使我们能够控制预测者的信息集以及数据生成过程,因此我们可以清楚地测量信念中的偏差。我们报告三个事实。首先,预测显示出对最近观察结果的严重过度反应。其次,对于不太持久的过程,过度反应更强烈。第三,对于较长期的预测,过度反应也更为强烈。我们开发了一个易于处理的模型的期望形成与昂贵的处理过去的信息,这非常符合经验事实。我们还进行了额外的实验来测试模型的机制。
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引用次数: 4
Visual Inference and Graphical Representation in Regression Discontinuity Designs 回归不连续设计中的视觉推理与图形表示
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad011
Christina Korting, Carl Lieberman, Jordan Matsudaira, Zhuan Pei, Yi Shen
Abstract Despite the widespread use of graphs in empirical research, little is known about readers’ ability to process the statistical information they are meant to convey (“visual inference”). We study visual inference in the context of regression discontinuity (RD) designs by measuring how accurately readers identify discontinuities in graphs produced from data-generating processes calibrated on 11 published papers from leading economics journals. First, we assess the effects of different graphical representation methods on visual inference using randomized experiments. We find that bin widths and fit lines have the largest effects on whether participants correctly perceive the presence or absence of a discontinuity. Our experimental results allow us to make evidence-based recommendations to practitioners, and we suggest using small bins with no fit lines as a starting point to construct RD graphs. Second, we compare visual inference on graphs constructed using our preferred method with widely used econometric inference procedures. We find that visual inference achieves similar or lower type I error (false positive) rates and complements econometric inference.
尽管在实证研究中广泛使用图表,但读者处理统计信息的能力(“视觉推理”)却知之甚少。我们研究了回归不连续(RD)设计背景下的视觉推理,通过测量读者在数据生成过程中识别不连续图的准确性,这些图表是根据11篇发表在主要经济学期刊上的论文进行校准的。首先,我们通过随机实验评估了不同图形表示方法对视觉推理的影响。我们发现,bin宽度和拟合线对参与者是否正确感知不连续性的存在或不存在有最大的影响。我们的实验结果使我们能够向从业者提出基于证据的建议,并且我们建议使用没有拟合线的小箱子作为构建RD图的起点。其次,我们比较了使用我们的首选方法构建的图形的视觉推理与广泛使用的计量经济学推理程序。我们发现视觉推理达到相似或更低的I型错误率(假阳性),并补充计量经济学推理。
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引用次数: 1
How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates 竞选活动如何影响投票选择?62次选举和56次电视辩论的多国证据
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad002
Caroline Le Pennec, Vincent Pons
Abstract We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.
本文利用1952年以来10个国家62次选举的两轮调查数据,研究了投票选择、信仰和政策偏好的形成,并评估了电视辩论如何促进这一过程。我们的数据包括253,000个观测值。我们比较了在选举前后不同时间点接受调查的受访者的投票意向和投票选择之间的一致性,结果表明,17%至29%的选民在竞选的最后两个月做出了决定。投票选择的变化伴随着选民认为最重要的问题和对候选人的看法的变化,它们会导致选票份额的大幅波动。相比之下,在整个竞选过程中,政策偏好保持了相当稳定。最后,我们使用事件研究来估计电视辩论的影响,在电视辩论中,候选人自己与选民沟通,以及自然和技术灾害等冲击,相比之下,独立于竞选活动发生。我们没有发现这两种类型的事件对投票选择形成有任何影响,这表明在整个竞选过程中,从其他来源(如媒体、政治活动家和其他公民)获得的信息更有影响力。
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引用次数: 3
ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REFEREES 确认推荐人
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad008
Journal Article Accepted manuscript Acknowledgment of Referees Get access Thomas Hugh Baranga Thomas Hugh Baranga E-mail: baranga@fas.harvard.edu Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, qjad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad008 Published: 21 February 2023
访问Thomas Hugh Baranga Thomas Hugh Baranga E-mail: baranga@fas.harvard.edu搜索作者的其他作品:Oxford Academic b谷歌Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, qjad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad008出版日期:2023年2月21日
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引用次数: 0
The Political Economics of Green Transitions 绿色转型的政治经济学
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad006
Timothy Besley, Torsten Persson
Abstract Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases may be almost impossible without a green transition—a substantial transformation of consumption and production patterns. To study such transitions, we propose a dynamic model, which differs from the common approach in economics in two ways. First, consumption patterns reflect not just changing prices and taxes, but changing values. Transitions of values and technologies create a dynamic complementarity that can help or hinder a green transition. Second, and unlike fictitious social planners, policy makers in democratic societies cannot commit to future policy paths, as they are subject to regular elections. We show that market failures and government failures can interact to prevent a welfare-increasing green transition from materializing or make an ongoing green transition too slow.
如果没有绿色转型——消费和生产模式的重大转变,减少温室气体排放几乎是不可能的。为了研究这种转变,我们提出了一个动态模型,它在两个方面不同于经济学中的常用方法。首先,消费模式不仅反映了价格和税收的变化,也反映了价值的变化。价值观和技术的转变创造了一种动态的互补性,可以帮助或阻碍绿色转型。其次,与虚构的社会规划者不同,民主社会的政策制定者无法承诺未来的政策路径,因为他们要接受定期选举。我们表明,市场失灵和政府失灵可以相互作用,阻止福利增加的绿色转型实现,或使正在进行的绿色转型过于缓慢。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Quarterly Journal of Economics
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