Leonardo Bursztyn, Georgy Egorov, Ingar Haaland, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth
Abstract Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters’ causes can increase the public expression of dissent by providing a “social cover” for voicing otherwise stigmatized positions. Motivated by a simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals are more willing to post a tweet opposing the movement to defund the police, are seen as less prejudiced, and face lower social sanctions when their tweet implies they had first read credible scientific evidence supporting their position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate that the same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both the power of rationales and their limitations in enabling dissent and shed light on phenomena such as social movements, political correctness, propaganda, and antiminority behavior.
{"title":"Justifying Dissent","authors":"Leonardo Bursztyn, Georgy Egorov, Ingar Haaland, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjad007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters’ causes can increase the public expression of dissent by providing a “social cover” for voicing otherwise stigmatized positions. Motivated by a simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals are more willing to post a tweet opposing the movement to defund the police, are seen as less prejudiced, and face lower social sanctions when their tweet implies they had first read credible scientific evidence supporting their position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate that the same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both the power of rationales and their limitations in enabling dissent and shed light on phenomena such as social movements, political correctness, propaganda, and antiminority behavior.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136083693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Communities across the United States are reconsidering the public safety benefits of prosecuting nonviolent misdemeanor offenses, yet there is little empirical evidence to inform policy in this area. We report the first estimates of the causal effects of misdemeanor prosecution on defendants’ subsequent criminal justice involvement. We leverage the as-if random assignment of nonviolent misdemeanor cases to assistant district attorneys (ADAs) who decide whether a case should be prosecuted in the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts. These ADAs vary in the average leniency of their prosecution decisions. We find that for the marginal defendant, nonprosecution of a nonviolent misdemeanor offense leads to a 53% reduction in the likelihood of a new criminal complaint and a 60% reduction in the number of new criminal complaints over the next two years. These local average treatment effects are largest for defendants without prior criminal records, suggesting that averting criminal record acquisition is an important mechanism driving our findings. We also present evidence that a recent policy change in Suffolk County imposing a presumption of nonprosecution for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses had similar beneficial effects, decreasing the likelihood of subsequent criminal justice involvement.
{"title":"Misdemeanor Prosecution","authors":"Amanda Agan, Jennifer L Doleac, Anna Harvey","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjad005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Communities across the United States are reconsidering the public safety benefits of prosecuting nonviolent misdemeanor offenses, yet there is little empirical evidence to inform policy in this area. We report the first estimates of the causal effects of misdemeanor prosecution on defendants’ subsequent criminal justice involvement. We leverage the as-if random assignment of nonviolent misdemeanor cases to assistant district attorneys (ADAs) who decide whether a case should be prosecuted in the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts. These ADAs vary in the average leniency of their prosecution decisions. We find that for the marginal defendant, nonprosecution of a nonviolent misdemeanor offense leads to a 53% reduction in the likelihood of a new criminal complaint and a 60% reduction in the number of new criminal complaints over the next two years. These local average treatment effects are largest for defendants without prior criminal records, suggesting that averting criminal record acquisition is an important mechanism driving our findings. We also present evidence that a recent policy change in Suffolk County imposing a presumption of nonprosecution for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses had similar beneficial effects, decreasing the likelihood of subsequent criminal justice involvement.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"252 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136252900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study learning via shared news. Each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information and can share it with friends. Some friends (possibly few) share selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. Agents are aware of selective sharing and update beliefs by Bayes’s rule. Contrary to standard learning results, we show that beliefs can diverge in this environment, leading to polarization. This requires that (i) agents hold misperceptions (even minor) about friends’ sharing and (ii) information quality is sufficiently low. Polarization can worsen when agents’ friend networks expand. When the quantity of firsthand information becomes large, agents can hold opposite extreme beliefs, resulting in severe polarization. We find that news aggregators can curb polarization caused by news sharing. Our results hold without media bias or fake news, so eliminating these is not sufficient to reduce polarization. When fake news is included, it can lead to polarization but only through misperceived selective sharing. We apply our theory to shed light on the polarization of public opinion about climate change in the United States.
