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Optimal Timing of Policy Announcements in Dynamic Election Campaigns* 动态选举活动中公布政策的最佳时机*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa010
Yuichiro Kamada, Takuo Sugaya
We construct a dynamic model of election campaigns. In the model, opportunities for candidates to refine/clarify their policy positions are limited and arrive stochastically along the course of the campaign until the predetermined election date. We show that this simple friction leads to rich and subtle campaign dynamics. We first demonstrate these effects in a series of canonical static models of elections that we extend to dynamic settings, including models with valence and a multi-dimensional policy space. We then present general principles that underlie the results from those models. In particular, we establish that candidates spend a long time using ambiguous language during the election campaign in equilibrium. ∗Kamada: Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, e-mail: y.cam.24@gmail.com. Sugaya: Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford, CA, 94305, e-mail: tsugaya@stanford.edu; We thank Ernesto Dal Bo, Itay Fainmesser, Drew Fudenberg, Michihiro Kandori, Akitada Kasahara, Kei Kawai, Fuhito Kojima, David Laibson, John B. Londregan, Shih-En Lu, Francisco Mart́ınez-Mora, Adam H. Meirowitz, Stephen Morris, Kristopher Ramsay, Andrzej Skrzypacz, Ken Shepsle, Yuki Takagi, Satoru Takahashi, and the seminar participants at the Harvard University Department of Economics and Department of Government, the Princeton University Department of Economics and Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, Yale University, the 21st Stony Brook International Conference on Game Theory, and the Urrutia Elejalde Workshop on Information, Dynamics and Political Decision Making for helpful comments. In addition, Steven Callander and Josh Gottlieb read through the previous versions of this paper and gave us very detailed comments, which significantly improved the paper. We also thank the careful reading and suggestions by the Editor and the referees. Judith Levi provided a superb professional editorial assistance, which again significantly improved the paper. We thank Emily Her, Douglas Hong, Omair Butt, and especially Lingxuan Wu for their excellent research assistantship. This paper subsumes and supersedes part of our unpublished working paper “Valence Candidates and Ambiguous Platforms in Policy Announcement Games” and its earlier version circulated as “Policy Announcement Game: Valence Candidates and Ambiguous Policies,” which Sugaya first presented at the 21st Stony Brook International Conference on Game Theory in 2010.
我们构建了一个动态的竞选模型。在该模型中,候选人完善/澄清其政策立场的机会是有限的,并且在竞选过程中随机到达,直到预定的选举日期。我们表明,这种简单的摩擦导致了丰富而微妙的竞选动态。我们首先在一系列规范的静态选举模型中证明了这些影响,这些模型被扩展到动态环境中,包括具有效价和多维政策空间的模型。然后,我们提出了这些模型结果的一般原则。特别是,我们确定,候选人在均衡的竞选活动中花了很长时间使用模棱两可的语言。*Kamada:加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院,邮编94720,电子邮箱:y.cam.24@gmail.com.Sugaya:斯坦福大学商学院,加利福尼亚州斯坦福,94305,电子邮件:tsugaya@stanford.edu;我们感谢Ernesto Dal Bo、Itay Fainmesser、Drew Fudenberg、Michihiro Kandori、Akitada Kasahara、Kei Kawai、Fuhito Kojima、David Laibson、John B.Londregan、Shih-En Lu、Francisco Mart́ınez-Mora、Adam H.Meirowitz、Stephen Morris、Kristopher Ramsay、Andrzej Skrzypacz、Ken Shepsle、Yuki Takagi、Satoru Takahashi、,哈佛大学经济系和政府系、普林斯顿大学经济系与政治学系、加州大学伯克利分校、耶鲁大学、第21届石溪国际博弈论会议和Urrutia Elejalde信息研讨会的与会者,动态和政治决策,以获得有用的评论。此外,Steven Callander和Josh Gottlieb通读了本文的前几个版本,并给了我们非常详细的评论,这大大改进了论文。我们也感谢编辑和裁判的仔细阅读和建议。朱迪斯·李维(Judith Levi)提供了出色的专业编辑协助,这再次显著改善了报纸。我们感谢Emily Her、Douglas Hong、Omair Butt,特别是吴凌萱的出色研究协助。本文包含并取代了我们未发表的工作论文《政策公告游戏中的价格候选人和模棱两可的平台》的一部分,以及Sugaya在2010年第21届石溪国际博弈论会议上首次发表的早期版本《政策公告博弈:价格候选人和含糊不清的政策》。
