Quarterly Journal of Economics最新文献

英文中文

Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches have Efficiency Costs? 消除机动车搜索中的种族差异会带来效率成本吗？

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-05-21 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAB018

B. Feigenberg, Conrad Miller

During traffic stops, police search black and Hispanic motorists more than twice as often as white motorists, yet those searches are no more likely to yield contraband. We ask whether equalizing search rates by motorist race would reduce contraband yield. We use unique administrative data from Texas to isolate variation in search behavior across and within highway patrol troopers and find that search rates are unrelated to the proportion of searches that yield contraband. We find that troopers can equalize search rates across racial groups, maintain the status quo search rate, and increase contraband yield. Troopers appear to be limited in their ability to discern between motorists that are more or less likely to carry contraband. JEL Codes: J15, K42. ∗We thank the editors, Larry Katz and Stefanie Stantcheva, five anonymous referees, Ian Ayres, Felipe Goncalves, Peter Hull, Patrick Kline, Jonathan Leonard, David Levine, Dan O’Flaherty, Steven Rivkin, Evan Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Chris Walters, and seminar participants at USC, University of Illinois, Chicago, the Online Economics of Crime seminar, the Online Economics of Racism seminar, NBER Summer Institute, Yale SOM, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT for helpful comments. We thank researchers at the Stanford Open Policing Project for providing data on Texas Highway Patrol stops. We thank the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at Haas for providing computing resources.

在交通堵塞期间，警察搜查黑人和西班牙裔司机的频率是白人司机的两倍多，但这些搜查不太可能产生违禁品。我们想知道，按驾车者种族平均搜索率是否会降低违禁品产量。我们使用来自得克萨斯州的独特行政数据来隔离高速公路巡逻队内部和内部搜查行为的差异，发现搜查率与产生违禁品的搜查比例无关。我们发现，骑警可以使不同种族的搜查率相等，维持现状的搜查率，并增加违禁品的产量。士兵们辨别或多或少可能携带违禁品的司机的能力似乎有限。JEL代码：J15、K42.*我们感谢编辑Larry Katz和Stefanie Stantcheva，五位匿名裁判Ian Ayres、Felipe Goncalves、Peter Hull、Patrick Kline、Jonathan Leonard、David Levine、Dan O’Flaherty、Steven Rivkin、Evan Rose、Yotam Shem Tov、Chris Walters，NBER Summer Institute、Yale SOM、Harvard、Stanford和MIT提供有用的评论。我们感谢斯坦福开放警务项目的研究人员提供了德克萨斯州公路巡逻站的数据。我们感谢哈斯费雪房地产和城市经济中心提供的计算资源。

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引用次数: 19

The Economic Consequences of Increasing Sleep Among the Urban Poor. 城市贫困人口睡眠增加的经济后果。

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-04-08 eCollection Date: 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab013

Pedro Bessone, Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach, Heather Schofield, Mattie Toma

The urban poor in developing countries face challenging living environments, which may interfere with good sleep. Using actigraphy to measure sleep objectively, we find that low-income adults in Chennai, India, sleep only 5.5 hours a night on average despite spending 8 hours in bed. Their sleep is highly interrupted, with sleep efficiency-sleep per time in bed-comparable to those with disorders such as sleep apnea or insomnia. A randomized three-week treatment providing information, encouragement, and improvements to home sleep environments increased sleep duration by 27 minutes a night by inducing more time in bed. Contrary to expert predictions and a large body of sleep research, increased nighttime sleep had no detectable effects on cognition, productivity, decision making, or well being, and led to small decreases in labor supply. In contrast, short afternoon naps at the workplace improved an overall index of outcomes by 0.12 standard deviations, with significant increases in productivity, psychological well-being, and cognition, but a decrease in work time.