{"title":"Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization","authors":"Renee Bowen, Danil Dmitriev, Simone Galperti","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjac045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study learning via shared news. Each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information and can share it with friends. Some friends (possibly few) share selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. Agents are aware of selective sharing and update beliefs by Bayes’s rule. Contrary to standard learning results, we show that beliefs can diverge in this environment, leading to polarization. This requires that (i) agents hold misperceptions (even minor) about friends’ sharing and (ii) information quality is sufficiently low. Polarization can worsen when agents’ friend networks expand. When the quantity of firsthand information becomes large, agents can hold opposite extreme beliefs, resulting in severe polarization. We find that news aggregators can curb polarization caused by news sharing. Our results hold without media bias or fake news, so eliminating these is not sufficient to reduce polarization. When fake news is included, it can lead to polarization but only through misperceived selective sharing. We apply our theory to shed light on the polarization of public opinion about climate change in the United States.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136377499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, Tuan-Hwee Sng
Abstract Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that “fractured land” was responsible for China’s tendency toward political unification and Europe’s protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in Eurasia. We find that topography alone is sufficient but not necessary to explain polycentrism in Europe and unification in China. Differences in land productivity, in particular the existence of a core region of high land productivity in northern China, deliver the same result. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess how robust our findings are, and analyze the differences between theory and data in Africa and the Americas.
{"title":"The Fractured-Land Hypothesis","authors":"Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, Tuan-Hwee Sng","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjad003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that “fractured land” was responsible for China’s tendency toward political unification and Europe’s protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in Eurasia. We find that topography alone is sufficient but not necessary to explain polycentrism in Europe and unification in China. Differences in land productivity, in particular the existence of a core region of high land productivity in northern China, deliver the same result. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess how robust our findings are, and analyze the differences between theory and data in Africa and the Americas.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136377503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Market power of intermediaries contributes to the low incomes of farmers in India. I study the role of spatial competition between intermediaries in determining the prices that farmers receive in India by focusing on a law that restricts farmers to selling their goods to intermediaries in their own state. I show that the discontinuities in market power generated by the law translate into discontinuities in prices. Increasing spatial competition by one standard deviation causes prices received by farmers to increase by 6.4%. I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of bargaining and trade to shed light on spatial and aggregate implications. Estimates from the structural model suggest that removing the interstate trade restriction in India would increase competition between intermediaries. Thereby average farmer prices and their output would increase by at least 11% and 7%, respectively. The value of the national crop output would increase by at least 18%. However, there are distributional consequences as well, as some farmers stand to lose due to increased local production.
{"title":"Market Power and Spatial Competition in Rural India","authors":"Shoumitro Chatterjee","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjad004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Market power of intermediaries contributes to the low incomes of farmers in India. I study the role of spatial competition between intermediaries in determining the prices that farmers receive in India by focusing on a law that restricts farmers to selling their goods to intermediaries in their own state. I show that the discontinuities in market power generated by the law translate into discontinuities in prices. Increasing spatial competition by one standard deviation causes prices received by farmers to increase by 6.4%. I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of bargaining and trade to shed light on spatial and aggregate implications. Estimates from the structural model suggest that removing the interstate trade restriction in India would increase competition between intermediaries. Thereby average farmer prices and their output would increase by at least 11% and 7%, respectively. The value of the national crop output would increase by at least 18%. However, there are distributional consequences as well, as some farmers stand to lose due to increased local production.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"211 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136377493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tania Babina, Alex Xi He, Sabrina T Howell, Elisabeth Ruth Perlman, Joseph Staudt
Abstract This article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. We link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the U.S. Census Bureau. We focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher’s preexisting narrow field of study. Using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publications but increase patenting. The lost publications tend to be higher quality and more basic, whereas the additional patents tend to be lower quality, less general, and more often privately assigned. These federal funding cuts lead to an increase in private funding, which partially compensates for the decline in federal funding. Together with evidence from industry-university contracts, the results suggest that federal funding cuts shift university research funding from federal to private sources and lead to innovation outputs that are less openly accessible and more often appropriated by corporate funders.