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引用次数: 6
The Effect of the Credit Crunch on Output Price Dynamics: The Corporate Inventory and Liquidity Management Channel* 信贷紧缩对产出价格动态的影响:企业库存和流动性管理渠道*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-08 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa025
Ryan Kim
I study how a credit crunch affects output price dynamics. I build a unique micro-level data set that combines scanner-level prices and quantities with producer information, including the producer’s banking relationships, inventory, and cash holdings. I exploit the Lehman Brothers failure as a quasi-experiment and find that the firms facing a negative credit supply shock decrease their output prices approximately 15% more than their unaffected counterparts. I hypothesize that such firms reduce prices to liquidate inventory and generate additional cash flow from the product market. I find strong empirical support for this hypothesis: (i) the firms that face a negative bank shock temporarily decrease their prices and inventory and increase their market share and cash holdings relative to their counterparts, and (ii) this effect is stronger for the firms and sectors with a high initial inventory or small initial cash holdings.
我研究信贷紧缩如何影响产出价格动态。我构建了一个独特的微观层面数据集,将扫描仪层面的价格和数量与生产商信息相结合,包括生产商的银行关系、库存和现金持有量。我利用雷曼兄弟的失败作为一个准实验,发现面临负信贷供应冲击的公司的产出价格比未受影响的同行下降了约15%。我假设这些公司降低价格以清算库存,并从产品市场产生额外的现金流。我发现这一假设得到了强有力的实证支持:(I)面临负面银行冲击的公司相对于同行暂时降低了价格和库存,增加了市场份额和现金持有量,(ii)这种影响对初始库存高或初始现金持有量小的公司和部门更为强烈。
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引用次数: 20
Optimal Spatial Policies, Geography, and Sorting* 最优空间策略、地理和排序*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa001
Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, C. Gaubert
We study optimal spatial policies in a quantitative trade and geography framework with spillovers and spatial sorting of heterogeneous workers. We characterize the spatial transfers that must hold in efficient allocations, as well as labor subsidies that can implement them. There exists scope for welfare-enhancing spatial policies even when spillovers are common across locations. Using data on U.S. cities and existing estimates of the spillover elasticities, we find that the U.S. economy would benefit from a reallocation of workers to currently low-wage cities. The optimal allocation features a greater share of high-skill workers in smaller cities relative to the observed allocation. Inefficient sorting may lead to substantial welfare costs.
我们研究了具有溢出效应和异质工人空间排序的量化贸易和地理框架下的最优空间政策。我们描述了必须保持有效分配的空间转移,以及可以实施这些转移的劳动力补贴。即使溢出效应在各个地区普遍存在,也存在提高福利的空间政策的空间。利用美国城市的数据和现有的溢出弹性估计,我们发现,将工人重新分配到目前的低工资城市将使美国经济受益。最优分配的特点是,与观察到的分配相比,小城市的高技能工人所占比例更大。低效的分拣可能会导致大量的福利成本。
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引用次数: 27
Choice Simplification: A Theory of Mental Budgeting and Naive Diversification* 选择简化:心理预算理论与朴素多样化*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz043
B. Kőszegi, Filip Matějka