发展中国家的城市穷人面临着充满挑战的生活环境，这可能会干扰良好的睡眠。使用活动描记术客观地测量睡眠，我们发现印度金奈的低收入成年人尽管在床上呆了8个小时，但平均每晚只睡5.5个小时。他们的睡眠高度中断，每次在床上的睡眠效率与睡眠呼吸暂停或失眠等疾病患者相当。一项为期三周的随机治疗提供了信息、鼓励和改善家庭睡眠环境，通过诱导更多的卧床时间，每晚的睡眠时间增加了27分钟。与专家预测和大量睡眠研究相反，增加夜间睡眠对认知、生产力、决策或幸福感没有明显影响，并导致劳动力供应小幅减少。相比之下，在工作场所短暂的午觉使总体结果指数提高了0.12个标准差，生产力、心理健康和认知能力显著提高，但工作时间减少。

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引用次数: 0

Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior* 失业保险与求职行为*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-03-24 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa037

I. Marinescu, Daphné Skandalis

Unemployment insurance (UI) can affect unemployment duration and re-employment wages, through various dimensions of unemployed workers’ job search behavior. We shed light on the effects of UI on job search behavior using new longitudinal data: we link administrative registers to data from a major online search platform, and track the job applications sent over the unemployment spells of about 500,000 French workers. We identify changes in individual search behavior caused by UI around benefits exhaustion, after accounting for changes in the sample composition—i.e. dynamic selection—and for the effect of the time spent unemployed—i.e. duration dependence. We show that search effort (the count of job applications) increases by at least 50% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion and remains relatively high thereafter. The target monthly wage decreases by at least 2.4% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion, and remains relatively low thereafter. We document particularly large dynamic selection around benefits exhaustion, as some workers increase their search effort more before exhaustion and find a job faster. We also show evidence for duration dependence: workers decrease their target wage by 1.5% over each year of unemployment, irrespective of their UI status. Overall, the effect of UI on individual search behavior is consistent with the predictions of search models and constitutes evidence against search-free models where UI merely subsidizes leisure.

失业保险可以通过失业人员求职行为的各个维度影响失业期限和再就业工资。我们使用新的纵向数据揭示了用户界面对求职行为的影响：我们将行政登记与主要在线搜索平台的数据联系起来，并跟踪在约50万法国工人失业期间发送的求职申请。在考虑了样本组成的变化（即动态选择）和失业时间的影响（即持续时间依赖性）后，我们确定了福利耗尽前后用户界面导致的个人搜索行为的变化。我们发现，在福利耗尽前一年，搜索工作量（求职人数）至少增加了50%，此后保持相对较高的水平。在福利耗尽前一年，目标月工资至少下降2.4%，此后仍相对较低。我们记录了围绕福利耗尽的特别大的动态选择，因为一些员工在耗尽之前会加大搜索力度，更快地找到工作。我们还展示了持续时间依赖性的证据：工人在失业的每一年中，无论他们的UI状态如何，他们的目标工资都会下降1.5%。总体而言，用户界面对个人搜索行为的影响与搜索模型的预测一致，并构成了反对用户界面仅补贴休闲的无搜索模型的证据。

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引用次数: 11

Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating* 信念运动、不确定性消减与理性更新*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-03-24 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAA043

Ned Augenblick, M. Rabin

When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

当贝叶斯学习新信息并改变她的信念时，她必须同时对世界的状态更加确定。因此，贝叶斯很少在保持相对不确定的同时频繁地大幅改变信念，或者相反，在信念运动相对较少的情况下变得非常自信。我们通过在贝叶斯信念随时间变化的情况下开发运动和不确定性减少的具体度量来形式化这种直觉，表明这些度量在期望值上是相等的，并为贝叶斯性创建相应的统计测试。然后，我们展示了这两个核心概念和四种常见的心理偏见之间的联系，这表明该测试可能特别善于检测这些偏见。我们通过模拟我们的测试和其他鞅测试的性能来支持这一结论。最后，我们将我们的测试应用于个人、算法和市场信念的数据集。

引用次数: 28

The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline* 劳动收入占比下降的微观剖析*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-03-24 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAB002

Matthias Kehrig, Nicolas Vincent

The labor share in U.S. manufacturing declined from 62 percentage points (ppts) in 1967 to 41 ppts in 2012. The labor share of the typical U.S. manufacturing establishment, in contrast, rose by over 3 ppts during the same period. Using micro-level data, we document five salient facts: (1) since the 1980s, there has been a dramatic reallocation of value added toward the lower end of the labor share distribution; (2) this aggregate reallocation is not due to entry/exit, to “superstars” growing faster or to large establishments lowering their labor shares, but is instead due to units whose labor share fell as they grew in size; (3) low labor share (LL) establishments benefit from high revenue labor productivity, not low wages; (4) they also enjoy a product price premium relative to their peers, pointing to a significant role for demand-side forces; and (5) they have only temporarily lower labor shares that rebound after five to eight years. This transient pattern has become more pronounced over time, and the dynamics of value added and employment are increasingly disconnected.