{"title":"Cutting the Innovation Engine: How Federal Funding Shocks Affect University Patenting, Entrepreneurship, and Publications","authors":"Tania Babina, Alex Xi He, Sabrina T Howell, Elisabeth Ruth Perlman, Joseph Staudt","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjac046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. We link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the U.S. Census Bureau. We focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher’s preexisting narrow field of study. Using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publications but increase patenting. The lost publications tend to be higher quality and more basic, whereas the additional patents tend to be lower quality, less general, and more often privately assigned. These federal funding cuts lead to an increase in private funding, which partially compensates for the decline in federal funding. Together with evidence from industry-university contracts, the results suggest that federal funding cuts shift university research funding from federal to private sources and lead to innovation outputs that are less openly accessible and more often appropriated by corporate funders.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136377497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman
Abstract We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.
{"title":"Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment","authors":"Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjac043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac043","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135654172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mariacristina Turino, Ramon A Alvarez-Puebla, Luca Guerrini
Low molecular weight thiols (biothiols) are highly active compounds extensively involved in human physiology. Their abnormal levels have been associated with multiple diseases. In recent years, major efforts have been devoted to developing new nanosensing methods for the low cost and fast quantification of this class of analytes in minimally pre-treated samples. Herein, we present a novel strategy for engineering a highly efficient surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectroscopy platform for the dynamic sensing of biothiols. Colloidally stable silver nanoparticles clusters equipped with a specifically designed azobenzene derivative (AzoProbe) were generated as highly SERS active substrates. In the presence of small biothiols (e.g., glutathione, GSH), breakage of the AzoProbe diazo bond causes drastic spectral changes that can be quantitatively correlated with the biothiol content with a limit of detection of ca. 5 nM for GSH. An identical response was observed for other low molecular weight thiols, while larger macromolecules with free thiol groups (e.g., bovine serum albumin) do not produce distinguishable spectral alterations. This indicates the suitability of the SERS sensing platform for the selective quantification of small biothiols.
{"title":"Plasmonic Azobenzene Chemoreporter for Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering Detection of Biothiols.","authors":"Mariacristina Turino, Ramon A Alvarez-Puebla, Luca Guerrini","doi":"10.3390/bios12050267","DOIUrl":"10.3390/bios12050267","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Low molecular weight thiols (biothiols) are highly active compounds extensively involved in human physiology. Their abnormal levels have been associated with multiple diseases. In recent years, major efforts have been devoted to developing new nanosensing methods for the low cost and fast quantification of this class of analytes in minimally pre-treated samples. Herein, we present a novel strategy for engineering a highly efficient surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectroscopy platform for the dynamic sensing of biothiols. Colloidally stable silver nanoparticles clusters equipped with a specifically designed azobenzene derivative (AzoProbe) were generated as highly SERS active substrates. In the presence of small biothiols (e.g., glutathione, GSH), breakage of the AzoProbe diazo bond causes drastic spectral changes that can be quantitatively correlated with the biothiol content with a limit of detection of ca. 5 nM for GSH. An identical response was observed for other low molecular weight thiols, while larger macromolecules with free thiol groups (e.g., bovine serum albumin) do not produce distinguishable spectral alterations. This indicates the suitability of the SERS sensing platform for the selective quantification of small biothiols.</p>","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"89 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2022-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9138965/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90616881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During traffic stops, police search black and Hispanic motorists more than twice as often as white motorists, yet those searches are no more likely to yield contraband. We ask whether equalizing search rates by motorist race would reduce contraband yield. We use unique administrative data from Texas to isolate variation in search behavior across and within highway patrol troopers and find that search rates are unrelated to the proportion of searches that yield contraband. We find that troopers can equalize search rates across racial groups, maintain the status quo search rate, and increase contraband yield. Troopers appear to be limited in their ability to discern between motorists that are more or less likely to carry contraband. JEL Codes: J15, K42. ∗We thank the editors, Larry Katz and Stefanie Stantcheva, five anonymous referees, Ian Ayres, Felipe Goncalves, Peter Hull, Patrick Kline, Jonathan Leonard, David Levine, Dan O’Flaherty, Steven Rivkin, Evan Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Chris Walters, and seminar participants at USC, University of Illinois, Chicago, the Online Economics of Crime seminar, the Online Economics of Racism seminar, NBER Summer Institute, Yale SOM, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT for helpful comments. We thank researchers at the Stanford Open Policing Project for providing data on Texas Highway Patrol stops. We thank the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at Haas for providing computing resources.