We develop a theory of how an agent makes basic multiproduct consumption decisions in the presence of taste, consumption opportunity, and price shocks that are costly to attend to. We establish that the agent often simplifies her choices by restricting attention to a few important considerations, which depend on the decision at hand and affect her consumption patterns in specific ways. If the agent’s problem is to choose the consumption levels of many goods with different degrees of substitutability, then she may create mental budgets for more substitutable products (e.g., entertainment). In some situations, it is optimal to specify budgets in terms of consumption quantities, but when most products have an abundance of substitutes, specifying budgets in terms of nominal spending tends to be optimal. If the goods are complements, in contrast, then the agent may—consistent with naive diversification—choose a fixed, unconsidered mix of products. And if the agent’s problem is to choose one of multiple products to fulfill a given consumption need (e.g., for gasoline or a bed), then it is often optimal for her to allocate a fixed sum for the need. JEL Codes: D01, D11, D14
我们发展了一个理论,说明代理人如何在品味、消费机会和价格冲击的情况下做出基本的多产品消费决策,而这些因素需要付出高昂的代价。我们确定,代理人通常通过将注意力限制在几个重要的考虑因素上来简化她的选择,这些因素取决于手头的决定,并以特定的方式影响她的消费模式。如果代理商的问题是选择许多具有不同可替代性程度的商品的消费水平,那么她可能会为更具可替代性的产品(例如娱乐)创造心理预算。在某些情况下,根据消费量指定预算是最优的,但当大多数产品都有大量替代品时,根据名义支出指定预算往往是最优的。相反,如果商品是互补的,那么代理商可能会选择一种固定的、未经考虑的产品组合,这与天真的多样化一致。如果代理商的问题是从多种产品中选择一种来满足给定的消费需求(例如,汽油或床),那么她通常会为该需求分配固定的金额。JEL代码:D01、D11、D14
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引用次数: 41
Memory, Attention, and Choice* 记忆、注意力和选择*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-24 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa007
P. Bordalo, N. Gennaioli, A. Shleifer
Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attribution and projection biases, inattention to hidden attributes, background contrast effects, and context-dependent willingness to pay. Unifying these puzzles on the basis of selective memory and attention to surprise yields multiple new predictions.
基于教科书中对联想记忆的描述(Kahana 2012),我们提出了一个选择模型,其中选择选项暗示对类似过去经历的回忆。记忆通过两种方式影响评估和决策。首先,回忆的经历形成了一种规范,作为估值的初始锚。其次,相对于标准,显著的质量和价格意外导致估值的大幅调整。该模型结合了许多有据可查的选择谜题,包括归因和投射偏见、对隐藏属性的忽视、背景对比效应和依赖于上下文的支付意愿。在选择性记忆和对惊喜的关注的基础上,将这些谜题统一起来,会产生多种新的预测。
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引用次数: 51
Sequential Bargaining in the Field: Evidence from Millions of Online Bargaining Interactions* 现场顺序议价:来自数百万在线议价互动的证据*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-02-03 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJAA003
M. Backus, Thomas Blake, B. Larsen, S. Tadelis
We study patterns of behavior in bilateral bargaining situations using a rich, new dataset describing over 88 million listings from eBay's Best Offer platform, with back-and-forth bargaining occurring in over 25 million of these listings. We document patterns of behavior and relate them to "rational" and "psychological" theories of bargaining and find that bargaining patterns are consistent with elements of both approaches. Most notably, players with more bargaining strength typically receive better outcomes, and players exhibit equitable behavior by making offers that split-the-difference between negotiating positions. We are publicly releasing this new dataset to support additional empirical bargaining research.
我们使用一个丰富的新数据集来研究双边讨价还价情况下的行为模式,该数据集描述了eBay Best Offer平台上超过8800万件物品,其中超过2500万件物品中发生了来回讨价还价。我们记录了行为模式,并将其与议价的“理性”和“心理”理论联系起来,发现议价模式与两种方法的要素是一致的。最值得注意的是,具有更强议价能力的玩家通常会获得更好的结果,并且玩家通过在谈判立场之间提供折中方案而表现出公平的行为。我们公开发布这个新数据集,以支持额外的实证议价研究。
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引用次数: 37
The Return to Protectionism* 保护主义的回归*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJZ036
Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, P. Goldberg, P. Kennedy, A. Khandelwal
After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms that buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs. JEL Code: F1.