美国制造业的劳动收入占比从1967年的62个百分点下降到2012年的41个百分点。相比之下，美国典型制造业企业的劳动收入占比同期上升了3个百分点以上。使用微观层面的数据，我们记录了五个突出的事实:(1)自20世纪80年代以来，增加的价值向劳动份额分配的低端发生了戏剧性的再分配;(2)这种总再分配不是由于进入/退出，“超级明星”增长更快或大型机构降低了劳动份额，而是由于单位的劳动份额随着规模的增长而下降;(3)低劳动份额(LL)企业受益于高收入劳动生产率，而不是低工资;(4)它们还享有相对于同行的产品价格溢价，这表明需求方面的力量发挥了重要作用;(5)它们的劳动收入占比只是暂时较低，5到8年后才会反弹。随着时间的推移，这种短暂的模式变得更加明显，增值和就业的动态越来越脱节。

引用次数: 41

Folklore. 民间传说。

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2021-01-30 eCollection Date: 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab003

Stelios Michalopoulos, Melanie Meng Xue

Folklore is the collection of traditional beliefs, customs, and stories of a community passed through the generations by word of mouth. We introduce to economics a unique catalog of oral traditions spanning approximately 1,000 societies. After validating the catalog's content by showing that the groups' motifs reflect known geographic and social attributes, we present two sets of applications. First, we illustrate how to fill in the gaps and expand upon a group's ethnographic record, focusing on political complexity, high gods, and trade. Second, we discuss how machine learning and human classification methods can help shed light on cultural traits, using gender roles, attitudes toward risk, and trust as examples. Societies with tales portraying men as dominant and women as submissive tend to relegate their women to subordinate positions in their communities, both historically and today. More risk-averse and less entrepreneurial people grew up listening to stories wherein competitions and challenges are more likely to be harmful than beneficial. Communities with low tolerance toward antisocial behavior, captured by the prevalence of tricksters being punished, are more trusting and prosperous today. These patterns hold across groups, countries, and second-generation immigrants. Overall, the results highlight the significance of folklore in cultural economics, calling for additional applications.

民间传说是一个社区的传统信仰、习俗和故事的集合，通过口口相传代代相传。我们向经济学介绍了跨越大约1000个社会的口述传统的独特目录。通过显示组的主题反映已知的地理和社会属性来验证目录的内容之后，我们提出了两组应用程序。首先，我们说明了如何填补空白并扩展一个群体的民族志记录，重点是政治复杂性，高神和贸易。其次，我们讨论了机器学习和人类分类方法如何帮助揭示文化特征，以性别角色、对风险的态度和信任为例。无论是历史上还是今天，那些传说中把男人描绘成主宰而女人是顺从的社会，往往会把女人置于社会中的从属地位。更倾向于规避风险、更缺乏创业精神的人从小就听着竞争和挑战弊大于利的故事长大。对反社会行为容忍度较低的社区，由于骗子普遍受到惩罚，今天更容易信任和繁荣。这些模式适用于不同群体、国家和第二代移民。总的来说，研究结果突出了民俗学在文化经济学中的重要意义，需要进一步的应用。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying the Gap Between Equilibrium and Optimum under Monopolistic Competition* 垄断竞争下均衡与最优差距的量化研究*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAA017

K. Behrens, Giordano Mion, Yasusada Murata, Jens Suedekum

Equilibria and optima generally differ in imperfectly competitive markets. While this is well understood theoretically, it is unclear how large the welfare distortions are in the aggregate economy. Do they matter quantitatively? To answer this question, we develop a multi-sector monopolistic competition model with endogenous firm entry and selection, productivity, and markups. Using French and British data, we quantify the gap between the equilibrium and optimal allocations. In our preferred specification, inefficiencies in the labor allocation and entry between sectors, as well as inefficient selection and output per firm within sectors, generate welfare losses of about 6–10% of GDP.