{"title":"Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches have Efficiency Costs?","authors":"B. Feigenberg, Conrad Miller","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJAB018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJAB018","url":null,"abstract":"During traffic stops, police search black and Hispanic motorists more than twice as often as white motorists, yet those searches are no more likely to yield contraband. We ask whether equalizing search rates by motorist race would reduce contraband yield. We use unique administrative data from Texas to isolate variation in search behavior across and within highway patrol troopers and find that search rates are unrelated to the proportion of searches that yield contraband. We find that troopers can equalize search rates across racial groups, maintain the status quo search rate, and increase contraband yield. Troopers appear to be limited in their ability to discern between motorists that are more or less likely to carry contraband. JEL Codes: J15, K42. ∗We thank the editors, Larry Katz and Stefanie Stantcheva, five anonymous referees, Ian Ayres, Felipe Goncalves, Peter Hull, Patrick Kline, Jonathan Leonard, David Levine, Dan O’Flaherty, Steven Rivkin, Evan Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Chris Walters, and seminar participants at USC, University of Illinois, Chicago, the Online Economics of Crime seminar, the Online Economics of Racism seminar, NBER Summer Institute, Yale SOM, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT for helpful comments. We thank researchers at the Stanford Open Policing Project for providing data on Texas Highway Patrol stops. We thank the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at Haas for providing computing resources.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2021-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJAB018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45452110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unemployment insurance (UI) can affect unemployment duration and re-employment wages, through various dimensions of unemployed workers’ job search behavior. We shed light on the effects of UI on job search behavior using new longitudinal data: we link administrative registers to data from a major online search platform, and track the job applications sent over the unemployment spells of about 500,000 French workers. We identify changes in individual search behavior caused by UI around benefits exhaustion, after accounting for changes in the sample composition—i.e. dynamic selection—and for the effect of the time spent unemployed—i.e. duration dependence. We show that search effort (the count of job applications) increases by at least 50% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion and remains relatively high thereafter. The target monthly wage decreases by at least 2.4% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion, and remains relatively low thereafter. We document particularly large dynamic selection around benefits exhaustion, as some workers increase their search effort more before exhaustion and find a job faster. We also show evidence for duration dependence: workers decrease their target wage by 1.5% over each year of unemployment, irrespective of their UI status. Overall, the effect of UI on individual search behavior is consistent with the predictions of search models and constitutes evidence against search-free models where UI merely subsidizes leisure.
{"title":"Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior*","authors":"I. Marinescu, Daphné Skandalis","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjaa037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa037","url":null,"abstract":"Unemployment insurance (UI) can affect unemployment duration and re-employment wages, through various dimensions of unemployed workers’ job search behavior. We shed light on the effects of UI on job search behavior using new longitudinal data: we link administrative registers to data from a major online search platform, and track the job applications sent over the unemployment spells of about 500,000 French workers. We identify changes in individual search behavior caused by UI around benefits exhaustion, after accounting for changes in the sample composition—i.e. dynamic selection—and for the effect of the time spent unemployed—i.e. duration dependence. We show that search effort (the count of job applications) increases by at least 50% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion and remains relatively high thereafter. The target monthly wage decreases by at least 2.4% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion, and remains relatively low thereafter. We document particularly large dynamic selection around benefits exhaustion, as some workers increase their search effort more before exhaustion and find a job faster. We also show evidence for duration dependence: workers decrease their target wage by 1.5% over each year of unemployment, irrespective of their UI status. Overall, the effect of UI on individual search behavior is consistent with the predictions of search models and constitutes evidence against search-free models where UI merely subsidizes leisure.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"136 1","pages":"887-931"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2021-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qje/qjaa037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48569684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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