在支持自由贸易几十年后,2018年,美国提高了进口关税,主要贸易伙伴进行了报复。我们分析了保护主义回归对美国经济的短期影响。进口和报复性关税导致进出口大幅下降。关税所针对的进口商品价格没有下降,这意味着关税完全转嫁到含税价格。由此给美国消费者和购买进口产品的公司造成的损失为510亿美元,占GDP的0.27%。我们将估计的贸易弹性嵌入美国经济的一般均衡模型中。在计入关税收入和国内生产商收益后,实际收入损失总额为72亿美元,占GDP的0.04%。进口关税有利于集中在政治竞争县的行业,该模型表明,由于报复性关税,共和党占多数的县的可贸易行业工人受到的负面影响最大。JEL代码:F1。
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引用次数: 173
How Acquisitions Affect Firm Behavior and Performance: Evidence from the Dialysis Industry* 收购如何影响企业行为和绩效:来自透析行业的证据*
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz034
Paul J. Eliason, Benjamin Heebsh, R. McDevitt, James W. Roberts
Many industries have become increasingly concentrated through mergers and acquisitions, which in health care may have important consequences for spending and outcomes. Using a rich panel of Medicare claims data for nearly one million dialysis patients, we advance the literature on the effects of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise ways providers change their behavior following an acquisition. We base our empirical analysis on more than 1,200 acquisitions of independent dialysis facilities by large chains over a 12-year period and find that chains transfer several prominent strategies to the facilities they acquire. Most notably, acquired facilities converge to the behavior of their new parent companies by increasing patients’ doses of highly reimbursed drugs, replacing high-skill nurses with less-skilled technicians, and waitlisting fewer patients for kidney transplants. We then show that patients fare worse as a result of these changes: outcomes such as hospitalizations and mortality deteriorate, with our long panel allowing us to identify these effects from within-facility or within-patient variation around the acquisitions. Because overall Medicare spending increases at acquired facilities, mostly as a result of higher drug reimbursements, this decline in quality corresponds to a decline in value for payers. We conclude the article by considering the channels through which acquisitions produce such large changes in provider behavior and outcomes, finding that increased market power cannot explain the decline in quality. Rather, the adoption of the acquiring firm’s strategies and practices drives our main results, with greater economies of scale for drug purchasing responsible for more than half of the change in profits following an acquisition.
许多行业通过并购变得越来越集中,在医疗保健领域,并购可能会对支出和结果产生重要影响。利用近100万透析患者的丰富医疗保险索赔数据,我们通过研究供应商在收购后改变行为的确切方式,推进了关于并购影响的文献。我们的实证分析基于大型连锁店在12年内对1200多家独立透析设施的收购,发现连锁店将几个突出的战略转移到了他们收购的设施上。最值得注意的是,收购的设施通过增加患者的™ 剂量的高报销药物,用技术水平较低的技术人员取代高技能护士,等待肾移植的患者减少。然后,我们发现,由于这些变化,患者的情况更糟:住院和死亡率等结果恶化,我们的长小组使我们能够从机构内部或患者内部的采集变化中识别这些影响。由于收购设施的总体医疗保险支出增加,主要是由于药品报销增加,因此这种质量的下降与支付者的价值下降相对应。我们通过考虑收购对供应商行为和结果产生如此大变化的渠道来总结这篇文章,发现市场力量的增加并不能解释质量的下降。相反,收购公司™s的战略和实践推动了我们的主要成果,药品采购的规模经济占收购后利润变化的一半以上。
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引用次数: 22
Differences in immune responses to Haemonchus contortus infection in the susceptible Ile de France and the resistant Santa Ines sheep under different anthelmintic treatments regimens. 在不同的驱虫药治疗方案下,易感的法兰西岛绵羊和抗感的圣伊内斯绵羊对血包虫病感染的免疫反应存在差异。
IF 3.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-11-29 DOI: 10.1186/s13567-019-0722-3
Ana Cláudia A Albuquerque, Cesar Cristiano Bassetto, Fabiana A Almeida, Katie A Hildersley, Tom N McNeilly, Collette Britton, Alessandro F T Amarante

Understanding the immunological basis of resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infections in livestock is important in order to develop novel methods of parasite control such as vaccination or genetic selection for parasite resistance. The present study aimed to investigate differences in immune response between parasite resistant Santa Ines and susceptible Ile de France sheep breeds to natural Haemonchus contortus infection. Parasitological parameters, humoral immunity, local and circulating cellular immune responses were evaluated in 19 Santa Ines and 19 Ile de France lambs undergoing different anthelmintic treatments regimens: suppressive treatments (SUP) or targeted selective treatments (TST) over a 5-month grazing period. Santa Ines lambs had significantly lower Haemonchus faecal egg count and worm burden compared to Ile de France regardless of treatment regime. In addition, circulating blood eosinophils count and parasite-specific IgG levels were significantly higher and more rapidly induced in Santa Ines lambs. Abomasal immune responses were generally greater in the resistant breed, which had significantly higher levels of parasite-specific IgA in mucus, and elevated number of globule leukocytes and CD3+ T cells within the abomasal mucosal. Furthermore, numbers of POU2F3+ epithelial cells, a tuft-cell specific transcription factor, were also elevated in the Santa Ines breed, suggesting that this breed is better able to initiate T-helper type 2 immune responses within the abomasum. In conclusion, the differential immunological responses detailed here are relevant to understanding resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes in other host breeds, as well as to resistance breeding as a sustainable control approach for parasitic infections.