在不完全竞争市场中，均衡和最优通常是不同的。虽然这在理论上得到了很好的理解，但目前尚不清楚福利扭曲在整体经济中有多大。它们在数量上重要吗?为了回答这个问题，我们建立了一个包含内生企业进入和选择、生产率和加价的多部门垄断竞争模型。利用法国和英国的数据，我们量化了均衡分配和最优分配之间的差距。在我们首选的规范中，部门之间劳动力配置和进入的低效率，以及部门内每个企业的低效率选择和产出，产生的福利损失约占GDP的6-10%。

引用次数: 17

The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London* 现代都市的形成:来自伦敦的证据*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa014

Stephan Heblich, S. Redding, D. Sturm

Using newly constructed spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801 to 1921, we show that the invention of the steam railway led to the first large-scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that a class of quantitative urban models is remarkably successful in explaining this reorganization of economic activity. We structurally estimate one of the models in this class and find substantial agglomeration forces in both production and residence. In counterfactuals, we find that removing the whole railway network reduces the population and the value of land and buildings in London by up to 51.5% and 53.3% respectively, and decreases net commuting into the historical center of London by more than 300,000 workers.

使用1801年至1921年新构建的伦敦空间分类数据，我们发现蒸汽铁路的发明导致了工作场所和住宅的首次大规模分离。我们证明了一类定量城市模型在解释这种经济活动重组方面是非常成功的。我们从结构上估计了这类模型中的一个，并发现生产和居住中都存在巨大的集聚力。相反，我们发现，拆除整个铁路网将使伦敦的人口和土地及建筑价值分别减少51.5%和53.3%，并使前往伦敦历史中心的净通勤减少了30多万工人。

引用次数: 38

The Use and Misuse of Coordinated Punishments* 协调惩罚的使用与滥用*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa035

Daniel Barron, Yingni Guo

Communication facilitates cooperation by ensuring that deviators are collectively punished. We explore how players might misuse communication to threaten one another, and we identify ways that organizations can deter misuse and restore cooperation. In our model, a principal plays trust games with a sequence of short-run agents who communicate with one another. An agent can shirk and then extort pay by threatening to report that the principal deviated. We show that these threats can completely undermine cooperation. Investigations of agents’ efforts, or dyadic relationships between the principal and each agent, can deter extortion and restore some cooperation. Investigations of the principal’s action, on the other hand, typically do not help. Our analysis suggests that collective punishments are vulnerable to misuse unless they are designed with an eye towards discouraging it. JEL: C73, D02, D70. ∗Corresponding author: Daniel Barron, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management, Evanston IL 60208; email: d-barron@kellogg.northwestern.edu. The authors would like to thank Nageeb Ali, Charles Angelucci, Nemanja Antic, Alessandro Bonatti, Renee Bowen, Joyee Deb, Wouter Dessein, Matthias Fahn, Benjamin Friedrich, George Georgiadis, Marina Halac, Johannes Hörner, Peter Klibanov, Ilan Kremer, Nicolas Lambert, Stephan Lauermann, Jin Li, Elliot Lipnowski, Shuo Liu, Bentley MacLeod, David Miller, Joshua Mollner, Dilip Mookherjee, Arijit Mukherjee, Jacopo Perego, Michael Powell, Luis Rayo, Jonah Rockoff, Mark Satterthwaite, Andy Skrzypacz, Takuo Sugaya, Jeroen Swinkels, Joel Watson, and audiences at many conferences, workshops, and seminars. We thank the UCSD theory reading group for comments on a draft of this paper, and Andres Espitia for excellent research assistance.