了解牲畜对胃肠道线虫感染产生抵抗力的免疫学基础对于开发新型寄生虫控制方法(如疫苗接种或寄生虫抵抗力基因选择)非常重要。本研究旨在调查对寄生虫有抵抗力的圣伊内斯羊和对寄生虫有敏感性的法兰西岛羊对自然感染的柯氏血吸虫的免疫反应差异。在为期 5 个月的放牧期间,对 19 只接受不同抗蠕虫药治疗方案(抑制性治疗(SUP)或靶向选择性治疗(TST))的圣伊内斯绵羊和 19 只法兰西岛绵羊的寄生虫学参数、体液免疫、局部和循环细胞免疫反应进行了评估。与法兰西岛羔羊相比,无论采用哪种治疗方案,圣伊尼斯羔羊的血吸虫粪卵计数和虫体负荷都明显较低。此外,循环血液中的嗜酸性粒细胞数量和寄生虫特异性 IgG 水平在圣伊内斯羔羊中明显更高,而且诱导速度更快。耐药品种羔羊的腹腔免疫反应普遍较强,粘液中寄生虫特异性 IgA 水平明显较高,腹腔粘膜内的球形白细胞和 CD3+ T 细胞数量也有所增加。此外,Santa Ines 品种的 POU2F3+ 上皮细胞(一种簇细胞特异性转录因子)数量也有所增加,这表明该品种能更好地在腹腔内启动 T 辅助型 2 免疫反应。总之,本文详述的不同免疫反应与了解其他宿主品种对胃肠道线虫的抗性以及将抗性育种作为一种可持续的寄生虫感染控制方法有关。
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引用次数: 0
Political Advertising and Election Results 政治广告和选举结果
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJY010
Jörg L. Spenkuch, D. Toniatti
We study the persuasive effects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy exploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach to detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns during the 2004–12 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political advertising has almost no impact on aggregate turnout. By contrast, we find a positive and economically meaningful effect of advertising on candidates’ vote shares. Taken at face value, our estimates imply that a one standard deviation increase in the partisan difference in advertising raises the partisan difference in vote shares by about 0.5 percentage points. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design suggests that advertising affects election results by altering the partisan composition of the electorate.
我们研究政治广告的说服效果。我们的经验策略利用FCC法规,导致在相邻县的边界上的印象数量的似是而非的外生变化。将此方法应用于2004-12年总统竞选期间电视广告广播和观众模式的详细数据,我们的结果表明,政治广告总量对总投票率几乎没有影响。相比之下,我们发现广告对候选人的投票份额有积极的和有经济意义的影响。从表面上看,我们的估计表明,广告中的党派差异每增加一个标准差,投票份额的党派差异就会增加约0.5个百分点。来自回归不连续设计的证据表明,广告通过改变选民的党派组成来影响选举结果。
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引用次数: 119
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Quarterly Journal of Economics
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