沟通有助于合作，确保破坏者受到集体惩罚。我们探讨了参与者如何滥用通信来威胁彼此，并确定了组织可以阻止滥用和恢复合作的方法。在我们的模型中，委托人与一系列相互沟通的短期代理人进行信任游戏。代理人可以通过威胁报告委托人的行为来推卸责任，然后勒索报酬。我们表明，这些威胁会完全破坏合作。调查代理人的努力，或者委托人和每个代理人之间的二元关系，可以阻止勒索并恢复一些合作。另一方面，对校长行为的调查通常没有帮助。我们的分析表明，集体惩罚很容易被滥用，除非它们的设计着眼于劝阻。JEL:C73，D02，D70。*通讯作者：Daniel Barron，西北大学凯洛格管理学院，伊利诺伊州埃文斯顿60208；电子邮件：d-barron@kellogg.northwestern.edu.作者感谢Nageeb Ali、Charles Angelucci、Nemanja Antic、Alessandro Bonatti、Renee Bowen、Joyee Deb、Wouter Dessein、Matthias Fahn、Benjamin Friedrich、George Georgiadis、Marina Halac、Johannes Hörner、Peter Klibanov、Ilan Kremer、Nicolas Lambert、Stephan Lauermann、Jin Li、Elliot Lipnowski、Shuo Liu、Bentley MacLeod、David Miller、Joshua Mollner、Dilip Mookherjee，Arijit Mukherjee、Jacobo Perego、Michael Powell、Luis Rayo、Jonah Rockoff、Mark Satterthwaite、Andy Skrzypacz、Takuo Sugaya、Jeroen Swinkels、Joel Watson以及许多会议、研讨会和研讨会的观众。我们感谢加州大学可持续发展学院理论阅读小组对本文草稿的评论，并感谢Andres Espitia的出色研究协助。

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引用次数: 8

Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality* 最低工资与种族不平等*

IF 13.7 1区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAA031

Ellora Derenoncourt, Claire Montialoux

The earnings difference between white and black workers fell dramatically in the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This article shows that the expansion of the minimum wage played a critical role in this decline. The 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act extended federal minimum wage coverage to agriculture, restaurants, nursing homes, and other services that were previously uncovered and where nearly a third of black workers were employed. We digitize over 1,000 hourly wage distributions from Bureau of Labor Statistics industry wage reports and use CPS microdata to investigate the effects of this reform on wages, employment, and racial inequality. Using a cross-industry difference-in-differences design, we show that earnings rose sharply for workers in the newly covered industries. The impact was nearly twice as large for black workers as for white workers. Within treated industries, the racial gap adjusted for observables fell from 25 log points prereform to 0 afterward. We can rule out significant disemployment effects for black workers. Using a bunching design, we find no aggregate effect of the reform on employment. The 1967 extension of the minimum wage can explain more than 20% of the reduction in the racial earnings and income gap during the civil rights era. Our findings shed new light on the dynamics of labor market inequality in the United States and suggest that minimum wage policy can play a critical role in reducing racial economic disparities. JEL Codes: J38, J23, J15, J31

20世纪60年代末和70年代初，美国白人和黑人工人的收入差距急剧下降。这篇文章表明，最低工资的扩大在这一下降中发挥了关键作用。1966年的《公平劳动标准法》将联邦最低工资覆盖范围扩大到农业、餐馆、疗养院和其他服务业，这些服务业以前没有被覆盖，近三分之一的黑人工人受雇于这些服务业。我们将劳工统计局行业工资报告中的1000多个小时工资分布数字化，并使用CPS微观数据来调查这项改革对工资、就业和种族不平等的影响。使用跨行业差异设计，我们发现新覆盖行业的工人收入大幅增长。对黑人工人的影响几乎是白人工人的两倍。在经过处理的行业中，经可观察性调整后的种族差距从之前的25个对数点下降到之后的0。我们可以排除黑人工人失业的严重影响。使用集群设计，我们没有发现改革对就业的总体影响。1967年最低工资的延长可以解释民权时代种族收入和收入差距缩小20%以上的原因。我们的研究结果为美国劳动力市场不平等的动态提供了新的线索，并表明最低工资政策可以在减少种族经济差异方面发挥关键作用。JEL代码：J38、J23、J15、J31

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